Friday, February 06, 2026

 

Big data and LASSO improve health insurance risk prediction




KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
Variable-group selection results indicate which categories of information are most informative for predicting the study’s health-risk proxies. 

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Variable-group selection results indicate which categories of information are most informative for predicting the study’s health-risk proxies.

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Credit: Shaoran Li, et al




Insurers must price and underwrite policies with incomplete information, while applicants often know more about their own health risks. This information gap can contribute to adverse selection and inefficient pricing. A new study published in Risk Sciences investigates whether alternative data sources (“big data”) and modern predictor-selection methods can improve health insurance risk assessment — which data sources are most worth collecting.

The researchers, from Peking University and University of International Business and Economics in China, analyzed proprietary critical illness insurance application and claim information from Chinese insurance company InsurTech. In addition to standard policy and demographic variables, the dataset includes applicant-authorized smartphone-related “label” information, such as device signals, location- and app-related indicators, and credit-inquiry related signals, as well as public medical-claim records from hospitals.

“To capture health risk, we used outcomes tied to critical illness claims as well as information derived from individuals' prior public medical-claim history,” explains lead author Ruo Jia. “We found that adding big data and applying LASSO-style methods improves out-of-sample prediction compared with models relying only on traditional underwriting information.”

Notably, big data obtained from smartphone use offer extra-predictive power in addition to past medical histories.

“Because collecting and processing underwriting data can be expensive, we also applied Adaptive Group LASSO to identify which categories of variables are most useful,” says Jia. “We determined that the most fruitful data collection sources for health insurance underwriting are personal digital devices, recent travel experience, and insureds' credit records.”

The authors emphasize that the analysis is predictive rather than causal: “we do not offer causal interpretations.” They also discuss limitations related to the study's coverage and context.

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Contact the author: 

Shaoran Li (corresponding author)

School of Economics, Peking University, China

lishaoran@pku.edu.cn

The publisher KeAi was established by Elsevier and China Science Publishing & Media Ltd to unfold quality research globally. In 2013, our focus shifted to open access publishing. We now proudly publish more than 200 world-class, open access, English language journals, spanning all scientific disciplines. Many of these are titles we publish in partnership with prestigious societies and academic institutions, such as the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC).

 

 

Pioneering technique allows the first-in-human repair of defective mechanical heart valves without surgery



The study, published in the European Heart Journal, opens new possibilities in interventional cardiology and could improve safety and quality of life for thousands of patients




Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares Carlos III (F.S.P.)





A team led by the Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares (CNIC) and Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid has developed and clinically applied a minimally invasive technique that, for the first time, enables the treatment of defective mechanical aortic valves using a catheter-based approach. The procedure avoids high-risk open-heart surgery and opens new therapeutic possibilities for patients who previously had no realistic options. The two research groups, led respectively by Dr. Borja Ibáñez and Dr. Alberto San Román, are part of the Spanish cardiovascular research network CIBERCV .

Mechanical heart valves have been used for decades to treat severe aortic valve disease, with their high durability making them particularly attractive for younger patients. However, when these prostheses fail—due either to obstruction of their mobile discs or other malfunctions—the only available treatment until now has been repeat open-heart surgery, a high-risk procedure that is not feasible for many patients.

“We were encountering patients with severely dysfunctional mechanical valves for whom no reasonable therapeutic option existed,” explains Dr. Ibáñez, CNIC Scientific Director, cardiologist at Hospital Universitario Fundación Jiménez Díaz, and senior author of the study published in European Heart Journal. “The risk of repeat surgery was prohibitive, and until now there were no effective percutaneous alternatives.”

Unlike biological valves, mechanical valves could not previously be treated with catheter-based techniques. The new study describes the first minimally invasive alternative for these complex cases. Specifically, the researchers developed and validated a strategy known as mechanical valve-in-valve (ViMech), which enables the catheter-mediated implantation of a new valve inside a defective mechanical valve after controlled removal of its mobile discs.

“This study combines preclinical research and clinical application—a rarity in developments of this type—and demonstrates that an experimental concept can be translated safely to patients,” notes Dr. Ibáñez.

The team first developed and tested the technique in experimental models, demonstrating that the mechanical valve discs can be fragmented and retrieved safely using catheter-based tools and protection systems designed to prevent debris from entering the bloodstream. The procedure was then translated to the clinical setting and applied for the first time in patients with severely damaged mechanical valves and extremely high surgical risk.

“The ability to remove the discs of a mechanical valve in a controlled manner and treat the patient via catheter represents a radical change in the management of these highly complex cases,” says joint first author Dr. Ignacio J. Amat Santos, interventional cardiologist at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid.

The interventions were performed without open-heart surgery and with very rapid recovery in patients at extreme risk, adds CNIC cardiologist and joint first author Dr. Carlos Real.

The study reports the first three ViMech transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures performed in humans, in patients aged 67 to 79 who had undergone multiple previous cardiac surgeries or had severe mechanical valve-related complications that made conventional reoperation impossible. In all cases, the procedure immediately restored valve function, with a very favorable clinical course and no major neurological or vascular events during follow-up.

“In these first patients, the procedure was successfully performed through the femoral artery, avoiding open surgery,” adds Dr. San Román, Chief of Cardiology at Hospital Clínico de Valladolid. “Once the mechanical discs were removed, a new transcatheter heart valve was implanted, restoring normal blood flow. All patients remained clinically stable during follow-up.”

In addition, Dr. San Román notes that in some cases the procedure allowed significant simplification of the antithrombotic regimen, avoiding the lifelong anticoagulation usually required for mechanical valves. This has a direct impact on safety and quality of life in very fragile patients.

At six-month follow-up, all patients were alive, asymptomatic, and functioning normally with their transcatheter prostheses, with no significant ischemic or hemorrhagic events.

The authors note that the study has limitations, including the small number of treated patients and the need to further investigate the optimal antithrombotic strategy after this procedure. Even so, the study represents the first complete demonstration—from laboratory development to patient application—that percutaneous treatment of defective mechanical valves is feasible.

The authors conclude that this strategy could transform the clinical management of thousands of patients in the future by offering a less aggressive option and significantly expanding therapeutic possibilities in interventional cardiology.

 

EU award for "Gender Equality Champions" goes to Bielefeld University



First German university to receive European award for gender equality




Bielefeld University

EU Award for "Gender Equality Champions" goes to Bielefeld University 

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Vice Rector Professor Dr Michaela Vogt (left) accepts the EU Award for Gender Equality Champions from EU Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharieva (right).

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Credit: Bogdan Hoyaux





Bielefeld University has been honoured by the European Union: It has been awarded the title of "Sustainable Gender Equality Champion", recognising it at European level for its many years of strategically sound gender equality work. Today (3 February 2026), Vice Rector Professor Dr Michaela Vogt and Vice Gender Equality Officer Siân Birkner from Bielefeld University accepted the award in Brussels from Ekaterina Zaharieva, EU Commissioner for Start-ups, Research and Innovation. Bielefeld University is the first German university to receive this award.

With this award, the EU emphasises Bielefeld University as an institution that consistently anchors gender equality in its structure. In its application, the university positioned itself as a pioneer of gender equality back in the 1980s and as a beacon today whose radiance extends beyond its own organisation. This development is visible nationwide: for over a decade, Bielefeld University has consistently achieved top positions in central German gender equality rankings and competitive programmes.

"This award confirms the importance of conceptually sound gender equality work," says Professor Dr Michaela Vogt, Vice Rector for International Affairs, Diversity and Society and responsible for gender equality. "I would like to thank all those involved in gender equality and all other people at Bielefeld University who work tirelessly and with commitment for gender equality."

Dr Uschi Baaken, Equal Opportunities Officer at Bielefeld University since 2001, emphasises the social significance of the award: "The presentation of the award gives us the opportunity to send a strong signal for gender equality throughout Europe in these challenging political times. The award is a welcome impetus to further promote cultural and structural change at our university."

Facts and milestones of gender equality at Bielefeld University

  • Proportion of female professors increased significantly: from 16 per cent (2003) to 38 per cent (2023) - more than doubling within 20 years.
  • Mentoring programme "movement" established: firmly institutionalised for 15 years; around 600 mentees have been supported to date. Movement is aimed at female students, doctoral candidates and postdoctoral researchers and promotes their career development in the academic system.
  • Strong Gender Studies: currently 10 professorships with gender denominations, i.e. a specialised focus on gender issues; numerous other professorships deal with gender issues in research and teaching. Since 2012, the university has invited visiting gender professors to different faculties every year.
  • Historic step in university management: Professor Dr Angelika Epple was appointed the first female rector in the university's history in 2023.
  • Female professors programme: positively evaluated four times in a row; most recently also awarded the title of "University with Strong Gender Equality".

Background: EU "Gender Equality Champions" award

Since 2022, the European Union has awarded the "Gender Equality Champion" award annually in three categories. The "Sustainable Gender Equality Champion" category recognises organisations that can demonstrate significant and sustainable activity and a high level of performance through the implementation of their Gender Equality Plan. With this award, Bielefeld joins the group of previous years' winners - academic and scientific organisations from Spain, Sweden, France, Ireland and Poland. Other categories are "Newcomer" and "Inclusive Gender Equality Champion". Each winner receives 100,000 euros for gender equality work.

 

Using influencers to encourage people to drink tap water





Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC)




Against the backdrop of climate change and dwindling water resources, supplying water to large metropolitan areas is becoming an increasingly challenging task for public authorities, who must find urgent solutions. One of the clearest and most viable ways forward is to incorporate recycled tap water into urban supply systems. However, despite being sustainable and safe, this option faces a major obstacle: consumers' instinctive, psychological resistance. Now, an international study led by the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) has identified a method that could prove key to overcoming resistance: influencer marketing.

Research led by Professor Inma Rodríguez-Ardura, coordinator of the UOC's Digital Business Research Group (DigiBiz), found that influencers on platforms such as Instagram use sensory and emotional content to build mental images, and that this is more effective than purely rational arguments for overcoming resistance to drinking recycled tap water and encouraging sustainable consumption. Recycled tap water is not consumed directly, but is fed back into supply systems, where it is mixed with water from other sources and subjected to the treatment processes required for human ingestion. The study, published in the British Food Journal, is based on the experience of 800 Instagram users from Barcelona and Phoenix. The authors also include Professor Antoni Meseguer-Artola and Gisela Ammetller, fellow members of the UOC's Faculty of Economics and Business.

The research team understood that, while there is a real and urgent need to encourage the consumption of recycled tap water in areas threatened by the climate emergency, the main obstacle to uptake is not its safety, but how it is perceived. Although recycled tap water is safe for human consumption if it has gone through appropriate water treatment systems, when people know that the source is treated and purified waste water, for many their instinctive reactions include rejection, fear and even revulsion. This visceral reaction is compounded by a widespread tendency among consumers to undervalue the supply of tap water, or take it for granted until a supply crisis occurs.

In this context, traditional communication strategies, based predominantly on technical data, scientific presentations and rational arguments about collective savings, are demonstrably insufficient for changing deeply ingrained habits. "Although sustainable water consumption objectively benefits society as a whole in the long term, just communicating this idea is not enough to get consumers' full engagement," said Rodríguez-Ardura. This is where influencer marketing comes in. According to the research, this tool helps make abstract benefits like sustainability more tangible, linking them to positive emotions and feelings, aspects that public institutions and supply companies have failed to exploit to date.

 

The power of mental imagery

The study centres on the concept of mental imagery and how social media, specifically Instagram, can be used to evoke it. The researchers set out to determine how the content created by influencers can generate subjective, transformative and compelling experiences for their followers. Rodríguez-Ardura, who is affiliated to the UOC-DIGIT research centre, explained the importance of this psychological mechanism: "Mental imagery is a subjective experience that involves conjuring up vivid feelings, objects, people or events, even if they did not happen or are not real. It's a type of feeling we create in our minds that makes things that were perceived as abstract, complex or distant seem tangible, understandable and real."

The research identifies two dimensions within this phenomenon: elaborated imagery, which the consumer creates voluntarily through cognitive effort (such as calculating how much plastic is saved by drinking tap water), and spontaneous imagery, which arises effortlessly or unconsciously, prompted by a stimulus. For example, a video of an influencer drinking recycled tap water out in the sunshine might automatically evoke mental images of it being refreshing and thirst-quenching, without the need for complex rational processing.

One of the key findings of the study, conducted on a sample of 800 Instagram users between the ages of 18 and 54, is the asymmetric impact of different types of message. Although informativeness is important for the formation of mental images, hedonic or sensorial content has a significantly greater impact. "To break down the barriers to sustainable water consumption, it's not enough to get people to understand that tap water is healthy and safe. It's also vital to recreate the experience of drinking it as something desirablerefreshing and emotionally satisfying," said Rodríguez-Ardura.

The study also explores the concept of "transportation", a psychological state of deep immersion in a narrative. The data reveals that mental imagery acts as a powerful antecedent or trigger for this phenomenon, leading the consumer to become so absorbed in the influencer's story that they lose track of time and feel part of the scene before them on the screen. Facilitating this vicarious experience reduces the capacity for critical thinking and opposition to the message. It fosters an enduring emotional connection that is key to transforming attitudes on sensitive issues, allowing us to experience the benefits of recycled tap water and its sustainable use before we actually taste it.

 

Implications for the future of public campaigns

The study's conclusions offer a clear roadmap for public institutions and bodies responsible for water management. It suggests that campaigns should not be limited to providing information, but should strive as much, if not more, to have hedonic and sensory appeal. If an authority wants to encourage the use of recycled tap water, its strategy should focus on helping the public to visualize and feel its positive properties.

"A public institution that promotes the use of recycled tap water in the urban supply system must focus its strategy on helping consumers to vicariously 'visualize' and 'feel' the positive properties of the water. This can be achieved, for example, through influencer marketing initiatives focusing on conveying the sensation of drinking, the freshness of the water, or doing healthy activities where drinking water is an emotionally desirable experience," said Rodríguez-Ardura.

 

A model applicable to other social challenges

These results have opened up new lines of research for the UOC team. They are now studying the impact of factors such as the authenticity and credibility of the influencer, the extent to which the audience identifies with the influencer, or whether messages are informative or hedonic. This communicative approach can be applied to other areas beyond water. The researchers point out that using mental imagery and transportation to persuade can be extended to other scenarios where there is resistance, fear or concern about health. "Scenarios where this new technique could be applied include campaigns to encourage people to vaccinate or recycle, or to combat climate change, as the key in all these cases lies in making an abstract benefit tangible through a positive sensory experience," they explained.
 

This project is aligned with the UOC's Digital transition and sustainability mission and contributes to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, Clean water and sanitation; and 12, Responsible consumption and production.

 

Transformative, impactful research

At the UOC, we see research as a strategic tool to advance towards a future society that is more critical, responsible and nonconformist. With this vision, we conduct applied research that's interdisciplinary and linked to the most important social, technological and educational challenges.

The UOC’s over 500 researchers and more than 50 research groups are working in five research units focusing on five missions: lifelong learning; ethical and human-centred technology; digital transition and sustainability; culture for a critical society, and digital health and planetary well-being.

The university's Hubbik platform fosters knowledge transfer and entrepreneurship in the UOC community.

More information: www.uoc.edu/en/research