How long will the India-Pakistan ceasefire last?

May 31, 2025

The fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan after recent military clashes is far from the end of the story. Ahead of an important webinar, Carol Turner explains why hostilities between these two neighbours pose an ever-present threat to South Asia.

An attack on Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22nd April 2025 resulted in the death of 26 people. After five days of military strikes by India and Pakistan that followed, a fragile ceasefire was established on 10th May. The Indian government claims Pakistan-based insurgent groups were behind the attack. The Pakistan government denies aiding the attack and has called for an independent investigation into its origins.

In response to the Pahalgam attack, India launched Operation Sindoor targeting what it claimed were terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with missile attacks, triggering the most serious military confrontation of recent years. Both sides employed

drones and precision-guided munitions, highlighting the impact new technology is beginning to have on modern war fighting.

This hostile exchange between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is the latest in a series of clashes that began 80 years ago with partition of the Indian sub-continent in 1947. The end of Britain’s colonial rule, saw the country split into Indian-administered and Pakistan-administered territories, which remain separated by a 450-mile Line of Control delineating a border between the territories each controls that was established by UN resolution in 1948.

After a major war between Pakistan and India in 1971, the two signed the Simla peace accord, agreeing to resolve the Kashmir conflict by peaceful means and to respect the Line of Control. There have been many military clashes across the border since then, however, and despite the current ceasefire underlying tensions between the two neighbours show little sign of abating.

Pahalgam underscored how volatile the relationship between India and Pakistan is, while the recent military exchanges provide a warning of the increased dangers posed by modern technology at the service of India and Pakistan in any future conflicts. Perhaps most concerning of all though, Pahalgam reminds us of the ever-present risk of nuclear conflict in the region. By the end of the 1990s both India and Pakistan had become nuclear weapons states. They currently have approximately balanced nuclear arsenals of around 200 warheads each – more than enough to lay waste to South Asia.

As Trinational Institute Fellow and active member of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace (India) Achin Vanaik puts it: “South Asia is the only part of the world where there are two nuclear armed countries with an 80-year history of continuous hot-cold wars that show no signs of ending.’”

Murad Qureshi, a British Muslim whose family hails from Bangladesh, maintains a keen interest in South Asia. Better known to many as a former member of the London Assembly, Murad sums up the situation, saying: “The Kashmir conflict casts a long shadow over South Asia. Opinions on the likelihood of nuclear conflict vary, but that potential is ever present.”

London CND’s webinar on the India Pakistan conflict over Kashmir with Murad Qureshi and Achin Vanaik on 2nd June, is an opportunity to explore the issues further with two speakers who are steeped in the history of this conflict. Register in advance to join this timely discussion.

Carol Turner is Chair of the London Region Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament and Convenor of CND’s International Advisory Group. She is author of Corbyn and Trident: Labour’s continuing controversy and Walter Wolfgang a political life.

Map image: Kashmir. Source:  File:Kashmir map.svg Author Original:: w:user:Planemad. Derived work: Soumya-8974, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.