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Many Americans are ready to question the result of the presidential election

A study finds that a significant share of partisans will support a re-run if they don’t get their way
Graphic detail

Jul 7th 2020

DONALD TRUMP’S odds of being re-elected this November appear to have shrunk dramatically this past month. Our election-forecasting model now gives him just a one-in-ten chance of being re-elected in November. But as his prospects for a legitimate victory have faded, his critics worry that he may try to hold on to power by illegitimate means. Theories about what might happen range from Mr Trump claiming fraud and refusing to leave the White House after his challenger, Joe Biden, is inaugurated next January, to armed insurrection and violence against Democrats.

A new report from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, a collective of public-opinion researchers and political scientists, suggests that a surprisingly large minority are prepared to question the result of the election in November, and even to support violence. According to their survey of 5,900 Americans, detailed in a report released in June, 18% of respondents (including 29% of Republicans) think it would be appropriate for Mr Trump to refuse to leave office if he claims he lost because of widespread illegal voting. To many, Mr Trump has already set the stage for this in his opposition to postal ballots, tweeting that “Mail in ballots substantially increases the risk of crime and VOTER FRAUD!” (Political scientists who have studied the matter disagree.)


Democrats also have concerns. Nearly 40% of them say they would support a candidate calling for the election to be re-run if they won the nationwide popular vote but lost the majority of electoral-college votes—as was the case when Mr Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. And 57% support a re-run if investigators find credible evidence of foreign interference in the process.

Perhaps most alarming is the finding that roughly two out of every ten partisans (declared Democrats and Republicans) say there would be a “little” or even a “great deal” of justification for violence if their candidate loses. Americans are right to be concerned about the fairness of the electoral process. To remain healthy, democracy needs the buy-in of voters and a willingness by all to accept the result.