Saturday, February 21, 2026

 

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

President Donald Trump seems to think he is King of the World, not just the United States. Even as he convenes his “Board of Peace” (“Board of Imperial Conquest” would be more apt) it looks like the US will soon illegally attack Iran, again, as it did last June. Congress needs to do its job representing the will of the American people, get a spine, step up to its Constitutional duty over matters of war and peace, and stop him.  

The US has attacked seven countries (eight if one includes the US of A, and most people in Minneapolis and many other cities surely think so) since Trump’s recrudescence. Ongoing talks with Iran do not appear to be promising, with unrealistic US demands, especially zero nuclear energy enrichment by Tehran and the dismantling of its missile program, which would leave it vulnerable to further Israeli attacks. Trump’s “beautiful armada” including two aircraft carrier battle groups with supporting attack aircraft is the largest US military buildup in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. 

This massive (and expensive) deployment of forces is exactly what one does in planning for a large-scale military offensive against Iran, just as the region begins the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. This would go far beyond the more limited strikes that have taken place in the past, including last June’s attack that killed 1,000 people. “It harkens back to what I saw ahead of the 2003 Iraq war,” said retired Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, a senior fellow and military expert at Defense Priorities. “You don’t assemble this kind of power to send a message. In my view, this is what you do when you’re preparing to use it. What I see on the diplomatic front is just to try to keep things rolling until it’s time to actually launch the military operation.”

Lest anyone forget, this crisis is all of Trump’s making, as he abrogated the multilateral agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, negotiated under President Barack Obama, which effectively and verifiably capped Iran’s nuclear program well short of the ability to build The Bomb.

Trump should not have the last word on whether to attack Iran again. Next week, the House of Representatives will hold a vote on H. Con. Res. 38, the Iran War Powers Resolution, according to the measure’s co-sponsor US Rep Ro Khanna (D-CA). US Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) is the other lead sponsor, and the only Republican on the resolution at present, but a vote could be close, if mostly partisan. Just a few Republican votes could make the difference. 

There is no news on a Senate vote at this time, though there is a companion resolution, S. J. Res 104, introduced by Senators Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Rand Paul (R-KY). Should the House resolution pass, the Senate vote might ensue quickly, as time is of the essence. 

In a recent Quinnipiac poll, 70% of American voters said they oppose military action against Iran. It is time for Congress to fulfill its Constitutional authority and vote to require authorization of any military action against Iran. 

It is no surprise the majority of Americans oppose a war with Iran. Similarly, most Iranians oppose a military strike on their country. Now, it’s up to us to demand that Congress do its job and pull us back from the precipice of another disastrous war. Concerned individuals should call their US Representative via the Congressional switchboard at 202.224.3121, or 833-STOP-WAR.

Also, on Monday at 2:30pm ET/11:30am PT, peace and constitution-loving people can join a virtual Action Hour on Zoom, where we’ll mobilize together to demand Congress stop this unauthorized war before it starts.

The National Iranian American Council Action (NIAC) is organizing this event, co-sponsored by Peace Action & MPower Action, to equip you with immediate action you can take to urge lawmakers to oppose war and stand with the American and Iranian people. We will also be offering a brief “How to Advocate” 101 training to empower you to get face-to-face meetings with your lawmaker’s office.

Click here to sign up and join us! 

It’s getting late, but it’s not yet too late, to stop another illegal war of aggression.Email

Kevin Martin serves as the president of Peace Action, the country’s largest grassroots peace and disarmament organization with over 200,000 supporters nationwide. He also convenes the CeaseFire Now Grassroots Network.

Jeremy Scahill: Despite Ongoing Talks, Trump Admin Is “Obsessed” with Destroying Iran

Source: Democracy Now!


Despite chairing the first meeting of his newly formed Board of Peace on Thursday, President Donald Trump continues to threaten war against Iran as the Pentagon positions a massive fighting force in the Middle East. Trump said he would give Tehran about two weeks to reach a deal on its nuclear program, but media reports indicate that he could launch an attack within days. Iran maintains its nuclear enrichment program is for peaceful civilian purposes.

Journalist Jeremy Scahill says Trump already “used the veneer” of negotiations to attack Iran last year, and that despite ongoing talks between the two countries, he has essentially already decided to launch a new war that could quickly spiral out of control.

“I’ve been told by military experts who spent decades working in the Pentagon that there’s a spirit of delusion that has just taken hold in the administration,” says Scahill. “You have elements here who are absolutely obsessed with Iran and destroying the Islamic Revolution.”


Transcript

This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now!Democracynow.org, the War and Peace Report. I’m Amy Goodman.

President Trump is continuing to threaten to attack Iran as the U.S. expands its massive military presence in the Middle East. On Thursday, Trump said he would give Iran 10 to 15 days to reach a new nuclear deal.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: They cannot continue to threaten the stability of the entire region. And they must make a deal. Or if that doesn’t happen—I maybe can understand; If it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen. But bad things will happen if it doesn’t.

AMY GOODMAN: The Pentagon has amassed an immense strike force of aircraft and warships in the largest military buildup in the region since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Earlier this week, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, passed through the Strait of Gibraltar on its way to join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Persian Gulf. The USS Gerald Ford had been stationed in the Caribbean when the U.S. attacked Venezuela and abducted its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife.

Trump’s threats to attack Iran came during the inaugural meeting of the so-called Board of Peace, Trump’s new initiative to create an alternative to the U.N. On Tuesday, U.S. and Iranian negotiators held indirect talks in Geneva and left without a clear resolution. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes.

To talk about all of this and more, we are joined by Jeremy Scahill, co-founder of Drop Site News, his latest piece, ‘This is Not a Dress Rehearsal’: U.S. Engaged in Massive Military Buildup as Threat To Bomb Iran Grows. Jeremy, lay out your findings.

JEREMY SCAHILL: Amy, what I have been hearing from sources is that Donald Trump has been running around for some time saying that he wants to be known as the American president that forever ended the Islamic revolution in Iran. He has even, I am told by sources, been saying that he wants to complete this before the midterm elections.

And so part of what we have seen is that Trump, who ripped up the original nuclear agreement with Iran that was signed in 2015 under President Obama, is that he has used the veneer of engaging in negotiations with Iran as cover to launch more strikes. That was the case last June when the United States and Israel waged a 12-day massive bombing campaign that killed more than 1,000 Iranians.

Now we are in the process of Trump saying—I was told a couple of days ago that Trump had made clear to the Iranians that they had two weeks to come back with what amounted to a pretty sweeping capitulation to his demands. The Iranian foreign minister this morning said that the U.S. has not formally demanded zero enrichment. But what I understand is that the Iranians have been told that the issue of their ballistic missile supply and reducing it dramatically has to be on the table and also their support for regional resistance movements.

Remember, Iran is the only actual nation-state—with the exception of Ansarallah, the Houthis in Yemen—that has launched any sort of attacks against Israel in response to the genocide in Gaza. The Israelis have been empowered by both President Biden, when he was in office, and Donald Trump to wage these sweeping wars across the Middle East.

And so, what we are looking at right now is the Trump strategy is either we force them into capitulation and we make a deal that is entirely on Trump’s terms, or—and if they make that kind of a deal that would eliminate a large capacity of the ballistic missile system, the Iranians basically don’t have any deterrence anymore. So I am told that part of Trump’s calculation is, look, if we get them to do that, they don’t really have a state anyway anymore and their days are numbered, because it would make them much more susceptible to Israeli attack, not to mention American attack. But if the Iranians say that their red lines are essentially their self defense, which is their ballistic missile and drone program, then the United States is poised to attack.

There’s two potential scenarios here. One could be that we see some form of initial limited-scale attack that the United States may think would quote-unquote “soften the Iranians,” and if they don’t come back with capitulation then you wage a much wider war. I am told by sources who are in direct contact with military planners and others that in the bigger picture, the U.S. is looking at two possible scenarios. One would be the Libya scenario where you have U.S. airpower that is used to enact regime change and then you allow chaos and civil war to brew on the ground.

Or, you have something that they’re comparing to a Venezuela scenario. It doesn’t mean that they would try to kidnap Ayatollah Khomeini, the supreme leader, or senior Iranian officials. It means that they would try to decapitate the leadership and then make some sort of a deal with lower echelons within the Iranian state akin to what is happening now in Venezuela, where you have American oil companies coming in and the Venezuelan authorities doing essentially what Marco Rubio and Donald Trump order them to do.

At the same time, I have been told by military experts who spent decades working in the Pentagon that there is a spirit of delusion that has just taken hold in the administration. That a lot of the decisions being made now are not tactical decisions; They have to do with politics and Donald Trump’s ego and wanting to be known as the man who forever smashed the Islamic Revolution.

So, there’s no doubt about it, the U.S. is on the verge of some form of military action. It remains possible that the Iranians are going to try to thread the needle. The foreign minister and others say that they are working on a draft to come back with what the U.S. demanded in Geneva and in Oman before that. But it is a very dire situation.

And if the U.S. does launch a larger-scale attack, I am told that probably what they would try to do is a blitzkrieg to knock out as much of Iran’s offensive military capability as possible alongside its air defenses, hit command-and-control centers, try to blow up naval assets. Then the question becomes, what kind of response can the Iranians offer? In the past, they have calibrated their strikes. They have intentionally not tried to kill large numbers of American troops. They showed a capacity to defeat Iron Dome in Israel. Their hypersonic missile certainly are advanced and they’re very strong. They do have an ability at this moment to do significant damage to Israel if they want to and also to attack oil infrastructure, potentially close the Strait of Hormuz.

But all of that sort of assumes that the Iranian missile capability is not severely damaged in an opening massive U.S. strike, and that’s very big wild card here. The Iranians said they are not going to calibrate anymore. They’re not good to do backdoor choreography if the U.S. attacks. They view it as an existential war for the Islamic Revolution and the existence of the independence of Iran’s state.

AMY GOODMAN: Jeremy, you talked about political reasons that could be why President Trump is ramping up against Iran right now. Could that have to do, interestingly enough, with Epstein? You have the former prince who has been arrested. Trump cannot, no matter how hard he tries, get this off the front pages of the newspapers in the United States even though co-conspirators and he himself are not being gone after by the Justice Department according to the Attorney General. But Britain is doing it. That no matter what he does, this is extremely threatening.

What we saw over New Year’s is President Trump moving that USS Gerald Ford, the largest aircraft carrier, next to Venezuela. This is when the headlines were dominated in December by Epstein, and he attacks and abducts the Venezuelan president. Now he brings the same aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, to join the USS Abraham Lincoln. The cost of maintaining this armada near Iran, are you scared that this is what is driving him?

JEREMY SCAHILL: Also, on that issue of the Gerald Ford, this is a crew that has been in a heavy rotation. Normally, there would need to be maintenance on that aircraft carrier. There would need to be troop rotation. To send them to the region is a very clear indication that the U.S. has on the table a very serious intent to strike Iran. When I saw that the Gerald Ford was getting moved from the Western Hemisphere to the Eastern Hemisphere and looked at some of the troop rotation and maintenance issues, that is a very ominous sign.

But to your broader point about Epstein, the Iranians have started referring to themselves as being at war with the “Epstein regime,” the kind of coalition of nations that are amassing alongside Trump right now in their posture in the world and with Donald Trump himself being one of the main suspects in this entire thing. Certainly, the “wag the dog” scenario is an element here. Donald Trump is at great exposure because of the Epstein files no matter how many lies he wants to tell or how often he tries to distract from it. That certainly is a factor here.

But I wouldn’t underestimate the degree to which you have elements of this administration right now—it is very different in several core ways from Trump 1. You have elements here who are absolutely obsessed with Iran and destroying the Islamic Revolution. That is not something to be understated. And Trump, I’m told, is walking around constantly bringing up that he wants to forever be the president that changed these regimes in the world. I mean, you can talk about Cuba in a different program, but that’s the vibe right now. It’s like the resurrection of the Dulles in the early stages of the CIA world view that the United States is just going to be toppling regimes around the world.

So, while I think the Epstein part of it is a convenient element for what Trump is doing, I think they are dead-set on trying to change the Iranian regime or force them into a capitulation that would forever weaken the existence of Iran as an independent state.

AMY GOODMAN: Didn’t President Obama work a nuclear deal with Iran that President Trump pulled out of?

JEREMY SCAHILL: Yeah. [laughs] You know, Amy, what’s incredible too is that Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, War Secretary Hegseth all said after the June strikes that they had completely and totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. Let’s remember, though, that beginning in late 2003, according to even current U.S. intelligence assessments, Iran had ended its nuclear weapons program. There was a fatwa issued by the supreme leader decades ago that said that it was forbidden to use or possess weapons of mass destruction.

Now, you can say, oh, that’s just propaganda, that’s just lies. But the reality is, if you talk to Iranians—I recently met with a former senior Iranian diplomat who helped to negotiate that 2015 deal and he said that what the U.S. is doing right now is actually helping the camp within Iran that says it was a grave mistake that we ended that program. So, there’s that element to it.

But I think what we are looking at right now is that you have this kind of neocon ideology that despite all of Trump’s rhetoric about hating the neocons and saying the Iraq War was a catastrophic mistake, Trump seems dead-set on sort of legacy work here and regime change in Iran.

The question here, Amy, is if the United States does attack and if it’s true what the Iranians are saying—that they’re not going to calibrate strikes anymore—I was told by one well-connected Iranian that he has heard talk of wanting to kill at least 500 American service members in retaliatory strikes.
Donald Trump has never had to endure a mass-casualty incident as president, of American soldiers or American personnel. The question then becomes, what does Trump do if the Iranians are able to successfully strike military bases or other areas where there are large numbers of Americans? There are tens of thousands of Americans positioned in the Gulf right now. This is a very, very dangerous scenario that we are facing right now.Email

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Jeremy Scahill has reported from Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Nigeria, the former Yugoslavia, and elsewhere across the globe. Scahill has served as the national security correspondent for The Nation and Democracy Now!. Scahill's work has sparked several congressional investigations and won some of journalism’s highest honors. He was twice awarded the prestigious George Polk Award, in 1998 for foreign reporting and in 2008 for “Blackwater.” Scahill is a producer and writer of the award-winning film “Dirty Wars,” which premiered at the 2013 Sundance Film Festival and was nominated for an Academy Award.



Iran Crisis Exposes the Impotence of

America’s Neoliberal War Machine

After some delays, the United States is dispatching a second aircraft-carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, from the Caribbean to the Middle East to join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and threaten Iran.

This is the third Atlantic crossing for the Ford’s crew since it set sail from Norfolk, Virginia, in June 2025, and the second time its deployment has been extended, first to redeploy from the Middle East to the Caribbean, and now to redeploy back to the Middle East.

There is a grave danger that the U.S. government is preparing to exploit the genuine sympathy of people all over the world for the Iranian civilians massacred during protests in December and January as a pretext for an illegal military assault on Iran.

A new US war on Iran would be a cynical and catastrophic escalation of the crisis already swallowing its people, piling the unimaginable death and suffering of a full-scale war on top of many years of economic strangulation under US “maximum pressure” sanctions and the repression of the recent protests.

The world must act to prevent war, and the voices of Americans calling for peace and humanity may have an impact on President Trump and US politicians, in an election year when Americans are already sickened by US complicity in genocide in Gaza and the murderous paramilitaries invading US cities.

In a succession of speeches and in its National Security and Defense Strategy documents, the Trump administration promised a major shift in U.S. foreign policy away from endless wars in the Middle East, to prioritize its ambitions to expand U.S. power and coercion in the Americas and the Pacific.

But Trump is already following in the footsteps of the five US presidents before him, quickly abandoning his formal strategy goals and diverting America’s overpriced but impotent war machine back to the Middle East, to threaten or even attack Iran.

The renewed US threats against Iran have made it clear to Iran’s leaders that their symbolic strikes on Al Udeid air base in Qatar in June 2025, in retaliation for US strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran, were an insufficient deterrent to future US and Israeli attacks.

So Iran has signaled that it will respond to any new Israeli or U.S. attacks with more deadly and destructive retaliation against US forces in the region. Foad Azadi at the University of Tehran reports that Iranian leaders now believe they would need to inflict at least 500 US casualties to successfully deter future attacks.

Iran’s leaders may well be right that Trump would have a low tolerance for US casualties and the political blowback he would suffer for them, if he should make the fateful choice to launch such an unnecessary and catastrophic war.

Iran has had many years to prepare for such a war. It has modern air defenses and an arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones with which to retaliate against US targets throughout the region, which include US bases in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, and the flotilla of US warships loitering near, but not yet within range of, Iran’s shores.

The US is so far showing respect for Iran’s military capabilities, keeping the Abraham Lincoln at least a thousand miles from Iran’s coast, according to retired US Colonel Larry Wilkerson of the Eisenhower Media Network.

This cautious US naval deployment is a far cry from the six US carrier battle groups the US deployed to commit aggression against Iraq in 2003. The United States still has twelve “big-deck” aircraft carriers like the Lincoln and the Ford, but nine of them are in dock or unready for deployment. The USS George Washington, based in Japan, is now the only US carrier in East Asia, since the Abraham Lincoln left the Philippines in January to threaten Iran.

Standard deployments for these warships last only six or seven months, and their lack of readiness is the result of several years of overextended deployments, after which they need longer periods of maintenance and repair than the normal six to nine month turnaround time between deployments.

For example, since the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower completed a nine month combat deployment in the Middle East in January 2025, it has spent over a year in dock at Norfolk to repair the wear and tear it sustained in the failed US campaign against Yemen’s Ansar Allah (or Houthi) forces.

The United States and its allies bombed Yemen in successive campaigns under Biden and Trump, but failed to reopen the Red Sea and Suez Canal to Israeli or allied commercial shipping. As a result of the Yemeni blockade, most Western cargo shippers diverted their ships away from the Red Sea, forcing the Israeli port of Eilat into bankruptcy in July 2025.

Ansar Allah paused its blockade when Israel signed a ceasefire in Gaza in October 2025, but larger ships still avoid the Red Sea and insurance rates remain high, as Israel’s aggression and genocide continue to destabilize the region in unpredictable ways.

The US failure to defeat the much smaller Ansar Allah forces in Yemen is a small taste of what US forces would face in a prolonged war with Iran, which already inflicted significant damage on Israel during the twelve-day war in June 2025.

Iran used its older missiles and drones to deplete Israel’s air defenses. Then, once Israel began to exhaust its stocks of interceptors, Iran used newer, more sophisticated ballistic missiles to strike important military and intelligence headquarters in Tel Aviv and other military targets.

With Israel in trouble, the US entered the war directly, and bombed three nuclear enrichment sites in Iran, before agreeing to an Iranian ceasefire proposal on June 24, 2025. Israeli censorship has prevented a comprehensive public accounting of its losses in that war.

While overextended deployments have caused wear and tear to aircraft-carriers and other warships, US weapons transfers to its allies in Israel, Ukraine and NATO have depleted its own weapons stocks. This creates pressure on US leaders to hold off on launching a new war against a well-prepared enemy like Iran until it has replenished them, which could take a long time.

Meanwhile the war in Ukraine has exposed structural weaknesses in the US war machine. Russia has vastly out-produced the west in basic war supplies like artillery shells and drones, which has proven militarily decisive in Ukraine.

As Richard Connolly of the RUSI military think tank in London has pointed out, Russia did not privatize its weapons industry after the end of the Cold War, as the US and its allies did. It maintained and improved its existing infrastructure, which he called “economically inefficient until 2022, and then suddenly it looks like a very shrewd bit of planning.”

After the Cold War ended, on the initiative of Soviet leader and visionary peacemaker Mikhail Gorbachev, Russia’s economic weakness forced its military leaders to make honest, hard-nosed assessments of what it would take to defend their country in the post-Cold War world, and the shrewd planning that Connolly put his finger on is one result of this.

On the US side however, Eisenhower’s infamous “military-industrial complex” used its “unwarranted influence” to exploit the west’s post-Cold War triumphalism and expand its global military ambitions. Many Americans immediately recognized this as a dangerous new form of imperialism. Wiser heads among America’s political leaders and foreign policy experts predicted that the rest of the world would ultimately reject America’s new imperialism and be forced to confront it as a threat to peace.

The neoliberal privatization of US and western armament production turned it into an even more lucrative and politically powerful industry, which only reconfirmed Eisenhower’s warnings. Monopolistic military contractors have produced smaller quantities of increasibgly expensive, technologically advanced warships, warplanes and surveillance systems. Despite wreaking catastrophic destruction in country after country, these weapons have proven impotent to prevent humiliating US defeats in its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Ukraine, and will likely prove just as useless in a major war with Iran.

The simplistic, linear thinking of Trump and his advisors leads them to believe that the solution to a trillion dollar per year war machine that can’t win a war is a $1.5 trillion per year war machine.

But this is nonsense. Russia has not defeated the US and NATO by outspending them. Quite the opposite. Since 1992, the US military alone has outspent Russia by fifteen to one ($26 trillion vs $1.7 trillion in constant 2024 dollars, according to SIPRI). Russia’s military superiority is the result of taking its own defense more seriously and confronting its problems more honestly than corrupt US leaders have ever tried to do since the end of the Cold War.

At a price tag of $17.5 billion, the USS Gerald R. Ford is the largest, most expensive warship ever built, costing more than the entire annual military budgets of most other countries. Making an even bigger warship for $26 billion would not make Americans any safer, just a bit poorer.

Relying on the offensive use of military force and record military spending to try to solve America’s problems has put the United States on a collision course with the rest of the world. In 1949, long before Eisenhower’s farewell speech in 1961, he offered some sage advice to politicians and pundits who were calling for a massive US attack on the USSR to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

“Those who measure security solely in terms of offensive capacity distort its meaning and mislead those who pay them heed,” said Eisenhower. “No modern nation has ever equaled the crushing offensive power attained by the German war machine in 1939. No modern nation was broken and smashed as was Germany six years later.”

Unlike Iran today, the USSR was indeed working to develop nuclear weapons, but Eisenhower warned Americans against launching a new war that might kill millions to try to stop it.

As Eisenhower insisted, offensive military action offers no solutions to international problems. But diplomatic solutions are always possible. Diplomacy does not mean holding a gun to someone’s head and demanding that they sign an unconditional surrender. It means treating other people and countries with mutual respect and finding solutions that everybody can live with, based upon rules that we all agree on.

The UN Charter universally prohibits the threat or use of force and requires all countries to resolve disputes peacefully. So one country’s wrongdoing, real or perceived, is never a valid pretext for another country to threaten or use military force.

There is no good reason to sacrifice American soldiers and sailors in a war on Iran; no justification to kill Iranian troops for defending their country, as Americans would do if another country attacked the United States; no justice in killing Iranian civilians by turning their homes and communities into a new US war zone.

Could the stark choice our country is facing in Iran be a turning point, a moment when the American people will stand up and clearly, strongly say “No” to war, before our corrupt leaders can plunge Iran and the United States into yet another “Made in the USA” military catastrophe?

Nicolas J. S. Davies is an independent journalist, a researcher for CODEPINK and the author of Blood on Our Hands: The American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq. He is also the co-author, with Medea Benjamin, of War In Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, which just came out in a new revised, updated 2nd edition. Read other articles by Nicolas.

Peeling Back the US Information Operation in Iran

by  | Feb 19, 2026 

As part of the US campaign to engineer a regime change in Iran, the US military and intelligence community are using Operational Preparation of the Environmnet aka OPE. OPE is defined in joint publications (e.g., JP 3-05 Special Operations) as non-intelligence activities conducted prior to or in preparation for potential military operations to set conditions for success. It encompasses shaping the operational environment through intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, information operations, civil affairs, psychological operations, and other preparatory actions—often in denied or politically sensitive areas.

I believe that one of the major OPE efforts is to convince the US public that the overwhelming majority of Iranians despise the Islamic Republic and want it overthrown. In my opinion, a major player in this OPE is a polling outfit known as GAMAANGAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran) collaborates with Psiphon VPN, which is widely used across Iran. GAMAAN findings have been consistent in painting a picture of massive opposition to the Iranian regime:

According to GAMAAN polls taken prior to 2025, a significant majority of Iranians — around 70% — oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic. The highest level of opposition, 81%, occurred during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising in late 2022. Support for “the principles of the Islamic revolution and the Supreme Leader” has decreased from 18% in 2022 to 11% in 2024. Opposition to the Islamic Republic is higher among the youth, urban residents, and the highly educated. An overwhelming majority of Iranians (89%) support democracy. Gamaan

Only about 20% of Iranians support the continuation of the Islamic Republic. When asked about preferred alternatives, about 26% favor a secular republic and around 21% support a monarchy. For 11%, the specific form of the alternative system doesn’t matter. About 22% report lacking sufficient information to choose an alternative system.

But what are the funding sources for GAMAAN and Psiphon VPN? Let’s start with GAMAANGAMAAN describes itself as an independent, non-profit research foundation registered in the Netherlands. It emphasizes its academic credentials (e.g., founded by scholars at Dutch universities like Tilburg and Utrecht) and innovative online methods (e.g., anonymity sampling via VPNs like Psiphon) to overcome self-censorship in authoritarian contexts.

GAMAAN operates under the supervision of a board including Dr. Ammar Maleki (founder and director), assistant professor of comparative politics at Tilburg University, and Dr. Pooyan Tamimi Arab, associate professor of secular and religious studies at Utrecht University. Maleki is an assistant professor of Comparative Politics and a self-described activist for democracy in his native Iran. Tilburg University Critically, he does not hide his political stance — his Tilburg University profile explicitly states that he is “a pro-democracy activist and political analyst of Iranian politics” and that he tries “to have an impact on political debates around democratization of Iran.”

This is where the picture becomes more contested. GAMAAN has relied on US government-funded VPN provider Psiphon to disseminate its surveys; collaborated with the USAID-funded Tony Blair Institute; and collaborated with and received funding from historian Ladan Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran, which is in turn supported by the US government-funded National Endowment for Democracy (NED).

Psiphon is owned and operated by Psiphon Inc., a Canadian corporation based in Ontario. Psiphon was originally developed by the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto, with version 1.0 launching on December 1, 2006, as open-source software. In early 2007, Psiphon, Inc. was established as a Canadian corporation independent of the Citizen Lab and the University of Toronto.

It has a notable funding history. In 2008, Psiphon, Inc. was awarded sub-grants from the US State Department Internet Freedom program, administered by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. In 2010, Psiphon began providing services to the Broadcasting Board of Governors (US), the US Department of State, and the BBC. More recently, in April 2024, the Open Technology Fund (OTF) announced increased long-term funding for Psiphon, with subsequent OTF awards totaling US$18.54 million for 2024 and US$5.87 million for 2025.

The Open Technology Fund (OTF) is administered by the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), an independent federal agency of the US government. USAGM provides OTF with its primary funding through annual grants, which originate from Congressional appropriations under the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs budget. OTF operates as an independent nonprofit corporation (since 2019) but remains a grantee under USAGM’s oversight and governance, as authorized by Congress (e.g., via the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act).

So while Psiphon Inc. is technically an independent Canadian company, it has historically been substantially funded by the US government and other Western institutions — a fact worth noting given its role as the methodology partner for the GAMAAN polling inside Iran. In other words, it is a cut out that, in my opinion and based on my experience, is supporting a CIA information operation to portray Iran as a country on the precipice of overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

There is an alternative polling database that paints a radically different picture of the mood in Iran with respect to the Islamic Republic… The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland has conducted a separate series of surveys using phone-based methods, which show more moderate results. Their findings from 2023 and 2024 found that about 75% of respondents expect Iran’s constitution and political system to be about the same in ten years, and only 17% agreed with protesters’ calls for the Islamic Republic to be replaced. However, three in five now think the government should not be strict in enforcing Islamic laws, distinctly up from 2018, and support for demands that the government fight corruption has been consistently near-unanimous since 2018.

On the protests themselves, asked in 2024 to think about waves of demonstrations over the past ten years, two thirds say their main objective was to demand that officials pay greater attention to people’s problems, while only one in five think their main objective was to demand greater freedoms or bring about change in Iran’s system of government.

President Pezeshkian, based on the polls from 2024, was viewed favorably by 66% of those polled at the start of his term… and 70% expressed confidence that he would be an honest and trustworthy president, though only a quarter were very confident. Majorities expressed some confidence that he can improve relations with neighboring countries and protect citizens’ freedoms, notably women’s rights, but majorities are not confident that he can lower inflation or improve relations with the West.

There have been no new polls in the wake of Israel’s surprise attack on June 13, 2025. Based on my conversations with both Nima and Professor Marandi, the reaction in Iran has been similar to what happened in the United States in the aftermath of the 9-11 attacks… National unity increased.

The failed color revolution launched on December 28, 2025 by the United States and Israel has reinforced support for the Islamic Republic. President Pezeshkian has openly admitted his government’s failures on the economic front and he has taken some steps to institute reforms. A more important development was the signing of the Trilateral Security Agreement with Russia and China at the end of January. Those two countries are now providing more resources and support to stabilize the Iranian government and improve the economic lives of the Iranian people.

Donald Trump’s threats to attack Iran are backfiring among the majority of the population in Iran. Yes, there are some Iranians who still want to bring an end to the Islamic Republic, but they are dramatically outnumbered. Remember the boost in popularity that George W Bush enjoyed in the aftermath of 9-11? He even picked up support from Democrats who had previously despised him. That same phenomena has happened in Iran. Prior to the June 13, 2025 attack, Iranians under the age of 50 had no vivid memory of Iran/Iraq war — where Iran was attacked with the encouragement and support of the United States. The June 2025 attack, coupled with the foreign instigated late December 2025 protests and violence, have awakened a new sense of nationalism among the Iranian public that has strengthened support for the Islamic Republic.

The belief in the West that Iran is more vulnerable now than at anytime in the last 46 years is the creation of a US funded propaganda campaign that relied on an ideologically biased pollster to produce results that have been used to convince most Americans that Iran is yearning to breath free… All we have to do is kill off the leadership in Iran.

Reprinted from SONAR21 with permission.

Larry C. Johnson is a former analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. He is the co-owner and CEO of BERG Associates, LLC (Business Exposure Reduction Group).

 GAZA

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

Some wars brutalise, and others erase. Gaza has been erased for the past 3 years. In the crowded, coastal strip of just 140 square kilometres, the detonation of a 2,000-pound MK-84 bomb does more than level concrete, leaving no trace of nearly 3,000 Palestinians. It creates a fireball reaching roughly 3,500 degrees Celsius — about 6,300 degrees Fahrenheit — hot enough to vaporise flesh, liquefy bone and reduce homes to particulate memory. Each bomb costs between US$16,000 and US$25,000. Each weighs nearly a tonne.

Each carries not merely explosive force but a moral question that should trouble the international order.

Investigations have documented the repeated use of US-made MK-84 ‘Hammer’ bombs and other thermobaric munitions in Gaza since October 2023. According to reporting and field analysis cited by regional observers, civil defence teams have identified 2,842 Palestinians who simply disappeared — not buried, not recoverable, but ‘evaporated’ in strikes so intense that only fragments or traces of blood remained. The forensic method was chillingly simple: if four people were registered in a dwelling and only three bodies could be accounted for, the fourth was listed among the vanished.

The scale of destruction defies modern precedent. By early 2026, more than 72,000 Palestinians had reportedly been killed, the majority civilians, including tens of thousands of women and children. Independent assessments suggest the tonnage of explosives dropped on Gaza is comparable to multiple atomic detonations in cumulative effect. The United Nations and humanitarian agencies have described a landscape in which 61 million tonnes of rubble now blanket the territory, its water tables polluted, farmland razed and 97 per cent of trees damaged or destroyed.

Thermobaric weapons, sometimes described as fuel-air explosives, are not prohibited per se under international law. Yet their effects — dispersing a fuel cloud that ignites into a high-temperature vacuum blast — sit uneasily with the core principles of distinction and proportionality embedded in the Geneva Conventions. The International Committee of the Red Cross has cautioned that such weapons should be avoided in populated areas because of their wide-area impact and capacity to cause superfluous suffering. Gaza is among the most densely populated places on earth.

The economic arithmetic is stark. Brown University’s Costs of War project estimates that the United States approved at least US$21.7 billion in military aid and arms transfers to Israel between October 2023 and September 2025. An MK-84 costs roughly the price of a modest car in Sydney. Yet when deployed in Jabalia or Khan Younis, its blast radius does not discriminate between combatant and child. Arms manufacturers profit; strategic alliances are reinforced; political costs are deferred. The human ledger, however, is written in ash.

A June 2024 report by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights examined several emblematic strikes involving 2,000-pound and 1,000-pound bombs on residential buildings, schools and camps, documenting at least 218 fatalities in just six incidents. The High Commissioner warned that the extensive use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects in densely populated areas raised serious concerns of violations of international humanitarian law and could amount to crimes against humanity if found to be part of a widespread or systematic policy.

In January 2024, the International Court of Justice ordered provisional measures requiring Israel to prevent acts of genocide and allow humanitarian assistance into Gaza. The Court noted that many Palestinians lacked access to basic necessities such as food, potable water, electricity, and medical care. Subsequent reporting by Human Rights Watch and others alleged deliberate deprivation of water and essential services. Whether these acts meet the high legal threshold of genocide will ultimately be determined by courts.

What is already clear is that the siege and bombardment have produced conditions of life incompatible with human dignity.

Strategically, the consequences now reach far beyond any single battlefield. The Geneva Academy has warned that global conflicts are straining international humanitarian law to its limits. When powerful states continue arms transfers amid credible allegations of grave breaches, the damage becomes systemic. The rules-based order depends on consistency, not convenience. When standards are applied selectively, faith in legal protection erodes — especially for smaller or vulnerable states. What weakens in one conflict does not stay contained; it echoes outward, normalising impunity and quietly reshaping the global balance toward raw power over principle.

There is also the question of precedent. Urban warfare is not new. From Grozny to Mosul, from Fallujah to Mariupol, cities have been turned into theatres of annihilation. Yet Gaza’s enclosure — sealed borders, limited escape, concentrated population — renders its civilian exposure acute. Military analysts have observed that risk appears to have been shifted away from attacking forces and onto civilians, a choice that may deliver short-term tactical gains while inflicting profound strategic damage.

The Middle East’s economic future cannot be built atop mass graves and pulverised infrastructure. Gaza’s environmental degradation — contaminated aquifers, destroyed sewage systems, toxic dust — will impede reconstruction for years. The United Nations Environment Programme has warned of long-term harm to food and water security. A generation of children has been traumatised. Educational institutions lie in ruins. The social fabric frays under hunger and grief.

For the international community, the challenge is not rhetorical but profoundly moral and structural. A commitment to a rules-based order cannot flicker according to alliances, trade flows or strategic convenience; it must endure precisely when it is most uncomfortable. Arms export controls, end-use monitoring regimes, sanctions frameworks and domestic human rights legislation — whether in Washington, Brussels, London, Ankara, Pretoria or elsewhere — are not sterile bureaucratic instruments. They were built for moments when the heat of war threatens to melt the guardrails of civilisation.

When high-yield munitions worth tens of thousands of dollars are transferred into densely populated territories amid credible allegations of mass civilian harm, the question is no longer technical compliance but collective conscience. Selective enforcement fractures legitimacy. Silence becomes complicity. If powerful states invoke international law in one theatre yet dilute it in another, the architecture of global governance begins to hollow from within.

In an era of rising multipolar tension, climate fragility and proliferating conflicts, the erosion of consistent standards does not remain localised; it radiates outward, emboldening impunity in other capitals and other wars. The credibility of the international system rests not on eloquent speeches at multilateral forums, but on whether states are prepared to suspend arms, condition assistance, and uphold accountability even when doing so carries diplomatic cost. Humanity cannot be defended by exception.

Diplomacy must also re-centre the human. The language of “collateral damage” anaesthetises. When temperatures reach 6,300 degrees Fahrenheit, bodies do not merely perish; they disintegrate. Families are left without remains to bury, without graves to visit, without the elemental rituals that anchor mourning. In such circumstances, reconciliation becomes more elusive, radicalisation more likely, and regional stability more fragile.

No violence justifies the collective punishment of a people. International law exists to shield civilians, not excuse their destruction. When overwhelming force consumes homes and refugee camps, defence dissolves into devastation, and humanity demands protection for the besieged.

History offers sobering lessons. The failure to enforce norms in one theatre often reverberates in another. If the evaporation of nearly 3,000 civilians can be absorbed into diplomatic routine, what restraint remains elsewhere? If siege and starvation become normalised instruments of war, what protection endures for smaller states and vulnerable populations?

Gaza today is more than a battlefield. It is a test — of law, of conscience, of the resilience of a global system that professes to value human life equally. The cost of a single MK-84 may be modest in defence budgets. The cost to the moral architecture of the international order is immeasurable.

The smoke over Gaza is not only the residue of explosives. It is the signal of a world at a crossroads. Whether that signal prompts recalibration or further descent will shape not only the future of Palestinians and Israelis, but the credibility of international law and the stability of regions far beyond the Mediterranean’s edge.Email

Kurniawan Arif Maspul is a researcher and interdisciplinary writer focusing on Islamic diplomacy and Southeast Asian political thought. He holds an MEd in Advanced Teaching, an MBA and an MA in Islamic Studies and is currently pursuing a Master’s in Islamic Banking and Finance at Al-Madinah International University in Malaysia.

 

Source: +972 Magazine

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has relied extensively on Microsoft’s cloud storage and artificial intelligence products while escalating its campaign of mass arrests and deportations in recent months, files obtained by +972 Magazine, Local Call, and The Guardian reveal.

ICE more than tripled the amount of data it holds on Microsoft servers between July 2025 and January 2026, at the same time as the agency’s crackdown on migrants broke new records and sparked mass protests across the United States. Whereas last July the agency was storing around 400 terabytes of data in Microsoft’s cloud platform, Azure, by the end of January that had risen to almost 1,400 terabytes — equivalent to approximately 490 million images.

The leaked documents do not specify the kinds of information stored by ICE on Microsoft servers, but they do indicate that the agency has used Azure to house large amounts of data, in addition to making use of AI tools that search and analyze images and videos.

ICE employs a powerful arsenal of surveillance technology, reportedly using facial recognition software, drones, phone location tracking, mobile spyware, and even tapping school cameras. The leaked documents show ICE is using Microsoft’s AI video analysis tools including Azure AI Video Indexer and Azure Vision, which enable customers to analyze images, read text, and detect certain words, faces, emotions, and objects in audio and video files.

The agency is also understood to have significantly expanded its access to Microsoft’s suite of productivity apps, which include document management tools and an AI chatbot. However, the files do not specify whether ICE’s vast surveillance trove is being stored on Azure, or whether the agency is using the cloud platform for other operations instead, such as running detention centers or coordinating deportation flights

ICE’s recent purchases of cloud and AI services from Microsoft were facilitated by a $75 billion budget increase last July, which made it the highest-funded law enforcement body in the United States. Over the past six months, the agency has also scaled up its consumption of Amazon products, which the Israeli army has also relied on extensively during its onslaught on Gaza.

Last year, +972, Local Call, and The Guardian revealed that Microsoft’s cloud servers were used to store masses of Israeli intelligence on Palestinian civilians in the West Bank and Gaza, which the Israeli army used to plan deadly airstrikes and arrests. The revelations led Microsoft to revoke its cloud services from Unit 8200, Israel’s elite signals intelligence unit that had collected the surveillance data — the first known instance of a tech giant restricting Israel’s access to its services. 

“We do not provide technology to facilitate mass surveillance of civilians,” Brad Smith, Microsoft’s vice chair and president, said in September after the company terminated Unit 8200’s access to Azure. “We have applied this principle in every country around the world.”  

When +972, Local Call, and The Guardian asked whether this applies to U.S. federal agencies, a Microsoft spokesperson stated: “Microsoft does not comment on the operational use of our technology by specific customers. What we can say is that our approach is consistent globally: We prohibit the use of our technology for mass surveillance of civilian populations, require compliance with law and contract, and use internal review mechanisms to assess and address higher‑risk scenarios.”

A contested relationship

Microsoft’s relationship with ICE goes at least as far back as the first Trump administration, when the company’s contracts with the agency sparked outcry among Microsoft employees — particularly after ICE began separating migrant families detained along the U.S.-Mexico border.

At the time, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella emailed staff to note that the company’s “current cloud engagement with [ICE] is supporting legacy mail, calendar, messaging, and document management workload,” with no direct involvement in family separation.

According to Microsoft sources, several employees have in recent months raised concerns internally about ICE’s use of the company’s technology, including by filing internal ethics reports. In December, the company responded to one such report by stating that it does not have any current contracts that “support immigration enforcement.”

A month later, amid ICE’s lethal crackdown in Minnesota, the company sent a second response to employees that clarified its position further: It acknowledged that it has contracts with ICE and DHS, but said it “does not presently maintain AI services contracts tied specifically to enforcement activities.”

Yet the documents obtained by +972, Local Call, and The Guardian raise questions about whether Microsoft technology is facilitating an immigration crackdown by an agency accused of conducting unlawful operations and using excessive force on a large scale.

In response to an inquiry, a Microsoft spokesperson did not dispute the numbers presented in this article, and stated that the company has no visibility over the kind of data ICE is storing on Azure.

“As we’ve previously said, Microsoft provides cloud-based productivity and collaboration tools to DHS and ICE, delivered through our key partners,” the spokesperson said. “Microsoft policies and terms of service do not allow our technology to be used for the mass surveillance of civilians, and we do not believe ICE is engaged in such activity. 

“There currently are many public issues relating to immigration enforcement, and we believe Congress, the executive branch, and the courts have the opportunity to draw clear legal lines regarding the allowable use of emerging technologies by law enforcement.”

ICE did not respond to a request for comment.

Harry Davies of The Guardian contributed to this report.

Austerity And Unrest in Bolivia

Source: Ojalá

One in three of the first 100 days of the new Bolivian government, headed up by Rodrigo Paz and his vice president, Edmand Lara, has passed in a climate of open conflict.

Blockades escalated to the point of paralyzing the country, with mass demonstrations, primarily by mining unions and public school teachers, converging on La Paz, the seat of the executive branch and the center of political power. The tried and true tactic of passing unpopular measures near the end-of-year holidays failed to avert civil unrest and ended in the government partially walking back Supreme Decree 5503.

Blockades were activated for a variety of reasons, including the scandal of poor-quality fuel imports, which damaged thousands of vehicles and sparked off a new round of social unrest.

Beyond the electoral collapse of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, one thing that remained following last year’s elections was a political conflict between the state and the agribusiness sectors of eastern Bolivia. 

Since Paz’s inauguration on 8 November, business sectors that didn’t include him in their forums now hold strategic cabinet positions such as the Ministry of Environment and Planning and the Ministry of Rural Development, Plural Economy and Water.

Paz’s cabinet reshuffle was not just cosmetic. It came with a new style of governance: executive decrees, ministry regulations, and proclamations presented as though they had already been discussed, including the repeal of taxes on large fortunes. One good turn deserves another.

Resistance to ‘capitalism for all’ shuts down the country

December 2025’s Supreme Decree 5503 marked a milestone in Bolivia. The legislative package was hammered out behind closed doors, the annexes were off-limits to the public, and the enactments were fast-tracked before the end-of-year recess.

Behind the most obvious measures—key among which is the end of fuel subsidies—lies a broader agenda: export liberalization, secretive contracts with foreign companies, and the dismantling of labor protections.

These measures violate collective norms and rights, but it was presented as inevitable. Opposing the decree was presented as akin to pushing the country into bankruptcy. The government initially called on key social organizations to join a round of “dialogue,” making clear that only adjustments to form, not substance, were on the table. The official narrative was categorical: those who did not participate were unpatriotic.

The Bolivian Workers’ Union took the lead, first rejecting and then negotiating Decree 5503. Blockades and demonstrations began before Christmas and, after a well-deserved break, intensified to the point of paralyzing the country between January 4 and 12. 

The executive branch sought to minimize the impact of the protests and stigmatize opponents of the decree. But between trying to mask the social turmoil during the visit of the president of the Inter-American Development Bank and the threat by teachers to delay the start of the school year with protests, the Paz government was left with little wiggle room.

It was in this context that the government agreed to negotiate. The result was a partial rollback of the decree, but the measures to alleviate the widespread price hikes brought on by austerity were insufficient.

The already announced rise in fuel prices was barely cushioned by a limited monthly bonus equivalent to just over $15. On top of that, a 20 percent increase in the minimum wage was introduced. The rise was in line with the official inflation rate, and does not reflect the increase in the cost of living.

The government’s official response came with another legislative offensive: three “anti-blockade” bills aimed at criminalizing one of the most historic and effective forms of protest in Bolivia. Not even military governments had moved so enthusiastically in this direction.

Paz’s main course: neoliberalism

Over the first 100 days of the Paz government, the demagogic rhetoric of social inclusion has been taken off the menu. The universal salary for women has been shelved without warning. The increase in bonuses has been put on pause. The promise to maintain the subsidy for fuel destined for use in public transportation has vanished.

That’s all been left behind, like the props of a candidate who, during the campaign, toyed, at least a little, with the idea of a welfare state.

Instead, Paz repeats a simple but handy refrain: “ideology doesn’t put food on the table.” It’s a phrase that says little but that means a lot. It allows the dismantling of social programs, is used to justify cuts, and to present austerity measures as if they were not a political decision but simple economic realism. It makes it seem as if the president’s decisions did not express a specific ideology but rather a supposed technical rationality that’s neutral and based on “common sense.”

Another statement that appears repeatedly, with slight variations, in Paz’s speeches is even more revealing: “Bolivia is capitalist because the people work with capital.” In addition to being incorrect, it contains a dangerous romanticization of informality.

Not all money is capital, nor is self-employment always capitalism. Owning merchandise or tools does not automatically make someone capitalist. Capital, in terms of political economy, is that which allows for reproduction and expansion by appropriating the labor of others or the surplus it generates.

In Bolivia, most people do not control capital in that sense. What they have are minimal subsistence resources which force them to work long hours, rely on fragile incomes, all without any access to social security. Rather than a means of accumulation, these conditions constitute a regime of exploitation.

Referring to precarity as “capitalism” is not a neutral description. Rather, it is an ideological position that transforms structural exclusion into individual responsibility and mass precariousness into “entrepreneurship.”

The other pillar of this ideological turn is symbolic nationalism, a rhetorical device aimed at stirring up the idea of “patriotic sacrifice.”

This is not a form of sovereignty that defends resources or rights, but empty rhetoric that calls on people to endure “for the homeland.” It is a call for resignation, embellished with heroic phrases that are introduced just as austerity measures are implemented.

Dual discourse

There are two more slogans at the heart of the government’s public discourse that capture the spirit of the moment and help us understand what lies ahead.

On the one hand, there is “Capitalism for all,” a direct echo of the old liberal doctrine of Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto. Soto was co-architect of Alberto Fujimori’s neoliberal policies in the 1990s, which considers the poor “capitalists without capital.”

On the other hand, we see the classic European fascist slogan “God, Country, and Family” being used, which was openly adopted by Bolivia’s military regimes. It presents conservative order, political repression, and Catholic morality as state doctrine.

Today, this dual discourse is being communicated as part of a phase of “regaining stability.” According to the Paz government, the economy is “under control,” and we must now enter a stage of “reactivation.”

The problem is that reality stubbornly refuses to match this narrative. The World Bank acknowledges that the recession is continuing this year and will deepen next year. Inflation continues to accelerate, and neither the second gasoline price hike nor the formal devaluation of the exchange rate, which will lead to further inflation, have been implemented. The worst, it seems, is yet to come.

To top it all off, Paz, who promised financial sovereignty during the campaign, is now negotiating an emergency loan of $3.3 billion with the International Monetary Fund, after having already borrowed $8 billion from the Andean Development Corporation and the IDB. These loans are not a reactivation but an emergency measure for severe structural imbalance in the economy.

The government’s narrative is based on a familiar formula: build confidence by hiding key information, even as the evidence contradicts common sense.

One example of this is the recent scandal involving the distribution of low-quality fuel that damaged thousands of vehicles across the country. Initially, the government denied the problem, then downplayed it. Today, the government blames the MAS and claims that the issue was caused by a case of “destabilized gasoline” within the state apparatus. 

Meanwhile, soybean exports are being liberalized, and four major bills aiming to “transform the country” are to be announced within the next six months, even though no one knows what they are about yet. In addition, another bill initially promoted by the MAS to allow business access to land under small property ownership is now being revived by agribusiness.

That means that over 10 percent of Bolivia’s agricultural land could end up in the hands of companies or banks, something that’s been unheard of since the 1953 agrarian reform. This would open the door to legalizing the dispossession of small farmers in Bolivia, in a context of severe economic crisis and rapidly deteriorating rural living conditions.

There is no rupture in Bolivia today. There is continuity. A profound continuity with the neoliberal model that the MAS never dismantled, which today finds a more forthright and disciplined version that’s less uncomfortable with its own consequences and with its current program of government austerity.

The question is not where Bolivia is headed. The direction is clear. 

The question, instead, is who will pay the price, and how much resistance there will be.Email

Stasiek Czaplicki Cabezas is a Bolivian researcher, activist and environmental economist who specializes in agricultural value changes.