Shortly before World War I, when the smell of war was in the air, one of the most eloquent advocates of peace, the writer Romain Rolland, winner of the 1915 Nobel Prize in Literature, wrote that the urgency of the moment no longer allowed for analytical circumspection regarding the complexity of the factors driving the war. War could begin at any moment, even before we had finished our reflections. I may be completely wrong, but today I feel the same perplexity that haunted Rolland in the months leading up to the start of World War I. For this reason, this text will displease my usual readers. And, to complicate matters, I ardently wish to be wrong when I write, in what follows, about the imminence of war.

Unlike in previous wars, fewer people in the world can claim to be surprised when news of the next global war breaks. The signs are very clear and well known. As with previous empires, the decline of American imperialism will be slow and violent until a war precipitates its end. In 1914, there were four great empires: German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman. None of them survived World War I. The empires based on colonies remained (British, French, Italian, Japanese, Portuguese, Dutch, Belgian, and Spanish). None of them survived World War II, although they lingered for some time (the Portuguese until 1975).

What empires exist today? If we understand empire to mean any large-scale political unit with a central power that exercises control over distinct peoples treated differently as a result of military conquest, colonization, or economic pressure, we can say that the following empires exist today: the US, China, Russia, Israel, and the European Union. It may be surprising to include Israel in the list, because its scale is smaller. But on the other hand, it is the country that most directly assumes the oldest forms of imperial domination: military conquest and colonization. It may also be surprising that the European Union is considered an empire. It is a quasi-empire, an empire in the making. It was not originally, but it has been becoming one as the political asymmetry between the peoples that constitute it increases (imperial relations between countries that are supposedly equal in the sharing of sovereignty) and it prepares for military aggression (even if justified as military defense). The new imperial rivalry can be defined as follows: on one side, the US, the EU, and Israel; on the other, China and Russia. Each group has a leader who defines a collective strategy. Currently, the leaders are the US and China.

Each imperial group defends the idea of multipolarity as long as it suits its strengthening. It continues to suit China, but no longer suits the US. It is this asymmetry that will lead to the next war. But rivals avoid confronting each other directly for as long as possible. To this end, they use proxy wars with the aim of weakening their rival. The first proxy war is the Russia-Ukraine war, a war encouraged by the US to neutralize one of China’s main allies—Russia. As long as it needs the US to end the war with Ukraine, Russia will not interfere in any other US imperial intervention.

The second proxy war was the Israel-Palestine war, with the aim of consolidating the historic defeat of Islam dating back to the Crusades. Because of this defeat, Islamic countries have always been under suspicion because their loyalty to the Christian powers that historically defeated them is always seen as a matter of convenience. The way they have behaved in the face of the Israeli-Palestinian war shows the US-EU-Israel imperial group that Islam is well neutralized. With one exception, Iran, the only state that defines itself as a theocracy and, as such, sees the wound of historic defeat as permanently bleeding. Iran cannot be neutralized. It must be destroyed. The same can be said of Cuba, but Cuba is not as important to China or Russia as Iran is.

For this reason, I am convinced that war will begin and Iran will be at the center of that war. The problem is that Iran is much stronger than Ukraine or Palestine, and therefore a proxy war against Iran will have unpredictable consequences. Among these, the least unpredictable is the generalization of the war when China concludes that, with the defeat of Iran (which is very likely), it will no longer have access to the energy resources essential for its expansion. It should be borne in mind that China has just suffered a huge defeat in Venezuela and that Latin American countries are to China what Middle Eastern countries are to the US. Their loyalty stems from convenience and, moreover, they are under increasing US pressure to reduce their relations with China.

It is therefore very likely that World War III will begin. As I said, the signs are evident, but that does not mean it will not come as a surprise. Just as Cuba is the same as Gaza, but without bombs, World War III could begin with any weak link in US-EU-Israel imperialism. I suspect that this weak link is the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The war begins with the loss of economic power on a global scale and escalates with the collapse of dollar-based financial capital. Bombs can be used as causes or as consequences. The only way this will not happen is if the gold reserves that countries have been frantically accumulating prevent it. I highly doubt it.

Is there nothing we can do to prevent World War III?

Yes, there is.

1- An international petition asking UN Secretary-General António Guterres to resign immediately in view of the high probability of war and the UN’s inability to prevent it.

2- Take to the streets in defense of Cuba and Iran as we did in defense of Palestine.

3- Organize protests in front of the US and Israeli embassies and EU representations.

4- Considering that the most repugnant (though not the weakest) link in the US-EU-Israel triad is Israel, boycott Israel through the BDS movement.Email