Friends, Canadians, Liberals Lend Me Your Vote

It's Jack Laytons new line. He is asking Liberals to lend him their vote. NDP courts Grit voters and it's working. The polls show it. Its the strategic move of the campaign. The SES polling last night on CPAC showed overall the NDP have been moving up while the Liberals and Conservatives have leveled out.Layton urges Tories to vote for NDP

Tories struggle in Toronto's Liberal strongholds

While Conservatives are leading in national polls across the country, in the core of Toronto the numbers are swapped: Liberals are solidly in front with 40 per cent support. Conservatives are behind with 27 per cent, and the NDP is a strong third with 25 per cent support. The Greens trail with eight per cent. (See bottom of story for poll details.)

More likely, however, the New Democrats will be the party to weaken the Liberal stranglehold. If Toronto voters are planning to punish the Liberals and change loyalties, they are much more likely to send their vote towards the NDP than the Tories.

"They know the NDP is the alternative and is the better choice," said Olivia Chow, who is bidding for an NDP seat.

"We're just not finding the Conservatives are a factor in these ridings," said her husband, Jack Layton.

The Liberals have taken it for granted that they can expect a strong showing in Toronto, said Layton. "They viewed Toronto seats as one more entitlement, part of their culture of entitlement," Layton said.

Allan Gregg, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, said there are four seats in Toronto that the Liberals could lose, but none of them is likely to fall into Tory hands.

Layton is doing his best to capitalize on the situation and take advantage of the Liberals' misfortune, said Gregg.

"So when Layton … focuses exclusively on the Liberals and ignores the prospect of a Conservative win, concedes a Conservative win, he's basically trying to pick the corpse of the Liberal party," Gregg said.

And doing a damn fine job of it to. Martin has had to attack him in his B.C. speech. No one is ignoring Jack or his moustache anymore.

NDP Headlines

Tue 17 Jan 2006
» Liberals learn no lessons from Gomery Inquiry:

Tue 17 Jan 2006
» NDP unveils second tv ad extending invitation

Tue 17 Jan 2006
» Jack Layton's speech to the Toronto Board of Trade in Toronto, ON

Tue 17 Jan 2006
» Layton lays out some bottom lines for next Parliament

Layton's 'bottom line' for propping Tories

National

View Trend Graph

SES Research

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	BQ	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	37	29	18	11	5	±3.1
01/14/06	38	30	17	10	6	±3.1
01/13/06	38	29	16	11	7	±3.1

Ekos

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	BQ	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	38.6	27.2	18.6	10.6	4.4	±3.2

ATLANTIC Canada

Includes: Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick

SES Research

DATE	LIB	CON	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	39	32	26	3	±9.9
01/14/06	37	39	22	2	±10.1
01/13/06	42	40	16	3	±9.9

Ekos

DATE	LIB	CON	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	45	32	21	1	±7.7

Ipsos-Reid

DATE	CON	NDP	LIB	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	42	30	26	2	-

QUEBEC

SES Research

DATE	BQ	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	48	22	19	9	3	±6.4
01/14/06	45	24	20	7	4	±6.5
01/13/06	48	24	17	6	4	±6.5

Strategic Counsel

DATE	BQ	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	43	26	17	9	5	±5.1
01/13/06	48	23	18	8	4	±3.6

Ekos

DATE	BQ	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	46.6	21.6	18.1	9.8	3.3	±5.8

Ontario

SES Research

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	38	34	23	5	±5.7
01/14/06	37	34	24	6	±5.6
01/13/06	38	33	21	7	±5.6
01/12/06	39	35	19	6	±5.6

Strategic Counsel

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	40	33	19	8	±4.1
01/13/06	39	35	19	7	±4.1
01/12/06	39	35	19	7	±4.1

Ekos

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	41.7	31.4	20.3	5.7	±4.3

Ipsos-Reid

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	40	37	19	4	-

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

Ipsos-Reid

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	45	32	20	3	-

Ekos

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	53	21	22	3	±7.9

Western Canada

Includes: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia

SES Research

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	47	28	18	7	±5.1
01/14/06	46	31	14	8	±5.1
01/13/06	45	31	16	8	±5.2

Prairies

Includes: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta

Strategic Counsel

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	59	18	15	8	±6.3
01/13/06	57	21	13	8	±6.3
01/12/06	58	22	13	7	±6.3

Alberta

Ipsos-Reid

DATE	CON	NDP	LIB	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	59	17	16	7	-

Ekos

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	65	15	15	4	±6.5

British Columbia

Strategic Counsel

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/15/06	42	31	22	5	±7.0
01/13/06	44	31	20	5	±7.0
01/12/06	47	28	20	5	±7.0

Ipsos-Reid

DATE	CON	LIB	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	30	29	25	16	-

Ekos

DATE	LIB	CON	NDP	GRN	MOE	LINK
01/12/06	40	34	22	4	±5.6

Seat Projections

Democratic Space

Methodology: Democratic Space takes the results of the last election as a baseline of support and adjusts each riding by the change of support in a given region based on a rolling average of the latest opinion polls. For the Democratic Space projections for individual polls, click here.

DATE	CON	LIB	BQ	NDP	OTH
01/15/06	135	82	59	32	0
01/14/06	133	84	60	31	0
01/13/06	133	89	57	28	0

Jord.ca

Methodology: Jord.ca obtains its projections by applying the latest poll results for each region to the relevant provices via Professor Werner Antweiler's Election Forecaster. Read more...

DATE	CON	LIB	BQ	NDP	OTH
01/12/06	144	67	59	37	1

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Canada
Federal Election
Politics
NDP
Paul Martin
Jack Layton
Liberals