Collapsing Buildings In Egypt’s Alexandria Raise Alarm

Alexandria's coastal buildings face the risk of erosion and collapse due to rising sea levels. Copyright: Essam Heggy/SciDev.Net

 March 9, 2025  

By Mohammed El-Said

Buildings in the ancient Egyptian city of Alexandria have been collapsing at an alarming rate over the last two decades—a fate which could await coastal cities around the world, according to researchers.

Over the past 20 years, the densely populated port city has seen more than 280 buildings collapse—a rate ten times higher than in previous decades—according to the study published in the journal Earth Future.

It says more than 7,000 buildings in the most vulnerable part of the coastline are now at risk of crumbling, making it the most at-risk area of the Mediterranean Basin.

Severe coastal erosion and rising sea levels—a result of climate change—are driving this phenomenon, which is not unique to Alexandria, says the researchers.

Essam Heggy, a researcher at the University of Southern California, USA, who led the team, told SciDev.Net: “Alexandria is a living example of the challenges facing other coastal cities in the region due to climate change and uncontrolled urban expansion.

“The results of the study reflect the potential risks and preventive measures that can be applied globally.”

Coastal erosion and rising sea levels accelerate seawater intrusion into groundwater layers, increasing water and salt levels.

This destabilises the soil and speeds up the corrosion of building foundations, according to the study.

The researchers analysed geographic, geological and engineering data to identify the locations and characteristics of collapsed buildings.

They also used government reports and news archives to monitor damaged or threatened buildings and assessed the development of the coastline using satellite imagery and topographic maps.

“We also conducted a soil settlement analysis in different regions, which revealed a link between poor soil stability and increased building collapses, as well as a statistical analysis of geological change rates to assess the impact of coastal retreat on infrastructure,” said Sara Fouad, a visiting researcher at the Faculty of Engineering and Design at the Technical University of Munich, Germany.

The area hardest hit by extreme erosion is the Gharb district of Alexandria, where the shoreline has retreated by an average of 31 metres a year over the last century, according to the study.

Coastal erosion has led to increased salt infiltration into shallow coastal aquifers a few kilometres inland, negatively affecting soil quality and moisture levels, researchers explain.

The over-extraction of groundwater is exacerbating seawater intrusion, leading to further salt intrusion into coastal aquifers and building foundations, according to the analysis.

Areas that have undergone extensive land reclamation are particularly vulnerable due to damage to the foundations, says Heggy.

He says the problem is made worse by a lack of maintenance of old buildings, poor urban planning, weak sewage infrastructure, and insufficient legislation.

Poor management of the waterfront has also been a factor, believes Fouad. She says a comprehensive approach to risk management and sustainable urban planning is needed.

Other cities at risk

Although the study focused on Alexandria, its results carry warnings for other coastal cities in the southern Mediterranean, such as Tunis and Tripoli.

The study notes that coastal municipalities in Tunisia have reported significant structural damage from beach erosion, particularly in areas experiencing rapid urban expansion.

Building collapse rates along Italy’s southern coast meanwhile have increased by nine per cent over the past two decades, raising concerns about the safety of thousands of buildings.

Amir Gohar, senior lecturer in urban planning and management at the University of the West of England, says widespread urbanisation along Egypt’s North Coast, including the development of coastal tourist villages, is disrupting national sedimentation processes and driving sea levels up.

“Consequently, shoreline erosion, combined with rising sea levels, affects the structural foundations of coastal building strips in major cities,” he said.

He said the impact of sea level rises varies across Mediterranean countries but is “a persistent challenge for the entire region”.

‘Living beaches’

The study proposes environmental and technical solutions based on nature-based “soft defence” techniques, such as green infrastructure and eco-friendly coastal designs, to protect coastal buildings against climate change.

These solutions include so-called “living beaches”, designed to stabilise the shoreline and protect wildlife, as well as breakwaters, rain gardens, and restoration of wetlands, to reduce the risks of flooding, seawater intrusion, and soil erosion.

“We recommend designing a green street network with salt-tolerant plants along the coast, which enhances water absorption and mitigates the impact of high tides,” added Fouad.

Mattheios Santamouris, professor of high-performance architecture at the University of New South Wales, Australia, believes the study provides a strong analysis of the hydro-climatic factors affecting building collapse.

He says better coordination and cooperation with local authorities could help in implementing the preventive measures proposed by the study.

Egypt must adopt strategies for both adaptation and mitigation, adds Gohar.

These could include building sea walls and flood barriers, as well as restoration of mangrove forests and coral reefs, to provide natural defences against storm surges.

Removing buildings and relocating communities away from vulnerable areas should also be considered, says Gohar, as well as implementing regulations to stop the expansion of coastal resorts on the North Coast.

This article was produced by SciDev.Net’s Middle East and North Africa regional office.

Mohammed El-Said writes for SciDev.Net.

SPACE/COSMOS

James Webb Space Telescope Reveals Unexpected Complex Chemistry In Primordial Galaxy




This infrared image from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope was taken by the onboard Near-Infrared Camera for the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey, or JADES, program. The NIRCam data was used to determine which galaxies to study further with spectroscopic observations. One such galaxy, JADES-GS-z14-0 (shown in the pullout), was determined to be at a redshift of 14.3, making it the current record-holder for most distant known galaxy. This corresponds to a time less than 300 million years after the big bang. Credit NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Brant Robertson (UC Santa Cruz), Ben Johnson (CfA), Sandro Tacchella (Cambridge), Marcia Rieke (University of Arizona), Daniel Eisenstein (CfA), Phill Cargile (CfA)

March 11, 2025 

By Eurasia Review


University of Arizona astronomers have learned more about a surprisingly mature galaxy that existed when the universe was just less than 300 million years old – just 2% of its current age.

Observed by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, the galaxy – designated JADES-GS-z14-0 – is unexpectedly bright and chemically complex for an object from this primordial era, the researchers said. This provides a rare glimpse into the universe’s earliest chapter.

The findings, published in the journal Nature Astronomy, build upon the researchers’ previous discovery, reported in 2024, of JADES-GS-z14-0 as the most distant galaxy ever observed. While the initial discovery established the galaxy’s record-breaking distance and unexpected brightness, this new research delves deeper into its chemical composition and evolutionary state.

The work was done as part of the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey, or JADES, a major James Webb Space Telescope program designed to study distant galaxies.

This wasn’t simply stumbling upon something unexpected, said Kevin Hainline, co-author of the new study and an associate research professor at the U of A Steward Observatory. The survey was deliberately designed to find distant galaxies, but this one broke the team’s records in ways they didn’t anticipate – it was intrinsically bright and had a complex chemical composition that was totally unexpected so early in the universe’s history.

“It’s not just a tiny little nugget. It’s bright and fairly extended for the age of the universe when we observed it,” Hainline said.

“The fact that we found this galaxy in a tiny region of the sky means that there should be more of these out there,” said lead study author Jakob Helton, a graduate researcher at Steward Observatory. “If we looked at the whole sky, which we can’t do with JWST, we would eventually find more of these extreme objects.”

The research team used multiple instruments on board JWST, including the Near Infrared Camera, or NIRCam, whose construction was led by U of A Regents Professor of Astronomy Marcia Rieke. Another instrument on the telescope – the Mid-Infrared Instrument, or MIRI, revealed something extraordinary: significant amounts of oxygen.

In astronomy, anything heavier than helium is considered a “metal,” Helton said. Such metals require generations of stars to produce. The early universe contained only hydrogen, helium and trace amounts of lithium. But the discovery of substantial oxygen in the JADES-GS-z14-0 galaxy suggests the galaxy had been forming stars for potentially 100 million years before it was observed.

To make oxygen, the galaxy must have started out very early on, because it would have had to form a generation of stars, said George Rieke, Regents Professor of Astronomy and the study’s senior author. Those stars must have evolved and exploded as supernovae to release oxygen into interstellar space, from which new stars would form and evolve.

“It’s a very complicated cycle to get as much oxygen as this galaxy has. So, it is genuinely mind boggling,” Rieke said.

The finding suggests that star formation began even earlier than scientists previously thought, which pushes back the timeline for when the first galaxies could have formed after the Big Bang.

The observation required approximately nine days of telescope time, including 167 hours of NIRCam imaging and 43 hours of MIRI imaging, focused on an incredibly small portion of the sky.

The U of A astronomers were lucky that this galaxy happened to sit in the perfect spot for them to observe with MIRI. If they had pointed the telescope just a fraction of a degree in any direction, they would have missed getting this crucial mid-infrared data, Helton said.

“Imagine a grain of sand at the end of your arm. You see how large it is on the sky – that’s how large we looked at,” Helton said.

The existence of such a developed galaxy so early in cosmic history serves as a powerful test case for theoretical models of galaxy formation.

“Our involvement here is a product of the U of A leading in infrared astronomy since the mid-’60s, when it first started. We had the first major infrared astronomy group over in the Lunar and Planetary lab, with Gerard Kuiper, Frank Low and Harold Johnson,” Rieke said.

As humans gain the ability to directly observe and understand galaxies that existed during the universe’s infancy, it can provide crucial insights into how the universe evolved from simple elements to the complex chemistry necessary for life as we know it.

“We’re in an incredible time in astronomy history,” Hainline said. “We’re able to understand galaxies that are well beyond anything humans have ever found and see them in many different ways and really understand them. That’s really magic.”

Climate Change Will Reduce Number Of Satellites That Can Safely Orbit In Space

March 11, 2025 

By Eurasia Review


MIT aerospace engineers have found that greenhouse gas emissions are changing the environment of near-Earth space in ways that, over time, will reduce the number of satellites that can sustainably operate there.

In a study that will appear in Nature Sustainability, the researchers report that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can cause the upper atmosphere to shrink. An atmospheric layer of special interest is the thermosphere, where the International Space Station and most satellites orbit today. When the thermosphere contracts, the decreasing density reduces atmospheric drag— a force that pulls old satellites and other debris down to altitudes where they will encounter air molecules and burn up.

Less drag therefore means extended lifetimes for space junk, which will litter sought-after regions for decades and increase the potential for collisions in orbit.

The team carried out simulations of how carbon emissions affect the upper atmosphere and orbital dynamics, in order to estimate the “satellite carrying capacity” of low-Earth orbit. These simulations predict that by the year 2100, the carrying capacity of the most popular regions could be reduced by 50-66 percent due to the effects of greenhouse gases.

“Our behavior with greenhouse gases here on Earth over the past 100 years is having an effect on how we operate satellites over the next 100 years,” says study author Richard Linares, associate professor in MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AeroAstro).

“The upper atmosphere is in a fragile state as climate change disrupts the status quo,” adds lead author William Parker, a graduate student in AeroAstro. “At the same time, there’s been a massive increase in the number of satellites launched, especially for delivering broadband internet from space. If we don’t manage this activity carefully and work to reduce our emissions, space could become too crowded, leading to more collisions and debris.”


The study includes co-author Matthew Brown of the University of Birmingham.
Sky fall

The thermosphere naturally contracts and expands every 11 years in response to the sun’s regular activity cycle. When the sun’s activity is low, the Earth receives less radiation, and its outermost atmosphere temporarily cools and contracts before expanding again during solar maximum.

In the 1990s, scientists wondered what response the thermosphere might have to greenhouse gases. Their preliminary modeling showed that, while the gases trap heat in the lower atmosphere, where we experience global warming and weather, the same gases radiate heat at much higher altitudes, effectively cooling the thermosphere. With this cooling, the researchers predicted that the thermosphere should shrink, reducing atmospheric density at high altitudes.

In the last decade, scientists have been able to measure changes in drag on satellites, which has provided some evidence that the thermosphere is contracting in response to something more than the sun’s natural, 11-year cycle.

“The sky is quite literally falling — just at a rate that’s on the scale of decades,” Parker says. “And we can see this by how the drag on our satellites is changing.”

The MIT team wondered how that response will affect the number of satellites that can safely operate in Earth’s orbit. Today, there are over 10,000 satellites drifting through low-Earth orbit, which describes the region of space up to1,200 miles, or 2,000 kilometers, from Earth’s surface. These satellites deliver essential services, including internet, communications, navigation, weather forecasting, and banking. The satellite population has ballooned in recent years, requiring operators to perform regular collision-avoidance maneuvers to keep safe. Any collisions that do occur can generate debris that remains in orbit for decades or centuries, increasing the chance for follow-on collisions with satellites, both old and new.

“More satellites have been launched in the last five years than in the preceding 60 years combined,” Parker says. “One of key things we’re trying to understand is whether the path we’re on today is sustainable.”
Crowded shells

In their new study, the researchers simulated different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over the next century to investigate impacts on atmospheric density and drag. For each “shell,” or altitude range of interest, they then modeled the orbital dynamics and the risk of satellite collisions based on the number of objects within the shell. They used this approach to identify each shell’s “carrying capacity” — a term that is typically used in studies of ecology to describe the number of individuals that an ecosystem can support.

“We’re taking that carrying capacity idea and translating it to this space sustainability problem, to understand how many satellites low-Earth orbit can sustain,” Parker explains.

The team compared several scenarios: one in which greenhouse gas concentrations remain at their level from the year 2000 and others where emissions change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). They found that scenarios with continuing increases in emissions would lead to a significantly reduced carrying capacity throughout low-Earth orbit.

In particular, the team estimates that by the end of this century, the number of satellites safely accommodated within the altitudes of 200 and 1,000 kilometers could be reduced by 50 to 66 percent compared with a scenario in which emissions remain at year-2000 levels. If satellite capacity is exceeded, even in a local region, the researchers predict that the region will experience a “runaway instability,” or a cascade of collisions that would create so much debris that satellites could no longer safely operate there.

Their predictions forecast out to the year 2100, but the team says that certain shells in the atmosphere today are already crowding up with satellites, particularly from recent “megaconstellations” such as SpaceX’s Starlink, which comprises fleets of thousands of small internet satellites.

“The megaconstellation is a new trend, and we’re showing, because of climate change, we’re going to have a reduced capacity in orbit,” Linares says. “And in local regions, we’re close to approaching this capacity value today.”

“We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris. And if the atmosphere is changing, then the debris environment will change too,” Parker adds. “We show the long-term outlook on orbital debris is critically dependent on curbing our greenhouse gas emissions.”

This research is supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Air Force, and the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council.

NASA Receives Some Data Before Intuitive Machines Ends Lunar Mission

Intuitive Machines’ IM-2 captured an image March 6, 2025, after landing in a crater from the Moon’s South Pole. The lunar lander is on its side about 820 feet from the intended landing site, Mons Mouton. In the center of the image between the two lander legs is the Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment 1 suite, which shows the drill deployed. Credit: Intuitive Machines

 March 8, 2025  

By Eurasia Review

Shortly after touching down inside a crater on the Moon, carrying NASA technology and science on its IM-2 mission, Intuitive Machines collected some data for the agency before calling an early end of mission at 12:15 a.m. CST Friday.

As part of the company’s second Moon delivery for NASA under the agency’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative and Artemis campaign, the IM-2 mission included a drill to bring lunar soil to the surface and a mass spectrometer to look for the presence of volatiles, or gases, that could one day help provide fuel or breathable oxygen to future Artemis explorers.

Planned to land at Mons Mouton, IM-2 touched down at approximately 11:30 a.m. March 6, more than 1,300 feet (400 meters) from its intended landing site. Intuitive Machines said images collected later confirmed the lander was on its side, preventing it from fully operating the drill and other instruments before its batteries were depleted.

The IM-2 mission landed closer to the lunar South Pole than any previous lander.

“Our targeted landing site near the lunar South Pole is one of the most scientifically interesting, and geographically challenging locations, on the Moon,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator for science at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Each success and setback are opportunities to learn and grow, and we will use this lesson to propel our efforts to advance science, exploration, and commercial development as we get ready for human exploration of Mars.”

The Nova-C lander, named Athena, captured and transmitted images of the landing site before activating the technology and science instruments. Among the data collected, NASA’s PRIME-1 (Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment 1) suite, which includes the lunar drill known as TRIDENT (The Regolith and Ice Drill for Exploring New Terrain), successfully demonstrated the hardware’s full range of motion in the harsh environment of space. The Mass Spectrometer Observing Lunar Operations (MSOLO) as part of the PRIME-1 suite of instruments, detected elements likely due to the gases emitted from the lander’s propulsion system. 

“While this mission didn’t achieve all of its objectives for NASA, the work that went into the payload development is already informing other agency and commercial efforts,” said Clayton Turner, associate administrator for space technology, NASA Headquarters. “As we continue developing new technologies to support exploration of the Moon and Mars, testing technologies in-situ is crucial to informing future missions. The CLPS initiative remains an instrumental method for achieving this.”

Despite the lander’s configuration, Intuitive Machines, which was responsible for launch, delivery, and surface operations under its CLPS contract, was able to complete some instrument checkouts and collect 250 megabytes of data for NASA.

“Empowering American companies to deliver science and tech to the Moon on behalf of NASA both produces scientific results and continues development of a lunar economy,” said Joel Kearns, deputy associate administrator for Exploration in the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters. “While we’re disappointed in the outcome of the IM-2 mission, we remain committed to supporting our commercial vendors as they navigate the very difficult task of landing and operating on the Moon.”

NASA’s Laser Retroreflector Array, a passive instrument meant to provide a reference point on the lunar surface and does not power on, will remain affixed to the top deck of the lander. Although Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C Hopper and Nokia’s 4G/LTE Tipping Point technologies, funded in part by NASA, were only able to complete some objectives, they provided insight into maturing technologies ready for infusion into a commercial space application including some checkouts in flight and on the surface.

Intuitive Machines’ IM-2 mission launched at 6:16 p.m., Feb. 26, aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Launch Complex 39A at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

Intuitive Machines has two more deliveries on the books for NASA in the future, with its IM-3 mission slated for 2026, and IM-4 mission in 2027.

To date, five vendors have been awarded a total of 11 lunar deliveries under CLPS and are sending more than 50 instruments to various locations on the Moon, including the Moon’s far side and South Pole region. CLPS contracts are indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contracts with a cumulative maximum contract value of $2.6 billion through 2028.

Eurasia Review is an independent Journal that provides a venue for analysts and experts to disseminate content on a wide-range of subjects that are often overlooked or under-represented by Western dominated media.

WWIII

Philippine Politics And Conflict Management With China In The South China Sea – Analysis

 March 10, 2025  

By Aaron Jed Rabena

Not long after the formation of a grand political alliance between the Duterte and Marcos clans for the 2022 Philippine national elections, the united front has collapsed and a war of words has become the new normal between the warring camps, with each side accumulating political ammunition to use against the other—locally and internationally. The foundations of the Duterte family’s alignment with the Marcoses go back to August 2016, when then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ordered the transfer of the remains of the current president’s father, former president Ferdinand Marcos Sr., to the Heroes’ Cemetery—an act no Philippine president had ever dared to perform, given the longstanding debate over whether the late president was a hero or a dictator. Yet, Duterte did not mind risking his political capital to finally put the divisive issue to rest, and the Marcos family was extremely grateful. One could argue that it was the “Duterte magic” that helped Marcos Jr. win the presidency in 2022 because when he ran for vice president in 2016—prior to his alliance with the Dutertes—he lost to Leni Robredo. 

Noticeably, when Marcos Jr. ran for president in 2022, he won on a ticket with Rodrigo’s daughter, Sara Duterte, as his vice-president. By bandwagoning with the Dutertes, Marcos Jr. benefited from the legitimacy of a sitting president who is said to have been the most popular outgoing Filipino president. Since there is no such thing as a free lunch, the likely quid pro quo for the Dutertes would be for Sara to be the next in line for the presidency in 2028. However, fissures started to emerge early on, as Marcos Jr. did not give in to Sara’s desire to head the Defense department, instead appointing her as Education Secretary. Sara’s sense of entitlement likely stems from the fact that the Marcos family is indebted to her family for what they did to Marcos Sr. In July 2022, a new variable was introduced into the Philippine political landscape when Marcos Jr.’s cousin, Martin Romualdez, was elected as House Speaker, though he is said to have ambitions for even higher office.

Consequently, Duterte ally and former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was removed from her position as Senior Deputy House Speaker for an alleged attempt to stage a coup against the House Speaker. Congress afterward launched an investigation into the allocation of confidential funds to Sara as Vice President and Education Secretary. Besides taking a different approach on the war on drugs, the Marcos Jr. Administration has started to dangle possible cooperation with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in relation to former president Duterte’s drug war excesses which could lead to the former president’s arrest. Duterte retaliated by calling the House “corrupt” and President Marcos Jr. a “drug addict.” The Marcos Jr. government also tried to dismantle the media platform of the Dutertes, SMNI, by arresting its leader on criminal charges. In addition to this, Sara is being threatened with impeachment.

Crucially, concurrent with these dramatic domestic episodes, geopolitical tensions were rising between the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea (SCS). For instance, there was a rocket debris incident in November 2022 in which the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) forcibly seized space debris from one of its rocket launches from the Philippine Navy. A month after Marcos Jr.’s state visit to China in February 2023, a CCG vessel pointed a military-grade laser at a Philippine vessel on a Rotation and Resupply (RORE) mission to Second Thomas Shoal—a maritime feature where the Philippines has a grounded commissioned naval vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre. By April 2023, the Philippines and US governments had announced an expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites from five to nine. In September of that same year, Rodrigo Duterte met with PRC President Xi Jinping in Beijing for confidence-building talks, although collisions at sea ensued in the following months. March 2024 became a critical moment for the Philippines because the CCG unleashed its strongest watercannon assault on a Philippine resupply boat, injuring four Philippine Navy sailors.

Disagreeing with the Marcos Jr. government’s approach of allegedly escalating tensions with China, the Duterte camp, through former presidential spokesperson Harry Roque, publicized that a “gentleman’s agreement” with China on Second Thomas Shoal had been reached during Duterte’s watch, which was affirmed by the Chinese Embassy. Duterte himself also began accusing Marcos Jr. of being “pro-US.” For Marcos Jr., Duterte’s commitment to China was a secret agreement, while Sara faced criticism from oppositionists for not being as vocal as other high-ranking officials in condemning China’s SCS actions. Unsurprisingly, the House initiated an investigation into the so-called gentleman’s agreement. China also became stricter to the point of seizing air-dropped supplies for soldiers stationed on Second Thomas Shoal.

Pattern of scrutiny

In Philippine politics, there is a recurring pattern: when a president is succeeded by an opposition figure, the controversial actions of the previous administration often come under scrutiny. This was seen when then-President Benigno Aquino III disparaged Arroyo’s dealings with China (i.e., NBN-ZTE broadband project and NorthRail project). This pattern is now evident in how Marcos Jr. addresses issues related to the Dutertes. Against this backdrop, the worst and most dangerous encounter between the Philippines and China took place on June 17, 2024, when a melee resulted in a Filipino sailor losing his thumb after his vessel was rammed by the CCG, drawing widespread international condemnation. A month after the incident, China and the Philippines, through the 9th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM), agreed on a “provisional agreement” which was welcomed even by Washington. In fact, contrary to what critics say, China and the Philippines have continued to engage beyond the BCM, with President Marcos meeting President Xi on the sidelines of the 2023 APEC Summit, and in early 2024, Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Secretary Enrique Manalo and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holding direct phone discussions.

While both the “gentleman” and “provisional” agreements share the objectives of de-escalating tensions with Beijing while resisting China’s hard-power pressure, differences can be found in terms of political environment, modality, and diplomatic semantics. First, during Duterte’s tenure, the political deal with China was widely perceived to be disadvantageous to the Philippines because of his submissive rhetoric on China. This made it easier for people to allege that his agreement with China was in violation of the Constitution. But under Marcos, the political posture is assertive and principled. These disparate approaches impress upon the public whether the government is negotiating from a position of strength or weakness.

Second, with the gentleman’s agreement, the compromise was done in private and informally. Under this agreement, China will permit the Philippines to conduct RORE missions provided that prior notification is given, only essential supplies (e.g., food, water, medicines) are transported, and operations should be limited to one Coast Guard vessel and one civilian vessel. To ensure the continuation of this arrangement post-Duterte, China reportedly spoke directly to Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, the Commander of the Western Command (WESCOM), which is the unit of the Armed Forces of the Philippines responsible for the South China Sea. China bypassing the DFA underscores Beijing’s preference for a backdoor approach. Significantly, Admiral Carlos had served as WESCOM chief during Duterte’s administration, making him a familiar figure to the Chinese in these dealings. This is similar to when China, through its defense attaché in Manila, was willing to work with an appointed backchannel negotiator, then-Senator Antonio Trillanes, during the Aquino III Administration, to defuse the ongoing standoff at Scarborough Shoal in 2012.

Shady agreements

According to China, the Philippines upended the status quo in February 2023 when Manila reversed Duterte’s China-friendly policies by bringing in construction materials to shore up the dilapidated BRP Sierra Madre. China maintains that they recorded a conversation with Admiral Carlos indicating that higher-ups in the Philippine defense and security establishment were aware of the arrangement. In fact, this issue gave rise to two other gentleman’s agreements. China claims that a gentleman’s agreement was also reached in Scarborough Shoal with Duterte where China allowed small-scale fishing around the Shoal but restricted access by Philippine military and coast guard assets to the 12-nautical mile territorial waters. China also contends that in the 1990s, the Philippines said that it would tow away the beached LST-542-class tank landing ship (BRP Sierra Madre). But for the Philippines, as far as gentleman’s agreements are concerned, it was China that reneged on the agreement for mutual withdrawal of vessels in Scarborough Shoal in 2012.

In contrast to the gentleman’s agreement, the provisional agreement was done transparently and formally by the DFA, with the same issuing a statement that Manila had reached a consensus with Beijing that will not prejudice “respective national positions.” Third, since there was no joint statement on the provisional agreement, both parties came up with their individual statements. China insists that, like the gentleman’s agreement, it will allow RORE missions provided there is prior notice and “on-site verification,” but the PRC will resolutely oppose the delivery of “large-scale” construction materials meant for building “fixed facilities” or a “permanent outpost.”

The Philippines rejects “prior coordination,” as it connotes consent, and instead says that there will only be an “exchange of information.” Regardless of nomenclature, and despite the absence of an explicit statement allowing the Philippines to make repairs to the BRP Sierra Madre, Philippine RORE missions have been successful since this time, and are no longer being harassed.

Furthermore, China only prohibits “large scale” repairs, and the Philippines will likely not compromise maintaining the ship as the inability to repair it will eventually lead to its collapse and the loss of the Philippine’s claim to the shoal. Overall, this provides a contextual clue that what is said in public may differ from what happens behind closed doors. Despite this, some quarters demand a publication of the details of the agreement.

The current Duterte-Marcos rift is a domestic struggle for power. Both parties’ political strategies and tools employed foreign policy issues to strike at the other, but incumbent Marcos Jr. has the advantage of political power—commanding not just the bully pulpit but the machinery of the state. Due to the two families’ diverging value systems and opposing stances toward China and the United States, it appears that the great powers have their proxies in the Philippines. Additionally, because of Marcos Jr.’s disagreements with the Dutertes over policy, he has indirectly allied himself with the liberal opposition which, to some extent, props up his political capital. Marcos Jr. has also demonstrated that striking a deal with China is possible without being defeatist or fatalistic. While a provisional agreement was reached regarding Second Thomas Shoal, workable arrangements in other maritime hotspots such as Sabina Shoal and Scarborough Shoal are also needed for broader regional stability. Philippine leaders worry that we might see a repetition of the precedents set in Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal, where China had carried out land reclamation, established unilateral control, and denied the Philippines fishing rights access

This article was published at Strategic Vision vol. 13, no. 61 (December, 2024)

Aaron Jed Rabena is an Assistant Professor at the Asian Center in the University of the Philippines.