Trump Claims UK Has 500 Years Of Oil Reserves Left In The North Sea
- Donald Trump softened threats over Greenland and ruled out military action, while oil prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday amid de-escalation and headlines from the World Economic Forum.
- Trump’s North Sea claims were widely disputed, as regulators like the North Sea Transition Authority say the basin is mature.
- Experts note that most reserves already extracted, and remaining supplies may last decades or even years.
The U.S. stock market has pared back heavy losses it posted earlier in the week after U.S. President Donald Trump relented on his threat to slap European and NATO nations with tariffs for opposing his push to acquire Greenland. Trump also ruled out the use of military force to take over the semi-autonomous Danish territory, but said the U.S. will still pursue ownership of the country.
In contrast, oil prices have reversed course, slipping nearly 2% after Trump softened threats against Greenland and Iran. While President Trump dominated headlines and discussions at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos 2026 with his Greenland push and concerns over globalism, his controversial claims about renewable energy also drew attention. To wit, Trump claimed that the North Sea has 500 years of Oil & Gas reserves left, and dismissed Europe’s green energy policies as a “scam”. Trump also renewed his criticism of the UK government for restricting oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, as well as its decision to retain the energy profits levy (EPL).
“The United Kingdom produces just one-third of the total energy from all sources that it did in 1999 – think of that, one-third – and they’re sitting on top of the North Sea, one of the greatest reserves anywhere in the world, but they don’t use it, and that’s one reason why their energy has reached catastrophically low levels, with equally high prices,” Trump said.
“There are windmills all over Europe. There are windmills all over the place, and they are losers. One thing I’ve noticed is that the more windmills a country has, the more money that country loses and the worse that country is doing,” Trump said, also claiming that China manufactures windmills and sells them at huge profits but never installs them itself.
However, many of Trump’s claims are verifiably false. The North Sea is a mature oil and gas province, meaning much of the easily accessible oil and gas has already been produced, with over 90% of recoverable reserves extracted in the UK sector.
According to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the UK's energy regulator, the North Sea has ~2.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2024, suggesting only decades of supply, not hundreds of years as Trump claims.
Indeed, at current production rates, some analyses suggest the remaining reserves might last only about seven years, not centuries, highlighting the extreme overestimation in Trump's claim. The UK’s indigenous crude oil production in 2024 clocked in at ~320,000 barrels per day, enough for just 20% of the country’s consumption. To exacerbate matters, only 13% of that oil is refined in the country, a figure the ECIU has projected will fall to 1% by 2030 as North Sea production continues to decline.
“After more than fifty years, the UK has burned most of its gas and what’s left of the oil is increasingly difficult and expensive to extract,’’ Tessa Khan, executive director at environmental campaign group Uplift, said. “Regardless of any new drilling, the UK will be dependent on gas imports for nearly two-thirds of its gas in just five years time and almost 100 per cent by 2050.”
Trump’s claims about wind energy in Europe and China are also erroneous. An analysis by University College London has revealed that wind energy has lowered UK energy imports by 12% via interconnectors into the country and saved British consumers ~£104 billion ($140 billion) on their energy bills between 2010 and 2023. Wind energy is generally cheaper than most other power sources in Europe, particularly when compared to fossil fuel alternatives.
Despite recent inflationary pressures causing a temporary pause in cost reductions, onshore wind remains one of the most affordable sources of new electricity, frequently undercutting new coal and gas plants. The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for wind dropped dramatically by over 60% between 2010 and 2021. While costs plateaued or rose slightly around 2022–2023 due to supply chain issues and rising interest rates, they are expected to fall again as inflation eases and turbine prices recover. High gas prices, which exceeded €50/MWh in 2024, make renewable energy like wind a much cheaper alternative.
And finally, Trump’s claims about wind energy in China appear to be only partly true. According to a report by Ember, China spent $625 billion on clean energy investments in 2024, good for 31% of the global total, making it the biggest investor in renewable energy worldwide. Contrary to Trump’s claims, data indicates that China leads the world in wind power deployment, with installed capacity exceeding 600 GW by early 2026, and with the country accelerating deployment in recent years (around 100 GW in 2025 alone). China operates almost half of the world's offshore wind capacity, reaching 52 GW in 2025, more than the EU and UK combined.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
Wood Mackenzie Sees Sharp Pullback in UK North Sea Capex
- UK North Sea investment is set to slump sharply, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting UK upstream capex to fall below $3.5 billion in 2026.
- Claims of vast remaining reserves are overstated, as regulators like the North Sea Transition Authority estimate just ~2.9 billion boe left, with Wood Mackenzie warning this could be the last year UK production exceeds 1 million boe/d.
- A widening UK–Norway divide is emerging, with Norway maintaining strong spending and exploration under stable policies, while the UK sees falling activity
Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that the UK has 500 years of oil reserves left in the North Sea, and blamed the country’s high energy prices on the government’s unwillingness to drill. However, the unfortunate fact is that the North Sea oil and gas sector has been in a significant and prolonged decline due to the basin's aging oil fields, with production falling sharply since its peak in the early 2000s. According to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the UK's energy regulator, the North Sea had ~2.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2024, suggesting only decades of supply, not hundreds of years as Trump claims.
Indeed, WoodMac has predicted that the current year could be the last time the UK will produce over 1 million boe/d from the North Sea.
The North Sea decline has led to reduced investment, job losses, and increased UK reliance on imports, despite ongoing efforts to manage the energy transition. Meanwhile, high taxes and policy uncertainty, particularly the Energy Profits Levy, have been deterring new projects, accelerating consolidation, and shifting focus towards offshore wind. The UK Energy Profits Levy (EPL) is a temporary "windfall tax" with a headline rate of 78% on exceptional profits on UK oil and gas producers that was introduced in 2022 during the global energy crisis. EPL is set to end by March 2030, but will be replaced by a permanent, revenue-based Oil and Gas Price Mechanism (OGPM) from 2030, applying a 35% charge when prices are high, using thresholds like $90/barrel oil and 90p/therm gas. The EPL has been a point of contention for the industry due to its negative impact on investment.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, the North Sea upstream oil and gas sector in 2026 will be shaped by falling investment (particularly in the UK), continued M&A activity, regional divergence in Norway and the UK, ongoing energy transition pressures, and a strong focus on capital discipline as well as improved operational efficiency.
Here are five key North Sea upstream themes to look out for in 2026:
#1. Diverging Investment and Activity Levels
Investment in the North Sea upstream sector is projected to fall overall in 2026, driven by a significant decline in UK investment to less than $3.5 billion, its lowest real terms level since the 1970s. In contrast, Norway will maintain momentum with sustained development spending of around $20 billion, focusing on bringing major projects online quickly to maintain production plateaus and ensure European gas supply security. The UK's decline is linked to a tough fiscal and regulatory environment, while Norway will benefit from more stable policies and a robust project pipeline.
However, Woodmac has predicted that North Sea production will remain steady at ~5.3 million boe/d despite the spending pullback, thanks to new start-ups in both Norway and the UK. Norway’s production will plateau at around 4.1 million boe/d with Equinor's (NYSE:EQNR) Johan Castberg and Var Energi's Balder re-development accounting for over 50% of this new volume, while new projects will contribute another 500 000 boe/d. Norway is projected to bring six new start-ups online in the current year, with Equinor's 136 million boe Irpa gas field being a key highlight.
#2. Continued Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) and Corporate Restructuring
Uncertainty in the market will drive further M&A opportunities, especially in the UK, where consolidation of weaker players will continue. The UK landscape is expected to consolidate as companies with strong balance sheets acquire non-core assets, leveraging tax losses and decommissioning relief. Norway, meanwhile, is expected to see more limited, smaller asset deals. New business models and strategic joint ventures (such as the NEO NEXT+ collaboration) are also emerging as solutions to capital constraints and a way to manage risk and basin exposure.
#3. Intensified Focus on Capital Discipline and Efficiency
Amid expectations of lower oil prices (Brent is forecast to average around $57-$59/bbl) and an oversupplied market, North Sea companies will prioritize capital discipline amid financial constraints. Operators will concentrate investment on high-return, quick-return projects such as brownfield expansions and near-field tie-backs to existing infrastructure. This focus on efficiency is crucial for profitability in a challenging price environment.
#4. Energy Transition and Decarbonization Pressures
The industry remains under intense scrutiny to address climate concerns. Key themes include the mainstreaming of Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) projects and the potential for new policies regarding Scope 3 emissions reporting in Norway following legal challenges. The electrification of offshore operations and integrating renewable energy sources are also gaining traction as companies seek to reduce their carbon footprint and meet environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics.
#5. Targeted Exploration, Primarily in Norway
According to WoodMac, exploration activity in the North Sea will be almost exclusively a Norwegian endeavor in 2026, with operators planning to drill over 30 exploration wells. This contrasts sharply with the UK Continental Shelf, which saw no exploration wells drilled in 2025. Norwegian exploration is focused on high-impact prospects with clear paths to development, and appraisal wells on existing discoveries such as Afrodite, Carmen and Norma, which could unlock significant gas supplies for Europe.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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