Labour in Wales: where now for the left?

By Peter Rowlands

AUGUST 15, 2024

The election result in Wales gave us little to celebrate. True, there are no Tory MPs left in Wales, and Labour now has 27 out of 32 MPs, but the result was even more disproportionate than the overall UK result, with Labour in Wales gaining 84% of the seats for 37% of the vote. On that basis, enthusiasm  is difficult.

The result in Wales was the second worst on a national/regional basis in the UK, with an overall fall of 4% from the 2019 election, compared to a 5% drop in London and 2.5% in the North West. Everywhere else showed an increase in the Labour vote, but not by much, except in Scotland.

There are of course no regional governments in England, except in London. The worst results for Labour were therefore where there were Labour governments, which is no coincidence and explains some of the result. In London the Tory vote held up, with more Independents, although the Reform vote was low at 9%, probably reflecting the greater size of the ethnic minority electorate than elsewhere.

In Wales, Reform did well at 17%, particularly in the old coal valleys in South Wales, as they did in similar areas in England. There were also substantial increases for Plaid Cymru and the Greens. The Reform vote was, however, not as high as in some parts of England, notably the East and West Midlands, and the North East. The upheaval in the Welsh leadership following Gething’s appointment was also a factor, as was the mismanaged introduction of the 20mph speed limit.

So there were reasons for Labour’s poor performance in Wales, That, however, should not detract from there being a serious problem for Labour in Wales, which the left must address. How can that be done?

Before considering that, it would perhaps be appropriate to assess the state of the left in Wales. At Senedd level, despite being instrumental in removing Gething, the left have not, it would appear, sought to oppose, or put up an alternative to, the appointment as First Minister of someone from the centre right. Eluned Morgan’s only positive feature politically is that she is a woman, and therefore much-needed in leadership positions within the Party. This process has not resulted in any of those that originally resigned being reinstated to cabinet positions, presumably in order not to offend the more pro-Gething element, and it can therefore be assumed that the relatively left period under Drakeford since 2018 has come to an end, and that a Morgan-led Welsh Government will prove amenable to the wishes of Labour at Westminster.

At the rank and file level, there appears to have been a renewed surge of members leaving the P arty, highlighted perhaps by the exit of Darren Williams, for many years the secretary of Welsh Labour Grassroots.

All of this indicates that the left is relatively weaker in Wales than it has been even in recent times, although  that will become clearer when the results of internal ballots are revealed next month. It could also mean that what should have been a great opportunity for the left, namely the new electoral system with 36 extra Senedd members, will largely benefit the right.

My own view is that the left should fight at every level to restore its strength, in Wales and the UK as a whole. Labour cannot win the next election without policies that are well to the left of those being currently pursued, despite some positive features. At the moment, with a number of leading left MPs suspended, the outlook for the left at a UK level, as in Wales, is not promising.

In Wales the tasks of the left remain fairly obvious – more devolution, more resources for the Welsh Government, defending steel jobs at Port Talbot, promoting the NHS and opposing the rise of Reform in the old coal valleys are the main ones. But whether the left has the strength, at various levels, to meaningfully address those issues remains to be seen.

Unlike anywhere in England, Wales does have an alternative pole of attraction for the left in the shape of Plaid, and while I would regard any such movement in this direction as a failure to face up to the main issue, it would be understandable. We should remember that Labour was dominant in Scotland until only about 15 years ago.

What I have written is not optimistic, but let us hope that in these volatile times the current situation represents a passing phase, from which the left will be able to regroup and fight back, in Wakes and the UK as a whole.  

Peter  Rowlands is a member of Swansea West CLP.

Image: Eluned Morgan AM. Source: Eluned Morgan AM. Author: National Assembly for Wales from Wales, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.