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Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are running neck-and-neck in conflicting opinion polls just weeks before an October 4 election dominated by a multibillion-dollar bank fraud scandal that has ensnared the president's chief rival and a Supreme Court justice.
Two surveys released on September 14 showed starkly different pictures of a potential second-round run-off. A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll had the seasoned leftist leader regaining a narrow lead over Bolsonaro, the eldest son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, with 47% support against 46%, reversing a result a week earlier that had shown the senator ahead 46% to 45%.
A separate Quaest poll commissioned by broadcaster Globo, meanwhile, put Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of the incumbent for the first time in the campaign, with 42% against 40% for Lula, according to Valor.
Quaest said the figures fell within its two-percentage-point margin of error, meaning the race remained a technical tie, with 13% of voters saying they would cast blank or null ballots and 5% undecided.
Bolsonaro's improved standing in recent polls has helped Brazilian assets rally over the past week, as investors view the senator as more market-friendly, Reuters reported. If no candidate wins more than half of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders will advance to an October 25 run-off.
An earlier Datafolha poll, cited by Lula's Workers' Party, had given the president a stronger first-round lead of 39% to 35%, with the two effectively tied at 46% to 44% in a hypothetical run-off.
The tightening race has unfolded against the backdrop of an investigation into Banco Master, whose collapse and alleged multimillion-dollar fraud has implicated Flávio Bolsonaro, Justice Alexandre de Moraes and a string of other senior political and judicial figures across the political spectrum.
Disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, the alleged mastermind of the scheme, was arrested last year and Banco Master was subsequently liquidated by Brazil's central bank.
Flávio Bolsonaro was confirmed earlier in September to be under formal investigation for corruption, currency evasion and money laundering over his efforts to secure financing for a film about his imprisoned father, but the senator had previously denied even knowing Vorcaro.
Moraes, a justice seen as friendly to Lula who led the legal proceedings that saw Jair Bolsonaro convicted and jailed over a 2022 coup plot, has himself been named a suspect over his close relationship with the banker, after Vorcaro reportedly exchanged more than 50 text messages with the judge over 20 days seeking help with investigators, police and prosecutors.
Brazil's Supreme Court is due to convene on September 15 to examine those messages, after court president Edson Fachin ordered the lifting of secrecy on the entire case file.
The scandal has largely overshadowed other key campaign themes such as public safety, the economy and national sovereignty, even as the two camps expect fresh revelations from the unsealed files to use against one another.
The controversy, meanwhile, spilled onto the streets in recent weeks, with thousands of Lula supporters marching in several Brazilian cities to back his re-election bid and to protest against the corruption allegations swirling around Bolsonaro.
Lula used a nationwide mobilisation on September 13 to urge Workers' Party supporters to intensify both street and online campaigning over the final 20 days before the vote. The leftist ruling party said it had staged more than 1,120 rallies and other events across 26 of Brazil's 27 states, with activity reported in roughly 130 cities.
"We need to turn these remaining 20 days of the campaign into absolute truth to overcome absolute lies," Lula said during a live broadcast.
The president defended his government's record on the economy and social policy, citing figures showing food inflation had fallen to 13.6% under his administration from 56.17% under his predecessor, while acknowledging prices remained high.
He also pledged to expand federal police intelligence operations against organised crime and cellphone theft gangs, and outlined plans including ending Brazil's six-day working week and expanding full-time education.
Lula said his government had arrested Vorcaro and that if evidence emerged implicating his own son Fábio Luís, who faces a separate investigation over alleged lobbyist dealings with the health ministry, he would be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
Lula is seeking the backing of seven progressive parties in his bid for a fourth nonconsecutive term, having previously governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 before returning to office in 2023.
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