Wednesday, September 01, 2021

People look alike if we think they have similar personalities, new study finds


Research shows how knowledge of an individual’s personality can affect facial recognition


Peer-Reviewed Publication

NEW YORK UNIVERSITY

Perceptual Similarity: Justin Bieber and Vladimir Putin 

IMAGE: KNOWLEDGE OF A PERSON’S PERSONALITY CAN WARP THE PERCEPTION OF A FACE’S IDENTITY AND BIAS IT TOWARD ALTERNATE IDENTITIES THAT ARE OSTENSIBLY UNRELATED. FOR EXAMPLE, IF VLADIMIR PUTIN AND JUSTIN BIEBER (ABOVE) HAVE MORE SIMILAR PERSONALITIES IN YOUR MIND, THEN THEY VISUALLY APPEAR MORE SIMILAR TO YOU AS WELL--AS SHOWN IN THE IMAGE. view more 

CREDIT: IMAGE COURTESY OF NYU’S JONATHAN FREEMAN

Do Vladimir Putin and Justin Bieber look alike? They do if you think they have similar personalities, shows a new study by a team of psychologists. 

Its findings, which appear in the journal Cognition, reveal that knowledge of a person’s personality can influence the perception of a face’s identity and bias it toward unrelated identities. For example, if Vladimir Putin and Justin Bieber, a pair of faces among many tested in the research, have more similar personalities in your mind, then they visually appear more similar to you as well, even if they lack any physical resemblance. 

“Our face is another’s portal into our thoughts, feelings, and intentions,” explains Jonathan Freeman, an associate professor in New York University’s Department of Psychology and the paper’s senior author. “If the perception of others’ faces is systematically warped by our prior understanding of their personality, as our findings show, it could affect the ways we behave and interact with them.”

The paper’s other authors were DongWon Oh, a postdoctoral researcher in NYU’s Department of Psychology, and Mirella Walker, a researcher at the University of Basel.

The authors add that the research informs fundamental scientific understanding of how face recognition works in the brain, suggesting that not only a face’s visual cues but also prior social knowledge plays an active role in perceiving faces.

Face recognition is essential to everyday life--in identifying a neighbor at the supermarket, an actor in a film trailer, or a relative in a photograph. And, in recent years, it has been applied to technologies, ranging from the Apple iPhone to extensive counterterrorism and law enforcement applications--with many raising concerns over accuracy. 

The Association for Computing Machinery called for a suspension of both private and government use of facial-recognition technology, citing “clear bias based on ethnic, racial, gender, and other human characteristics,” Nature reported last year.

To better understand how our own perceptions--and biases--might influence how we recognize faces, the researchers conducted a series of experiments centering on perceptions of well-known individuals--Bieber, Putin, John Travolta, George W. Bush, and Ryan Gosling, among others (Note: White males were selected in order to establish a racial and gender baseline across tested faces). Racially and ethnically diverse male and female participants were drawn from “Mechanical Turk” (MTurk), a tool in which individuals are compensated for completing small tasks; it is frequently used in running behavioral science studies. 

Overall, they found that when a participant believed any two individuals were more similar in personality, their faces were perceived to be correspondingly more similar. 

To provide causal evidence, the researchers determined if the effect held for individuals they had never encountered before. The participants viewed images of other White males whom they reported no familiarity with. If the participants learned that these individuals’ personalities were similar (as opposed to dissimilar), their faces were perceived as more visually similar, too. 

The researchers used several techniques to assess how faces were perceived at a less conscious level. Subjects’ responses were measured with an innovative mouse-tracking software Freeman previously developed; it uses individuals’ hand movements to reveal unconscious cognitive processes. Unlike surveys or ratings, in which test subjects can consciously alter their responses, this technique requires subjects to make split-second decisions, thereby uncovering less conscious tendencies through subtle deflections in their hand-motion trajectory as they move a mouse during experiments. They also used a technique known as reverse correlation, which allowed the researchers to generate face images depicting how participants perceived others “in the mind’s eye.” 

“Our findings show that the perception of facial identity is driven not only by facial features, such as the eyes and chin, but also distorted by the social knowledge we have learned about others, biasing it toward alternate identities despite the fact that those identities lack any physical resemblance,” observes Freeman.

# # #

The study was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (BCS-1654731). 

Computer scientists create new search systems to limit COVID-19 misinformation



Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO

Researchers have created a new system that increases the correctness and reliability of health-related searches by 80 per cent to help people make better decisions about topics like COVID.

Search engines are the most common tools the public uses to look for facts about COVID-19 and its effect on their health. A proliferation of misinformation can have real consequences, so a team at the University of Waterloo has created a way to make these searches more reliable. 

“With so much new information coming out all the time, it can be challenging for people to know what’s true and what isn’t,” said Ronak Pradeep, a PhD student in the Cheriton School of Computer Science at Waterloo and lead author of a study about the program. “But the consequences of misinformation can be pretty bad, like people going out and buying medicines or using home remedies that can hurt them.”

Even the big search engines that host billions of searches every day can’t keep up, he said, since there has been so much scientific data and research on COVID-19 in such a short time.

“Most of the systems are trained on well-curated data, so they don’t always know how to differentiate between an article promoting drinking bleach to prevent COVID-19 as opposed to real health information,” Pradeep said. “Our goal is to help people see the right articles and get the right information so they can make better decisions in general with things like COVID.” 

Pradeep says the project aims to refine search programs to promote the best health information for users. He and his research team have leveraged their two-stage neural reranking architecture called mono-duo-T5 for search which they augmented with Vera, a label prediction system trained to discern correct from dubious and incorrect information. The system links with a search protocol that relies on data from the World Health Organization and verified information as the basis for ranking, promoting and sometimes even excluding online articles.

A recent paper with results from preliminary testing of the system, “Vera: prediction techniques for reducing harmful misinformation in consumer health search,” with co-authors Pradeep, Xueguang Ma, Rodrigo Nogueira and Jimmy Lin, was recently published in SIGIR ’21: Proceedings of the 44th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval.

###

 

Aging-US: Dietary supplementation with green tea catechins and cocoa flavanols


Cocoa, but not GTE, reduced aging-associated microgliosis and increased the proportion of neuroprotective microglial phenotypes


Peer-Reviewed Publication

IMPACT JOURNALS LLC

Figure 9 

IMAGE: IMPACT OF GTE- AND COCOA-SUPPLEMENTED DIETS ON MICROGLIAL ACTIVATION IN VENTRAL HORN SPINAL CORD OF OLD MICE. SECTIONS OF LUMBAR SPINAL CORDS FROM MICE OF DIFFERENT EXPERIMENTAL GROUPS WERE DOUBLE IMMUNOSTAINED FOR IBA1 AND CD68, A MARKER OF ACTIVATED PHAGOCYTIC MICROGLIA. (A) QUANTIFICATION OF CD68-POSITIVE PROFILES AROUND MNS IN CONTROL, GTE AND COCOA GROUPS. (B–E4) REPRESENTATIVE CONFOCAL MICROGRAPHS USED FOR DATA ANALYSIS SHOWING CD68 (GREEN) IN COMBINATION WITH IBA1 (RED) AND FLUORESCENT NISSL STAINING (BLUE, FOR MN VISUALIZATION), AS INDICATED IN PANELS. A HIGHER MAGNIFICATION OF AREA DELIMITED BY THE DASHED SQUARE IN C4 IS SHOWN IN (B). DATA IN THE GRAPH ARE EXPRESSED AS THE MEAN ± SEM; A TOTAL OF 40-50 IMAGES PER EXPERIMENTAL GROUP WERE ANALYZED (NUMBER OF ANIMALS PER GROUP: CONTROL [CTRL] = 3, GTE = 4, COCOA = 5). *P < 0.05 VS. CTRL (ONE-WAY ANOVA, BONFERRONI'S POST HOC TEST). SCALE BAR: 10 ÎœM IN (C) AND 50 ÎœM IN (E4) (VALID FOR C1–E3). view more 

CREDIT: CORRESPONDENCE TO: JORDI CALDERÓ EMAIL: JORDI.CALDERO@UDL.CAT

Aging-US published "Beneficial effects of dietary supplementation with green tea catechins and cocoa flavanols on aging-related regressive changes in the mouse neuromuscular system" which reported that green tea extract (GTE) and cocoa-supplemented diets significantly improved survival rate of mice. GTE increased density of VAChT and VGluT2 afferent synapses on neuromuscular junctions.

Cocoa, but not GTE, reduced aging-associated microgliosis and increased the proportion of neuroprotective microglial phenotypes.

Dr. Jordi Calderó from IRBLleida said, "Sarcopenia, the progressive loss of skeletal muscle mass and function with age, is considered the main causative factor of the physical performance decline in the elderly."

Sarcopenia, the progressive loss of skeletal muscle mass and function with age, is considered the main causative factor of the physical performance decline in the elderly. The compromised muscular function associated to sarcopenia has a negative impact on the life quality of older adults and increases the risk for disability, fall-associated injuries, morbidity, and mortality. The authors have recently reported a marked increase in the microglial and astroglial pro-inflammatory phenotypes (M1 and A1, respectively) in the spinal cord of aged mice. This may be due to the presence of anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective (M2 and A2) glial subpopulations. Caloric restriction, based on a diet low in calories, has been shown to attenuate aging sarcopenia in various species by acting at different levels of the skeletal muscle.

Caloric restriction has also been reported to ameliorate age-related changes in rodent NMJs and to prevent MN and motor axon degeneration found to occur with aging [11, 21]. In a similar way, some dietary supplements have been shown to counteract age related changes that contribute to neuromuscular dysfunction (reviewed by [12) Plant flavonoids have gained particular attention as dietary compounds for keeping good health and preventing a number of diseases, particularly cardiac disorders and cancer.

The Calderó Research Team concluded in their Aging-US Research Output that, green tea and cocoa flavonoids from GTE and cocoa significantly increased survival rate of aged mice. Both diets preserved NMJ innervation and maturity, delayed the senescence process of the skeletal muscle, and enhanced its regenerative capacity. Future research is needed to investigate whether higher doses of flavonoid are needed and/or longer-term interventions can help restore proper motor function.

Aging-US Podcast: Dietary supp [AUDIO] | EurekAlert! Science News Releases


Sign up for free Altmetric alerts about this article

DOI - https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.203336

Full Text - https://www.aging-us.com/article/203336/text

Correspondence to: Jordi Calderó email: jordi.caldero@udl.cat

Keywords: sarcopeniagreen teaneuromuscular systemneural stem cellsagingcocoa

About Aging-US

Launched in 2009, Aging-US publishes papers of general interest and biological significance in all fields of aging research as well as topics beyond traditional gerontology, including, but not limited to, cellular and molecular biology, human age-related diseases, pathology in model organisms, cancer, signal transduction pathways (e.g., p53, sirtuins, and PI-3K/AKT/mTOR among others), and approaches to modulating these signaling pathways.

To learn more about Aging-US, please visit http://www.Aging-US.com or connect with @AgingJrnl

Aging-US is published by Impact Journals, LLC please visit http://www.ImpactJournals.com or connect with @ImpactJrnls

Media Contact
18009220957x105
MEDIA@IMPACTJOURNALS.COM

A cocoa bean's “fingerprint” could help trace chocolate bars back to their farm of origin, finds a new study


A new study from the University of Surrey has revealed that biotechnology could be the missing ingredient in helping cocoa farmers get a better deal for their beans.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SURREY

A new study from the University of Surrey has revealed that biotechnology could be the missing ingredient in helping cocoa farmers get a better deal for their beans. 

Chocolate is a £61billion-per-year global industry that has seen the volatile price of cocoa lead to a surge in traders seeking to buy cheaper beans from deforested regions, with lower quality plants, and human rights abuses. This has affected the prices and practices of legitimate farmers, reducing sustainability gains*.   

In the findings, published in the journal Supply Chain Management, the multi-university research team reveal that biomarkers can create “meta-barcodes”, which are like biochemical fingerprints, an unchanging barcode extracted from the plant’s DNA, providing a unique identifier of a plant that is also observed in its beans and subsequent chocolate products. The biomarker of cocoa beans used in chocolate manufacturing could accurately identify the farm, production facility or cooperative where a cocoa product came from.  

To make this new process a reality, a controlled data set of biomarkers of registered locations is required for audit. The study goes on to explain that this missing piece -- a biomarker database that identifies the origin of cocoa products, can be built by companies at an estimated cost of £5 per sample – around the cost of a box of chocolates.  

Glenn Parry, Professor of Digital Transformation at University of Surrey, said: “The chocolate market has become turbulent, and we have evidence of over 100 years of slavery in the supply chain. Governments and chocolate producers are faced with an ethical challenge and drastically need to improve a trade that is rife with environmental destruction and human misery.  

“We have an effective approach for them to make progress. We demonstrate that biomarkers can provide supply chain visibility from the individual farm to the retail chocolate bar. This solution could now be within reach, where the journey of the chocolate in your fridge could be traced back to the cocoa trees where it began.” 

For further information contact: Press Officer, Simmie Korotane, s.korotane@surrey.ac.uk 

For more University of Surrey stories view here. 

-ends- 

Notes to Editors: 

*Raising Farm Gate Prices Cocoa Barometer Consultation Paper 170419 (voicenetwork.eu) 

Paper Citation: Lafargue, P., Rogerson, M., Parry, G.C. and Allainguillaume, J. (2021), "Broken chocolate: biomarkers as a method for delivering cocoa supply chain visibility", Supply Chain Managementhttps://doi.org/10.1108/SCM-11-2020-0583 

Open Access to Paper: https://openresearch.surrey.ac.uk/esploro/outputs/journalArticle/Broken-chocolate-visibility-in-cocoa-supply/99571623602346 

Video explanation: https://youtu.be/hjgje0EwCrk 

About the University of Surrey 

The University of Surrey - a global community of ideas and people, dedicated to life-changing education and research. The University of Surrey is a research-intensive university committed to teaching and research excellence with a focus on practice-based education programmes, providing a world-class experience to its students who go on to make positive contributions to society. It is committed to working in partnership with students, business, government and communities in the discovery and application of knowledge. 

 

 

Disclaimer: AAA

The people’s waterways

Public participation in the management of China’s waterways improves their water quality

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SANTA BARBARA

An estimated 70% of China’s rivers and lakes are too polluted for human use, the result of decades of intensifying economic development that have increased the amount of pollution that winds up in the water. Fixing China’s water pollution problems is an uphill battle, but citizen monitoring of remediation efforts could lead to consistent improvements in water quality, according to researchers at UC Santa Barbara and Nanjing University.

“China has some of the most polluted waterways in the world,” said Mark Buntaine, an associate professor at UC Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science & Management and the co-lead author of a study published In the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Rivers and lakes tend to become the destination for industrial wastewater, agricultural effluent and untreated sewage, in addition to large amounts of plastic trash. All that pollution, in turn, threatens the health of hundreds of millions of people.

China has taken steps to reduce the amount of pollution that ends up in its waterways, starting in 2001 with a suite of environmental measures that included reducing the amount of pollution discharged into the air and water. However, according to Buntaine, Bren doctoral student Patrick Hunnicutt and collaborator Bing Zhang from Nanjing University, waterway remediation efforts could be more successful if the public got involved.

“There’s a lot of potential for public participation to result in better resource outcomes in China,” Buntaine said.

Realigning Incentives
The national effort to improve air and water quality in China comes in the form of targets set by the central government. Its tenth and eleventh Five-Year Plans, for instance, call for 10% reductions in pollutants being discharged over the period of each plan.

“You have a central government that hands down pollution standards, and you have local governments that must implement them,” Buntaine said. “And that’s not all that dissimilar from the way our drinking water is managed in the United States. But when you have a difference between the level of government that sets standards and the levels that actually have to implement them, you can have misaligned incentives.” For instance, according to the study, of the 458 “black and smelly” waterways reported as remediated by local governments, 37, according to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, “no longer met remediation targets.” Independent baseline data collected on other waterways slated for remediation, meanwhile, reveal that 91% of them were not in compliance with the standards.

“That’s the backdrop for this study — you have local governments that have incentives to prioritize economic output and may not have incentives to fully achieve pollution standards,” Buntaine said. Thus, reporting by local governments to the central government may not reflect what’s really going on in the waterways.

“Citizens can help bridge that gap,” he said.

To test the effect of citizen monitoring, the researchers set up a large-scale field experiment in which volunteer teams kept track of half of 160 “black and smelly” rivers for 15 months in Jiangsu province, a heavily industrialized area with some of the most severe water pollution in the country. The researchers worked with a partner nongovernmental organization to disseminate information from the monitoring to “multiple levels of government, the public, or both.”

“All NGOs in China are mandated to register with the central government,” said Hunnicutt. “So, citizens who organize into local groups with the goal of mitigating pollution may end up forming NGOs that are legally recognized by the government.” Establishing such a formal arrangement might make it easier for citizens who want to address the problem of pollution, rather than remaining independent of or in opposition to the Chinese government for the same purpose, he said. 

In addition, the scientists surveyed local officials responsible for the remediation to understand the kind of oversight pressure and public demand they experience, while also surveying residents to gauge the specific effects of the program on attitudes toward remediation. To see whether water quality improved over the same period, the researchers used independent, laboratory-grade measurements of water quality. They also kept track of any connections between water quality improvements and increased housing prices.

The study, Buntaine said, was part of a larger initiative organized by research network Evidence in Governance and Politics that tested the impact of community-based monitoring and information dissemination on environmental outcomes.

In particular, each study involved citizens groups collecting data on local environmental quality twice a month. These data were then disseminated in two experimental treatments, the first of which made the monitoring information available to the public.

“Every three months a set of 10 posters was put up in prominent places near the waterways saying, ‘here’s the water quality in the waterway; here’s how it compares to others. Here’s some contact information that you can use to follow up this information,’” he explained. This treatment, he said, did not result in detectable improvements to water quality. According to the paper, this may be due in part to the fact that the citizens did not have collective authority over their resource management, therefore believing that the water quality problem was for the government to solve. Or, perhaps they were also unwilling to criticize the government or be seen as sympathetic with an NGO that is critical of government performance.

In the second treatment, the aggregated citizen monitoring data was instead put into a quarterly report and shared simultaneously with the local and provincial governments.

“With this treatment, it could be that the local level of government knows that the higher level government can see if they are achieving the remediation targets or not,” Buntaine said. “And what we see is an approximately 19% reduction in pollutant levels where these quarterly reports were shared with multiple levels of government at the same time.”

In addition, they found “suggestive evidence” that property values increased within 500 km of waterways given the government information dissemination treatment.

Information dissemination targeted to different levels of government was successful in China in large part due to the centralized form of government, according to the researchers.

“In China, the central government frequently develops and hands down environmental mandates that local governments have incentives to address,” Hunnicutt explained. “For example, part of the metric the Chinese central government uses to evaluate local governments consists of local environmental quality — this type of direct rating system doesn’t exist in the U.S.” In places like the U.S., where political power is not as concentrated in the central government, jurisdictional issues “may interrupt the link between citizens’ monitoring of local pollution and local governments taking actions to address pollution,” according to Hunnicutt.

This study, according to Buntaine — a political scientist by training who focuses his research on government accountability — is one of the first to directly demonstrate the impacts of citizen monitoring on pollution. It’s an endeavor that, while popular and widespread, didn’t have a strong scientific evidence base to support it.

“This is one of the first studies that clearly shows that citizen participation and monitoring of resources can have a crucial and large impact on achieving natural resource goals,” he said.

###

Paleofjords that drained glaciers 300 million years ago still preserved in the desertic landscape of NW Namibia


New Geology Science published online ahead of print

Peer-Reviewed Publication

GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

U-shaped valley 

IMAGE: FJORD MORPHOLOGIES AND ASSOCIATED GLACIAL EROSION FEATURES ATTESTING THAT GLACIERS FLOWED THROUGH THE DESERTIC LANDSCAPE OF NW NAMIBIA 300 MILLION YEARS AGO. THIS U-SHAPED VALLEY IS CARVED INTO HARD BEDROCK AND REPRESENTS AN INTACT FJORD MORPHOLOGY, CARVED 300 MILLION YEARS AGO, AND SUBSEQUENTLY FILLED UP WITH SEDIMENT AND LATER EXHUMATED. AT THE FOREGROUND, ONE CAN OBSERVE REMNANTS OF SEDIMENTARY ROCKS (MUDSTONES AND SANDSTONES). view more 

CREDIT: CREDIT: PIERRE DIETRICH.

31 August 2021
The Geological Society of America
Release no. 21-50
Contact: Kea Giles
+1-303-357-1057
kgiles@geosociety.org
 

For Immediate Release

 

Paleofjords That Drained Glaciers 300 Million Years Ago Still Preserved in the Desertic Landscape of NW Namibia

Boulder, Colo., USA: The Kaokoland region of northwest Namibia is a desertic land: Vast barren plateaus are deeply dissected by several hundred-meter-deep U-shaped valleys in which ephemeral streams flow. The hard floors and walls of these valleys surprisingly display abundant glacial erosion features characteristic of flowing glaciers such as scratches, striae, grooves, and smooth, elongated hills called whalebacks.

 

Such features are usually found in Canada or Scandinavia that were recently (20,000 years) covered by huge ice sheets. Discovering such marks of ice flow in Namibia, which did not undergo any recent glaciation, is therefore thrilling and challenging.

 

These glacial erosion features are sealed in place by remnants of less-resistant sedimentary rocks—conglomerate, sandstones, and mudstones encompassing large, far-traveler lonestones—which indicate that these valleys were inundated by the sea, on which icebergs drifted, after the flowing glaciers retreated.

 

Glacial scratches and striations (IMAGE)

GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

The dating of these sedimentary rocks indicates an age of 300 million years, corresponding to an icehouse period. Africa, and therefore Namibia, was at that time part of the Gondwana Supercontinent located close to the south pole. Thus, as foreseen as early as the 1950s by the German geologist Henno Martin, famous for having shared his experience of his two years spent in the Namibian desert (Sheltering Desert), a French-American-Austrian joint team demonstrated yesterday in the journal Geology that 300-million-year-old glaciers drained through—and likely carved—these valleys, which, after glaciers vanished, were inundated by the sea and therefore turned into fjords.

 

These fjords were subsequently filled with sediments for 130 million years before being exhumed in more recent times. Owing to preferential erosion of the less-resistant sedimentary rocks filling up the valleys, these ancestral fjord morphologies are now shaping the desertic landscape of NW Namibia.

 

Although modern fjords are abundant on continental shelves at high latitude, these Namibian fjords are the unique example of preserved ancient fjord morphologies and therefore serve for tackling climate changes associated to the penultimate icehouse our planet experienced.

 

 

FEATURED ARTICLE
Fjords network in Namibia: A snapshot into the dynamics of the late Paleozoic Glaciation
Pierre Dietrich and colleagues
Contact: pierre.dietrich@univ-rennes1.fr, Université de Rennes 1–CNRS, Géosciences Rennes UMR 6118, Rennes, France

URL: https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/doi/10.1130/G49067.1/607263/Fjord-network-in-Namibia-A-snapshot-into-the

 

GEOLOGY articles are online at http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/recent. Representatives of the media may obtain complimentary articles by contacting Kea Giles at the e-mail address above. Please discuss articles of interest with the authors before publishing stories on their work, and please make reference to GEOLOGY in articles published. Non-media requests for articles may be directed to GSA Sales and Service, gsaservice@geosociety.org.
 

https://www.geosociety.org

 

# # #

The future of flooding in Venice: improving projections, predictions and protection in the face of expected sea level rise


Peer-Reviewed Publication

EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION

St Mark's Square flooding current and historical comparison 

IMAGE: PRESENT CONDITION OF ST.MARK'S SQUARE DURING PARTIAL FLOODING OF ITS LOWEST AREAS (ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL: 80CM) AND HISTORICAL PICTURE CLOSE TO THE TIME OF HIGHEST WATER ON THE 4 NOVEMBER 1966 FLOOD (BLACK AND WHITE PHOTO COURTESY OF GIANFRANCO TAGLIAPIETRA) view more 

CREDIT: PIERO LIONELLO AND GIANFRANCO TAGLIAPIETRA

MUNICH — A new assessment of flood risk in Venice indicates that the impact of higher emissions on relative sea level rise during this century will be critical in planning future defence infrastructure for Venice and other coastal cities, state the authors of a new special issue published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences today.

The special issue, with contributions lead by researchers from Università del SalentoISMAR - Institute of Marine Sciences and University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, draws evidence from historical and contemporaneous data to explore why the flood risk in the UNESCO World Heritage city of Venice has increased in the recent past and is expected to further increase, even accelerate in the course of the 21st century.

One of the key factors when considering the serious threat of flooding in Venice and other coastal cities, is the importance of projected relative sea level rise. Relative sea level rise is the sea level’s change relative to the local solid Earth’s surface, and incorporates aspects of ground sinking as well as the mean sea level itself increasing.

Long-term future projections indicate a large uncertainty in the relative sea level of Venice of between 17 and 120 cm by 2100, which lead author Davide Zanchettin attributes to the challenges of projections based on the wide range of emission scenarios, and to insufficient understanding of relevant physical processes, both acting remotely and inside the Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea. “For a projection to be useful, it must be well constrained” Zanchettin says “There are important feedbacks in the climate system, for instance related to polar ice sheet dynamics, that we need to understand and better simulate to make more reliable projections.”

“Small increases can have a large impact”
The importance of accurate projections of the steady and inevitable rise in sea level for coastal cities like Venice is brought into focus when you consider the combination of that increase with extreme events that precipitate serious flooding. The extreme events that cause flooding in Venice have so far  been attributed mainly to storm surges caused by sirocco winds, but a greater variety of factors will involved in future extreme events, including meteotsunamis and massive planetary atmospheric waves that affect sea level at multiple scales. “When you are this close to the upper limit of the tidal range, any meteorological event can be hazardous and cause an extreme flood,” says lead author Piero Lionello, “Small increases can have a large impact.”

CAPTION

This art installation, called 'Support', was created by artist Lorenzo Quinn in Venice’s world-famous Grand Canal to raise awareness about climate change (source: imaggeo.egu.eu).

CREDIT

Hung Vuong Pham

In the short-term, the protection of Venice from flooding mostly depends on the effective and timely deployment of the new MoSE (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) coastal defence system, which has already been operated several times since October 2020 to protect the city. The design relies on being able to predict the water level 4-6 hours ahead of the maximum and open or close the barriers, in order to protect the vulnerable low-lying city from flooding at some times, and provide access to the port and maintain the environmental balance of the lagoon at others.

“The MoSE system will be operated on the forecast,” says Georg Umgiesser. “If the forecast is wrong, the operation of the MoSE becomes wrong—and that is very important both economically and ecologically.” Reducing the uncertainty that exists in any forecasting model is critical and Umgiesser suggests this is particularly effective when combining multiple independent models to account for differences in the numerical models.


Giving governments time to plan
The wide ranging impacts of a high emissions scenario on the operation of the new MoSE system and flooding in Venice are made clear in this special issue, both in the short and longer term, with the possibility of a year-round closure of the lagoon needed as early as 2075 to keep up with rising relative sea levels, in a plausible but unlikely scenario.

Such an extreme closure of the coastal defence system would have serious environmental and economic impacts on the city of Venice and the lagoon, but there are ways coastal cities can adapt. “Sea level is a nasty beast; we could stop global warming completely by stopping the use of fossil fuels and the sea level would continue to rise in spite of this, though at a much reduced pace.” Lionello notes. “But we have the information with studies like these to identify the future risk to coastal cities like Venice. Although we don’t know exactly when, the present evidence  is  that we will need to change our adaption strategies. It’s clear that we need to be prepared to act.”


CAPTION

Projected sea level change in Venice in the context of historical observations. Observations are annual-mean tide gauge relative sea-level height anomalies with respect to the 2000-2007 average. Projections are based on two reference scenarios of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission, namely RCP2.6 (low emission scenario) and RCIP8.5 (strong emission scenario), and a high-end scenario illustrating a plausible evolution obtained by combining the highest estimates of all individual contributions to relative sea level rise. The horizontal blue lines shows the annual persistence of the sea level above the present safeguard level as a function of future relative mean sea level. These time intervals approximately correspond to the annual duration of the expected closures of MoSE.

CREDIT

Piero Lionello, Robert Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser and Davide Zanchettin