Wednesday, September 28, 2022

What we know: How a cheating scandal has rocked the world of chess

Tom Schad, USA TODAY - Yesterday 

Earlier this month, an up-and-coming American chess player named Hans Niemann beat five-time defending world champion Magnus Carlsen of Norway in convincing – and shocking – fashion at a tournament in St. Louis.



Norway's World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen, makes a move in Game 5 against Ian Nepomniachtchi of Russia, during the FIDE World Championship at the Dubai Expo on Dec. 1, 2021.
© Kamran Jebreili, AP

Niemann, 19, cracked a wry smile in an interview after the match.

"It must be embarrassing for the world champion to lose to me," Niemann said. "I feel bad for him."


The match sparked a cheating scandal that has rocked the world of chess.


On Monday, after weeks of silent protests and cryptic messages, Carlsen formally accused Niemann of cheating in a statement on Twitter, saying in part that he believes the 19-year-old has "cheated more – and more recently – than he has publicly admitted."

As the drama continues to swirl, here's a quick primer on the cheating allegations, the players involved and what could happen next.

Who are Carlsen and Niemann?


Before going further, it's important to know the two players involved.

Carlsen, 31, is the greatest chess player of his generation. He was dubbed by 60 Minutes as "the Mozart of Chess" in a 2011 segment, which showed him playing 10 opponents simultaneously with his back turned, unable to see any of the pieces on the boards.

He's been ranked No. 1 in the world for more than a decade and won each of the past five chess world championships.

Niemann, meanwhile, is ranked No. 49 in the world but is in the midst of a meteoric rise. His Elo rating, which measures the strength of a chess player relative to his peers, has increased by 350 points in a span of four years – raising eyebrows among some of his competitors.

What sparked this feud?


Less than 24 hours after losing to Niemann at the Sinquefield Cup in St. Louis, Carlsen abruptly announced on Twitter that he had withdrawn from the tournament – a first in his career.

Though he did not explain his reasoning for the move, Carlsen posted a video clip of soccer manager José Mourinho saying, "If I speak, I am in big trouble."

Niemann's victory was shocking – and, from Carlsen's standpoint, suspicious – in part because the 19-year-old was playing with the black pieces, which is a distinct disadvantage especially at the upper echelons of competitive chess.

Related video: Carlsen Resigns After First Move Against Niemann: Chess Drama Explained
Duration 1:07

Carlsen had also played an unusual sequence of moves in the match in an attempt to catch Niemann off guard. Niemann said afterwards that, in a coincidence, he had researched that odd sequence of moves – and figured out the best way to reply to them – earlier in the day.

Two weeks later, when Carlsen and Niemann met again in competition at a separate online tournament, Carlsen played just one move before resigning in protest.

What has Niemann said?


Though not directly accused of cheating at first, Niemann nevertheless came forward and admitted to cheating on two separate occasions earlier in his career.

Niemann said in an interview with the St. Louis Chess Club that when he was 12, he played in an online tournament on Chess.com for prize money and his friend used a chess computer, more commonly referred to as an engine, to feed him the best moves.

Then, when he was 16, Niemann said he cheated in lower-level games to improve his rating, because he wanted to play tougher opponents. (In general play, Chess.com matches opponents with comparable ratings.)

Niemann also said, "I have never cheated in an over-the-board game," referring to in-person chess matches like the one he played against Carlsen in St. Louis.

Is cheating possible in chess?

Yes – and some grandmasters have said it's not particularly difficult.

In online events, a player could do what Niemann admitted to previously doing – running a chess engine on a phone or other device that will spit out the best moves. "Over-the-board" cheating is more complicated, but American grandmaster Daniel Naroditsky is among those who say it's been happening "for decades" with the help of technology.

"If you put your mind to it, it is possible to set up a cheating mechanism – even in very high-profile tournaments," he said on his Twitch stream.

In separate incidents in 2015 and 2019, for example, top players were caught hiding phones in the bathroom, then checking moves during bathroom breaks.

Other potential methods include buzzer or signaling systems that could essentially nudge a top player in one direction or another at critical junctures. For top players, simply knowing whether to move one piece versus another might be enough to change the tenor of an entire match.

"I believe that cheating in chess is a big deal and an existential threat to the game," Carlsen said in his statement Monday. "I also believe that chess organizers and those who care about the sanctity of the game we love should seriously consider increasing security measures and methods of cheat detection for over-the-board chess."

What have those organizers said?


The day that Carlsen withdrew from the St. Louis tournament, organizers implemented additional security measures and touted their "fair play rules" as among the most comprehensive in chess.

The International Chess Federation (FIDE) also released a statement late last week. The organization's president, Arkady Dvorkovich, said he did not support Carlsen's decision to resign against Niemann but agrees that cheating is an important issue.

"Whether it is online or 'over the board,' cheating remains cheating," Dvorkovich said. "We are strongly committed to this fight, and we have invested in forming a group of specialists to devise sophisticated preventive measures that already apply at top FIDE events."

What's next?

Some grandmasters and others in the chess community have supported Carlsen but stressed that he should release evidence or a detailed explanation to support his actions. While Carlsen has now directly accused Niemann of cheating, he has not provided concrete evidence to support his claim.

"Unfortunately, at this time I am limited in what I can say without explicit permission from Niemann to speak openly," he said Monday.

Niemann had not publicly responded to Carlsen's statement as of Tuesday morning, and his representatives did not immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

Contact Tom Schad at tschad@usatoday.com or on Twitter @Tom_Schad.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What we know: How a cheating scandal has rocked the world of chess

HOMOEROTICISM IN CHESS

Chess scandal: Out with anal beads, in with cheating accusations

Hans Niemann, accused of cheating - Copyright Chess world

By David Mouriquand • Updated: 27/09/2022 - 

After weeks of anal bead jokes, conspiracy theories and cheating rumours that have rocked the chess world, the gloves are now truly off.

World Champion Magnus Carlsen has finally released a statement following his surprising defeat on 4 September at the Sinquefield Cup in Saint Louis to 19-year-old Hans Niemann, who has been accused of cheating online and using anal beads to… stimulate his chances of winning IRL.

We here at Euronews Culture are still trying to figure out quite how cheating-by-sex-toy works, but we’re trying out several vibrating configurations and will get back to you.


But back to Carlsen.

Last week, he quit an online game in the Julius Baer Generation Cup after playing only one move, leaving announcers shocked and escalating the controversy.

He has stated on Twitter on 26 September that he thinks Niemann is a cheater, over board and online. Furthermore, he now refuses to ever compete against him ever again.

“I believe that Niemann has cheated more - and more recently - than he has publicly admitted,” Carlsen wrote. “His over-the-board progress has been unusual, and throughout our game in the Sinquefield Cup I had the impression that he wasn’t tense or even fully concentrating on the game in critical positions, while outplaying me as black in a way I think only a handful of players can do.


The full statement in text:

Dear Chess World,

At the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, I made the unprecedented professional decision to withdraw from the tournament after my round three game against Hans Niemann. A week later during the Champions Chess Tour, I resigned against Hans Niemann after playing only one move.

I know that my actions have frustrated many in the chess community. I’m frustrated. I want to play chess. I want to continue to play chess at the highest level in the best events.

I believe that cheating in chess is a big deal and an existential threat to the game. I also believe that chess organizers and all those who care about the sanctity of the game we love should seriously consider increasing security measures and methods of cheat detection for over the board chess. When Niemann was invited last minute to the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, I strongly considered withdrawing prior to the event. I ultimately chose to play.

I believe that Niemann has cheated more — and more recently — than he has publicly admitted. His over the board progress has been unusual, and throughout our game in the Sinquefield Cup I had the impression that he wasn’t tense or even fully concentrating on the game in critical positions, while outplaying me as black in a way I think only a handful of players can do. This game contributed to changing my perspective.

We must do something about cheating, and for my part going forward, I don’t want to play against people that have cheated repeatedly in the past, because I don’t know what they are capable of doing in the future.

There is more that I would like to say. Unfortunately, at this time I am limited in what I can say without explicit permission from Niemann to speak openly. So far I have only been able to speak with my actions, and those actions have stated clearly that I am not willing to play chess with Niemann. I hope that the truth on this matter comes out, whatever it may be.

Sincerely,

Magnus Carlsen – World Chess Champion


Magnus CarlsenYOSHUA ARIAS / KEYSTONE

Carlsen has yet to provide any actual evidence for the claims and he seems Carlsen to suggest that he is restricted for legal reasons. We’ll keep you updated on further developments.

Chess grandmaster denies cheating by using anal beads
Hans Niemann, accused of cheatingI
nstagram Hans_niemann

If you thought that chess was boring, the Netflix show The Queen’s Gambit soon sorted that out.

However, some recent cheating accusations have just made the discipline a hell of a lot kinkier.

Indeed, 19-year old chess grandmaster Hans Niemann is currently at the heart of a scandal that is rocking the chess world. Or should that be, making the chess world vibrate.

Niemann has been hit with accusations on social media which state that the only reason he won against the world’s top grandmaster Magnus Carlsen earlier this month is that the young player cheated using wireless vibrating anal beads.

You read that right.

What happened (before anal beads got involved)?

The 4 September win at the Sinquefield Cup in Saint Louis represented something of a meteoric rise for Niemann and was unexpected, as Magnus had not been beaten in 53 sittings. Niemann was the lowest ranking of the 10 players in Saint Louis, and had become the first chess player to beat Carlsen in more than two years.

Carlsen decided to withdraw from the event following his loss.

“I’ve withdrawn from the tournament. I’ve always enjoyed playing in the Saint Louis Chess Club, and hope to be back in the future,” he tweeted.

The five-time World Chess champion also added a video of football coach Jose Mourinho’s 2020 news conference speech held after a game in which his team may have lost due to questionable officiating: “I prefer not to speak. If I speak I am in big trouble… and I don’t want to be in big trouble.”

No further explanation was provided, but many interpreted Carlsen’s post as insinuating that Niemann cheated during the game.

To further spice things up, the same day Carlsen withdrew (5 September), the World Chess Hall of Fame suspiciously decided to beef up its anti-cheating security measures. This included scanning Niemann before his next match.

Is Niemann guilty?


Though no concrete evidence has yet been brought forward to back accusations of cheating, a recent interview in which Niemann acknowledged that he had violated the rules in the past by using computer assistance in online games made the rounds.

In response, Chess.com stated that it had “privately removed” Niemann’s account from its website and the Global Championship in Toronto decided to uninvite Niemann.

Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura said on his Twitch stream that “there was a period of over six months where Hans did not play any prize-money tournaments on Chess.com. That is the one thing that I’m going to say and that is the only thing I’m going to say on this topic.”

Except he didn’t limit it to that, saying that it was “a known fact” that Niemann had previously cheated on Chess.com, referring to the aforementioned interview.

As for grandmaster Eric Hansen, he added that he had removed Niemann from chess events he had hosted due to cheating suspicions.

When does the sex toy come into play?


The issue was already proving to be one of the biggest chess scandals in years, especially because it concerns Niemann, who is notorious in the chess community for his difficult behaviour.

Then, somewhat predictably when it comes to rumour mongering and drama stirring, Tesla CEO Elon Musk waded in.

Musk shared a video on Twitter of an influencer discussing the rumour that Niemann used a vibrating sex toy during the competition in order to cheat.

In a now deleted tweet, Musk even posted a Musk-version of a quote by philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer, writing: "Talent hits a target no one else can hit, genius hits a target no one can see (cause it's in ur butt)."

Charming.


Eventually, Niemann addressed the cheating allegations, admitting he had cheated during virtual Chess.com tournaments when he was younger. However, Niemann said, he never cheated IRL.

“I have never cheated in an over-the-board game. If they want me to strip fully naked, I will do it,” Niemann offered. “I don’t care. Because I know I am clean. You want me to play in a closed box with zero electronic transmission, I don’t care.”

So, a statistical anomaly? A targeted attack spread because Niemann’s abrasive personality is not to the community’s liking? Simply another case of social media being the bin juice of humanity? Or has Niemann elevated the dark art of cheating to a new elaborate level after watching Lock Stock And Two Smoking Barrels one too many times?

Whatever the case may be, if the Chess Federation want to strip players bare for the games just to avoid any cheating allegations, their viewing figures may well spike.

Let’s just hope that the second season of The Queen’s Gambit don’t take any ideas from this cheating saga – although Netflix are now greenlighting NC-17 rated content, no one needs to see squirming players climaxing before a checkmate.

 
 

Elon Musk wades inTwitter

Still, social media couldn’t get enough of it:

 

 

 

FNORD
Unidentified flying saucer crashes into US government aviation logo

Nick Allen - Yesterday 11:09 a.m.

A UFO mysteriously appeared on a US intelligence agency's logo in what officials later suggested had been a mistake.


Logo© Provided by The Telegraph

The flying saucer was spotted on the new seal of the National Intelligence Manager-Aviation (NIM-Aviation], the main air element of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

A spokesman said someone had “erroneously posted an unofficial and incorrect logo", indicating that it may have been an internal prank.

NIM-Aviation works to assess potential security threats from the air.

It was involved in the compilation of a report to Congress last year on research into UFOs, which are referred to by the Pentagon as unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs).

The altered logo also featured a Russian Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet and a triangular-shaped aerial vehicle, all flying over a map of the United States.

The flying saucer was first noticed by a UFO enthusiast who posted about it on Twitter.


Logo© Provided by The Telegraph

He wrote: "UFO in the official seal? Hahahhahaha. Radical. I still can’t believe they did this."

A spokesman later made clear it had not been intentional.

US intelligence has shifted its approach to UAPs, with the phenomena being taken more seriously.

The report to Congress in 2021 concluded that the vast majority of sightings by US military personnel could not be explained.

However. it said in many cases the UAPs were real objects because they had been picked up by multiple sensors.
Highly advanced aircraft

The report was unable to rule out the possibility some of them could be highly advanced aircraft operated by foreign adversaries.

Pentagon researchers reviewed 144 sightings but said only one of them could be confidently explained.

The report was delivered to the House and Senate intelligence committees by Avril Haines, Joe Biden's director of national intelligence.

While the report was released publicly a classified annex was made available only to US senators, which led conspiracy theorists to speculate about what was in it.

Trump’s Truth Social SPAC Changes Address to UPS Store as Investors Pull $137.5 Million



Eileen AJ Connelly
Tue, September 27, 2022 at 9:03 AM·2 min read

Investors have pulled $138.5 million from the blank check company linked to Donald Trump’s Truth Social, and Digital World Acquisition Corp., which was supposed to deliver $1.3 billion to help the former president take on Twitter, has changed its address to a mailbox at a UPS store.

Digital World Acquisition said in a regulatory filing obtained by TheWrap that its address is now 3109 Grand Avenue #450 in Miami. “A search of the address brings up a UPS Store nestled between and Italian restaurant and a nail salon in the waterfront neighborhood of Coconut Grove,” The Financial Times reported.

The change of address came in the same disclosure filed Friday that said investors had been pulling cash from the venture, which has generally disappointed after pulling in far fewer users than hoped.

Also Read:
Trump’s Truth Social Faces Trademark Rejection: ‘Likely Consumers Would Be Confused, Mistaken, or Deceived’

Trump reportedly has about 4 million followers on the site, a fraction of the 80 million he had before getting booted from Twitter after the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.

One impediment to growing the audience is the fact that Truth Social remains banned from the Google Play Store for insufficient content moderation. On Aug. 19, Google told Truth Social it found several violations of standard policies in its app submission and “reiterated that having effective systems for moderating user-generated content is a condition of our terms of service for any app to go live on Google Play,” the Android parent said in a statement.

That prevents Android users from downloading the app. Truth Social launched on the Apple App Store on Feb. 21.

Digital World Acqusition, formed in December 2021, initially raised $1 billion to fund Trump Media.

The disclosure came two weeks after Digital World Acqusition, which is a special purpose acquisition corporation, or SPAC, said it would pay nearly $2.8 million to extend the time it could complete the takeover of Truth Social to December. The funding came from CEO Patrick Orlando’s Arc Global Invesments II, according to CNBC.

The SPAC missed its previous deadline of Sept. 20 to close the deal, enabling investors to pull their funds out after failing to get enough shareholder support to move forward. Earlier this month, fewer than 65% of Digital World’s shareholders voted in favor of the proposal to add 12 months to the terms of the deal to take Truth Social public.

The deal also faces civil and criminal reviews, including from the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is looking into whether the two companies violated securities laws in their discussions.

One former investor told CNBC they pulled financing because of the many legal obstacles facing the company, along with the underwhelming popularity of the platform.
Master Liar Shinzo Abe Doesn’t Deserve This Lavish Funeral

Jake Adelstein
Tue, September 27, 2022 

Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty

TOKYO—The state funeral for Japan’s longest-reigning prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is set to take place on Tuesday.

The majority of the public opposes having the lavish funeral and many in Japanese society are increasingly critical of his time in office. Even in his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), where he ruled with an iron fist for almost a decade, lawmaker Seiichiro Murakami stunned the press by stating very publicly last week, “I always opposed a state funeral for Abe and I won’t attend. His administration wrecked state finances, the economy, diplomacy and even the bureaucracy. He was an enemy of the nation, a pirate.”

In the immediate aftermath of his shocking assassination, Shinzo Abe has received tributes for his international statesmanship. Unfortunately, this praise is in sharp contrast to his domestic legacy: a Japan deeply cynical about truth in public life, where almost no one believes what the government tells them.

This aerial view taken from a helicopter chartered by Jiji Press shows police working at the scene at Kintetsu Yamato-Saidaiji Station in Nara where former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was shot on July 8, 2022.

STR/Jiji Press/AFP 

Posthumous revelations that Abe and many in his Liberal Democratic Party had close ties to the Unification Church, a problematic cult based in South Korea, have damaged the party. The current PM, Fumio Kishida, has seen his support ratings drop as low as 36 percent. In a bizarre turn of events, there is even growing public support and sympathy for Abe’s assassin.

As prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Abe routinely pressured government agencies to give him the results he wanted. He was especially determined to show that “Abenomics,” his much vaunted fiscal policy essentially modeled on Reaganomics, was successful.

Shinzo Abe Was ‘Trump Before Trump’—Except He Pulled It Off

The bureaucrats did their best to dress up the results. In December 2018, the Ministry of Labor was exposed for falsifying job data for years; its adjustments had even made wages in Japan appear to be rising, when in fact they were falling. The faking of data was not simply a matter of optics; more than 20 million people were underpaid for work-related benefits as a result.

In January 2019, the conservative newspaper Nikkei and TV Tokyo conducted an opinion survey and found that nearly 4 out of 5 respondents no longer trusted official statistics. Then, in 2021, the Asahi Shimbun, a liberal newspaper that Abe hated, revealed that the Ministry of Infrastructure had falsified construction contract figures for nearly eight years, primarily during Abe’s administration. This illegal action distorted key economic statistics used to compile important indexes such as the Monthly Economic Report released by the Cabinet Office.

We may never know if Abenomics actually worked, because reams of data would have to be reviewed and corrected—something that the current prime minister says he has no intention of doing. What we do know is that real income fell and the gap between the rich and poor widened in Japan during Abe’s tenure. The plummeting value of the yen in recent months may have something to do with international investors’ belated recognition that Japanese government data is more or less worthless.

The roots of the conservative LDP go back to the Cold War, when it was a major financial and political beneficiary of the CIA’s interference in Japan to ensure that left-wing parties didn’t make it into government. As the leading party of government for decades, the LDP was never a unified entity. Even today, multiple factions—ranging in their political orientation from center-right to right-wing nationalist—constantly jockey for power. Each faction is led by a charismatic leader to whom junior members pledge allegiance.

Abe essentially led the Hosoda faction, and through a ruthless mix of patronage and ostracism of rivals he made it the dominant one. In 2014, during his second term as prime minister, he consolidated power by nominating close associates to head important government committees and major bodies such as the National Security Council, the Bank of Japan, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

In 2014, he extended this control of government and civil service appointments by creating a Cabinet Bureau of Personnel Affairs. He even appointed cronies to the board of the state broadcaster NHK, turning it from a respected, impartial news agency into what came to be widely derided as “Abe TV.” And he used his media influence to keep potential rivals in his own political party in their place.

A woman holds a placard during a protest against Shinzo Abe's State Funeral in front of Shinjuku Station on September 26, 2022 in Tokyo, Japan.
Takashi Aoyama/Getty

But if you want to know how Abe’s Japan really works, you need to know about the Moritomo Gakuen scandal. In 2017, Kyodo News, a nonprofit news agency, and the Asahi broke a story that the Ministry of Finance had intervened to cut the price, by nearly $8 million, of a plot of land purchased by a right-wing private-school operator, Moritomo Gakuen, who planned to build the Abe Shinzo Memorial Elementary—and appointed Abe’s wife, Akie, as its honorary principal.

The affair did not end with that revelation. In 2018, a civil servant named Toshio Akagi, who worked in a local bureau of the finance ministry, committed suicide. He left behind an extraordinary 518-page collection of documents, known as the Akagi File, detailing every step of the scandal and cover-up.

At first, Abe’s government, which ostensibly held onto the file because it contained official records, denied its existence; only last year did it finally release the documents to the public after a concerted campaign by Akagi’s widow, Masako. At a press conference, the finance minister who had also been deputy prime minister to Abe, Taro Aso, admitted that he had known of the file’s existence for a long time.

The documents showed how Akagi had responded to one email request from the ministry in March 2017 to cook the records on the land purchase. “I am uncomfortable and I feel conflicted about altering documents dealing with a confirmed and concluded matter.” A number of other bureaucrats were implicated in falsifying official records of the land deal, but none were ever prosecuted.

In May 2018, the head of Osaka’s Special Prosecutor Office, Machiko Yamamoto, announced that no indictments were being issued for the 38 suspects involved. She refused to give any details or answer questions. A few months later, Yamamoto was promoted and moved to another office. This put her beyond the reach of the Prosecutorial Review Board which could have interrogated her about her questionable decisions.

Masako Akagi sued the government for compensation over her husband’s death. In December last year, the government settled the claim, shutting the case down.

The poison of corruption and mistrust travels through corporate Japan too. No one from Toshiba has been prosecuted for their part in what may have been the largest accounting fraud in Japan’s history, which emerged in 2015, on Abe’s watch. Last year, Japan’s industry minister breezily declared that his ministry had done nothing wrong when officials colluded with Toshiba, which plays a vital role for Japan’s nuclear industry, to share confidential information about foreign investors.


Shinzo Abe speaks at a news conference on May 25, 2020, in Tokyo, Japan.

Kim Kyung-Hoon - Pool/Getty

Never let it be said that Abe did not lead by example. When Japan was bidding to win the 2020 Olympics and the world was worried about the radiation from the damaged Fukushima reactor, where a triple meltdown had taken place, Abe declared, “Fukushima is under control.” This could hardly be further from the truth.

Japan will soon begin pumping into the sea thousands of decaying barrels of highly radioactive water that have been stored on site since the clean-up operation that followed the 2011 nuclear disaster. The government claims that this is safe, that the water will be treated; it neglects to mention that this contaminated water contains strontium, rhodium, iodine, ruthenium, and other hazardous materials, which can’t be filtered out.

You lie as naturally as you breathe,” an opposition party leader once told Abe to his face. On Christmas Day of 2020, in his eighth year as prime minister, he finally admitted it. Abe confessed that he had lied to parliament 118 times, over the illegal use of public funds for a lavish dinner party, and apologized. Although the conduct that forced that apology was entirely characteristic—he was leaving office under the cloud of a criminal investigation into his campaign activities—that statement was a painful admission to part on.

Yet Abe never faced any consequences. He was never prosecuted for a crime, nor were those who covered up for him. And that’s why we have a Japanese government that can’t tell the truth. Lying is rewarded and truth-telling is punished. The government will continue to make up convenient facts, hide inconvenient ones, and hope to be believed. That is part of Abe’s legacy.

Japan’s Ex-Prime Minister Is Behind This Hateful Olympic Scandal

Abe left office with his one great ambition unrealized: to cast off the postwar constitution and replace it with a version based on the pre-war imperial constitution that would enable Japan to become once again a military power. It would be one that his former justice minister, Jinen Nagase, declared in 2012 would be stripped of “basic human rights, popular sovereignty, and pacifism.” The legal scholar Lawrence Repeta pointed out that the new constitution Abe wanted to adopt would also eliminate protections for free speech, renounce universal human rights, elevate public order over individual liberties, and give the prime minister new powers to declare “states of emergency” and to suspend constitutional rights and legal procedures.

Even out of office, Abe continued to exert tremendous influence over the party. At the time of his murder, he was exercising that influence by campaigning for the LDP and his faction. That influence gained a posthumous twist with the result of the election that concluded shortly after Abe’s death. The LDP finally secured enough seats in the upper house to make possible his dream of amending the constitution. But will they? Even beyond the grave, Abe still seems to rule the party.

The costly funeral, which the majority of Japan didn’t want, is now over. The question that everyone should be asking now is this: Can the ghost of Abe be exorcized from Japan? And can the nation learn to tell the truth again?

Read more at The Daily Beast.


Abe's militaristic funeral captures Japan's tense mood


PHOTOS  / 12
TV screens show the news programs reporting the state funeral for former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in Fukuoka, western Japan, on Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022. (Kyodo News via AP)More


FOSTER KLUG
Tue, September 27, 2022 

TOKYO (AP) — The leadup to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's controversial state funeral could seem like a never-ending exchange of heated words — both for and against. But it was the images of Tuesday’s ceremony that most clearly told the story of a nation still deeply divided over the legacy of perhaps the most polarizing leader in its modern history.

Sections of Tokyo, still on edge after Abe's assassination in July, looked more like a police state than the capital of one of the most stable nations in the world. Twenty thousand police officers and more than 1,000 soldiers crammed the neighborhoods around the massive funeral hall, as thousands of protesters took to the streets.

If Japan is sometimes seen from abroad as a monolith of sorts, a largely uniform middleclass haven of social harmony, Abe’s funeral laid bare some of the messy reality of a divided nation. It's a place where the shadow of World War II — a subject Abe spent much of his career addressing — can still loom as large as the economic and security worries that drive modern elections.

For many of the thousands of public mourners who stood in long lines to take turns bowing and laying small bouquets of flowers beneath photos of Abe in a park near the official ceremonies, the former leader spearheaded a heroic, still unfinished quest to make Japan a “normal country.” He encouraged a sense of national pride in Japan's enormous international contributions instead of focusing on a lingering shame over war-era brutality.


“Former Prime Minister Abe was such a great prominent figure. He brought Japan back to international importance after World War II,” said one of the mourners, Masae Kurokawa, 64.

As he left an offering of flowers, Masayuki Aoki, 70, simply said, "I’m emotionally attached to him.”

But Abe, in life and in death, generated as much anger as admiration.

Large groups of protesters marched through Tokyo, banging drums, shouting and holding signs that urged the funeral be scrapped. Similar anti-Abe rallies happened across the country, a reflection of a deep resentment about honoring a man who critics say repeatedly tried to whitewash Japan’s wartime atrocities, stir nationalist sentiment and engage in high-handed leadership.

"Shinzo Abe has not done a single thing for regular people,” said Kaoru Mano, a Tokyo housewife who was at one protest.

The militaristic tones of the funeral were especially striking in a nation that has operated under a pacifist constitution since 1947 — a constitution Abe wanted to revise to expand the military.

A military band played a funeral dirge and a 19-gun volley was fired as his widow brought Abe's ashes into the funeral hall. Dozens of soldiers in crisp, white dress uniforms carried rifles with bayonets as they stood at attention in front of a huge rampart of tens of thousands of white and yellow chrysanthemums that led up to a large photograph of Abe, draped in black ribbon.

Outside the funeral hall, hundreds of police stood outside office buildings, schools and train stations. The extreme security was linked in part to the continuing shock over Abe’s assassination, in which a suspect reportedly angry about the former leader’s links to a conservative South Korean religious group, the Unification Church, allegedly shot him with a homemade gun while he was giving a campaign speech in western Japan.

In some ways, the split public reactions to the state funeral, which has links to prewar imperial ceremonies that celebrated nationalism, reflect Abe’s career-long push to change the way his nation operates on the world stage.

Adored by many in Washington for his staunch military and diplomatic support, he was loathed by liberals at home and by the Koreas and China for his support of conservative revisionist efforts and his push to end apologies over the war.

Abe saw the country's constitution, which was written largely by occupying Americans, as the product of “victor’s justice” by the West over Japan. That constitution renounces the use of force in international conflicts and limits Japan’s military to self defense, although the country has an advanced modern army, navy and air force.

Abe’s legacy is likely to last in the political party he spent years championing. For all the protesters in the streets Tuesday, the Liberal Democratic Party has ruled almost without interruption since the war’s end; Abe won six national elections during his long years in power.

His LDP acolytes are legion, most prominently the current leader, Fumio Kishida, who has vowed to bolster Japan's military capabilities and carry on many of Abe's policies.

“I hereby announce my pledge to create a Japan, a region and a world that are sustainable, inclusive and where everyone shines on top of the foundation that you built,” Kishida said, addressing Abe in his funeral speech.

___

Foster Klug, AP's news director for Japan, the Koreas, Australia and the South Pacific, has covered Japan since 2005.

MISSISSIPPI GODDAMN
Funds to aid Jackson's water system held up as governor rose




Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves announces the state imposed boil-water notice has been lifted in Mississippi's capital city after nearly seven weeks, while Mississippi Emergency Management Agency executive director Stephen C. McCraney, right, listens, during a Sept. 15, 2022, news conference in Jackson. Repairs are still underway after problems at Jackson's main water treatment plant caused most customers to lose service for several days in late August and early September. Reeves blames Jackson's water woes on mismanagement at the city level and water was restored after the state "stepped in" to provide emergency repairs, Reeves said at a September news conference. 
(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)


MICHAEL GOLDBERG
Tue, September 27, 2022 

JACKSON, Miss. (AP) — Years before people in Jackson were recently left without running water for several days, Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves claimed to have helped block money to fund water system repairs in the capital city.

Reeves, a Republican, blames Jackson's water crisis on mismanagement at the city level. The city’s latest water troubles are far from its first, and they have stemmed from decaying infrastructure beyond one water treatment plant. The EPA said 300 boil water notices have been issued over the past two years in the city.

As Reeves climbed Mississippi's political ladder, he cited his opposition to financially helping the capital as evidence of his fiscal conservatism. Jackson-area lawmakers say the troubled water system is one example of Jackson’s status as a political punching bag for Republican officials, who control the Legislature and the state Bond Commission.

“We operate under the golden rule here,” said Democratic Sen. John Horhn of Jackson. “And the golden rule is: He who has the gold makes the rules.”

In Jackson, 80% of residents are Black, and 25% live in poverty. Repeated breakdowns made it unsafe for people to drink from their tap, brush their teeth and wash their dishes without boiling the water first. At a September news conference, Reeves said water service was restored to most of the city only after the state “stepped in” to provide emergency repairs. He also said that he didn't anticipate a need for the Legislature to approve more debt for Jackson's water system.

The specter of another weather-induced water stoppage looms large for some Jackson residents. “Winter is coming,” said Brooke Floyd, a local activist. “He's saying it's fixed. But it's not fixed.”

Water service was also cut off in parts of the city due to a winter storm in 2010. By June 2011, Reeves was locked in a Republican primary campaign for lieutenant governor. As the tea party movement thrust government spending to the center of political debate, his opponent lambasted him for signing off on bond debt increases.

With election day just weeks away, Reeves — who was the state treasurer — appeared on a conservative talk radio show to push his track record as a tightfisted “watchdog” over state legislators eager to borrow. The host, Paul Gallo, wanted to know why Reeves had voted to approve most bond projects as a member of the state Bond Commission. His voting record didn’t tell the whole story, Reeves said. For instance, take the millions in bonds the city had requested to repair its crumbling water and sewer infrastructure.

“I’ve never voted against that because it’s never gotten to the Bond Commission. We are talking to the city of Jackson,” Reeves said. “If we are not comfortable, we never bring it up for a vote.”

The Bond Commission decided not to consider issuing bonds for Jackson water projects that had been authorized by the Legislature, Reeves said.

“Let's just say there is an economic development in a town that doesn't have a lot of political power,” Gallo responded. “The Bond Commission can just refuse to take it up? ... Isn't that the same thing as a negative vote?”

“It is the same thing as a negative vote,” Reeves said.

Most years, the Legislature authorizes projects in one king-sized measure, known in legislators' parlance as “the big bond bill.” Then, the Bond Commission — made up of the governor, attorney general and state treasurer — votes on whether to issue the bonds.

The commission issues most bonds that come up for a vote. In 2011, Reeves' primary opponent said Reeves voted during his two terms as state treasurer to approve too much debt. But some bonds aren't brought to a vote or are delayed, such as those proposed for Jackson water and sewer improvements.

In response to questions at a September news conference, Reeves said his recollection of what happened in 2010 is that the city never prepared the necessary paperwork to receive water bonds authorized by the Legislature. A document obtained by The Associated Press shows city leaders prepared a proposal in 2010 asking the state for $13.5 million in bonds for water system upgrades downtown. The Legislature later approved a dwarfed bond proposal for $6 million.

But after the Legislature's approval, Reeves and Republican Gov. Haley Barbour initially failed to include the city’s water project in the state bonds to be issued in the fall of 2010.

The Legislature added an application requirement for the bond, which former Mississippi Department of Finance and Administration spokeswoman Kym Wiggins told the Jackson Free Press was “exclusive” to Jackson at the time. In order to have its application approved, Reeves said the city would need to answer a number of questions about how the money would be spent.

Barbour and Reeves later relented and voted to approve the bond after city officials made commitments that included funding projects through low-interest loans, rather than the interest-free loans outlined in the legislation.

The governor's office told the AP that as state treasurer, Reeves ultimately voted to approve the bonds. But in the June 2011 interview with Gallo, he said the Bond Commission had refused to put Jackson water bonds on its agenda.

“We make the decision prior to it being on the agenda such that there is not an actual vote,” Reeves said.

Before the Bond Commission gets involved, bond bills proposed by Jackson-area lawmakers frequently fail to make it out of the Legislature.

In the 2022 legislative session, a bill that would have authorized $4 million in bonds for Jackson water and sewer improvements died in committee. Another would have appropriated money to construct a separate water system for Jackson State University, which had to bring in temporary restrooms and portable showers in August as discolored water flowed through dorm faucets.

At another September news conference, Reeves said the state gave Jackson $200 million over the last several years to address its water problems. But the numbers Reeves' office gave Jackson television station WLBT-TV include revenue generated from measures like a 1% sales tax paid only by people who shop in Jackson.

“That is not money that comes from the state of Mississippi,” said Democratic state Rep. Earle Banks of Jackson. “That is money that comes from the citizens of Jackson and people who do business in the city of Jackson.”

With population decline eroding Jackson’s tax base, voters in 2014 overwhelmingly approved a 1% local sales tax for infrastructure repairs. The Jackson city council asked for legislative approval for another election to double that local tax to 2 cents on the dollar. A bill to increase the sales tax died in the 2021 legislative session.

Reeves said Jackson needed to fix its problems with its billing system before “asking everyone else to pony up more money.”

Efforts to attract private investment by keeping taxes low have long been central to Reeves’ economic thinking.

The government does not create jobs; it simply “creates an environment which encourages the private sector to invest capital,” Reeves said in the 2011 interview with Gallo. “And the infrastructure around that is a function of government.”

Reeves said government has a role to play in building infrastructure to hasten development. Those economic principles have not been applied to Jackson, some officials said.

“Look, we can we can bury our heads in the sand and say, ‘Jackson’s problem is not our problem,’” Horhn said. “But when you hear there ain’t no water, and you can’t brush your teeth or take a crap, you strike Mississippi from the list.”

 

EPA preparing plan to help fix Jackson's water system


 Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael S. Regan discusses elements of a coordinated response of federal, state and city agencies, that he hopes will help deal with the city's long-standing water problems, during a Wednesday news briefing, Sept. 7, 2022, in Jackson, Miss. Regan returned to Jackson on Sept. 26, 2022, to meet with officials about developing a plan to fix the city’s troubled water system.
 (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File) 

MICHAEL GOLDBERG
Mon, September 26, 2022 

JACKSON, Miss (AP) — The federal government wants to work with officials in Mississippi's capital city to reach a legal agreement that ensures Jackson can sustain its water system in the future, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan said Monday.

Federal attorneys also sent a letter to city officials Monday threatening legal action against the city if it does not agree to negotiations related to its water system.

Regan returned to Mississippi’s capital city Monday to meet with Jackson officials about the city’s troubled water system. At the meeting with Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba and U.S. Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim, Regan said the federal government would work with the city to "deliver long overdue relief for Jackson residents.”

“The people of Jackson, Mississippi, have lacked access to safe and reliable water for decades. After years of neglect, Jackson’s water system finally reached a breaking point this summer, leaving tens of thousands of people without any running water for weeks," Regan said. "These conditions are unacceptable in the United States of America.”

In a Monday letter sent to city officials and obtained by the news station WLBT-TV, Kim and attorneys for DOJ's Environmental Enforcement Section said they were “prepared to file an action” against the city under the Safe Drinking Water Act, but hoped the matter could be resolved through an “enforceable agreement." The letter said that state and local officials “had not acted to protect public health.”

Regan said in a separate statement that he wants to work with the city to reach a “judicially enforceable agreement,” which would avoid a legal dispute. A Department of Justice spokesperson declined to specify what such an agreement could entail. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss how the federal government might protect public health in Jackson and address “longstanding environmental justice issues” facing the city, the spokesperson told The Associated Press.

In a news release, Lumumba's office said city officials discussed “plans of the federal agencies to immediately engage in negotiations” with Jackson's leadership to address its water system needs.

Most of Jackson’s 150,000 residents lost running water for several days in late August and early September after heavy rainfall exacerbated problems in the city’s main treatment plant. The EPA had already issued a notice in January that Jackson’s system violates the federal Safe Drinking Water Act. Lumumba said coordination with the federal government represents the best path forward for the city to fix its water system.

“We believe that it is imperative that we enter into agreements with a team that is solely and sincerely focused on an objective of ensuring safe and reliable drinking water to the residents of Jackson,” Lumumba said in the news release.

On Sept. 15, Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves and the state health department told people in Jackson that they no longer had to boil water before drinking it or using it to brush their teeth. But disruptions to clean water in parts of the city continued.

Lumumba's office announced new boil-water notices Monday affecting approximately 1,000 water connections in the city. A city spokesperson said a contractor inadvertently severed a water line. This came after multiple major water leaks occurred the previous weekend. Several areas were placed under a precautionary boil-water notice, including the neighborhood home to Millsaps College. The college has asked for donations to help build its own water source.

The EPA said 300 boil water notices have been issued over the past two years in the city, most of which came before the most recent drinking water crisis. “It’s clear this community has suffered long enough,” Regan said.

In early September, Regan came to Jackson to meet with residents and elected officials about the water problems. He said the city needs to receive “its fair share” of federal money to repair the system.

stopgap funding package Congress is set to consider this week includes disaster assistance for Jackson, a person familiar with the legislation said Monday.

Before the latest water crisis, Jackson had already been under a boil-water notice since late July because of cloudy water that could make people ill. Tests by the state health department in 2015 found higher-than-acceptable lead levels in some water samples.

An independent watchdog in the Environmental Protection Agency said in September it was being brought in to investigate Jackson's troubled water system.

In September, four Jackson residents filed a class-action lawsuit in federal district court against the city, Lumumba and his immediate predecessor, three former public works directors, an engineering firm and a business that had a city contract to replace water meters. The lawsuit seeks to force Jackson to make specific fixes, including the removal or repair of pipes and equipment contaminated with lead.

Regan said the EPA has a responsibility to protect the health of Jackson residents.

“The people of Jackson, like all people in this country, deserve access to clean and safe water,” Regan said. "They also deserve more than words – they need action.
___

Michael Goldberg is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/mikergoldberg.
India’s Potash Demand Languishes as World Reels From High Prices




Pratik Parija
Tue, September 27, 2022 at 11:06 PM·2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- India, one of the world’s biggest potash importers, is facing demand destruction due to high prices and the loss of critical supplies from Belarus and Russia.

Potash consumption will probably fall to 3 million tons in the year through March 2023 from 5 million a year earlier, according to P.S. Gahlaut, managing director of Indian Potash Ltd., the country’s top importer of the crop nutrient. Farmers have been using less of it to grow crops like rice, wheat and sugar.

Potash is a fertilizer that helps plants withstand drought and diseases. Prices soared earlier this year after the invasion of Ukraine, with many shippers, banks and insurers avoiding trade with Russia even though fertilizers are not directly targeted by sanctions. The industry is also contending with US and European Union sanctions on potash sales from Belarus, as well as China’s move to restrict exports to protect its domestic market.

Indian Potash has agreed to buy the crop nutrient from Israel, Canada, Jordan and Germany this year at $590 a ton including freight charges, up from around $445 last year. Supplies from Russia and Belarus, two of the three biggest exporters, have come to a standstill because of payment issues, Gahlaut said.

“Our potash availability is comfortable,” Gahlaut said in an interview last week. “The sad part is potash demand has gone down because of high prices.”

Indian Potash will begin annual price talks with suppliers including Russia’s Uralkali PJSC, Israel’s ICL Group Ltd., Arab Potash Co. in Jordan and Canada’s Canpotex Ltd. in November, he added. “People are giving us visits but we’re in no hurry to finalize the price.”

Gahlaut expects global fertilizer prices to decline by 10% to 12% next year due to high stockpiles. Prices will fall further in 2024 as supplies improve, he said.

In India, some farmers have skipped potash application but that’s not having a major impact on crop yields -- at least for now -- as there’s available supply in the soil. It may start affecting agricultural production if they skip potash use continuously for two or three planting seasons, Gahlaut said.

India’s potash consumption fell by about 50% in five months through August from a year earlier, while demand for NPK fertilizers -- the three main nutrients in commercial fertilizers that represent nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium -- has shrunk 20% over the same period, he estimates.

Demand will likely stay flat this winter sowing season unless the government increases the subsidies for fertilizer companies, Gahlaut said. The authorities have said they won’t allow those firms to increase their prices. India is set to announce subsidies soon for the winter season.

“We hope the government is going to increase subsidies. It should be available at an affordable price to boost consumption,” Gahlaut said.
UK
2,500 millionaires to share £1 billion in savings thanks to tax cut


Ross McGuinness
Mon, September 26, 2022

 (Getty Images)

The government's plan to cut the top rate of income tax means 2,500 millionaires will end up sharing £1bn in gains, economists have claimed.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and prime minister Liz Truss have faced a barrage of criticism that last week's mini-budget will make the rich even richer in the midst of a cost of living crisis, which was further exacerbated on Monday when the pound fell to its lowest ever value against the US dollar.

In one of the most controversial measures, Kwarteng announced the top rate of income tax will fall from 45% to 40% from next April.

University researchers have said the move will be of greatest benefit to those people who have incomes of more than £1m.

Read more: Kwasi Kwarteng announces biggest tax cuts since 1972


Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget has been widely criticised as being unfair to people on lower incomes. (PA)

According to research by Arun Advani, David Burgherr and Andy Summers at the London School of Economics and Warwick University, analysing HMRC tax returns data, almost half of the total tax saving created by the policy will go to millionaires.

Those earning £150,000 to £250,000 a year will only receive 10% of the gain made by cutting the 45p tax rate.

In addition, the researchers found that scrapping the rate will grant £1bn in savings to just 2,500 people, all of whom have an annual income of more than £3.5m.

In a tweet, Burgherr wrote: "On average, that's an extra £400k for each of them, every year."

The researchers said cutting the 45p rate was of most benefit to those in the finance and professional sectors, such as bankers and law firm partners.

The research was published on the morning that the pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar since decimalisation in 1971.

Read more: Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng casts doubt over future energy bill support

The pound, which has been slipping steadily in value in the past few months, went into freefall after Kwarteng's mini-budget announcement on Friday.

Sterling fell by more than 4% to just 1.03 dollars in early Asian trading, although it later regained some ground to 1.07 dollars, just days after Kwarteng announced a raft of tax cuts.

Confidence in the pound is at all-time low following last week's government mini-budget, which unveiled the biggest tax cuts in 50 years.

Financial experts have warned that the pound's drop towards parity with the dollar will send the cost of goods soaring even higher, including a pint of beer.


The pound has fallen to its lowest ever level against the US dollar. (PA)

Despite the pound falling off a cliff, Downing Street indicated it will press ahead its massive tax cuts package. Kwarteng has indicated that more will follow in the new year.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Comments by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng that he will go even further with historic tax cuts, which are already being criticised as reckless, have added to the anxiety.

“The worry is that not only will borrowing balloon to eye-watering levels, but that the fires of inflation will be fanned further by this tax giveaway, which offers higher earners the bigger tax break.”

As well as cutting the 45p rate, the government also announced a reduction in the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 19% and the lifting of a cap on bankers' bonuses.

The Resolution Foundation independent think thank said the cuts will mean someone earning £200,000 a year will gain £5,220 a year, compared to someone on £20,000 a year who will gain just £157.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population

The current population of the United Kingdom is 68,681,433 as of Tuesday, September 27, 2022, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data ...





Lula Support Steady, Enough for Outright Win in New Brazil Poll




Andrew Rosati
Mon, September 26, 2022 

(Bloomberg) -- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva rolled into the final week ahead of Brazil’s presidential election, with one poll showing he has the support for a first-round win while another has him inching ever closer to an outright victory on Sunday.

Front-runner Lula would take 52% of valid votes, while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro would take 34% both unchanged from a week ago, according to a survey from Ipec published Monday evening.

Earlier in the day, a poll released by FSB Pesquisa showed Lula taking 48% of valid votes in the first round from 47% previously. Boslonaro held steady at 37%, the poll found.

If a candidate doesn’t take more than 50% of the ballot on Oct. 2 after removing both null and blank votes, the race will go to a runoff on Oct. 30.

Read more: Bolsonaro, Lula Enter Final Week Before Presidential Election

Lula’s advance fell within the FSB Pesquisa poll’s two percentage-point margin of error, but it added to evidence found in a slew of recent surveys showing the former head of state gaining steam. Only about 2% of voters have yet to pick a candidate, though FSB Pesquisa found some 20 million could switch their preference at the last-minute.

“The number of voters who are still willing to change their voting decision in this final stretch is enough to change the outlook, which today points to a second round,” Marcelo Tokarski, director of the polling firm, wrote in a statement.

Candidates other than the current and former president hold 14% of voter preference combined in the first-round, the poll found.

Final Push


After sitting out the most recent televised debate, Lula spent Sunday stumping through Rio de Janeiro, the nation’s second-largest city and a base of support for Bolsonaro, as part of a final push to peel votes away from the incumbent.

But Andrei Roman, the head of AtlasIntel, cautions that support for Lula, 76, may have peaked. The pollster also placed the former president garnering around 48% of support in the first round, according to its latest public survey released last week.

Support for third- and fourth-placed candidates, Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet, is “collapsing,” Roman said in an interview. “What we are seeing is angst around Lula winning in the first round.”

Gomes, a left-wing former governor, has made nods to conservative voters, and more of his backers are now migrating to Bolsonaro, Roman said. While not a majority, “there is a sizable share that is opposed to Lula.”

Even so, Atlas has doubled the odds that Lula wins in the first round, raising chances to 30% from 15% from a month ago.

Analysts are closely watching how Brazilians will react to the final presidential televised debate slated for Thursday evening. Both Bolsonaro, 67, and Lula have said they will attend.

The FSB poll, commissioned by investment bank BTG Pactual, interviewed 2,000 Brazilians between Sept. 23 and 25. Ipec spoke with 3,008 people on Sept. 25 and 26. The Ipec poll had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Three years ago he was in prison. Now he's poised to be Brazil's next president

Kate Linthicum
Wed, September 28, 2022 

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, center, former president of Brazil and a current candidate for the office, at a campaign rally in Nova Iguacu, Brazil. 
(Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

Three years ago, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was languishing in a prison cell.

The former president of Brazil, who led the country from 2003 to 2010, was months into a 12-year jail sentence for corruption. His political career appeared to be over.

So when he took the stage on a recent balmy evening in this working-class city outside Rio de Janeiro — smiling widely as a crowd of thousands chanted his name — it was a comeback that once would have been unimaginable.


People attend a campaign rally for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva near Rio de Janeiro this month. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

Lula, as he is widely known, appears poised to win Brazil's presidential election. The question, polls suggest, isn't whether he will beat far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but when.

Recent surveys have shown Lula with about 45% of the vote compared with 35% for Bolsonaro, putting Lula within striking distance to win outright by capturing at least half the vote in the first round of balloting Sunday. If no candidate wins more than 50%, the top two finishers will go to a runoff election Oct. 30.


A same-sex couple attends a rally for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. 
(Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

A victory for Lula — who was released from prison in 2019 after a court ruled that the judge who oversaw his corruption trial was biased — would cap one of the most remarkable political resurgences in recent memory.

It would be a testament not only to the grit and populist appeal of a man former President Obama once called "the most popular president on Earth," but also to growing concerns about widening inequality that have catapulted a new wave of leftists to power across Latin America in recent years.

Analysts say Lula's domination in the polls has plenty to do with Bolsonaro, 67, a blunt-talking former military officer who has faced his own corruption allegations and who is widely believed to have botched Brazil's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

But Lula has also skillfully tapped into Brazilians' longing for the more prosperous days of his presidency, when the country rose from the world's 13th- to the seventh-largest economy and, as Lula points out often on the campaign trail, average people could afford beef.

"We had some really good years," said Marcelo Franca, a 62-year-old writer. "People are nostalgic for that."

But virtually everybody agrees that if Lula wins, he'll have a hard time replicating his previous success because the political and economic ground has shifted so dramatically.

Brazil's growth during Lula's first two terms was driven by surging global demand for commodities such as soybeans and iron, as well as the discovery of the largest oil reserves in the country's history.

Today the nation, like much of the rest of the world, is trying to climb out of the economic crater left by the pandemic while battling double-digit inflation and rising fuel costs.

"It's a much more complicated world," said Brian Winter, vice president for policy at the Council of the Americas. "It's not nearly as much fun to be a president now as it was during the 2000s."

And if Lula wins, he will be tasked with governing a nation that has never been more divided.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has tapped into Brazilians' longing for the more prosperous days of his presidency, when the country rose from the world's 13th to the seventh-largest economy. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

Since the corruption case against him and the impeachment of his chosen successor, Dilma Rousseff, polarization has become more entrenched, with the left blaming the right for manipulating the justice system and Bolsonaro supporters vilifying Lula as a thief who plans to steal the election.

Bolsonaro has fanned those tensions by borrowing from the playbook of his ally, former President Trump, by sowing doubt about the integrity of Brazil's voting system, which the U.S. insists is sound. Bolsonaro has suggested he may reject the election's results and has hinted at violence, saying he views just three possibilities for his future: “prison, being killed or victory.”

The tense atmosphere was evident at Lula's rally in Nova Iguaçu, where spectators were frisked for weapons and Lula's chest bulged with a bulletproof vest.

At 76, the candidate's trademark beard and curly mop of hair have gone white. His famously husky voice has taken on a more gravelly tone since a 2011 bout with throat cancer.

A Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva supporter becomes emotional. Brazil, like much of the rest of the world, is trying to climb out of the economic crater left by the COVID-19 pandemic while battling inflation and rising fuel costs. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

But when Lula started speaking, railing against classism, racism and Bolsonaro, to many it was as if time had stopped.

"People don’t opt to be poor," he said. "We want to work, we want to eat well, we want our kids to have good clothes and shoes and three meals a day.”

It could have been two decades ago, when Lula first took office, or half a century ago, when he captured national attention as a pugnacious union leader challenging the country's military dictatorship.

Born into a poor family in Brazil's northeast, Lula left school at age 12 to help support his siblings and mother. A few years later, he lost his pinkie finger in an accident at an auto parts factory.

After organizing steelworker strikes that were credited with helping topple the dictatorship in 1985, Lula ran three unsuccessful presidential campaigns — in 1989, 1994 and 1998.

He won election in 2002 after compromising with the same powerful business interests that he had long criticized.

It was a heady time for leftists in Latin America.

The so-called pink tide had brought a whole cast of them to power — from Argentina to Bolivia to Ecuador.

The movement's figurehead was President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, a self-described Marxist who nationalized key industries and redistributed wealth to the poor while bending the constitution to stay in power.

Lula stood out as less of an ideologue and more of a pragmatist. He chose a Wall Street banker to head Brazil's Central Bank, and when other leftist governments were defaulting on international loans, Brazil paid them back early.

In that way, he's a model for the current class of left-of-center politicians who have won election in recent years in Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Panama and Honduras.


Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, shown in a TV campaign ad, appears poised to win Brazil's presidential election over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

Several leaders of what analysts call the "new pink tide," including Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, have borrowed elements of Lula's signature health, education and social programs, albeit with mixed results.

That's in large part because his program, one that gave cash transfers of $30 a month to 12 million working-class families, led to such radical changes.

During Lula's time in office, 20 million people vaulted out of poverty and the number of Afro-Brazilians attending university tripled.

Rafaela Albergaria was one of those new students, becoming the first person in her family to go to college.

“I’m the embodiment of Lula's policies,” she said.

A social worker from a blue-collar city outside Rio de Janeiro, Albergaria is a candidate for the state legislature this year under Lula's Workers' Party and is part of a nationwide movement that has encouraged Black women to run for office. She carries a red tote bag emblazoned with Lula's face, and her campaign posters feature pictures of him embracing her in a bear hug.

Albergaria, 32, is thankful for Lula's support.

But she is a reminder that if he wins, he will face pressures from those on the left calling for more radical action on issues such as gender equality, police brutality and climate change.

“We don’t just want Lula," Albergaria said. "We want more."

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.