Almost 90% of people would agree to genetic testing to tailor medication use, survey finds

AND THEY WANT TRICORDERS TOO

Queen Mary University of London

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• New research shows almost 90% of people in England would agree to genetic testing to get the most effective medication and reduce the risk of side effects

• 85% thought that the NHS should offer pharmacogenomic testing to people with multiple health conditions

• 58% of people thought that the NHS should offer this testing to everyone

• 91% wanted access to their own pharmacogenomic data, with many wanting this via the NHS app

Pharmacogenomics – an individual’s genetic response to medications – is an increasingly important strand of personalised healthcare but little is known about the public's views on it. Researchers at Queen Mary University of London, working with key partners, have carried out a first-of-its-kind public consultation to gather the public's views on pharmacogenetics.

 

How a person responds to medication is sometimes influenced by their genetic makeup. Some medications do not work as well for people with certain genetic variations, and in other cases can lead to serious side effects. Side effects account for one in 16 hospital admissions and have been estimated to cost the NHS £2.2 billion annually – demonstrating how important pharmacogenetic testing could be.

To gauge the public's attitudes on pharmacogenetics, a research team, led by Dr Emma Magavern at Queen Mary University of London in collaboration with the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen), surveyed a representative sample of UK adults. Dr Magavern’s team worked with the NHS England Network of Excellence for Pharmacogenomics and Medicines Optimisation and the Participant Panel at Genomics England. 2,719 responses were obtained (a response rate of 58%)

Key findings from the survey include:

• Only half of participants knew that variations in DNA can predict either efficacy or side effects from a medication
• People who were prescribed medication were almost twice as likely to want a PGx test
• Most people (59%) reported experiencing either no benefit or a side effect from a medication.

Dr Emma Magavern, NIHR Clinical Academic Lecturer in Queen Mary’s Centre for Clinical Pharmacology and Precision Medicine who led the study, said: “This survey shows that many people in the UK feel that they have taken medication which has not been good for them, and most understand that people can respond differently to the same medication. There is widespread public support for personalising prescribing with genetic information and including this within NHS clinical care nationally, in partnership with patients and highlighting the key role of patient agency.”

Dr Rich Scott, Chief Executive Officer at Genomics England, said: “Pharmacogenomics holds enormous promise for improving health and helping to shift healthcare from reaction to prevention – and these results show it’s vital that the public are partners, not passengers, on this journey. 

“This study shows that the public welcome using genetic testing to help make drug prescription safer and more effective, and that people want to be able to access their own data themselves. This is all vital information as we develop the digital infrastructure and evidence on how routine use of pharmacogenomics could become a routine part of healthcare in the coming years and have a real impact on patient care."

Dave McCormick, a member of the Participant Panel at Genomics England, said: “The Participant Panel were delighted to be involved in this important work. We are excited about the future for pharmacogenomics and encouraged that patients are being involved from the outset.”

 This study was supported by NIHR Biomedical Research Centres at Barts and Manchester.

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Journal

QJM

Method of Research

Survey

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

A United Kingdom Nationally Representative Survey of Public Attitudes Towards Pharmacogenomics

Article Publication Date

19-Feb-2025

COI Statement

Emma F Magavern and JHM are chairs of the pharmacogenomics section of GeNotes, for which William G Newman is also a reviewer. Emma F Magavern and MJC are members of the Yellow Card Biobank Steering Committee. John H McDermott, Videha Sharma, and William G Newman are co-founders of Fava Health Ltd.

 

Fitness apps fuelling disordered eating

Flinders University

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Isabella Anderberg, PhD student, College of Education, Psychology and Social Work, Flinders University

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Credit: Flinders University

With New Year resolutions in full swing and health tracking apps at our fingertips, new research reveals concerning links between health and fitness apps and disordered eating, body image concerns and excessive exercise.

“Diet and fitness apps are marketed as tools to improve health, however they may also have unintended negative consequences, such as creating pressure to meet goals, concerns about body image as well as provoking feelings of guilt if goals aren’t achieved,” says Ms Isabella Anderberg in the College of Education, Psychology and Social Work.

“Whilst there is evidence that these tools can be effective in increasing physical activity, we’re interested in understanding whether these apps might actually be harmful for some users.”

The use of diet and fitness apps is common among young adults, with an estimated 311 million people using health apps, such as MyFitnessPal, to track their meals, calories, and exercise.

Flinders University researchers reviewed 38 studies to examine the links between the use of diet and fitness apps and the risk of users becoming obsessive about weight loss, body image, calorie counting, and excessive exercise.

The research found that those who use health and fitness apps regularly were more likely to have problematic habits related to food and exercise.

“We found that young adults who use diet and fitness apps have greater disordered eating symptoms, such as harmful or restrictive diets, and have negative thoughts about body image when compared to those that don’t use them,” says Ms Anderberg.

“The focus on dietary restriction and weight-loss in these apps may feed into restrictive or excessive behaviours raising concerns for those people who have pre-existing concerns about their weight or body image.

“While some users reported positive experiences such as increased awareness and motivation, the broader implications for mental health need careful consideration, especially among vulnerable populations like adolescents,” she says.

The research also highlights the responsibility that app developers have when designing health and fitness apps to consider the psychological impacts of these tools.

Senior author, Professor Ivanka Prichard, says that as more people turn to apps for guidance in their wellness journeys, they should ensure that they are prioritising mental health alongside fitness goals.

“Our findings highlight the importance of promoting healthy body image and exercise behaviours among young adults, and of being aware of the potential risks associated with the use of diet and fitness apps and for users to approach them with a focus on improving their health,” says Professor Prichard.

“In a growing world of technology, studies like this are important in shaping future research to provide the best health and self-management information via apps to the wider population,” Professor Prichard adds.

The research team noted that more research is needed to understand the benefits and risks related to using health and fitness apps.

“As self-monitoring technology evolves and new diet and fitness apps are released, it is crucial that research continues to explore potential benefits and any unintended consequences connected to their use,” concludes Ms Anderberg.

The article, “The link between the use of diet and fitness monitoring apps, body image and disordered eating symptomology: A systematic review” by Isabella Anderberg, Eva Kemps and Ivanka Prichard was published in Body Image journal. DOI: 10.1016/j.bodyim.2024.101836

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Journal

Body Image

DOI

10.1016/j.bodyim.2024.101836 

Method of Research

Systematic review

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

The link between the use of diet and fitness monitoring apps, body image and disordered eating symptomology: A systematic review

Private Equity Gets Pushback on Attempts to Strip Investor Protections

By Bloomberg News

February 19, 2025 

(Bloomberg) -- In 2025’s go-go leveraged debt markets, everything is up for negotiation, but a trio of investor protections are proving to be lines that lenders won’t cross.

The safeguards are designed to block aggressive moves now known simply by the names of the companies that first deployed them - J Crew, Serta and Chewy - and make it harder to push through debt restructurings that strip lenders of claims to assets. Attempts to secure funding without them were rebuffed recently by credit providers in at least three cases involving buyout firms.

The pushback is a marked contrast to other loans over the past few months where lenders have agreed to everything from debt-funded dividends to debt being repriced at lower rates as private equity flexes its negotiating power. Those concessions were negatives for lenders because dividend recaps weaken balance sheets, while repricings leave credit investors with a smaller cushion to carry them through any market slump.

‘Battleground Topic’

“This is a battleground topic and we’re still seeing investors successfully push back on these asks” around the three sacrosanct protections, said Jeremy Duffy, a partner at law firm White & Case LLP, who covers leveraged finance.

KPS Capital Partners, which raised €1.1 billion ($1.2 billion) for its buyout of Ineos Composites, had to write the safety clauses back into deal documents after prospective lenders baulked, according to people with knowledge of the transaction. In February, commercial roofing company Tecta America Corp. also added the covenants back when it was pursuing a refinancing and dividend recap.

Flynn Group, which operates franchises including Applebees, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, recently had to add the trio of protections back in a refinancing deal that also funded a payout to owners including Main Post Partners.

The terms are so important to lenders that they’re checking with private equity sponsors at the pre-marketing stage that the protections are definitely included, three people with knowledge of the matter said. And on their side, private equity firms which had no intention of stripping them out are making a point of telling the buyside that they’re in the documents to make them feel comfortable, the people said.

For example, updated documents for a €380 million loan financing backing Triton Partners’ refinancing of Trench Group made it clear that all three blockers were included in the deal from the start, they added.

A spokesperson for Triton declined to comment. KPS, Tecta, Trench and Flynn did not respond to requests for comment.

Private equity firms are emboldened to try to push through weaker covenants by a global rally that’s driving rampant demand for leveraged loans. When new debt is offered in the primary market, many investors only get a fraction of the allocation they’re seeking.

That puts borrowers in the driving seat given the biggest buyers of leveraged loans, investment vehicles called collateralized loan obligations, have raised so much money they’re having trouble finding places to put it to work. More than 80% of dollar and euro-denominated loans issued in January were used to reprice existing debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Huge Demand

While KPS tightened up the documents, Ineos Composites still saw demand exceed three times the size of its leveraged loan, according to three people with knowledge of the deal, and the company managed to cut pricing and upsize the transaction. That shows some sponsors don’t see any downside in approaching investors with the most aggressive terms possible.

While lenders managed to wring concessions from the owners of Ineos Composites and Flynn Group, private equity firms haven’t given up on efforts to push through borrower-friendly precedents.

These moves may not always be obvious. For example, the inclusion of a J Crew blocker is optional in Clayton Dubilier & Rice’s €8.65 billion of financing backing its purchase of a stake in Opella, according to people with knowledge of the deal, so it will only be included if investors ask for it.


Another risk is that while investors focus their energies on fighting for blockers, they may be letting other borrower-friendly terms slide past them. Lenders often only have a few days to look at deals, and documents are hundreds of pages long.

Other Concessions

Private equity firms, for example, have been looking to include what’s known as a high-watermark Ebitda clause in recent deals. It would allow those owners to use the highest level of the company’s earnings to calculate dividends or to raise further debt.

The provision is controversial because it could allow the buyout firms to lever up firms regardless of performance. The watermark clauses have been dropped recently from deals including Ineos Composites and a refinancing for IT company Questel.

Rarely-used portability clauses are also cropping up on leveraged loans, according to bankers. These allow borrowers to keep existing debt in place even in the event of a sale, removing the need for any new buyer to find financing. Investors would otherwise be repaid and then get a shot at a new deal, potentially with better terms.

The tension between the sides comes after a number of lenders were hit when borrowers turned to debt restructurings called liability management exercises after running into trouble. That often involved bringing in new financing that ranks above the existing creditors.

“As a result, lenders of course want to protect themselves with these blockers, which can thwart some of the worst LMEs depending on how they’re drafted,” said Sabrina Fox of Fox Legal Training, an expert on company loan documents. “When the negotiating dynamics shift, the party with the most power pushes back, and in this case it’s PE sponsors wanting to preserve maximum LME flexibility.”

--With assistance from Kat Hidalgo and Gowri Gurumurthy.

(Adds details on repricing debt in first paragraph above Huge Demand subheadline.)

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

GREENWASHING


BNP, Santander, Barclays Rank as Best on Financed CO2 Emissions

By Bloomberg News

February 19, 2025

Emissions fume at the coal-fueled Oak Grove Power Plant on April 29, 2024 in Robertson County, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

(Bloomberg) -- BNP Paribas SA, Banco Santander SA and Barclays Plc stand out as the best among banks in terms of their current and forecast financed CO2 emissions, according to analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Financed emissions are a measurement of greenhouse gases associated with a bank’s investments and lending activities to some of the most carbon-intensive industries. The data can be used to help determine a financial institution’s overall carbon footprint.

Just 28 of the 53 largest global banks tracked by BI have set financed-emissions reduction targets for 2030 for the oil and gas, power generation, cement and steel industries that align with the benchmark for the International Energy Agency’s net zero by 2050 roadmap.

Lending to these sectors fell 41% in 2023, driven by oil and gas-lending reductions. Going forward, the expectation is that assuming the banks don’t have “exclusion policies” in place, financing will increase as cash flows ease for most fossil-fuel companies and the reliance on bank funding rebounds, said BI analyst Grace Osborne.
To read the full BI report, click here.

The big European banks were the clear frontrunners based on BI’s most recent data from 2023, in terms of having the best mix of current and forecast financed-emission performance.

That’s partly tied to European Union regulations that require banks to assess their material risks, including nature-related losses. The European Central Bank can intervene in cases, including imposing fines, when it determines that the way a lender is managing climate or environmental risks is deficient.

Regulations and political pressures are “diverging massively” between the EU and the US, and that’s resulting in “completely diametrically opposing pressures on banks,” Osborne said.

The result is that most of the largest European banks have better BI Carbon Scores than their US competitors. For example, BNP Paribas’ score is 8.96, compared with Citigroup Inc.’s 7.33; and Santander’s score is 8.85, topping Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s 6.92. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s score is 6.29, Bank of America Corp.’s is 5.16 and Wells Fargo & Co.’s is 5.40.

BI notes that due to a lack of comprehensive data, it uses various calculations to produce carbon scores. This includes incorporating Bloomberg’s league-table data to derive financed emissions from the banks lending activities and applying a so-called attribution factor to the banks’ emissions using the same methodology as the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials. For oil, gas and coal companies, BI focuses on Scope 3 emissions, calculated by applying a CO2 coefficient to the companies’ production from a given year.

Looking to the future, NatWest Group Plc and National Australia Bank Ltd. are among the industry leaders in terms of relative ranking for future cuts in financed emissions, Osborne said. NAB, for example, has set targets for five of the most carbon-intensive industries and loans to those sectors represent only 1% of the bank’s loan book, far below the peer-set average of 33%, she said.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Oil Exports From Russia’s Busiest Port Unencumbered by Sanctions

By Serene Cheong

February 19, 2025 

A crude oil tanker. 

Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg 

(Bloomberg) -- Crude-oil exports from Russia’s main Pacific terminal remain robust as shippers and traders — yet again — work around a fresh batch of curbs from the US, enlisting a new roster of vessels to keep barrels moving.

Between Jan. 30 and Feb. 16, none of the sixteen tankers that loaded ESPO crude from the eastern port of Kozmino was on the US sanctions list, data from Bloomberg and Kpler show, after Washington broadened curbs early last month. Half of them are new to handling the local ESPO grade, data show.

Oil traders are closely tracking Russia’s ability to keep shipping crude to global markets, with direct talks between the Trump administration and Moscow in Saudi Arabia over a potential settlement in Ukraine raising questions over whether sanctions may be loosened. Flows from Iran — another US target — have proved to be similarly resilient, despite renewed threats to clamp down.

Since late-January, many of the vessels that were new to the ESPO trade sailed under so-called flags of convenience, including Panama, the Cook Islands, Sierra Leone and Djibouti, data show. All but one of the ESPO cargoes were bound for China — popular destinations include Dongying, Huizhou and Dongjiakou. Most of the ships are owned by companies registered in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seychelles, according to data from Equasis.

Freight rates for the Kozmino-to-Asia route did spike after the latest US sanctions — among the final salvos from the Biden administration — then faded. At present, the fee is about $5 million for the three- to five-day voyage to China, accoding to shipbrokers and a Chinese private refiner. That’s up from $1.5 million before Jan. 10, but down from a peak.


©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Barrick signs deal to end Mali gold mine dispute, Reuters says

By Bloomberg News

February 19, 2025 

Barrick Gold Corp. signed an agreement with Mali’s government to end a dispute over its mining assets in the country, according to a report from Reuters. The company’s shares jumped.

The Canadian company signed the agreement and is waiting for Mali to approve the deal, and an official announcement could come as early as Thursday, Reuters said Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Barrick suspended operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex in January after Mali’s government started removing gold from the mine and blocking shipments out of the country. Mali’s government has accused Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow of money laundering.

Jacob Lorinc, Bloomberg News

CDPQ, Systra win bid to build high-speed rail project in Canada

P3 PUBLIC PENSION FUNDS PRIVATIZATION

By Bloomberg News

February 19, 2025

Canada awarded a contract for a 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) high-speed passenger rail project between Toronto and Quebec City to a group led by the Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec.  

QUEBEC CREDIT UNION FUNDED BY QUEBEC PENSION PLAN

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the announcement Wednesday in Montreal. Overall costs were not disclosed, but high-level studies done by the transportation department said a high-speed rail project in the region would reach well over $65 billion (US$45.7 billion) — and it’s likely to be much higher.

The government chose a consortium named Cadence to develop, build and operate the project known as Alto. It includes CDPQ’s infrastructure unit along with engineering firms AtkinsRealis Group Inc. and Systra SA and transportation companies Groupe Keolis SAS, Air Canada and SNCF Voyageurs.

Canada has allocated $3.9 billion over the next several years to develop the project, but there’s no timeline for completion.

Proponents have been talking about high-speed rail for decades as a tool for economic development and reducing emissions. Canada is the world’s second-largest country in land area, but 60% of its 41 million people live in Ontario and Quebec and most of those are in a southern corridor — density that creates suitable conditions for rail.


But Trudeau is set to leave office next month and an election is near. A new government will be under pressure to make investments in military, security and energy infrastructure; it’s too early to say where a high-speed rail project would fit in with its priorities.

Trudeau and Transport Minister Anita Anand emphasized at a news conference that it would be hard for a future government to walk away from the contracts, or to pass up the productivity gains to the Canadian economy.

“Future governments will make their determinations about how they invest. But this investment in Canadians, which starts right now, is going to be very difficult to turn back on,” Trudeau said.

Currently, a passenger train trip between Toronto and Montreal takes about five and half hours, roughly the same time as by car. Train trips are often delayed because they use Canadian National Railway Co. tracks, on which freight has priority.

High-speed trains moving on dedicated tracks at a top speed of 185 miles per hour would cut times significantly. Toronto to Montreal would take about three hours, while Toronto to Ottawa would be a little more than two.

Stops are planned in Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal, Laval, Trois-Rivieres and Quebec City.

CDPQ has built an expertise with rail systems. The pension fund is currently building an $8 billion light rail system in Montreal, known as the Réseau Express Métropolitain. The pension fund undertook the 42-mile project in 2015 to link Montreal’s international airport to several suburbs. A first phase is operational, and the project is slated to finish in 2027, seven years behind schedule.

Two other groups made proposals, and the government now owns the right to use their ideas as well. The losing bidders included engineering firm Jacobs and Deutsche Bahn AG, the German rail company.
California debacle

Gilles Roucolle, author of Transformations in Mobility and Oliver Wyman’s co-head of Europe, said in an interview that the Toronto-Montreal corridor is already well-served by airlines and roads. The “stickiness effect of frequent flier programs” and the relatively low cost of road transportation must be considered before choosing the best project for this corridor, he said.

“It’s a market that is already quite well-covered competitively,” Roucolle explained. Key benefits will be the reduced door-to-door transit time and flexibility for business travelers. “If you don’t have frequency, you cannot catch the high-contribution travelers.”

A similar project under construction between San Francisco and Los Angeles is facing significant funding and political challenges.

The California High Speed Rail Authority was established in 1996, but voters took until 2008 to approve almost $10 billion of general obligation bonds for the project. Construction started seven years later. Costs have since soared to $128 billion, and about 6% of the project has not been cleared by environmental authorities.

Uncertainty remains over how the California project will be funded and whether a first 171-mile segment between Bakersfield and Merced will be commissioned between 2030 and 2033, as is the target.

The train “is the worst-managed project I think I’ve ever seen,” US President Donald Trump said last week, calling for an investigation into it.

Mathieu Dion, Bloomberg News

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Train delayed: A timeline of high-speed rail projects in Canada

By The Canadian Press

February 19, 2025

New passenger trains, left, sit on the tracks at the Via Rail Canada Maintenance Centre in Montreal, Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

MONTREAL — Bold plans and promises for high-speed rail lines in Canada stretch as far back as Pierre Trudeau’s government. So far, none have come to pass.

Some two dozen studies, market assessments, special reports and task force papers have been carried out since 1984, according to the High Speed Rail Canada platform, an online resource on the subject.

Now, the Liberal government’s announcement of a high-speed project set to connect Toronto and Quebec City — complete with $3.9 billion in fresh funding and selection of a consortium to design, build and run the route — go further than any previous attempt.

Here’s a look at some of the key dates in previous attempts for faster rail travel:

1971


A Canadian Transport Commission study in 1970 takes a hard look at high-speed rail between Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. But it finds that “TurboTrains” offer the best way to improve passenger service, “maximizing the potential” of existing tracks rather than upgrading rail infrastructure at high cost.

Introduced a couple of years earlier, the gas turbine-powered Turbos were technically capable of 270 km/h speeds. They never broke 160 km/h on Canadian rail lines, however, meaning they fell short of what’s typically considered the high-speed threshold. The lower speed owed to tight turns, at-grade road crossings — where slowdowns are required — and the fact that the speedy coaches ran on the same tracks as lumbering freight trains, which had priority — and still do.

Via abandoned the Turbo in 1982 and replaced it with conventional, diesel-electric powered Bombardier trains that topped out at about 160 km/h.

1981

After pledging to create a nationwide carrier akin to Amtrak in the U.S. during the 1974 election campaign, then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau asks Via Rail to figure out if there is a future for high-speed rail in Canada. In 1984, the Crown corporation notes its “promise” for revenues and ridership, citing networks such as Japan’s bullet train to France’s Train à Grande Vitesse. (Canada remains the only Group of Seven country without a high-speed network.)

“There is little doubt that consideration of high-speed rail will be a key part of longer-range national plans for modernizing Canada‘s passenger railway system,” states the 1984 report. Longer-range indeed. Seven months later, the two-decade Liberal reign in Ottawa ends and more detailed plans fail to materialize under Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives.

1995

“There have been many studies of the potential application of high-speed rail to the Québec-Windsor Corridor,” reads an 89-page report from Transport Canada — from 1995. It concludes that a 300 km/h line is pricey but feasible, with Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto as the “best scenario.” It predicts revenues would hit $1.5 billion in 1993 dollars, or about $2.8 billion today, accounting for inflation.

Despite an endorsement from both prime minister Jean Chretien and Quebec premier Lucien Bouchard — bitter adversaries on Quebec sovereignty — the report goes on to gather dust on a shelf.

2002

Yet another Via report revives high-speed hopes. It lays out a federal project dubbed ViaFast to cut travel times — by half in some cases — along the Windsor-Quebec City corridor: to two hours and 15 minutes between Toronto and Ottawa; to one hour and 15 minutes from Ottawa to Montreal. But Paul Martin’s successor Liberal government scraps the undertaking.


2017

In Ontario, then-premier Kathleen Wynne announces plans for a high-speed line between Toronto and London, Ont., by 2025. The provincial Liberals commit $11 billion to the effort in their 2018 budget, less than three months before Doug Ford’s Conservatives sweep to power. The following year, his government’s first budget freezes capital funding and halts plans for the tracks.

2024

Discussion of a bullet train between Calgary and Edmonton has bubbled up periodically in Alberta since 2011. That line as well as commuter rails for both cities form part of the government’s goal of a provincewide passenger rail network, with spikes in the ground as early as 2027.

Premier Danielle Smith announces in April the government’s intention to hammer out a 15-year master plan by the summer of 2025. No routes have yet been announced.

2025

The federal government said on Feb. 19 it would move forward with the next phase of building a high-speed rail network between Quebec City and Toronto.

The Liberal government said the planned rail network — which is expected to take several years to design and build — will be 100 per cent electric, span approximately 1,000 kilometres, and reach speeds of up to 300 kilometres an hour. The route would include stations in Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montréal, Laval, Trois-Rivières and Quebec City.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 19, 2025.

Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press

Canada a ‘great place to invest,’ says head of mining giant BHP

By Ivonne Flores Kauffman, 

BNN Bloomberg

February 19, 2025 

The head of one of the world’s largest mining companies says he’s betting big on Canada.

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Tuesday, BHP Group Ltd. CEO Mike Henry touted his company’s recent dealmaking in Canada, pointing to a joint venture with Lundin Mining Corp. to acquire Toronto-listed miner Filo Corp.’s copper assets in South America.

“We are in path of growing copper production by 24 per cent over three years,” said Henry, a Canadian with over three decades of experience in the mining industry.

Australia-based BHP has also tapped Canada for its potash. The $14 billion Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan is expected to become one of the world’s largest potash mines once production begins at the end of 2026.

“Canada is a great place to invest, and I can’t speak highly enough of the effort of the Saskatchewan government,” Henry said. “Shareholders in the company will benefit from our investment in potash for decades to come.”

Dividend cut on China weakness

Henry’s comments came after BHP announced it was trimming its interim dividend to an eight-year low as weakened iron ore demand out of China ate into the company’s first-half profits.

But Henry said he expects Chinese demand for iron ore, mainly used to produce steel, to peak this decade.

“Every major economy as it develops goes through a steel intensive phase of economic development,” he said.

“In due course you will see a peak in steel demand in China… as a result of that you will face shrinking iron ore demand long-term.”

Looking ahead, Henry said BHP is focusing on the “next place to be,” which he said is copper, adding that as China enters its next economic development phase and the world moves towards the clean energy transition, demand for the metal will increase.

Trump trade policies could cause ‘a global recession’: Rosenberg

By Jordan Fleguel

February 18, 2025 at 4:12PM EST

Veteran Canadian economist David Rosenberg says U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy proposals could plunge the world economy into recession if they are implemented.

“In so far as Trump carries through with his pledges, it’s going to be enough to cause a global recession,” Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research, told BNN Bloomberg in a Tuesday interview.

“It would definitely create the conditions for a global economic downturn that I’m not so sure the White House is taking seriously.”

Trump has made numerous threats against some of his closest trading partners since he was elected last year, promising to implement sweeping tariffs on goods entering the U.S. from Canada, China, Mexico and elsewhere.

The U.S. president’s rhetoric around trade has led to unprecedented uncertainty in world financial markets, Rosenberg said.

“Most of the uncertainty measures that we’re paying attention to are anywhere between two and four standard deviations above historical norms… we always live in an uncertain world, but this is an uncertain world on steroids,” he argued.

“And I would say that it’s probably 100 per cent related to the chaotic trade policy threats coming out of the White House, I would pin it almost all on that.”

Despite the underlying economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions, equity investors have continued to pour money into U.S. markets. The S&P 500 Index drifted lower before Tuesday’s close but was still near the all-time closing high set last month.

Rosenberg said he believes the stock market is overvalued, and that many traders are overlooking the inherent risks involved in equity investing.

“You have an equity risk premium (ERP) in the U.S. at zero… so if you believe in the longevity and the veracity of the U.S. bull market, then you have to be of the view when the ERP is zero that the equity market has miraculously become as riskless an asset class as Treasury bills,” he said.

“Frankly I don’t believe that’s what I’d define as being rational, but we’ve seen the markets behave this way in the past. It doesn’t usually end well, but in the process, everybody seems to enjoy it, but that’s the reality – ERP at zero, to me, is danger zone.”


Jordan Fleguel
Journalist, BNNBloomberg.ca

North American auto industry will ‘shut down’ if Trump imposes 25% tariffs: Volpe

By Jordan Fleguel

February 19, 2025 
.

The president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association says North America’s deeply integrated auto industry would sooner shut down than operate in a trade environment that puts 25 per cent tariffs on parts and vehicles entering the U.S.

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday, Flavio Volpe said that auto industry players in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico all share the same frustration over the numerous tariff threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump in recent weeks.

“We all know that you can’t make a car without all of the parts arriving in time, and so if you create a tariff that is at 25 per cent… somebody, either the carmaker, the parts supplier or ultimately the consumer, will have to pay,” he said.

“You can’t just lower the price and figure it out. When it crosses the border, somebody has to take that money from reserves and put it into a U.S. government account… the industry will shut down before it operates in a 25 per cent tariff range.”

Trump’s tariff rhetoric has been seemingly unending since he took office one month ago.

The White House originally threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods entering the U.S., but more specific threats to tax all imports of steel, aluminum, and most recently, semiconductors and automobiles, have since been made.

The auto industry was already set to be one of the hardest hit in any tariff scenario, according to experts, especially if targeted countries including Canada impose retaliatory tariffs of their own.

But Volpe said that while he’s always taken Trump’s trade threats seriously, the industry is in a holding pattern for the time being until U.S. authorities start enforcing and collecting import levies.

“(Trump) hasn’t been clear… I’m old enough to remember when Wendy’s used to sell you hamburgers under the campaign of ‘Where’s the Beef’ – we need to see paper before we can calculate and respond,” he explained.

“Hopefully we see none of it, but I’m not dismissing what he’s saying. We are taking very seriously that he wants to recast the relationship, but we can’t do anything until we actually see paper.”

Volpe added that if Trump’s ultimate goal with his trade policies is to create “winning conditions” for American manufacturers, imposing tariffs on two of the country’s closest trading partners, potentially igniting a North American trade war, would be counterproductive.

“Cutting off Canada and Mexico is the worst playbook anyone could come up with,” he said.

Volpe argued that going forward, the Canadian auto sector needs to be strategic in its negotiations and present a unified defensive front rather than attempting to plead its case with Trump administration officials, many of whom may not be willing listen.

“I’m going to Washington tomorrow in that effort, (saying): ‘Hey by the way, here are the numbers in case someday you’re going to come back around to the math and science… 156 plants employing 50,000 Americans in 18 states are owned by Canadian auto suppliers,’” he said.

“We’re American investors and American employers, don’t cut off your nose to spite your face.”

Jordan Fleguel
Journalist, BNNBloomber