London bullion vaults see historic inflows after silver squeeze
Silver held in London vaults swelled by the largest amount in at least nine years, easing an extreme squeeze that sent prices soaring over metal stored in Shanghai and New York.
Vaults underpinning the London market added nearly 54 million troy ounces of silver in October, an amount weighing more than 100 of the UK capital’s iconic double-decker buses. It was drawn to London by a historic arbitrage opportunity caused by market tightness, pulling stocks out of warehouses elsewhere.
Silver inventories in London hit an all-time low earlier this year after tariff fears sparked a massive outflow of the metal to New York. When a spike in Indian demand, as well as a wave of buying for silver-backed exchange-traded funds, hit the market in early October, there wasn’t enough silver left to meet demand, sending the benchmark spot price soaring as much as $3 an ounce over other markets.
That created an attractive arbitrage opportunity for traders who could quickly withdraw metals from vaults in the US and China and fly it to London.
The massive increase in London vault holdings “certainly suggests that the arbitrage has worked by pulling metal across the pond,” Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX Financial Ltd., wrote in a note.
The latest inflow of metal has eased tightness in the London market, with spot prices now trading just below New York futures. Approximately 48 million ounces of metal was withdrawn from Comex vaults in October, while nearly 17 million ounces of on-warrant silver stocks were taken from the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Silver-backed exchange traded funds, most of which store the majority of their metal in London, also saw net outflows of about 15 million ounces in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
All that has injected a flood of silver back into a market that was extremely tight just a month ago. TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali, who had warned of demand outstripping supply earlier this year, now estimates there are nearly 200 million ounces of silver freely available to buy or borrow.
More silver entered the market than can be explained by outflows from New York, Shanghai and ETF outflows, Ghali wrote, indicating that some of the repletion came from private vaults or recycled scrap.
“This marks the end of this #silversqueeze chapter,” he said.
Still, the cost of borrowing silver in London remains elevated at an annualized rate of roughly 5% for a one-month loan — even though it’s well below rates of over 30% at the peak of the squeeze in October.
The period of tightness accelerated proposals by the London Bullion Market Association to publish silver inventory levels every week, chief executive Ruth Crowell said at a recent conference. Inventories of both metals in the London market are currently published monthly.
“With the onset of the Indian wedding seasons imminent, which is always a strong tool for silver demand, it is perfectly possible that this market will remain tight for the time being,” O’Connell said.
Tariffs on the white metal also pose risks. The US added silver to a government list of critical minerals included in the Trump administration’s Section 232 probe, which could lead to levies and trade restrictions.
(By Jack Ryan)
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