Jan 8, 2025

From assembly.org.ua
December 24, 2024
Full title: The specter of the Syrian scenario for Ukraine. Some results of 2024 and where the collapse of the army will lead next year
The rapid collapse of Assad's army, which ended the half-century rule of this family in just 11 days, became perhaps the main event of December for many in Ukraine. The Ukrainian government praises the victory of the pro-Turkish forces as a brilliant victory over Russia, despite the fact that it itself increasingly risks repeating the fate of the deposed dictator.
The host of the YouTube channel "Defense Women" two weeks ago said that in the Kupyansk direction, almost the entire second company in the 152nd battalion of the 117th brigade of the Sumy terror defense went to the SZCH because of the "butcher commander". On December 14, Ukrainian military commander Yury Butusov spoke about the scandal with the 155th mechanized brigade "Anna Kievskaya", which was trained in France and was sent to Pokrovsk. Several thousand bussified people were recruited there, and more than a thousand of them "immediately upon arrival went home." Another example: "After the 21st, Trump will turn on the faucet. Europe is not dragging itself. What pays the salary? What will the equipment be filled with? How to repair? Where is BC from? What is fed? How will it start? Companies and battalions will start to attack from positions like in Syria. We're all oohing and ahhing how quickly everything will fall. A colleague at work, bussified, showed up. Mobilized in the spring, joined the Zaporizhia direction. He says how they started to fuck them with everything, a decision was made at home. The entire company entered the SZCH together with the commander. What are they catching? To p**dy. Now he is sitting at home. Live ," they wrote on December 18 in the Kharkiv district chat.
In general, for November 2024 18,984 criminal proceedings were registered under articles 407 and 408 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (abandonment and desertion). In the previous month, there were 9,487, and in January 2024 - a total of 3,448. In total, from February 2022 to December 1, 2024. 114,280 criminal cases have been opened on such facts. Kyiv journalist Vladimir Boyko, who serves in the 241st Brigade of the Military Intelligence Service, comments on these figures in his blog on December 7:
"The army is running away. After the mindless Maryana, together with her brothers in mind, pushed through the Verkhovna Rada the law on the decriminalization of desertion , and earlier, in 2019, pressed the green button for the liquidation of military justice, the Ukrainian army can already be spoken of as a deceased person (…) Moreover, if 19 thousand reports were entered into the ERDR in November 2024, this does not mean at all that exactly so many servicemen deserted. 19 thousand is, in fact, the limit of physical capabilities for registering this category of crimes. Because in each case, the commander of the military unit must first appoint an official investigation, consider and approve the results of the official investigation, send a report on the committed criminal offense to the State Bureau of Investigation or a specialized prosecutor's office in the field of defense, and there they must consider the report and "fill" the text into the ERDR. Neither in military units do there exist such a number of specialists who could conduct official investigations on such a scale, nor in the prosecutor's office and the State Bureau of Investigation do there exist sufficient employees to enter tens of thousands of reports on desertion into the ERDR (…) Think about which country you will live in next year. And how to leave for that country.”
In a post dated December 14, the same author confirmed what "Assembly" reported about the mass exodus from school :
“Kilometers of trenches were dug near Kurakhove. I recently spoke with the deputy commander of one of the battalions in that direction – he says that a Katsap tank mistakenly drove into our positions, drove for 10 minutes until it realized that it had lost its way, and then turned back. Not a single shot was fired at the tank, because there was no one in the positions. An infantry company from near Kherson was transferred to this battalion as reinforcement – so out of 90 people, three reached Kurakhove, the rest scattered along the road. And this situation is everywhere. And what is happening in the training centers? Here, for example, is military unit A1363 – a training center located in the Samariv (formerly Novomoskovsk) district of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Recently, 70 recruits “skied” there in one day. Before that, on November 10, 2024, four people escaped, one of whom is a relative of my friend. The escapee says that there is no military training, during the three weeks of stay in the training unit, the recruits were only engaged in digging toilets and doing some household work, and the main reason for the escape was “hazing” and bullying of the newcomers. Therefore, on November 3, four people also escaped, and in just a month, 30 servicemen deserted (…) Analyzing the statistics of war crimes, back in February-April 2024, I predicted that at the end of the summer the front would begin to collapse, and by the spring of 2025 the army would simply disperse.”
Another pro-Trump blogger, imprisoned parliamentarian Aleksandr Dubinsky, sounded the alarm on December 16: "Against the data of 200,000 deserters and 20,000 registered SZH per month (equal to the number of conscripts), it is impossible to improve the situation at the front. Therefore, the war must be stopped immediately. I repeat, immediately. This should be done by Zelensky, after which he should leave the administration of the state, which his actions have brought to the brink of strategic defeat (…) The cadres of harsh mobilization, which are scattered daily on the Internet, further undermine the spirit of those who could join the ranks. The obvious reluctance to fight also demotivates the army from within. I am sure that both the General Staff and the OP have charts with a forecast of the development of the situation, and even looking at it from the outside, it is obvious that it will worsen. Against this background, the inadequacy of Zelensky's decisions, which seeks salvation in absolutely fantastic, multi-step scenarios, such as an "invitation to NATO" or a "peacekeeping mission of European troops," is absolutely shocking. The idea with the "invitation" was at least an hour late. And the decision on the entry of peacekeeping troops into Ukraine can, obviously, be taken only in the face of a military catastrophe. So, I have the feeling that Zelensky is deliberately leading her as a last chance." He is afraid to reveal that if this state does not become, his plans for coming to power will also be covered with a copper basin.
In general, evasion from military service still remains a purely personal expression of disagreement, which does not provide any basis for unification. And yet, there are changes: if evasiveness is still associated with some political position, then this year it is no longer only with the "Zhdunami of the Russian world", but sometimes also with anarchism and cosmopolitanism, which in 2023 was quite exotic It is reminiscent of what historian-nationalist Viktor Savchenko wrote about the birth of the anarchist movement in Ukraine back in the Kuchmov times: "The Ukrainian mentality of the beginning of the 20th century. in the South of Ukraine, it was formed as "anarchist,", individualist, which often - thickly ignored "statehood" and mythologized "Cossack Mamai", a kind of gulvis, stateless, "adventurer-individualist". The Ukrainian ideal – “Cossack will” – was mixed with voluntarism, disobedience, justification of violence. At a time when for Russians, speaking out against “their” state was “sacrilege”, Ukrainians and Jews saw the state only as a “rapist”. The Ukrainian mentality gave birth to already in 1919 the phenomenon of the Makhnovist movement, which drew hundreds of thousands of residents of Southern Ukraine into its orbit. Such cultural prerequisites contributed to the widespread dissemination of the idea, while at the same time hindering the coordination of actions of various groups and activists. Time will tell which trend will prevail in the near future. future. As one of our readers aptly noted a month ago on condition of anonymity:
"Our gentlemen from the "union of tormentors of Russia and Ukraine" are now neglecting even the laws that they write themselves. It is good, of course, if their law accidentally helps you, but as a last resort, do not forget that the tactics of resistance depend on the situation: if the law does not help and the resistance has no chance of success, it is possible to resort to civil disobedience. As the people of Tolstoy did when they were asked to drag them to the front or take them to prison: they sat down on the ground and said: "I don't need to go there."
In general, according to my observations, cosmopolitanism awakens very quickly in people at the moment when citizenship becomes a basis for duty. Many people, when it was still possible to talk to the TCC and they did not beat them so often, told them: "I am not a citizen, I am a human being." Unfortunately, they used this slogan purely situationally out of an egoistic motive, without developing it to the rank of an ontological position, but I think this is because there is a feeling: as soon as some circumstances come together and certain narratives about the commonwealth of people finally break through to the surface, they will find a response in many people who are already ready for it at the level of intuition."
Tolstoy's methods are not very helpful. A Kharkiv business owner in the field of residential real estate told us on December 22: "This week, my workers went to work, they took all five of them. When we were driving to school, the bus broke down not far from Kharkiv. There were 11 men, and two of them had assault rifles. The men said, either you let us go into the field, or we will kill you, there are more of us. They let go. Now everything is in Kharkov, we just got there." The narrator himself has already sold his cottage in Kharkiv and plans to leave the country for good in June if all this does not end.
Viktor Sydorchenko, who worked as the head of the PR-support department for the activities of the Kharkiv Malyshev plant, and now lives in Germany and participated in the Russian-Ukrainian anti-militarist rallies on December 21 , says this about the way out of the impasse: "No one will win this war. My position is the transformation of the imperialist war into a civil war, brotherhood at the front, a revolutionary army. And all the bourgeois, more precisely, the instigators of the war - on the squares... So far, fraternization is unlikely. But you have to work with it. In fact, there are prerequisites. This conflict will either end in their own way with the help of the people, or the people will do it, on both sides, establishing a truly durable peace in the interests of the majority. By the way, who understands the whole class essence of this war at the front, the most interesting thing is not to fight because they are afraid and die, but to go against the system and their ruling class. That's the tragedy." We disassembled the basis for fraternization from each side of the front a little earlier. And the internationalist Telegram channel "Voice of Anarchists" today tells how German and Entente soldiers arranged a Christmas truce exactly 110 years ago...
Telegram channel "Uklonist.ua", which is run by an anonymous leftist from Kharkiv's Nemyshla who moved to France, sets more modest goals in the program article :
"Everything you read and the talking heads of Ukraine tell you is a victory plan for the leadership of Ukraine, its ruling class.
In fact, we should not be concerned about the affairs of the class that sends us to die in a bioreactor.
In fact, I will not say anything new regarding what I have been saying since the existence of the channel.
The victory of the Ukrainian people is the defeat of the Ukrainian leadership.
But what does this mean, in fact?
Any outcome of the war, which informationally and morally will be perceived by the Ukrainian society as a defeat, is, at the same time, a victory for the Ukrainian society. As a result of the war, Ukrainian society will become the winner if it becomes completely disillusioned with the entire current political class, all Western NGOs, and all right-wing radical organizations.
The Ukrainian society will win if the main unconscious slogan of the Ukrainian is again - "if only there was no war".
If the Ukrainian leadership manages to beat out in the information sphere and in the moral sphere that Ukraine won the war, then why won't the war be repeated again? Who wouldn't want to "win" again?
Also, the victory of the Ukrainian leadership in the war means the preservation of the immunity of the political class of Ukraine, the preservation of the credibility of at least part of them. This means the continuation of the 33-year-old policy of the leaky garbage dump.
Defeat in the heads is a chance that all the past and all past slogans will not be perceived as marginal. Defeat means that everything that happened during the war, everything that happened before it and led to it, is wrong. Who wants to lose again, run away again, lose their home again?
And here it is absolutely not important what the results will be on the ground, at the front. It is important how the event was told and what everyone believed, not what actually happened.
Here the main battle is informational, informational will destroy the reputation and authority of the Ukrainian leadership and all those who protect it and work for it directly or indirectly (at the level of narratives).
Informationally, they will destroy everyone who tries to pass himself off as an oppositionist and tries to "direct" the policy of Ukraine in the right direction, "correct" it, do it "in a humane way." All this is the same protectionism, the desire to perfume bad-smelling garbage.
The defeat of the Ukrainian leadership is a chance to lose pink glasses, a chance to realize reality, a chance to take a cold shower.
This is the real plan of Victory. Because the preservation of current narratives, their adaptation in post-war Ukraine is the same way as before.
And yes, the defeat of the Ukrainian leadership gives only a CHANCE to realize reality and lose rose-colored glasses in a significant part of society. But this is not a guarantee, a lot depends on the society as well, whether it will be able to develop grassroots organizations within itself, organizations of their interests, and not of other people's interests with a national banner."
How can one not remember those who will spend New Year's holidays on the way from the people's prison to freedom! On December 9, the Associated Press agency reported a touching story of how a guy crossed the border with Romania through the Carpathians, almost died in 10-degree frost, but was saved by Romanian rescuers. 28-year-old Vladyslav Duda, who ran away from mobilization with a kitten named Persik, was found in a mountain gorge of the Maramures region at a depth of 400 m, soaked and close to frostbite. And when the rescuers unzipped the jacket, they found a friend's ego under it. " The cat was warm and warmed him... so he saved his life . " Duda said that he worked as a journalist in Ukraine and left his home in the Kharkiv region more than a week ago to avoid mobilization: "What I remember is the fear of the unknown and the fear of not surviving this night alive. My Peach saved my life. When we fled, we were afraid of everyone, lest they send us back to fight in a war that is not ours." On his Instagram page, Vlad poses in a cap with the Pacific Ocean and writes: "Dodging people learn to be free . " At the time of publication of the AP material, he was being treated for the effects of hypothermia, and the cat also received treatment at a veterinary clinic.
Since the poem "The Fugitive" by Vladyslav Usachev posted on "Assembly" sold well in the fall , this time we are publishing his second piece - "Hymn of the Fugitives", posted by the author on his channel :
Where the pines hide their eyes
Where a stream whispers among the mountains
The stars paint the sunset
And the night knocks on the window
The spruces stand guard there
And the mountains spread far away
The tops are covered to the very edge With
thick, spreading fogs
And in clothes covered in frost,
the guards of the lines stand guard,
waiting for prey like squids,
merging in the mist like ghosts.
Do you walk in the heat or in the rain?
All your senses are sensitive.
You cover great distances.
Your feet are rubbed by your shoes.
Your back burns like coals
Everything hurts like crazy
And thirst prevents you from thinking
Everything hinders you
And the heart strives to go further
Only forward, only further
And the voice in the head is heard
There will be no way back
You left your home,
and of all your belongings, only a storm jacket, a bottle of
water on your daughter's neck,
and half a pack of raw cigarettes.
Night bends the branches of the oak tree
And fatigue binds the chains
The path is long, feet are like stones
But a ray lives in the soul
The winds sing about the road
About those peaks and spurs
You lie down and there is silence in your chest
It's so good that this night is warmer
Towards the wind, towards fate
An unbreakable will carries you forward
Your compass is faith and hope
May it lead you to your dream
Your friend is a night with rain and mountains
Let the fog draw the curtains
And every step in this adventure
Brings you closer to freedom
What else would our free-thinking reading public want in 2025? All the same as an hour ago. At the very least, stay with the "Assembly" and further (we are not asking you for money, just let the opportunity come from time to time). We wish those who are going to leave warring countries to do it successfully and settle in a new place. For those who do not want to leave, we wish to have as little as possible to deal with the state gang and become as self-sufficient as possible up to the creation of autonomous settlements in the rural wilderness. And, of course, help needy people and animals, keep yourself in good health, develop yourself, study anarchist communism. Perhaps it will come in handy sooner than you think.
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