Helen Huiskes
Sat, August 15, 2026
THE HILL
As Republicans look to hold on to their Senate majority in November, one state that is usually safely red is heating up as a former Democratic congresswoman makes a comeback bid to return to Washington.
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is facing a challenge from former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), and while polls are somewhat inconclusive, national Republicans have kicked up spending in the race to back Sullivan.
James Brooks, a longtime Alaska political reporter, said that's due to the national environment being less favorable for Republicans because of President Trump's low approval ratings around the country and high costs of living.
"I talked with somebody who was door knocking for Sullivan in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, which is a very Republican area, and they were finding very lukewarm support among people who answered their doors," Brooks said. "And this was from someone who supports Sullivan and was door knocking for him."
Another key factor in the race, Brooks said, is that Peltola enjoys a high profile as a former congresswoman who was elected statewide twice. She was the first Alaska Native member of Congress and in addition to politics has also worked on commercial fishing boats and served as a tribal judge.
She is running on her record as an independent voice: As a congresswoman, she chaired a caucus of moderate Democrats, the Blue Dogs, and she had many Republican staffers in her office and campaign.
"I don't think there's anyone else in the state who could give Dan Sullivan as tough of a race as Peltola can," Brooks said.
Sullivan, in his second term as a senator, is a Marine Corps veteran, former state attorney general and Bush administration alumnus who toppled a one-term Democratic senator in 2015 alongside Trump's first rise to power.
The stakes in Alaska this year are high as Republicans cannot lose more than two seats without losing the majority, and some other Republican-held seats, like in North Carolina and Ohio, appear to be very competitive.
While a majority of Alaskan voters are Republican, the state has chosen political representatives across the ideological spectrum, from former Sen. Mark Begich, the Democrat whom Sullivan defeated, to current Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), a regular swing vote against Trump's agenda in the Senate.
Right now, it's hard to know exactly whom voters want more.
Alaska is a unique state on the political map. It is famously hard to poll because of its population being spread out in smaller communities, and poll results have sometimes been confusing and inaccurate.
The most recent round of polling publicly available is from Alaska Survey Research conducted in early August and shows Peltola 2 points ahead of Sullivan. (Alaska Survey Research is run by a consultant who has worked for Democrats.)
Other polls have shown Sullivan up by 2 points, including a poll from The New York Times/Siena University in June.
The first test will be Tuesday's open primary, where all 16 candidates from all parties will compete and the top four vote-getters will advance.
Brooks said that contest might be inconclusive, though, since Democratic voters are historically more likely to turn out for the August primary, and thus the result might skew more Democratic than the general election will be.
"What we do see indicates a very close race at this point," Brooks said. "But keep in mind, we're still months away from November. A lot of Alaskans are out fishing and are not necessarily paying close attention to the election yet."
In the next few weeks and months, both campaigns said they're hoping to make use of what attention voters give them.
Nate Adams, spokesperson for the Sullivan campaign, said they're hoping to rebuff any idea that Peltola is a political outsider by reminding voters that she was a member of Congress until two years ago.
Another focus is Sullivan's legislative record.
Sullivan has touted his support for H.R. 1, the Republican reconciliation and tax cuts legislation passed last year, which he has rebranded as the Alaska Opportunity Act in his ads.
"I think on every issue, whether it's unleashing energy, creating good paying jobs, making sure Alaskans keep more money in their pockets, you know, expanding our military and Coast Guard, we're very fortunate that the contrast is pretty clear," Adams said.
A spokesperson for the Peltola campaign, in a statement, accused Sullivan of getting wealthy in his Senate role and pointed to data that showed Sullivan's approval rating at 37 percent. Peltola's donors come from every borough in the state, the campaign said, and 95 percent of the donations it has taken in are under $100.
That sets up a contrast with Sullivan, the spokesperson said.
"From tripling his wealth while in the U.S. Senate, to enjoying a lavish lifestyle on the donor dime, to his steadfast loyalty to special interests at the expense of Alaskans – Sullivan has only ever focused on enriching himself," read the statement.
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