Issued on: 09/03/2021
Pollsters say Lula, as Brazil's former president is known, is likely to top the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in next year's presidential election. © Sergio Lima, AFP
Text by:FRANCE 24
The ruling that overturned former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's corruption convictions has upended Brazilian politics and set up a potential election showdown with President Jair Bolsonaro – a challenge the far-right incumbent may himself relish.
Monday's decision by Supreme Court Justice Edson Fachin overturned all convictions against the former president, stemming from a probe into a massive corruption scheme centered on Brazilian state oil company Petrobras.
The ruling was procedural, but it reinstates Lula's right to run for office while the cases against him play out in a different court.
The news dropped like a bomb just as Brazil gears up for presidential elections in October next year, when the country – deeply divided over Bolsonaro's combative, in-your-face reign – will decide whether to keep the man dubbed the "Tropical Trump" for another four years.
Now, the incumbent faces the prospect of a heavyweight adversary on the left, rewriting a race that had looked to be shaping up as a battle between Bolsonaro and a raft of candidates vying for the centre.
"This rocks the Brazilian political scene – we now have a scenario that is totally different from 24 hours ago," said FRANCE 24's correspondent Tim Vickery. Instead of a technocratic campaign on the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, "we're now looking at something that is likely to be a lot more ideological," he added.
'Lula's back'
Lula, who at 75 remains as charismatic as he is controversial, has always claimed he was innocent.
The former steelworker says the charges against him were fabricated to sideline him from the 2018 presidential race, in which he was the frontrunner.
In April that year, he was jailed for taking a bribe from a construction company in return for juicy Petrobras contracts.
After more than a year and a half behind bars, a Supreme Court ruling freed him pending appeal.
Hailing the judge's ruling on Monday, Lula said it was "recognition that we have always been correct throughout our legal battle".
"Lula still faces legal charges, but in order for him to lose his political rights again he would have to be convicted and then lose again on appeal, and there may not be time for that to happen before the next presidential campaign in October of next year," said FRANCE 24's Vickery.
He added: "So move the pieces on the chessboard, Lula's back."
A vulnerable incumbent
Lula's jailing in 2018 helped Bolsonaro surge to the presidency later that year, riding the outrage with the giant corruption scandal engulfing Lula, his Workers' Party (PT), and much of Brazil's political and business establishment.
But just over two years into his term, the far-right president looks vulnerable.
His defiance of expert advice on fighting the coronavirus pandemic has proved a risky bet as Covid-19 has devastated Brazil, claiming more than 266,000 lives – the second-highest death toll worldwide, after the United States.
The coalition of forces that brought the former army captain to power has meanwhile frayed.
Bolsonaro has clashed with both the anti-corruption faction – falling out with popular ex-justice minister Sergio Moro, the former judge who jailed Lula – and the business sector, alarmed by his increasing turn to big-spending economic populism.
Bolsonaro, 65, dismissed Lula's return, saying he was unconcerned.
"The [Lula] government's robbery is plain for all to see," he said. "I don't think the Brazilian people even want a [PT] candidate in 2022, much less him."
Opinion polls, however, suggest otherwise. The latest, released on Sunday by polling firm Ipec, gave Lula the most potential votes in the 2022 election, with 50 percent, making him the only politician to outperform Bolsonaro, on 38 percent.
Bolsonaro 'needs clear enemies'
But there are also whispers in Brasilia that Bolsonaro is happy to have his old enemy back, and with him, a return to a familiar script.
"It is no secret the presidential palace has been rooting for Lula's eligibility," consulting firm Eurasia Group said in a note. "It creates a foil for the president and increases his odds of a second-round victory in 2022 if he faces a candidate on the left rather than the political center."
Lula's return means Bolsonaro will be able to run the kind of polarised campaign he normally thrives on, said Vickery.
"His movement needs clear enemies to maintain its momentum," said FRANCE 24's correspondent. "He is likely to regain support from centres of the financial market who seemed to have tired of him."
Lula would meanwhile face the challenge of uniting a left wing that has badly unravelled since he went to jail.
The Workers' Party is now a shadow of its former self, with upstart rivals challenging its dominance on the left.
If Lula is a candidate, "don't count me in to take part in this circus," tweeted prominent centre-left politician Ciro Gomes, who finished third in the 2018 presidential race, behind Bolsonaro and Lula's stand-in, Fernando Haddad.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
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