Earlier this month, Washington vetoed yet another UN security council resolution,  supported by all the other members, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Commenting on the council’s failure to pass the resolution, China’s ambassador to the  UN, Fu Cong, accurately remarked that the vote result “once again exposes that the  root cause of the council’s inability to quell the conflict in Gaza is the repeated  obstruction of the US”. Indeed, as long as Israel can rely on the protection of its  superpower patron, it can feel empowered to disregard the increasing global pressure against it to cease its crimes. The horrors in Gaza have reached such levels of cruelty  and devastation that even the governments of Canada, the UK, and France have now  strongly denounced Israel’s atrocities, threatening Israel with “concrete actions” if it  persists in its campaign in Gaza. The Trump administration, though, has remained  steadfast in its support for Israel, surpassing even Joe Biden’s extreme support for  Israel’s actions. Therefore, the Israeli government can feel unthreatened by (from its point of view) irrelevant global denunciations of its crimes, and Israeli Prime Minister  Benjamin Netanyahu can continue to make a mockery of the UN, dismissing it as an  “antisemitic swamp”. 

US support for Israel, however, is not set in stone, and there has been a remarkable  shift in US public opinion concerning Israel in recent years. A Gallup poll conducted  earlier this year found that less than half in the US are now sympathetic toward Israelis,  the lowest level of support for the key American ally in the Middle East in 25 years of  Gallup’s annual tracking of the measure. Meanwhile, the number of US adults who  sympathize with the Palestinians (33 %) is the all-time highest reading by two points.  There is also a deep partisan split on the issue, with Republicans inclined to have a far  more favorable attitude towards Israel than Democrats, although even the number of younger Republicans with negative views on Israel has dramatically increased in recent  years. These significant shifts (which will probably intensify as Israel solidifies its status  as a global pariah through its lawlessness and destruction of Gaza) are not, however,  reflected in policy yet. Bipartisan support for Israel remains strong, and figures like  Congressman Thomas Massie and the progressives Democrats that are critical of Israel are still a minority in US Congress.  

It is, however, conceivable that the US public’s increasingly critical views on Israel  could eventually compel the political leadership in Washington to change course on the  Israel-Palestine issue. The US government could, for instance, be pressured to follow  the radical course of abiding by US law. The Leahy Law explicitly forbids the US 

government from providing military assistance to foreign security force units that are  involved in serious human rights violations. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) should  undoubtedly be disqualified from receiving US military aid under this law, given its  conduct in the current Gaza conflict (not to mention its decades-long oppression of the  Palestinian people). However, as Charles Blaha, a former US State Department official,  has stated, information that “for any other country would without question result in  ineligibility is insufficient for Israeli security force units”, criticizing the Department for  “non-compliance with the law”. In 2021, US Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth  Warren proposed conditioning US military aid to Israel on Israel ending its human rights  violations and illegal settlement expansion in the occupied territories. Last fall, Sanders  undertook a failed effort in the Senate to block arms sales to Israel (with most Democrats joining all Republicans in opposing the move). In 2021, Congresswoman Betty McCollum, with the support of 13 progressives in the US House of  Representatives, introduced a bill that would prohibit US aid from being used to fund  violations of Palestinians’ human rights. Earlier this year, Congressman Massie urged the US government to end all military aid to Israel. Combined with the pressure and  protests of a dedicated US public, these initiatives could bring about a fundamental  change in US-Israel relations, which could compel Israel to seriously sue for peace and  facilitate the realization of the two-state solution. 

It could also be noted that the supporters of Israel realize perfectly well that these shifts  in public opinion could erode future US support for Israel. A paper published earlier this  year by the Institute for National Security Studies, a major Israeli think tank, warns that  “[t]he dangers of diminished US support, particularly as it reflects long-term and deeply  rooted trends, cannot be overstated” and that “[i]f current trends continue, rank and  file members of Congress will almost certainly include more critics of the US-Israel  alliance and more members for whom it is simply not a priority”. To ward off this  danger, the paper’s author, professor Theodore Sasson, suggests, among other things,  that “Israel should pursue bilateral security agreements with the United States that  leverage the Republican administration’s political support and bind future governments  to the US-Israel alliance”. In other words, Israel should seek to make US support  immutable and irreversible, no matter what the US public may prefer in the future.  Similar worries were reflected in AIPAC’s spending bonanza last year to ensure the  defeats of pro-Palestine candidates in Democratic primaries. AIPAC spent $8.5 million to defeat Democratic Congresswoman Cori Bush in Missouri, while also devoting $17 million to bring down Democratic Congressman Jamal Bowman in New York.  

Despite the trends in US public opinion towards greater sympathy for the Palestinians  and the (limited) calls from lawmakers for a change in course, Biden and especially  Trump have been very reluctant to exercise US leverage on Israel to influence its  behavior. Biden did suspend some arms shipments to Israel, but his administration still  provided Israel with $17.9 billion for its military operations in Gaza and elsewhere

during the first year of the Gaza offensive, and under Trump, this support continues  even more strongly. This is, however, a somewhat substantial change from earlier  years, when various US presidents had no qualms in exerting US influence to modify or  temper Israel’s actions. In 1952, former US President Harry S. Truman threatened to  withhold economic aid to Israel unless it replaced notoriously violent guards along the  Jordan river, and Israel obeyed. In 1957, following the Israel-UK-France invasion of the  Suez Canal, parts of the Sinai and Gaza, former US President Dwight D. Eisenhower  managed to force Israel to withdraw with a threat of severe sanctions, including the  termination of all military assistance. Even the revered conservative hero, former US  President Ronald Reagan, often applied pressure on Israel, threatening to withhold US  military aid unless it complied with US demands. In one famous case, Reagan told  former Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin to stop the shelling of Lebanon, or the  future of the US-Israeli relationship would be “endangered”. Begin called Reagan 20  minutes after this ultimatum to inform him that Israel was complying. In 1992, when  Israel was seeking US financial assistance to resettle Soviet Jews, former US President  George H.W. Bush conditioned the approval of US loan guarantees to Israel on the  cessation of settlement expansion in the occupied territories. The Israeli Prime Minister  at the time, Yitzhak Rabin, relented and announced a halt on settlement construction,  although he did not really make good on his promise.  

Given the vast quantities of military aid Israel receives from the US, the American role in  reining in Israeli violence is crucial. However, a broader arms embargo on Israel would  also be desirable, and countries such as Spain, Japan, and Belgium have already  suspended arms sales to Israel. As with the application of the Leahy Law in the US,  there is nothing radical about this move, at least if we have even a minimal commitment  to international law. As UN experts have pointed out, “[a]ny transfer of weapons or  ammunition to Israel that would be used in Gaza is likely to violate international  humanitarian law and must cease immediately”, and “Israel has repeatedly failed to  comply with international law” in its Gaza offensive.  

The failure of the US and many other Western countries to honor their obligations under international law once again demonstrates that international law is invoked very  selectively. It is commonly used as a weapon against official enemies, while completely  ignored when adherence to it would be inconvenient. When Russia illegally invaded  Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin was widely denounced as a  war criminal, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) subsequently issuing an arrest  warrant for him was greatly cheered in the West. Meanwhile, many Western countries  still refuse to even suspend arms shipments to Israel, even though those arms are  being used in some of the most egregious assaults on civilians in recent history.  Furthermore, the ICC was subjected to angry, bipartisan denunciations in the US after it  issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli 

Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, even though any person with a moral bone in their body  would consider such arrest warrants to be obviously justified. 

Nevertheless, there is hope for the future. It is not a law of nature that the US should  have a government which ignores not only international and domestic laws but also  American public opinion. A committed US public could influence Washington’s stance  on the Israel-Palestine issue, which might enable the just aspirations of the Palestinian  people and help secure enduring peace.



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Jooel Heinonen

Jooel Heinonen has a masters degree in social sciences from the University of Helsinki, Finland. He can be reached at jooeljheinonen@gmail.com.