Goodbye ‘godsend’: Expiration of child tax credits hits home

By JOHN RABY, FATIMA HUSSEIN and JOSH BOAK

Hairdresser Chelsea Woody stands outside her car at a grocery store Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2022, in Charleston, W.Va. For the first time in half a year, families on Jan. 14, are going without a monthly deposit from the federal child tax credit. Woody, a single mother, relied on the check to help raise her young son. (AP Photo/John Raby)

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — For the first time in half a year, families on Friday are going without a monthly deposit from the child tax credit — a program that was intended to be part of President Joe Biden’s legacy but has emerged instead as a flash point over who is worthy of government support.

Retiree Andy Roberts, from St. Albans, West Virginia, relied on the checks to help raise his two young grandchildren, whom he and his wife adopted because the birth parents are recovering from drug addiction.

The Roberts are now out $550 a month. That money helped pay for Girl Scouts, ballet and acting lessons and kids’ shoes, which Roberts noted are more expensive than adult shoes. The tax credit, he said, was a “godsend.”

“It’ll make you tighten up your belt, if you’ve got anything to tighten,” Roberts said about losing the payments.

The monthly tax credits were part of Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package — and the president had proposed extending them for another full year as part of a 

But Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, from Roberts’ home state of West Virginia, objected to extending the credit out of concern that the money would discourage people from working and that any additional federal spending would fuel inflation that has already climbed to a nearly 40-year high.

According to IRS data, 305,000 West Virginia children benefited from the expanded credit last month.

Manchin’s opposition in the evenly split Senate derailed Biden’s social spending package and caused the expanded tax credits that were going out in the middle of every month to expire in January. This is whittling down family incomes at the precise moment when people are grappling with higher prices.

However, families only received half of their 2021 credit on a monthly basis and the other half will be received once they file their taxes in the coming months. The size of the credit will be cut in 2022, with full payments only going to families that earned enough income to owe taxes, a policy choice that will limit the benefits for the poorest households. And the credits for 2022 will come only once people file their taxes at the start of the following year.

West Virginia families interviewed by The Associated Press highlighted how their grocery and gasoline bills have risen and said they’ll need to get by with less of a financial cushion than a few months ago.

“You’re going to have to learn to adapt,” said Roberts, who worked as an auto dealer for five decades. “You never really dreamed that everything would all of a sudden explode. You go down and get a package of hamburger and it’s $7-8 a pound.”

By the Biden administration’s math, the expanded child tax credit and its monthly payments were a policy success that paid out $93 billion over six months. More than 36 million families received the payments in December. The payments were $300 monthly for each child who was five and younger, and $250 monthly for children between the ages of six and 17.

Retiree Andy Roberts displays a photo of his daughter, 5-year-old Tesla, at his home Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022, in St. Albans, W.Va. For the first time in half a year, families on Jan. 14, are going without a monthly deposit from the federal child tax credit. Roberts relied on the check to help raise his two young grandchildren, whom he and his wife adopted. (AP Photo/John Raby)

The Treasury Department declined to address questions about the expiration of the expanded child tax credit, which has become a politically sensitive issue as part of Biden’s nearly $2 trillion economic package that has stalled in the Senate.

Manchin has supported some form of a work requirement for people receiving the payment, out of concern that automatic government aid could cause people to quit their jobs. Yet his primary objection, in a written statement last month, sidestepped that issue as he expressed concerns about inflation and that a one-year extension masked the true costs of a tax credit that could become permanent.

“My Democratic colleagues in Washington are determined to dramatically reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face,” Manchin said. He added that he was worried about inflation and the size of the national debt.

The Census Bureau surveyed the spending patterns of recipients during September and October. Nearly a third used the credit to pay for school expenses, while about 25% of families with young children spent it on child care. About 40% of recipients said they mostly relied on the money to pay off debt.

There are separate benefits in terms of improving the outcomes for impoverished children, whose families could not previously access the full tax credit because their earnings were too low. An analysis by the Urban Institute estimated that extending the credit as developed by the Biden administration would cut child poverty by 40%.

The tax credits did not cause an immediate exodus from the workforce, as some lawmakers had feared. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the percentage of people with jobs increased from 58% the month before the monthly payments began to 59.5% last month. That same trend occurred in West Virginia, where the employment-population ratio rose to the pre-pandemic level of 52.9%.

There’s an academic debate over whether the credit could suppress employment in the long term, with most studies suggesting that the impact would be statistically negligible.

Academics who study the tax credit are torn on how a permanent program would affect the economy and child welfare.

Katherine Michelmore, an associate professor of public policy at the University of Michigan, and two other researchers estimated that roughly 350,000 parents would exit the workforce, a figure that is not all that significant in an economy with roughly 150 million jobs.

Michelmore said the long-term effects of a permanent tax credit would have a positive impact on the economy, as children who grow up in families with higher incomes “tend to do better in school, they’re more likely to graduate from high school. It might be 50 years down the road but there will be more cost savings in the future.”

One of the key questions for policymakers is whether bureaucracies or parents are better at spending money on children. Manchin has proposed a 10-year, funded version of Biden’s economic proposal that would scrap the child tax credits focus and instead finance programs such as universal pre-kindergarten, to avoid sending money directly to families.

“It’s a moral question of do you trust families to make their own decisions,” Michelmore said.

Hairdresser Chelsea Woody is a single mother from Charleston, West Virginia, who works six days a week to make ends meet. The extended child tax credit payments had helped pay for her son’s daycare, as well as letting her splurge on clothes for him.

“It truly helps out a lot. It’s an extra cushion, instead of me worrying how I’m going to pay a bill or if anything comes up,” Woody said as she loaded groceries into her car. “It’s helpful for a lot of people. It helps working families out because we struggle the most. I’m hardly home with my kid because I work all the time.”

___

Hussein reported from Washington and Boak from Baltimore.

Inflation Inequality: Poorest Americans Are Hit Hardest By Soaring Prices On Necessities


By Jacob Orchard

THE CONVERSATION
01/14/22 

Inflation By The Numbers: U.S. Consumer Price Index Reaches Highest Level Since 1982

The fastest rate of inflation in 40 years is hurting families across the U.S. who are seeing ever-higher prices for everything from meat and potatoes to housing and gasoline.

But behind the headline number that’s been widely reported is something that often gets overlooked: Inflation affects different households in different ways – and sometimes hurts those with the least, the most.

Inflation, as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is designed to track the price increases in a typical U.S. household’s basket of goods. The problem is spending bundles differ across households. For example, a family in the lowest 20% of income typically spends around 15% of their budget on groceries – this is nearly 60% more than households in the top 20% of the income distribution, according to my calculations.

The widening inflation gap

On Jan. 12, 2022, the BLS released figures showing that inflation jumped by 7% in December from a year earlier – the fastest pace since 1982. To see how this varied across households, I used the bureau’s own price data and factored in the typical spending habits of different income groups.

I calculate that inflation is running at 7.2% for the lowest income households – higher than for any other group. For the highest-income families, the rate of change was 6.6%.

The difference between the two income groups steadily increased throughout 2021, starting the year at just 0.16 percentage point but ending at 0.6 percentage point – near the highest it has been since 2010.

The reason for this widening rich-poor inflation gap, known by economists as inflation inequality, comes down to the typical spending habits of people in each income group.

In times of economic uncertainty and recession, most households tend to hold back on buying luxury goods. But by and large, people can’t cut down on necessities such as groceries and heating – although wealthier consumers are better placed to stock up on these necessities when prices are cheap.

This shift of spending away from luxury items like vacations and new cars, and toward necessities, pushes inflation up for poorer families more than richer ones. This is because lower-income households dedicate a higher percentage of their income on necessities.

My data shows that this inflation gap tends to be widest in times of recession or in the early stages of economic recovery. In the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the gap in inflation rates between the lowest and highest income groups was close to 1 percentage point – higher than it is now.

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By contrast, in times of economic growth – for example, from 2012 to 2018 – the gap narrows. It even inverted at one point in 2016; the inflation rate for poorer Americans was almost a half-percentage point lower than that of richer Americans.

The main driver of the growing gap in 2021 was the increases in groceries and gas prices. This has made inflation run hotter for all households. But given the greater proportion of household income that poorer families dedicate to food and energy costs, it has affected them more.

Take out gas and grocery prices, then the inflation gap is reduced significantly.

Going forward, I expect the inflation gap will follow a similar pattern as we saw after the Great Recession – as economic recovery turns into continued expansion, inflation will be lower for low-income households than high-income households.

More US consumers are shopping in stores this year compared with last year, according to the National Retail Federation Photo: GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA via AFP / Brandon Bell

This article originally appeared in The Conversation.

Jacob Orchard is a Doctoral Candidate in Economics at the University of California San Diego.

Inflation at 40-year high pressures consumers, Fed and Biden


WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation jumped at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years last month, a 7% spike from a year earlier that is increasing household expenses, eating into wage gains and heaping pressure on President Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve to address what has become the biggest threat to the U.S. economy.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

Prices rose sharply in 2021 for cars, gas, food and furniture as part of a rapid recovery from the pandemic recession. Vast infusions of government aid and ultra-low interest rates helped spur demand for goods, while vaccinations gave people confidence to dine out and travel.

As Americans ramped up spending, supply chains remained squeezed by shortages of workers and raw materials and this magnified price pressures.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that a measure of inflation that excludes volatile food and gas prices jumped 5.5% in December, also the highest in decades. Overall inflation rose 0.5% from November, down from 0.8% the previous month.

Price gains could slow further as snags in supply chains ease, but most economists say inflation won’t fall back to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.

“U.S. inflation pressures show no sign of easing,’’ said James Knightley, chief international economist at the financial services company ING. “It hasn’t been this high since the days of Thatcher and Reagan. We could be close to the peak, but the risk is that inflation stays higher for longer.’’

High inflation isn't only a problem for the U.S. In the 19 European countries that use the euro currency, inflation rose 5% in December compared with a year earlier, the biggest increase on record.

Companies large and small are adapting as best they can.

Nicole Pomije, a bakery owner in the Minneapolis area, said she plans to raise prices for cookies because of surging ingredient costs.

Her basic cookies were priced at 99 cents each, while premium versions were selling for $1.50 each. But Pomije said she will have to jack up the prices of her basic cookies to the premium price.

“We have to make money,” she said. “We don’t want to lose our customers. But I think we might.”

Businesses struggling to hire have hiked pay, but rising prices for goods and services have eroded those income gains for many Americans. Lower-income families have felt it the most, and polls show that inflation has started displacing even the coronavirus as a public concern.

High inflation has put President Biden on the defensive. His administration, echoing officials at the Fed, initially suggested that price increases would be temporary. Now that inflation has persisted, Biden and some congressional Democrats have begun to blame large corporations. They say meat producers and other industries are taking advantage of pandemic-induced shortages to drive up prices and profits. But even some left-of-center economists disagree with that diagnosis.

On Wednesday, the president issued a statement arguing that the drop in gas prices in December and a smaller increase in food costs showed progress.

One trend experts fear is a wage-price spiral. That happens when workers seek more pay to offset higher costs, and then companies raise costs further to cover that higher pay. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a Senate panel that he has yet to see evidence that wages are broadly driving up prices across the economy.

The biggest driver of inflation, according to economists, are mismatches between supply and demand. Used car prices have soared more than 37% over the past year because a shortage of semiconductors has prevented auto companies from making enough new cars. Supply-chain constraints have driven furniture prices nearly 14% higher over the past year.

Shoppers are feeling the pinch all around them, from the gas station to the grocery store.

Vicki Bernardo Hill, 65, an occupational therapist in Gaithersburg, Maryland, says she no longer throws extra canned food, boxes of cereal or bakery items into her shopping cart at the Giant Food store.

“I am trying to stick to my list and buying things that are on sale, ” said Hill.

Because she couldn't find a good deal on a used car, Hill recently bought a new Mazda, spending $5,000 more than she had planned.

Inflation could ease as the omicron wave fades and as Americans shift more of their spending to services such as travel, eating out and movie-going. That would reduce the demand for goods and help clear supply chains.

But some higher prices, such as rents, could prove to be stickier. Rental costs, which have accelerated since summer, rose 0.4% in December, the third consecutive monthly increase. That's significant because housing costs make up one-third of the government's consumer price index.

Powell told Congress that if it becomes necessary to fight high inflation more aggressively, the Federal Reserve is prepared to accelerate the interest rate hikes it plans to begin this year. The Fed's benchmark short-term rate, now pegged near zero, is expected to be bumped up at least three times this year.

Rate increases would make borrowing for a home or car more expensive, and therefore help to cool off the economy.

Some economists and members of Congress fear the Fed has acted too slowly to head off inflation and that this could eventually force even sharper rate increases that could damage the economy.

Republicans in Congress and even some liberal economists say Biden deserves at least some of the blame for high inflation, arguing that the financial rescue package he pushed through Congress last March added significant stimulus to an already strengthening economy.

______

AP Writers Paul Wiseman and Josh Boak in Washington, Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit and Anne D'Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report.

Christopher Rugaber, The Associated Press

Critics Say I.M.F. Loan Fees Are Hurting Nations in Desperate Need

Democratic lawmakers say the global fund’s surcharges for emergency relief siphon away money that countries need to fight the pandemic.

A Covid-19 vaccination this week in Karachi, Pakistan, one of the financially distressed nations paying loan surcharges to the International Monetary Fund.

Credit...Akhtar Soomro/Reuters


By Patricia Cohen
Jan. 14, 2022, 3:00 a.m. ET


At a time when the coronavirus pandemic is fueling a rapid rise in inequality and debt, a growing number of policymakers and economists are pressuring the International Monetary Fund to eliminate extra fees it charges on loans to struggling nations because they siphon away scarce funds that could instead be used to battle Covid.

The fund, which for decades has backstopped countries in financial distress, imposes these fees for loans that are unusually large or longstanding. They were designed to help protect against hefty losses from high-risk lending.

But critics argue that the surcharges come at the worst possible moment, when countries are already in desperate need of funds to provide poverty aid and public health services. Some of the countries paying the fees, including Egypt, Ukraine and Armenia, have vaccinated only about a third of their populations. The result, the critics argue, is that the I.M.F. ends up undermining the financial welfare and stability of the very places it is trying to aid.

In the latest critique, a letter this week to Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen from 18 Democrats in Congress, including Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Pramila Jayapal of Washington, asked the United States to support ending the surcharge policy.

The surcharge “discourages public health investment by developing countries,” the letter said. “This perverse outcome will undermine global economic recovery.” The letter echoed several other appeals from more than two dozen emerging nations, including Argentina, South Africa and Brazil, as well as economists.



Volunteers at a soup kitchen in Buenos Aires last spring. The coronavirus pandemic has further strained Argentina’s poor.

Credit...Sarah Pabst for The New York Times

“Attempts to force excessive repayments are counterproductive because they lower the economy’s productive potential,” the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz and Kevin Gallagher, a professor of global development at Boston University, wrote in a recent analysis. “Both creditors and the country itself are worse off.”

They added: “The I.M.F. should not be in the business of making a profit off of countries in dire straits.”

The fund primarily serves as a lender of last resort, although recently it has expanded its mission to include reducing extreme inequality and combating climate change.

In addition to building up a reserve, the surcharges were designed to encourage borrowers to repay on time. The poorest countries are exempt.

The fees have become a major source of revenue for the I.M.F., which is funded primarily by its 190 member nations, with the United States paying the largest share. The fund estimates that by the end of this year, borrowers will have shelled out $4 billion in extra fees — on top of their regular interest payments — since the pandemic began in 2020.

The debate over the surcharge is emblematic of larger contradictions at the heart of the I.M.F.’s structure and mission. The fund was created to provide a lifeline to troubled economies so that they recover “without resorting to measures destructive of national or international prosperity.”

But the terms and conditions that accompany its loans have at times ratcheted up the economic pain. “They penalize countries at a time when they are in an adverse situation, forcing them to make greater cuts in order to repay debts,” according to an analysis from the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

“Demanding these surcharges during an ongoing recession caused by a pandemic goes even more against” the I.M.F.’s founding principles, the center argues.

Voting power in the fund’s governance is based on the size of each country’s monetary contribution, with only the United States having veto power. That means that countries most in need have the least say in how the I.M.F. carries out its role.

In a statement, the Treasury Department reiterated support for the surcharges: “As the I.M.F.’s major shareholder we have an obligation to protect the financial integrity of the I.M.F.” And it pointed out that the interest rates charged by the fund were often far below market rates.

A review of the surcharges last month by the fund’s executive directors ended without any agreement to halt the charges. An I.M.F. statement explained that while “some directors were open to exploring temporary surcharge relief” to free up resources to deal with the pandemic, most others preferred a comprehensive review later on in the context of the fund’s “overall financial outlook.”

Strapped countries that are subject to the surcharges like Argentina balked earlier at the extra payments, but their campaign has picked up momentum with the spread of Covid-19.

“I think the pandemic makes a big difference,” said Martín Guzmán, Argentina’s minister of economy.

He argues that the pandemic has turned what may have once been considered unusual circumstances into the commonplace, given the enormous debt that many countries have taken on to meet its rising costs. Government debt in emerging countries has hit its highest level in a half a century.

The number of nations subject to surcharges increased to 21 last year from 15 in 2020, according to the I.M.F. Pakistan, Egypt, Ukraine, Georgia, Albania, Tunisia and Ecuador are among those paying.

Argentina, which has long had a contentious and bitter relationship with the fund relating to a series of bailouts and defaults that date back decades, has been a leading opponent of the surcharges.

The country is trying to work out a new repayment schedule for $45 billion that the previous government borrowed as part of a 2018 loan package. By the end of 2024, the government estimates, it will have run up a tab of more than $5 billion in surcharges alone. This year, 70 percent of Argentina’s nearly $1.6 billion bill from the I.M.F. is for surcharges.

A protest against a possible new deal with the I.M.F. in Buenos Aires last month.

Credit...Alejandro Pagni/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

“The charges will be undermining the mission of the I.M.F., which is to ensure global stability and balance of payments,” Mr. Guzmán said.

According to World Bank estimates, 124 million people were pushed into poverty in 2020, with eight out of 10 of them in middle-income countries.

Meanwhile, the costs of basic necessities like food, heating and electricity are surging, adding to political strains. This week, the I.M.F. warned in its blog that continuing Covid outbreaks, combined with rising inflation, debt and interest rates, mean emerging economies should “prepare for potential bouts of economic turbulence.”

How the Pandemic Has Divided the Global Economy

World’s Growth Cools and the Rich-Poor Divide Widens
Oct. 12, 2021

‘We Were Left With Nothing’: Argentina’s Misery Deepens in the Pandemic
April 19, 2021

Debate Looms Over I.M.F.: Should It Do More Than Put Out Fires?
Oct. 9, 2021

Patricia Cohen is the Global Economics Correspondent based in London. Since joining The Times in 1997, she has also written about theater, books and ideas. She is the author of “In Our Prime: The Fascinating History and Promising Future of Middle Age.” @PatcohenNYT • Facebook

A version of this article appears in print on Jan. 14, 2022, Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: I.M.F. Fees Said to Harm Poor Nations. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

 Iran Will Make US Withdrawal From Region As Painful As Possible – OpEd

 January 14, 2022  

By Arab News

By Khaled Abou Zahr *

The year may have only just started, but US troops in Iraq and Syria have already come under attack by drones three times. It is worth noting that, in both countries, the US presence has decreased. In Syria, there are mere hundreds of US troops left in the northeast of the country for counterterrorism purposes. In Iraq, the number is below 2,500 and troops have ended active combat to shift into an advisory role. In both countries, the main goal is now focused on fighting Daesh, yet most of the attacks against them are coming from Iranian-backed groups.

The reductions in troop numbers and the shift in their roles come at a time when the US is negotiating with Iran in Vienna. It is clear that Tehran is directing these attacks to push its message and apply pressure on Washington. The mullahs are convinced that the US will not retaliate or respond strongly to avoid any escalation. The use of weaponized drones is very efficient in its asymmetry and capacity to create irritation without being important enough to provoke a strong military response. It is also an effective communication tool from Iran that underlines its capacity to rain drones and missiles and make life even more difficult for the US.

There is a growing parallel between the Taliban’s objectives in Afghanistan and Iran’s objectives in the Middle East. The goal is now clearly to push for a full withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Iraq. Tehran is comfortable in its thinking that, through pressure in the negotiations in Vienna, as well as through the official political voices from the Iraqi and Syrian governments, it can corner US forces. America has already noticed that, since its withdrawal from Afghanistan, it now has difficulty assessing the counterterrorism risks, especially concerning the links between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and what the implications are for US national security.

The American military hence understands that a withdrawal from Iraq and Syria would mean more difficulties when it comes to its counterintelligence missions in both countries. This applies not only to Daesh, but also and mostly to all Iranian-sponsored terrorist activities. Unlike during the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiations, declarations from US military officials have been more direct in condemning the Iranian proxies and forces, blaming them for the attacks and warning them of potential retaliation. Some military experts state that the small numbers of US forces in both Syria and Iraq are more like hostages than a deterrent.

Last November, a bipartisan group of members of the House of Representatives raised legal questions regarding US military activities that do not involve Daesh. Their letter specifically questioned US airstrikes on sites in Syria that are used by Iran-backed militia groups. It implied that former President Donald Trump and his successor Joe Biden stretched the current legal authorizations with the missions in Syria instead of seeking the approval of Congress. The goal of this letter was to avoid future legal loopholes that could permit more “endless wars.” However, it also means that they consider US military activities in response to Iranian aggression as outside of the current legal scope, so the Iranian terrorist proxies are indeed in luck.

There is an objective from the US to continue its withdrawal from the region and so the question remains whether this will be executed without reducing the pressure coming from Iranian-backed forces. Could a new surge be the solution instead? In 2007, President George W. Bush ordered the deployment of more than 20,000 soldiers in Iraq with the aim of enhancing the general situation to allow for reconciliation and a state-building process. Gen. David Petraeus took command of the Multi-National Force in Iraq and achieved his mission’s goals. But it is highly doubtful that the current US administration would, or even could, follow such a strategy, especially as it views that the same strategy failed in Afghanistan. This leaves the US with few options.

This lack of clarity — whether on the US military’s role or the legal aspect of its operations — underlines the lack of an overarching strategy, not only for Washington’s military presence in both Syria and Iraq, but also on its geopolitical objectives. This has become true for the entire Middle East just as it was true for Afghanistan. The US military, which is trying to maintain a difficult balance and stability despite its small presence, is left fending off Iranian provocations, especially in northern Syria, where the various actors’ roles and alliances are blurred. This situation is in no way sustainable, especially when Russia and China are more assertive in their engagement in the Middle East.

It is similar to the situation in Afghanistan, where the file was passed from one US administration to the next until it reached a point where no one really remembered what the original goal was and what could still be achieved. Therefore, looking at the geopolitical arrangements in Syria and Iraq, everything indicates the pursuit by the Biden administration of an honorable exit. The rehabilitation of Bashar Assad and the new political arrangements in Iraq point to that goal. The political landscape in Washington is also inward-looking to avoid the repetition of such forever wars, rather than maintaining regional security. However, this scenario will only become a reality with a nuclear deal. Tehran understands this and will try to make this exit as painful for the US as its departure from Afghanistan.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is chief executive of Eurabia, a media and tech company, and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
• Flag of Iran. Photo by Farzaaaad2000, Wikipedia Commons.

Burmese flee bombardment as junta ‘makes example’ of city of Loikaw

Up to 170,000 people are thought to have left homes in Myanmar’s Kayah state due to intensified fighting

Members of the Ta’aung National Liberation Army (TNLA),

 gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state. 

Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Min Ye Kyaw and Rebecca Ratcliffe 

South-east Asia correspondent
Fri 14 Jan 2022

Nan and her family had just one hour to gather their belongings and prepare to flee their home. A charity had offered to drive them away from Loikaw, the capital of eastern Myanmar’s Kayah state, to relative safety. She considered staying behind, with the plants, dogs and pigs that she had raised, but knew she had to leave.

Since last week, Loikaw has seen intense fighting between groups opposed to last year’s military coup and the armed forces, which have launched airstrikes and fired artillery. An artillery shell had dropped near Nan’s fence, terrifying her cousin’s children, who ran to hide under their bed. “It was so loud,” she said. “My grandma was shocked and sweating, we had to give her medication to calm her down.” Other homes in Nan’s neighbourhood have been hit.

The UN estimates that half the population of Loikaw have been forced to leave their homes, and that almost 90,000 people from Kayah state, formerly known as Karenni state, are displaced. Estimates by local media and a rights group are far higher, suggesting up to 170,000 people in Kayah, more than half of its population, have left their homes.

Almost one year since the military seized power in Myanmar, the junta faces widespread and defiant opposition to its rule, and to the heinous violence it has inflicted on the public. Alongside a peaceful protest movement, people across the country have resorted to taking up arms, sometimes with support from established ethnic armed organisations.

The military is now battling armed groups on multiple fronts. This includes in Kayah state, where it has been met with strong opposition, and has in turn launched brutal crackdowns. In December, more than 30 people, including children, were killed and their bodies burned in a massacre on Christmas Eve.

On 7 January, a day after fighting intensified, Nan, 26, left her home along with her grandmother – who was in ill health – her parents, cousins and their children.

The drive to Shan state, where they sought refuge, would normally take three and a half hours. Instead, it took the family three days. Fighting forced them to stop and take shelter on the way, only for the attacks to then become so close that there was no option to move again. “They continuously launched behind us as we moved forward,” she said.

Ba Nyar, a spokesperson from Karenni Human Rights Group, said the situation was the most severe he had seen in the state and that 170,000 people are displaced. Many had sought refuge in Buddhist temple compounds, schools and community halls, he said. But people were struggling to access food or basics such as blankets or makeshift roofs to provide shelter at night, he added.

After the recent escalation in fighting, the military has stopped all trucks coming in and out of Loikaw, cutting off supplies, said a volunteer at a refugee camp where about 100 families are sheltering. According to a report by the independent outlet Myanmar Now, the military has also cut off electricity to several areas of Loikaw, halting water supplies and wifi coverage.

More than 650 houses and other civilian properties, including churches, monasteries and schools have been burned down or destroyed in Kayah state since May 2021, according to reports cited by the UN.

This week, the UN special rapporteur for Myanmar, Tom Andrews, called on the junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, to “immediately halt the air and ground attacks that junta forces have unleashed on Loikaw”, to lift the blockade of those seeking to escape and allow access for those seeking to provide aid and shelter.

The UN’s children’s agency, Unicef, said it was gravely concerned by the escalating conflict and condemned the killing of at least four children across the country, and the maiming of others over the past week. Among those injured are a 12-year-old girl and 16-year-old boy from Loikaw, who were hit by heavy weaponry “following intense airstrikes and mortar attacks”, according to Unicef.

Phil Robertson, the deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia division, said the military had “clearly decided to make an example of Loikaw, hitting it with indiscriminate artillery and aerial bombardment that puts civilians at serious risk of grievous harm”.

“Humanitarian assistance is urgently needed, and NGOs, UN agencies and donors should bend over backwards to get assistance to displaced persons who require it,” he said.

Few remain in Loikaw. One resident who is still in the city said there was shooting on Wednesday evening until 9pm, and that three military helicopters were seen in the sky. “I have to stay very quiet inside my house for my safety and eat what I have,” he said. “I gave everything else to my family.”

He stayed in the city to watch over the family home, but will leave if fighting worsens. “I think we can still leave, but there are many military soldiers hiding on the roads,” he said.

Nan’s family were stopped twice at checkpoints before they eventually reached relative safety in Shan state. Her grandmother, who had heart problems, died before they arrived. Nan believes it was the shock and trauma caused by the sound of the firing of artillery shells.


‘No standing down, no giving up’: Myanmar’s resistance mobilises

Even as the family tried to pause their journey to hold a funeral for her at a nearby town, they were again forced to leave immediately due to worsening violence. Residents from the area were also forced to flee.

Nan has considered returning home. As she drove past the mountains at the back of a truck, she longed to go back. “If my parents are safe, I’d like to go back there even if I have to move from one place to another when fighting takes place in the town,” she said. “I miss home so much.”

 

The Myanmar military reportedly attacked using two helicopters in Kawkareik Township, Kayin State, on January 10. Photo Credit: DMG

Myanmar: Junta Carries Out Airstrikes In Kayin State’s Kawkareik Twsp

 January 14, 2022 

By DMG

The Myanmar military conducted airstrikes in clashes this week with the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU), in Kawkareik Township, Kayin State, according to local sources.

Fighting broke out between the KNLA and the Myanmar military in the KNU’s Brigade 6 area near the old town of Kawkareik and Migathein village on January 10. A KNLA official said two Myanmar military helicopters had bombarded the area during the fighting.

“The Myanmar military launched attacks against the KNLA using two helicopters. The attack was carried out in response to the heavy casualties during the main offensive,” the official added.

A local resident who spoke on condition of anonymity said artillery shells fired by the Myanmar military fell on Migathein village, destroying at least 10 houses. Many residents of Mingathein village have fled to safer locations near the Thaungyin (Moei) River on the Myanmar-Thailand border.

“The Myanmar military’s helicopters began firing shortly after the fighting. We also heard the sound of artillery firing. Many homes were hit by the artillery shells and were reduced to ashes,” the resident said.

The Myanmar military has not yet commented on the attack. Fighting erupted between the KNLA and Myanmar military in Kawkareik Township on January 6, injuring 11 locals and killing an elderly woman.

As a result of the fighting, more than 2,000 people have been displaced in Kawkareik Township, and relief supplies are needed, including food and medicine, according to relief groups.

DMG

Development Media Group (DMG) was founded on the Thai-Myanmar border 

on January 9, 2012, in accordance with the current requirements of Arakan

(Rakhine) State, by both residents inside the country, and former residents

 now in exile, who see value in meaningful quality media and applying news

 media as a powerful resource for regional stability, peace-making, and holistic

 and sustainable development.

Afghanistan: Taliban Takeover Worsens Rights Crisis

 January 14, 2022  

By Eurasia Review

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan accelerated the country’s human rights crisis and humanitarian catastrophe, Human Rights Watch said Thursday in its World Report 2022.

After the Taliban took control of the country on August 15, 2021, they rolled back women’s rights advances and media freedom – the foremost achievements of the post-2001 reconstruction effort. Many secondary schools for girls remained closed by the end of the year, and women were largely prohibited from working in jobs outside of teaching and health care.

“Afghans are caught between Taliban oppression and the spectre of starvation,” said Patricia Gossman, associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “Governments involved in Afghanistan over the past two decades should provide humanitarian aid and fund basic services, including health and education, while using their leverage to press for an end to Taliban rights violations.”

In the 752-page World Report 2022, its 32nd edition, Human Rights Watch reviews human rights practices in nearly 100 countries. Executive Director Kenneth Roth challenges the conventional wisdom that autocracy is ascendent. In country after country, large numbers of people have recently taken to the streets, even at the risk of being arrested or shot, showing that the appeal of democracy remains strong. Meanwhile, autocrats are finding it more difficult to manipulate elections in their favor. Still, he says, democratic leaders must do a better job of meeting national and global challenges and of making sure that democracy delivers on its promised dividends.

The chaotic evacuation of thousands of Afghans left behind many who remained at risk of Taliban retaliation. Taliban forces summarily executed many former members of the Afghan government’s security forces. A freeze on Afghanistan’s currency reserves and the loss of foreign aid accelerated an economic collapse, leaving millions of Afghans at risk of famine. The collapse of the country’s health services meant that many Afghans faced a loss of most physical and mental health care.

In the weeks after the Taliban takeover, the new government announced a steady stream of policies and regulations that rolled back women’s rights. Taliban authorities also imposed wide-ranging restrictions on the Afghan media, and along with the flight of many journalists abroad,  nearly 70 percent of Afghan media outlets closed. Both the Taliban and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), the Afghan branch of the Islamic State (ISIS), carried out targeted killings of civilians including government employees, journalists, and religious leaders.

The number of civilians killed and injured in the conflict surged in the first six months of 2021 from attacks by both Taliban and Afghan government security forces, the latter primarily from  airstrikes. The ISKP carried out numerous attacks on civilian facilities, including schools and mosques, killing hundreds, most of them members of Afghanistan’s Hazara community. ISKP attacks continued after the Taliban takeover.

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court sought authorization to resume his investigation but stated he would focus on alleged crimes by the Taliban and ISKP, and deprioritize those committed by the US military and CIA and former Afghan government security forces. 

Women in Afghanistan market. Photo by Staff Sgt. Russell Lee Klika, US Army National Guard, Wikimedia Commons.

The geopolitics of aiding the Taliban’s Afghanistan

CHAYANIKA SAXENA ROSHNI KAPUR

Humanitarian assistance must be disentangled from concepts of political legitimacy in the country’s unfolding crisis.

Almost 97 per cent of Afghans will live below the poverty line by the end of 2022. Kabul, Afghanistan, 8 January 2022 (Bilal Guler/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Published 13 Jan 2022

The world has turned a blind eye to the sheer human misery surrounding Afghanistan ever since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021. While several regional countries and institutions have held conferences to discuss ways to avert the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, these talks are yet to transform into pliable actions that can help Afghans deal with their deteriorating living conditions. According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), there has been an increase of 73 per cent in internal displacement since June 2021. Currently, more than 3.5 million Afghans find themselves displaced from their home regions due to insecurity, war and conflict, while approximately 1.2 million have been pushed out of their locales owing to natural disasters including floods, earthquakes and droughts.

G20 leaders, who came to a consensus at the 2021 summit to involve the Taliban in distributing aid to avert a humanitarian crisis, are themselves reluctant to deal with the new regime that comprises proscribed entities and individuals.

As the financial crisis deepens, more than 23 million people are facing severe hunger, with 8 in 10 eating less or borrowing food.

Compounding the challenge, the Afghan economy, which relies heavily on international aid, is in tatters due to sanctions and embargoes. The suspension of financial assistance by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, combined with an American freeze on the disbursal of US$9.5 billion of reserves to the Afghan Central Bank, is expected to take a massive toll on the financial health of Afghanistan. For a country that previously met 80 per cent of its budgetary requirements via international aid, the sudden and prolonged cessation of financial assistance will only make the economic situation, and with it the looming humanitarian crises, even worse.

Afghanistan’s economy of US$20 billion is expected to shrink by US$4 billion or more if the international restrictions persist. This, combined with the limited availability of cash, has already compelled many Afghans to sell their household goods and engage in bartering to survive. As the financial crisis deepens, more than 23 million people are facing severe hunger, with 8 in 10 eating less or borrowing food. Apart from the social consequences of mass starvation, human exploitation and drug abuse that are compounding because of economic desperation, almost 97 per cent of Afghanistan’s total population will be pushed below the poverty line – earning less than US$1.90 per day – by the end of 2022 if international relief does not pour in immediately.

The Covid-19 pandemic has only made matters worse. Medical facilities in Afghanistan are on the brink of collapse in the absence of international aid that had hitherto covered 90 per cent of their operational costs. With more than 10,000 Covid cases reported in the last five months (numbers that are likely vastly underestimated), the onset of the Omicron wave will put more pressure on a healthcare system that is currently functioning without adequate medical supplies, including oxygen, and staff that has not been paid for months. In fact, such is the state of the medical infrastructure in Afghanistan that roughly half of 38 Covid-dedicated hospitals have been forced to shut across the country.

Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid addresses the first press conference in Kabul on 17 August 2021 following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan

 (Hoshang Hashimi/AFP via Getty Images)

The Taliban is making concerted efforts to gain acceptance as a legitimate and responsible actor as the group transitions from an insurgency to de-facto government. Following the takeover of Kabul in a fast military campaign, the group worked with foreign governments on the safe evacuation of their citizens. The Taliban has been appealing to international airlines to resume flights to Kabul in efforts to bring commercial traffic and open up the country.

The Taliban is also convening regular meetings with international organisations to provide official recognition and allow humanitarian aid to flow. The group requested that their desired envoy Suhail Shaheen be allowed to represent Afghanistan at the annual UN General Assembly meeting in September 2021. This request, however, was denied.

Despite the Taliban’s history of disrupting polio vaccination efforts, the group gave permission to health officials to resume door-to-door polio vaccination in October 2021. The group also agreed to restart vaccination campaigns against Covid-19 and measles to demonstrate that it is taking the threat of infectious diseases seriously.

Despite its efforts to project a different image, the Taliban is unlikely to gain international recognition until the group can convince other nations it has truly changed character.

The Taliban is also playing the ISKP (Islamic State – Khorasan Province) card to exploit the security concerns of neighbouring countries. The Doha agreement was signed on the basis that the Taliban would not allow Afghan soil to be used as a launchpad for terrorist activities against the United States. Other countries may sign similar accords with the Taliban seeking similar security assurances – whether that be China or India, the latter having held its first formal diplomatic engagement with the group in August 2021, a departure from its previous approach when the Taliban was in power in the 1990s.

Despite its efforts to project a different image, the Taliban is unlikely to gain international recognition until the group can convince other nations it has truly changed character. The renewed exclusion of women from public life, including barring studying or teaching in secondary schools and banning women from taking solo and long-distance road trips without a male relative, has only reinforced the Taliban’s image as an anachronistic and boorish entity. Yet it is difficult to verify human rights abuses committed by the group, in part due to the suspension of mobile and internet services – and also as a consequence of the suspension of some international support.

Although no country has formally recognised the de-facto government run by the Taliban, it will be useful to use recognition as leverage to make the group more amenable to granting greater political, social and cultural freedom to the citizens of Afghanistan. In doing so, the regional and global powers might also be able to provide the desired humanitarian assistance to the country without running the risk of condoning Taliban’s puritanical ways.