Monday, June 26, 2023

Defiant Yevgeny Prigozhin breaks silence, says Wagner mercenaries to operate from Belarus

Robyn Dixon and Mary Ilyushina
 Jun 27 2023

Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin has resurfaced for the first time since his mutiny, and declared that his motive was to save the private militia from being subsumed into the Russian military – not to topple President Vladimir Putin.

Prigozhin, who did not disclose his whereabouts, said he ordered the rebellion after Russia's military killed 30 Wagner fighters in a missile strike on one of the militia's camps, and he said he accepted a deal to avoid prosecution and move to Belarus because it would allow Wagner to continue its operations there.

Whatever his intentions, however, Prigozhin's brazen revolt confronted Putin with the fiercest challenge he has faced in more than 23 years as Russia's supreme leader, and it laid bare bitter divisions over the handling of the war in Ukraine that could have serious repercussions on the battlefield.

Ukrainians remain staunchly unified in the defence of their sovereign territory, and the Ukrainian military on Monday claimed further progress in its counteroffensive to drive out occupying Russian forces, by taking control of Rivnopil, the ninth village it has recaptured this month.

Speaking in an 11-minute audio address posted on Telegram on Monday, Prigozhin said Wagner fighters were strongly opposed to signing contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry – as they had been ordered to do by July 1 – because it would have effectively dismantled the group. Wagner had decided to hand back its equipment to the Defence Ministry when the missile strike occurred, he claimed.

Prigozhin expressed regret about Russian aircrews killed by Wagner during Saturday's rebellion, "but these assets were dropping bombs and delivering missile strikes," he said.


AP
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, looks out from a military vehicle on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023, leaving an area of the headquarters of the Southern Military District.

He boasted that Wagner was perhaps the "most experienced and combat-ready unit in Russia, and possibly in the world" and had performed a huge number of tasks in the interests of the Russian state, in Africa, the Middle East "and around the world".

"Recently, this unit has achieved good results in Ukraine," he said, adding that Wagner had received an outpouring of support from Russians in Saturday's revolt, which he called a "march for justice".

While Prigozhin issued his defiant statement, Russia's embattled leadership tried to demonstrate control on Monday after the bruising, chaotic mutiny by airing a video of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting a command post. The Kremlin released video of a recorded address by President Vladimir Putin to young engineers.

It was not clear when the video address by Putin was recorded, leaving questions about his whereabouts still swirling as Russians grappled with the aftermath of the crisis. Other key figures in the crisis remained out of sight.

Shoigu's exact whereabouts and the timing of the video released by the Defence Ministry also were not clear. Russian media reported that it was prerecorded, probably on Friday, before the Wagner rebellion.

By contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited his troops near the front lines in eastern Ukraine on Monday and his office quickly released video of him greeting soldiers.

VADIM SAVITSKY
In this handout photo released by Russian Defence Ministry, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu attends a session of the Council of Defence Ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation in Minsk, Belarus, in May 2023.

As a state of emergency in the Russian capital was lifted, Russians were left trying to make sense of Putin's reversal from his threat of tough action against what he called "treason," and what it could mean in the near term, especially for the ongoing war in Ukraine, and in the longer term for stability in the country and for Putin's political future.

State-owned media, meanwhile, reported Monday that the insurrection charges against Prigozhin had not yet been rescinded. The Kremlin on Saturday had announced that the charges would be dropped as part of the deal in which Prigozhin agreed to halt his military advance on Moscow and leave Russia for Belarus.

Key questions about the deal remained unanswered, and messaging from Russian officials about Wagner's future appeared confused, amid signs that the militia would be allowed to continue to function, despite calls for it to be curbed.

Until his Telegram post, Prigozhin had not been heard from since leaving the southern city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday to cheers and shouts of support.

Russian news outlet Verstka reported that a Wagner base for 8000 soldiers was being constructed in Belarus, in the Mogilev region southeast of Minsk. The report could not be confirmed.

Putin was seen during his emergency address to the nation on Saturday amid the crisis, but there was speculation that he might have left Moscow for one of his residences northwest of the capital, after two planes from Russia's special fleet used by Putin departed the city that day.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the president was "working in the Kremlin" and that the two planes returned to Moscow on Sunday evening, Russian news outlet Agentstvo reported.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called for moves to strengthen Russian unity in the wake of the crisis, but he insisted that the Russian government worked "smoothly and clearly" during the crisis.

"It is important to ensure the sovereignty of the Russian Federation and the security of citizens, taking into account recent events," Mishustin said at a meeting of deputy prime ministers Monday. "It is necessary to consolidate society against the backdrop of an attempted armed rebellion."


In this handout photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov speaks during his meeting with Li Hui, China's special envoy for Eurasian affairs, in Moscow, Russia, in May 2023.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wagner would continue operating in Mali and the Central African Republic, calling Wagner operatives there "instructors". Wagner has political advisers and influence operations in many African countries and provides security in Mali and the Central African Republic.

Lavrov said the US ambassador to Russia, Lynne Tracy, had spoken with Russian government representatives Sunday and conveyed Washington's view that the events were Russia's internal affair and its hope that Russian nuclear weapons remained secure.

"It was especially emphasised: The United States proceeds from the fact that everything that happens is an internal affair of the Russian Federation," Lavrov said in an interview with the state-controlled television network RT.

Lavrov added that Putin received "numerous calls" on Saturday from representatives of other countries who "expressed solidarity" and "confidence that we will not allow attempts to undermine the unity of our state and the success of the special military operation." He did not specify which countries, he said, because "they asked not to talk about their calls publicly."

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Ukraine had regained roughly 80 square kilometres in the country's south.

News coverage by Russian media displayed how deeply the events have rattled Putin's authoritarian state, which is built on his power as supreme leader, with the rule of law readily dispensable and competing fiefs – including oligarchs and officials - jostling constantly for presidential favour, state benefits and influence.


UNCREDITED/AP
Members of the Wagner Group military company load their tank onto a truck on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023, prior to leaving an area at the headquarters of the Southern Military District.

An opinion column in the Russian newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets said that the "most terrifying scenario" – of fighting in the streets of Moscow and elsewhere and a split in Russia's military and security forces – had been averted.

"Russia displayed its vulnerability to the whole world and to itself. Russia dashed to the abyss at full speed and with the same speed stepped back from it," the columnist, Mikhail Rostovsky, wrote under the headline: "Prigozhin Leaves, Problems Remain: Deep Political Consequences of a Failed Coup."

But there were signs of a potential crackdown on Russian private military companies, with widespread calls to bring them to heel, even though they are already technically illegal in Russia. One key reason for Wagner's mutiny was Prigozhin's refusal to sign Defence Ministry contracts that would have sidelined the militia and submitted it to Shoigu's authority.

Russia's Federal Security Service, or FSB, carried out raids Saturday at the addresses of current and former Wagner mercenaries, Russian media outlet Important Stories reported.

Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the defence committee in the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, told the Vedomosti newspaper there was no need to ban Wagner, calling it the most combat-ready unit in Russia. Kartapolov said Wagner fighters could continue to serve in the war in Ukraine if they signed contracts with the military. Such a path may be unpalatable to many Wagner fighters, who are intensely loyal to Prigozhin.


UNCREDITED/AP
Membes of the Wagner Group military company sit atop of a tank on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023, prior to leaving an area at the headquarters of the Southern Military District.

The state-controlled Tass news agency reported Monday that Wagner's recruiting offices in Novosibirsk and Tyumen had reopened, after they closed during the mutiny, and that the group's office in St. Petersburg was open and working. Wagner is seen by many in Russia as a more prestigious, elite and effective force than regular Russian military units.

Another newspaper, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, called for all armed formations not officially part of the security structures to be disarmed given "today's political reality," in an article published Sunday.

"The events of June 24 will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for the country. It became clear that a man with a gun, if he is not a state official, is a real threat to the state and statehood," the newspaper's editor, Konstantin Remchukov, wrote in an opinion column.

"In Russia there should not be armed people who are loyal first to their commanders and only secondarily to someone else."

Social media pages connected to Prigozhin, Wagner and key figures associated with him were blocked on Saturday. By Sunday, many pro-Kremlin Telegram channels were rushing to discredit the Wagner leader.

In St. Petersburg, local media published photographs of gold bars, fake passports, millions in cash and "white powder" reportedly seized from his properties by the authorities.

Alexander Khodakovsky, head of the pro-Moscow Vostok Battalion, which is fighting in eastern Ukraine, published a story that Prigozhin had one of his underlings beaten "half to death," after the subordinate told the mercenary leader that it would not be possible to recruit 1000 Russian prisoners, but only 300.

"This incident told me everything: I made an approximate psycho-portrait of Prigozhin, and I began to warn everyone of the growing threat," Khodakovsky wrote.

"It was clear to me that a person with such manners serves only his own interests," he added.

"I always cringed when I saw how the figure of Prigozhin was erected on a pedestal."


Full speech: Putin defiant in address to nation after attempted armed rebellion

In his first remarks since the Wagner Group’s attempted rebellion, Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked Wagner mercenary fighters and commanders who had stood down “to avoid bloodshed.” He also said he would honor his promise to allow fighters to relocate to Belarus.

June 26, 2023


 

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu Makes 1st Appearance Since Wagner Group's Revolt

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had mounted a revolt against the Russian government to topple Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov. The revolt ended when Prigozhin struck a deal with Kremlin.

Rusian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, the target of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin 
Getty Images


UPDATED: 26 JUN 2023 

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has made his first public appearance since the Wagner Group revolted and sought his ouster.

The Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner Group, a private military earlier often referred to as Kremlin's sword-arm, had revolted on Friday against the Russian defence establishment and had sought the sacking of Shoigu and General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov. The rebellion finally ended on Saturday night when Prigozhin announced that he is halting his military's march to Moscow. It was followed by an announcement of a deal between him and Kremlin.

Though Russian President Vladimir Putin made a statement after Prigozhin revolted and captured a Russian military headquarters, swearing to "punish" those "on path of treason" who had dealt a "stab in the back", no comment or public appearance has since come from Putin, Prigozhin, or Gerasimov.

The purported public appearance of Shoigu in a video released through official channels is the first public apperance by a senior figure. Sky News noted that it's not yet confirmed when or where the video was taken. The Associated Press (AP) said that the "Defence Ministry released a video showing Shoigu flying in a helicopter and then attending a meeting with military officers at a military headquarters in Ukraine".
It was unclear what would ultimately happen to Prigozhin and his forces. Few details of the deal were released either by the Kremlin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko who brokered it. Prigozhin's whereabouts have been unclear since he drove out of Rostov-on-Don in an SUV Saturday. He and his forced had captured the city and the Russian military headquarters there that oversees the Ukraine war efforts.

Before starting the revolt, Prigozhin had blasted Shoigu and Gerasimov with expletive-ridden insults for months, attacking them for failing to provide his troops with enough ammunition during the battle for Bakhmut, the war's longest and bloodiest battle.

Putin stood back from the rift, and Shoigu and Gerasimov remained mum, possibly reflecting uncertainty about Putin's support. Observers said that by failing to end the feud Putin had encouraged Prigozhin to dramatically up the stakes.

Asked by reporters Saturday whether Putin still trusts Shoigu, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded he wasn't aware of any changes in the president's attitude. Commenting on whether any changes in military leadership were discussed during negotiations with Prigozhin, Peskov responded that personnel changes were the exclusive prerogative of Putin as the commander-in-chief and so it wasn't a subject for discussion.

Russian media and commentators speculated that Putin could replace Shoigu with Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region who had previously served as a a Putin bodyguard and then a deputy defence minister. They noted that Putin, who avoids making decisions under pressure, would likely wait before announcing a shakeup.

The US had intelligence that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border with Russia for some time. That conflicts with Prigozhin's claim that his rebellion was a response to an attack on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military, which he said killed a large number of his men. The Defence Ministry denied attacking the camps.

US Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said Prigozhin's march on Moscow appeared to have been planned in advance.

He told CBS Face The Nation, "This is something that would have had to have been planned for a significant amount of time to be executed in the manner in which it was."

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the weekend's events as "extraordinary", recalling that 16 months ago Putin appeared poised to seize the capital of Ukraine and now he has had to defend Moscow from forces led by his onetime protege.

He told NBC's Meet The Press, "I think we've seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade. It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there, but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead."

It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine. But it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the battlefield: the Wagner troops, who had shown their effectiveness in scoring the Kremlin's only land victory in months, in Bakhmut, and Chechen soldiers sent to stop them on the approach to Moscow.

The Wagner forces' largely unopposed, rapid advance also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's security and military forces. The mercenary soldiers were reported to have downed several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Defence Ministry has not commented.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, speaking to reporters before chairing a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, where they will discuss more support for Ukraine, said that the revolt showed that the war is "cracking Russia's political system".

Borrell said, "The monster that Putin created with Wagner, the monster is biting him now. The monster is acting against his creator. The political system is showing fragilities, and the military power is cracking."

(With AP inputs)

Wagner Will Continue Mali, C.Africa Operations: Lavrov


A private security guard from the Russian group Wagner stands next to a Central African Republic soldier during a rally. Photo Barbara Debout/AFP via Getty Images

JUNE 26, 2023

The Wagner mercenary group will continue operations in Mali and the Central African Republic despite its leader’s aborted insurrection over the weekend, Russia’s foreign minister said on Monday.

Wagner members “are working there as instructors. This work, of course, will continue,” Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with the RT outlet.

Lavrov said Europe and France in particular had “abandoned” the two African countries, which had, in turn, asked Russia and Wagner to provide military instructors and “to ensure the security of their leaders.”

Western powers believe the Wagner group is used to promote Russia’s influence abroad and have accused the group of torturing and exploiting natural resources.

In the RT interview, Lavrov also said the rebellion by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin would not change anything in Russia’s ties with its allies.

“There have been many calls (from foreign partners) to President (Vladimir) Putin… to express their support,” he said.

Asked if there could be any changes to Russia’s international relations as a result, Lavrov said: “With partners and friends, no. As for the others, frankly, I don’t care. Relations between the collective West and us have been destroyed.”

Wagner rebellion: Why Americans should pay attention

THE HILL
- 06/26/23 

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived rebellion against Russian military leadership signals strains within Russia and raises concerns about the country’s leadership as Moscow continues its war on Ukraine, officials and analysts say.

Prigozhin on Friday launched fighters in an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister, accusing Sergei Shoigu of ordering a strike on the mercenary group’s field camps as they fought for Russia in Ukraine.

Prigozhin’s fighters reached the location of Russia’s southern military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and began moving toward Moscow, but the Wagner chief Saturday ordered his forces to stop the advance.

He reportedly reached a deal with the Kremlin, with help from Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko, a key Putin ally, and has agreed to move to Belarus.

Here are some of the concerns being raised after the rebellion inside Russia:
The rebellion raises questions about Putin’s power

Putin “put down the rebellion, but at great cost,” former United States Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan said Monday on “CBS Mornings.”

“He labeled Prigozhin a traitor, and Prigozhin was leading a military column to Moscow. And then Putin struck a deal with him and let him go free. That’s extraordinary, to call someone a traitor … because the rationale — why he had to strike the deal, this is according to the Kremlin spokesman — they needed to avoid bloodshed and chaos. What does that say about Putin’s control over the country? It doesn’t speak well,” Sullivan said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the rebellion shows “cracks in the Russian facade” amid Russia’s 16-month war on its neighbor.

“And it was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. So this raises profound questions. It shows real cracks,” Blinken said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”

“Sixteen months ago, Russian forces were on the doorstep of Kyiv, in Ukraine, thinking they’d take the city in a matter of days, thinking they would erase Ukraine from the map as an independent country. Now, over this weekend, they’ve had to defend Moscow, Russia’s capital, against mercenaries of Putin’s own making,” Blinken said.

Former CIA Director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said Sunday that Prigozhin “lost his nerve” when he called off the rebellion.

“He was … within roughly two hours’ drive of the outskirts of Moscow, where they were starting to prepare defensive positions. This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn’t appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would. And again, he decided to take the deal. He gave up this effort,” Petraeus said of Prigozhin on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
It could be a ‘distraction’ in Russia’s war on Ukraine

Blinken said the rebellion “presents a real distraction for Putin that could “create greater openings for the Ukrainians to do well on the ground” as they mount their their counteroffensive efforts.

Prigozhin “has raised profound questions about the very premises for Russian aggression against Ukraine in the first place,” Blinken said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” The Wagner chief challenged Putin’s justification for Moscow’s ongoing war on its neighbor that the invasion was necessary to denazify and demilitarize the country.

“The war was needed by oligarchs. It was needed by the clan that is today practically ruling in Russia,” Prigozhin said in a video.

Blinken noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is “progressing” against Russian defenses, as Kyiv pushes to take back occupied territory.

“And to the extent that Russia is now distracted, that Putin has to worry about what’s going on inside of Russia as much as he has to worry about what he’s trying to do not successfully in Ukraine, I think that creates an additional advantage for the Ukrainians to take advantage of,” Blinken said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who also spoke with President Biden about the events unfolding over the weekend, said after the rebellion that “Russia’s weakness is obvious.”

“For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it,” Zelensky said.
The deal raises questions about Belarus’s role

The Institute for the Study of War said Sunday that Russia is facing a “deeply unstable equilibrium.”

Among other complications, “the optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits,” the group wrote in a new report.

The deal in which Lukashenko was reportedly involved is “a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian [Ministry of Defense],” the ISW argues.

“Lukashenko was reelected in a sham election in August 2020. Massive protests. Putin helped him put those down and kept him in power. Now, Putin seems to be more dependent on Lukashenko than the other way around,” Sullivan said, arguing that Belarus and its president have been “completely dependent” on Putin and Russia in the past.

“There are many examples of how this — these extraordinary events not only give the appearance of weakness, but actually show real weakness by Putin,” Sullivan said.
Concerns stoked over Russia’s nuclear weapons

“I would think the preeminent concern of American officials today: Who’s in control in Moscow, and in particular, who’s controlling the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world? That affects all Americans. It affects the entire world,” Sullivan said.

The former ambassador noted that Russia is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, tasked with protecting international peace.

“Instead, it’s introduced war and chaos, and Putin controls a massive nuclear arsenal. So that’s a grave concern,” he said. 

Nuclear weapons have long been a concern amid Russia’s war, with Putin’s threats last year prompting White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan to warn against Moscow following through. Fighting has also led to instability around Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, stoking worries of nuclear accident.

Putin sent nuclear weapons to Belarus earlier this month, purportedly part of a plan to raise fears of escalation. Lukashenko said Belarus received the weapons and would not hesitate to use them.

“God forbid I have to make a decision to use those weapons today, but there would be no hesitation if we face an aggression,” Lukashenko said.

Wagner Group's Prigozhin releases 1st message since mutiny

Published 2 hours ago

In his first remarks since launching — and ending — an insurrection against Russian military leaders over the weekend, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin said the aim was to avoid the destruction of the mercenary force


Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin released an audio message on Monday, his first statement since a failed revolt by his mercenary forces in Russia.

He said the goal was not to overthrow Russia's political leadership, but rather to protest Russian military leaders' ineffective conduct during its war in Ukraine.

What did Prigozhin say?

The Wagner Group leader posted an 11-minute-long audio message to Telegram, explaining why he and his forces mutinied against the Russian military and marched towards the Russian capital of Moscow.

"We started our march because of an injustice," Prigozhin said. He reiterated claims that the Russian military had fired on Wagner forces and that the mercenary group set off for Moscow in reaction to being attacked.

Prigozhin emphasized that the goal of the march was not to oust Russian President Vladimir Putin's government.

"We went to demonstrate our protest and not to overthrow power in the country," he added.

He did not provide details about his whereabouts in the message and did not comment about his future plans.



Unveiling Resistance: The Struggle for Women’s Rights in Iran


Published in: Clingendael
Tara Sepehri Far
Iran and Kuwait Senior Researcher, Middle East and North Africa Division@sepehrifar
HRW

An elderly Iranian woman walks along a street-side in Tehran without wearing her headscarf, October 2, 2022. 
 © 2022 Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via AP Photo

The sweeping public protests that erupted across Iran in response to the death of Mahsa (Jina) Amini in custody of Iran’s morality police last September have been characterized by many observers as the first feminist uprising in the region. The visually powerful images of women and girls defying compulsory hijab laws in the streets and the slogan “women, life, freedom” have strengthened this characterization and drawn broad international sympathy. But the sweeping protests and their demands for fundamental change were met with a brutal government crackdown that resulted in hundreds of deaths and tens of thousands of arbitrary arrests. Almost nine months later, women’s right to choose their own way of dressing remains at the center of the protest movement. Understanding why requires a closer look at how the broader struggle of women for equal rights in Iran has evolved over the years.

Charting the course of women's right movement in Iran

Iranian women experience discrimination in law and in practice in ways that deeply impact their lives, particularly with regard to marriage, divorce and custody issues. Post-1979 compulsory hijab laws affect virtually every aspect of women’s public life in Iran. In today’s Iran, a woman’s access to employment, education, social benefits and proper health care — and even her mere public presence in society— depends on complying with compulsory hijab laws, which are routinely enforced through a web of rules and arbitrary interpretation by state agents as well as businesses. However, despite its overarching impact on women’s rights and freedoms, the choice of dress code as a right was not taken up by Iran’s women’s movement as a collective issue until recently. Instead, the battle against enforcement of the compulsory wearing of the hijab was largely fought by the individual acts of millions of women, including activists, across the country - rather than via groups or institutions.

Iran has a decades-long history of movements promoting women’s rights, both before and after the revolution of 1979. Most of them pursued a vision of equality under law and sought to redress the gap regarding legal protection by promoting international human rights instruments. The most notable example after the revolution is the coalition of Islamist and secular feminist activists who came together to establish the “One Million Signature Campaign to Demand the Repeal of Discriminatory Laws” in 2006. Focus issues included age discrimination in establishing criminal responsibility and marriageable age, inequality in inheritance and discrimination of mothers as guardians in case of divorce. The issue of the compulsory hijab was notably absent. While the “One Million Signature Campaign” did not achieve its stated goal of fully repealing the set of relevant laws, it created strong bonds among students and labor activists and trained a generation of activists in legal advocacy. Similar to other movements, this group of activists came under significant state pressure and faced large-scale arrests during the Ahmadinejad presidency.

The pressure on the movement combined with the repression that followed the 2009 presidential election protests increasingly foreclosed avenues for legal reforms and led dozens of human rights defenders and activists to go into exile. It also shifted the focus of women’s rights defenders towards promoting women’s representation, including the presence of women in public life. During the presidency of Hassan Rouhani, Shahindokht Molaverdy, the then-vice president for women and family affairs and a figure close to the women’s rights movement, came under immense pressure from the judiciary to prevent any such change and was only able to take minor steps in advancing women’s rights. During this period, the women’s movement focused most of its activities on achieving more representation in elected positions, greater women’s attendance of sporting events, and better protection against sexual harassment in public as well as work spaces.

Digital dissent: How social media changed the movement


The expansion of internet access in Iran has been integral to the next shift in activism. It has enabled millions to share information outside official channels of communication and also blurred the line between the public and the private as it enables youth and women to blog about their lived experiences and share images of ordinary life on social media. Despite state-imposed internet restrictions, popular social media platforms such as Instagram, are used widely by lifestyle bloggers, women-led businesses, and public figures to promote their activities. Millions of Iranians use VPNs to circumvent internet censorship.

This shift from legal advocacy to digital social protest continues to push the boundaries of the social debate in public life. Since the summer of 2020, dozens of Iranian women from various backgrounds have taken to social media to share their stories of sexual harassment and assault by influential men in various industries. They have formed their own #metoo movement and achieved the arrests of a number of those accused of harassment, community condemnations, and exoneration of two actresses who had faced defamation charges for speaking up.

It was also this shift in women’s rights discourse and the accompanying expansion of online platforms that empowered the exiled activist Masih Alinejad to initiate formal campaigns against the compulsory hijab starting in 2014. The issue was forced to the center of the political debate in December 2017, when 31-year old Vida Movahed stood on a metal utilities box on Enghelab (Revolution) Street in central Tehran without a hijab and silently waved a white scarf from a stick, sparking a series of acts of bold defiance by women who became known as the girls of revolution street.

The compulsory hijab and state-society relations in Iran

Iran’s penal code criminalizes appearance of women in public space without “sharia hijab”. The offense is punishable by a fine, or imprisonment between 10 days to two months. According to a government-linked survey that was conducted in 2014, almost half of the respondents took the view that the government should not intervene on the issue. The corresponding figure in 2005 was 34%. A more recent report published by the parliamentary research center states that 70 percent of Iranian women do not abide by the government’s interpretation of hijab regulations under Islamic law. The report also flags the risk that further criminalization of disobeying sharia hijab legislation can weaken government’s social legitimacy. Despite officials’ admission that Iranians’ views are shifting, enforcement of the hijab remains an article of faith among hardliners in Iran. The government has invested significant resources in promoting and enforcing hijab laws, as well as initiated harsh crackdowns against those who peacefully mobilize against them. Government propaganda equates observance of hijab with the preservation of family values and traditional social structures.

Recently pronounced prolonged sentences against human rights defenders for peacefully opposing the hijab, as well as viral scenes of police violence against women and girls who do not abide by compulsory hijab have contributed to public frustration and stoked political dissent. The 2021 elections, which solidified the control of hardliners, also gave rise to a wave of enforcement of repressive laws against women, including hijab compliance. In July 2022, a video of 28-year old Sepideh Rashno resisting harassment and vigilante enforcement of the compulsory hijab on a bus went viral. Rashno was arrested and, a month later, dragged in front of cameras to apologize. In the footage, Rashno looked pale and had dark circles around her eyes. Instead of instilling fear among Iranian women, social media responses to the incident suggest it rather created widespread indignation.

In many ways, continued enforcement of the compulsory hijab can be viewed as the quintessential symbol of popular disconnect with the Islamic republic: Amid the government’s mounting inability to meet people’s basic needs, an increasingly unpopular and abusive policy remains imposed on people and is enforced with impunity by state agents. In that sense, the fate of Mahsa (Jina), a young woman wearing an outfit considered unremarkable to many, was one that could befall many Iranian women or their loved ones. Protesters saw her death at the hands of morality police not as an accident, but as the result of a systemic pattern of brutal violation of women’s right that is exercised with both callousness and impunity.

Those who took to the street in protest to demand fundamental change included political and social elites that had hesitated to join earlier street protests. Now they showed support by removing their headscarves in public. This established an important thread of continuity between earlier protest movements – as discussed above - and the present defiance of women of compulsory hijab laws. The women and girls on the street view their individual acts of resistance as connected to a broader struggle. Ultimately, the matter of the hijab is not just about women claiming back the right to dress as they wish from the state, or about advocating for the elimination of a set of abusive state enforcement practices. Rather, the real stakes are a multilayered fight for the rewriting of the social laws, codes and practices that determine a women’s life and place in society, including within families. For example, nine months after her release, Rashno wrote on her Instagram page how, during her detention, her conservative brother and father had come closer to supporting her cause. Several other women have written about how the movement has enabled new conversations with their families about their choice of dress, their position at home and their role in society.

Is fundamental change imminent?

It is precisely because the matter is much more fundamental than a choice of clothes that the Iranian government has not shown signs of reversing course. The authorities have responded to the mounting resistance against the compulsory hijab with an array of policies and draft legislation that seek to increase enforcement of the compulsory dress code through facial recognition detection, pressure on businesses to enforce laws, and punishments that include fines and deprivation of social benefits for those who refuse to comply. This vision was clearly outlined in a policy document prepared by the government’s Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice in 2021, which seeks to reduce public tension while expanding enforcement outside the legal arena. The impact of these new restrictions remains to be seen, but it is likely that they will disproportionally affect economically marginalized women due to the additional financial burdens they will impose.

However, in a context of mass demonstrations, it is difficult to see how the legitimacy of current regulations can be restored, let alone new ones added. The movement of ‘women, life, freedom’ has demonstrated the unifying power and potential of women’s rights as lever for mobilization and demands for change. This has made the quest for such rights an essential part of any pathway towards fundamental change. Over forty years ago, women’s rights defenders failed to gain the support of political parties in their protests against the imposition of the compulsory hijab. Today’s Iranian women that are determined to change the social norms imposed by legislation dating back to 1979 enjoy far broader social support. Recent events show how they have become active agents in pursuit of their rights, and seek to drive change even in the absence of a political transformation.
CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M
Theft and Corruption Hinder Venezuela's Oil Industry

The key to reducing these criminal threats is ending the sanctions on Venezuela
/26 JUN 2023
BY VENEZUELA INVESTIGATIVE UNITE

Oil production in Venezuela has recently picked up after years of decline. But increasing criminal activity around the industry hinders the market’s potential recovery.

A series of attempted thefts from pipelines over the past several months has raised concerns at the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), which distributes gasoline and diesel throughout the country via these pipelines.

In May, PDVSA's vice president of trade and national supply, Juan Carlos Díaz, said that five of the country's 17 fuel distribution plants have been paralyzed because "gangs open holes in the pipelines and connect hoses to steal the gasoline." Pipeline theft increased noticeably in May and April, said Díaz, though he did not say by how much.

The most recent reported incident was the perforation of an oil pipeline in the state of Anzoátegui, in eastern Venezuela, on June 1.

SEE ALSO: Inside the Evaporating Black Market for Gasoline in Zulia, Venezuela

A lack of state investment, falling oil prices, and international sanctions have devastated Venezuela’s oil industry, once one of the strongest in the world. As the main driver of Venezuela’s economy, experts consider the recovery of the industry essential to improving the country’s economic crisis.

Below, InSight Crime examines how organized crime could affect the revival of the country's oil industry.

Proliferation of Fuel Theft

Fuel theft has become a significant problem for PDVSA over the last two years.

A 1,444-kilometer network of pipes moves fuel from refining plants to filling centers around Venezuela. Oil sanctions and the lack of investment in refineries have created a gasoline shortage, especially in states far from the capital, Caracas. Now, increasing fuel theft has exacerbated those shortages.

“Why is there no volume at the service stations? Because organized crime violated us,” said the governor of the southern state of Bolívar, Ángel Marcano, in a press conference at the end of April. “The fuel mafias violated the pipeline."

Criminal networks steal as much as 30% of the fuel destined for this southern region of the country, according to official information.

Bolívar is just one of several states affected by fuel theft. Between January 2021 and June 2023, InSight Crime recorded nine cases of arrests or dismantling of networks dedicated to illegally extracting gasoline in the states of Yaracuy, Carabobo, Lara, Zulia, and Mérida.

While authorities have indicated that there are various gangs dedicated to tapping pipelines, they have not provided any further information about the groups.
The Cancer of Corruption

“The biggest blow to the oil industry," according to former PDVSA director José Toro Hardy, "centers around corruption."

Corruption began in earnest when then-President Hugo Chávez nationalized of country’s oil production in the early 2000s. A lack of transparency around the oil industry was one of the aspects that characterized Chávez’s economic management, according to Andrés Rojas Jiménez, a Venezuelan journalist and editor of the oil and energy-focused publication Petroguía. The practice, he said, was continued by Chávez’s successor, current President Nicolás Maduro.

SEE ALSO: Despite Vast Oil Reserves, Venezuela Smuggling Gasoline From Colombia, Brazil

Due to the absence of reports, embezzlement went undetected for years. One of the first scandals uncovered involved Rafael Ramírez, a close contact of Chávez who was accused by the Venezuelan National Assembly in 2016 of embezzling some $11 billion while he served as oil minister and president of PDVSA between 2004 and 2014.

Ramírez fled the country. His successors, the former Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino and former PDVSA President Nelson Martínez, were both accused of corruption, among other charges, by the Venezuelan Attorney General in 2017. Martínez died in prison in 2018 while awaiting trial. Del Pino remains in pretrial detention.

In March 2023, another operation led to the arrest of civilians and soldiers who held management positions at PDVSA for participating in a corruption scheme. The event led to the resignation of Tareck El Aissami, former Oil Minister and one of the key political figures in the country.

According to the Venezuelan Attorney General's Office, these officials arranged shipments of oil to foreign businessmen who were then in charge of selling it. But upon payment, the PDVSA was shortchanged, with a significant portion diverted to the accounts of these officials.

While authorities have not specified the amount that PDVSA lost as a result of this scheme, unofficial estimates put the figure at around $21 billion.

Corrupt officials have allowed criminal gangs to dismantle PDVSA oil facilities and sell the stolen parts for scrap metal, further impeding the recovery of the industry, according to complaints from the Venezuelan Attorney General's Office.
Extortion Industry

Extortion is another issue. As a result of the pandemic and de facto dollarization, which has made the US dollar the desired currency, extortion has become one of the main criminal economies in Venezuela.

In February, a man was detained by officials from Venezuela's criminal investigative unit (Cuerpo de Investigaciones Científicas, Penales y Criminalísticas - CICPC) in the state of Anzoátegui for his alleged involvement in extorting companies subcontracted by PDVSA. A year earlier, the Attorney General's Office reported the dismantling of a gang that extorted oil companies in the same region.

These extortion cases hinder the recovery process for the Venezuelan oil industry if they scare off investments from international oil companies concerned about security.

The key to reducing these criminal threats, Jiménez told InSight Crime, is ending the sanctions on Venezuela, which would lead to an improvement in electricity infrastructure and staff remuneration, as well as greater security in the oil fields.

“Crime is a consequence of distortions in other areas,” Jiménez said. “As long as you have distortions in other areas, crime will inevitably have it too.”

Calgary is preparing for an even bigger flood than 2013

Connor O'Donovan

Video Journalist
Published on Jun. 26, 2023,



To help predict how such severe events might play out, the city of Calgary has developed a complex modelling system harnessing not only sophisticated weather forecasting but also urban geographic information and historic flood data.

There’s a lot motivating hydrologist Frank Frigo to help prepare Calgary for a 1,000-year flood.

If floodwaters were again to rise to dangerous levels on the Bow and Elbow rivers, perhaps 10 feet or more higher than they rose a decade ago, damage would likely exceed the estimated $6 billion cost of the 2013 floods.

More critical infrastructure, like water and communications lines, would be compromised, with river flows surging to rates never before recorded in modern times. In 2013, when floods reached "100-year" levels on the Bow and "200-year" levels on the Elbow, those rivers flowed as high as 12 times their regular rates. During a "1000-year event," (these terms are used both to describe the likelihood and intensity of a flood), the flow would be even greater.

More private and public property would certainly be lost, with the unimaginable power of water rushing as fast as six metres a second, reshaping the land and environment in more dramatic ways.

And, most significantly for Frigo and everyone who plans for emergencies in the city of Calgary, the danger to human safety would be even greater than the historic floods that took five lives in 2013.

"Average flows in the Bow and Elbow rivers are about two metres deep in the summer," Frigo says.

"When we have events of about one-in-20-year likelihood, that level goes up by about four metres. One-in-100 is about a metre, metre-and-a-half higher than that, so six could become 7.5 metres. A one-in-200 is another metre higher than that, then one-in-1000 gets up to another 2 metres higher above even that."

WATCH:

 Why Alberta's 2013 flooding was so intense

 Before Fort McMurray's wildfire, Alberta's costliest disaster was 2013 flooding

While a "1000-year" flood, with levels more than three metres higher than in 2013, may sound unlikely, there is a (very) small chance that it could happen every year. 

As mentioned, the hydrological term describes the likelihood of a flood of a certain level occurring in a certain place in any given year. A "100-year" flood, for example, has a one per cent chance of occurring in a given year.

So, while a "100-year," 500-year," or "1,000-year" event has an increasingly smaller likelihood of occurring, there is still a chance it could happen next year, the year after, or in any year during the coming decades.

That’s why Frigo and the city of Calgary are preparing for the worst now. 

"2013 is not the most severe flood on record. In both 1879 and 1897, there were large events on the Bow that we know from anecdotal evidence exceeded what we saw in 2013," says Frigo

"They were greater than that 100 to 200-year level. They clock in at between 350- and 500-year levels. Then, through paleohydrology work, we’ve been able to project all the way back to the 1500s, and we can see periods that were dryer and much wetter than anything we’ve seen recently."

In 2013, extreme rainfall totaled above 200 mm in areas around Calgary and as high as 325 mm in the hardest-hit areas in a matter of days. While a higher-than-average alpine snowpack and the region’s steeply descending, saturated watershed played a role, Frigo says the weather was the biggest culprit behind the devastating disaster.

That year, he says, a low-pressure system and a significant feed of moisture from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico became trapped over the Rockies thanks to a high pressure ridge to the north. The skies opened, and torrential rains hammered the large river basins west of Calgary for days.

Theoretically, a similar but more intense meteorological setup pouring rain over a larger part of the basins of the Bow and Elbow rivers, which are thousands of square kilometres in size, could result in an even bigger flood. 

To help predict how such severe events might play out, the city of Calgary has developed a complex modelling system harnessing not only sophisticated weather forecasting but also urban geographic information and historic flood data. It can be used to estimate the impacts of everything from a relatively common, or "one-in-two-year" flood, all the way up to a one-in-1000-year event.

Those models are being used to guide the city’s flood management strategy.


The downtown flood Barrier in Calgary. (Connor O'Donovan/The Weather Network)

For example, new flood barriers stretch along the rivers in many Calgary communities, including in areas hit hard in 2013, like downtown Calgary and the west Eau Claire neighbourhood.

Those barriers, Frigo says, were not only designed to ensure protection from a one-in-200-year flood event, but also included an extra half-metre of height. Further, he says, their foundations were built strong enough that they can be even further expanded if needed down the road.

To mitigate risk from the Elbow River, new gates have been installed at the Glenmore Dam in Calgary, which roughly doubles the Glenmore Resevoir’s storage capacity. Meanwhile, the Springbank Off-stream Reservoir is under construction and due to become operational in 2025 with a 70.2 million cubic metres capacity.

The new gates installed on the Glenmore Dam. (Connor O'Donovan/The Weather Network)

Working together, Frigo explains, those reservoirs should be able to manage an event as large as what was seen on the Elbow in 2013

But more capacity is needed, he says, especially along the Bow. That’s why Calgary and other communities are exploring creating new upstream reservoirs, or expanding existing ones to further mitigate risk.

"It’s quite clear that the amount of storage that exists upstream of Calgary on the Bow River isn’t adequate to address a very large flood," he says.

"Both for drought resilience and flood protection, the city of Calgary and many others are interested in working with the province to look at the construction of incremental storage, a new reservoir upstream on the Bow River."

Better river monitoring technology is in place as well, along with improved emergency response strategies. Riverbanks have been rehabilitated and protected against erosion. Stormwater and sanitary system improvements have been made.

According to city estimates, the overall damage potential that existed in 2013 has been reduced by 55 per cent. When the Springbank Off-stream Reservoir is completed west of the city in 2025, that protection level will increase to 70 per cent.

This marker along the Bow River shows flood levels reached in 2013. (Connor O'Donovan/The Weather Network

So, as Frigo has pointed out, there is more work to be done.

Theoretically, he says, the "probable maximum flood" for the region would result in river flows twice as high as they reached in 2013.

"That would be in excess of a 100,000-year flood in terms of the actual likelihood. And, while theoretical, there’s nothing stopping nature from creating those types of events. An event close to the probable maximum flood actually occurred in Vanguard, Saskatchewan, in 2003." (There, nearly 350 mm of rain fell in just over eight hours.)

And, while it is decreasing mountain snowpack levels, Frigo adds that climate change is still increasing flood risk, as well, with the potential for more severe floods in addition to droughts.

That, he says, is providing even more motivation for the city’s "Swiss cheese" model of flood defences.

"All of the climate change research suggests that both on the drought side and on the flood side, we will see more extreme events," he says. "What we are expecting is that over about the next 70 or 80 years, all of the flood likelihood estimates to increase by about 20 per cent."

(Learn more about the 2013 floods in This Day in Weather History, a podcast by The Weather Network)

Header image: View of Elbow River meander belt from Forgetmenot Ridge in Kananaskis Country showing the devastation caused by the June 2013 flooding in Southern Alberta. Credit: Joe Price/Submitted.

Dolphin moms use baby talk to call to their young, recordings show

You know instantly when someone is speaking to an infant or small child. It turns out that dolphin mothers also use a kind of high-pitched baby talk.

By Christina Larson 
The Associated Press
Monday, June 26, 2023

AP / Sarasota Dolphin Research Program
In this undated photo, bottlenose dolphins swim in open waters off Sarasota Bay, Florida. Photo taken under NMFS MMPA Permit No. 20455 issued to the Sarasota Dolphin Research Program. A new study has found that female bottlenose dolphins change how they vocalize when addressing their calves.


WASHINGTON (AP) — You know instantly when someone is speaking to an infant or small child. It turns out that dolphin mothers also use a kind of high-pitched baby talk.

A study published Monday found that female bottlenose dolphins change their tone when addressing their calves. Researchers recorded the signature whistles of 19 mother dolphins in Florida, when accompanied by their young offspring and when swimming alone or with other adults.

The dolphin signature whistle is a unique and important signal — akin to calling out their own name.

“They use these whistles to keep track of each other. They’re periodically saying, ‘I’m here, I’m here’,” said study co-author Laela Sayigh, a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution marine biologist in Massachusetts.

When directing the signal to their calves, the mother’s whistle pitch is higher and her pitch range is greater than usual, according to the study published in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“That was true for every one of the moms in the study, all 19 of them,“ said biologist Peter Tyack, a study co-author from the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

Obtaining this data was no simple feat. Over more than three decades, scientists placed special microphones multiple times on the same wild dolphin mothers in Florida’s Sarasota Bay to record their signature whistles. That included years when they had calves and when they didn’t — dolphin calves stay with their mothers for an average of three years in Sarasota, and sometimes longer. Fathers don’t play a prolonged role in parenting.

“This is unprecedented, absolutely fantastic data,” said Mauricio Cantor, an Oregon State University marine biologist who was not involved in the study. “This study is the result of so much research effort.”

Why people, dolphins or other creatures use baby talk isn’t certain, but scientists believe it may help offspring learn to pronounce novel sounds. Research dating back to the 1980s suggests that human infants may pay more attention to speech with a greater pitch range. Female rhesus monkeys may alter their calls to attract and hold offspring’s attention. And Zebra finches elevate their pitch and slow down their songs to address chicks, perhaps making it easier to learn birdsong.

For the dolphin study, the researchers focused solely on the signature call, so they don’t know if dolphins also use baby talk for other exchanges — or whether it helps their offspring learn to “talk” as it seems to do with humans.

“It would make sense if there are similar adaptations in bottlenose dolphins — a long lived, highly acoustic species,” where calves must learn to vocalize many sounds to communicate, said Frants Jensen, a behavioral ecologist at Denmark’s Aarhus University and a study co-author.

Another possible reason for using specific pitches is to catch the kids’ attention.

“It’s really important for a calf to know ‘Oh, Mom is talking to me now’ __ versus just announcing her presence to someone else,” added Janet Mann, a marine biologist at Georgetown University, who was not involved in the study.

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Follow Christina Larson on Twitter at: @larsonchristina


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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
From warriors to Vogue: 106-year-old tattoo artist preserving a endangered tradition

Monday 26 June 2023 
AT 106, Whang-Od is thought to be the oldest female tattoo artist in the world.
Credit: ITV News

Perched on a cliffside, high in the Cordillera mountains is Buscalan village. Only accessible by foot, it may have remained largely cut off from the rest of the world if not for one remarkable resident.

At 2016-years-old, Whang-Od is thought to be the oldest female tattoo artist in the world.

Taught by her father, she has been heralded as the last mambabatok - a traditional Kalinga tattooist - of her generation.

Using just a bamboo stick, a thorn from a pomelo tree, water and coal, her tattoos were earned for bravery by the Indigenous male Butbut warriors.

Whang-Od appeared on the cover of Vogue back in April, making her the oldest person to ever feature on the front cover of the magazine.
Credit: ITV News

In April, she became the oldest ever Vogue cover star, propelling her to international fame and prompting to people travelling from all over the world to get a tattoo from her.

While she is no longer able to complete the more intricate markings of her Kalinga tribe, people still come to her to receive the three dots, which represent Whang-Od and her two grandnieces, that have become her new signature.

An art that can only be passed down to blood relatives, Whang-Od has been training her grandnieces Elyang Wigan and Grace Palicas for years.

Whang-Od's grandnieces have been selected as the next generation of Kalinga tribe tattooists.
Credit: ITV News

The pair now take on the bigger, more intricate tattoos that Whang-Od's failing eyesight prevent her from doing.

All of the tattoos have traditional meanings, but these days they are mostly chosen for style preference and not significance.

Her own body could be described as a work of art, telling the story of her life, work and even some former romances
.
Whang-Od's own tattoos represents stories of her life, work, and even some former romances.
Credit: ITV News

This tattooing tradition was mostly lost as Filipinos were converted to Christianity during the Spanish colonial era but it survived in more remote areas of the Philippines.

Today, it is a highly endangered tradition. The hand-tapped tattoos were earned by indigenous warriors.

And for women, the tattoos were considered an aesthetic accessory and ritualistically important. These days, the performance of rituals is altogether left out of the tattoo session, although they can be done if requested, especially upon the completion of a large, multi-day tattoo.