Tuesday, January 07, 2025

 

AMERIKA

For many low-income single moms, government aid serves as their paid family leave, study shows



Oregon State University
Mom and baby 

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Low-income mom and child.

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Credit: Laurie Osborne Lundeberg




CORVALLIS, Ore. – The majority of low-income single mothers in Oregon who rely on federal cash assistance around the time of childbirth are in the program for less than a year, suggesting they’re using it as a form of paid family leave, Oregon State University research shows.

The first-of-its-kind study has important implications in the state, which in 2023 established a taxpayer-funded paid family leave program, and throughout the United States as poverty has a particularly high incidence among young children.

“Understanding how mothers use the TANF cash assistance program around birth has been limited by small study samples,” said David Rothwell of the OSU College of Health. “This study shows that TANF is working to support some mothers during this critical life course transition.”

One in six children under age 5 in the U.S. are poor, Rothwell notes, and more than 40% of births are financed by Medicaid, a joint federal and state program providing health coverage to low-income individuals and families.

The study melded Oregon birth data from 2016 and 2017 with participation in the Temporary Aid for Needy Families program. Each year, about 38,000 babies are born in Oregon; as is the case nationally, more than 40% of those births are funded by Medicaid.

Temporary Aid for Needy Families, commonly referred to as TANF, is administered by each state and supported in part by block grants from the Administration for Children and Families, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. States also contribute to TANF funding.

TANF is the only cash assistance program available to low-income families. In Oregon, first-time, low-income mothers become eligible for TANF in the ninth month of pregnancy, and a family can receive monthly assistance for up to five years total, with some circumstance-based extensions available.

Eligibility requirements vary significantly from state to state, and consequently, so does the percentage of poor families who receive TANF payments; the national average is 21%, Rothwell said, far below Oregon’s average of 49%.

“TANF policy in Oregon is somewhat generous, so in this way the Oregon context is like an upper bound for TANF,” said Rothwell, the Barbara E. Knudson Endowed Chair in Family Policy. “Some may look to this as an example of what TANF could be in their state. Or in some more restrictive states, they may look at the Oregon context and conclude, we never want our TANF to be that generous.”

The research, part of a longstanding partnership between Rothwell and the Oregon Department of Human Services, showed a large spike in TANF enrollment around the time of birth and, among those enrollees, a trend of short-term participation.

“We know that many women lose substantial economic resources during the transition to motherhood, and for low-income women, the loss of work and earnings throws many into or near poverty,” Rothwell said. “When you consider the high burdens associated with TANF applications and the fact that many people don’t apply because of those hassles, the study in all likelihood underestimates the need for cash assistance during this critical phase of life.”

Economic insecurity during the transition to motherhood can be detrimental to health, well-being and family relationships for both mother and child, he added.

The study was funded by the Department of Health and Human Services through its Family Self-Sufficiency and Stability Research Network. Rothwell is one of five scholars selected for the network.

Findings were published in the Journal of Marriage and Family.

A topic for future research is understanding the effect TANF and paid family leave have on each other. Rothwell said there’s significant research evidence suggesting the health, economic and social benefits of paid leave programs, and from the Oregon applicant’s perspective, paid family leave would seem to be preferable to TANF. Paid Leave Oregon replaces 100% of a minimum-wage worker’s wages for 14 weeks, but someone earning $540 weekly at her job would receive $449 monthly in TANF assistance.

“I think paid leave is more appealing than TANF for more than just the higher benefit,” Rothwell said. “While both programs place administrative burdens on applicants, I think there are fewer hurdles associated with applying for paid leave. There also isn’t a stigma attached to paid leave. It seems likely that many would-be short-term TANF users will opt for paid leave now that it’s available.”

Another issue regarding the TANF/paid leave intersection that needs examination is workforce replenishment, he added. In Oregon, for every 100 job openings, there are roughly 66 available workers, with workforce shortages particularly acute in child care, health care and manufacturing.

“Mothers who take Paid Leave Oregon will probably be more likely to return to work than those who take TANF,” Rothwell said. “It’s worth noting, though, that TANF has work requirements; you must work or have a plan to work to get the benefits – that was a big part of welfare reform in 1996. But in Oregon there is a work requirement exemption of up to six months for women who give birth.”

MERRY UKRAINIAN (ORTHODOX) XMAS

 

SLAVA UKRAINIA

What Trudeau's resignation will mean for Canada's economy

Gigi Suhanic

Mon, January 6, 2025 
FINANCIAL POST


SMUG

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces his resignation during a news conference at Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday. (Credit: DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty Images)


Justin Trudeau says he will step down as prime minister once a new leader of the Liberal Party is selected, ending months of speculation.

Gov. Gen. Mary Simon has agreed with his request to prorogue Parliament until March 24.

Questions about Trudeau’s leadership have swirled for more than a year, but reached a peak on Dec. 16 when Chrystia Freeland, his deputy prime minister and finance minister, resigned from cabinet just hours before she was to present the fiscal update.

The move escalated the political uncertainty around the country and caused the Canadian dollar to plummet below 70 cents U.S. for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.

Here’s what economists think Trudeau’s resignation will mean for the economy.
‘New wave of uncertainty:’ RSM Canada

Trudeau’s resignation “ushers in a new wave of uncertainty for the Canadian economy and financial markets,” Tu Nguyen, an economist at tax consultant RSM Canada, said in a note following the announcement.

In a sign of how the political upheaval has rattled markets, Bloomberg’s Canada Economic Policy Uncertainty Index surged to 650, its highest level ever, far outstripping its last peak posted at the start of the pandemic.

The index has typically hung around the 200 to 350 mark over the past few decades.

“The jump in uncertainty highlights the risk to the economic outlook caused by the political sector,” Nguyen said.

Political stability has attracted investors to Canada in the past, and she worries the uncertainty caused by a prorogued Parliament could discourage foreign investment.

This year was supposed to be a rebound year as inflation continues to ease and Bank of Canada interest rate cuts boost the economy. Now, that rebound could be in jeopardy, Nguyen said, at least in the short term.

“This latest bout of political instability could delay recovery as businesses could delay hiring and investments, instead adopting a wait-and-see approach,” she said.
‘Power vacuum:’ Capital Economics

The upheaval in the Liberal Party creates a “power vacuum” at a bad time as Donald Trump repeated his threat of 25 per cent tariffs on Monday and the clock ticks down to inauguration day, Stephen Brown, Capital Economics Ltd.’s assistant chief North America economist, said in a note.

But considering that Trump has publicly mocked Trudeau, Brown believes a new Conservative government in Canada led by Pierre Poilievre would stand a better chance of working with the new United States administration.

Among the Conservative policies that Brown said would resonate with Republicans are a “balanced budget rule,” a reduction in capital gains taxes and a promise to “significantly reduce” regulations that hinder business investment.

“At a time when Canada’s productivity performance has been so abysmal, we have some sympathy with the id
ea that overburdensome regulation is holding back the economy,” he said.

Federal policy ‘sea change’: Oxford Economics

Trudeau’s resignation accelerates an expected “sea change” in federal policy, making a spring election more likely, said Tony Stillo, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

He thinks the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois will press the Liberals to include their priorities in the next federal budget and use that as a jumping-off point for an election once prorogation ends on March 24.

If the Conservatives secure a majority, as recent polls suggest they will, they would have the ability to reduce the size of government, restore fiscal balance and cut taxes, he said.

Other leading priorities include axing the carbon tax and cutting immigration.

Biden says 'the world is better off' because of Trudeau

CBC
Tue, January 7, 2025 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Joe Biden take part in a meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 24, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick - image credit)

U.S. President Joe Biden has issued a glowing review of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's time in office, describing him as a man who left the world, the continent and the bilateral relationship in a better place than he found it in 2015.

Describing him as a friend, Biden said the U.S. has no closer ally and friend than Canada and "the same can be said" of Trudeau.

Biden said Trudeau was the first foreign leader he spoke with after becoming president and that he spoke with Trudeau on Monday, after Trudeau announced his resignation, to pass on his appreciation for what they accomplished by working together.

"We've tackled some of the toughest issues our nations faced in decades, from the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change to the scourge of fentanyl," Biden said.

"We've stood together with the people of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression to defend our nations' most sacred value: freedom," the outgoing president added. "We have made generational investments to strengthen our supply chains and rebuild our economies from the bottom up and middle out."

Biden said Trudeau "led with commitment, optimism and strategic vision," and that the bilateral relationship "is stronger because of him."

"The American and Canadian people are safer because of him. And the world is better off because of him," Biden said.

Biden's remarks stand in stark contrast to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's reaction to Trudeau's resignation. The incoming president used the occasion to once again suggest Canada merge with the United States.

"Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned," Trump said in a post on the Truth Social platform.

"If Canada merged with the U.S.," Trump continued, "there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!"

In his words: Justin Trudeau on his resignation as Liberal leader

Canadian Press staff
Mon, January 6, 2025 


OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday that he plans to step down as Liberal leader and prime minister once the party has chosen his replacement.

He's asked the Liberal party president to immediately begin the process of selecting a new leader and he has prorogued Parliament until March 24.

Here's Trudeau's full statement, in English:

"Every morning I've woken up as prime minister, I’ve been inspired by the resilience, the generosity and the determination of Canadians.

"It is the driving force of every single day I have the privilege of serving in this office.

"That is why, since 2015, I've fought for this country — for you — to strengthen and grow the middle class.

"Why we rallied to support each other through the pandemic, to advance reconciliation, to defend free trade on this continent, to stand strong with Ukraine and our democracy, and to fight climate change and get our economy ready for the future.

"We are at a critical moment in the world.

(Repeated in French)

"My friends, as you all know, I'm a fighter.

"Every bone in my body has always told me to fight because I care deeply about Canadians, I care deeply about this country and I will always be motivated by what is in the best interest of Canadians.

"And the fact is, despite best efforts to work through it, Parliament has been paralyzed for months after what has been the longest session of a minority Parliament in Canadian history.


"That's why this morning I advised the Governor General that we need a new session of Parliament. She has granted this request and the House will now be prorogued until March 24th.

"Over the holidays, I've also had a chance to reflect and have had long talks with my family about our future.

"Throughout the course of my career, any success I have personally achieved has been because of their support and with their encouragement.

"So last night, over dinner, I told my kids about the decision that I'm sharing with you today: I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister after the party selects its next leader through a robust, nationwide, competitive process.

"Last night, I asked the president of the Liberal party to begin that process.

"This country deserves a real choice in the next election and it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.


(Repeated in French)

"The Liberal Party of Canada is an important institution in the history of our great country and democracy.

"A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal party will carry its values and ideals into that next election.

"I'm excited to see the process unfold in the months ahead.

"We were elected for the third time in 2021 to strengthen the economy post-pandemic and advance Canada's interests in a complicated world — and that is exactly the job that I, and we, will continue to do for Canadians.

"Merci beaucoup, mes amis."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 6, 2025.

Canadian Press staff, The Canadian Press



A brief history of some of Canada's most memorable political leadership shake-ups


CBC
Tue, January 7, 2025 


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to reporters, announcing he intends to step down as Liberal Party leader, but he will stay on in his post until a replacement has been chosen, from his Rideau Cottage residence in Ottawa on Jan. 6. (Patrick Doyle/Reuters - image credit)

The federal Liberal Party faces a tumultuous start to 2025, as it scrambles to select a successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau before Canadians head to the polls later this year.

Trudeau had been under increasing pressure to clear the way for someone new, amid political gridlock, strife within the Liberal caucus and persistent polling that has put the party behind the Conservatives for more than a year.

The 53-year-old Trudeau reluctantly bowed to that pressure on Monday, announcing he'll step aside once a new Liberal leader is chosen. He also moved to prorogue Parliament while this process unfolds.

When prime ministers and premiers head for the exit, their parties have to adjust — occasionally on short notice. Canada has seen a few versions of this movie before.

After the walk in the snow

After a fabled walk in the snow, Pierre Trudeau announced on Feb. 29, 1984 that he was leaving politics after 16 years as Liberal leader — also serving, for most of that time, as prime minister.

His decision sparked a leadership contest, which allowed a familiar face to succeed him.

John Turner, a veteran Liberal who had vied for the leadership when Trudeau prevailed in 1968, got his chance to be leader the second time around.


Ottawa - June 16, 1984 - John Turner raises arms in victory after winning the Liberal leadership race.

John Turner raises his arms in victory after winning the Liberal leadership race in June of 1984. (Ron Poling/The Canadian Press)

After winning the leadership in June of 1984, Turner, 55, was sworn in, and soon called an election.

Yet the polls looked grim for the Liberals as election day neared and Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives swept to power, three months after Turner ascended to the top of the Liberal Party.

Turner would lead the Liberals for six years, including through the 1988 election — which the PCs also won.

A short tenure for Kim Campbell

While Mulroney led the federal Progressive Conservatives to back-to-back majority governments, he would eventually fall from popularity. He became prime minister at age 45, and more than eight years later, revealed he'd be making his exit.

"The time has come for me to step aside," Mulroney announced in February 1993, touting his party's efforts to tackle tough issues under his leadership, but acknowledging the PCs trailed the Liberals in the polls.

"I have done my very best for my country and my party and I look forward to the enthusiasm and renewal that only new leadership brings."

A handful of candidates sought the leadership, with Kim Campbell — an experienced politician, yet first-term MP who had served as Canada's justice minister and attorney general — emerging as the winner.


Kim Campbell, then the prime minister-designate, standing alongside then-prime minister Brian Mulroney, in Ottawa, on June 14, 1993.

Kim Campbell won the leadership contest to succeed Brian Mulroney in 1993. (Reuters)
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At 46, Campbell was sworn in as the country's first-ever female prime minister in June.

However, like John Turner before her, Campbell's term at the top of the government would be short-lived.

The October 1993 election saw the Progressive Conservatives reduced to just two seats in the House of Commons. Campbell was not among the candidates elected to Parliament.

She resigned as PC leader that December.

When announcing his retirement, Mulroney had suggested the pending election would be fought between the PCs and the Liberals, but the Tories' dismal performance at the polls actually put them in fifth place when all the votes were counted.

The Bloc Québécois formed the Official Opposition for the first time and both the Reform Party and New Democrats won more seats than the Tories did.
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Chrétien to Martin

Jean Chrétien led the federal Liberals to three straight majorities — in 1993, again in 1997 and a third time in 2000.

Yet he faced pressure to leave as far back as 2000, with some party members saying Paul Martin — Chrétien's veteran finance minister, who was first elected to Parliament in 1988 — deserved a chance to lead.

"A whisper campaign says [Martin] could quit if he isn't given a shot at the top job and soon," CBC's Susan Bonner reported in mid-March of that year, months before the 66-year-old Chrétien called a snap election that would mark his third majority victory.

The issue didn't go away and tensions remained between the two senior Liberals, but Martin hung around, eventually succeeding Chrétien, at age 65, in late 2003.

New Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin gestures as he talks to reporters during a news conference in Ottawa, December 12, 2003. Martin was sworn in as Canada's 21 Prime Minister today.

Paul Martin gestures as he talks to reporters during a news conference in Ottawa in December 2003. (Jim Young/Reuters)

In 2004, the Martin-led Liberals won a minority government, which lasted until it lost a non-confidence vote the following year. That triggered a winter election that saw the Stephen Harper-led Conservatives replace the Liberals in government.

The rise of Kathleen Wynne

Ontario Liberal Party leader Kathleen Wynne speaks at her election party headquarters in Toronto, June 12, 2014. The Liberals won a majority government.

Kathleen Wynne speaks at her election party headquarters in Toronto in June 2014 after her party wins a majority Ontario government. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

Sudden shake-ups in leadership are not confined to federal politics.

In October 2012, Ontario's then-premier Dalton McGuinty announced he would be stepping down as Liberal leader and that he would stay on until a successor was chosen. He also prorogued the legislature.

Like Justin Trudeau, the 57-year-old McGuinty had been in power for nine years at the time that he stepped down, and he also led a minority government.

Kathleen Wynne, then 59, won the ensuing leadership contest, becoming Ontario's first female premier in early 2013.

The following year, Wynne led her party to a resounding victory, winning a majority of the seats in the legislature.

The provincial Liberals' streak ended in 2018, but the party held government for 15 years between McGuinty and Wynne's combined time at the helm.

In an op-ed published in the Toronto Star on Monday, Wynne shared some perspective on circumstances that cannot be overcome in politics.

"Today is a rough day for Justin Trudeau, for his children and family and for his team," Wynne wrote.

"Those who have been cheering on his demise will have a good day, no doubt, but in my experience, it is wise to be measured in both the jubilance in victory and the despair in loss. Neither lasts forever."

Canadian Lawmaker Blasts 'Loser' Kevin O'Leary For Marching In Mar-A-Lago 'Grifters Parade'

YOU TELL 'EM CHARLIE

Ben Blanchet
Updated Sun, January 5, 2025

Canadian lawmaker Charlie Angus  (NDP Timmins) on Saturday bashed “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary after he claimed he’d meet with President-elect Donald Trump to help broker a deal to create an “economic union” between the United States and Canada.

“As Mar-a-Lago moves to Washington, we’re watching a grifters parade,” said Angus, a member of the left-leaning New Democratic Party who serves in the Canadian Parliament, in an interview with Ben Meiselas of the MeidasTouch Network.


“We’ve got loser billionaires like Kevin O’Leary coming down to talk to Trump and saying he’s going to cut a deal to sell out Canada,” he continued. “We’ve got losers on Fox talking about taking over, making us the 51st state. We all know what that’s about — this is all about diversion.”

Angus then went on to say that Trump is coming into office and bringing “maximum chaos, maximum havoc” to Americans, “so he’s looking for a punching bag.”

“And there’s these nice, quiet Canadian neighbors that they’re threatening to take over. ... But the thing is, Donald, it’s not going to work and what you’re doing is you’re creating chaos for your own people,” he added.

Angus has sharply criticized Trump’s “deranged” attacks on his country, including his threats to impose a 25% tariff on all goods entering the U.S. from Canada, him mocking Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as a “governor,” and speculating what life would be like if Canada became “our 51st state.”

In a recent op-ed for Canada’s National Observer, Angus urged the country’s politicians to stand up against Trump.

O’Leary, a native Canadian who is among the businessmen who have cozied up to Trump since his election win, baselessly claimed in a Fox Business appearance last month that at least half of Canadians are “interested” in an economic union for the two countries and “erasing” the border between them.


Just 6% of Canadians indicated that the country should join the U.S. in a survey published last month by the Angus Reid Institute, a not-for-profit public opinion research group in Canada.

In otherappearances on Fox Business, O’Leary has emphasized that Canadians don’t want to give up their sovereignty but said last month on the network that such a deal could include a common joint currency, “a couple” of seats on the Federal Reserve Board for Canadian bankers and an “EU-like passport” for the two countries.

He also said that nobody wants Trudeau to help negotiate a deal between the countries, so he wants to go to Mar-a-Lago himself to help get it done.

“I’ll start the narrative. The 41 million Canadians, I think most of them will trust me on this deal,” O’Leary said.

He told Fox Business on Friday that Trudeau and other Canadian officials who Trump recently met at Mar-a-Lago are about to be “wiped off the face of the map” in Canada’s November election and suggested that the president-elect should “wait” on moving forward with his ideas.

Angus, in his interview with Meiselas, invited O’Leary to “go to the states.”

“We’ll wrap you up in ribbons and bows and we’ll call it even because the guy’s a grifter,” he said.

Check out more of Angus’ interview on the MeidasTouch Network below.


 Canada as a 51st state? Republicans would never win another general election


THE CONVERSATION
Aaron Ettinger, Carleton University
Mon, January 6, 2025 

Since his re-election, Donald Trump has drawn plenty of attention for neo-annexationist propositions made on social media about the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada.

For a supposed anti-interventionist, it’s odd that Trump is enthusiastically embracing ideas from the era of intense American imperialism.

Maybe that’s what Trump is going for. Perhaps he is trying to revive the expansionist spirit of Theodore RooseveltWilliam McKinley and James Polk.

Canadians who paid attention to their history lessons will sense some neo-Polkism in these designs — a “54-40 or fight” call for the 21st century.
Mild responses

Not surprisingly, Trump’s annexation propositions have been rebuked from the leaders of Panama, Greenland and Canada, some more forcefully than others. Canada’s response has been mild at best.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the man Trump now routinely mocks as the governor of America’s 51st state, counter-posted a video from 2010 in which an avuncular Tom Brokaw explains Canada to Americans.

Trudeau and Canada’s cabinet ministers have also sought an audience with the president-elect at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to find away around Trump’s ruinous tariff threats, a far greater threat to Canada’s national interests than his annexation bluster.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and president-elect Donald Trump at a dinner at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. (X/@JustinTrudeau)

Some Canadians may have favourable views of the United States but vanishingly few are interested in Canada becoming a 51st state.

Still, let’s play out Trump’s hypothetical. Let’s say that Canada became the 51st state in the American union. What would be the electoral implications for the U.S.?
Democrats would benefit

Trump and his Republican Party would certainly not like the answer: the GOP might never win a national election ever again. Indeed, the “state of Canada” would profoundly alter the electoral map of American national politics, almost entirely in the Democratic Party’s favour.

To see how, consider how the 51st state would be represented in the institutions of American government.

Let’s begin in the House of Representatives because that’s where integrating Canada would be the trickiest. In the U.S., House seats are allocated on the basis of representation-by-population, which, based on the 2020 U.S. census, means one House seat for every 761,169 people.

With its population of 41 million, Canada would be apportioned about 54 seats, becoming a bigger state than California. Combine those 54 House seats with the two senators allocated to every state, and you would have an electoral powerhouse north of the 49th parallel. None of this would be good news for Republicans.

Of course, this assumes that annexation can overcome American political fights over reapportionment and redistricting, and that Canada would accept the American constitutional and legal formula for allocating seats that would whittle 338 House of Commons seats down to 54 and its 105 senators down to two. But no matter.

Most Canadians would vote Democrat


Let’s look now at how Canadians would alter American elections. Grafting Canada’s political culture onto U.S. party politics would be awkward, so let’s make another assumption. Presume that Conservative Party of Canada voters would vote Republican and left-of-Conservative voters would vote for Democrats.

Generally, this would include supporters of the Liberals, New Democrats, Greens and the Bloc Québécois.

Here’s where the 51st state becomes a big problem for Trump. Since Canada’s right-wing parties united in 2003, the Conservative Party of Canada has won an average of 35 per cent of the popular vote. Canada’s left-of-Conservative parties, on the other hand, have won an average of 63 per cent of the vote in that time period.

In American terms, that means about two-thirds of voters in the state of Canada would vote Democrat and one third would vote Republican, or 36-18 in the Democrats’ favour.

Looking back over the past quarter century, that margin would have turned every Republican House majority into a Democratic majority (except for 2010). Indeed, left-of-Conservative voters in the state of Canada would make it far more difficult for Republicans to win a House majority ever again.

In the Senate, the two-thirds of Canada’s left-of-Conservative voters would likely send a pair of Democrats to the Senate. That’s not enough to alter the balance of power, but in a world of single-digit margins of victory in the Senate, it’s not trivial. After all, every senator counts, especially for things like Supreme Court and cabinet confirmations.


Canadianizing the Electoral College

Now comes the big question: how would the state of Canada alter the Electoral College?

Each state has Electoral College votes that are the sum of their House representatives and senators. We also know (with some exceptions) that the winner of the popular vote in each state takes all of that state’s the Electoral College votes. Where would the state of Canada’s 54 Electoral College votes go?

Given Canada’s left-of-Conservative leanings, the state of Canada’s Electoral College votes would likely go to the Democrat presidential candidate every time. That would have swung two Republican presidential victories in the Democrats’ favour this century (2000 and 2004) and would have made Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024 even smaller — so small, in fact, that American electoral math in the expanded U.S. would be fundamentally changed.


So perhaps it’s time for Trump to recognize that Canada is a different country with its own history and political culture. Better yet, Trump could recognize that his churlish taunts trivialize a needless trade war that risks hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of jobs on both sides of the border.

Trump could recognize that the countries he is antagonizing are part of a strategic network of allies that sustains American power in the world. If that’s not enough for Trump to act seriously, he could at least follow his electoral instincts.



























Trudeau says 'not a snowball's chance in hell' Canada joins U.S.











CBC
Tue, January 7, 2025 

U.S. president-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday continued to threaten significant tariffs and said he would be willing to use 'economic,' rather than military force, to join Canada and the United States. (Carlos Barria/Reuters - image credit)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday dismissed U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's willingness to use "economic force" to absorb Canada into the United States by reiterating what his Canadian government has said for some time: merging countries is not in the realm of possibility.

"There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States," Trudeau wrote on X.

"Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other's biggest trading and security partner."

At a news conference earlier Tuesday, a bombastic Trump said he would consider using "economic force" to join Canada and the United States together.

"That would really be something," he said in Palm Beach, Fla.

"You get rid of the artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better national security. Don't forget: We basically protect Canada."

WATCH | 'We don't need anything they have,' Trump says of Canada:

When pressed on the issue, Trump later acknowledged he has no "right" to absorb the country into his own. Criticizing American spending on Canadian goods, he said the United States is still not obligated to support its closest neighbour economically.

Canada and the U.S. have a trillion-dollar trade relationship.

In his answer, Trump pointed to several key imports he felt Americans didn't need: including the automotive, lumber and dairy sectors. The United States imported $614.3 billion Cdn worth of goods from Canada in 2022, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and is Canada's best customer when it comes to oil and petroleum.

In only his second news conference since his election victory in November, Trump reiterated his intent to impose "substantial" tariffs on Canada and Mexico when he returns to the White House in less than two weeks.

Trump previously threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from the two neighbouring nations unless they do more to address border security.

He did not campaign on a plan to annex Canada but has spoken repeatedly in favour about Canada becoming "the 51st state."

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan.6, 2025.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces his resignation outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday. He will step down once the Liberals choose a new party leader. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

Gordon Giffin, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada, said Trump's blustering about absorbing his northern neighbour is only a negotiating strategy to add urgency to his long-standing economic grievances.

"Threatening Canada? I guess it sounded like that, but in the final analysis I think it's all about economics and I think he's had economic frustrations with respect to the North American economic experience since his first term," Giffin told CBC News Network on Tuesday.

"Whether he means some 'acquisition' of Canada by the United States by any means? I actually don't believe that."

In his own statement, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said "Canada will never be the 51st state. Period."

On X, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made his own threat against Trump.

"No Canadian wants to join you. We are proud Canadians. Proud of the way we take care of each other and defend our nation. Your attacks will hurt jobs on both sides of the border," he wrote.

"You come for Canadians' jobs, Americans will pay a price."

Trump also eyeing Panama Canal, Greenland

Though he said he was not considering military force on Canada, he remarkably did not rule out that option to have the U.S. take back control of the Panama Canal and acquire the Danish territory of Greenland.

"No, I can't assure you on either of those two. But I can say this: we need them for economic security," he said of the latter.

He said he would "tariff Denmark at a very high level" if it does not give Greenland to the U.S.

Mexican, Danish and Panamanian authorities did not immediately comment. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino has previously rejected the notion of turning the canal back to the U.S., which had owned it before handing over control to Panama in 1999.

Not a 'snowball's chance in hell' of Canada becoming 51st state: Trudeau

Kelly Geraldine Malone
Tue, January 7, 2025 
CANADIAN PRESS




WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau clapped back Tuesday at Donald Trump's escalating claims that Canada would be better off if it became the 51st state, and has called for an in-person meeting with premiers in Ottawa next week to address this country's relationship with the United States.

Trudeau and the premiers have met virtually twice since November to negotiate a response to Trump's threat to slap Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent import tariffs the day he takes office. That threat is now imminent, with inauguration day less than two weeks away and Trump insisting Tuesday in a news conference that he will follow through with the tariffs.

The Prime Minister's Office said late Tuesday Trudeau and premiers will meet in person Wednesday in Ottawa, days before that would happen.

Trump on Tuesday also repeated his insistence that Canada should join the U.S. While he suggested he would not rule out the use of military force to seize control of the Panama Canal and Greenland, saying they were vital to American security, he did not go that far with Canada. Instead he said he would rely on "economic force" to merge the two countries.

"You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security," Trump said, referring to the border between Canada and the U.S.

"And don't forget, we basically protect Canada."

Trudeau, who has until now not directly commented on Trump's repeated and escalating comments about annexing Canada, appeared to have had enough.

"There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States," Trudeau said in a statement posted to social media.

"Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partners."

Trump first quipped about Canada becoming the 51st state in November, when the prime minister and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc dined with the president-elect at Mar-a-Lago in Florida to discuss his tariff threats.

LeBlanc has repeatedly dismissed the idea as "a joke" but the government is not laughing now.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly posted on X that his comments "show a complete lack of understanding of what makes Canada a strong country."

The Liberal Party posted a map of North America on X labelling the United States and Canada as "Not the United States," with the caption: "For anyone who may be confused."

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh told Trump to "cut the crap."

"Your attacks will hurt jobs on both sides of the border," Singh posted on X. "You come for Canadians' jobs, Americans will pay a price."

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre did not mention Trump by name but said "Canada will never be the 51st state. Period." In a post on X, Poilievre said Canada is an independent country and the United States' best friend.

In a wide-ranging news conference at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, the president-elect said he will impose "substantial" tariffs on Canada and Mexico when he returns to the White House in less than two weeks.

Trump said previously he’ll slap 25 per cent duties on imports from America’s closest neighbours unless they stop the flow of illegal drugs and migrants across the border.

Trudeau and LeBlanc made a quick trip to Florida late last year to discuss the threat. A few weeks later, LeBlanc announced a series of measures to beef up border security with a $1.3-billion package. Trump has indicated he still intends to proceed with his tariff plan.

Trump mused about that meeting with Trudeau during Tuesday's news conference and claimed repeatedly that Canada is subsidized by the U.S. He said the U.S. doesn't need Canadian imports like milk, lumber and automobiles.

The president-elect also criticized Canada’s level of military funding and said he told hockey legend Wayne Gretzky to run for prime minister.

Matthew Lebo, a specialist in U.S. politics at Western University in London, Ont., said he doesn't think Trump will infringe on Canada's sovereignty by somehow forcing the two countries to merge. But the president-elect's comments show an unwillingness to understand the bilateral relationship, he added.

"Canada should be incredibly nervous that our economic health is in the hands of somebody who doesn't understand how things work," he said.

Canada is in a particularly difficult diplomatic situation after Trudeau announced Monday that he will resign his post as soon as a new Liberal leader is chosen, Lebo said.

The date for a Liberal leadership race hasn't been set. Trudeau also prorogued Parliament until March 24 and a federal election will take place later this year.

Earlier Tuesday, Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer said Trudeau had been "weak" in dealing with subsequent U.S. administrations. Singh challenged anyone running for prime minister to commit to retaliatory tariffs if Trump acts on his promises.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has warned he will retaliate if Trump follows through, suggesting the province could cut energy exports to the U.S. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said her province would not impose retaliatory tariffs on oil and gas. 

SHE CAN'T  ANYWAYS TARIFFS ARE FEDERAL JURISDICTION NOT PROVINCIAL.

In a statement late Tuesday afternoon, Smith did not directly address Trump's latest threatening comments but reiterated that Canada buys more products and services from the U.S. than any other country.

“Canada is a strong, independent nation with the ninth largest economy in the world, and our southern neighbour benefits from this economic strength," she said.

British Columbia Premier David Eby said Tuesday that the burden of confronting the tariff threat has now fallen to the premiers. He said he and his counterparts from across Canada will travel to Washington in an effort to convince the president-elect to back away from the tariff plan.

"It makes no sense to punish both Americans and Canadians to address that issue," he said. "We can do it together."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 7, 2025.

— With files from David Baxter and Kyle Duggan in Ottawa, Brenna Owen in Vancouver and The Associated Press

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press


‘A snowball’s chance in hell’: Trudeau rejects Trump threat to annex Canada

Leyland Cecco in Toronto and Oliver Holmes
Tue, January 7, 2025 
THE GUARDIAN


The prime minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, announced his resignation on Monday.Photograph: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock


Justin Trudeau has rejected threats from Donald Trump that the US could use “economic force” to annex its closest ally, saying: “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.

“Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partner,” Canada’s prime minister wrote on social media.

Trump’s musings on Tuesday came as he doubled down on threats to impose protectionist tariffs on one of the US’s biggest trading partners.

“Canada and the United States: that would be really something,” he said from Florida, but warned his incoming administration was getting frustrated over what the president-elected called “subsidies” for Canada.

“We’ve been good neighbours, but we can’t do it forever, and it’s a tremendous amount of money,” he said.

Canada’s foreign minister, Mélanie Joly, also pushed back, writing on social media that Trump’s comments showed a “complete lack of understanding of what makes Canada a strong country”. She said Canada “will never back down in the face of threats”.

The remarks are likely to further fuel political turmoil in Canada after the resignation of its prime minister, Justin Trudeau, and the suspension of parliament until late March.

The US president-elect made his comments in a meandering press conference in which he also refused to rule out using military force to retake the Panama Canal and seize Greenland, and promised to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America”.

He once again mulled a union between Canada and the US, describing their shared border, established more than 230 years ago, as an “artificially drawn line”.

Related: Trump refuses to rule out using military to take Panama Canal and Greenland

Asked if he would use military force, Trump said: “No, economic force.” He repeated his baseless claim that the US “subsidizes” Canada and said the country spends too much to defend its neighbour.

Trudeau announced on Monday he would step down after nearly 10 years in power as soon as his ruling Liberal party chooses a new leader.

Hours later, Trump revived his running jibe on social media about persuading Canada to seek US statehood.

“Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat,” the incoming president wrote.

In a stark contrast to Trump’s trolling, Joe Biden expressed his appreciation for Trudeau in a phone call late on Monday.

“Over the last decade, Prime Minister Trudeau has led with commitment, optimism, and strategic vision. The US-Canada alliance is stronger because of him. The American and Canadian people are safer because of him. And the world is better off because of him,” Biden said in a statement on Tuesday.

But the latest developments are likely to further deepen worries that a suspended parliament, a lame-duck prime minister, a Liberal leadership race and a federal election will all unfold at a time when Canada’s largest trading partner is at its most unpredictable.

Trudeau’s decision to resign has thrown open the doors to a fierce party race before a general election later this year.

Late on Monday, the former Bank of England governor Mark Carney announced that he was considering entering the race to replace Trudeau.

Related: Who could replace Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada’s Liberal party?

Carney, a climate-focused economist who became the first non-Briton to run the Bank of England, said in a statement that he would be “considering this decision closely with my family over the coming days”. A longtime and prominent member of the Liberal party, Carney said he was “encouraged” by the support of Liberal lawmakers and people “who want us to move forward with positive change and a winning economic plan”.

Speculation that Carney, who ran the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, could be seeking high office has grown over the past few months as Trudeau’s popularity plummeted amid record inflation, an acute housing crisis, high food prices and voter fatigue.

It has been more than a decade since the party last ran a federal leadership contest, with Trudeau securing a dominant win in 2013 and rebuilding the party in the years since.

The Liberal caucus will meet on Wednesday to discuss the procedure for selecting Trudeau’s replacement. The party’s constitution has a process for selecting a leader that typically takes months but there are now fewer than 80 days until parliament returns. Party brass are hopeful for a new leader by the end of January.

“It’s unfathomable to me that we can’t choose a leader of the Liberal party in a 30- to 60-day period, whereas we can choose the prime minister of Canada or the leader of the country according to the Elections Act in a 30- to 60-day period,” the immigration minister, Marc Miller, told CBC News.

Still, there are unanswered questions about who may be casting a ballot for the new leader. Trudeau’s 2013 win came after the party allowed people who had not paid for memberships to vote.

The Liberal party is in a tough position, with the opposition Conservatives expected to win a majority government under current polling. The Conservative party leader, Pierre Poilievre, has dismissed the former central banker as “Carbon Tax Carney”, a reference to a levy on consumer fuel Trudeau brought in. The Conservatives are also weighing using the tagline “Just like Justin” as an attack on the next Liberal leader in the hopes of tying any successor to the unpopularity of the prime minister.

Last week, Trudeau’s close friend and former principal secretary Gerald Butts wrote in a Substack post that allowing “a handful of apparatchiks [to] choose their prime minister” would harm the party.

“Competitions create better competitors. In politics, leadership campaigns make for better general election campaign teams. They train people, test ideas, build resilience,” he wrote.

Butts said the party’s future was at risk if it held a limited race bound by tight rules. “If Liberals arrogate that right to a few hundred people in Ottawa, I hope they’re alert to the risk that they could be selecting the party’s last leader.”

A poll by the Angus Reid Institute on Friday, before Trudeau’s announcement, found Carney was in second place among candidates likely to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader. The former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, whose resignation last month increased calls for Trudeau to go, was top.

If he were to win the leadership race, Carney would be in the unusual situation of becoming prime minister without holding a seat in the House of Commons. Party leaders are not required to be members of parliament when they win, but convention requires they run for a seat as quickly as possible. It took Jagmeet Singh 16 months to become an MP after winning the leadership of the New Democratic party.

With a spring election widely expected, the new Liberal leader will only hold the post of prime minister for a handful of months before the country votes.




  




















BYE, BYE CABLE TV NEWS

Anchors Away: TV-News Veterans Exit Ahead of Ratings Challenges, Digital Change in 2025

Brian Steinberg
Mon, January 6, 2025 
VARIETY



For TV-news outlets, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of out with the old and in with the….who?

With the economics of newsgathering less certain as info-hounds move to streaming and social media for their early facts, traditional TV-news venues have been parting ways with veteran anchors and correspondents. Whether the decisions are mutual or unilateral, amicable or adverse, they will leave places such as NBC News, MSNBC, Fox News, CBS News and CNN with fewer of some of their most recognizable faces at a point in the business cycle when viewership tends to narrow.

More from Variety

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Hoda Kotb is taking a final lap this week at NBC’s “Today,” after deciding to leave the show and spend more time with her young children. Andrea Mitchell will this month sign off from the MSNBC program she has anchored since 2008, opting to work her reporting roles more heavily. Norah O’Donnell will leave “CBS Evening News” at about the same time and take on a new special correspondent role. Jeff Glor, a central part of CBS News’ Saturday-morning program, left the network in September amid layoffs. Before the end of 2024, CNN bid farewell to both Chris Wallace and Alisyn Camerota. Fox News’ Neil Cavuto, one of the few anchors whose time at the Fox Corp. owned outlet dates to its 1996 launch, said in late December he was leaving.

All these exits take place amid a not-so-gradual shrinking of the TV-news sector. CBS News, ABC News, NBC News, CNN and CNBC all shed staffers last year, and the fiscal terrain is likely to be just as challenging in months ahead — if not more so. News audiences typically dwindle after a presidential election cycle.

Already, 2025 projections from market-research firm Kagan, part of S&P Global Intelligence, call for declines in advertising and subscriptions at all three mainstay cable-news outlets. Ad sales at Fox News Channel are seen dipping to approximately $1.01 billion from $1.03 billion in 2024; to nearly $568.9 million at MSNBC from $639.6 million last year; and to about $499.1 million at CNN from $563.9 million. Each of the three is also projected to lose about 3 million subscribers over the next 12 months, according to the Kagan data.

Last year was supposed to be a watermark in the business, with interest in the 2024 presidential election fueling ratings, which in turn generate new ad dollars. Indeed, primetime ratings surged for all three cable-news outlets over the year, with the number of viewers between 25 and 54 — the demographic coveted most by advertisers — up 40% at Fox News,17% at CNN and 9% at MSNBC.

Of course, that was then.

Since the election, CNN and MSNBC have suffered notable ratings declines. According to Nielsen, MSNBC lost 65% of its primetime audience in the 25-to-54 demographic between the election and the end of 2024. CNN lost 57%. Fox News in December captured about 71% of the overall audience still turning in to any of the three outlets. Executives and producers at CNN and MSNBC remain optimistic that audiences will return following the second inauguration of President Donald Trump, and some hold out hope to attract more viewers via digital platforms.

The future, however, is foggy. Many of the corporations that support the aforementioned news divisions face existential dilemmas. Paramount Global, parent of CBS News, is about to be acquired by Skydance Media, which has vowed to cut another $1.5 billion in costs off the company’s balance sheet — following $500 million in cuts that have already taken place. Warner Bros. Discovery, parent of CNN, is restructuring itself so that its cable networks are housed in a separate division from its production studios and streaming platforms. Many on Wall Street see the maneuver as one that could set up its TV networks for potential sale. What’s more, CNN this week goes on trial in a defamation suit that has a plaintiff seeking $1 billion after a 2021 report on the network questioned the activities of a security consultant aiding people who wanted to escape Afghanistan.

The news assets of NBCUniversal are navigating through an uncertain time as parent Comcast spins off the bulk of its cable networks, separating MSNBC and CNBC from NBC News. Disney’s commitment to ABC News has come under scrutiny after the company agreed to pay a settlement of $15 million to Donald Trump’s presidential library after anchor George Stephanopoulos asserted incorrectly in March on air that Trump had been found liable in a court case for raping writer E. Jean Carroll.

Fox Corp., which sold off many of its cable and entertainment assets to Disney in 2019, has fared better than many of its competitors in recent years, but it faces challenges as well. The company’s controlling Murdoch family is at odds about how Fox and sister News Corp. will be governed should founder Rupert Murdoch, 93, die. And its Fox News unit is expected to face a defamation lawsuit as soon as this year levied by voting-technology firm Smartmatic that seeks $2 billion for debunked claims aired on the network about that company’s role in rigging the 2020 presidential election, which was conducted legally and without interference.

Perhaps those pressures clamp down on any desire to make startling hires to replace those who are departing. At CBS, John Dickerson and Maurice DuBois, veterans themselves, will helm a retooled “Evening News” that may closely resemble a local broadcast. NBC News will next week elevate Craig Melvin, a regular morning presence at “Today,” to replace Kotb during the show’s first two hours. Fox News, MSNBC and CNN are widely expected to rely at present on current staffers to fill vacancies made by the exits of Wallace, Mitchell and Cavuto, according to people familiar with each situation.

Veterans, with their entrenched ways of working and their higher-than-median salaries, seem like an obvious element for cost-cutting. In some cases, they have become so familiar over the years that viewers take them for granted, and they no longer generate the best ratings in their time periods. Little wonder, then, that so many have announced departures in recent weeks.

And yet, these well-known anchors still have connections to an audience. Some of them still have enough of a recognition factor to develop their own communities. Wallace, Cavuto and Camerota, have, for example, suggested that they have new chapters to explore. None of them will capture, most likely, the large simultaneous crowds that tune into their previous employers. But they won’t have to in order to be successful.

They need only generate enough ad and subscription revenue to feed a small online venture — not so hard to accomplish in an era of YouTube channels and Substack newsletters. Former colleagues like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Don Lemon have already dipped their toes into such waters.

TV-news mainstays have little to fear from any single departure. Stack up enough of them over time, however, and they may be looking at damage by a thousand cuts. Some of those well-worn anchors, as things turn out, may have a long way to go before their careers are truly at an end.