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POLLING 338Canada:

A major warning sign for Jason Kenney’s UCP

Philippe J. Fournier 

3/14/2021

Since the Wildrose and PC merger back in 2017, the Alberta NDP didn’t lead in any voting intention polls in the province until late fall of 2020. 

While several polls throughout 2020 clearly indicated that many Albertans were less than enthused with Jason Kenney’s handling of the pandemic, the United Conservative Party (UCP) was still consistently polling either in first place or tied with the NDP, until a poll from Research Co. measured the NDP with a narrow 3-point lead in December. 

Eyebrows were raised, but surely the new year would bring a return to normal?

© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. 

Kenney holds a COVID-19 briefing in Edmonton on March 20, 2020 (CP/Jason Franson)

In January, Mainstreet Research released its own numbers in the Western Standard which gave the NDP a stunning 17-point lead over the UCP, and a renewed Wildrose Party (now a pro-independence party), rising on the UCP’s right flank. However, it was argued that Mainstreet’s poll had coincided with the several media stories of UCP MLAs and staff who had travelled to sunny destinations during the Holiday break. Perhaps those numbers only reflected a knee-jerk, temporary anti-UCP sentiment that would subside in the following weeks?

Lo and behold: Two additional Alberta polls were released this week from the Angus Reid Institute and Léger, and, although both polls showed radically different numbers, they both confirm the UCP has been bleeding support since the end of 2020:

CLICK ON INFOGRAPICS  TO ENLARGE 

© Provided by Maclean's


First: The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) measured the NDP at 41 per cent province-wide, three points ahead of the UCP. Considering the size of the poll’s sample, this result should be read as a statistical tie between the two parties. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that this represents a 7-point swing in favour of the NDP compared to ARI’s previous Alberta poll in November. The poll’s regional subsamples indicates the NDP is leading in both Calgary and Edmonton, but trailing the UCP in the regions of Alberta. Of note: ARI measures a significant gender gap (which we have observed in previous Alberta polls): Among male voters, the UCP leads 42 to 36 per cent; among women voters, the NDP holds a 12-point lead (46 to 34 per cent).


Second: Léger, one of the top-rated pollsters in the country, released a real head-scratcher for Postmedia this weekend. According to this new poll, the NDP pulls ahead with 51 per cent of voting intentions in the province, a crushing 21-point margin over the UCP among decided and leaning voters. The NDP leads by 40 points in Edmonton, 16 points in Calgary, and, more shockingly, 9 points in the regions of Alberta. Rachel Notley’s NDP is also in first among all age groups—including a 32-point lead among the 18 to 34 year-old demographic. The poll shows no significant gender gap however: the NDP is ahead by 19 points with men and by 23 points among women.

What to make of these diverging numbers? Canadian pollsters as a general rule have had a rough time in recent Alberta elections. In the 2019 provincial Alberta election, Léger underestimated the UCP by five points, and Angus Reid overestimated the NDP by 6 points. Months later in the federal election, although polling firms scored generally well in their national numbers, polls underestimated the federal Conservatives in Alberta by an average of 10 points. Naturally, two occurrences don’t make a rule, but it does at least make us weary that polls may once again be underestimating the right-wing vote in the province.

© Provided by Maclean's



We add these newest polls in the 338Canada Alberta model and present today this updated Alberta projection. A word of warning before going further however: Readers will notice a high degree of uncertainty in these projections. These large confidence intervals are not a bug, but a feature, caused by the significant spread in the latest polls. When data is uncertain, projections are bound to be uncertain as well.

If an election were held in Alberta this week, the NDP and UCP would be projected in a dead heat that could be decided by no more than a handful of districts. The NDP wins an average of 45 seats, including near-sweeps of Edmonton and Calgary. As for the UCP, although it is projected ahead in 45 electoral districts, the fact that it is favoured in all eight “toss up” districts brings the party’s average to 42 seats. The threshold for a majority at the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is 44 seats:

© Provided by Maclean's



As you may notice on the graph below, both probability density curves overlap almost perfectly. The seat projection confidence intervals range roughly from the mid-30s to the mid-50s for both parties:

© Provided by Maclean's



The NDP wins 55 per cent of all 100,000 simulations performed by the 338Canada model, odds barely better than a coin flip. In a hypothetical scenario where numbers such as these are the last ones available before voting day, there would be no clear-cut favourite. The projection would simply be too close to call:

© Provided by Maclean's



Naturally, more polling would be necessary to have a clearer picture of the landscape as the UCP is nearing the mid-point of its mandate. Despite these poor results for the UCP, there are nevertheless some silver linings for Jason Kenney in these numbers.

First, poll after poll in the past six months, Kenney has been among the most poorly rated premier in Canada on his handling of the pandemic (Angus Reid’s had his approval rating at 39 per cent, and Léger at 40 per cent), yet his party is still projected in a dead heat with the NDP. The election is still two years away, so there is, theoretically, plenty of time for the UCP to rebound.

Second, the UCP still enjoys a mathematical seat advantage over the NDP. The projection shows the UCP could potentially lose the popular vote in a general election by as much 3 or 4 points behind the NDP, and still win the most seats. The fact that the NDP runs up the score with urban voters skews the projection in favour of the UCP—in ways similar to the federal Conservatives running up the score in Alberta and Saskatchewan in 2019, only to come up well short in the seat count despite winning the popular vote over the federal Liberals.

Additionally, the Léger poll also measured a high level of undecided and discreet voters (27 per cent). Could conservative voters in Alberta currently unsatisfied with the UCP and Jason Kenney decide to “park” their theoretical vote with undecideds, but still come back into the UCP fold come next election? It certainly is a plausible hypothesis.

Still, this should be a major warning sign to the UCP. Complacency was among the many factors that sank the Progressive Conservatives in the 2015 election, which resulted with a near-perfect split of the right-of-centre vote between the PC and former Wildrose, and allowing the NDP to sneak through both of them. Disgruntled voters tend to vote in lesser droves than motivated ones, and clearly the NDP base appears motivated to regain power in Edmonton in two years—something no political party in Alberta has ever done.

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For details on this Alberta projection, visit the 338Canada Alberta page. Find your home riding in this list or use the regional links below:
Calgary
Edmonton
Northern Alberta
Central Alberta
Southern Alberta

The future of Big Oil flaring in the Permian Basin and the climate challenge

Samantha Subin CNBC

3/14/2021

The recent Texas extreme weather events, energy supply shortages and power outages heightened attention to the issue of flaring in the oil and gas industry.

Greenhouse gas emissions through routine natural gas flaring is widespread among energy companies as part of crude oil production.

Global gas flares emit more than 300 million tons of CO2 every year, and some U.S. states have begun targeting the practice through legislation.

© Provided by CNBC Pumpjacks operate in the snow in the Permian Basin in Midland, Texas, U.S, on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2021.

When a raging snowstorm and frigid temperatures hit Texas last month, oil and gas behemoths responsible for producing and processing the lion share of the nation's reserves, including Exxon, Occidental and Marathon Petroleum, shut down production at oil wells and refineries across the state.

For many oil producers in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the shutdown put upstream and downstream operations in a squeeze. Downstream, multiple refining operations flared during shutdowns, releasing air pollutants from processing units. Upstream, as oil drilling came back online, there was risk of needing to flare or halt oil production in the field until the broader energy market, including refining and utility generation, stabilized. Indeed, satellite imagery showed increased flaring at oil and gas production sites in the Permian Basin did take place, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.

But at Occidental, a choice was made to shut down some operations.

"There were a couple of plants that had difficulty coming back online," Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub said during a recent CNBC Evolve event focused on energy innovation. "We could have put our production back online and just flared the gas. We chose not to do that. We left the production shut down because we didn't want to flare."

The decisions made during the Texas power crisis are part of a broader debate with the oil and gas industry over flaring, the process of releasing greenhouse gas emissions through burning, which has long been a controversial topic for environmental advocates and climate policy experts. The practice, which is commonly used by oil and gas companies to relieve the pressure that builds up during oil production, is responsible for releasing CO2 and methane into the atmosphere.

VIDEO OCCIDENTAL CEO The future of Big Oil flaring in the Permian Basin and the climate challenge (msn.com)

A more ambitious Big Oil goal

The flaring issue is a global one. According to the World Bank Group, global gas flares burn approximately 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, emitting more than 300 million tons of CO2. Hundreds of companies, governments and oil corporations around the world have signed onto the organization's Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 Initiative, which aims to eliminate all routine flaring within the next decade. While flaring is often used in cases where there's safety concerns or maintenance issues, routine flaring means the flaring of gas associated with oil production.

Several big oil and gas companies including Occidental, Chevron and Shell have signed onto the pact. Zubin Bamji, program manager of the World Bank's Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership, said reducing gas flaring is attainable for many of these companies and is a "low-hanging fruit" among other methods to reduce emissions.

Some experts say U.S. companies, specifically, need a more ambitious goal toward stopping routine flaring. The World Bank agreement focuses predominantly on reducing emissions in countries lacking the regulatory capacity and the infrastructure, but some experts say U.S. companies can accomplish the feat by 2025.

"Here in Texas, we're talking about a 100-year-old basin," said Colin Leyden, the director of regulatory and legislative affairs the Environmental Defense Fund. "2030 works on the global framework, but it lacks ambition domestically here in the U.S."

But flaring often remains a cheaper alternative to pushing the gas to market, and flaring often comes down to the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Alternatives to flaring

The process of halting routine flaring, by methods such as rewiring gas for electricity or internal uses, isn't difficult in and of itself, says Gunnar Schade, an atmospheric scientist and associate professor at Texas A&M University who has written extensively on the topic. The technology is there, it's a question of whether the companies want to make the investment and put in the money.

Occidental's New Mexico operations now use a gas gathering system linked to third-party capacity and pipeline supply arrangements which it says reduced 2019 annual carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) flaring emissions by more than 60% versus what would have been emitted otherwise, and that can be used in other upstream oil and gas projects to reduce flaring, the company said in an annual climate report.

As one recent report on flaring stated, "If most associated gas goes to sales, the dilemma about how to manage it becomes largely moot."

Getting natural gas out of the Permian Basin to market is the preferred solution of the industry, but the natural gas market has been marked by oversupply and low prices for years, and for many companies, the economic analysis does not favor a major change in current operations.

There are onsite solutions that could become scalable. Some alternatives include building pipelines to pump gas back into businesses for heat and electricity, or the implementation of vapor recovery units which can collect vapors and reduce emissions.

"The important thing to realize here is that stopping entails investments because flaring is free, you don't have to pay anything for it, the atmosphere is a free sewer," Schade said.

Renewed focus on climate change

If natural gas prices were higher on a consistent basis, the flaring issue would not be as significant, Leyden says, but with a long-term, low-price outlook for natural gas, a new regulatory framework to realign incentives is needed.

Flaring is currently legal, meaning regulatory policies that encourage using gas for other purposes are required. Some states are making progress. New Mexico recently began debating a bill to manage flaring and venting, while advocacy groups and legislatures in Texas are slated to debate two bills which target the practice, one of which would put a 25% tax on gas vented or flared while extracting oil.

Typically, flaring involves burning off the gas atop a large tower or stack. It's often used when oil companies lack facilities or markets available for the leftover gas. While the practice may be more environmentally friendly than venting, a process which releases natural gas straight into the atmosphere, it's still a key source of methane, CO2 and emissions of other problematic compounds which can have drastic effects on human health.

Technological advancements over the years have streamlined the process of flaring and its efficiency, but organizations still say the practice is responsible for a large portion of emissions. According to data from The World Bank, between 2014 and 2018, the United States ranked among the top five flaring countries globally, behind Russia, Iraq and Iran.

In recent years, oil giants have increased focus on emissions reduction, including Exxon, which plans to cut methane emissions by 40% to 50% and flaring by 35% to 45% by 2025. British oil giant BP and Royal Dutch Shell outlined plans toward net zero emissions by 2050. An end to routine flaring is part of these commitments, but the companies need to take the expensive steps now to reengineer their operations.

"There are a lot of different options out there, but the problem is they all come with a cost," Leyden said. "As long as flaring is an option because of a loose regulatory framework, it's going to be difficult for these options to catch on."

Occidental was the first U.S. oil company to sign onto the World Bank no flaring policy by 2030.

Texas energy crisis and new policy

Amid the Texas crisis, companies struggled to procure sources of power generations like natural gas, yet at the same time, companies continued to burn it off as natural gas and electricity prices rose, an issue that left some consumers and industry critics dumbfounded.

"I can tell you, we have flared in the past, we also have to flare sometimes when third party plants go down, but what we're trying best to do is minimize that," Hollub said at the recent CNBC Evolve event.

Many oil and gas companies like Occidental are more sensitive to the environmental issues at the forefront of investor efforts. The world's largest money manager, BlackRock, will require companies it invests in to disclose direct emissions. Earlier this year, President Biden rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement, calling on agencies to review and reinstate regulations dismissed under the Trump administration.

"I would much rather have us, business, do it ourselves and that's one of my big cries out in this letter: we need to do it ourselves before the government does it for us," said BlackRock CEO Larry Fink earlier this year after releasing the company's 2021 letter to CEOs, which called for more climate change disclosure from companies.

VIDEO The future of Big Oil flaring in the Permian Basin and the climate challenge (msn.com)

"We've had a lack of oversight on oil and gas," Leyden said.

The Railroad Commission of Texas, which has jurisdiction over the industry's operations but has not in the past cracked down on it, has recently moved to take a closer look as investors and legislators place more attention on the issue. The recent energy crisis could be a turning point for the self-regulation approach in the state.

"The large amounts of flaring are a microcosm of what can result from self regulation," Leyden said. "The investment community is lining up around 2025. It has to happen rapidly. 2030, that's a decade out and this is one of the easier things they can do from a policy standpoint."

The scale of flaring in the Permian is significant. New markets — and costs such as taxes on flaring or strict permitting requirements for new wells — could incentivize companies to see the economics of flaring differently, combined with the investor focus on ESG.

"If you have a policy that says we won't tolerate routine flaring, that you can't bring an oil well online, can't start pumping until you have destination for the gas, that will change the economics around midstream as well and increase the need to invest in the infrastructure," Leyden said.

A 2019 analysis from the Baker Institute at Rice University noted that if all flared or vented gas in the Permian was captured and liquefied, it could fill a Q-Max LNG carrier (the world's largest carrier size) every 10 days. The report added, "If that vessel went to China and discharged its cargo into a power plant, it could likely displace approximately 440 thousand tonnes of coal burned to generate electricity."

"Every company that has operations with flaring is now under pressure ... not just pressure from shareholders and employees but the entire world to reduce flaring and I don't see that focus and pressure letting off," said Amy Chronis, leader of Deloitte's U.S. oil, gas and chemicals sector.

Entire villages would be wiped out if natural disaster hit dam on PNG mine, critics say

Lyanne Togiba in Port Moresby and Ben Doherty Pacific Editor 

A proposed dam to hold billions of tonnes of mine waste near the head of Papua New Guinea’s longest river is a potential environmental disaster that could wipe out entire villages if there was a natural disaster, government officials, environmental advocacy groups and villagers living along the river say.

© Photograph: Renato Granieri/Alamy A man paddles a canoe on the Sepik River in Papua New Guinea

The Frieda River gold and copper mine – slated for development by Chinese state-owned, Australian-based miner PanAust for northern New Guinea island – would be the largest mine in PNG’s history, and one of the biggest in the world.

Part of the mine’s proposal would be a 12,000ha reservoir built to hold more than 4.6bn tonnes of waste rock and mine tailings. The reservoir would hold 9.6bn cubic metres of water – twice the size of Sydney harbour – and the embankment built to hold it would be 187 metres high.

Related: Papua New Guinea chiefs call for halt to plan for country's largest ever mine

The Frieda River is a tributary to the Sepik River which, at 1,100km is PNG’s longest river and a key source of water, food and livelihood for tens of thousands who live along it.

West Sepik provincial administrator Conrad Tilau told the Guardian the government’s position was clear: “There should not be any dam built at the Frieda.

“The formation of the rocks under where the dam will be built is not safe, and also because … the water contained in the dam will be huge. If there is a fault in the structure, the dam will give way.

“The company must look for other alternatives to dispose of the waste like the option of deep sea tailings placement … but not the dam.”

A new report by environmental advocacy organisation Jubilee Australia details environmental and social issues presented by the proposed mine, arguing PNG risks repeating the environmental catastrophes of Ok Tedi and Panguna which devastated rivers, poisoned water sources and destroyed croplands in western province and Bougainville.

“The immense size of the mine, the low ore grade, the very large amount of waste rock, the seismic conditions, the high rainfall, mountainous terrain, all of these things are red flags in terms of the risks,” Jubilee executive director Luke Fletcher said, citing the 2015 Brazilian mine dam failure that killed 19 people, and spread toxic waste hundreds of kilometres.

“If there is a dam failure – and the dam break analysis has not been publicly released – it has the potential to be another Samarco-type collapse.”

Jubilee argued a potential alternative to the tailings dam, deep-sea tailings disposal – where mine waste is piped directly to the ocean to settle, ultimately, on the sea floor – presented significant environmental risks as well, including causing the buildup of toxic metals in the ocean ecosystem.

“These metals can build up in the food chain and cause harm to larger organisms such as fish and, eventually, people,” it said. “This risk is largely unknown as there is little research that quantifies what toxicity deep sea organisms can safely endure.”

In its environmental impact statement, PanAust said the “nation-building project … presents broad commercial and socioeconomic development opportunities for Papua New Guinea”. The mine plan also includes a hydroelectric plant, power grid, and road, airport and seaport upgrades.

The EIS estimates 2.9bn tonnes of mine waste would be produced over the 33-year life of the mine – half as tailings and half as waste rock.

A “dam break analysis” had ensured “appropriate factors of safety have been incorporated into the design” of the dam, which would sit 40km upstream of the head of the Sepik River.

“The probability of a failure is very unlikely,” the EIS said. “However, the extreme consequences of complete failure leading to the uncontrolled release of large quantities of water and solids (from waste rock and tailings placement) would likely result in extreme downstream environmental and social impacts.”

PanAust declined to respond to a series of questions from the Guardian. The company has not proposed deep-sea tailings disposal.

PNG’s centre for environmental law and community rights and landowner advocacy group Project Sepik argued there was significant risk of a dam break, citing 10 reports provided to the Conservation Environment and Protection Authority in 2020.

Related: Plan for largest mine in Papua New Guinea history 'appears to disregard human rights', UN says

“The Frieda River tailings dam has a medium risk of dam breakage as a result of: the extremely large amount of mine waste and tailings that will be produced; the rugged terrain; extremely high average annual rainfall … around 8 metres per year … and the mine to be located in a seismically active area which between 2010 and 2017 saw five earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.”

Emmanuel Peni, coordinator of campaign group Save the Sepik, said the dam risked wiping out villages downstream and poisoning the rivers that thousands depend on.

“The scientific reports all point out conclusively [that] it’s not a safe place or right place to build a dam or any large construction.”

Chiefs from 28 haus tambarans – “spirit houses” – representing nearly 80,000 people along the Sepik River have issued the collective Supreme Sukundimi Declaration calling for “a total ban on the Frieda River mine”.

Bernie Sanders Asks Jeff Bezos 'What Is Your Problem' With Amazon Workers Organizing

Benjamin Fearnow 

3/14/2021

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders challenged Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to explain reports of the retailing giant's alleged aggressive anti-union tactics being used to prevent workers from organizing at U.S. facilities.

© KENA BETANCUR / Stringer/Getty Images Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders arrive to deliver a major policy address on Wall Street reform in New York on January 5, 2016.

Bezos, who until his recent divorce was the richest man on Earth worth $184 billion, declined to attend this week's Senate Budget Committee hearing on income inequality. Sanders, who chairs the committee, personally invited the billionaire founder.

The national spotlight has focused on thousands of workers trying to form a union at an Amazon warehouse in Bessemer, Alabama. Bipartisan lawmakers including President Joe Biden and Florida GOP Senator Marco Rubio have publicly stated their support for the Alabama workers' unionization plan.

During his appearance on MSNBC Sunday, Sanders said that Bezos "can afford to pay them more." The senator then asked why the billionaire would even choose to oppose workers who are organizing to guarantee permanent, and not temporary, improvements in safety and job security.

.@SenSanders has a message for @JeffBezos: “Jeff you're worth $182B, that's a lot of money. What is your problem with allowing workers in Alabama to organize for better wages and working conditions? You can afford to pay them more.” #velshi pic.twitter.com/ukr1DvL6Pp— Ali Velshi (@AliVelshi) March 14, 2021

"I say to Jeff Bezos, the richest person on the planet: What is your problem with Amazon workers organizing for better working conditions and better pay? You are worth $182 BILLION. You cannot continue to have it all when so many are struggling," Sanders told MSNBC host Ali Velshi in response to Bezos declining his Senate invitation.

According to the pro-union labor group that represents the Amazon employees in Alabama, the workers are seeking "just-cause" instead of "at-will" employment, the ability to challenge write-ups and terminations perceived as wrongful, and safer conditions amid the pandemic.

In October, the company revealed 20,000 of its U.S. employees had tested positive or were presumed positive for COVID-19. Following backlash, those were the last such numbers produced by the company.

Video: After battling Trump, billionaire Bezos breaks with Trump over unions (MSNBC)

A Bessemer, Alabama, worker recently filed an unfair labor practices claim with the National Labor Relations Board that cited Amazon's corporate wing setting up DoItWithoutDues.com. The site makes false claims about employees in Alabama, a "right-to-work" state, being forced to pay union dues.


The Washington Post reported last week that anti-union flyers started popping up in Amazon warehouse bathrooms encouraging workers to oppose pro-union votes. The "aggressive fight" to halt unionization efforts was the key focal point of Sanders' criticism this week.

Newsweek reached out to Amazon and Sanders' office for additional remarks Sunday.

In an earlier statement sent to Newsweek from this past November, Amazon spokesperson Lisa Levandowski said: "We respect our employees' right to join or not join a labor union, but the fact is that Amazon already offers what these groups claim they want.

"We don't believe this group represents the majority of our employees' views. Our employees choose to work at Amazon because we offer some of the best jobs available everywhere we hire, and we encourage anyone to compare our overall pay, benefits, and workplace environment to any other company with similar jobs."

A Sanders' official Senate website has for years featured petitions that support unionization efforts at multi-billion dollar corporations like Amazon and Walmart. A recent Sanders petition and fundraising campaign featured a message from Sanders to Bezos.

"It is beyond absurd that you would make more money in ten seconds than the median employee of Amazon makes in an entire year...Meanwhile, thousands of Amazon employees are forced to rely on food stamps, Medicaid and public housing because their wages are too low. I don't believe that ordinary Americans should be subsidizing the wealthiest person in the world because you pay your employees inadequate wages," Sanders wrote.

Major arms sales flat in 2016-20 for first time in more than a decade

3/15/2021

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - International deliveries of arms were flat in the period 2016-2020, ending more than a decade of increases, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in a report on Monday.

© Reuters/US AIR FORCE FILE PHOTO: An F-35 pilot prepares for take off from the Vermont Air National Guard Base with the flag of the United States

The United States, France and Germany - three of the world's biggest exporters - increased deliveries, but falls in exports from Russian and China offset the rise, SIPRI said.

It was the first time since 2001–2005 that the volume of deliveries of major arms between countries - an indicator of demand - did not increase from the previous five year period, SIPRI said.

While the pandemic has shut down economies across the world and pushed many countries into deep recessions, SIPRI said it was too early to tell whether the slowdown in arms deliveries was likely to continue.

"The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic could see some countries reassessing their arms imports in the coming years," Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms and Military Expenditure Programme, said in a statement.

"However, at the same time, even at the height of the pandemic in 2020, several countries signed large contracts for major arms."

The United Arab Emirates, for example, recently signed an agreement with the United States to purchase 50 F-35 jets and up to 18 armed drones as part of a $23 billion package.

Middle Eastern countries accounted for the biggest increase in arms imports, up 25% in 2016–20 from 2011–15.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest arms importer, increased its arms imports by 61% and Qatar by 361%.

Asia and Oceania were the largest importing regions for major arms, receiving 42% of global arms transfers in 2016–20. India, Australia, China, South Korea and Pakistan were the biggest importers in the region.

"For many states in Asia and Oceania, a growing perception of China as a threat is the main driver for arms imports," said Siemon Wezeman, Senior Researcher at SIPRI, said.

(Reporting by Simon Johnson. Editing by Mark Potter)

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY 

NO REALLY, HE SAID THAT

Nebraska governor claims legalizing medical marijuana will 'kill your children'

© AP Photo/Nati Harnik Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts delivers the annual State of the State Address to lawmakers in Lincoln, Neb., 

Thursday, Jan. 14, 2021. AP

 Photo/Nati Harnik

ydzhanova@businessinsider.com (Yelena Dzhanova) 

Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts said legalizing medical marijuana would lead to kids dying.

Ricketts was citing a study that connected more frequent marijuana use among kids who die by suicide and states that already have legalized marijuana.

His remarks come as Nebraska's state legislature weighs a bill that would legalize medical marijuana.

The governor of Nebraska pushed back on the state's consideration of legalizing medical marijuana, claiming it would lead to the death of their kids.

"This is a dangerous drug that will impact our kids," Gov. Pete Ricketts said during a news briefing Wednesday. "If you legalize marijuana, you're gonna kill your kids. That's what the data shows from around the country."

Asked to elaborate on the data by USA TODAY, a spokesperson for Ricketts pointed to two studies that concluded teens who died by suicide in multiple states that had legalized marijuana used it more frequently.

His remarks come as Nebraska's state legislature weighs a bill that would make legal medical marijuana that's recommended by a practicing physician. The idea is that physicians would have control over their patients' marijuana consumption, the Lincoln Journal Star reported.

Though Ricketts' linked his claim to recreational marijuana, the bill being weighed would allow residents to use and consume medical marijuana in the form of pills or oils. Smoking marijuana would not be legalized upon this bill's passing.

Marijuana is federally designated as a Schedule 1 drug, meaning it has "no currently accepted medical use." However, "THC itself has proven medical benefits in particular formulations," according to the NIH National Institute on Drug Abuse. In terms of recreational usage, experts and agencies like the Centers for Disease Control say a "fatal overdose is unlikely."

Ricketts' office did not immediately return Insider's request for comment.

"Big pot, big marijuana is a big industry," he continued. "This a big industry that is trying not to be regulated, to go around the regulatory process. And that's going to put people at risk: when you go around regulations that are designed for the health and safety of our society."

Advocates in favor of the bill's passing include its sponsor, Lincoln, Nebraska, Sen. Anna Wishart, who on Wednesday delivered an impassioned argument in support, according to the Lincoln Journal Star.

"This bill is not going to fail because of a lack of compromise," Wishart said before the state's judiciary committee. "If this bill fails to pass, it is because of political pressure from a few who wield their power to stamp out the will of the people. The people will not be silenced."

If the bill doesn't pass, Wishart, a Democrat, said she expects activists to propose a ballot initiative that allows Nebraskans to vote. This, in turn, would give physicians less control over marijuana consumption and make it more difficult to regulate.

I Wish I Knew How It Would Feel To Be Free (live) by Nina Simone

 (FULL EXTENDED VERSION -- 1968)

This is the full audio of Nina Simone's extended live rendition of "I Wish I Knew How It Would Feel To Be Free," performed at the Westbury Music Fair of April 7, 1968.

Opinion: Jackson water crisis shows Nina Simone is still right about Mississippi\

Opinion by Keri Leigh Merritt 

CNN 3/14/2021

Summoned to the South by Marian Wright of the NAACP, Senators Robert F. Kennedy and Joseph Clark traveled to the Mississippi Delta in the Spring of 1967 to assess the effectiveness of the federal War on Poverty programs. Wright had testified before Congress that the people of her state were starving and in agony. Although forewarned, the White senators were stunned to witness the extremities of Mississippi's soul-crushing poverty, right in the middle of one of the wealthiest nations on earth.

© Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images A brother and sister sit while their mother volunteers at a water and food distribution drive in Jackson, Mississippi after the city was hit by back-to-back winter storms.

After repeated attempts to engage one young, seemingly non-verbal African American boy -- his stomach swollen from malnourishment -- picking through dried rice and beans on the dirt floor of a shack, Bobby Kennedy, the father of 11 children, quickly turned and walked outside. He did not want the photographers who accompanied him to catch the tears welling up in his eyes.

The depth of Mississippi's poverty was almost too much for Kennedy to bear. Speaking mournfully about "children with distended stomachs," Kennedy urged the federal government to do something to alleviate the state's widespread "suffering." Deeming "housing inadequate" and commenting on the "insufficient clothing" of the state's impoverished children, he rightfully concluded that Mississippi was a "terrible reflection on our society."

Now, 54 years later, it is necessary to ask the federal government to intervene in the state again. Many of the primarily Black residents of Mississippi's capital, Jackson, spent weeks without running water after a cold spell burst a huge number of the city's pipes. According to Mississippi Today, over 40,000 people, the equivalent of a sold-out game at Wrigley Field, were not able to drink, bathe or wash clothes, dishes, hands or even flush toilets -- all during a pandemic.

Over the past several days, the city has made significant progress in repairs, restoring water to most of its residents. However, two major, potentially deadly issues remain. First, the water pressure is extremely low and unreliable in certain neighborhoods, particularly in the poorer parts of south Jackson. More importantly, city testing has revealed that the water in Jackson is still unsafe to drink, as USA Today reported, "because of high turbidity -- cloudiness that increases the possibility water might contain disease-causing organisms."

The capital of an American state is still under a boil-water advisory -- an advisory originally issued nearly a month ago, on February 16. Jackson's problems, like those of so many other US towns and cities, are a blight on the political ideals White Americans traditionally claim.

Jackson, Mississippi, is a microcosm of our nation's massive failures to make amends for centuries of colonialism, slavery and racism. The story of Jackson is like those of Flint, Michigan; Centreville, Illinois; and Shreveport, Louisiana. While the details from each city may vary, the core issue that binds these places together in anguish is painfully obvious.

Our problem, our shame, is that American poverty springs not from lack of funds, but instead from White supremacy. Due to the ravages of history -- from slavery and the failures of Reconstruction to more modern tactics of redlining, White flight and the crisis of mass incarceration -- poverty in America is almost always dependent on racism, even when the impoverished are White. From pitting laborers of different races against each other to stoking racist and xenophobic fears through a sensationalistic and profit-driven media, America's White elite have always used the specter of racism to prevent the formation of a broad coalition of people with similar class interests, regardless of race.

And poor and working-class whites historically have been all-too-willing to join in this Faustian bargain.

We are one of the richest nations in the world, but among those nations, we are one of the most unequal. Nearly all other developed nations offer a better standard of living to their citizens, regardless of income or wealth.

Currently, White Republicans control Mississippi's state legislature. As Mississippi Free Press reported, Governor Tate Reeves and other White lawmakers are essentially holding the Black-led, Black-populated city hostage, refusing to fund repairs. While the citizens of his state are literally going on a month without the very basics of survival, Reeves instead focused his attention to passing the nation's first anti-transgender law of 2021.

The few repairs that have been made have mostly been in affluent, largely White north Jackson, clearly delineating not just the privileges, but the power of Whiteness. As State Representative Christopher M. Bell rightly told me, "My colleagues at the Mississippi Capitol have a history of accusing the City of Jackson's legislative delegation of asking for handouts versus help. They however have a different view of the predominantly White communities surrounding Jackson when they request support."

Jackson's Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba echoed Representative Bell's sentiments, knowing all too well how the state's long and sordid history has kept Black and brown citizens trapped in cyclical poverty, often without access to services most Americans believe are basic human rights -- from running water and electricity to housing, health care and food.

"The infrastructure challenges in Jackson and in similar Black communities across the country are inextricably linked to a legacy of racism, redlining, gerrymandering and systematic disinvestment in our communities over decades," Mayor Lumumba wrote in a statement Saturday. "It has compounded over time and now we must reconcile with how we fix it and find solutions forward. We must move away from a system of exclusion and exploitation, and towards a just city model."

The mayor's words ring true: According to Talk Poverty, as of 2020, nearly one-fifth of Mississippi's total population have incomes below the poverty line. The burden is even worse for the state's children, of whom an astounding 28% live in daily poverty. Among US states and the District of Columbia, Mississippi ranks dead last -- 51st -- for overall poverty.

Other Talk Poverty statistics reveal the staggering correlation between race and poverty. While 12% of Mississippi's White population lives in poverty, the numbers rise to close to 30.5%, 31% for African Americans and 32% for Native Americans.

As if the misery of a state awash in destitution, pain and suffering was not enough, Mississippi also has the odious distinction of ranking 49th in unemployment, 44th in higher education attainment, 50th in teen birth rate, 49th in assets and savings and 51st, dead last once again, for hunger and food insecurity.

To make matters even worse, nearly a quarter of the state's population had no health insurance at any time during 2020's pandemic. Simply put, Mississippi is one of the poorest, sickest states in the US.

Although reparate is no longer a common word, it is the key to successfully addressing reparations. To reparate means to restore something to a state of good repair; it means returning something to working order. Reparative justice means to right the wrongs of the past -- not only by acknowledging the harms of certain groups of people both in the past and the present, but also addressing those harms and working to ameliorate them.

As Nina Simone so brilliantly wrote about reparative justice in her iconic song "Mississippi Goddam," time is always of the essence:

But that's just the trouble

"do it slow"

Desegregation

"do it slow"

Mass participation

"do it slow"

Reunification

"do it slow"

Do things gradually

"do it slow"

But bring more tragedy.

While many White Mississippians in power like Tate Reeves and other GOP leaders -- wittingly or not -- extend the legacies of racism and the slaveholders' Confederacy and fail to act as White supremacy keeps state's people ensnared in extreme poverty, the time for federal intervention is now. If the leaders of the state will not repair and restore Jackson's water system, then the leaders of the country must step in to help right the wrongs of the past.

From immediately sending FEMA in to deal with Jackson's short-term problems to passing a Federal Jobs Guarantee that focuses, first and foremost, on reparative justice, the Biden administration and the Democratic Congress -- if they truly espouse the values they campaigned upon -- should act swiftly and thoroughly.

In 1968, less than a year after Senator Kennedy's Mississippi trip, Martin Luther King, Jr. wrote that "There is nothing new about poverty. What is new is that we now have the techniques and the resources to get rid of poverty. The real question is whether we have the will."

It is nothing short of a moral and ethical tragedy -- an indictment of the entire country -- that our citizens are being deprived of clean running water in one of the richest nations on earth. It is well past time for immediate federal action. We must have the will.

Mississippi Goddam.

Scientists Warn Human Impact On Amazon Rainforest Is ‘Worse Than We Realize'

The rainforest's climate is 'changing fast and in alarming ways', National Geographic claims and this has wide-reaching impacts on the entire planet

by Emily Baker

3/14/2021

Deforestation in the Amazon is detrimentally affecting its climate, and the planet's as a whole, warn scientists Credit: Adobe.

The Amazon Rainforest has been linked by scientists as a leading factor of increased global warming, due to deforestation and resource extraction at the hands of humans.

How humans ‘complicate natural cycles’ in the Amazon, such as logging and farming, is not only affecting its capability to absorb CO2, but contributing to global warming, reports National Geographic.

Scientists argue the world’s largest rainforest landscape may ‘release more carbon than they store’ and fear the rainforest is now a net contributor to climate change.

Climate change

Animal agriculture and meat consumption are widely blamed for causing deforestation and fires across the region by scientists and environmentalists worldwide.

The rainforest’s climate is ‘changing fast and in alarming ways’, National Geographic claims and this has wide-reaching impacts on the entire planet.

A recent report assessed the impact of Amazon rainforest destruction over fears it was rapidly approaching ‘tipping point’.

It was conducted by over 30 scientists and published in Frontiers. They looked at the causes behind interference in the Amazon’s capacity to absorb CO2.

Damming and soybean production for livestock is also altering the Amazon’s climate Credit: Adobe.  

Greenhouse gases

‘Activities in the Amazon, both natural and human-caused, can shift the rainforest’s contribution in significant ways’ according to National Geographic.


They can warm the air ‘directly’, or release other greenhouse gases that do. The article lists a range of resource extractions that can alter it. They include damming and soybean production for livestock feed.

Lead author Kristofer Covey told the organization: ‘Cutting the forest is interfering with its carbon uptake; that’s a problem…

‘When you start to look at these other factors alongside CO2, it gets really hard to see how the net effect isn’t that the Amazon as a whole is really warming global climate.’

Human impact on the Amazon Rainforest

Researcher Patrick Megonigal said the impact human activities have on the Amazon is ‘worse than we realize’.

Rising deforestation may alter the ‘flow of moisture’, another research protested in the article. This ‘could lead to the Amazon become a ‘drier woodland savanna’ permanently.

Moreover, humans have ‘diminished’ the rainforest’s capacity for offsetting its natural methane emissions.

Activists urged Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro to halt deforestation. The harmful practice reached an all-time high last year.

Myanmar coup: Organising resistance from neighbouring Thailand

As Myanmar's junta continues its deadly crackdown on protests against the February 1 coup, we take you to the border between Thailand and Myanmar. Free from the army's repressive tactics, exiled Burmese citizens, including a host of former political prisoners, are getting organised in Thailand, providing practical and logistical support to the protest movement. In the border town of Mae Sot, hopes are high that demonstrators will eventually be able to force the junta's departure. FRANCE 24's Dider Gruel reports