Thursday, December 12, 2024

 

Researchers reveal key factors behind Japan’s plastic waste removal rates in rivers



Their findings will help shape cleanup efforts and minimize the amount of plastic litter that makes it to the sea




Tokyo University of Science

A look into plastic litter removal from rivers in Japan 

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Plastic litter recovery from rivers is a rather understudied topic in Japan. To tackle this knowledge gap, researchers conducted an in-depth analysis of plastic removal from over 100 important river basins. Their findings reveal important correlations between plastic litter recovery and demographic and natural factors, which could help improve organized cleanup efforts.

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Credit: Mamoru Tanaka from Tokyo University of Science, Japan




Plastic pollution is an ever-growing problem in today’s world, as most societies have become overly dependent on plastics for packaging, medical supplies, and general goods. Plastic litter accumulation in the ocean, either through deliberate dumping or by being transported from a river, poses significant environmental challenges. Additionally, this plastic eventually degrades into small fragments called microplastics, which then impact diverse marine and land ecosystems by working their way up the food chain and into most living organisms. Though their negative effects on cell health are still under study, many nations have taken a cautionary stance, increasing efforts to curb plastic usage and prevent pollution.

Because of its position in the North Pacific, Japan is a country that both greatly contributes to and is harshly impacted by plastic litter in the ocean and, therefore, needs proactive cleanup campaigns by the government and local communities to recover plastic litter from river basins. Unfortunately, very few studies have focused on the rate of plastic litter removal from Japanese river basins, which is essential for understanding plastic transport dynamics and taking more effective measures.

Against this backdrop, a research team led by Assistant Professor Mamoru Tanaka of Tokyo University of Science (TUS) decided to conduct the first nationwide-level analysis of plastic litter removal from rivers in Japan. As explained in their latest paper, which was published online in the Marine Pollution Bulletin on November 1st, 2024, the team quantified the annual recovery of plastic waste from river banks and water surfaces using a dataset provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Ms. Yumena Okada, who graduated from TUS in 2022, also participated in the study.

The dataset included the amount of plastic recovered from 109 river basins from 2016 to 2020. The researchers analyzed this information and also investigated potential correlations with other factors, such as basin population, the extent of nearby urban areas, and topographical characteristics. The total plastic recovery ranged from 763 to 1,177 tons/year, with an average of 938 tons/year. “Given the emission estimates from previous studies, Japan’s annual plastic emissions are approximately 10,000–20,000 tons. The plastic recovery in river basins of approximately 1,000 tons/year estimated in this study represents approximately one-tenth to one-twentieth of this total. This is a non-negligible contribution toward reducing nationwide plastic emission, though not a decisive amount,” highlights Tanaka.

According to the team’s analysis, the top seven river systems by average plastic waste collection volume were the Yodo River system with 91.6 tons/year, the Yoshino River system with 85.8 tons/year, the Tone River system with 78.8 tons/year, the Tama River system with 72.0 tons/year, the Oto River system with 69.2 tons/year, and the Abukuma River system with 53.9 tons/year. These accounted for roughly 50% of Japan’s total plastic collection volume.

By looking more closely at the data, the researchers noted that natural disasters and extreme weather events were closely related to spikes in the values of plastic litter collected from rivers. “The Ota and Kiso River systems saw a significant rise in plastic waste collected in 2018. Both systems were affected by heavy rains in western Japan that year,” noted Tanaka, “Similarly, the Abukuma River system saw a rise in plastic collection in 2019, which can be attributed to the impact of Typhoon No. 19 in 2019, which caused substantial water damage.” These results shed some light on potential links between climate change, which leads to more extreme weather events, and plastic pollution.

The team also identified other interesting correlations. For example, the Yodo and Tone River systems, which saw some of the highest recovery rates, also serve over 10 million people, but this also increases the amount of waste generated and leads to higher involvement from multiple municipalities. Therefore, there is a positive correlation between the basin population, plastic litter recovery, and the number of people participating in cleanup activities.

Taken together, the results of this nationwide analysis will be useful for authorities and volunteer-based organizations to plan future cleanup activities. “Currently, the Ministry of the Environment scientifically estimates plastic litter levels across various areas of Japan. Our estimates cover where and to what extent plastic waste is generated, how much is collected, how much is deposited in soil and riverbeds, and the amount discharged into the ocean, thereby providing key data to support these estimates,” remarks Tanaka. With any luck, this study will pave the way to better measures to achieve sustainable plastic management, reducing the devastating effects of plastic pollution on wildlife and public health.

 

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Reference                    

Title of original paper: Country-wide assessment of plastic removal rates on riverbanks and water surfaces

Journal: Marine Pollution Bulletin

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117218

 

About The Tokyo University of Science

Tokyo University of Science (TUS) is a well-known and respected university, and the largest science-specialized private research university in Japan, with four campuses in central Tokyo and its suburbs and in Hokkaido. Established in 1881, the university has continually contributed to Japan's development in science through inculcating the love for science in researchers, technicians, and educators.

With a mission of “Creating science and technology for the harmonious development of nature, human beings, and society," TUS has undertaken a wide range of research from basic to applied science. TUS has embraced a multidisciplinary approach to research and undertaken intensive study in some of today's most vital fields. TUS is a meritocracy where the best in science is recognized and nurtured. It is the only private university in Japan that has produced a Nobel Prize winner and the only private university in Asia to produce Nobel Prize winners within the natural sciences field.

Website: https://www.tus.ac.jp/en/mediarelations/

 

About Assistant Professor Mamoru Tanaka from Tokyo University of Science

Mamoru Tanaka obtained a PhD in Applied Marine Environmental Studies from the Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology in 2019. He currently serves as an Associate Professor at the Tokyo University of Science, focusing on observational physical oceanography, microplastics, hydraulic engineering, and turbulence. He has 15 refereed papers published under his name.

 

Funding information

This study was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund [JPMEERF21S11900] from the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Partial funding was provided by The River Foundation, Japan [2022-5211-028] and [2024-5211-060].

 

Giraffes really struggle with slopes

Reports and Proceedings

British Ecological Society

Giraffes really struggle with slopes 

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A giraffe with a GPS tracker.

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Credit: Professor Francois Deacon

New research finds that giraffes much prefer flat terrain and do not traverse slopes of more than 20°, which severely limits the areas in, and outside, protected reserves they can access. The findings, which is are yet to be published, will be presented at the British Ecological Society’s (BES) Annual meeting in Liverpool on the 13th December.

A new study analysing the movements of 33 GPS collared giraffes in South Africa has found that they avoid steep terrain and are unable to navigate slopes with a gradient of more than 20° , most likely due to the energy required and the risk of falling.

The researchers from the University of Manchester and the University of the Free State, South Africa found that giraffes will tolerate terrain of up to 12°, but only if it leads to favourable vegetation.

Jessica Granweiler, a PHD candidate at the University of Manchester, who will present this research at the BES Annual Meeting said “We often think of giraffes roaming in large, flat grassland savannas in Africa, but that's not really their true habitat, there are also rolling hills, deep riverbeds and high plateaus.

“Our study shows that giraffes much prefer flat areas. They will tolerate some steepness to access food, but simply cannot access areas above a 20° gradient. It's quite shocking when you look at distribution maps.”

“Giraffes are tolerant animals and resilient to many things like food availability and human pressures, but this is a scenario where they simply may not be able to adapt due to physiological limits.”

The findings highlight a mismatch between the ideal, flat habitats of giraffes and the areas they’re being conserved in. Using the newly discovered 20° gradient threshold, the researchers were able to calculate the proportion of habitats in key African countries where giraffes are currently found that are inaccessible to the animals.

“In Namibia and Tanzania, there is approximately 8,000km2 that may be unusable to giraffes, that’s nearly half of the size of Wales.” said Jessica. “In Kenya and South Africa, there’s approximately 4,000kmthat may be unusable. What’s even more worrying is that of all the countries we mapped, one in three had more unusable areas in protected areas than outside of protected areas.”

This issue is exacerbated when reserves are fenced, which many in South Africa are. “If a reserve is say 200 hectares but has a large mountain in the middle, from a giraffe’s perspective, this reserve is not 200 hectares anymore.” said Jessica. “We need to start including topography in giraffe conservation planning and habitat assessments, especially for small fenced reserves.”

Professor Susanne Shultz, lead supervisor on Jessica’s PHD, further commented: “Steep and rugged environments are challenging for large-bodied animals, like giraffes. Unfortunately, natural and protected areas are more likely to be placed in such places, which can lead to a mismatch between the landscapes animals ‘want’ to use and the landscapes that we have ‘left’ for them. Incorporating geography and physical limitations in habitat assessments can help avoid conserving animals in inappropriate places.”

Giraffes are currently found in 21 African countries but despite their wide distribution, populations have been declining due to habitat loss, poaching, and human-wildlife conflict. Conservation initiatives are critical for their survival. However, traditional habitat suitability models primarily focus on vegetation distribution, predation, and human disturbance and overlook topography.

In the study, the researchers repurposed GPS data collected between 2011 to 2023 by Dr Francois Deacon’s team at the University of the Free State, South Africa who fitted GPS collars to 33 giraffes (10 males and 23 females) across five reserves in South Africa. The researchers combined this data with topographic maps to work out the gradients that giraffes could and couldn’t navigate.

Dr Francois Deacon, who was also part of this research said "The more awareness we can bring to giraffe ecology, the more research effort there will be on this species in the future. The fact that we are still discovering major limitations or drivers of their ecology and behaviour is worrying. But research like ours helps closing this gap in knowledge and will help better management and conservation of giraffes in the future."

  

A giraffe with a GPS tracker.

Credit

Professor Francois Deacon

-ENDS-

 

Durham University scientists unlock secrets of the longest runout sediment flows on earth using seabed seismographs



Peer-Reviewed Publication

Durham Universi

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With images-

 

Durham University scientists have made a groundbreaking discovery in marine geoscience, revealing unprecedented insights into the dynamics of Earth’s longest runout sediment flows.

 

By using seabed seismographs placed safely outside the destructive paths of powerful underwater avalanches of sediment, researchers have successfully monitored turbidity currents—a natural phenomenon that shapes deep-sea landscapes, damages telecommunication cables, and transports large quantities of sediment and organic carbon to the ocean floor.

 

The study recorded two massive turbidity currents that travelled over 1,000 kilometres through the Congo Canyon-Channel, moving at speeds of up to 7.6 metres per second.

 

These flows lasted over three weeks and marked the longest runout sediment flows ever directly observed on Earth.

 

This achievement provides critical new data on the duration, internal structure, and behaviour of turbidity currents, advancing our understanding of this powerful geophysical process.

 

This breakthrough opens up new possibilities for studying one of the most significant yet poorly understood processes shaping our planet.

 

By using ocean-bottom seismographs, researchers can now safely and effectively measure these extraordinary events in more detail than ever before.

 

Lead author of the study Dr Megan Baker of Durham University, said: “This multidisciplinary work brought together geologists, seismologists, and engineers to advance our understanding of powerful turbidity currents through first-of-their-kind observations using ocean-bottom seismographs.

 

“This approach enables the safe monitoring of these hazardous events and will help us learn where and how often turbidity currents occur globally.”

 

The research team, which included researchers from Newcastle University, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, National Oceanography Centre, Georg-August-University, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam, IFREMER, Université Paris-Saclay, TU Wien, University of Hull, University of Southampton and Loughborough University, successfully used ocean-bottom seismographs – instruments that are placed on the seafloor to record seismic signals generated by the turbidity currents.

 

This innovative approach allowed the researchers to capture detailed information on these flows without risking damage to expensive equipment, as has been the case with previous attempts.

 

The use of these seismographs marks a major step forward in monitoring hazardous seabed events, offering a cost-effective and long-term method for studying turbidity currents and their impacts.

 

The findings also reveal the global significance of these underwater flows. The turbidity currents studied in this research not only shape deep-sea landscapes but also play a crucial role in the transport of organic carbon and sediment to the ocean floor, with significant implications for deep-sea ecosystems and global carbon cycles.

 

The study shows that despite substantial erosion of the seafloor, the front of these massive flows maintains a near-constant speed and duration, efficiently moving organic material and sediment vast distances to the deep-sea.

 

The study also challenges traditional models of turbidity current behaviour, suggesting that the flows can maintain a consistent speed and duration even as they erode the seabed.

 

This finding calls for a revaluation of existing models that have been based primarily on shorter, shallower flows.

 

ENDS

 

Media Information

 

Dr Megan Baker from Durham University is available for interview and can be contacted on megan.l.baker@durham.ac.uk.

 

Alternatively, please contact Durham University Communications Office for interview requests on communications.team@durham.ac.uk or +44 (0)191 334 8623.

 

Source

 

‘Seabed Seismographs Reveal Duration and Structure of Longest Runout Sediment Flows on Earth’, (2024), Megan Baker et. al, Geophysical Research Letters.

 

An embargoed copy of the paper is available from Durham University Communications Office. Please email communications.team@durham.ac.uk.

 

Graphics

 

Associated images are available via the following link: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/mms2erz5bh8pxhbms2240/AEOC2biUjpNOodxBKQBOUWU?rlkey=rh18zv6zn1e6slrshkpdsnrfl&st=1ywo6rm5&dl=0

 

About Durham University

 

Durham University is a globally outstanding centre of teaching and research based in historic Durham City in the UK.

 

We are a collegiate university committed to inspiring our people to do outstanding things at Durham and in the world.

 

We conduct research that improves lives globally and we are ranked as a world top 100 university with an international reputation in research and education (QS World University Rankings 2025).

 

We are a member of the Russell Group of leading research-intensive UK universities and we are consistently ranked as a top 10 university in national league tables (Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide, Guardian University Guide and The Complete University Guide).

 

For more information about Durham University visit: www.durham.ac.uk/about/

 

END OF MEDIA RELEASE – issued by Durham University Communications Office.

 

University of Houston students address energy poverty, shine in global competition



UH and Texas A&M students join forces for the win


University of Houston

The Dream Team 

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Sarah Grace Kimberly (L), Pranjal Sheth(C), both senior finance majors at UH, and Nathan Hazlett (R), a finance graduate student at Texas A&M comprise the Dream Team, which placed third in the 2024 Switch Competition.

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Credit: Photos courtesy of the Dream Team.



HOUSTON, Dec. 12 2024 – A group of ambitious students from the University of Houston and Texas A&M University, identifying as the “Dream Team,” secured third place in the prestigious global Switch Competition. This annual virtual event, sponsored by the Switch Energy Alliance, challenges university students to develop innovative solutions for addressing energy poverty worldwide — a critical issue affecting millions.

The team is comprised of Sarah Grace Kimberly and Pranjal Sheth, both senior finance majors at UH, and Nathan Hazlett, a finance graduate student at A&M who previously earned a bachelor’s degree in petroleum engineering. Competing against 145 teams from 34 countries, the trio’s interdisciplinary approach and emphasis on sustainability and economic feasibility helped them place and win $5,000.

“The Switch Competition tackles major issues that we often don’t think about on a daily basis in the United States, so it is a really interesting and tough challenge to solve,” said Kimberly, who is passionate about energy issues and helping communities.

Sheth highlighted the importance of global awareness.

“People in the United States should be extremely thankful for the infrastructure and systems that allow us to thrive with power, food and water,” he said. “Texas went through Winter Storm Uri in 2021—people were without electricity for weeks, and lives were lost. It still comes up in conversations, but certain regions of the world, developing nations, live that experience almost every day. We need to make that a larger part of the conversation and work to help them.”

The team developed a comprehensive 10-year energy plan addressing energy poverty in Egypt and Turkey.

The team’s innovative strategy prioritized the integration of renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaic systems, wind energy and micro-hydro solutions, tailored to the unique needs and challenges of the two countries. Highlights of the students’ plan included:

  • Solar Expansion: Utilizing Egypt's high solar irradiance to develop rooftop and utility-scale solar farms, including innovative solar canopies over irrigation canals to reduce water evaporation while generating clean energy.
  • Wind Development: Harnessing high wind speeds in Egypt's Gulf of Suez and Western Desert to expand wind power capacity significantly.
  • Micro-Hydro Systems: Deploying cost-efficient technologies along the Nile for rural electrification and agricultural support.
  • Economic and Social Impact: Their plan projected the creation of over 200,000 jobs, reduction of energy costs, and a transformative impact on rural communities by improving energy access.

“I want to make an impact in energy finance, and I used a lot of those skills in this competition to help create a 10-year energy plan that contributed to better economics, integrated with legislation and ultimately benefited human beings,” Sheth said.

All three students are graduating seniors and will be starting their careers as full-time investment banking analysts next summer.

Kimberly said case competitions are great opportunities for students.

“They are a fantastic way to fund your education, meet new friends and connect with employers,” she said. “Even if you don’t win, you are learning something with every presentation you do.”

The team’s efforts exemplify the vital role young leaders can play in addressing global challenges and coming up with thoughtful, innovative solutions to energy poverty. More than 3,200 students from 55 countries have participated in the Switch Competition since its inception in 2020.

To watch the video of the final round of the 2024 Switch Competition, click here.

Caption for attached photo: 

Sarah Grace Kimberly (L), Pranjal Sheth(C), both senior finance majors at UH, and Nathan Hazlett (R), a finance graduate student at Texas A&M comprise the Dream Team, which placed third in the 2024 Switch Competition. Photos courtesy of the Dream Team.


About the University of Houston

The University of Houston is a Carnegie-designated Tier One public research university recognized with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter for excellence in undergraduate education. UH serves the globally competitive Houston and Gulf Coast Region by providing world-class faculty, experiential learning and strategic industry partnerships. Located in the nation's fourth-largest city and one of the most ethnically and culturally diverse regions in the country, UH is a federally designated Hispanic, Asian American and Native American Pacific Islander-serving institution with enrollment of more than 46,000 students.

 



WVU research finds CEOs innovate — or don’t — based on compensation packages and input from analysts





West Virginia University

Wang1200x800 

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Xinchun Wang, a WVU expert on corporate innovation, has demonstrated how CEO investments in research and development reflect company stock prices.

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Credit: WVU Photo/Jennifer Shephard




West Virginia University research shows the stock market shapes chief executive officers’ commitments to innovation through mechanisms that range from CEO pay packages to feedback from financial analysts.

“The investment industry usually views financial analysts’ feedback, such as earnings forecasts, as impeding innovation because of the pressure the feedback puts on CEOs,” said Xinchun Wang, associate professor of marketing at the WVU John Chambers College of Business and Economics. “But not all feedback provided by analysts generates that kind of pressure. Stock recommendations actually foster explorative activities like research and development — investments that, although risky, can positively affect long-term returns.”

In a paper in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Wang and his co-author examined the effect of feedback from financial analysts on CEOs’ corporate strategizing. They found analysts’ stock recommendations swayed management decisions indirectly, by influencing investors and consequently stock prices, and directly, when analysts and management interacted during meetings in which analysts questioned or sought clarification on company strategy.

Firm management pays close attention to stock recommendations, Wang said, pointing to the ongoing recommendation by Goldman Sachs analysts that investors sell their stock in Imax. That recommendation has spurred Imax’s CEO to repeatedly emphasize his efforts to change the company’s rating by building an innovative new business model that goes beyond the traditional movie theater.

“Financial analysts are information intermediaries between a firm and its investors, and their feedback about current performance and future returns is critical to management,” Wang said. “Compared with earnings forecasts, which focus on short-term financials, stock recommendations reflect analysts’ evaluations of a firm’s investment potential. They’re based on long-term evaluations of future cash flows. CEOs can’t respond to stock recommendations with short-term actions like temporarily reducing R&D expenses — analysts expect to see strategic changes.”

Long-term investments in innovation are indispensable to a company’s success, he emphasized.

“Look at Adobe. That company experienced declining revenues for two years after transitioning from license sales to cloud-based subscriptions in 2013. But CEO Shantanu Narayen stayed true to the firm’s long-term strategic intention, and by 2022 revenue was up almost 500%.”

Unlike Narayen, however, many CEOs sacrifice future sustainability for immediate returns — often having been incentivized to do so by their compensation packages, Wang said.

For a paper published in the Journal of Product Innovation Management, Wang investigated the relationship between CEOs’ strategic short-sightedness, or “myopia,” and the way they are paid.

He found CEOs who are about to exercise stock options — buying their company’s stock at a set low price and reselling it at the higher current market price — are prone to temporarily boosting their firms’ stock prices by cutting innovation-focused expenditures on research and development. 

“Myopic CEOs prioritize short-term gains over long-term returns,” he said. “When CEOs cut R&D expenditures to inflate earnings and raise the stock price, that’s myopia. Paying CEOs in stock options incentivizes them to be myopic and to drive stock prices as high as possible before they exercise their options. That was one of the motivations of WorldCom CEO Bernard Ebbers, who was charged with securities fraud for falsely inflating WorldCom’s earnings to manipulate stock prices and benefit his personal interests.”

Wang said CEOs who have more power, such as those who also hold positions on their companies’ boards of directors, are under less pressure to promote innovation. They can afford to pursue opportunistic strategies that serve their own goals.

He pointed to one survey of more than 400 corporate executives, 80% of whom admitted they would cut spending on R&D, advertising and maintenance to meet an earnings target.

“Those cuts happen when compensation plans reward short-term success and CEOs are given too much power,” he said. “Powerful CEOs can even protect their personal profit by designing their own compensation systems with fewer performance-based incentives.”

But a firm with a history and culture of innovation can exert its own pressure on the CEO, Wang noted.

“It’s particularly important for organizations to promote innovation when their CEOs are faced with underperformance pressures that are raising shareholder concerns. Boards of directors should mitigate that performance pressure by emphasizing to their CEOs the importance of long-term innovation investments,” he said.

“Stakeholders also need to pay close attention to a CEO’s actions as the time for exercising stock options approaches. Companies need specific guidelines regarding when and how CEOs can exercise or sell their stock options, and CEOs need to understand how their firms will monitor them to prevent myopic behavior.”

 

Aldabra Atoll's remarkable shoreline resilience over 51 years

Climate change

Peer-Reviewed Publication

University of Zurich

Aldabra raised atoll shoreline illustration 

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Aldabra's raised atoll shoreline: From 1960 to 2011, 24% of the shoreline changed at a rate of 25 cm/ yr, the lagoon shoreline changed at 32 cm/yr and the ocean shoreline changed at 15 cm/yr.

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Credit: Annabelle Constance, Seychelles Islands Foundation

Low-lying islands are threatened by sea level rise due to global warming. Between 1993 and 2013, coastal areas within the Western Indian Ocean experienced a sea level rise of 2-3 mm per year. Understanding how this rise affects the shoreline of Aldabra Atoll, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Seychelles, is crucial for the management and protection of its unique ecosystem and species.

Aldabra’s shoreline is dynamic but does not show major loss overall

A new study led by scientists from the University of Zurich and the Seychelles Islands Foundation has illuminated the dynamic yet stable nature of Aldabra Atoll's shoreline. Recently published in Scientific Reports, this research tracked shoreline changes for 51 years using aerial and satellite images, providing the first comprehensive understanding of shoreline responses on raised atolls.

Despite rising sea levels and reduced sediment supply, Aldabra Atoll has successfully maintained its net shoreline and likely total land area. Findings show that 61% of the shoreline remained unchanged, while the areas that did change averaged approximately 25 cm per year – lower than the global average for atolls. The lagoon shoreline underwent more rapid changes than the erosion-resistant ocean shoreline, particularly in areas exposed to wind and waves.

Local shoreline changes and effects on ecosystems

While the shoreline on average, has not changed, the study observed local accretion and erosion affecting 24% of the total shoreline (12% of the shoreline accreted and 12% eroded). For example, accretion happened on the lagoon shoreline, shifting sandy beaches to mangrove habitats. On the other hand, erosion affected sandy beaches with turtle nesting sites and the research station.

Leaving islands and their surroundings undisturbed is importance for their resilience

Annabelle Constance from the Seychelles Islands Foundation, the lead author, stated: "Our findings are significant as they highlight Aldabra Atoll's resilience and its ability to maintain its shoreline despite rising sea levels and climate change."

She further emphasized: "Our research enhances understanding of reef island adjustment capacities in raised atolls and provides a benchmark for shoreline change rates for atolls, given the minimal human impact on Aldabra."

However, continuous monitoring and timely adaptation strategies remain crucial for the conservation of Aldabra's unique ecosystems, particularly as extreme events and the impacts of climate change are predicted to worsen.

"Translating our findings into a broader context highlights the importance of minimizing local human impacts on the coastline, particularly regarding sediment availability, to preserve the natural dynamics of reef islands," she said.

"We were very lucky to have access to airborne imagery that was available from the 1960’s, providing a unique reference in time" says Gabriela Schaepman-Strub, professor at the University of Zurich. "But we should not forget – this imagery was acquired when Aldabra was threatened by development plans back then." The plans were eventually stopped and Aldabra became a UNESCO World Heritage and Ramsar Wetland Site.

Schaepman-Strub adds: "And as we understand now from our study, the resilience of Aldabra's shoreline to sea level rise might be tightly linked to its high protection status. If humans start to disturb this system, for example by building tourism infrastructure into the sea or on land, this might strongly impact the natural erosion and accretion mechanisms, reducing the resilience to sea level rise."

Aerial view of the shoreline of the Aldabra research station on the Aldabra Atoll in the Western Indian Ocean in 2019.

Credit

University Research Priority Program, University of Zurich


 

El Niño exacerbates effects of drought on Amazon groundwater and increases fire risk, study finds



Researchers have been able to demonstrate a link between the climatic phenomenon and the propensity for fires, creating a tool that could help with future prevention efforts.



Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo




The risk of fires in the Amazon is greater in regions where groundwater storage is compromised, especially when El Niño exacerbates the drought. Using satellite images and data from fires, researchers have been able to demonstrate the relationship between the climatic phenomenon and the propensity for fires, creating a tool that could help with future prevention efforts.  

The results of the study, based on information from 2004 to 2016, show a decrease in moisture conditions at three levels – topsoil (SFSM), tree root zone (RTZSM) and groundwater (GWS), with the latter being the most arid. It is these “reservoirs” that take the longest to recover when they are affected by successive and extreme droughts caused by El Niño, one of the climatic phenomena with the greatest impact on Earth.

In recent decades, human-caused (anthropogenic) forest fires have significantly altered the dynamics of vegetation in the Amazon region. These human activities are considered “ignitions” for fire in the rainforest, and the escalation of fires is linked to climatic conditions.

This year alone, the total number of fires recorded in the Brazilian Amazon from January to November 20th is the highest since 2010 – 132,211 in just under 11 months, according to data from Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research (INPE). Using a different methodology to that of INPE, the Laboratory of Environmental Satellite Applications (LASA) of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) points out that about 128,000 km² of the biome have already been burned this year, an area equivalent to the territory of England.

“We decided to investigate the impact of the meteorological and hydrological drought on fires in the Amazon, paying attention to the role of groundwater and El Niño events, as part of the SACRE project, which focuses more on urban areas, but also looks at rural areas and forests. And we’ve been able to demonstrate the relationship,” says Professor Bruno Conicelli of the Institute of Geosciences at the University of São Paulo (USP), corresponding author of the study.

The article, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, was co-authored by researcher Ricardo Hirata, coordinator of “SACRE: Integrated Water Solutions for Resilient Cities”. One of the largest applied research projects on water resources in Brazil, SACRE focuses on groundwater and aims to reduce the vulnerability of cities and rural areas to crises related to global climate change. It is supported by FAPESP through a Thematic Project.   

Database

To characterize the hydrological drought, the researchers used satellite data from the GRACE mission, which measures terrestrial water storage by integrating soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater.

They cross-referenced this with data on the severity of the drought in each of the locations studied. They were able to identify areas of lower humidity concentration in the northeast of the Amazon basin, as well as a decrease in humidity toward the east.

The largest areas burned coincided with regions that experienced drought during extreme El Niño events, with an increase between 2015 and 2016. At the time, the phenomenon was considered one of the three most intense on record (along with 1982/83 and 1997/98). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the 2023/2024 event ranks among the five strongest.

El Niño is characterized by an abnormal warming of the surface of the Pacific Ocean due to a decrease in the intensity of the trade winds. Atmospheric circulation patterns over the Pacific are altered, with a change in the distribution of humidity and temperatures in different parts of the planet. International reports indicate that the frequency and intensity of this event will increase in the coming decades.  

“We know that fires in the Amazon have anthropogenic origins. However, when there’s a record of a more intense El Niño, as there was in 2016, which we investigated, and again in 2024, meteorological and hydrological droughts become more severe in the forest. Under these conditions, the vegetation depends heavily on groundwater to survive. The smaller trees, with shallower roots, are the first to suffer from the lack of water,” says Conicelli, who was the supervisor of the paper’s first author, Naomi Toledo. When the research began, she was a student at the IKIAM Amazon Regional University in Ecuador, where Conicelli was a professor for four years.

In August, an international group published the first State of Wildfires report, showing that fires in the western Amazon – which includes the Brazilian states of Amazonas, Acre, Roraima and Rondônia – between March 2023 and February 2024 were driven by prolonged droughts linked to El Niño. Combined with weather conditions, droughts explained 68% of these fires, followed by the influence of anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, agriculture and fragmentation of natural landscapes (read more at: agencia.fapesp.br/52662).    

Alert system

Based on the results of the work, the group is developing a fire risk index adapted to the Amazon region, including both meteorological indicators (linked to rainfall) and hydrological indicators (water in the soil, rivers, aquifers and other reserves). The model can be applied to other ecosystems.

By demonstrating the link between meteorological and hydrological conditions and the aggravation of forest fires, the results can contribute to fire risk reduction and prevention strategies. “Studies like these are also important for raising awareness of how vulnerable the forest is to extreme weather events, which are increasingly frequent and intense,” adds the researcher.

In the future, Conicelli says, the system will be able to add data collected in the field to warn of declining groundwater levels.

About FAPESP

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration.