UMA scientists reveal how climate studies could predict where and when the risk of Ebola outbreaks increases

They identify how their occurrence is related to large-scale meteorological patterns and propose their use for epidemiological surveillance

University of Malaga

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They identify how their occurrence is related to large-scale meteorological patterns and propose their use for epidemiological surveillance

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Credit: University of Malaga

A study led by the University of Malaga has shown that outbreaks of Ebola virus do not occur randomly over time; rather, their appearance is linked to specific large-scale meteorological patterns, even with oscillations occurring in regions thousands of miles away from Central Africa, where they are currently suffering from an epidemic of this disease, which can be fatal.

The scientific team, which also includes the Spanish Institute of Oceanography, the Manchester Metropolitan University and the Center for International Forestry Research, calls these links “teleconnections” and advocates their analysis as a “clue” to predict where and when the risk of Ebola increases.

According to the latest report from the National Institute of Public Health (INSP) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, based on data collected through September 26, more than 8,000 confirmed infections have been recorded in the latest outbreak, which began in May, including 3,901 deaths, with a case fatality rate of nearly 50 percent. 

This new finding, obtained after collecting data on 49 outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2025 and comparing them in a database with 26 climate oscillation indices, could be used as a means of epidemiological surveillance, capable of detecting early warning signals to identify periods and regions where weather conditions may be more favorable for the occurrence of new outbreaks. The paper has been published in the scientific journal Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, from the prestigious publisher Springer Nature.

From the Pacific to Africa: following a climatic track

The scientists used this data until 2018 to build the models and dedicated the years 2019-2025 to seeing if they could forecast new outbreaks. They identified four climatic oscillation indices that were particularly associated with the distribution of outbreaks: the Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature Index (CAR) – no longer available since February 2020 – , the Dipole Mode Index (IMD), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the latter being the most frequent indicator or “signal” and, therefore, the most important macroclimatic factor of the model

“Our proposed interpretation is that these large oscillations modify meteorological patterns, for example, precipitation in the African continent, and these can alter ecological conditions that favor the occurrence of outbreaks”, explains the Zoology professor at UMA Raimundo Real, one of the authors of this paper.

In this sense, the Biogeography and Macroecology professor also at the University of Malaga Jesús Olivero, another of the authors of the paper, clarifies that this does not mean that these distant climate indicators directly cause Ebola, but they may serve as an early warning “clue” of environmental conditions more closely linked to the biological phenomenon.

“Early warning systems are essential for combating infectious diseases. To achieve this, it is not enough to detect cases of the disease early; we must anticipate them by monitoring risk factors, and our predictive tool could be key to this effort,” adds Olivero.

Surveillance tool

The researchers estimate that the “useful window” of these large climatic oscillations would be six to twelve months before a potential event, so their predictive capacity is still limited and further research along these lines would be needed before they could be considered an autonomous predictive system.

Nevertheless, the study represents an initial step as a surveillance tool that could help activate preparedness measures when climate conditions indicate an increased risk, identifying periods and locations that warrant closer epidemiological monitoring.

The study of the biogeography of Central African wildlife

This scientific team of the UMA, which includes researchers from the Faculty of Sciences Miguel Ángel Farfán and Ana L. Márquez, has been working for more than a decade on the study of the distribution of the Ebola virus in Africa, seeking to gain a better understanding of the transmission mechanisms of this disease, as well as on the analysis of the occurrence of new outbreaks.

Ebola is a zoonosis, that is, a disease transmitted from animals to humans. When the 2014 epidemic occurred, these researchers at the UMA had already been studying the biogeography of Central African wildlife for some time, as well as the human interaction with wildlife through hunting. “Since this same wildlife is part of the zoonotic cycle of Ebola, we decided to apply what we had learned to the study of this disease, and we discovered that we had a lot to contribute,” they explain.

This last project provides a new perspective on how outbreaks of infectious diseases do not depend on a single factor: the interaction between climate, ecosystems, species distribution, and local conditions can generate “temporary windows” during which an outbreak is more likely to occur. “Identifying these windows in advance could give healthcare systems additional time to prepare. Our goal is to build an ‘observatory’ capable of generating updated risk forecasts based on wildlife, deforestation, macroclimate, and local weather conditions”, they conclude.

The study is part of the project “Patogeografía espacio-temporal de las zoonosis mediadas por vertebrados voladores” [Spatial-temporal pathogeography of zoonoses mediated by flying vertebrates], co-financed by the European Regional Development Funds (ERDF) and managed by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and in the PPRO-RNM262-G-2023 project of the University of Malaga, financed by the Regional Government of Andalusia and the ERDF. It has also received support from the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) through a Transfer of Research Results Contract. 

Bibliography:

Real, R., Farfán, M.A., Olivero, J. et al. Ebola-virus outbreaks are teleconnected with macroclimatic oscillations. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 40, 234 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03365-1

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Journal

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

DOI

10.1007/s00477-026-03365-1

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Ebola-virus outbreaks are teleconnected with macroclimatic oscillations

Importation of Ebola cases to Kenya and Nigeria: ECDC assesses the threat

The overall risk to the EU/EEA population remains very low

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

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With cases of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus recently detected in Kenya and Nigeria, in a new report published today the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reiterates the low risk for Europe while highlighting the need for preparedness.

As of 23 October, Kenya has reported nine cases, including one death. Eight of the cases were linked to the first case, who had travelled from DRC through Uganda and onwards to Kenya. Nigeria has reported one case, with investigations into the source of infection still ongoing.

According to ECDC’s new assessment, the likelihood of infection for people from Europe living in or travelling to affected areas in Kenya and Nigeria is low, provided they follow recommended precautions. The likelihood of the virus spreading further following an imported case in Europe is considered very low. The overall risk to the EU/EEA population therefore remains very low.

At the same time, ECDC emphasises the need for European countries to continue their preparedness for potential imported cases, including raising awareness among healthcare professionals and ensuring that healthcare facilities and laboratories are ready to identify and safely manage suspected cases. People living in or travelling to affected areas should follow the advice of local health authorities and take recommended precautions to avoid infection. ECDC does not recommend travel restrictions to or from Kenya and Nigeria. 

ECDC has been providing direct support since the current outbreak began, with experts deployed to DRC and Uganda to assess exit screening at airports in the affected areas, and to provide expertise and support at the centre of the outbreak. ECDC experts have also been deployed elsewhere in the region. The Centre is currently liaising with key partners, including Africa CDC, the European Commission, the World Health Organization, the European Union Delegation in Nigeria and Nigeria CDC to provide further support. The Centre will reassess the risk to the European population as new information becomes available. 

A practical checklist developed by ECDC for national authorities to review internal procedures and strengthen system readiness helps ensure they can react quickly and effectively in case of need. 

ZOONOSIS

Severely ill patient in France becomes first ever human infected with Shamonda virus

ECDC is investigating potential public health implications together with French authorities and European partners

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

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The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is carefully monitoring the situation after the French authorities announced the first ever reported human infection with Shamonda virus (SHAV), a disease that has until now only affected animals. 

ECDC is in contact with the French authorities and European partners to investigate the potential public health implications of this first human infection. The only infection so far has been in a patient receiving treatment for a serious illness that made them more susceptible to infection and complications than the general population. The patient died in early October. Investigations into whether the virus caused or contributed to the patient’s death and how the infection was acquired are ongoing. 

The human infection follows the first ever detection of SHAV in European farm animals in summer 2026. In animals, clinical signs were reported from June, and the virus was identified in late July. It has since been detected in farm animals in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland, as well as Jersey. SHAV has previously been detected in animals in countries outside Europe.

SHAV typically spreads between animals through bites from infected midges (Culicoides), but the specific midge species involved in transmission in this case is still unknown. In Europe, biting midges are generally most active from spring to autumn, with seasonal patterns varying by species, location and weather. Given the cooling temperatures, the activity of most biting midge species is declining in Europe. ECDC is following developments in close contact with the European Commission and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), which covers animal health and food safety across the EU.

The European Union has a robust public health infrastructure in place, and ECDC continues to work with all Member States to strengthen their response planning. The Centre is working with the relevant EU Reference Laboratory to strengthen testing capacity and offer additional support to member states to identify any other potential cases.

 

Bacteria constantly reinvent their weapons

A new study illuminates for the first time the complex interplay of evolutionary forces that shape some of the world's most versatile natural products

Max-Planck-Gesellschaft

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Many of the most potent antibiotics originate from bacteria. A large proportion belong to a class of compounds known as nonribosomal peptides (NRP). They are produced by large bacterial enzyme machineries – the nonribosomal peptide synthetases, or NRPS for short. These function like molecular assembly lines: similar to the stations in a car factory, where new parts are added to the car at each step, several specialized modules string together amino acid by amino acid to build a peptide.

The finished product is used in nature as a weapon in microbial competition – and by us humans, chemically optimized, as an active ingredient in medicines. The research group of Helge Bode at the Max Planck Institute for Terrestrial Microbiology aims to engineer the NRPS machinery at the genetic level to create entirely new drug candidates.

Like ordinary proteins, NRP are subject to evolution – but the way they change is unusual. While ordinary proteins evolve mainly through random mutations of individual DNA building blocks, NRPS exchange entire gene segments with one another. This process is called recombination. The result is new combinations of modules – and thus new peptides with altered chemical properties.

How exactly this diversity arises and which forces drive it has been poorly understood, not least because frequent recombination pushes classical methods of evolutionary research to their limits. Standard tests that normally distinguish selection from random evolution do not work here, because they are designed for changes at individual DNA positions rather than the exchange of entire DNA segments.

From insect toxin to evolutionary model

A team led by Helge Bode and Georg Hochberg from the University of Marburg has now solved this problem through an elegant approach. They focused on the GameXPeptide (GXP) – an insecticide produced by the bacteria Xenorhabdus and Photorhabdus. These bacteria live in a complex three-way partnership: They live in the gut of nematodes, which in turn infect insect larvae. Once the host is infected, the bacteria are released by the nematode and kill the insect – partly through GameXPeptides. This system of predator, host, and parasite generates evolutionary pressure: insects develop resistance, and bacteria must adapt their toxins accordingly.

The responsible enzyme machinery, the GxpS synthetase, consists of five modules – making it manageable enough to reconstruct its full evolutionary history. Through phylogenetic reconstructions, the researchers discovered a surprisingly large diversity of previously unknown GXP variants. In total, they identified 49 distinct compounds, including shortened cyclic tetrapeptides and an extended hexapeptide.

Particularly striking were patterns of convergent evolution: several bacterial lineages that had evolved independently produced identical or very similar peptide structures by separate routes. To understand the order in which the different GameXPeptide variants arose, the research group reconstructed the last common ancestor of GxpS synthetase. To do so, they had to restore around 15,000 base pairs of genetic material, assemble them into a functional gene, and finally bring it to life in Escherichia coli. This allowed them to determine what the ancestral GxpS looked like – and in what order today's variants evolved from it.

"It felt like playing five-dimensional chess," says Georg Hochberg, describing the methodological challenge. "Frequent recombination obscures the evolutionary history of these enzymes – each recombination event overwrites a piece of their past. But it is precisely this complexity that makes the system so fascinating."

Three forces shape the natural product diversity of bacteria

The detailed teamwork paid off: the analysis revealed that natural selection alone does not explain the diversity of GameXPeptides. At least three forces act together: natural selection, genetic drift, and a "recombination bias."

To distinguish natural selection from random evolution, the researchers used a statistical comparison. They identified recombinations that do not structurally alter the peptide – for example, when two modules with the same specificity are swapped for one another. These so-called homotypic recombinations served as a benchmark for what would be expected under neutral evolution. Heterotypic recombinations – those that actually change the amino acid sequence – hit significantly more often exactly those regions of the enzyme that are critical for substrate specificity. This was a clear sign of positive selection. Experiments with four different insect species confirmed it: different GXP variants kill different insects with different efficiency.

At the same time, the researchers found evidence for genetic drift – changes without any discernible selective advantage. This suggests that a substantial portion of GXP diversity arose through the random fixation of neutral variants. This effect is favored by the bacteria's life cycle: each nematode is initially colonized by only a small number of bacterial cells. These bottlenecks limit population size and amplify the role of chance in evolution.

The researchers also discovered that not every recombination is equally likely. In fact, recombinations occur preferentially between modules that are similar at the sequence level. Since similar modules are found mainly within the same gene cluster, NRPS in practice incorporate primarily those amino acids already represented in the cluster – even though they could theoretically draw on a repertoire of up to 300 different amino acid variants.

This bias is self-reinforcing and leads to an evolutionary tunnel vision: each recombination within the cluster makes the participating modules even more similar to one another, making future recombinations between the same partners increasingly likely. This mechanism may explain why the same variants so often evolve convergently – not because they are particularly effective, but because they are particularly easy to produce. "I was completely surprised by how many variants of GameXPeptides even exist," says first author Sebastian Kaiser. "And I think we are just at the beginning of understanding the evolution of natural products. There is so much more to discover."

Uncovering hidden diversity

Indeed, the implications of this work reach beyond basic research. Many well-known antibiotics are also nonribosomal peptides. If their evolutionary histories likewise conceal numerous, as-yet undiscovered recombination events, new bioactive variants may be hidden there – ones that overcome existing resistances or possess novel mechanisms of action. The methods developed in this study offer for the first time a systematic way to uncover this hidden diversity.

"Our results show that the conceptual framework we developed for the GameXPeptides can serve as a guide to decipher the evolutionary forces acting on other natural product families, such as the polyketide synthases, which like NRPS produce many clinically relevant natural products," says Helge Bode. "If we better understand the mechanisms underlying bacterial natural product diversity, it may become possible to discover new antibiotics that overcome existing resistances."

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Journal

Nature Ecology & Evolution

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Cells

Article Title

Drift, selection and recombination bias drive the evolution of a non-ribosomal peptide.

Article Publication Date

21-Oct-2026

 

Just 3% of the world’s glaciers account for over half of glacier ice loss

Glaciers ending in lakes, oceans or ice shelves lose 134bn tonnes of ice a year, with those ending in lakes losing ice 57% faster than those on land

University of Birmingham

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Glaciers ending in lakes, oceans or ice shelves make up 3.2% of the world’s glaciers, but lost 134bn tonnes of ice each year between 2000 and 2019, accounting for more than half of all glacier ice loss, a new study shows.

The team of environmental scientists found that these glaciers tend to be much larger than those ending on land, together covering more than half of the world’s glacier area. But for glaciers ending in lakes, size isn’t the whole story.

Publishing their findings in Nature Communications, the researchers found that glaciers ending in lakes lost ice around 57% faster, relative to their size, than those ending on land over the same period.

The study was led by scientists from the University of Birmingham and the University of Leeds. The team examined 216,502 glaciers worldwide, excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, to identify which end in lakes, adding to existing records of those ending on land, in oceans or in ice shelves. They then compared ice flow and ice loss across all four glacier types.

Many of the models used to project glacier change don’t yet fully account for glaciers ending in lakes. The team’s new glacier classification could help address this, enabling other researchers to improve projections of sea-level rise, water resources and natural hazards.

Dr Joe Mallalieu, who conducted the research at the University of Birmingham and is now based at the University of Leeds, said: “Glaciers ending in lakes really stand out: they’re losing ice particularly quickly. We don’t yet know exactly why. It could be the lakes themselves, the size and shape of the glaciers, or a bit of both. Untangling that is the next big question, especially as glacier lakes are becoming more common in a warming climate.”

Lakes can affect glaciers in several ways that may contribute to this higher ice loss. Lake-ending glaciers can lose large chunks of ice from the glacier front as icebergs, a process known as calving, and lake water can melt the ice below the waterline, both helping to speed up ice loss.

After accounting for factors such as climate, glacier size and elevation, the analysis revealed two key differences: glaciers ending in lakes and oceans flow on average 10% and 44% faster than those ending on land, respectively, and lake-ending glaciers lose around 57% more ice than land-ending glaciers, relative to their size.

Lake-ending glaciers were present in every major glacier region of the world, and in most regions they were losing ice faster than glaciers ending on land or in oceans.

A growing number of glaciers are changing type as the climate warms: ocean-ending glaciers are retreating onto land in parts of the Arctic, while worldwide, the growth of glacier lakes is turning some land-ending glaciers into lake-ending ones. The study’s results suggest these shifts could have contrasting effects, with glaciers retreating onto land likely to slow down, while those newly ending in lakes could lose ice faster.

Dr Nicholas Barrand from the University of Birmingham said: “The last decade has seen a huge increase in the global glacier and climate data available to researchers. Bringing these datasets together lets us compare how glaciers in different settings are behaving. As more glaciers shift from one setting to another, understanding those differences will only become more important.”

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-026-78654-y

Article Title

Global-scale variability of glacier velocity and mass loss across terminus environments

Article Publication Date

23-Oct-2026

 

Global hotspots and trends of ecological water scarcity in river basins

A first global assessment of ecological water scarcity recognizes ecosystems as legitimate water users alongside humans.

Science China Press

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image: 

(a) Spatial distribution of basins experiencing EWS in the 2000s. (b) Temporal trends in EWS severity (1850s–2000s). (c) Transitions between EWS categories (annual/seasonal/no EWS); numbers indicate basin counts. (d) Decadal changes in EWS, showing means (colored lines) and interquartile ranges (shading) across GHM –GCM ensembles. (e) Percentage of basins experiencing EWS across 150 years, with individual model results (crosses) and ensemble means (bars). (f) Intensification of EWS levels between historical periods, displayed as in panel (e).

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Credit: ©Science China Press

Healthy freshwater ecosystems are essential for sustainable development. As human water use increases and hydrological processes change, the water available to ecosystems may become insufficient to meet their basic needs, leading to ecological water scarcity.

Ecological water scarcity occurs when the water available to ecosystems is insufficient in quantity or quality to sustain their structure, functions, and health. For a long time, water scarcity assessments have focused mainly on human water demand, with insufficient attention to whether enough water remains to sustain healthy ecosystems. To address this gap, the research team developed an indicator for assessing ecological water scarcity and applied it to 1,182 river basins worldwide.

In the 2000s, 412 of the 1,182 assessed river basins experienced ecological water scarcity, accounting for 35% of the total. Of all assessed basins, 17% experienced annual EWS and 18% experienced seasonal EWS. The affected areas covered about 37 million km2, equivalent to 29% of the study area, and accounted for nearly half of the global population.

Ecological water scarcity continued to expand over the past 150 years. From the 1850s to the 2000s, the area affected by ecological water scarcity grew by about 16 million km2. The expansion accelerated after the 1950s, when the affected area increased by about 10 million km2, accounting for 63% of the total expansion over the study period.

Human interventions are a major driver of global ecological water scarcity. In the 2000s, human interventions accounted for 53% of seasonal EWS cases and 60% of annual EWS cases. The effects of human intervention became more pronounced during the second half of the 20th century, directly intensifying EWS severity in about 13% of basins worldwide.

EWS risks are expected to persist in the future. By the 2050s, affected basins range from 392 under RCP2.6–SSP1 to 416 under RCP8.5–SSP5, with persistent hotspots in regions of intensive water use. These findings show that climate mitigation can reduce future EWS risk, but environmental flow protection, water-use efficiency, water recycling, ecologically informed infrastructure operation and ecosystem restoration are also needed to safeguard freshwater ecosystems.

 

The authors of the study include Junguo Liu and Hexin Lai from North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Bojie Fu from Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengru Wang from Wageningen University & Research, the Netherlands, and Peter H. Gleick from Pacific Institute, United States. The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42361144001), the 111 Project (D25014), the National Foreign Experts Program (Category S; S20240116), the Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security, the Henan Province Foreign Scientist Studio (GZS2024013), the Henan Provincial Talent Program (254000510004), and the Innovation Fund for doctoral of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (BCJJ202404). The work was also performed as part of the UNESCO Chair on Stepwise Ecological Restoration of Watersheds and the IAHS HELPING Working Group on Stepwise Ecological Restoration of Watersheds and on Acceptance of Nature-based Solutions & Their Implementation in Guidelines.

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Journal

National Science Review

DOI

10.1093/nsr/nwag337

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

 

Protecting Public Health: Addressing Liver Disease in Welfare Programs

New book examines public health strategies, welfare programs, and equitable access to liver care

Bentham Science Publishers

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Bentham Books announces the release of Protecting Public Health: Addressing Liver Disease in Welfare Programs, an edited reference examining the intersection of liver health, public health policy, and welfare initiatives. The book highlights the importance of prevention, early diagnosis, accessible healthcare, and evidence-based interventions in addressing the growing challenges associated with liver disease.

About the Book

This volume explores the medical, social, and public health dimensions of liver disease, including viral hepatitis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD/NAFLD), liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It examines how welfare programs and public health policies can support prevention, improve screening and treatment access, and address socioeconomic barriers that affect liver health outcomes.

Taking a multidisciplinary approach, the book brings together biomedical research and public health perspectives to explore key areas such as disease epidemiology, nutrition, community-based care, health promotion, digital health, artificial intelligence, precision medicine, and translational research. It also considers innovative policy approaches and practical recommendations for strengthening healthcare systems, reducing health inequities, and improving liver disease prevention and management.

By connecting scientific advances with public health priorities, this book offers valuable insights into developing more equitable, accessible, and sustainable approaches to liver care.

Key Features

• Examines the relationship between liver disease, public health policy, and welfare programs.
• Covers viral hepatitis, MASLD/NAFLD, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma.
• Explores prevention, screening, nutrition, community-based care, and early diagnosis.
• Discusses digital health, artificial intelligence, precision medicine, and translational research.
• Highlights strategies to reduce healthcare disparities and improve access to liver disease care.

Readership: Public health researchers, healthcare professionals, clinicians, hepatologists, policymakers, welfare program administrators, academics, and postgraduate students in public health, medicine, and related disciplines.

About the Editors

Ravindra Mishra, Vinay Jain, Harsha Rathore, and Salahuddin Mohammed are the editors of this volume, bringing together multidisciplinary perspectives on liver disease, public health, and welfare programs.

Book Link: https://bit.ly/4zeHOXG

DOI: 10.2174/97988988171141260101
https://doi.org/10.2174/97988988177181260101

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DOI

10.2174/97988988177181260101