Design and imagination as essential tools during the climate crisis

In Nature Partner Journals, ten researchers advocate the use of imagination in tackling the climate crisis

Delft University of Technology

 

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Professor Chris Zevenbergen: "Create a vision for people to believe in and work towards."

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Credit: Credits: LOLA Landscape Architects and De Urbanisten, in collaboration with the TU Delft group Redesigning Deltas

In Nature Partner Journals, ten researchers advocate the use of imagination in tackling the climate crisis. They focus specifically on urbanising river deltas, which are of great social and economic importance and highly vulnerable to climate change. "We scientists should not merely outline doomsday scenarios," says Professor Chris Zevenbergen. "Create a vision for people to believe in and work towards.”

From doomscenarios to desired outcomes
Due to the climate crisis, urban river deltas are facing hazards such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and soil subsidence. Prosperous regions like the Netherlands are facing increasing costs and complexity for improving systems. Deltas in low- and middle-income countries additionally struggle with rapid urbanisation and limited resources. Traditional models are often insufficient to prepare deltas for our unpredictable future, necessitating more flexible approaches.

"Fortunately, the scientific community is already showing a greater focus on optimism and visions of the future, which helps to inspire and motivate people." According to Chris and his co-authors, scientists should more often use imagination and ‘design-based research’. "Ask the wider society: what do we want our country to look like in 100 years? What do we really care about? And then visualise possible futures." In this way, we encourage civic engagement and make climate adaptation both tangible and motivating.

"Ask the wider society: what do we want our country to look like in 100 years? What do we really care about?"

Inspiration from the Netherlands
Netherlands can serve as a role model for deltas worldwide, according to the authors. ‘’Take for instance Johan van Veen, visionary designer of the Delta Works," says Chris. "Johan was not thinking in years, but in generations. He had deep knowledge of natural processes such as sedimentation. And when the 1953 North Sea Flood struck, he had an appealing vision of the future ready at hand." Or consider the recent Room for the River programme, which applies natural solutions to increase the capacity of rivers while simultaneously improving biodiversity.

These words of praise must come with a caveat. Chris: “Many Dutch people considered the Delta Works a permanent solution, but according to Johan they were always meant as a necessary step in a process. Today, we need a new long-term vision.” Fortunately, work is underway on new visions for our coastal areas, including three scenarios for 2100. “Do we want to preserve our current coasts, flexibly adapt to change, or give way completely to the rising sea? This is how we use the power of design and imagination!”

"Johan van Veen did not think in years, but in generations; he had deep knowledge of natural processes; and he had an appealing vision for the future."

Measures for science, policy, and education
The authors offer clear advice to scientists, policymakers, and universities: strengthen the role of design in delta management. Scientists should integrate imagination and interdisciplinary approaches into climate adaptation research. Chris: “Be like Johan van Veen. Unite professional knowledge with long-term thinking, visualisation, and an understanding of nature." Policymakers should invest in vision and creative research, because “after all, these plans will amount to billions of euros when implemented!” And universities should fuel creativity and include ‘design thinking’ in the curriculum. “We want students with the ability to create and the motivation to realise visions of the future: who seek large-scale and unique solutions."

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Journal

npj Ocean Sustainability

DOI

10.1038/s44183-024-00094-2 

Method of Research

Literature review

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Uniting imagination and evidence by design to navigate climate survival in urbanizing deltas

New resources for year-round activism to end gender-based violence and strengthen bodily autonomy for all

CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy

 

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#16to365

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Credit: CUNY SPH

New York, NY | November 22, 2024 - On Friday the Sexual and Reproductive Justice Hub (SRJ Hub) at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy (CUNY SPH) launched the newest iteration of the civil society-led Global 16 Days of Activism to End Gender-based Violence campaign. 

For more than 30 years, feminist activists and movements around the world have used the 16 days between the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women (November 25) and Human Rights Day (December 10) to advocate for an end to gender-based violence. With the help of the SRJ Hub, the campaign now will transition into a year-round initiative, reflecting the 365-days-a-year efforts of feminist activists to shift norms, secure accountability, and transform power structures that oppress women, girls, and gender-diverse people. 

The 2024 campaign responds to requests from grassroots organizers who asked for more flexible and diverse campaign messages, illustrations, and resources. Their perspectives are complemented by insights from the campaign's Advisory Council composed of scholars and organizers with deep experience in gender, economic, racial, reproductive, and environmental justice.

Bodily autonomy, the 2024 campaign theme, makes visible the ways different causes and manifestations of gender-based violence are linked. By avoiding a uniform, standardized approach, the campaign will enable local partners to adapt materials according to their unique needs, prioritizing authenticity and safety in local activism.

“Women’s and feminist gender justice organizations and movements have always been at the forefront of the push for bodily autonomy, and now more than ever we need to support the efforts of grassroots organizers who know what works in their contexts,” said CUNY SPH Senior Associate Dean for Academic and Student Affairs Terry McGovern. “The campaign materials will allow organizers to mix and match sample images and messages or use their own.”

The SRJ Hub continues to encourage funders to support the requests of grassroots organizers for multi-year, trust-based core funding that advances their efforts to promote bodily autonomy and end gender-based violence. This includes support for local events and strategic resources or organizers in restrictive environments.

Addressing Urgent Global Trends

A confluence of global trends threaten previously enshrined protections and push equality farther out of reach for far too many women, girls, and gender-diverse people across the globe. These include femicide and restrictions on abortion access; exclusion and marginalization of LGBTQI+ people; growing gender inequality as debt crises, austerity measures, and corruption crowd out social expenditures; conflict and occupation enabled by disregard for international law; increasingly frequent and devastating climate crises; and failure to fully engage with patriarchal practices driving the popularity of anti-gender movements.

Bodily Autonomy Theme Connects Movements

At a time when equality remains out of reach for far too many women, girls, and gender-diverse people across the globe and many previously enshrined protections are being rolled back, the 2024 campaign theme will amplify the efforts of feminist grassroots groups to resist and counter the impacts of gender-based violence by framing bodily autonomy as a fundamental human right. The campaign defines bodily autonomy as the freedom to express every thought, feeling, need, and desire through our bodies, each uniquely shaping who we are.

“Too often campaigns focus on suffering and victimization,” said SRJ Hub consultant Oriana López Uribe, who led the campaign strategy design process. “We want people to imagine what life could be like if everyone had the power and right to make choices about our physical selves, and to feel empathy and solidarity with others who want the same thing.”

This approach is reflected in the campaign’s principles, which emphasize positivity, bravery, and collective care for all.

Grassroots organizers who reviewed and contributed to the sample messages told us, “I like the different levels of messaging, the intentional counter-messaging for some of the more dominant narratives, and some really simple questions that can lead to rich conversations. Many messages were a refreshing change from NGO comms which I appreciate,” and “I appreciate the nuances in the design of the framework and in the messaging. It has been a long time since I encountered those layers in a global campaign. And I love that the messaging is evoking emotions and not dictating policy solutions. I think this is a tactic that progressive movements have abandoned and that anti-rights groups are good at.”

The campaign is on Instagram, ‘X’ and TikTok as @365toEndGBV and campaign materials are available for download after submitting individual or collective information in this form. The campaign materials include sample templates, illustrations, and messages in Arabic, English, French, Spanish, Portuguese, and Russian, as well as tips for designing campaigns and activities, and examples from other campaigns. The SRJ Hub plans to update and expand materials throughout the year based on user feedback. 

Media contact:

Clarisa Bencomo

Clarisa.Bencomo@sph.cuny.edu

917-702-0998

About the Sexual and Reproductive Justice Hub 

In 2024, the City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy (CUNY SPH) began hosting the Global 16 Days Against Gender-Based Violence campaign following the closure of its founding host, the Center for Women’s Global Leadership at Rutgers University. The campaign is housed at the Sexual & Reproductive Justice Hub (SRJ Hub) at CUNY SPH, which coordinates solutions-oriented scholarship, training, and advocacy, centering the lived experiences of women of color and funding their and other marginalized people’s work. Our work is informed by our experience as part of the United States’ largest, oldest, and most diverse urban public university system, with faculty, staff, and students connected to communities and populations around the world. 

Origin of the Global 16 Days Campaign

The Global Campaign was launched in 1991 at the first Women’s Global Leadership Institute held by the Center for Global Women’s Leadership (CGWL), with the goal of raising awareness of GBV as a human rights violation. From the beginning, the Campaign brought together a diverse group of activists and researchers working at all levels from grassroots to international, and united in their belief that ending GBV requires local and global work to change the norms and systems that drive GBV in all its manifestations.

Under CGWL’s stewardship the Global Campaign gained traction in more than 187 countries, with participation from over 6,000 organizations and a reach of over 300 million. It played a pivotal role in gaining recognition of GBV as a human rights violation in the 1993 Vienna Declaration and Program of Action and the 1995 Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action. Early campaign themes addressed health impacts of GBV, cultural drivers, racism, sexism, and militarism, among others. More recent campaign themes have included femicide (2021-2022), violence against women working in the informal economy (2020), and violence and harassment in the world of work (2018 – 2019). The latter included advocacy in support of the adoption of the historic International Labor Organization (ILO) Convention 190, concerning the elimination of violence and harassment in the world of work (2019). In August 2022, CWGL sadly closed its doors after 31 years of collaborative and transformative global work. The 16 Days Campaign is now housed at CUNY SPH, ensuring that the important work of CWGL will continue going forward.

About CUNY SPH

The CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy (CUNY SPH) is committed to promoting and sustaining healthier populations in New York City and around the world through excellence in education, research, and service in public health and by advocating for sound policy and practice to advance social justice and improve health outcomes for all.

Pot shares fall after efforts to legalize recreational cannabis in U.S. fall short

By The Canadian Press

Bruce Campbell, president and portfolio manager at StoneCastle Investment Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the cannabis sector outlook amid U.S. regul

TORONTO — Shares in Canada's major cannabis companies fell in early trading after the U.S. election, which saw efforts to legalize recreational cannabis in several states fail.

Shares of Canopy Growth Corp. were down $1.61 or about 21 per cent at $6.16 in early trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange, while shares of Organigram Holdings Inc. fell 28 cents or about 11 per cent to $2.28.

Aurora Cannabis Inc. shares were down $1.52 or about 18 per cent at $6.94.

A Florida amendment fell short of the 60 per cent supermajority needed to approve constitutional amendments.

It would have allowed recreational sales of marijuana to people over 21 from existing medical marijuana dispensaries, with the potential for the legislature to license additional retailers.

Measures to legalize recreational marijuana were also trailing in North Dakota and South Dakota.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:WEED, TSX:ACB, TSX:OGI)

Legal Weed Fails in Florida in Victory for DeSantis, Griffin

By Anna J Kaiser and Michael Smith,

Bloomberg NewsNovember 05, 2024 

Frederico Gomes, director of institutional research in life sciences at ATB Capital Markets, joins BNN Bloomberg to share his top picks in cannabis stocks.

(Bloomberg) -- Florida voters rejected a ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana, dealing a blow to the cannabis industry and a giving a big win to the leading opponents: Governor Ron DeSantis and the billionaire financier of his anti-weed campaign, Ken Griffin.

The measure, known as Amendment 3, got 55.9% support — or almost 6 million votes — with 44.1% opposed with 99% of the vote counted, according the Associated Press. But that failed to clear the 60% threshold for approval required by Florida law.

Legalizing recreational marijuana for Florida’s 23 million residents — plus millions of tourists annually — would have been a huge win for the cannabis industry, especially Trulieve Cannabis Corp. The Quincy, Florida-based company contributed about $145 million to the campaign and forecast that as many as 2.7 million people would have moved into the legal weed market.

With Florida on board, about 60% of the US population would have had access to recreational weed, which advocates said would have made national legalization more likely. The cannabis industry invested hundreds of millions of dollars on expanding weed farms, processing plants and dispensary networks in Florida ahead of the vote, betting on soaring demand and profit from legalization.

The massive influx of cash wasn’t enough to offset efforts by DeSantis to defeat the measure. The Republican governor went on a crusade against it, diverting millions in state funds to the effort. He and his wife, Casey, held news conferences with law enforcement officials where they decried the smell of marijuana and what they said was the drug’s potential to increase crime.

The governor’s campaign went beyond weed, said Nick Iarossi, a Tallahassee lobbyist and longtime DeSantis fundraiser and supporter. Fighting legal weed was the centerpiece of DeSantis’ push to bolster his political mandate in Florida after Donald Trump crushed his run for president early this year.

“A lot of people were saying he was in the sunset of his career, but this shows that’s not the case,” Iarossi said in an interview.

The governor found an ally in Griffin, the finance titan and transplant from Chicago. Griffin donated $12 million to the anti-pot cause and was the only large individual donor. All told, DeSantis and anti-weed advocates drummed up $26 million to fight the measure.

The fight over recreational marijuana created some odd bedfellows. Donald Trump, a Florida resident, said he would be voting yes and his ally Roger Stone advocated for the measure. John Morgan, a celebrity personal injury lawyer and longtime Democratic donor, created an alter-ego to promote marijuana in Florida, branding himself as “Pot Daddy.”

(Updates with latest tally, investments by weed industry, details of governor’s campaign starting in second paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Manulife’s Gori Seized Retirement Before Anyone Asked Him to Go

By Christine Dobby,

 Bloomberg News

November 22, 2024 

Manulife beats profit estimates on Asia and wealth management strength

Manulife’s Chief Financial Officer, Colin Simpson joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the company's latest earnings and his outlook for their Asia business.

Manulife’s Chief Financial Officer, Colin Simpson joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the company's latest earnings and his outlook for their Asia business.

(Bloomberg) -- Manulife Financial Corp.’s Chief Executive Officer Roy Gori, who surprised some investors with an earlier-than-expected retirement announcement this week, says he never wanted to stay in the job so long that people started wondering why he just wouldn’t leave.

Australian-born Gori, 56, who has led the Toronto-based insurer and asset manager since 2017, said in an interview Thursday he looked to the famous Indian cricketer Vijay Merchant for inspiration on this front.

“He once said, ‘Retire when they ask you, Why?, not Why not?’” Gori said. “I’m humbly hoping that more people are asking ‘Why?’ for me.”

The conditions were right, he said, because Manulife has a strong successor lined up to take over in May — Phil Witherington, 47, currently head of the Asia division. The firm also has “great business momentum,” in part from a series of deals to de-risk its balance sheet, Gori said.

Manulife just signed a third such accord in the span of less than a year, it said Wednesday, with Reinsurance Group of America agreeing to reinsure C$5.4 billion ($3.9 billion) of reserves.


Capital Release

The transaction, which includes C$2.4 billion in long-term care reserves, will allow Manulife to release C$800 million in capital, which it plans to return to shareholders through buybacks, according to a statement.

“I sort of take a step back and look at what we’ve actually achieved over the last 12 months,” Gori said, listing off the transactions. Those began with a record deal to reinsure C$13 billion of reserves with KKR & Co.’s Global Atlantic Financial Group, followed in March by plans to reinsure C$5.8 billion of Canadian policies with RGA Life Reinsurance Co. of Canada.

“When you take all of those three combined, we reinsured C$24 billion worth of reserves,” he said. In the process, Gori said, Manulife cut its long-term care reserves by about 20%, freed up about C$3 billion in capital and improved its return on equity.

Reinsurance deals lead to lower core earnings, as the insurer no longer books revenue from the policies. But offloading assets with a low return on equity improves overall profitability and cuts the amount of capital Manulife must hold under regulatory rules.

Stock Boost

Manulife shares gained 1.4% to C$45.66 on Thursday, bringing its total return this year including dividends to more than 60%.

“This follow-on transaction was well-telegraphed, but there were still lingering doubts on management’s ability to get it done,” Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman wrote in a report. It’s significant that they succeeded, he wrote, and that the move involved a younger cohort of long-term care reserves than last year’s deal, which means it will cover a longer period of liability.

“While we don’t see Manulife shares reacting as dramatically to this deal as it did after December’s announcement, we think that it will still help drive Manulife’s valuation higher, and further validates our still-bullish thesis on this name,” Grauman said.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Canary Wharf Owners Offer Cash Injection To Help Refinance Debt

By Eleanor Duncan and Libby Cherry

November 22, 2024

(Bloomberg, CBBT)

(Bloomberg) -- Canary Wharf Group’s owners are offering to provide £900 million ($1.1 billion) of new equity to help the property company repay debt — on the condition that bondholders agree to a new layer of secured borrowing.

The company, co-owned by the Qatar Investment Authority and Brookfield Corp., is asking holders of its €300 million bonds due 2026 and its £300 million bonds due 2028 for permission to incur new debt secured on certain assets, according to a statement issued today. 

The aim of the new financing, which will be backed by some of Canary Wharf’s retail assets, is to refinance the 2026 notes as well as £350 million of bonds maturing in April. Canary Wharf has said it would roll over the 2028 notes “in due course.”

Canary Wharf to Use Retail Assets to Refinance £350 Million Bond

If investors agree to the new debt, Brookfield will commit in a letter to providing equity funding of £900 million to repay Canary Wharf’s high-yield bonds maturing in 2025, 2026 and 2028, as well as any loans outstanding under its revolving credit facility. 

QIA, owned by the Qatar sovereign wealth fund, may sign the equity commitment letter at a later stage, said the statement. If that happens, Brookfield and QIA will commit to provide equity funding of £450 million each. 

Moody’s Ratings called the plans “materially credit-positive” because of the “significantly reduced refinancing risk and the new shareholder commitment.” Moody’s anticipates the new £610 million debt facility will fully repay the notes due in April 2025 and 2026 when they mature.

However, the credit rating agency also said that the arrangement means the last remaining note, due in April 2028, “faces refinancing execution risk with a weaker unencumbered asset pool.” 

Canary Wharf’s bonds due 2026 led gains, as markets priced in the plans to refinance the notes with the new debt. The notes are set for their biggest rise in a year, quoted 2.9 cents on the day higher at 97.2 cents on the euro, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

The developer of London’s dockland district has come under pressure from falling property prices as tenants including HSBC Holdings Plc and Clifford Chance LLP are moving to new offices in the City. Job cuts in the financial industry and the shift to more flexible working have added to the uncertainty over long-term demand for office space in the east London outpost.  

The debt-consent solicitation expires at 4 p.m. London time on December 3. Solicitation agents are Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Gunvor’s Rotterdam Oil Refinery Joins List of European Shutdowns

By Jack Wittels and Alex Longley

November 22, 2024 

The Gunvor Group refinery at the Port of Rotterdam in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

 (Peter Boer/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Gunvor Group is temporarily halting its Rotterdam oil refinery because it’s not making enough money, the latest sign that the continent’s plants are struggling to compete with upstarts in other parts of the world.

Effective Nov. 25, the so-called economic halt is due to a lack of prompt availability of commercially viable feedstock, the company said in a statement. Gunvor said it will “continue to monitor the situation and assess future resupply for the refinery in due course.”

With a processing capacity of 75,000 barrels a day, the plant is relatively tiny. Still, it joins a growing list of European refineries with plans to either halt or downsize, including the Wesseling and Gelsenkirchen plants in Germany and the Grangemouth facility in Scotland.

Europe’s refineries are under pressure from large, new plants, including in the Middle East and Africa, such as Nigeria’s giant new Dangote refinery. The rival fuelmakers can send what they make to Europe, and also compete for market share elsewhere in the world.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Argentina’s Economy Unexpectedly Shrank Amid Austerity Push

By Manuela Tobias

November 22, 2024 

(National statistics agency, Bloo)

(Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s economy unexpectedly shrank in September, as President Javier Milei fights to restart an ailing economy amid an aggressive austerity push.

Economic activity fell 0.3% from August, compared with the median estimate for 0.9% growth of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. From a year ago, activity fell 3.3%, according to government data published Friday.

South America’s second-biggest economy is showing incipient signs of recovery, with wage growth outpacing inflation for the sixth consecutive month in September and consumer spending and manufacturing showing gains in recent months. Inflation has been slowing consistently and monthly poverty data Milei’s team tracks closely shows poverty is shrinking from a two-decade peak, too.

Economists surveyed by Argentina’s central bank estimate gross domestic product will contract 3.6% this year, reversed by 3.6% growth in 2025.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Trudeau Reopens Spending Playbook, Shaking Up Bets for Rates, Growth

By Erik Hertzberg, 

Bloomberg News

November 22, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signaled a return to his free-spending playbook as inflation wanes and an election looms, accelerating a bond selloff due to expectations of faster growth and a deeper deficit.

On Thursday, Trudeau announced a C$6.3 billion ($4.5 billion) tax break and rebate package. It includes a two-month halt on federal sales tax on a variety of items including Christmas trees, wine, toys and books, as well as a C$250 check for nearly 19 million Canadians — close to half the population.

The announcement appeared to mark the end of a brief chapter of greater fiscal restraint. For more than a year, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has promised to limit budget deficits to avoid fueling inflationary pressures.

Now, inflation is back to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, and policymakers have already trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points since June. Trudeau’s Liberal government sees a green light to dig deeper into the public purse — but some analysts say investors are keeping close tabs on the country’s indebtedness.

“Markets are no longer willing to give governments a free pass when it comes to fiscal stimulus like this. Even though this is relatively small in the big picture, it means more debt, all else equal,” Taylor Schleich, a rates strategist with National Bank of Canada, said by email.

Bonds continued a selloff on Thursday after the announcement, and the 10-year benchmark yield rose 7 basis points on the day to 3.457%. After retail data on Friday showed a consumer spending rebound, it spiked as high as 3.488%.

Freeland said the stimulus package was meant to make Canadians’ lives “a little bit easier, now that we have the space to do so.” Asked whether it would be funded by other taxes, spending cuts or deeper deficits, Trudeau responded that Canada’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio is the lowest in the Group of Seven and the country’s long-term fiscal picture is sustainable.

But as the government opens the door to more outlays, questions remain about the state of Canada’s finances. Freeland has yet to report final spending and revenue numbers for the last fiscal year, though they are usually released in October. Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux expects a deficit of C$46.8 billion, blowing past Freeland’s self-imposed target of a C$40 billion shortfall.

“Even before this announcement it looked like one of the guardrails was going to be violated,” Schleich said. “It was already going to be a worse fiscal trajectory than the one laid out in the budget and these announcements certainly don’t help.”

Return to ‘Fiscal Activism’

The Trudeau government continued to boost spending even as it pledged smaller deficits. In this year’s budget, it offset new housing and social programs with a new capital gains tax inclusion rate. That prompted a backlash from investors and entrepreneurs, but it helped Freeland project a steady deficit despite major expenditures.

The new announcement suggests Trudeau’s government no longer feels constrained in its ability to deploy fiscal stimulus to regain popularity. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have been about 20 points ahead in most polls for more than a year, hammering the prime minister on affordability and promising to cut taxes, including on income. An election is expected by late October 2025.

The sales tax break is set to run from Dec. 14 to Feb. 15. The left-wing New Democratic Party plans to support it, but said it would continue to campaign to make it permanent and expand it to more items. The government will also face pressure from voters to make it permanent, said Bank of Nova Scotia economist Rebekah Young, which would significantly raise the cost of the policy.

The spending is emblematic of the “fiscal activism that has been a hallmark of the government,” Young said in an interview. The country’s debt has risen to over 40% of GDP, after massive expenditures during the Covid-19 era.

“I think it’s certainly being guided toward more fiscal spending than less fiscal spending over the next couple quarters in Canada at least,” Young said.

After Trudeau’s announcement, traders in overnight swap markets pared bets that the Bank of Canada would deliver a second consecutive 50 basis-point cut in December, putting the odds at less than 25% by the end of Thursday. As of late Friday morning, those odds were below 17%.

The news also prompted some economists to raise their near-term forecasts for Canada’s economy. Analysts at the Bank of Montreal say the country’s gross domestic product will grow at a 2.5% annualized pace in the first three months of 2025, up from 1.7% previously.

“The combination of the new stimulus, more cautious Fed, upside inflation miss, along with an anticipated upward revision to GDP, should all but take a 50 basis-point cut off the table in December,” rates strategist Benjamin Reitzes said.

Speaking to reporters Friday, Trudeau touted his government’s approach to program spending, saying it’s creating optimism and opportunities for families and the middle class.

“We’re focused on Canadians. Let the bankers worry about the economy.”

--With assistance from Jay Zhao-Murray and Monique Mulima.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Canada Post reports $315M quarterly loss as strike enters second week

By The Canadian Press

November 22, 2024 

Talks continue between Canada Post and the union representing striking postal workers with the help of a special mediator.

MONTREAL — Canada Post saw hundreds of millions of dollars drain out of its coffers last quarter, due largely to its dwindling share of the parcels market — while an ongoing strike continues to batter its bottom line.

The Crown corporation said Friday it lost $315 million before tax in the third quarter, larger than its $290 million loss a year earlier.

“An increasingly crowded and highly competitive e-commerce delivery market continued to impact parcels results in the third quarter of 2024,” Canada Post said. The number of packages dropped by six million or nearly 10 per cent year-over-year.

Letter mail volumes also eroded further, though revenue nudged up due to a hike in stamp prices, it said.

The tough financial results put Canada Post on track for “another significant loss” in 2024, which would mark the seventh year in a row in the red.


They also come as Canada Post deals with a weeklong shutdown of its operations after more than 55,000 workers across the country walked off the job on Nov. 15.

The two sides have been wrangling over wages and contract work as well as job security, benefits and working conditions.

Amid the sudden halt of deliveries — government benefit cheques are among the few exceptions — business has increased at other shipping outfits.

“We have record numbers of shippers within the last week. Our volumes — we’re just trying to keep up,” said Kevin Ham, CEO of e-commerce shipping platform Chit Chats.

“Everybody’s at full capacity.”

Purolator, which is majority-owned by Canada Post, said this week its volumes rose by double digits due to the job action. FedEx has implemented a “contingency plan” to manage higher volumes, the company said earlier this week.

Profit margins for shippers may be widening too, at least temporarily.

Montreal-based pantyhose maker Sheertex said that alternative carriers, overloaded with orders, have implemented “significant surge pricing” on shipments.

Small businesses especially have felt the squeeze of the strike, as store owners and entrepreneurs frantically search for workarounds to get orders to customers quickly and affordably.

“It’s a hard time of year for both sellers — like e-commerce sellers — as well as consumers. The consumers are ordering, and if it was in the Canada Post network, their shipments are stuck,” said Ham, who said Chit Chats handles deliveries for some 12,000 online shippers each month ranging from boutique sock makers to jewelry designers.

Even big corporations face hurdles.

“Customers shipping to PO boxes and more rural areas may see delays,” said Walmart Canada spokeswoman Stephanie Fusco in an email. However, she said most consumers making online purchases directly from the company — rather than from third-party sellers on its site — would see “minimal impact.”

The last postal work stoppage took place starting in late October 2018, when employees carried out rotating strikes lasting 31 days.

That strike as well as one in 2011 ended when the federal government passed legislation sending employees back to work.

Canada Post has reported more than $3 billion in losses since 2018, as Canadians sent fewer letters while competitors gobbled up even more of the parcel market.

Households received seven letters a week on average in 2006, but only two per week last year, according to Canada Post’s latest annual report, which dubbed the trend “the Great Mail Decline.”

Both the union and the Crown corporation have pushed expanded parcel deliveries as a way to boost revenue, but they differ on how to go about it. The union says full-time employees should deliver package shipments on weekends at overtime wage rates, while Canada Post hopes to hire contract workers.

According to last year’s annual report, the postal service’s share of the parcel market eroded from 62 per cent before the COVID-19 pandemic to 29 per cent last year, as Amazon and other competitors seized on skyrocketing demand for next-day doorstep deliveries.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 22, 2024.

— With files from Tara Deschamps in Toronto

Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M;  PRICE FIXING

Maple Leaf Foods launches defamation lawsuit against Canada Bread and Grupo Bimbo

By The Canadian Press

November 22, 2024 


TORONTO — Maple Leaf Foods Inc. has launched a defamation lawsuit against Canada Bread Co. Ltd. and its parent company Grupo Bimbo.

The lawsuit comes after Canada Bread accused Maple Leaf of using it as a “shield” to avoid liability in an alleged bread price-fixing scheme, which is subject of two class-action lawsuits and an ongoing Competition Bureau investigation.

In its lawsuit, Maple Leaf says allegations that the company was aware of or played a role in the alleged conspiracy are unfounded, defamatory and devoid of merit.

Maple Leaf was Canada Bread’s controlling shareholder until it was purchased by Grupo Bimbo in 2014.

A spokesperson for Canada Bread said Maple Leaf’s claims are without merit.

Canada Bread is so far the only company to have been fined by the Competition Bureau in relation to the alleged bread price-fixing conspiracy. It pleaded guilty to four counts of price-fixing in 2023 and took a $50-million fine.

However, it has previously denied participating in a “lengthy, wide-ranging conspiracy” to fix the price of bread, and has said that any anticompetitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of Maple Leaf.

Maple Leaf in its lawsuit says there is no merit to the allegations the bureau has made against Canada Bread concerning an alleged conspiracy.

The Competition Bureau began investigating the alleged scheme in 2016, and has alleged that at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread over 16 years.

Loblaw and Weston Foods, both subsidiaries of George Weston at the time, received immunity from prosecution after admitting to participating in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement.”

The major grocers, along with Canada Bread and other companies, are also the subject of two class-action lawsuits concerning the alleged conspiracy, though Loblaw and George Weston recently settled in both suits for a combined $500 million.

The other grocers and food companies implicated in the ongoing lawsuits have denied participating in the alleged conspiracy.

The plaintiffs for the Ontario-based class action lawsuit recently applied to have Maple Leaf added to the class action as a defendant because of its past ownership of Canada Bread, but were not successful.

Canada Bread has alleged Maple Leaf is liable for any damages it has sustained or will sustain from the Competition Bureau investigation and the class action lawsuits, which Maple Leaf has refuted.

Maple Leaf’s lawsuit accuses Canada Bread and its owner Grupo Bimbo of engaging in a “collusive and unlawful scheme” to shift blame onto Maple Leaf for what it claims is mismanagement of the company after it was acquired.

It also claims Grupo Bimbo and Canada Bread didn’t conduct a proper investigation into the bureau’s allegations before Canada Bread took steps to seek leniency in the face of the investigation, despite warnings from Maple Leaf to be careful and not make “unfounded admissions of wrongdoing.”

Maple Leaf alleges the two companies have conspired to shift liability onto it, “even though any such liability is the direct result of their own poor and ill-advised choices.”

Grupo Bimbo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 22, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:MFI)

Rosa Saba, The Canadian Press