GLOBALIZATION PART DEUX

Vietnam and the limits of Communist friend-shoring

Opinion
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

THE TELEGRAPH
Fri, December 15, 2023

Joe Biden has sponsored Vietnam as a premier offshore hub for America’s manufacturing nexus - AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Vietnam is the friend-shoring superstar of the Far East. It has the irresistible recipe that foreign capital craves: lower wages than China, coupled with higher Pisa scores on maths and science than Iceland or Israel.

It has Communist social discipline – even the Brownian motion of its legendary scooters has a strangely beautiful order – while convincing Westerners that it is a safe commercial location if all goes wrong in the Sino-American cold war.

The president of the US Semiconductor Industry Association was in Hanoi last week singing paeans of praise, flanked by executives from Intel, Synopsys, Qualcomm, Ampere, and Marvell.

Jensen Huang, head of America’s AI chip giant Nvidia, was there too, extolling his “second homeland”. Intel runs its largest global packaging and testing plant at Saigon’s hi-tech park.

So it was a little odd to see China’s Xi Jinping in the country a few days later, literally holding hands with Vietnam’s Communist leader Nguyen Phu Trong, and together agreeing “unswervingly to follow the socialist road” and to defend party rule against all enemies.

You could call it Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy” (sturdy stems, wavy branches), a euphemism for trying to please everybody in a tricky neighbourhood. But the terms of the accord go beyond the pieties of “comrades and brothers”.

The closeness between Vietnam's Nguyen Phu Trong and Xi Jinping undermines any sense of the country's pivot toward the US - Nhac NGUYEN / POOL / AFP

“I think the Americans have been guilty of a lot of wishful thinking about how ‘pro-American’ the Vietnamese are really becoming,” said Bill Hayton, a Chatham House fellow and author of A Brief History of Vietnam: Colonialism, War and Renewal.

“The idea that Vietnam is going to break ties with Beijing and join some sort of anti-China coalition is pie in the sky. This is all about the Communist party staying in power. They see their Chinese sister party as a close friend, helping with the dark arts of social control,” he said.

The Xi-Trong agreement states that Vietnam commits to “relations with China as a top priority and strategic choice … and firmly opposes separatist activities of ‘Taiwan independence’ in any form”.

“As the world’s top two ruling Communist parties, the two parties of China and Vietnam must firmly support one another’s core interest,” it said. Furthermore, the “red flag of socialism” must prevail.

This revived solidarity follows a purge of the Vietnamese Communist party over the last year. A president and two politburo members have been sacked on corruption charges. They all came from the “pro-Western” or pragmatic wing of the party. No doubt corruption had reached toxic levels, just as it had in China before Xi launched his purges.

Officials stand accused of extorting millions of dollars from Vietnamese citizens returning home during Covid. Separately, a leaked video showed Vietnam’s security chief – not implicated in the scandal – tucking into a steak coated with gold leaf at Salt Bae’s London restaurant, reportedly costing £1,450.

But corruption charges are used selectively. M. K. Bhadrakumar, a veteran Indian diplomat, says the purge looks like cover for ideological cleansing by pro-China hardliners. The effect is to tilt the East Asian balance in favour of China and Russia at a perilous moment for the West.

Joe Biden is pressing ahead with his policy of deep rapprochement, either seeing only what he wishes to see or calculating that it is still worth pulling out all the stops to prevent Vietnam from falling back into the Chinese orbit.

He signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Vietnam’s leaders three months ago, including a deal to tap the country’s reserves of rare earth minerals. The US Geological Survey estimates that Vietnam holds a fifth of the world’s known deposits, the second largest after China.

Beijing has already restricted exports of gallium nitride, knowing that the US has no other viable source and no national stock. It is critical for advanced semiconductors, ultra-fast radar, and precision weapons. The Pentagon is now determined to stop China tightening its global lockhold on rare earth supply.

In a larger sense, Mr Biden has sponsored Vietnam as a premier offshore hub for America’s manufacturing nexus, with bilateral trade already exploding to $140bn – some of it illicit Chinese re-exports circumventing US tariffs, which Washington tolerates in pursuit of higher stakes.

Perhaps there is an element of expiation for past sins in Biden’s démarche. It was the Vietnam War, the Mai Lai massacre, and 390,000 tons of napalm that broke the (illusory) spell of American innocence, forging the political outlook of his student generation.

Vietnam’s ruling party is of course the same party that defeated half a million US troops in that terrible conflagration, all in the name of a discredited “domino theory”, or just saving face. That said, I once heard Margaret Thatcher tell a private dinner in Washington that the war had been a necessary sacrifice, buying time for the rest of Southeast Asia. This went down well. General Colin Powell (Mai Lai brigade major) smashed his fist on the table with rapture.

Beijing’s predatory policies in Vietnam’s East Sea or Biển Đông – the South China Sea to some – have gradually drawn the two enemies back into a tentative military hug.

Vietnam began to hedge its global bets when the Soviet Union collapsed. It pivoted sharply towards Washington when Russia cut off subsidies and shut its naval base at Cam Ranh Bay. Xi Jinping’s wolf warrior hubris has quickened the pace of détente.

It is taking on aspects of a military alliance. The commander of the US Pacific Fleet has met three times with his Vietnamese counterparts since August, even visiting the sanctum sanctorum of the Communist party. Except that it is not an alliance, and cannot be, under any plausible reading of the country’s history.

Vietnam in its various forms has been part of China’s Confucian sphere for two millennia, it is more “sinicised” than other parts of Southeast Asia. It has quarrelled incessantly with its regional master/protector, but has always returned to the fold.

Mr Hayton said the West is over-interpreting the apparent rift between the big and little siblings. “It is the narcissism of small differences, like the British and the French,” he said.

There is a school of thought that Xi finally realises that he blundered badly over the last five years with his iron-fist methods of coercive diplomacy – just as he blundered with his Maoist assault on China’s most dynamic companies – and is now trying to repair the damage with a charm offensive.

If so, this new subtler Xi could prove to be the real threat to the US strategic system in the Far East. America may wake up one day to find that it has diversified its technology supply lines to a manufacturing hub in Vietnam that is in reality a tributary province of the Chinese economic empire.

Barbados Prime Minister Says Britain Owes Country Nearly $5 Trillion for Slavery

Christopher Rhodes
Fri, December 15, 2023 


Britain owes Barbados $4.9 trillion, according to Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley. The comments made during a visit by Mottley to London echo earlier claims she has made and add to demands coming from various nations for Britain and other former colonial powers to make amends for centuries of imperialism, slavery and exploitation.

Mottley offered her estimate of Britain’s debt to Barbados as she gave a speech at the London School of Economics, where she once studied.

“We’re not expecting that the reparatory damages will be paid in a year, or two, or five because the extraction of wealth and the damages took place over centuries,” Mottley told her audience. “But we are demanding that we be seen and that we are heard.”


Her remarks came at an event honoring Barbados’ first poet laureate, who recited verses related to the country’s history of enslavement and imperialism as well as more recent issues like the killing of George Floyd.

“For the first time the world recognized that we could no longer ignore the trauma of four centuries of enslavement and barbarism and of denying people their humanity,” Mottley said.

The Barbados Prime Minister also acknowledged a trip that King Charles made to Rwanda in 2021 in which he expressed “personal sorrow at the suffering of so many” and pledged to learn more about “slavery’s enduring impact.”

In her remarks, Mottley said, “I want to salute the king for having the courage to understand that this is a conversation whose time has come.”

Mottley also met with former British Prime Minister David Cameron, who now serves as foreign minister, though she did not say whether they discussed the issue of reparations. Current U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has previously dismissed calls for Britain to apologize or provide compensation for its enslaving and imperialist past, saying that “trying to unpick our history is not the right way forward.”

Resistance from officials like Sunak has not stopped a growing list of leaders and countries from holding Britain and other oppressive powers accountable for their past actions. Jamaica and other Caribbean nations have publicly called for reparations from their former imperial exploiters in recent years. The British history of exploitation in Barbados is long, reflecting the extent to which the country and the region were under foreign domination or influence. Britain colonized Barbados in 1627 and imported enslaved Africans to toil on sugar plantations in the colony. Two centuries after initial colonization, Britain abolished slavery in Barbados in 1834, but the colony did not gain independence until 1966 and only left the Commonwealth of Nations in 2021. The level of damage and exploitation inflicted during this long period is extensive. As staggering as the $4.9 trillion sum presented by Mottley may be, it is significantly less than what Barbados has called for in the past; she’s previously cited a reparations figure of $24 trillion, noting a “standard definition” of the type of damage imposed by Britain.

It’s yet to be determined whether the calls from Barbados and other nations will move British officials to make stronger acknowledgments of their sordid history or give firm commitments to make amends. But Mottley’s demands, mentioned in the heart of the former colonial capital, are the latest in a growing chorus of voices that will be hard to ignore.

AI gives birth to AI: Scientists say machine intelligence now capable of replicating without humans

Jon Raasch
Fri, December 15, 2023

Artificial intelligence models can now create smaller AI systems without the help of a human, according to research published Friday by a group of scientists who said the project was the first of its kind.

Essentially, larger AI models — like the kind that power ChatGPT — can create smaller, more specific AI applications that can be used in everyday life, a collaboration between Aizip Inc. and scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and several University of California campuses demonstrated. Those specialized models could help improve hearing aids, monitor oil pipelines and track endangered species.

WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)?

Large AI models that run applications such as ChatGPT can be used to design smaller AI models, two scientists told Fox News.

"Right now, we're using bigger models to build the smaller models, like a bigger brother helping [its smaller] brother to improve. That's the first step towards a bigger job of self-evolving AI," Yan Sun, CEO of the AI tech company Aizip, told Fox News. "This is the first step in the path to show that AI models can build AI models."

Yubei Chen, one of the researchers, echoed Sun.

"The surprising thing we find is that, essentially, you can use the largest model to help you automatically design the smaller ones," said Chen, a U.C. Davis professor and Aizip co-founder. "So in the future, we believe that these, the large and the small, they will collaborate together and then build a complete intelligence ecosystem."

Models that can be spawned from AI include those capable of identifying human voices among ambient noise, monitoring pipeline data to proactively prevent integrity issues and analyzing satellite and ground-based sensor data to track wild animals, Yubei Chen, one of the researchers, told Fox News.

"Our technology is a breakthrough in the sense that for the first time, we have designed a fully automated pipeline," he said. It "can design an AI model without human intervention in the process."

"This month, we just demonstrated the first proof of concept such that one type of model can be automatically designed all the way from data generation to the model deployment and testing without human intervention," Chen continued.

Aizip has created AI systems that can be housed in a chip so small it can fit on a quarter.

One device Sun and Chen demonstrated — a human activity tracker that uses AI to gather and analyze motion data — was housed in a chip smaller than a dime.

That sensor is an example of tiny machine learning, small AI systems that can be used in compact devices or spaces. Tiny machine learning capabilities are crucial for pervasive AI, the notion that nearly any object could become intelligent, Sun said.

"If we think about ChatGPT and tiny machine learning, they are on the two extremes of the spectrum of intelligence. The large models … reside in the cloud," Chen told Fox News. "On the other hand, we are building the smallest models. They reside in things."

Home appliances such as coffee machines, ovens, dishwashers, TVs and more could all include artificial intelligence in the future, according to the study.

To watch the full interview with Sun and Chen about autonomously-designed AI, click here.

‘Potentially disastrous’ for innovation: Tech sector says EU AI Act goes too far

NOT EVERYONE AGREES

Pascale Davies
Fri, December 15, 2023


Agreed after a marathon 36-hour negotiation this month, the EU AI Act is being hailed as historic, but reactions from the continent’s tech sector, rights groups and politicians are mixed.

The European Union agreed to the world’s first set of provisional rules to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) late last Friday but the details of the legislative text are still being figured out before they are set in stone.

The rules categorise AI applications into four risk levels and impose the strictest rules on high-risk and prohibited AI.

One of the sticking points that led to negotiations was how foundation models, the technology which underpins OpenAI’s ChatGPT, would be regulated.
‘Never a good idea’

France and Germany warned against over-regulation as they wanted to protect their champion AI start-ups.

French President Emmanuel Macron delivers his speech during the 18th edition of French conference on the maritime economy in Nantes western France, Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2023 - Damien Meyer, Pool via AP

“We can decide to regulate much faster and much stronger than our major competitors. But we will regulate things that we will no longer produce or invent. This is never a good idea,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday (11 December).

“When I look at France, it is probably the first country in terms of artificial intelligence in continental Europe. We are neck and neck with the British. They will not have this regulation on foundational models. But above all, we are all very far behind the Chinese and the Americans,” he added, referring to the French AI start-up Mistral.

The EU plans to regulate foundation models by ensuring developers provide documentation that includes training methods and data. They will also be regulated by giving users the right to lodge complaints and prohibit them from discrimination.

Companies that fail to comply with the rules face fines of €35 million or 7 per cent of global revenue. Some say this goes too far.
‘Potentially disastrous consequences’

The Computer & Communications Industry Association said the text largely departs from the “sensible risk-based approach” proposed by the Commission, which prioritised innovation above overly prescriptive regulation.

The organisation said that the Act imposed “stringent obligations” on developers of cutting-edge technologies that underpin many downstream systems and is therefore likely to hinder innovation in Europe. This could lead to an exodus of AI talent, it warned.

“Regrettably speed seems to have prevailed over quality, with potentially disastrous consequences for the European economy. The negative impact could be felt far beyond the AI sector alone,” said Daniel Friedlaender, senior vice president and head of CCIA Europe.
‘Doesn’t support Europe’s champions’

France Digitale, an independent organisation which represents European start-ups and investors, said that AI in the high-risk category will have to obtain a CE mark, which is a long and costly process, which could hurt start-ups.

But the group welcomed the fact that start-ups operating in high-risk sectors can petition against the status and demonstrate that their AI is not high-risk and should be recategorised.

As for generative AI and foundation models, France Digitale said the regulation is “very strict” and could also hurt companies as they will have to disclose their private business models, which other companies could then copy.

“We called for not regulating the technology as such, but regulating the uses of the technology. The solution adopted by Europe today amounts to regulating mathematics, which doesn't make much sense,” the group said.

France Digitale also warned that the Commission can add further criteria through delegated acts, which can be risky for start-ups which “need visibility and predictability to develop their business models.”

“We can't change the rules of the game at any time,” the group said.
‘Embracing’ copyright rules

Most AI models are trained on material that is found online, which has prompted a series of copyright lawsuits by artists and the companies that represent them against the AI firms.

The Act has strict copyright rules, which include having to respect the EU’s current copyright law. Companies must also make public a summary of the content they use for training general-purpose AI models.

This transparency requirement and policy to adhere to the EU’s current rules has been welcomed by The European Authors’ Societies (GESAC), which represents 32 European author societies and more than one million authors.

“A robust implementation allowing rightsholders to properly exercise their rights under EU law is crucial to ensure that the principles agreed upon have a real impact in practice,” said Véronique Desbrosse, the association’s general manager.

“Authors’ societies look forward to embracing this new market and generating value for creators and businesses alike while contributing both to innovation and creation in Europe”.
Cybersecurity and facial recognition

The EU AI Act implements strict restrictions on facial recognition technology and other behavioural signals, barring law enforcement exceptions.

The restrictions on technology being used for facial recognition have been welcomed as have data protection rules.

While there is no specific legislation to protect data, the Act is designed to work alongside the EU’s GDPR rules, the EU’s data protection regulation.

Facial recognition technology will have strict rules - Canva

However, cybersecurity industry executive ​​Valmiki Mukherjee told Euronews Next the Act could face similar challenges to those of GDPR.

“Applying the Act to general-purpose AI systems without restricting their use by labelling them all as high-risk could be challenging,” he said.

“There’s also a potential issue of creating one large international surveillance system to prevent surveillance-based AI. It’s unclear how this will work with cybersecurity standards that are still being developed”.
‘Future-proofing a powerful technology’

While the original draft text is still being finalised, a process that some commentators say could go on until January 2024 or even beyond, there is another time pressure, the new European Parliament elections in June, which could shake things up on the items that still need to be agreed on.

The European Elections in 2024 sets a deadline for the EU AI ACT - Canva

"There doesn’t appear to be sufficient time now before the Parliament elections to get the AI Liability Directive through the legislative process, so that will have to be picked up by the new Parliament and the new Commission that it will appoint,” said Benjamin Docquir, head of IT and data, at the international legal office Osborne Clarke.

The new EU Parliament may also have to decide on legislation on AI in the workplace.

Another factor to decide will be the regulation of open-source AI software, which allows the computer code to be freely copied and reused, which gives anyone permission to build their own chatbot. OpenAI and Google have warned that open-source software can be dangerous as the technology can be used to spread disinformation.

As AI technology is developing quickly and the EU AI Act is unlikely to be enforced by EU members for another two years, the regulation could already be too old despite efforts to make it flexible.

"As to what may change in the AI Act, the legislators have endeavoured to make the AI Act flexible, but the emergence of generative AI has demonstrated the difficulty of future-proofing in relation to such a powerful technology," Docquir said.

California's only nuclear plant gets state approval for 5-year extension

Reuters
Fri, December 15, 2023 

FILE PHOTO: A flock of goats gather under a set of power lines above Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant at Avila ...


(Reuters) - California's utilities regulator on Thursday granted a five-year extension to operate Pacific Gas and Electric's Diablo Canyon power plant, the state's only nuclear facility, to avoid electricity shortages during extreme weather events.

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approved extended operations at the 2,240-megawatts Diablo Canyon plant's two reactor units until 2029 and 2030, from 2024 and 2025, respectively.

PG&E can now keep Diablo Canyon running while it awaits a renewed federal operating license, and it must also keep the terms of its $1.4 billion loan agreement with California, the CPUC said in its decision.


PG&E applied on Nov. 7 with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a license renewal, and had previously received approval to keep Diablo Canyon running during the relicensing period.

"Shortfalls could occur under climate-driven extreme events, including the extreme heat events California recently experienced in 2020 and 2022, and the risks are compounded if coincident wildfire risk reduced transmission capacity during peak events," it added.

Separately, the CPUC last month approved a 13% rate hike for PG&E, with most earmarked for wildfire mitigation.

The CPUC could not determine if Diablo Canyon's extension costs are "too high to justify" or "not cost-effective or imprudent," claiming it lacked sufficient information.

Critics of keeping open the plant, located next to the Pacific Ocean in San Luis Obispo County, say the region is vulnerable to earthquakes and that there is no permanent place for disposing of radioactive nuclear waste.

PG&E will be responsible for obtaining substitute capacity during outages, the CPUC said, adding that any excess charges collected in one year must be returned to customers over the next one.

In 2022, the Biden administration approved conditional funding of up to $1.1 billion to prevent the closure of Diablo Canyon, as part of its effort to fight climate change.

(Reporting by Deep Vakil and Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; Editing by Bill Berkrot)


California regulators vote to extend Diablo Canyon nuclear plant operations through 2030

Associated Press
Updated Thu, December 14, 2023 

This file photo shows one of Pacific Gas and Electric's Diablo Canyon Power Plant's nuclear reactors in Avila Beach, Calif. California energy regulators voted Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023, to allow the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant to operate for an additional five years, despite calls from environmental groups to shut it down. 

(AP Photo/Michael A. Mariant, File)

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (AP) — California energy regulators voted Thursday to allow the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant to operate for an additional five years, despite calls from environmental groups to shut it down.

The California Public Utilities Commission agreed to extend the shutdown date for the state's last functioning nuclear power facility through 2030 instead of closing it in 2025 as previously agreed.

Separately, the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission will consider whether to extend the plant’s operating licenses.

The twin reactors, located midway between Los Angeles and San Francisco, began operating in the mid-1980s. They supply up to 9% of the state’s electricity on any given day.

The Public Utilities Commission's decision marks the latest development in a long fight over the operation and safety of the plant, which sits on a bluff above the Pacific Ocean.

In August, a state judge rejected a lawsuit filed by Friends of the Earth that sought to block Pacific Gas & Electric, which operates the plant, from seeking to extend its operating life.

And in October, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission rejected a request from environmental groups to immediately shut down one of two reactors.

PG&E agreed in 2016 to shutter the plant by 2025, but at the direction of the state changed course and now intends to seek a longer operating run for the plant, which doesn't produce greenhouse gases that can contribute to climate change.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who once was a leading voice to close the plant, said last year that Diablo Canyon’s power is needed beyond 2025 to ward off possible blackouts as California transitions to solar and other renewable energy sources.

Activists condemned the extension and noted that the projected costs of continuing to run the aging plant are expected to top $6 billion.

“This ill-conceived decision will further escalate financial strain on California ratepayers and extend the threat of a catastrophe at Diablo Canyon,” said Ken Cook, president of the nonprofit Environmental Working Group.

“With California’s annual renewable energy additions exceeding Diablo Canyon’s output, there is zero reason to keep it running,” he added in a statement.

Healing a river with eddies of trust

the CS Monitor's Editorial Board
Fri, December 15, 2023 



The nations of the world reached a landmark accord this week to phase out the use of fossil fuels in the next quarter century. Another hard-won response to climate change reached the same day shows how they can achieve that goal.

On Wednesday, California announced a plan to cut the amount of water it draws from the Colorado River by 1.6 million acre-feet over the next three years. That is roughly equivalent to the amount of water all of Los Angeles would consume in the same period of time – and half of the combined conservation target set by the Biden administration in May for California, Nevada, and Arizona by 2026.

The California strategy taps federal support: The administration earmarked $1.2 billion to help the three states offset the costs of drawing less water from the river. But its viability rests on a different currency. Comprising 21 separate agreements with local water board and tribal authorities, the plan is a blueprint for cooperation through shared sacrifice and trust-building.

“Less than a year ago, we faced the worst possible consequences of drought and interstate conflict,” said J.B. Hamby, chair of the Colorado River Board of California. “Today, California’s agricultural, urban, and tribal users are banding together.” He called the progress “an incredible turnaround.”

Seven states and 30 tribal nations share rights to the Colorado River under a century-old compact. More than 40 million people depend on it for water, agriculture, and hydropower. Stretching from Wyoming to Mexico, it is so overtapped that it often dries up before it reaches the sea. Hotter, drier weather patterns over the past two decades have made finding a new balance among competing users an existential concern.

Resetting that balance is about more than calculating who gets less. The California plan does do that. But some of the biggest cuts in water consumption included in the plan come through voluntary agreements with communities that once fiercely resisted making concessions. The plan also recognizes the unique role of groups such as tribal nations whose water rights were long ignored. These components reflect a deliberate effort by state water officials like Mr. Hamby to do more listening than mandating.

Humanity is adapting to climate change through a restless embrace of innovation, environmental stewardship, and cooperation. “Old ways of thinking are not going to solve new problems,” Kathryn Sorensen, director of research at Arizona State University’s Kyl Center for Water Policy, told the Los Angeles Times.

The agreements reached this week underscore how trust dissolves division when cooperation is forged through humility and selflessness.

csmonitor.com

Dirtiest fuel group changes name in desperate rebrand bid: ‘Its mortality burden has been seriously underestimated’

Susan Elizabeth Turek
Fri, December 15, 2023 at 7:15 AM MST·3 min read

An organization representing the dirtiest form of energy underwent a “sustainable” rebrand prior to the 2023 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, causing some to wonder whether the latest form of deceptive advertising could set back environmental efforts.

What’s happening?

The World Coal Association, a trade body for the coal industry, has changed its name to FutureCoal: The Global Alliance for Sustainable Coal. It announced its transformed identity in Dubai the week before climate discussions were set to begin, as reported by Bloomberg.

Michelle Manook, the CEO of the newly dubbed FutureCoal, advocated for coal to be an integral part of the transition to clean energy, calling out “anti-coal sentiment” that’s “resulted in a lowering of the global coal IQ.”

The move comes after coal usage reached a record high in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency, which found that demand grew another 1.5% over the first six months of 2023.

Why is this rebrand concerning?

Our planet is warming more rapidly than at any other time in recorded history, leading to concerns about the quality and availability of major food sources and the spread of disease.

Dirty energy is the primary culprit, with more than three-quarters of heat-trapping pollution caused by the burning of coal, oil, and gas, per the U.N.

The biggest offender? Coal.

As S&P Global detailed in 2018, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change called for “a cut of 73-97% in the use of coal for primary energy by 2050” in order to limit rising temperatures to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels.

A joint study published in the peer-reviewed journal Science in November also discovered that nearly half a million deaths were linked to pollution from coal-fired power plants from 1999 to 2020, according to the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

“PM2.5 [fine particulate matter] from coal has been treated as if it’s just another air pollutant. But it’s much more harmful than we thought, and its mortality burden has been seriously underestimated,” said Lucas Henneman, the lead author of the study.

What can be done to help?

Companies and governments worldwide have been working to ensure a smooth transition to clean energy sources like solar and wind, with an eye on supporting communities that have typically been dependent on dirty energy like coal.

According to the World Economic Forum, the clean energy market is projected to create 10.3 million net new jobs by 2030, offsetting the reduction of 2.7 million jobs in the dirty energy industry.

In the meantime, it’s never too late to start the journey of education about climate issues, helping to ensure you and your loved ones are able to spot when a major rebrand isn’t necessarily all that it seems.

How immigration is dominating politics across Europe

Richard Windsor, The Week UK
Thu, December 14, 2023 

Migrants rescued near Malta.

Emmanuel Macron has suffered one of the biggest setbacks in his six years as French president after his immigration bill was thrown out of parliament without even being heard.

Macron's bill, which was intended to show he "can take tough measures on migration while keeping France’s doors open to foreign workers who can help the economy", was defeated in a preliminary vote earlier this week, said The Guardian. It was an "unprecedented show of unity" between opposing sides of parliament who came together to defeat the bill, because it proved too extreme for the left and not far-reaching enough for the right, said Gavin Mortimer in The Spectator.

But France is far from the only European government being "menaced" by the issue of migration. Like Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives, "the divisions within Macron's party have been exposed by the question" of how to deal with high levels of migration. And like the British prime minister, leaders across Europe are desperately trying to find solutions to the issue.

What are countries in Europe doing?

Many countries across Europe have tightened their border controls in the wake of growing immigration numbers. France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Norway and Sweden are among those beefing up security on certain borders, which usually allow for free, unfettered movement under the Schengen agreement.

The measures taken by Germany led to the number of illegal migrants falling "sharply" last month, said The Telegraph, with the issue one of the "fiercest public debates" currently taking place in the country. There is also a "major shift in tone" from the German government on immigration compared to the Angela Merkel era, with the Olaf Scholz-led coalition government introducing stricter measures along land borders.

There are "echoes" of the UK government's Rwanda plan in proposals made by Germany’s centre-right opposition, and Merkel's former party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is demanding a "sweeping overhaul of asylum rules", said Politico. It is suggesting asylum seekers entering Europe be "relocated to 'safe third countries'" where their applications will be processed. While the UK's Rwanda plan remains "mired in legal challenges", the German proposal would be extremely tough to implement given it would need the other EU members to agree to it.

The Italian government has meanwhile also set up a similar Rwanda-style scheme with non-EU Albania. In this instance, Albania will collect illegal migrants, men only, headed for Italy in boat crossings and process their applications at detention centres there. However, the agreement remains limited by EU law, which means only migrants picked up in non-EU waters can be processed in this manner. The policy too has been strongly criticised, with Amnesty International calling it "illegal" and "unworkable".

What is the EU doing?

The EU earlier this year signed a deal with Tunisia that it hoped would stem the flow of illegal migrants close to the source. The bloc was hoping the deal would act as a "template" that could be applied to other North African countries, said Politico, in which it would show "cash is king" in convincing these nations to help prevent illegal boat crossings.

But that deal appears to have stalled due to "escalating tensions" between Brussels and Tunisia, which handed back €60 million in funding over "dissatisfaction" with the European Commission.

Is there a long-term solution?

European leaders are united by the fear that a "botched policy on migration will cost them their jobs", said The Economist, and currently there is "little prospect for improvement" in stopping people smugglers from sending migrants to Europe. But leaders across the continent should be wary that "tomorrow it may be politely inviting in much the same people it is today letting drown", as it continues to try to tackle a Europe-wide labour shortage.

With that in mind, a "sensible remedy" to mass illegal immigration would be to "regulate and organise it", said Sylvie Kauffmann in the Financial Times. Immigration, which has consistently grown since the turn of the century, is a "global phenomenon which will not be stopped", she added, and regulating it to fill the "hard-to-fill jobs" will begin to combat the expanding issue of stagnant economic growth and an increasingly elderly population.

Migrants could 'destabilize', 'overwhelm' countries- UK PM

SOUNDING LIKE OSWALD MOSLEY; 

HE DID NOT CALL THEM VERMIN THOUGH

Reuters Videos
Updated Sat, December 16, 2023 

STORY: Speaking at a political event in Rome organized by his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni's right-wing party, Sunak said hostile powers would use illegal migration as a "weapon" to destabilize societies.

"If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most," Sunak said.

"Making that deterrent credible will mean doing things differently, breaking from consensus, and both Giorgia and I are prepared to do that."

Sunak survived a major threat to his leadership on Tuesday (December 12) when he won a vote in parliament on an emergency bill to revive his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, thwarting a rebellion from some of his lawmakers.

The UK prime minister attended the Christmas party for young conservatives called "Atreju", organised by the Brothers of Italy party.

The festival, which has been running since 1998, is named after the main character in the fantasy book and film "The Neverending Story."

Mr Sunak was expected to be accompanied by Spanish far-right Vox party leader Santiago Abascal, and Albanian at the festival in Rome.

It followed an appearance by Elon Musk at the annual event, which has been frequented by former Trump ally Steve Bannon and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban in the past.

Mr Sunak will also hold talks with the Italian and Albanian leaders, in which illegal migration is expected to top the agenda.

Downing Street said that discussions would focus on “joint efforts to tackle illegal immigration and organised crime”.

UK's Sunak warns asylum seekers could 'overwhelm' parts of Europe

Reuters
Sat, December 16, 2023 


Italy's PM Meloni meets Britain's PM Sunak in Rome

ROME (Reuters) -British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Saturday that he would push for global reforms to the asylum system and warned the threat of growing number of refugees could "overwhelm" parts of Europe.

In a speech in Italy, Sunak made some of his strongest criticisms of the global asylum system as he tries to revive his government's plans to send refugees to live in Rwanda.

Sunak made the comments at a political festival organised by the party of his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni, where he warned that some "enemies" were deliberately "driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies".


"If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most," Sunak said.

"If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, then we must do that."

Britain's former Home Secretary Suella Braverman earlier this year called for changes to United Nations Refugee Convention that obliges all signatories to grant asylum to people fleeing persecution.

The provision has been one of the biggest legal barriers to the British government's efforts to stop small boat crossings and to send would-be asylum-seekers to Rwanda for processing.

Britain and Italy announced plans on Saturday to jointly co-finance the journey home for migrants stranded in Tunisia, according to statements from both countries, but did not say how much would money was being provided.

Last month, Italy agreed with Albania to build sea migrant reception centres in Albania to host migrants trying to come ashore in an effort to try to bring down numbers that have nearly doubled in the past year.

A few days ago, Sunak survived a major threat to his leadership on Tuesday when he won a vote in parliament on an emergency bill to revive his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, seeing off a rebellion from some of his lawmakers.

(Reporting by Francesca Landini and Andrew MacAskill; editing by Clelia Oziel)

Rishi Sunak says migrants threaten to ‘overwhelm’ UK

Kate Devlin
Sat, December 16, 2023 

Rishi Sunak has warned migrants threaten to “overwhelm” countries including the UK unless radical action is taken – as he vowed to push for reforms to the global rules on refugees.

The prime minister also said that failing to tackle illegal migration would “destroy the public’s faith” in politicians and “our very systems of government” during a conference organised by the far-right Italian leader Giorgia Meloni.

In his speech in Rome, he warned that “enemy” states were deliberately “driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies”.

And he invoked Margaret Thatcher’s “radicalism” as he tried to save his controversial plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, which has come under fire from MPs on all sides of his party.

His comments appeared to echo the harder language on migration of his sacked home secretary Suella Braverman. She was condemned last year for claiming the UK faced an “invasion” on its south coast.

Critics accused him of using her “playbook” and said the Tories were in a “bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate”.

A day after a migrant died while trying to cross the English Channel, Mr Sunak also warned that “if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”

“If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that,” he added.

Government sources said this could include a host of post-war agreements such as the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the Refugee Convention, sentiments that were welcomed by Tory MPs on the right of the party.

In Italy, Mr Sunak also held talks with Ms Meloni and Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama. With the former, he agreed to jointly fund a plan to return migrants in Tunisia, just across the sea from Italy, to their home countries. In his speech, Mr Sunak said no issue required “Thatcher’s radicalism and drive” more than tackling migration.

As he praised the Italian prime minister, he said they were both “determined to break the business model” of these criminal gangs who traffic people in small boats.

Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni with Rishi Sunak as he finishes his speech in Rome on Saturday (AP)

The speech was delivered at the Atreju festival hosted by Ms Meloni’s populist Brothers of Italy party and bizarrely named after a character from the 1984 children’s fantasy film The NeverEnding Story.

To applause, Mr Sunak told the crowd that if tackling illegal migration “requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that.

“Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”

He added: “Our opponents just want to ignore this issue. They want to put their heads in the sand and hope it goes away. Well, let me tell them, it won’t.”

Mr Sunak said a lack of action would mean “our enemies will see how unable we are to deal with this and so will increasingly use migration as a weapon: deliberately driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”

Russia has already been accused by Finland of sending migrants to the European Union to destabilise the bloc.

Mr Sunak said: “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries, and our capacity to help those who need our help most.

“The costs of accommodating these people will anger our citizens, who won’t understand why their money should have to be spent on dealing with the consequences of this evil trade. It will destroy the public’s faith not just in us as politicians but in our very systems of government.”

Suella Braverman claimed in a speech earlier this year that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylum (Getty)

Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Alistair Carmichael accused Mr Sunak of using Ms Braverman’s “playbook”. He said: “Rishi Sunak is so desperate he’s reaching for the Braverman playbook, using divisive rhetoric to try to cover up his failures on asylum.Infighting within the Conservative Party is now generating a bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate.

“It is also a bit rich to say we need international cooperation when Conservative ministers are trashing the very treaties that we have signed up to to deal with this. Who would want to cooperate with a government that is happy to disregard our legal obligations? Instead of posturing, Rishi Sunak would do better to focus on tackling the asylum backlog that is leaving people in limbo and costing taxpayers billions.”

But Mr Sunak’s comments were welcomed by MPs on the right of the Tory party. Danny Kruger, the leader of the New Conservatives group, said he was “very encouraged by the PM’s speech ... suggesting an international agreement to rewrite refugee and human rights rules”.

Earlier this year, Ms Braverman, while she was still home secretary, used a widely disparaged speech in the US to warn that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylum without radical reform of global refugee rules.

She also faced a ferocious backlash after she singled out gay people to say “simply being gay, a woman or fearful of discrimination” was now effectively enough to qualify.


Illegal migrants will overwhelm Britain without global reforms, warns Sunak

Edward Malnick
Sat, December 16, 2023

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni meets Rishi Sunak at Palazzo Chigi, in Rome on Saturday - REUTERS/Remo Casilli

Rishi Sunak has pledged to push for reform of global refugee rules as he warned that failing to tackle illegal migration would “destroy the public’s faith” in politicians and governments.

In a speech in Italy, the Prime Minister said that insufficient action would lead to growing numbers which will “overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who need our help most.”

He also warned that malign states were deliberately “driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”

Mr Sunak was speaking at a festival hosted by Giorgia Meloni’s populist Brothers of Italy party in Rome, as he attempts to persuade the Conservative Right and Tory voters that his Rwanda legislation would be sufficient to start deportation flights and deter future illegal Channel crossings.

Citing a need for world leaders to apply “Thatcher’s radicalism and drive” in tackling illegal migration, Mr Sunak said that both he and Ms Meloni, the Italian prime minister, were “determined to break the business model” of these criminal gangs involved in people trafficking.


He added: “If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that.

“Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”

Mr Sunak and Ms Meloni, who has defended Britain’s deal with Rwanda, have been working together to campaign for a crackdown on illegal migration. Mr Sunak sees Rwanda-style deals to process asylum claims in third countries as key to reducing illegal arrivals, along with returns deals such as the one struck between the UK and Albania to speed up the deportation of illegal migrants.

In his speech on Saturday, Mr Sunak said: “Our opponents just want to ignore this issue. They want to put their heads in the sand and hope it goes away. Well, let me tell them, it won’t.”

Mr Sunak said that in the event of a failure to act, “our enemies will see how unable we are to deal with this and so will increasingly use migration as a weapon: deliberately driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”

Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia, has accused Moscow of deliberately sending Middle Eastern migrants into the European Union to destabilise the bloc.

Meloni and Sunak are joined by Albania's prime minister, Edy Rama - ISABELLA BONOTTO/AFP via Getty Images

Sunak praised Meloni's 'conviction and determination' as he received a warm welcome at the event - Photo by ISABELLA BONOTTO/AFP via Getty Images

In the past, Poland has accused Belarus of encouraging migrants from the Middle East and Africa to cross into Europe in revenge for Western sanctions on Alexander Lukashenko’s government.

Mr Sunak added: “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries, and our capacity to help those who need our help most.

“The costs of accommodating these people will anger our citizens, who won’t understand why their money should have to be spent on dealing with the consequences of this evil trade. It will destroy the public’s faith not just in us as politicians but in our very systems of government.”

Mr Sunak’s intervention comes after Suella Braverman, while still Home Secretary, used a speech in the US to warn that as many as 780 million people will be eligible to claim asylum without radical reform of global refugee rules.

Speaking in September, Mrs Braverman said that the threshold for asylum claims under the United Nations Refugee Convention had been lowered in the courts.

She warned that “simply being gay, a woman or fearful of discrimination” is now effectively enough to qualify for protection, with refugee rights extended to up to 780 million people.

Number 10 said that after their talks on Saturday, Mr Sunak and Ms Meloni had agreed to co-fund a project that would see the two countries “promote and assist the voluntary return” of migrants currently stuck in Tunisia.

Tunisia neighbours Italy just across the Mediterranean and attracts many migrants from several African countries who begin their journey to Europe there.


Is Rishi Sunak the right person to take on illegal immigration? Here's what Yahoo readers think

Ellen Manning
Fri, December 15, 2023

Yahoo UK's poll of the week lets you vote and indicate your strength of feeling on one of the week's hot topics. After 72 hours the poll closes and, each Friday, we'll publish and analyse the results, giving readers the chance to see how polarising a topic has become and if their view chimes with other Yahoo UK readers.

Rishi Sunak has been trying to win support for his Rwanda bill. (Getty)

After one of his most challenging weeks as prime minister, including a battle to win support from his own party for his Rwanda Bill, we asked Yahoo readers for their thoughts on Rishi Sunak and immigration.

Along with facing questions at the COVID inquiry about his role as chancellor during the pandemic, Sunak has been trying to win Tory support for the Rwanda programme and fulfil his pledge to "stop the boats". But the PM has faced a rebellion from his own MPs, with those on the right of his party saying it is not tough enough.

The Rwanda plan aims to deport asylum seekers to Kigali but has suffered a series of defeats in the courts. Its latest version went before MPs on Tuesday and while dozens of Tory MPs abstained from the vote, none voted against it, leading to its approval. However, Sunak's battle is not over, with right-wing Tory factions saying they reserved the right to vote against the draft law when it returns to the Commons next year.

Yahoo News UK asked our readers if they thought the current prime minister is the right person to tackle illegal immigration, here are the results:


Most people think Rishi Sunak isn't the right person to take on illegal immigration. (Yahoo News UK)


(Yahoo News UK)

Our poll - which ran from Monday at midday until midday Thursday - asked: 'Is Rishi Sunak the right person to take on illegal immigration?'

It received 4,096 votes and showed three-quarters of Yahoo readers think he isn't, with fewer than one in five saying he is. Some 76% of voters said no, Sunak isn't the right person to take on illegal immigration, while 18% said yes he is, and 5% did not lean either way.

Some 76% of voters said no, Sunak isn't the right person to take on illegal immigrationYahoo News UK

Yahoo News UK readers were also asked: 'How strongly do you feel about Sunak's performance on immigration?'

This poll received 2,019 votes with the most common vote being 0/10, indicating many readers were unenthusiastic about Sunak's performance on immigration. The average strength-of-feeling score on all the votes was 4.2.

The average strength-of-feeling score on all the votes was 4.2Yahoo News UK

Our original poll article can be found here

An Ipsos UK survey for the Evening Standard found that 79% of Britons believe the Conservatives are doing a bad job on immigration, with just one in 10 saying the government is doing a good job. The results were the highest and lowest respectively since the same question was first asked by Ipsos two years ago.

And as for Sunak himself, his personal popularity is definitely in the doldrums. According to a YouGov poll published earlier this week, the prime minister now has his lowest-ever net favourability score of minus 49, a ten-point drop from late November.

That's comparable to former leader Boris Johnson’s scores during his final months as prime minister.


Rishi Sunak Is Falling Short on His Five Pledges to British Voters

Alex Wickham, Philip Aldrick and Andrew Atkinson
Fri, December 15, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Rishi Sunak began 2023 asking UK voters to judge him by five pledges. As the year ends, the prime minister can only claim victory on one, leaving him an uphill battle to deliver ahead of a general election due within 14 months.

Sunak’s promises — made Jan. 4 in east London — were to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce the national debt, shrink National Health Service waiting lists and stop migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats. In a speech low on specifics, he told the public: “I fully expect you to hold my government and I to account on delivering those goals.”

Almost a year later, and with Sunak’s Conservatives languishing over 20 points behind the opposition Labour Party in national polls, only the inflation target has been met. On the promise that mattered most to voters when it was made — cutting health care waiting lists — the prime minister has headed in the wrong direction.

In January, 42% of Britons said the state of the NHS was the most important issue facing the country, according to Ipsos. Some 37% cited the economy, 36% mentioned inflation and 15% were concerned about immigration. While economic concerns have since overtaken health care, the parlous state of public services is nevertheless likely to be an electoral dragnet for the Tories.

Sunak’s goals were never intended to all be met this year, but if he’s unable to deliver in coming months, the electorate looks increasingly like complying with his instruction to hold him to account: by installing Labour leader Keir Starmer in 10 Downing Street.

Here’s Sunak’s delivery record so far:

NHS Waiting Lists: Near Record

What he said: “NHS waiting lists will fall.”

NHS England data shows waiting lists for treatment totaled 7.71 million at the end of October. While that’s slightly down from September’s record of 7.77 million, it’s up about half a million from when Sunak made his pledge.

The prime minister has sought to blame industrial action by doctors and nurses for the failure to cut waiting lists, telling reporters this week: “It’s hard to get the backlogs down when people are on strike.”

With junior doctors set to strike again this month and for a record six consecutive days in January, Sunak faces a stern test to deliver on the NHS pledge before an election, when dissatisfaction with the state of public services after 13 years of Conservative governments will likely become a key factor.

Stopping the Boats: Not Stopped

What he said: “We will pass new laws to stop the boats.”

Sunak chose to make stopping the flow of asylum seekers crossing the English channel one of his flagship policies, after more than 45,000 made the voyage last year.

He initially couched the promise as passing new laws — which he has achieved. But Downing Street shortened the promise to a pithy “stop the boats,” something the government has manifestly failed to do, with about 29,000 migrants crossing to UK shores this year. Ministers have conceded that the government will not have kept its promise until all the boats have stopped.

Furthermore, Sunak’s plan to create a deterrent by deporting migrants to Rwanda has so far failed, with the UK’s top court ruling it unlawful on human rights grounds. Further legislation designed to circumvent that ruling is working its way through Parliament, but it threatens to split his party.

Halving Inflation: Success

What he said: “We will halve inflation this year.”

When Sunak made the pledge, inflation was 10.7%. It’s now 4.6% and the Bank of England forecasts it will end the year even lower. Sunak has already declared victory on what was his top economic priority.

But his success is really the BOE’s, and meeting it hasn’t been pain-free. Interest rates were 3.5% at the start of 2023 and are now at a 15-year high of 5.25%, a pace of increase that’s hit mortgage-holders hard. Moreover, inflation remains at more than double the official 2% target and underlying domestic measures suggest it remains a threat.

Growth: Flat-Lining

What he said: “We will grow the economy.”

When Sunak made his pledge, the latest data showed the economy was shrinking and was still 0.8% smaller than before the pandemic. Both the Office for Budget Responsibility and the BOE were predicting lengthy recessions but the OBR expected growth in the final months of 2023, a forecast Sunak turned into a commitment.

Events turned out very different. The economy has been more resilient and revisions to past data showed the post-pandemic recovery was stronger than thought. However, the economy has flat-lined since last year, with minimal growth. The latest monthly data showed a surprise 0.3% contraction in October, and the 0% quarterly growth in the three months to September could be revised down at the next estimate on Dec 22.

On an annual basis, Sunak will be able to declare success on growth, as he did Thursday. “We have defied the skeptics thanks to our management of the economy,” he said. Compared with October 2022, the economy is 0.3% larger. But on a quarterly or monthly basis, the economy is now either shrinking or stagnating.

Debt: On Track

What he said: “We will make sure our national debt is falling.”

This was the most ambiguous pledge, given the government looks at debt over a medium-term horizon.

Total debt has grown to 97.8% of Gross Domestic Product from 94.8% in January. The OBR forecasts it will fall to 94.1% by 2028-29. Excluding Bank of England liabilities — the measure the government uses for its fiscal rules — debt has grown to 88.6% from 84%. It’s forecast to rise to 93.2% in 2026-27 before dipping to 92.8% in 2028-29 — just delivering on Sunak’s promise.

But the context is less gratifying because the projections assume austerity in public services outside health, education and defense, a plan think tanks have described as “implausible,” and the highest tax burden since World War II.

 Bloomberg Businessweek