Wednesday, October 02, 2024

Gold prices and poverty fuel illegal mining in Peru’s Amazon

Reuters | October 1, 2024 |

The area where the Nanay River (black) meets the Amazon River (brown). (Image by Leonora Enking, Flickr.)

The Nanay River meanders through Peru’s Amazon jungle supplying water to Iquitos city’s half a million inhabitants.

But there are growing concerns about the quality of this water as illegal gold mining, which uses the toxic metal mercury to extract gold, has surged in Peru’s Amazon region since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Villagers in the northern rainforest region of Loreto have become more dependent on illegal mining for their livelihood as the pandemic hit the economy and the illegal activity became more profitable. Gold prices have soared nearly 30% so far in 2024 and are on course for their biggest annual rise since 2010.

The problem is that illegal miners use the metal to extract gold particles from the river silt and then burn off the mercury, which turns to vapour and is absorbed by the surrounding plants, soil and river, said Claudia Vega, head of the mercury program at the Center for Amazonian Scientific Innovation.

Her team regularly tests communities and their main staple — river fish — for mercury.

“(Miners) take the gold but the mercury stays here in the Amazon,” Vega told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “What the miners don’t like to talk about is that mercury is a poison.”

Illegal mining has spread across Peru’s Amazon region and the Andes since the Covid-19 pandemic sent the economy into recession, fuelling unemployment and pushing millions of people back into poverty. About 29% of Peru’s population struggled with poverty in 2023, up from 20.2% in 2019, according to the country’s statistics institute.

At the same time, rising gold prices have made illegal mining attractive in a poor region. A dredger operating for 24 hours can rake in 100g or $8,000 worth of gold at $80 per single gram, said Herman Ruiz, an official at the National Forestry and Wildlife Service (SERFOR) and head of the Allpahuayo-Mishana National Reserve.

Park rangers and local community patrols have managed to keep mining out of the Allpahuayo-Mishana National Reserve in the lower part of the Nanay River, but satellite images sourced by NGO Amazon Conservación show dozens of dredgers higher up in the Alto Nanay-Pintuyacu-Chambira protected area.

Indeed, a 2023 report by the Monitoring of the Andean Amazon Project (MAAP) showed illegal mining was present in 11 of Loreto’s largest rivers that year, including Nanay, but the latter had three times the number of dredgers than all other rivers combined.

According to the report, satellite images detected 98 dredgers in the Nanay River in the middle of 2023, having spotted none at the beginning of 2020.
Remote areas

Ruiz said the illegal mining in Loreto is mainly led by criminal groups from Colombia who recruit locals and train them to build simple dredgers from a converted lorry engine and a wooden raft. Some Brazilians and Venezuelans working for criminal organizations are also involved, he said.

A Colombian gang believed to include dissident members of the now-demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels uses violence to enforce its rule in remote areas and dominates illegal gold and cocaine trafficking, according to a security official, who asked not be named because of the risk to his safety.

Carlos Castro, the chief environmental prosecutor for Loreto, said it is becoming increasingly difficult for authorities to curb illegal mining activity as it spreads to desolate areas.

He said it can take 12 hours to reach remote outposts by boat and it is even more difficult to reach them by air.

“There is no place to land… because of the curves of this (river) basin,” he said.

The fact that the miners now have access to the internet and can warn one another that the police is coming also makes curbing the illegal mining harder, said Ruiz. The miners installed satellite dishes in the area in recent years, he said.

Meanwhile, it has become increasingly risky to deal with the illegal miners.

Castro said the police and prosecutors are often outnumbered by “hostile villagers” when they reach those areas and that the police has advised prosecutors to take “a certain number of (security) people” when they travel to tackle illegal mining.

“We have been ambushed in the past,” he said.

Ruiz said he has even been a victim of indirect death threats.

“Someone would tell me to be careful; that I’m on the gang’s blacklist”, he said.
Finding poison

Vega took her team to Mishana — where around 80 people live on fishing, farming and community tourism — to take hair samples from residents to test for mercury levels. Mishana is located some 40 km southwest of Iquitos.

Betty Amasifuen, 42, is among those who volunteered to be tested even though she lives many miles downstream from the mining activity.

“For us, who live here in this part of the Nanay River and eat the fish, it’s not good,” said the mother of six.

In the local village hall, Vega told the local population about mercury’s devastating heath impact. She referred to the renowned case in Japan in the 1950s, when children in Minamata Bay were born with congenital deformities and neurological disabilities because of mercury contamination.

“We do not want to be the people or communities contaminated or getting some kind of disease,” said 63-year old Fidencio Zuta, a local resident.

The World Health Organisation classifies mercury as one of the 10 chemicals of major public concern.

Given illegal mining in Loreto is fairly recent, there are no comprehensive studies on its health impact on the local population yet. But on the other side of Peru’s Amazon, where mining has been taking place for decades, a study found the majority of adults were affected.

The comprehensive 2009 study from the Carnegie Amazon Mercury Ecosystem Project showed 78% of adults in Madre de Dios, Peru’s most heavily-mined Amazon region, had mercury levels in their hair above the WHO’s recommended concentration limit of 1ppm, one part per million.

Vega said children were particularly vulnerable.

“When they are exposed when their mother is pregnant, it can harm the way that they learn, they think, their memory,” she said. “It’s affecting how these kids could learn or be productive. So, you’re affecting the kid for their whole life.”

(By Dan Collyns; Editing by Jack Graham and Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

Video: Taiwan Air Service Pulls Off Daring Rescue of Seafarers in Typhoon

rescue off Taiwan — Crew was sucessfully hoisted from the stranded bulker as the typhoon approaches Taiwan (Taiwan Coast Guard)

Taiwan’s Air Service Corp was able to rescue 19 crewmembers from a bulker that was taking on water and driven on the rocks as a strong typhoon approached the island. The crew was lifted by helicopter and transferred to shore while Taiwan reported a possible oil leak from the vessel as it prepared for the typhoon to come ashore on Wednesday.

The bulker Blue Lagoon (79,474 dwt) was transporting 67,500 tons of ore from China to Singapore when the vessel called for assistance at 0428 local time on Tuesday, October 1. The ship was about 20 miles from Orchid Island near the southeastern tip of Taiwan when it encountered the onset of Typhoon Krathon. According to the authorities, winds were at Level 11, and seas were over 20 feet.

The vessel had a crew of 19 aboard, including seven from Ukraine, nine from Egypt, and three from Russia, when it reported that it was taking on water in its engine room. Approximately an hour after the first call, the captain told the authorities in Taiwan that they were preparing to abandon ship. Built in 2010, the vessel is registered in Panama. According to the Equasis database it was sold at the beginning of this month and is now being managed from Latvia.

A Taiwanese Coast Guard vessel from Kaohsiung was attempting to reach the vessel. The Air Service was able to get a helicopter to the vessel shortly after 0600 but reported the winds were too strong to start a hoist operation and it was returning to base. However, there was a break in the winds, and between 1100 and 1400, the crew was successfully airlifted. The crew of the coast guard vessel risked going on deck and assisted in the hoist and transfer of the crew.

The vessel was driven ashore and the authorities were monitoring it. They reported possibly sighting of oil in the water. The vessel is carrying 39 tons of MGO (Marine Gas Oil) and 227 tons of VLSFO (fuel oil). Pictures show the waves crashing over the vessel on the coastline while the authorities emphasized the typhoon is not expected to make landfall in Taiwan until Wednesday. It currently has sustained winds of over 120 mph and gusts over 150 mph raising widespread concern for the impact on the island.

In July, multiple vessels were driven ashore in another typhoon. The authorities are reporting that they are in the process of dismantling one ship (Keta) and that two others (Dolphin and Sophia) remain on the shore. They were taking precautions to prevent further pollution from these vessels as the typhoon hits Taiwan.

New Jersey’s First Offshore Wind Farm Gets Final Approvals from BOEM

The Atlantic Shores South project, which would consist of two large offshore wind farms, received its final approval from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. It is a critical step for a state that says it is dedicated to making clean energy a priority but which continues to suffer setbacks in its ambitions.

The project is a 50/50 partnership between Shell New Energies US and EDF-RE Offshore Development and will become New Jersey’s first offshore wind energy site. BOEM approved the construction and operation plan for the development which calls for up to 2.8 GW of power between two equally sized projects. They highlight it could power up to one million homes.

Called Atlantic Shores 1 and 2, it will be located at its closest point at nearly nine miles from the Jersey coast but the company has previously said construction will be at least 12.8 miles from shore. It will be in a region between Atlantic City, Sea Girt, and Long Beach Island in southern New Jersey. The plan calls for up to 197 wind turbines as well as the necessary substations and other equipment.

“Securing these critical approvals enables New Jersey’s first offshore wind project to start construction next year and represents meaningful progress in New Jersey achieving 100 percent clean energy by 2035,” said Joris Veldhoven, Chief Executive Officer, Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind. He said the first phase Atlantic Shores 1 would start moving forward and that the second phase would build on the first-mover success to drive the state over the next decade.

The project is moving forward despite significant local opposition. Various groups have fought to prevent the development of the project.

For New Jersey, it represents a restart after Ørsted canceled its two large projects in 2023 which were expected to be the first in the state. New Jersey has other projects in the development pipeline but they too have encountered difficulties.

Last week, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities granted Leading Light Wind a pause on its project through December 20. The project is in the licensing phase after having been selected by the state but the developer which is a partnership between two American companies, Invenergy and energyRe, reporting it is having problems securing a supplier agreement for its turbines. The plan calls for it to be located over 40 miles off the coast, generating 2.4 GW of energy. Construction was projected to begin by 2028 and be in operation by 2031.

New Jersey also ran a solicitation over the summer but reported it only received three proposals in July. That included Atlantic Shores, which was seeking to reset a prior price agreement as well as Attentive Energy which was the other developer selected in January alongside Leading Light. They are proposing a second phase while Community Wind also resubmitted a reworked proposal for a project that was previously passed over in the selection process. The state said it would announce its steps forward by December.

Ørsted Has New U.S. Wind Partner as Eversource Exits and GIP Enters

Institutional investors continue to show interest in the developing offshore energy sector demonstrated by the closing of a deal that rearranges the partnership for Ørsted in its U.S. offshore wind energy projects. Global Infrastructure Partners, which was acquired by famed group BlackRock, completed the previously announced deal to buy Eversource Energy’s 50 percent interest in two wind farms with Ørsted.

Eversource had previously announced its intent to exit the offshore wind sector to focus on operations as a pure-play regulated pipes and wires utility. They agreed earlier this year to sell their share of the planned Sunrise Wind project to Ørsted and yesterday completed the sale of its shares in South Fork Wind and Revolution Wind to Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). While Eversource has exited its offshore wind investments, the company remains a contractor on the ongoing onshore construction scope for Revolution Wind, and a tax equity investor in South Fork Wind.

The final price for the 50 percent shares of the two U.S. offshore wind farms was $745 million, which was reduced by approximately $375 million from the original value of $1.12 billion on the deal. Eversource cited increased construction costs and delays for Revolution Wind. With a $370 million gain on the separate sale of Sunrise Wind, Eversource still expects to record a loss of $520 million for the divestiture of its offshore wind interests.

GIP, however, cites the strong opportunities in renewable energy. Today, October 1, BlackRock completed the acquisition of GIP with the two companies also emphasizing their positioning as an industry leader in infrastructure and strong position in renewable energy.

A new joint venture partnership will be launched between Ørsted and Skyborn Renewables, a GIP portfolio company, for the two offshore wind projects. The companies emphasized that this reaffirms the opportunity in American clean energy.

In partnership with GIP, Ørsted will continue its operations of the 132-megawatt South Fork Wind farm, and finalize construction of the 704-megawatt Revolution Wind project and transition it into its operational phase. South Fork Wind went into operation in March 2024 as America’s first utility-scale offshore wind farm supplying power to New York. Construction is underway on Revolution Wind, which will serve Rhode Island and Connecticut, and in September it marked the installation of its first wind turbine offshore.

Ørsted previously acquired Eversource’s 50-percent stake in the 924-megawatt New York Sunrise Wind project, share of uncontracted offshore wind seabed (Lease 500), and key Northeast operational assets.

As part of a growing Northeast hub, Ørsted also has full ownership of partnerships with the Port of Providence, the Port of Davisville, and Quonset Point, all in Rhode Island, and with Connecticut's New London State Pier. Ørsted also acquired ownership of the future operations and maintenance hub in East Setauket, N.Y., and the charter agreement for the first American-built offshore wind service operations vessel Eco Edison.

Institutional investors are showing increasing interest in the offshore energy sector as it begins to mature and promises consistent returns. Energy companies such as Eversource however which were early investors in the sector have retreated as the problems emerged that drove up costs and delayed the offshore projects.

FLOATING BOMB

UK is Latest to Track Movement of Cargo Ship Laden with Ammonium Nitrate

bulker at anchor — Ruby is anchored off the English coast drawing new scrutiny (file photo)

The Malta-registered cargo ship Ruby continues to attract worldwide attention with the UK maritime authorities being the latest to be observing the ship’s movements. Laden with 20,000 tons of ammonium nitrate which was reportedly destined for the Canary Islands as fertilizer the hazardous nature of the cargo has created international attention aboard the vessel which was damaged in an Arctic storm.

After being turned away from ports in Norway, Lithuania, and Sweden and placed under restrictions for its movements by the Danish authorities, Ruby instead started south declaring its destination as Malta. Managed by a company from the UAE, the vessel is registered in Malta and the local authorities as the vessel’s port state have been involved in the efforts to find it a port of refuge.

The ship reached the northeastern end of the English Channel and anchored between the Netherlands and the UK and then positioned off the coast of Kent, England. It created widespread media coverage and speculation over its movements. This is despite assurances from the authorities in Norway, Sweden, and elsewhere that the cargo is safely loaded and that there is minimal danger of an explosion.

With the vessel laying about 14 miles off Kent, HM Coastguard found itself having to respond to media speculation. It confirmed that it is aware of the vessel reporting in its statement that it is "currently securely anchored outside UK territorial waters." They said they are in “regular contact,” with the ship.

A spokesperson told Express.co.uk that Ruby was "waiting for appropriate conditions to refuel at sea before passing through the English Channel." They however clarified that the vessel was not restricted and did not require any form of permission to proceed. However, the flag state and DNV as its class, are reported to have agreed that the ship because of a crack in the hull and damage to the propeller and rudder, should be accompanied by a tug while underway. Her escort, Amber II, an anchor handler also registered in Malta, docked in the Netherlands possibly taking the time while Ruby is at anchor for her own replenishment or relief for the crew.

The outcome of the situation remains unclear. Maltese authorities have also told the local media that they would not accept the ship into port unless it unloads its cargo first. Lithuania placed the same restrictions when it was announced the vessel would be going to Western Shipyard for repairs.

The latest speculation is that the managers are looking for smaller vessels so they could transfer the cargo for storage.

Ocean Plastic Cleanups May Do More Harm Than Good

Critics say removing ocean plastic can be expensive, harmful to animals and detract from efforts to stop waste at source

File image courtesy Maersk / Ocean Cleanup

[By Emma Bryce]

When fishers in China’s Zhejiang province return home each day, they haul ashore more than fish. Over the past four years, 11,000 fishers have together unloaded over 2,800 metric tonnes of plastic, mainly fishing nets.

They are paid around 1 USD per kilogram by Chinese environmental initiative Blue Circle for this, along with a share of the profit from the sale of recycled plastic pellets to manufacturers who make new goods out of the processed waste.

The fishers “all know that they are contributing to environmental protection and making the ocean cleaner”, says Xianhua Mao, a technical expert with the organisation.

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has recognised Blue Circle for its achievements. It is part of a growing group of organisations and companies worldwide that have responded to the environmental threat of plastic with projects to sift out, slurp up, net, and otherwise trap tonnes of waste from beaches, rivers and oceans.

Rebecca Helm, marine ecologist, Georgetown University

But as plastic-fishing projects attract public attention and millions in funding, some experts are sceptical. They fear some schemes can do unintended harm and may even stall efforts to reduce plastic waste in the first place.

The toll of drones, bots, and nets

One thing is clear: plastic is an environmental threat of epic proportions. An estimated 1.7 million tonnes enters the ocean each year, where it entangles, starves, and kills millions of animals; smothers coral reefs; and breaks down into micro- and nano-sized particles that enter the food chain.

But “plastic pollutes habitats, ecosystems, places where animals already live”, says Rebecca Helm, a marine ecologist at Georgetown University. “So taking plastic out using something like big nets is going to take life out with it.”

In a 2023 paper, Helm joined a group of concerned researchers who cautioned against what they called “the fallacy of plastic cleanup technology”.

Drones and robots designed to skim plastic off water surfaces risk pulling in creatures, they say. Other devices have been shown to capture significant amounts of sea life along with plastic.

The technology keeps advancing. Small, industrious robots are now proliferating across beaches worldwide, constantly sieving out plastic.

When conducting research for the study, Melanie Bergmann, the paper’s lead author, was alarmed by examples of such sand-sieving robots. “What kind of ecosystem will be there after that?” asks Bergmann, a marine ecologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. “It’s a habitat; it’s full of organisms that live there, and if you destroy it all the time, that’s not very beneficial either.”

Garbage patch or ecosystem?

The so-called Great Pacific Garbage Patch is home to the most widely publicized plastic-fishing projects. Here, Netherlands-based outfit The Ocean Cleanup has a huge net-fringed boom that uses ocean currents to herd in plastic from the surface of this gyre in the North Pacific. It has also deployed dozens of plastic-catching booms in rivers worldwide and describes its efforts as “the largest cleanup in history”.

But the gyre is home to an array of surface-dwelling organisms that can be swept up with the plastic, including sea dragons, by-the-wind sailors, and snails. Running a cleanup operation through it could significantly disrupt the ecosystem and trap marine animals, scientists including Helm have warned. “It’s an extremely rich habitat in the North Pacific, so much so that I don’t even like calling it the Garbage Patch,” says Helm. “It is an ecosystem.”

The Ocean Cleanup’s own environmental impact assessment states that almost 700 kg of fish, including sharks, molluscs and turtles, were ensnared in one of its systems over the course of 12 cleanup trips.

Though this is “less than a percent of the total amount of plastic catch”, it raised concerns because “we are here to protect marine life, not kill it”, says Matthias Egger, head of environmental and social affairs at The Ocean Cleanup. He adds that the organization submits to regular independent environmental impact assessments and that its systems have been designed to allow turtles to escape. It has made changes both to the design and use of its system over the years to try and reduce the impact on marine life.

An upstream battle

Cleanups face mind-boggling quantities of waste. By 2040, global plastic production could increase by 66% on 2019 levels. With landfills under increasing strain, researchers estimate it could nearly triple the amount of plastic entering the ocean by the same year.

The Ocean Cleanup estimates that since its operation started, it has removed 0.5% of the plastic from the North Pacific gyre, or just over 450 tonnes. In April, the organization announced it had cleaned up 10,000 tonnes worldwide since it started collecting in 2019. Estimates of plastic ending up in the ocean every year range from 1 to 2.4 million tonnes.

“The efficiency of the whole thing is very, very limited,” says Ewoud Lauwerier, a plastic policy expert at the nonprofit Ocean Care.

The Ocean Cleanup’s core goal is to remove 90% of floating plastic from the global ocean by 2040. Egger says the organization’s data shows this is achievable if it deploys dozens more cleanup devices in rivers and the ocean. The organisation believes humanity needs to reduce plastic production to stem the flow of marine waste, but that this could take years, Egger says.

There are also questions over what becomes of the plastic that cleanup efforts retrieve. Some groups claim to recycle ocean plastic into new goods, but a glut of cheap new virgin plastic has shrunk the market for recycled materials, and ocean plastic is often low quality. This raises the question of how much of the retrieved plastic will end up in landfills or incinerators.

The cost of cleaning up

The stakes have been raised by work towards creating an international treaty to end plastic pollution, which nations have pledged to finalize by the end of 2024. The treaty could establish a global cap on the amount of plastic produced. But there also exists increasing political and financial interest in downstream measures, including cleanup.

The Innovation Alliance for a Global Plastics Treaty brings together dozens of companies and nonprofits that are developing ways to tackle plastic pollution, and is spearheaded by The Ocean Cleanup. It has already requested that the treaty include mechanisms to finance innovators in all areas of plastic to the tune of $30 billion a year.

It would cost The Ocean Cleanup more than $10 billion each year to collect 90% of the plastic that enters the ocean annually, according to a report published by the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) and Ocean Care. This figure doesn’t include plastic already in the ocean.

Millions of dollars have already been channeled towards cleanup projects via donations from major users of plastics, petrochemical producers of plastic, and an industry-funded organization called the Alliance to End Plastic Waste.

“The amount of money that it might cost us to manage all the waste we’re potentially going to produce in the future … it’s almost unfathomable,” says Jacob Kean-Hammerson, a campaigner for the EIA’s ocean program. "If the focus remains on plastic retrieval, “we’d be stuck in a situation of perpetual cleanup."

To clean or not to clean?

Despite the uncertainties, even skeptics believe cleanups are needed in some circumstances. Experts agree there is a clear case to intervene in locations like trash-choked rivers, or the coastlines of small island states that receive tonnes of tidal waste.

Jannike Falk-Andersson, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Water Research, says that where cleanup is needed, it should be regulated. Projects could also be required to report what happens to the retrieved plastic, she says. China’s Blue Circle, for instance, uses blockchain technology to trace plastic, which is how they know that over 40% of plastic that fishers deliver to them has been recycled.

Ocean cleanup need not cost billions, as several experts Dialogue Earth spoke with noted. They mentioned the Ocean Voyages Institute as a cost-effective example. Its volunteer sailors use hooks and poles in the North Pacific Gyre to retrieve “ghost gear”, or discarded fishing equipment. This low-tech method limits bycatch and has collected 362 metric tonnes of plastic from the North Pacific.

Ultimately, prevention, by limiting plastic production and stopping plastic waste from entering the sea, is the best long-term action we can take to realize a largely plastic-free ocean.

In the meantime, Falk-Andersson says there is one thing everyone can do to play a part: “The best way of doing cleanups is by hand. Don’t walk past the next piece of plastic: pick it up.”

Emma Bryce is a freelance journalist who covers stories focused on the environment, conservation and climate change.

This article appears courtesy of Dialogue Earth and may be found in its original form here.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

Sinking Chinese Sub Shows the New, Speedy Nature of Naval Intelligence

[By Sam Roggeveen]

Earlier this year, the eagle-eyed American observer of China's military, Tom Shugart, spotted some unusual activity at a Chinese shipyard. Tom is a former US Navy submariner who these days spends a lot of time examining satellite photos and then piecing these together with other bits of evidence appearing on the internet to form sharp judgments about the rapid modernisation of China's military. You can get a sense of Shugart's work through this paper he wrote for the Lowy Institute in 2021.

In this case, the satellite photos appeared to show a number of crane barges clustered around a submarine that was docked at Wuchang Shipyard, where China is known to build diesel-electric submarines and surface ships for its navy.

The incident occurred in May. The reason to mention it now is that The Wall Street Journal has just run a story with quotes from anonymous US government sources claiming that the submarine in question sank while pier-side. The activity spotted by Shugart therefore may have been a salvage operation.

There are some unusual elements to this story, the main one being that the submarine in question is a previously unheard of new design called the Type 041, which according to the US government source is nuclear-powered. Yet the Wuchang Shipyard isn't known for producing nuclear-powered submarines. Also, can a submarine even sink in what are apparently very shallow waters? The Journal story says "American officials haven’t detected any indication that Chinese officials have sampled the water or nearby environment for radiation."

Observers are already speculating about what this means for China's effort to modernise its submarine fleet, with this article playing down the broader significance. India's Observer Research Foundation recently published an analysis of a new shipyard in China that will pump out new designs at a more rapid pace than the United States can match. We might see this incident as evidence that China's military is suffering under the weight of corruption. Then again, submarine accidents are not unheard of, even in the most competent military forces.

It's also worth considering the motives behind the US government's decision to release this information to The Wall Street Journal. Who gains? Certainly, it creates embarrassment for China, but it may also be that, in this case, the United States has adopted a "use it or lose it" approach to its intelligence. As Interpreter contributor Ben Scott argued in March:

...the age-old trade-off between preserving and using intelligence is shifting in favour of use...The United States and United Kingdom...sought to operationalise intelligence in the lead-up to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, declassifying and disseminating material with extraordinary speed and breadth.

The shift in favour of operationalising intelligence is driven by both intensifying geopolitical competition and the rapidly evolving information environment. The digital revolution is disrupting “business as usual”, including by breaking down Cold War categories of “secret” and “open-source” information. Secrets have a reduced shelf life.

Because open source intelligence is now so ubiquitous (including satellite imagery of a standard that was once the sole province of intelligence agencies), governments are erring further on the side of disclosure to maximise the political impact of their secrets.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Chinese netizens are claiming the entire story is bogus. That may yet turn out to be true, but this would be a high-risk strategy on America’s part. The “operationalising” of intelligence only works if the media organisations you are leaking to actually believe you. The declassification of Russia’s invasion preparations was a success for the US because it turned out to be accurate, so the US would seem to have good reason to avoid releasing information that can be easily falsified.

Sam Roggeveen is Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace, published by La Trobe University Press in 2023.

Before joining the Lowy Institute, Sam was a senior strategic analyst in Australia’s peak intelligence agency, the Office of National Assessments, where his work dealt mainly with North Asian strategic affairs, including nuclear strategy and Asian military forces.

This article appears courtesy of The Lowy Interpreter and may be found in its original form here.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

Mary Lou McDonald exclusive – “Transforming British-Irish Relations & Future Constitutional Change”

23rd September 2024Leave a Comment

“In government, we will make the reunification of Ireland & its people a key priority.”

Mary Lou McDonald TD – Sinn Féin Leader spoke at a packed event at #Lab24 on Sunday, and gave this keynote address

Friends,

I am delighted to be with you all today at this Sinn Féin event at the British Labour Party Conference. I am also very proud to be here in Liverpool, a city with deep Irish roots. It is estimated that 75% of Liverpool’s population have some Irish ancestry, perhaps none more iconic than the Beatles.

But Liverpool was also the birthplace of Big Jim Larkin – Irish republican, socialist and trade union leader, who led the workers of the Irish Transport and General Workers Union in the Great Lockout of 1913. He went on to establish the Irish Citizens Army along with James Connolly who said of him “we have amongst us a man of genius, of splendid vitality, great in his conceptions, magnificent in his courage.”

His actions and activism changed the course of Irish history and we see that change continuing to unfold on our island to this every day.

Earlier this year Michelle O’Neill made history when she was elected First Minister of the Northern Executive, the first nationalist to every hold this post, in a place designed to ensure that this could never happen.

The political landscape was to change once again in July when Sinn Féin emerged as the largest party in the Westminster elections, confirming the change underway in Ireland.

At a time of such change, it is both timely and necessary to step up the conversation about the future of Ireland, about how we confidently manage constitutional change, and build the momentum for the achievement of Irish Unity in our time.

This is an important moment in advancing this journey. Ireland’s future will be determined by choices made today, by decisions of this generation.

The future will be defined by how we rise to the challenges and how we seize the opportunities.

We must demonstrate the determination and the ambition to bend the arc of history towards reunification, ending partition.

A new and united Ireland.

As we navigate the future together, we must reaffirm our commitments—to the agreements and structures that have brought us this far, and to the spirit of cooperation, trust, and dialogue that underpins them.

This means moving beyond the restoration of the political institutions and delivering the public services, growing the economy, creating good jobs, and building resilience to ensure the delivery of good government for all communities. The Executive is hamstrung by British Government austerity with limited revenue raising and fiscal powers. This must change.

It means achieving not a mere “reset” but a transformation of British-Irish relations. And, crucially, it means having a mature, confident and pragmatic approach to managing constitutional change between Dublin and London. As part of this there is an obligation on the British and Irish governments to deepen the conversation, to acknowledge that change is in motion to accept that working together to accommodate that change is the way forward.

The political institutions; beyond restoration:

Twenty-six years ago, a generation of courageous peacemakers came together and achieved what many thought impossible – The Good Friday Agreement – a peaceful and democratic alternative to conflict and an opportunity to design a better future for everyone in the North, across Ireland and between these islands. And of course, the British Labour Party was a key architect of that Agreement.

From our vantage point of over a quarter of a century of peace, we can say that The Good Friday Agreement transformed both of our countries. The triumph of the agreement is that an entire generation – “The Good Friday Agreement Generation” has grown-up and come of age in a time free of conflict. The Ireland of 2024 is a very different place. The Britain of 2024 is a very different place.

At the heart of the Agreement lie the north’s democratic political institutions. The institutions are an instrument of peace, the bedrock for power sharing, parity of esteem and allow parties with different views and competing political aims to work together, collaboratively with each other for the good of the people for the betterment of society as a whole.

The suspension of the institutions in recent years created a damaging political vacuum, denied people the government to which they are entitled, and had real consequences in the daily lives of workers and families.

This was particularly the case when it came to responding to the cost-of-living and resisting Tory austerity and their crude assault on public services.

The restoration of the political institutions this year was both a political necessity and a moral obligation, to ensure people had the representation they deserve and a government that serves their needs.

Restoration represented a desire by political parties to move past division and disruption, and reach again with hope for partnership, power sharing and delivery.

We have seen over the last few months what is happening when parties work together and focus on the issues that really matter to ordinary people, to attract investment and create jobs, and put opportunity and prosperity at the heart of a shared agenda.

The new four-party Executive is working well.

The draft Programme for Government has been agreed in an atmosphere of partnership, setting key priorities for delivering for citizens.

We should also recognise the significant impact of the positive relationship between First Minister Michelle O’Neill and deputy-First Minister Emma Little Pengelly.

The women who lead the Executive have truly embraced the spirit of a ‘government for all’.

This shows in the leadership they provide every day.

The people are responding. Communities are embracing their shared positivity and we wish them well as continue to build a better future.

History tells us that it’s at times when things are working well that we should strive to make them even better.

Restoration of the institutions can only be the beginning, a starting point from which to advance.

There is an obligation on all those in leadership to ensure that the story of the political institutions moves beyond the frustrating cycle of suspension and restoration.

We must work to ensure that the democratic foundations of institutions are strengthened, the institutions are robust and hardwired with the necessary resilience to withstand the pressures of what is a changing political environment.

There is no contradiction between working for Irish reunification and working to ensure that the political institutions are equipped to deliver good government for people in the here and now.

The best way to safeguard the political institutions is for all those in leadership to work every day to renew the spirit of April 1998, to reach out to others, to build-trust and to acknowledge that the future must be about inclusion and equality.

Our responsibility is not only to stabilise politics and society today, but to create a better, prosperous and peaceful future for the generations to come.

Transforming British-Irish relations

The relationship between Ireland and Britain is a complex one.

A relationship shaped by colonisation, oppression, occupation, conflict.

Thankfully now changed by a transformative peace that once seemed unimaginable.

A relationship where emigration and the search for work formed connections between people over generations tying together real bonds of friendship and family.

The achievement of the Good Friday Agreement was a watershed in our political relationship. Driven by a shared hope for a peaceful future, the agreement forged a new dynamic and a partnership anchored by respect and cooperation.

The immediate post Good Friday Agreement era was not without its challenges, times when our relationship required dialogue, diplomacy and leadership. Challenges that we navigated in a spirit of partnership, even at times of intense disagreement.

Then came Brexit.

It’s reasonable to say that the post-Brexit realities have frayed the relationship, fuelled in the most part by Tory game-playing, undermining of the agreements and general belligerence towards the safeguarding of Irish interests.

It’s clear that the relationship between our countries requires recalibration – one that puts respect back at the heart of every engagement.

This doesn’t mean starting over.

It means renewing trust and open communication.

It means prioritising collaboration and ensuring that a healthy partnership thrives – whether it’s about trade, cultural exchange, or political cooperation.

It means refocusing all that is good about our relationship, meeting current challenges with optimism, and reaffirming our commitment to shared goals.

Both the British and Irish governments have a responsibility to work together for the good of the people as co-guarantors of peace, reconciliation and the realisation of a new future.

It is by working in the spirit of friendship that we will together write a new and successful chapter in British-Irish relations.

A mature conversation on constitutional change

Part of this new chapter must be the realisation that constitutional change in Ireland is coming.

I am very aware that this is the subject of genuine conviction and opinions right across Irish society. It also stirs deep emotions for people.

We need a mature and respectful conversation about constitutional change. It’s a conversation that should be approached with optimism, ambition and a real sense of opportunity.

The conversation must be inclusive. It must recognise that people hold different and competing views about the future.

I am the leader of Sinn Féin. I am an Irish republican. I see a United Ireland as the very best, most exciting prospect for the future, for nationalists, unionists and everyone else on our small island.

The reunification of Ireland presents the single greatest opportunity to unlock the potential of our island, to deliver prosperity for all.

We are living in a time when history will be made by the people. That is why referendums on Irish unity should be held by the end of this decade to allow the people to have their say.

The moment will come to name the date but first the British government must make clear its intention to trigger referendum as per the Good Friday Agreement and set out the threshold for the referendum as they see it. No more dodging. Clear honest conversations.

Our countries are each other’s nearest neighbourhoods, and good neighbours always want what is best for each other.

What is best for Ireland is that Britain ends its involvement in our affairs, and that the people of Ireland finally get to decide our future together.

I believe that is what is best for Britain too.

In this democratic conversation, I see every single person who argues for the preservation of the Union with Britain and their British identity as an equal, no caveats or exceptions. Equal.

The New Ireland we seek to build belongs every bit as much to the families of the Shankill as it does to the families of the Falls. Every bit as much to the families of Fermanagh as the families of Dublin, Cork and Galway.

Whether you argue for Irish reunification or for the preservation of the union, the nature and quality of the conversation matters.

We must listen to each other, engage with the facts, and resist the urge to be driven by fear or misinformation as witnesses during Brexit.

Let us commit to a conversation that is thoughtful, measured, and above all, respectful.

This dialogue must transcend party politics and focus on what is best for all citizens. We must create spaces where all voices are heard and where no perspective is dismissed out of hand.

Ultimately, it is the people who will decide their future as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement. But it is our responsibility to ensure that this decision is made through an informed and respectful process between both the new Labour Government and the next Irish Government.

If Sinn Féin is given the chance to lead the next government, we will advance this conversation.

In government, we will make the reunification of Ireland and its people a key priority.

We will take the following practical steps:

Establish a Reunification and One Ireland unit within the Department of An Taoiseach.
Appoint a Minister of State for reunification and One Ireland.
Produce a Government ‘Green Paper’ in the first 100 days setting out our vision for a New Ireland.
Establish a joint Oireachtas Committee on reunification and future constitutional change.
Begin the necessary planning and preparation by establishing a Citizens’ Assembly on our constitutional future.
We will give MPs from the North of Ireland speaking rights in the Oireachtas.
And we will commence planning and actively work towards the holding of referendums on Irish Unity by the end of this decade.

Conclusion

Friends.

The future is defined by the decisions we make today.

Nobody said that building a better tomorrow would be easy or straight forward.

The world, life and politics do not work like that.

But we must walk the road together. We hold the compass and the map.

Remember, the Irish nation is a collection of generations walking their length of the same journey.

On this length of the journey, we seek to advance the political institutions in the north, to achieve a positive reset of British-Irish relations, to have a mature and respectful, inclusive conversation about the future.

Generational change is happening in Ireland, and what we do now is what counts.

A new and united Ireland and is about everyone.

A new and united Ireland is for everyone.

Talking is the key that unlocks the future for all of us.

So let’s have the conversation. Let’s have the debate.

Let’s embrace tomorrow with open hearts. There’s so much to gain.

Go raibh míle maith agaibh.

Thank you.

Follow Mary Lou McDonald on X, Instagram and Facebook.
If you support Labour Outlook’s work amplifying the voices of left movements and struggles here and internationally, please consider becoming a supporter on Patreon.

Tory Kemi Badenoch says UK minimum wage is harming businesses

Basit Mahmood

Yesterday

Left Foot Forward

Badenoch is out of touch...

Tory leadership contender Kemi Badenoch has once again raised eyebrows with controversial remarks, this time claiming that the ‘minimum wage’ is harming businesses.

Badenoch, who hit the headlines only a few days ago for claiming that ‘maternity pay is excessive’, even though the UK has one of the lowest rates of maternity pay in the OECD, has also said that the minimum wage is also ‘overburdening businesses’ and causing some companies to close.

She made the comments during an hour-long question session on the main stage at the party’s conference in Birmingham.

The Financial Times reports Badenoch as saying: “There’s a café in my constituency that closed down, and the lady who owned it said, ‘I can’t afford to pay the wages any more. I can’t afford minimum wage. I can’t afford for my staff to go on [paid] maternity [leave]’.”

Badenoch continued: “We are overburdening businesses. We are overburdening them with regulation, with tax. People aren’t starting businesses any more because they’re too scared.”

Many will of course remember that the Tories made the same arguments when the last Labour government introduced the minimum wage, claiming incorrectly that it would lead to fewer jobs. Instead the minimum wage proved highly successful.

The Resolution Foundation found that ‘the introduction of the minimum wage 25 years ago is the single most successful economic policy in a generation, boosting the wages of millions of Britain’s lowest earners by up to £6,000 a year.’

Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment