Op-Ed: Iran war — ‘Vague American War Syndrome’ has come back for an encore
By Paul Wallis
Shia Muslim demonstrators hold a portrait of Iran's late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Srinagar on March 2, 2026 after restrictions were imposed amid protests over his death by US-Israel strikes - Copyright AFP Habib NAQASH
This war is already getting more disingenuous by the minute. The likely winner will be the oil sector, as usual.
If the Iranian regime falls, Big Oil gets another pet country to play with.
Inspiring, isn’t it?
Meanwhile, in the middle of a worldwide cost-of-living crisis, prices are going up as oil gets more expensive.
Any war also destroys US budget projections. It’s gonna be fun for someone, obviously.
And there’s more to come. According to the headlines 1700 targets have been hit by 4000 munitions. It’s barely the equivalent of a few days in Ukraine, but who remembers things?
Iran has launched at least 1000 missiles to little effect on neighboring countries. All-out aerial bombardment can only do so much. Iran is under no threat of invasion or any kind of external coercion.
Both sides are threatening major escalations in strikes.
This war can only be scripted so far. Day One of any war can’t be the whole story. The US is taking minimal risks, in theory, for now. The future could get a lot worse, and the war could globalize and drag out badly.
This is where ‘Vague American War Syndrome’ comes in. The US has a bad habit of never being able to turn off wars when it gets involved. They just keep going. The reasons for the wars vary, but that’s the common symptom of a war America won’t win.
In Korea, the status quo was restored after years. Millions died. In Vietnam, South Vietnam was lost, and millions died. In Afghanistan, inertia replaced objectivity, and the Taliban won, despite their military failures, and millions died. At no point was America clear about its objectives.
Add to this America’s brief attention span. Fairly soon, we’ll be at the “Look! A squirrel!” stage. America’s incredibly ineffective media aren’t going to generate much more than apathy. “Another disaster, so what?” is the likely outcome.
There’s a new issue this time, and it’s a possible precedent for both internal and external political failure.
Since when does America follow another country to war like a faithful rotting gerbil? Who’s directing US foreign policy?
The Trump administration’s unique ability to create a Coalition of the Unwilling on any subject is also now in play.
America’s Western allies are staying out. This is the incarnate form of lack of leadership.
Congress isn’t happy about being bypassed over starting a war. The midterms could derail the war with ease. Trump will go from lame duck to dead duck. That in turn means Israel is unsupported and a future administration may not be inclined to get dragged in. It also means any US commitments are to put it mildly in limbo until further notice. Try fighting a war on that basis.
How bad can it get? Bad enough.
Sometime in the next ten minutes, the geniuses will start wondering what might happen. This war may have been premeditated on the ground level, but not at the strategic long-term level.
Is Iran building a nuclear weapon? No, according to the IAEA.
Does Iran have weapons-grade materials? Yes.
Can Iran source weapons technology from just about anywhere on Earth? Yes.
Even Al Qaeda was looking at high school-level theory for bombs. Pakistan built nuclear weapons with outside help. A nuke doesn’t have to be delivered by missiles. It could be delivered by an innocent third party like a preloaded truck bomb or shipping container, for example. Dirty bombs are another cliché option.
It is incredibly naïve to think that Iran won’t be looking at any possible method of attacking Israel and the US. Think about a global Vietnam with added nukes. This mess could go on for years.
Humanity will not benefit from any of it. This really is “A War Too Far” in too many ways.
It’s Cynics vs Idiots, and you get to guess which is which.
By Paul Wallis
EDITOR AT LARGE
DIGITAL JOURNAL
March 3, 2026Shia Muslim demonstrators hold a portrait of Iran's late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Srinagar on March 2, 2026 after restrictions were imposed amid protests over his death by US-Israel strikes - Copyright AFP Habib NAQASH
This war is already getting more disingenuous by the minute. The likely winner will be the oil sector, as usual.
If the Iranian regime falls, Big Oil gets another pet country to play with.
Inspiring, isn’t it?
Meanwhile, in the middle of a worldwide cost-of-living crisis, prices are going up as oil gets more expensive.
Any war also destroys US budget projections. It’s gonna be fun for someone, obviously.
And there’s more to come. According to the headlines 1700 targets have been hit by 4000 munitions. It’s barely the equivalent of a few days in Ukraine, but who remembers things?
Iran has launched at least 1000 missiles to little effect on neighboring countries. All-out aerial bombardment can only do so much. Iran is under no threat of invasion or any kind of external coercion.
Both sides are threatening major escalations in strikes.
This war can only be scripted so far. Day One of any war can’t be the whole story. The US is taking minimal risks, in theory, for now. The future could get a lot worse, and the war could globalize and drag out badly.
This is where ‘Vague American War Syndrome’ comes in. The US has a bad habit of never being able to turn off wars when it gets involved. They just keep going. The reasons for the wars vary, but that’s the common symptom of a war America won’t win.
In Korea, the status quo was restored after years. Millions died. In Vietnam, South Vietnam was lost, and millions died. In Afghanistan, inertia replaced objectivity, and the Taliban won, despite their military failures, and millions died. At no point was America clear about its objectives.
Add to this America’s brief attention span. Fairly soon, we’ll be at the “Look! A squirrel!” stage. America’s incredibly ineffective media aren’t going to generate much more than apathy. “Another disaster, so what?” is the likely outcome.
There’s a new issue this time, and it’s a possible precedent for both internal and external political failure.
Since when does America follow another country to war like a faithful rotting gerbil? Who’s directing US foreign policy?
The Trump administration’s unique ability to create a Coalition of the Unwilling on any subject is also now in play.
America’s Western allies are staying out. This is the incarnate form of lack of leadership.
Congress isn’t happy about being bypassed over starting a war. The midterms could derail the war with ease. Trump will go from lame duck to dead duck. That in turn means Israel is unsupported and a future administration may not be inclined to get dragged in. It also means any US commitments are to put it mildly in limbo until further notice. Try fighting a war on that basis.
How bad can it get? Bad enough.
Sometime in the next ten minutes, the geniuses will start wondering what might happen. This war may have been premeditated on the ground level, but not at the strategic long-term level.
Is Iran building a nuclear weapon? No, according to the IAEA.
Does Iran have weapons-grade materials? Yes.
Can Iran source weapons technology from just about anywhere on Earth? Yes.
Even Al Qaeda was looking at high school-level theory for bombs. Pakistan built nuclear weapons with outside help. A nuke doesn’t have to be delivered by missiles. It could be delivered by an innocent third party like a preloaded truck bomb or shipping container, for example. Dirty bombs are another cliché option.
It is incredibly naïve to think that Iran won’t be looking at any possible method of attacking Israel and the US. Think about a global Vietnam with added nukes. This mess could go on for years.
Humanity will not benefit from any of it. This really is “A War Too Far” in too many ways.
It’s Cynics vs Idiots, and you get to guess which is which.
By AFP
March 1, 2026
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly proclaimed himself the 'President of Peace' - Copyright AFP SAUL LOEB
Danny KEMP
On a US late-night television show Saturday, the host played a clip from 2011 of a businessman warning that president Barack Obama “will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate.”
That businessman was Donald Trump. Fast-forward 15 years and Trump, now in his own second term as president, ordered huge military strikes on Iran when talks with Tehran brought no breakthrough.
The commander-in-chief has repeatedly declared himself to be a “President of Peace,” boasted of his dealmaking ability in ending global conflicts, and complained of being cheated of the Nobel Peace Prize.
His rise to power in 2016 on an “America First” platform was partly fueled by his rejection of bloody foreign wars waged by the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Back on the campaign trail in 2024, he repeatedly said he had started “no new wars.” After returning to the White House he slammed the “so-called nation-builders” who “wrecked far more nations than they built.”
In line with his vision of himself, Trump earlier this year held the first meeting of his “Board of Peace” — a body originally created to uphold the Gaza ceasefire that has morphed into a would-be United Nations featuring several authoritarians.
When the Nobel academy snubbed him, Trump even proudly accepted a peace award from football’s world governing body FIFA that appeared to have been specially created for him.
– ‘Major surprise’ –
But in the second year of his second term, Trump suddenly appears as comfortable prosecuting war as making peace.
In the space of less than two months, the man who once shunned “regime change” has reveled in the military operations that toppled Venezuela’s president and killed the supreme leader of Iran.
That’s not to mention threatening a military takeover of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark.
“All this comes as a major surprise,” said Richard Haass, a former diplomat in president George W. Bush’s administration.
“This is an administration that has shown no interest in regime change or democracy promotion elsewhere,” Haass said in a newsletter. “Why here and now is a mystery as there is no clear evidence that the Iranian regime (however unpopular and weakened) is on the edge of collapse.”
The scion of a property empire, Trump himself avoided the draft for the Vietnam war.
But the former military academy student has long shown a fascination for martial trappings, often surrounding himself with soldiers and visiting military sites.
He frequently brags about US military might, including in last year’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and boasted of restoring America’s fighting force to its former glories with new battleships that critics say would be sitting ducks for missiles.
– ‘I got power’ –
The question now is what effect Trump’s wars will have on US voters, especially the Trump supporters who believed his campaign promises to end its “forever wars.”
The first major test will be the American public’s willingness to tolerate military casualties, with the announcement Sunday of the first three service members to die in action against Iran.
After the strikes, only one in four Americans approved of the attacks while 43 percent disapproved, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday.
Trump’s wars could figure heavily in the November’s midterm elections, in which Republicans already fear they could lose control of the House of Representatives.
Trump is deep under water in the polls thanks largely to voters still feeling the pinch from the cost of living — an issue the Iran strikes could exacerbate if oil prices spike.
The effect on his base will be a particular concern. Former “Make America Great Again” firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene, who split from Trump last year, called the Iran attack a “lie.”
But Trump makes no bones about how he enjoys commanding the world’s most powerful military.
Welcoming the Florida Panthers ice hockey team to the White House in January, Trump joked that he hated the assembled players because of their good looks and “all this power.”
“But I got power too, it’s called the United States military,” he said.
Op-Ed: Yes, it’s a real war with Iran. What is supposed to be achieved?
By Paul Wallis
EDITOR AT LARGE
DIGITAL JOURNAL
February 28, 2026
Smoke rose above Tehran after explosions were heard - Copyright AFP -
Reports from the first day of Israeli and US strikes on Iran are a predictable mix of claims and counterclaims.
In the real world, things are much less clear.
A big spread of “hundreds” of strikes across Iran was carried out by the US and Israel. This suggests that planning was intensive and was underway well before the strikes. There’s a long legacy of US conflict with Iran, and this is its worst manifestation yet.
Khamenei may be dead, or not. According to some reports, senior Iranian commanders were killed. This is standard practice. Eliminating command and control is canon doctrine. The next few days will show who’s in charge in Iran.
Russia isn’t able to do much, if anything at all, to help its ally. Russia and Iran are joined at the hip in Ukraine. Putin has yet again been sidelined. It’s highly unlikely that Russia will participate directly in combat or in much more than press releases.
China predicts that the “Israel-Iran conflict is unlikely to be contained”. That’s a very safe bet. China also expects a “strike and withdraw” posture from the US. That’s in line with previous US strikes, but if Israel continues to conduct its “Lion’s Roar” attacks, maybe not.
Iranian missile counterstrikes haven’t done any significant damage. The regime says it intends to deliver a “crushing” counterblow to the Israeli attacks. Technologically, Iran is well behind the eight ball in terms of capacity to penetrate US, Israeli, and regional defenses. Missile strikes can only have a percentile effect, and that percentage is likely to be low if the Iranians are using their known arsenal of antiques.
Military options are very limited. This type of attack is the only feasible option. A ground attack on Iran would be like Afghanistan cubed. It’s not even a good theoretical idea.
That’s hardly the whole story. The collateral spread is already apparent.The Gulf is likely to be closed indefinitely.
Airlines are diverting from the region.
Oil prices are expected to rise immediately.
Disruption to Middle East trade and shipping will affect global markets.
Iran’s client Yemeni agents have said they’ll start attacking shipping again.
This war could be unlike any other in the Middle East. Iran can definitely conduct regional attacks. It could be yet another endless Middle Eastern war, particularly if Iran can secure outside sources for supply.
February 28, 2026
Smoke rose above Tehran after explosions were heard - Copyright AFP -
Reports from the first day of Israeli and US strikes on Iran are a predictable mix of claims and counterclaims.
In the real world, things are much less clear.
A big spread of “hundreds” of strikes across Iran was carried out by the US and Israel. This suggests that planning was intensive and was underway well before the strikes. There’s a long legacy of US conflict with Iran, and this is its worst manifestation yet.
Khamenei may be dead, or not. According to some reports, senior Iranian commanders were killed. This is standard practice. Eliminating command and control is canon doctrine. The next few days will show who’s in charge in Iran.
Russia isn’t able to do much, if anything at all, to help its ally. Russia and Iran are joined at the hip in Ukraine. Putin has yet again been sidelined. It’s highly unlikely that Russia will participate directly in combat or in much more than press releases.
China predicts that the “Israel-Iran conflict is unlikely to be contained”. That’s a very safe bet. China also expects a “strike and withdraw” posture from the US. That’s in line with previous US strikes, but if Israel continues to conduct its “Lion’s Roar” attacks, maybe not.
Iranian missile counterstrikes haven’t done any significant damage. The regime says it intends to deliver a “crushing” counterblow to the Israeli attacks. Technologically, Iran is well behind the eight ball in terms of capacity to penetrate US, Israeli, and regional defenses. Missile strikes can only have a percentile effect, and that percentage is likely to be low if the Iranians are using their known arsenal of antiques.
Military options are very limited. This type of attack is the only feasible option. A ground attack on Iran would be like Afghanistan cubed. It’s not even a good theoretical idea.
That’s hardly the whole story. The collateral spread is already apparent.The Gulf is likely to be closed indefinitely.
Airlines are diverting from the region.
Oil prices are expected to rise immediately.
Disruption to Middle East trade and shipping will affect global markets.
Iran’s client Yemeni agents have said they’ll start attacking shipping again.
This war could be unlike any other in the Middle East. Iran can definitely conduct regional attacks. It could be yet another endless Middle Eastern war, particularly if Iran can secure outside sources for supply.
This combination of video grabs taken from UGC images posted on social media and verified by AFPTV teams show a repoted explosion in Tehran amid strikes by the United States and Israel – Copyright AFP Mandel NGAN
The question has to be “What’s the objective?
Regime change? That’s a very difficult task. The Iranian regime is deeply entrenched. Opposition forces don’t seem organized or strong enough to conduct a revolution. The brutal response to recent protests made that obvious. Even the number of dead from those protests isn’t known. The cited very vague figures of somewhere between 7000 and 30,000 people aren’t exactly definitive.
Shutting down Iranian operations against Israel? Unlikely at best, naïve at worst. Iran’s proxy forces can source weapons from the global arms trade with Iranian support. Those sources are in no danger from a few strikes on Iran. The war against Israel could go up a notch.
Forcing Iran to negotiate its nuclear capability? There’s a level of absurdity in this one. The US said they’d “obliterated” Iran’s nukes with previous strikes. Then they started negotiations regarding those nukes. The Iranians were negotiating. If nothing else, they now have an excuse not to negotiate. Far worse is the very obvious fact that Iran can develop its capacity outside Iran and build an arsenal. Nobody’s going to be striking Russia, China, and maybe Pakistan.
Now the other questions:
Can Iran do anything about the strikes to hit Israel and the US?
Yes, it can. Iran’s international reach is global. Terror attacks, targeted strikes in the US, and global strikes at high-profile US and Israeli targets are very likely. Israel is a somewhat harder target, with intense security measures, but even the Israelis don’t pretend to be totally invulnerable.
How does either side win?
The US and Israel win by forcing Iran into a peace agreement. That could take years. Iran is unlikely to give up quickly or easily. They could lose a lot of prestige and influence if they back down too much.
Iran wins by conducting a credible, prolonged terror campaign. They don’t have anything like the assets to win a conventional war. They can do serious damage to the oil sector by maintaining the conflict.
What are the risks of expanding the war?
If this war translates into an anti-Islamic war, the risks are potentially extremely serious. All that’s needed is the perception of the West and Israel vs Islam. There’s an entire subcontinent full of jihadis and ex-jihadis. ISIS is still around. There’s a global network of possible catalysts for expansion.
This war is an extension of an endless war.
____________________________________________________________
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
The question has to be “What’s the objective?
Regime change? That’s a very difficult task. The Iranian regime is deeply entrenched. Opposition forces don’t seem organized or strong enough to conduct a revolution. The brutal response to recent protests made that obvious. Even the number of dead from those protests isn’t known. The cited very vague figures of somewhere between 7000 and 30,000 people aren’t exactly definitive.
Shutting down Iranian operations against Israel? Unlikely at best, naïve at worst. Iran’s proxy forces can source weapons from the global arms trade with Iranian support. Those sources are in no danger from a few strikes on Iran. The war against Israel could go up a notch.
Forcing Iran to negotiate its nuclear capability? There’s a level of absurdity in this one. The US said they’d “obliterated” Iran’s nukes with previous strikes. Then they started negotiations regarding those nukes. The Iranians were negotiating. If nothing else, they now have an excuse not to negotiate. Far worse is the very obvious fact that Iran can develop its capacity outside Iran and build an arsenal. Nobody’s going to be striking Russia, China, and maybe Pakistan.
Now the other questions:
Can Iran do anything about the strikes to hit Israel and the US?
Yes, it can. Iran’s international reach is global. Terror attacks, targeted strikes in the US, and global strikes at high-profile US and Israeli targets are very likely. Israel is a somewhat harder target, with intense security measures, but even the Israelis don’t pretend to be totally invulnerable.
How does either side win?
The US and Israel win by forcing Iran into a peace agreement. That could take years. Iran is unlikely to give up quickly or easily. They could lose a lot of prestige and influence if they back down too much.
Iran wins by conducting a credible, prolonged terror campaign. They don’t have anything like the assets to win a conventional war. They can do serious damage to the oil sector by maintaining the conflict.
What are the risks of expanding the war?
If this war translates into an anti-Islamic war, the risks are potentially extremely serious. All that’s needed is the perception of the West and Israel vs Islam. There’s an entire subcontinent full of jihadis and ex-jihadis. ISIS is still around. There’s a global network of possible catalysts for expansion.
This war is an extension of an endless war.
____________________________________________________________
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
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