November 12, 2025
Observer Research Foundation
By Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury and Sreedipta Roy
Recent protests in Nepal reflected youth anger over political stagnation, soaring living costs, and deepening mistrust in governance, with corruption at the core. Yet, an even graver threat looms large: climate change, already evident through erratic weather, melting glaciers, and rising natural disasters that endanger the fragile Himalayan ecosystem and the livelihoods it supports.
For a country that is among the ones to contribute least towards global emissions, Nepal faces a disproportionate burden of climate change as Himalayan glaciers face the imminent threat of disappearing, and an increase in natural calamities plagues the nation’s fragile ecosystem and vulnerable communities. Almost 80 percent of the Himalayan glacial reserve faces a risk of extinction by 2100 if global emissions continue to increase. Even with efforts to keep the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, up to 30 percent of glaciers would still be lost. In the last twelve years, 44,000 reported incidents of floods, landslides, and storms have taken place in Nepal, claiming the lives of 5,667 individuals and resulting in US$367 million in losses.
With a fragile and unpredictable environment at play, many people turn to migration as the only pathway to a stable and secure life. For instance, indigenous communities continue to shrink in the village of Dhye, as several members out-migrated when water became too scarce. Between 2001 and 2021, the Panchakanya village in Terhathum district witnessed a 40 percent reduction in its population, while the Thoklung village lost 42 percent of its population. It is estimated that the loss of glaciers in the future can lead to severe water shortages for the 250 million people living in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, affecting another 1.6 billion people downstream. This doesn’t just impact the trajectory of Nepal but also of South Asia, especially as densely populated countries like India and Bangladesh face the imminent threat of mass migration and a threat to the livelihoods of billions who depend on the glacial system for several reasons.
In this context, this essay seeks to examine how climate change influences migration patterns in Nepal, and to analyse better how climate change in the Himalayas impacts indigenous communities. By situating it within the broader discourse on climate-induced displacement, this essay emphasises the urgent need for collaboration at the regional level to protect at-risk communities and to enhance the climate resistance of the Himalayas.
Factors Driving Migration
It is important to understand the ways in which climate change disrupts the everyday lives of ordinary people, forcing them to relocate. Over 60 percent of the population in Nepal depends on agriculture as their means of income, with the Terai region being the most agriculturally productive. Due to the late arrival of monsoons, droughts have become more frequent, particularly in the winter months and in the western Terai plains. The average annual rainfall has decreased by 3.7 mm per month every decade since 1960.
In the coming years, the number of rainy days will likely decline along with an increase in the intensity of rainfall. This, in turn, will impact water, agriculture, health, livelihood, energy, biodiversity, disaster management, and urban planning. An estimation in 2015 suggested that due to the impact of climate change on agriculture, Nepal’s GDP will drop by 0.8 percent each year by 2050. The study also associated changes in crop production with changes in precipitation patterns during the period, affecting Nepal’s water resources availability and variation. Too little rainfall will reduce rice and maize cultivation, which are the main food crops for much of the country’s population, while high-intensity rainfall will destroy crops and increase topsoil erosion.
In Nepal, there is a direct link between climate change, farming, and migration. The indigenous Tibetans of the upper Himalayas, who have long adapted to one of the world’s harshest environments, are now being compelled to migrate. The people of Upper Mustang remain among the few preserving the remnants of traditional Tibetan spiritual culture. Upper Mustang’s economy has collapsed as grazing lands erode and rivers dry, with a 4.3 percent loss of plant cover over 30 years, causing severe soil erosion. In villages like Samdzong, once fertile lands now face drought, erratic water, and migration. Despite emission cuts, glacial retreat persists, threatening Nepal’s high-altitude communities with displacement and loss.
The Effect of Out-Migration
This migration often takes place to urban cities, which means a tougher life for many. The absence of social networks and marketable skills funnels individuals into low-paying, unstable jobs, making them susceptible to repeated cycles of exploitation and poverty. Overseas labour migration is increasing, especially among the youth. Although remittances help strengthen rural economies, migrants often face hazardous working conditions, long periods of family separation, and inadequate protection. Even greater challenges are faced by women and indigenous peoples alike, and these groups represent sections of society that are often ignored in decision-making, while they also bear the burden of waiting for food and water security to be restored in their homes. The resultant impacts clearly indicate that the impacts of climate-related migration must be managed not only from an environmental perspective but from a social one as well. If affected families do not receive proper support and investment for climate adaptation, they will continue to suffer. Creating sustainable livelihoods and helping displaced families is essential. Without these efforts, migrants from the Nepali Himalayas will gradually lose their dignity and sense of identity as they struggle to survive away from their mountain homes.
Addressing Policy Gaps and the Need for Regional Coordination
Even as Nepal has begun to recognise and include climate-induced mobility in its national framework, its integrated mobility response still faces significant policy implementation gaps. These gaps are compounded by the absence of cohesive cross-border cooperation in the South Asian region. While Nepal’s National Adaptation Plan draws attention to climate-induced migration, loss of livelihoods, and the need for adaptation tracking data systems, issues pertaining to funding, fractured mandates across tiers of government, and the absence of migration-specific legislations (such as social protection and planned relocation frameworks) render the implementation of such proposals ineffective.
Gacial systems, climate change, and human mobility are transboundary issues and thus should be addressed at the regional level. However, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) collaboration is sporadic; experts cite stalled projects, insufficiently funded joint projects, and a tendency to “securitise” climate challenges, which hinders productive collaboration on shared river basins, climate services, and early warning systems.
At the eighth edition of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction held in June 2025, a high-level event was organised by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). Nepal’s Home Secretary Gokarna Mani Duwadee called for the establishment of a cohesive BIMSTEC disaster mechanism that would synchronise risk evaluations, supervise Sendai Framework enforcement and the formation of a specific regional Disaster Risk Reduction fund. Climate action takes priority for BIMSTEC as it hosts a workshop in Kathmandu, thereby highlighting the necessity of climate policies rooted in principles of gender equality and social inclusion.
Because of the direct effect on water security and cross-border displacement, changes in glacial flow and snow will require coordinated action in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The Glacier and Snowassessments of the Hindu Kush Himalaya mandate cooperation across the entire Hindu Kush region through open data, harmonised risk monitoring, and planning across entire basins. Recent reports highlight the urgency in dealing with floods and infrastructure breakdowns that are hampering trade and energy networks in a manner that no single country can combat.
To address these issues, climate-induced displacement should be incorporated into both national and local budgets, as well as social protection strategies, aligning actions in the NAP with earmarked funding and voluntary, rights-based relocation guidelines. Planning should be based on policy-relevant, open climate risk and migration data, and regional platforms should be reinvigorated with periodic data exchange agreements and shared drought management, early warning, and GLOF (glacial lake outburst floods) risk reduction funds. With international agreements still non-binding, a regional soft-law instrument (or protocol) to protect cross-border environmental migrants by clarifying their rights to assistance, employment, and admission should be put in place. If these steps are ignored, the forecasted climate displacement in Nepal will trigger a sequence of crises affecting the South Asian labour markets, waterways, and urban centres, resulting in irreparable damage to the region’s economy and livelihood.
About the authors:Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury is a Senior Fellow with the Neighbourhood Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation.
Sreedipta Roy is an Intern at the Observer Research Foundation.
Source: This article was published by the Observer Research Foundation.
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