It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
'Bear the burden': CEOs warn major price hikes already planned to offset Trump tariffs
Kathleen Culliton October 30, 2024 Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press at Trump Tower in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2024. REUTERS/David Dee Delgado
A slew of businesses across the U.S. say they're preparing to spike prices should former President Donald Trump regain the White House in 2025, the Washington Post reported Wednesday.
Companies that rely on foreign suppliers for baby products, auto parts and clothing — to name just a few — say the only way to survive Trump's promised tariffs on foreign imports will be to offload the cost on consumers, according to the report.
“We’re set to raise prices,” Timothy Boyle, chief executive of Columbia Sportswear, told the Post. “It’s going to be very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans." The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard
The Post reported that Trump's pledged tariffs would be the heaviest since the 1930s and could reach up to 60 percent on Chinese products.
While Trump claimed foreign companies will pay the tariffs, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency demands American purchasers pay when their products enter the country, according to the Post.
Investors in AutoZone — an auto parts retailer that sources supplies from China , India and Germany — received word this month that consumers will be asked to pay the increase, the Post reported.
“We know what the tariffs will be ,” Philip Daniele, CEO of AutoZone, reportedly said. “We generally raise prices ahead of that.”
An analysis by the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale University also contradicts Trump's claim that foreign entities will bear the financial burden of his tariffs, the Post reported.
“A consistent theoretical and empirical finding in economics is that domestic consumers and domestic firms bear the burden of a tariff, not the foreign country,” the study stated.
According to the Washington Post, Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allan told investors this year the company would likely offset tariffs with “some surgical price actions."
UAW president calls for working class unity against billionaire 'lap dog' Donald Trump
Jake Johnson, Common Dreams October 30, 2024 United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain speaks during the first day of the Democratic National Convention on August 19, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/AFP)
United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain late Tuesday called for working class unity against Republican nominee Donald Trump in the final stretch of the 2024 race, warning that the former president would serve the interests of his own class and embolden the nation's executives to intensify their decades-long war on the labor movement.
Responding to members who question why the UAW is involved in the political process at all, Fain said during a videolivestream that "we are up against a billionaire class that will not stop their attack on us at the bargaining table."
"They will not stop at the workplace, they will not stop at the border—they will take every inch we give them," said the president of the UAW, which has endorsed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. "We don't engage in political activity because we like a candidate. We don't do it for ourselves, as your union leadership. We don't do it for the Democratic or Republican parties. We engage in politics as a union because it is core to our fight for economic and social justice."
Fain said that the United States is currently trapped in a "vicious cycle" in which the "ruling class has waged a one-sided class war on the working class, and they've been winning."
"We're in a vicious cycle where the billionaire and corporate class take more and more for themselves and rewrite the rules of the game to keep it that way," said Fain. "They use their insane wealth to buy off politicians and elections. The lap dogs of the billionaires then pass more laws that restrict unions and keep working-class people down. They consolidate the fruits of our labor into the hands of Wall Street and corporate America, and that cycle goes on and on."
"It is an embarrassment to our democracy when billionaires can openly buy elections. But it's also a devastating situation for the working class."
Fain acknowledged that "it's a bipartisan issue" and that billionaires have "done everything they can to buy off both parties," characterizing the GOP as the outspoken party of big business and condemning "corporate Democrats" who "have also cozied up to the rich."
"It is an embarrassment to our democracy when billionaires can openly buy elections," said Fain. "But it's also a devastating situation for the working class."
But in the 2024 election, Fain argued, the choice is stark.
"The Democratic Party is interested in working-class people and what they have to say, and they want us to be in their coalition," said Fain. "On the other side, we have the Republicans, who—on a national level in particular—have embraced the billionaire class. They embraced their billionaire candidate, and they embrace his billionaire buddies, and they explicitly push policies that help billionaires and hurt anyone who might challenge that system."
"We can't sit this one out," the union president said. "Every organizing campaign, every contract, every grievance settlement will be impacted by this election. If the billionaires take back our presidency through their lap dog, that lap dog Donald Trump, you can be damn sure that every single CEO in this country will smell blood in the water."
Watch Fain's full remarks, which he urged union members to share with their co-workers, friends, and families:
'Fain has used the waning days of the 2024 presidential race to highlight the slew of anti-worker policies Trump pursued and implemented during his first term in the White House, including the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—a trade deal that the UAW president has called "Trump's NAFTA."
"The proof of Trump is already in the body of work," Fain said in a recent interview with The Nation. "Trump was president for four years. Auto plants were closing. He didn't do a damn thing to stop any of it, to save any of it. He didn't even make an effort to curtail any of that. He continues to tell this lie that he's fixing this and he fixed that and he's saving auto jobs and he's saving working-class jobs. But his body of work when he was president shows different. He didn't [fix things]. We lost jobs under Trump, and nothing improved with trade."
The UAW's messaging and organizing against Trump appear to have had an impact on the union's members: According to survey data released last week, Harris is leading Trump by 22 percentage points among UAW members in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
The poll found that "among those who say they have been contacted by the union," Harris' lead over Trump was 29 percentage points.
"What we do in this election matters," Fain said Tuesday, pointing to the survey results. "What we do as a union matters. When we talk to our co-workers about this election, it has an impact. When we talk to our families about this election, it has an impact. What you do in the next week matters—it matters for the next four years, it matters for your next contract negotiation, and it matters for your next organizing drive."
"For us in the UAW, it ain't about a campaign, it ain't about one day—it's about power," Fain continued. "No matter what happens in this election, we're all UAW, and we either rise together or we fall together. You can disagree with me, and you can vote however you're going to vote, but you cannot ignore our duty as a union to fight like hell for social and economic justice for every single member of this union, and every single member of the working class."
‘Take a blowtorch’: Trump cronies share how they plan to end ObamaCare
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson say they have big plans to implement "massive" changes to the entire U.S. food, drug, and health care system — from killing ObamaCare and all its protections, to handing over control of all health, food, and drug policies and agencies to conspiracy theorist and anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—and they're openly bragging about it just days before Election Day.
Republicans conspired to block every one of Barack Obama's initiatives even before the 44th President was sworn in to office in January, 2009. They have spent years promising to "repeal and replace" ObamaCare, or just end the Affordable Care Act entirely. Donald Trump for over a decade has repeatedly vowed to kill ObamaCare, and repeatedly said he would end it and unveil his new health care plan soon, before admitting during the presidential debate all he had were mere "concepts of a plan."
In September, The Washington Post reported Donald Trump "has spent 13 years promising a health-care plan" (video below).
“Health care reform’s going to be a big part of the agenda. When I say we’re going to have a very aggressive first 100 days agenda, we got a lot of things still on the table,” Speaker Johnson told an attendee at a GOP candidate's meeting, NBC News reported.
“No Obamacare?” an attendee asked.
“No Obamacare,” Johnson responded, before explaining how Donald Trump wants to "go big" in removing regulations.
“We want to take a blowtorch to the regulatory state," Johnson said, per NBC. "These agencies have been weaponized against the people, it’s crushing the free market; it’s like a boot on the neck of job creators and entrepreneurs and risk takers. And so health care is one of the sectors and we need this across the board.”
“And Trump’s going to go big. I mean, he’s only going to have one more term. Can’t run for re-election. And so he’s going to be thinking about legacy and we’re going to fix these things.”
Sunday night at Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, the ex-president promised to let RFK Jr. "go wild."
"I'm gonna let him go wild on health. I'm gonna let him go wild on the food. I'm gonna let him go wild on the medicines."
On Tuesday, RFK Jr. announced Donald Trump had "promised" to put him in charge of the entire federal public health system.
“The key that President Trump has promised me is control of the public health agencies, which are HHS and its sub-agencies, CDC, FDA, NIH, and a few others, and then also the USDA.”
House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Wednesday remarked, "House Republicans plan to kill the Affordable Care Act, impose a nationwide abortion ban and implement Trump’s Project 2025. These extremists cannot be trusted with the health, safety and economic well-being of the American people."
Last year, Forbes published what it described as "all the conspiracies" RFK Jr. promotes. Among them (quotes are Forbes's, not RFK Jr.'s):
"Covid-19 targets certain races and gives others immunity," "Mass shootings are linked to prescription drugs," "The 2004 presidential election was stolen," "The pharmaceutical industry is throwing money at Democrats," "The Covid-19 virus was genetically engineered," "Vaccines can cause autism," and, "Former White House medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci and Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates sought to exaggerate the pandemic, in part, to promote vaccines."
New York magazine's "Intelligencer" columnist Ed Kilgore reports that Speaker Johnson "plans to make repealing Obamacare an immediate priority if Trump wins and Republicans control Congress, which likely means it would be rolled into a gigantic budget-reconciliation bill and steamrolled through to passage if possible."
Kilgore adds, Johnson's "party’s designs on health-care policy are radical, meant to replace the regulations central to Obamacare’s coverage guarantees with 'free market' provisions almost certain to return the health-care system to the days when insurers aggressively discriminated against anyone old, sick, or poor. Johnson’s rhetoric will also give Democrats an opportunity to remind voters that the last 'repeal Obamacare' package aimed to decimate Medicaid, the federal-state health-care program for poor people and a key part of the country’s social safety net. Beyond that, Johnson seemed to to be telling Pennsylvanians a reelected Trump wouldn’t care if his health-care plans made Americans unhappy."
Camera trap study reveals a “vital sanctuary” for wildlife and endangered species in Cambodia’s Central Cardamom Mountains
108 species detected including Sunda pangolin, Asian elephant and Dhole, Cambodia’s last apex predators
Conservation International
image:
Camera trap footage released by Conservation International of the Endangered (IUCN Red List) Asian Elephant in the Central Cardamom Mountain Landscape of Cambodia in 2024.
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia (October 30, 2024) –The first-ever camera trap study of the Central Cardamom Mountains Landscape has recorded 108 species, 23 of which are listed at risk (Vulnerable or above) on the IUCN Red List, underscoring the significance of the region as a global stronghold for biodiversity and rare and threatened species.
Editors please note: Use these links to access camera trap footage and the full report.
The report, released today by the Cambodian Ministry of Environment (MoE), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Conservation International and partners, documents 65 bird species, 38 mammal species, and five reptile species including the Endangered dhole (Cuon alpinus), one of the last remaining predators in Cambodia, and its abundant prey base including wild pig (Sus scrofa), and northern red muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis).
The study detected other rare and elusive species including Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulasa), marbled cat (Pardofelis marmorata), Asiatic golden cat (Catopuma temminckii), sun bear (Helarctos malayanus), and Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus).
With over 95% of its forests intact, the Central Cardamom Mountains Landscape remains one of the country's least deforested areas. Recognized as one of the Global 200 ecoregions, this landscape is home to nearly 4,000 Chourng and Por Indigenous peoples, supports more than 500 species, stores a significant volume of carbon and provides a critical watershed for over 30,000 people downstream, sustaining agriculture and fisheries, including the Tonle Sap Lake, one of the world’s largest inland fisheries.
The Central Cardamom Mountains face threats from illegal logging, forest clearing for agriculture, poaching, and the unsustainable overuse of natural resources such as wood collection for charcoal, overfishing, and sand dredging.
Conservation International’s Research Lead, THAUNG Ret, said, “This survey confirms the Central Cardamoms as a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and conservation priority. While the 108 species recorded by the camera traps are impressive, they represent just a fraction of the animals present. These cameras couldn’t capture insects, canopy habitat birds, aquatic species like amphibians and fish. Extensive research is needed to truly understand the species richness and adequately conserve this treasure trove of biodiversity."
His Excellency Dr. EANG Sophalleth, Minister of Environment emphasized the importance of the habitat conservation collaboration in protecting this habitat stating, “The survey’s result reaffirm that Cambodian forests are not just a landscape, but a vital sanctuary for our planet’s diverse species. It reflects the positive result of the efforts that the Ministry of Environment has been putting through the Circular Strategy on Environment which focus on biodiversity protection and habitat restoration.”
H.E. Minister continued, “This also underlines the importance of our collaborative efforts, which are crucial to the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC)’s Pentagon Strategies and our commitment under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Protecting our biodiversity is not just an obligation as it is a testament to our dedication to sustainable development and environmental stewardship.”
The survey is the result of a collaboration between the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Legacy Landscapes Fund (LLF), Procter & Gamble Co. (P&G), Conservation International, Indigenous People and Local Communities, and other partners. It has engaged and enhanced stakeholders' understanding of the invaluable ecological services provided by the Central Cardamom Mountains Landscape, including robust biodiversity support, climate change mitigation, freshwater provision, and sustainable livelihood.
OUM Sony, Country Director of Conservation International Cambodia, stated, "The study establishes a critical baseline for future wildlife population monitoring, and also highlights the critical conservation needs of the area. Conservation International actively engages with all stakeholders to develop long-term and effective conservation strategies in the Central Cardamoms and in its supported landscapes. Our approach focuses on fostering nature-positive livelihoods, forging public-private partnerships, and utilizing blended financing tools to drive meaningful climate and conservation outcomes.”
In total, 147 camera traps were deployed which captured 55,000 videos and 22,200 images. The systematic deployment of traps provides a comprehensive dataset from February to December 2023.
USAID Mission Director Kerry PELZMAN said, “USAID’s investment in the Central Cardamom Mountains reflects our commitment to biodiversity conservation in Cambodia and recognizes the critical role of natural systems in achieving development goals. USAID is proud to support programs that both protect Cambodia’s natural resources and endangered species and also empower indigenous people and local communities to enhance their livelihoods to thrive with nature.”
CHEM Samphorn,a member of the local Tatai community who participated in the deployment of the camera traps said, “I am thrilled to be able to join the team in conserving wildlife in my homeland. I am always excited to see those animals and working together with the [Conservation International] team to safeguard them is a great incentive. I am hoping that my children and the next generation will be able to still see them the way I did.”
The species monitoring project, part of Central Cardamom Mountains Landscape Program, was largely funded by USAID through USAID Morodok Baitang, with additional co-financing from Conservation International, the Legacy Landscapes Fund and the Procter & Gamble Company and leadership provided by the Ministry of Environment.
About The Study:
The camera trap survey detected 108 species in total. A total of 147 camera traps were deployed. The survey team consisted of Conservation International biodiversity experts, rangers from the Provincial Department of Environment, Ministry of the Environment, and local communities within the landscape, who were equipped with extensive training on how to deploy camera traps and collect metadata using the digital platform, KoboCollect.
Suggested Citation: Thaung et al. (2024), Species monitoring using camera traps at the Central Cardamom Mountains Landscape. Technical Report. Conservation International Cambodia, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
About Conservation International: Conservation International protects nature for the benefit of humanity. Through science, policy, fieldwork and finance, we spotlight and secure the most important places in nature for the climate, for biodiversity and for people. With offices in 30 countries and projects in more than 100 countries, Conservation International partners with governments, companies, civil society, Indigenous peoples and local communities to help people and nature thrive together. Go to Conservation.org for more, and follow our work on Conservation News, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Instagram and YouTube.
Subject of Research
Animals
Article Publication Date
30-Oct-2024
When science speaks in extremes
Polarizing scientific information can be harmful. A study published in JCOM tries to identify it
Credit: Becker1999 from Grove City, OH https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:March_for_Science,_Washington,_DC_%2834052400162%29.jpg
“Vaccines are 100% safe, and anyone who doubts this is ignorant”: Have you ever come across messages like this during the pandemic crisis a few years ago? If you often feel that certain public debates—such as those on vaccines or the climate crisis—boil down to a black-and-white clash between two sides demanding, with harsh tones, unquestioning allegiance to their view, you're not entirely wrong. We are rightly accustomed to being warned about pseudoscientific misinformation and fake news, and much research has been devoted to identifying the characteristics of such messages in order to debunk them. Yet, even those "on the side of science" sometimes use a form of polarized communication that doesn't align with a genuinely scientific approach, which should foster critical thinking and the ability to evolve over time. A certain type of scientific message, like the example above, often amplifies these forms of polarization by reinforcing extreme viewpoints, deepening divisions between different audience segments. Therefore, it is important to recognize not only scientific misinformation but also polarized scientific information.
A new study just published in the Journal of Science Communication (JCOM) elucidated, based on available scientific literature, the characteristics of polarized scientific digital messages, proposing a system of codification for identifying and characterizing polarized discourses in science communication digital messages.
“Polarized messages in online science communication often present extreme views about a specific scientific topic, which can stir strong emotions, reinforce group loyalty, and deepen divisions in society," explains Thiago Cruvinel, professor at the University of São Paulo, Brazil, and coordinator of the research. “These polarized views can affect various social aspects. For example, to make people feel certain and comfortable, a one-sided message might use terms related to conflict or separation, even when talking about well-known scientific topics like climate change caused by humans.”
As Cruvinel explains, simplifying and polarizing scientific information is not always the best approach, as it can limit critical thinking. Presenting scientific agreement as unquestionable may unite supporters but push away skeptics, making the issue even more divisive. When one dominant view takes over, it can hold back scientific progress by discouraging people from challenging existing ideas, which is a key part of advancing science. Cruvinel and his colleagues' work mapped the scientific literature that examined the syntactic and lexical features of polarized messages in online science communication, as well as studies measuring the effects of these messages on readers' opinions, which also involved more specialized audiences like journalists, scientists, and health professionals. This scoping reviewmapped the available literature, identifying ten studies that allowed Cruvinel and his colleagues to develop a system to identify polarized scientific messages.
“Our codification system is grounded in a framework that encompasses 20 distinct codes, categorized into four key dimensions: sideness, criticism, emphasis, and discordance," explains Cruvinel. “This structured approach enables a nuanced analysis of the underlying elements contributing to polarization within scientific discourse.”
According to Cruvinel, an important contribution of this study is that this coding system can serve as a valuable tool for science researchers and journalists, supporting the systematic identification of polarized materials within the realm of science communication.
Journal
Journal of Science Communication
Method of Research
Meta-analysis
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Characterization of polarized scientific digital messages: a scoping review
Article Publication Date
28-Oct-2024
Teens who made history with Pythagoras’ theorem discovery publish their first academic paper with new proofs
In their peer-reviewed work, Calcea Johnson and Ne'Kiya Jackson present five new ways of proving Pythagoras’ Theorem via trigonometry. They also detail a new method for finding proofs that yield at least five more
Taylor & Francis Group
image:
Ne’Kiya Jackson (left) and Calcea Johnson (right).
In 2022, U.S. high school students Calcea Johnson and Ne'Kiya Jackson astonished teachers when they discovered a new way to prove Pythagoras’ theorem using trigonometry after entering a competition at their local high school. As a result, both students were awarded keys to the city of New Orleans, and even received personal praise from Michelle Obama.
Today they become published authors of a new peer-reviewed paper detailing their discoveries, published in the journal American Mathematical Monthly.
Pythagoras’ famous 2,000-year-old theorem, summarized neatly as a2+ b2= c2, means that you can work out the length of any side of a right-angled triangle as long as you know the length of the other two sides. Essentially, the square of the longest side (the hypotenuse) is equal to the squares of the two shorter sides added together.
Many mathematicians over the years have proved the theorem using algebra and geometry. Yet proving it using trigonometry was long thought impossible, as the fundamental formulae of trigonometry are based upon the assumption that the Pythagorean Theorem is true – an example of circular reasoning.
Nevertheless, both Johnson and Jackson managed to solve the math problem independently of each other and prove Pythagoras’ theory without resorting to circular reasoning — a feat that has only been managed twice previously by professional mathematicians.
Johnson and Jackson then collaborated to share their work at a regional meeting of the American Mathematical Society in Atlanta in March 2023. Encouraged by their reception, Jackson and Johnson then decided to submit their discoveries for final peer review and publication. Their study outlines five newways of proving the theorem using trigonometry, and a method that reveals five more proofs, totaling ten proofs altogether. Only one of these proofs was previously presented at the conference, meaning that nine are totally new.
“I was pretty surprised to be published” says Ne’Kiya Jackson. “I didn’t think it would go this far”.
“To have a paper published at such a young age — it's really mind blowing,” agrees Calcea Johnson.
“It’s very exciting for me, because I know when I was growing up, STEM [science, technology, engineering, and math] wasn't really a cool thing. So the fact that all these people actually are interested in STEM and mathematics really warms my heart and makes me really excited for how far STEM has come.”
In the paper, the authors argue that one of the reasons that trigonometry causes such confusion and anxiety for high school students is that two completely different versions of trigonometry exist and are defined using the same terms. This means that trying to make sense of trigonometry can be like trying to make sense of a picture where two different images have been printed on top of each other.
Jackson and Johnson argue that by separating the two versions, and focusing on just one of them, a large collection of new proofs of the Pythagorean Theorem can be found.
Jackson currently studies at Xavier University of Louisiana and is pursuing a doctoral degree in pharmacy, while Johnson is studying environmental engineering at Louisiana State University’s Roger Hadfield Ogden Honors College.
“I am very proud that we are both able to be such a positive influence in showing that young women and women of color can do these things, and to let other young women know that they are able to do whatever they want to do. So that makes me very proud to be able to be in that position,” says Johnson.
Commenting on Johnson and Jackson’s achievements, Della Dumbaugh, editor-in-chief of American Mathematical Monthly, says, “The Monthly is honored and delighted to publish the work of these two students on its pages.
“Their results call attention to the promise of the fresh perspective of students on the field. They also highlight the important role of teachers and schools in advancing the next generation of mathematicians.
“Even more, this work echoes the spirit of Benjamin Finkel when he founded the Monthly in 1894 to feature mathematics within reach of teachers and students of mathematics.”
New machine learning model can identify fake news sources more reliably
Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
BEER-SHEVA, Israel, October 28, 2024 – Fake news is a perennial problem but really begins to ramp up in election season as conspiracy theories and misinformation by bad actors aim to manipulate voters. As the US election comes down to the wire in one of the closest races yet, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev researchers have developed a method to help fact-checkers keep up with the increasing volumes of misinformation on social media.
The team led by Dr. Nir Grinberg and Prof. Rami Puzis found that tracking fake news sources, rather than individual articles or posts, with their approach can significantly lower the burden on fact-checkers and produce reliable results over time.
"The problem today with the proliferation of fake news is that fact checkers are overwhelmed. They cannot fact-check everything, but the breadth of their coverage amidst a sea of social media content and user flags is unclear. Moreover, we know little about how successful fact-checkers are in getting to the most important content to fact-check. That prompted us to develop a machine learning approach that can help fact-checkers direct their attention better and boost their productivity," explains Dr. Grinberg.
Fake news sources tend to appear and disappear quite quickly over the years, so maintaining lists of sites is very cost and labor intensive. Their system considers the flow of information on social media and the audience's “appetite” for falsehoods, which locates more sites and is more robust over time.
The researchers’ audience-based models outperformed the more common approach of looking at who’s sharing misinformation by large margins: 33% when looking at historical data, and 69% when looking at sources as they emerge over time.
The authors also show that their approach can maintain the same level of accuracy in identifying fake news sources while requiring less than a quarter of the fact-checking costs.
The system needs more training in real world scenarios, and it should never replace human fact checkers, but "it can greatly expand the coverage of today's fact checkers," says Dr. Grinberg, a member of the Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering. Prof. Puzis is a member of the same department.
And while Grinberg and his team demonstrated that this approach can help fact-checkers in their mission to ensure the integrity of our elections, the big unknown here is whether social media platforms will pick up the gauntlet here, or at least, provide the necessary means in data and access for others to combat misinformation.
The research team in this study also included: Maor Reuben of the Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering at BGU and independent researcher Lisa Friedland.
Leveraging Exposure Networks for Detecting Fake News Sources
Princeton study adds clarity to cropland abandonment discourse in biodiversity conservation
Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
The clearing of forests, grasslands, and other natural ecosystems to grow more crops is one of the most widespread threats to terrestrial biodiversity and continues to degrade ecosystems across the globe. However, changes in agricultural land use are not unidirectional: Substantial areas of cropland have also been abandoned in recent decades, especially as the agricultural labor supply continues to shrink from rural outmigration, urbanization, and geopolitical conflicts.
The impact of cropland abandonment on biodiversity has been widely debated. In some cases, abandoned croplands can offer opportunities to restore ecosystems, recover biodiversity, and sequester carbon. However, according to previous work, this largely relies on abandoned cropland being mostly undisturbed for multiple decades - a less common scenario as these lands are frequently recultivated due to the increasing demand for agricultural products. Furthermore, variation in the spatial distribution and longevity of abandonment can substantially affect biodiversity outcomes and can be especially disruptive to species with narrow habitat preferences and requirements.
For these reasons, whether or not abandonment is a meaningful conservation opportunity has remained a controversial question among environmentalists. According to a newly-released study led by Princeton researchers, the answer to this question depends not only on the distinct preferences of individual species, but also upon the rate of land recultivation and ongoing habitat loss.
In their study, Dr. Christopher Crawford, Prof. David Wilcove, and their team use high-resolution annual land-cover maps of 11 sites across four continents to assess the biodiversity consequences of cropland abandonment for the years 1987-2017. Annual maps of the vegetation at these sites were then combined with range maps and habitat preferences for over 1,300 species of birds and mammals to calculate changes in habitat area available for each species as a result of cropland abandonment.
“Without detailed abandonment maps for broad areas over long time periods, it has been really difficult to get a comprehensive picture of how abandonment was affecting biodiversity,” explains lead author Christopher Crawford, a AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellow at the United States Department of Agriculture. “By leveraging our cutting-edge abandonment maps and looking at entire communities of mammals and birds, with all of their unique preferences, we’ve been able to understand abandonment’s impacts on biodiversity in a more nuanced and detailed way than ever before.”
According to the study, most bird (62.7%) and mammal species (77.7%) gain habitat due to crop abandonment, but even more (74.2% and 86.3%, relatively) would have benefited if recultivation of the land had not occurred. Moreover, despite these gains from abandonment, 32.3% of birds and 27.8% of mammals still experienced net habitat loss when accounting for the ongoing losses of natural ecosystems to create new cropland that often occurs before or alongside abandonment.
“These findings are somewhat surprising but make perfect sense,” says co-author He Yin, an assistant professor of Geography at Kent State. “In our previous research, we noted that abandoned fields were frequently recultivated. This study helps us understand the extent to which recultivation may impact conservation efforts when abandonment is used as a strategy.”
The authors also explored ecological factors associated with species’ responses to cropland abandonment. They found that a species’ habitat preference (i.e., habitats that a species can occupy and that are suitable to meet its needs) had a significant effect on responses to abandonment. For example, the ability to occupy forest, grassland, or savanna habitats increased the odds of a species gaining habitat from abandonment, while the ability to occupy arable (i.e., cultivated) land was the strongest predictor that a species would lose habitat following abandonment. While not entirely surprising on their own, the authors note that these findings are encouraging from a conservation perspective: grassland species had the strongest association with gaining habitat gains following abandonment, despite long-standing concerns about how these species would fare following the loss of farmland.
“Ultimately, the answer to the question if abandoned fields benefit biodiversity conservation depends on the population trends of all the species in a given area, and how much habitat is available to them elsewhere,” says co-author Volker Radeloff, a professor in the SILVIS lab at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Broad-brush statements about the conservation value of abandoned fields are bound to be wrong. What is required are species-specific analyses, like the ones we conducted.”
Though the study found overall positive outcomes from cropland abandonment, the authors stress that these benefits are dampened by frequent recultivation and continued cropland expansion. Co-author David Wilcove explains the role policymakers will have to play to unlock abandonment’s full conservation potential.
“With millions of people around the world leaving rural areas to move to cities, we might expect the resulting land abandonment to provide great opportunities to restore ecosystems and biodiversity,” explains Wilcove, a professor at Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs and the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. “It can, but the benefits to nature won’t be realized if the abandoned cropland is recultivated. An important challenge for policymakers is to provide the right financial or social incentives so that abandoned, marginal croplands can regrow into natural ecosystems. At the same time, policymakers must ensure that the lands that stay in crop production produce enough food to feed a growing population.”
The paper, “Biodiversity consequences of cropland abandonment,” was co-authored by Christopher L. Crawford (Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University), R. Alex Wiebe (Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University), He Yin (Department of Geography, Kent State University), Volker C. Radeloff (SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin - Madison), and David Wilcove (Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University). The paper appeared in Nature Sustainability on October 28th, 2024. This research was supported by the High Meadows Foundation (DSW) and the NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change Program.
