Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Political vacuum in Haiti deepens as senators' terms expire
 

DÁNICA COTO and EVENS SANON
Tue, January 10, 2023 


PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Haiti awoke Tuesday stripped of its last democratically elected institution — this time, its Senate — an alarming development that solidifies what some call a de facto dictatorship nominally in charge of a country wracked by gang violence.

While only 10 senators had been symbolically representing the nation's 11 million people in recent years because Haiti had failed to hold legislative elections since October 2019, their terms expired overnight, leaving Haiti without a single lawmaker in its House or Senate amid a spiraling political crisis. Organized crime groups have been running virtually unchecked since the July 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, who himself had been ruling by decree.

“It's a very grim situation,” said Alex Dupuy, a Haitian-born sociologist at Wesleyan University, "one of the worst crises that Haiti has had since the Duvalier dictatorship.”

The bloody regime of Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier, who fled the country in 1986, marked the last time Haiti lacked elected officials.

The Parliament building in downtown Port-au-Prince remained deserted on Tuesday, with only security guards at the gate. Similar scenes were evident outside Haiti's non-functioning Supreme Court and electoral commission.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who assumed leadership of Haiti with the backing of the international community after Moïse was killed, has failed to hold general elections despite multiple pledges over the last year and a half to do so. His latest promise, on Jan. 1, was that the Supreme Court would be restored and a provisional electoral council tasked with setting a reasonable date for elections.

But Henry offered no timeline, even as he asked Haitians to trust each other and “take me at my word when I speak of my government’s desire to do everything possible to reconstitute our democratic institutions.”

“There are no powers to check his decisions,” Dupuy said. “As long as that situation continues, Henry is going to be behaving like a dictator.”

A spokesman for Henry's office declined to comment.

The U.N. has warned that security in Haiti needs to improve before elections are held. Reported kidnappings soared to more than 1,200 last year, double what was reported the previous year, according to the U.N., and at least 280 killings were reported in November alone, the highest monthly record.

Briefing the U.N. Security Council in December, Helen La Lime, who was appointed Haiti’s U.N. special envoy in October 2019, described what she called “alarmingly high levels of gang violence” in Haiti, which has fewer than 9,000 active police officers nationwide.

The gangs increasingly rely on kidnappings to fund their operations, with experts estimating that they control about 60% of Port-au-Prince.

“We are scared to step out of our houses,” said Daniel Jean, 25, who sells phone chargers and other equipment in the capital. “We are cornered: kidnapping, extortions. Gangs are killing people because we don’t have ransom.”

Haitians have lost all trust in the democratic process, Jean said, adding that he won't vote if the same politicians and parties appear on the ballot: “They have more influence than the gangs. They control all the gangs.

“This is why the country is not going to move forward until the international community ... comes in to help,” he said.

Henry requested the immediate deployment of foreign troops in October after the most powerful gang seized control of a key fuel terminal, cutting off supplies to hospitals, schools, businesses and homes.

But the United States and Canada, among others, have responded only by implementing sanctions, not sending troops.

“Haiti needs stability,” decried Andrea Marcele, 29, who sells yams, lemons, carrots and other goods in the streets of the capital after migrating from the northern region of Grand-Anse.

“The country has no president ... no elected officials,” she said. “Everybody is hungry for power. We are paying the consequences.”

As the situation worsens, Haitians increasingly flee by plane or aboard rickety boats, desperately risking their lives to reach some safety and economic security. Many aim for the Bahamas, or Florida. President Joe Biden's administration intercepted tens of thousands last year, sending them back to Haiti.

Rodelie Kator, 49, sells rice, beans and other goods, hoping to send her 18-year-old son to Chile or Brazil, popular destination points for Haitians who then try to reach Mexico and cross into the United States.

“I’m hoping for a better life for my son,” she said. “I don’t want to witness him being killed.”

Kator said she wishes he could stay in Haiti because she has seen in the news “what my brothers and sisters have to go through to get to Mexico. ... being treated like animals.”

But Haiti holds no promise for her son, even as Biden announced last week that his administration would immediately turn away Haitians and other migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Haitian economist Enomy Germain tried to use this moment, with zero elected officials in Haiti, to encourage his countrymen.

“This date will have marked the beginning of the end of a political class without vision — without regard for the common good and without balance — if you good people get involved," he tweeted. "Know that tomorrow will not be better without you.”

But even if elections were to be held, many Haitians wonder whether any candidate will be worthy of their support as they fear for their life.

“It feels like we’re heading toward a civil war,” said Marcele. “You’re walking with a coffin under your arm.”

___

Coto reported from San Juan, Puerto Rico.









Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry leaves after attending a graduation ceremony for new members of the country's armed forces in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph)


Astronomers Find the Edge of Our Galaxy


Kevin Hurler
Mon, January 9, 2023 

The Andromeda Galaxy captured by the NASA Galaxy Evolution Mapper in 2012.

In the quest to find the outer limits of our galaxy, astronomers have discovered over 200 stars that form the Milky Way’s edge, the most distant of which is over one million light-years away—nearly halfway to the Andromeda galaxy.

The 208 stars the researchers identified are known as RR Lyrae stars, which are stars with a brightness that can change as viewed from Earth. These stars are typically old and brighten and dim at regular intervals, which is a mechanism that allows scientists to calculate how far away they are. By calculating the distance to these RR Lyrae stars, the team found that the farthest of the bunch was located about halfway between the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxy, one of our cosmic next-door neighbors.

“This study is redefining what constitutes the outer limits of our galaxy,” said Raja GuhaThakurta in a press release. GuhaThakurta is professor and chair of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of California Santa Cruz. “Our galaxy and Andromeda are both so big, there’s hardly any space between the two galaxies.”


Illustration: NASA, ESA, AND A. FEILD (STSCI)

The Milky Way galaxy consists of a few different parts, the primary of which is a thin, spiral disk about 100,000 light-years across. Our home solar system sits on one of the arms of this disk. An inner and outer halo surround the disk, and these halos contain some of the oldest stars in our galaxy.

Previous studies have placed the edge of the outer halo at 1 million light-years from the Milky Way’s center, but based on the new work, the edge of this halo should be about 1.04 million light-years from the galactic center. Yuting Feng, a doctoral student at the university working with GuhaThakurta, led the study and is presenting the findings this week at the American Astronomical Society meeting in Seattle.

“We were able to use these variable stars as reliable tracers to pin down the distances,” said Yuting Feng, a doctoral student at the university working with GuhaThakurta. “Our observations confirm the theoretical estimates of the size of the halo, so that’s an important result.”

Space is vast and lonely—but we can feel a bit cozier knowing that our galactic neighbor is closer than we thought.

Astronomers find the most distant stars in our galaxy halfway to Andromeda


A search for variable stars called RR Lyrae has found some of the most distant stars in the Milky Way’s halo a million light years away

Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SANTA CRUZ

Milky Way halo structure 

IMAGE: THIS ILLUSTRATION SHOWS THE MILKY WAY GALAXY'S INNER AND OUTER HALOS. A HALO IS A SPHERICAL CLOUD OF STARS SURROUNDING A GALAXY. view more 

CREDIT: NASA, ESA, AND A. FEILD (STSCI)

Astronomers have discovered more than 200 distant variable stars known as RR Lyrae stars in the Milky Way’s stellar halo. The most distant of these stars is more than a million light years from Earth, almost half the distance to our neighboring galaxy, Andromeda, which is about 2.5 million light years away.

The characteristic pulsations and brightness of RR Lyrae stars make them excellent “standard candles” for measuring galactic distances. These new observations allowed the researchers to trace the outer limits of the Milky Way’s halo.

“This study is redefining what constitutes the outer limits of our galaxy,” said Raja GuhaThakurta, professor and chair of astronomy and astrophysics at UC Santa Cruz. “Our galaxy and Andromeda are both so big, there’s hardly any space between the two galaxies.”

GuhaThakurta explained that the stellar halo component of our galaxy is much bigger than the disk, which is about 100,000 light years across. Our solar system resides in one of the spiral arms of the disk. In the middle of the disk is a central bulge, and surrounding it is the halo, which contains the oldest stars in the galaxy and extends for hundreds of thousands of light years in every direction.

“The halo is the hardest part to study because the outer limits are so far away,” GuhaThakurta said. “The stars are very sparse compared to the high stellar densities of the disk and the bulge, but the halo is dominated by dark matter and actually contains most of the mass of the galaxy.”

Yuting Feng, a doctoral student working with GuhaThakurta at UCSC, led the new study and is presenting their findings in two talks at the American Astronomical Society meeting in Seattle on January 9 and 11.

According to Feng, previous modeling studies had calculated that the stellar halo should extend out to around 300 kiloparsecs or 1 million light years from the galactic center. (Astronomers measure galactic distances in kiloparsecs; one kiloparsec is equal to 3,260 light years.) The 208 RR Lyrae stars detected by Feng and his colleagues ranged in distance from about 20 to 320 kiloparsecs.

“We were able to use these variable stars as reliable tracers to pin down the distances,” Feng said. “Our observations confirm the theoretical estimates of the size of the halo, so that’s an important result.”

The findings are based on data from the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS), a program using the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) to study a cluster of galaxies well beyond the Milky Way. The survey was not designed to detect RR Lyrae stars, so the researchers had to dig them out of the dataset. The Virgo Cluster is a large cluster of galaxies that includes the giant elliptical galaxy M87.

“To get a deep exposure of M87 and the galaxies around it, the telescope also captured the foreground stars in the same field, so the data we used are sort of a by-product of that survey,” Feng explained.

According to GuhaThakurta, the excellent quality of the NGVS data enabled the team to obtain the most reliable and precise characterization of RR Lyrae at these distances. RR Lyrae are old stars with very specific physical properties that cause them to expand and contract in a regularly repeating cycle.

“The way their brightness varies looks like an EKG—they’re like the heartbeats of the galaxy—so the brightness goes up quickly and comes down slowly, and the cycle repeats perfectly with this very characteristic shape,” GuhaThakurta said. “In addition, if you measure their average brightness, it is the same from star to star. This combination is fantastic for studying the structure of the galaxy.”

The sky is full of stars, some brighter than others, but a star may look bright because it is very luminous or because it is very close, and it can be hard to tell the difference. Astronomers can identify an RR Lyrae star from its characteristic pulsations, then use its observed brightness to calculate how far away it is. The procedures are not simple, however. More distant objects, such as quasars, can masquerade as RR Lyrae stars.

“Only astronomers know how painful it is to get reliable tracers of these distances,” Feng said. “This robust sample of distant RR Lyrae stars gives us a very powerful tool for studying the halo and testing our current models of the size and mass of our galaxy.”

This study is based on observations obtained with MegaPrime/MegaCam, a joint project of CFHT and CEA/IRFU, at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), which is operated by the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) of France, and the University of Hawaii.


Iran executions quash protests, push dissent underground



Protesters sentenced to death for allegedly killing members of security forces during protests after Mahsa Amini's death, in Isfahan


Tue, January 10, 2023 
By Parisa Hafezi

DUBAI (Reuters) -Iran's hanging of protesters -- and display of their lifeless bodies suspended from cranes -- seems to have instilled enough fear to keep people off the streets after months of anti-government unrest.

The success of the crackdown on the worst political turmoil in years is likely to reinforce a view among Iran's hardline rulers that suppression of dissent is the way to keep power.

The achievement may prove shortlived, however, according analysts and experts who spoke to Reuters. They argue the resort to deadly state violence is merely pushing dissent underground, while deepening anger felt by ordinary Iranians about the clerical establishment that has ruled them for four decades.

"It has been relatively successful since the number of people on the streets has decreased," said Saeid Golkar of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, referring to the crackdown and executions.

"However, it has created a massive resentment among Iranians."

Executive Director at the Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, Hadi Ghaemi said the establishment's main focus was to intimidate the population into submission by any means.

"Protests have taken a different shape, but not ended. People are either in prison or they have gone underground because they are determined to find a way to keep fighting," he said.

Defying public fury and international criticism, Iran has handed down dozens of death sentences to intimidate Iranians enraged by the death of Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini, 22.

Her death in the custody of morality police in September 2022 unleashed years of pent up anger in society, over issues ranging from economic misery and discrimination against ethnic minorities to tightening social and political controls.

At least four people have been hanged since the demonstrations started, according to the judiciary, including two protesters on Saturday for allegedly killing a member of the volunteer Basij militia forces.

Amnesty International said last month Iranian authorities are seeking the death penalty for at least 26 others in what it called "sham trials designed to intimidate protesters".

The moves reflect what experts say is the religious leadership's consistent approach to government ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought it to power -- a readiness to use whatever force is needed to crush dissent.

"The regime's primary strategy has always been victory through terrorizing. Suppression is the regime's only solution since it is incompetent and incapable of change or good governance," said Golkar.

ECONOMIC MISERY

Protests, which have slowed considerably since the hangings began, have been at their most intense in the Sunni-populated areas of Iran and are currently mostly limited to those regions.

And yet, the analysts said, a revolutionary spirit that managed to take root across the country during the months of protest may yet survive the security crackdown -- not least because the protesters' grievances remain unaddressed.

With deepening economic misery, largely because of U.S. sanctions over Tehran's disputed nuclear work, many Iranians are feeling the pain of galloping inflation and rising joblessness.

Inflation has soared to over 50%, the highest level in decades. Youth unemployment remains high with over 50% of Iranians being pushed below the poverty line, according to reports by Iran's Statistics Center.

"There is no turning point (back to the status quo), and the regime cannot go back to the era before Mahsa's death," Ghaemi said.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Tehran was banking on repression and violence as its way out of this crisis.

"This might work in the short term but ... it won’t work in the long term," Vatanka said, citing reasons such as Iran's deteriorating economy and its fearless young population who want "big political change, and they will fight for it."

There are no signs that President Ebrahim Raisi or other leaders are trying to come up with fresh policies to try and win over the public. Instead, their attention appears to be fixed on security.

The clerical leadership appears worried that exercising restraint over protesters could make them look weak among their political and paramilitary supporters, the analysts said.

Reuters could not reach officials at Raisi's office for comment.

Golkar said an additional motive for the executions was the leadership's need to satisfy core supporters in organisations like the Basij, the volunteer militia that has been instrumental at countering the spontaneous and leaderless unrest.

KHAMENEI BACKS CRACKDOWN

"The regime wants to message its supporters that it will support them by all means," Golkar said.

To send shockwaves, the authorities imposed travel bans and jail terms on several public figures from athletes to artists and rappers. A karate champion was among those executed.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday signalled the state has no intention of softening its crackdown, saying in a televised speech that those who "set fire to public places have committed treason with no doubt".

Wielding uncompromising state power has been a central theme of Raisi's career. He is under U.S. sanctions over a past that includes what the United States and activists say was his role overseeing the killings of thousands of political prisoners in the 1980s.

When asked about those 1980s killings, Raisi told reporters shortly after his election in 2021 that he should be praised for defending the security of the people.

Ghaemi said the main officials pushing for the executions today were deeply involved in the 1980s killings of prisoners.

"But this is not the 1980s when they carried all those crimes in darkness," he said. "Everything they do gets on social media and attracts huge international attention."

(Writing by Parisa HafeziEditing by Michael Georgy, William Maclean)


Iran Is Using Facial Recognition to Enforce Modesty Laws


Mack DeGeurin
Tue, January 10, 2023 

People gather in protest against the death of Mahsa Amini along the streets on September 19, 2022 in Tehran, Iran.


When the Iranian government announced last month it would move to disband its so-called “morality police” following weeks of historic anti-authoritrain protests, dissidents in the country and abroad saw the concession as a potential turning point for women’s rights. Among its compromises, government officials said they would consider loosening the country’s strict obligatory hijab laws, which have been in place since 1979. However, while accounts of police prying people from city streets for refusing to wear head coverings appear to have dwindled, some advocates fear those same dress-code-defying defectors are instead being targeted by facial recognition systems and penalized afterwards.

“Many people haven’t been arrested in the streets,” Sarzamineh told Wired. “They were arrested at their homes one or two days later.”

University of Oxford researcher Mahsa Alimardani discussed the possibility of facial recognition being used to enforce Iran’s hijab laws in a recent interview with Wired. Alimardani recounted reports of women in Iran who claim to have received mail citations for violating the law without warning or any face-to-face interaction with law enforcement. Those descriptions matched up with first hand accounts from Iranian expat Sarzamineh Shadi, who told the magazine she was aware of multiple women who received citations for flouting hijab rules during protests days after the actual protest occurred.

Iran’s theocratic government has been engaged in a brutal crackdown against protesters following the September death of a 22-year-old Kurdish woman named Mahsa Amini who was detained by the country’s morality police for not wearing a hijab while visiting Tehran and died in police custody. The ensuing nationwide protests have reportedly resulted in more than 19,000 arrests and left at least 300 people dead. And while those dissidents have already won major concessions, broadened efforts by protestors calling for real regime change are squaring off with an advanced state surveillance system years in the making.

Though it’s difficult to confirm the exact methods used to identify individuals on a case-by-case basis, Iranian officials have said they are using facial recognition to enforce its hijab laws. Last September, The Guardian cited an interview with Mohammad Saleh Hashemi Golpayegani, the Secretary of Iran’s Headquarters for Promoting Virtue and Preventing Vice, where the official said the government intended to use surveillance technology in public spaces.

Those detection efforts are made possible in the first place thanks to a seven-year-old government ID system in the country that requires face scans and other biometric identifier. Speaking with Wired, Alimardani said the same database system used to create the country’s national ID cards could simultaneously be used by officials to identify presumed hijab law violators or others considered to have run afoul with the regime.

The Iranian government’s surveillance vision extends far beyond facial recognition too. Since at least 2016, officials have attempted, with varying degrees of success, to create its own internal intranet separated from the world-wide-web and rely solely on Iranian server farms. That effort follows in the footsteps of similar isolated internet systems in China and, more recently, Russia. In the meantime, Iranian officials have repeatedly intervened to shut down access to global internet communications platforms, including during the most recent protests.

Iran sentences former president's daughter to a five-year prison term


FILE PHOTO: Faezeh Rafsanjani, daughter of former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaks to a journalist as she attends a reformist campaign for upcoming parliamentary election, in Tehran

Tue, January 10, 2023 

DUBAI (Reuters) - The activist daughter of former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been sentenced to five years in prison, her lawyer said on Tuesday.

The lawyer did not give detail of the charges against Faezeh Hashemi. But Tehran's public prosecutor indicted Hashemi last year on charges of "propaganda against the system", according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.

State media in September reported she had been arrested for "inciting riots" in Tehran during protests triggered by the death of a young Kurdish woman in police custody.

The demonstrations have posed one of the biggest challenges to Iran's clerical rulers since the 1979 revolution.

"Following the arrest of Ms. Faezeh Hashemi, she was sentenced to five years in prison but the sentence is not final," defence lawyer Neda Shams wrote on her Twitter account.

In 2012, Faezeh Hashemi was sentenced to jail and banned from political activities for “anti state propaganda” dating back to the 2009 disputed presidential election.

Her father died in 2017.

Former president Rafsanjani’s pragmatic policies of economic liberalisation and better relations with the West attracted fierce supporters and equally fierce critics during his life. He was one of the founders of the Islamic Republic.

(Reporting by Dubai Newsroom; Editing by Andrew Heavens)


Iran regime divided on how to tackle protests: analysts


Ian Timberlake
Sat, January 7, 2023


Iran's Islamic clerical regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach.


But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.



The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the Islamic regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

- 'Experimenting' -

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.


The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitised, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".

- Survival -


Celebrities have also been detained, but often for far shorter periods. Star actor Taraneh Alidoosti was freed on bail Wednesday after being held for almost three weeks over her support for the protests, her lawyer said.

Some analysts see this hold-and-release strategy as intimidation but it is also, according to Hashemi, part of the regime "testing the waters, seeing what the reaction is".

The "leniency" sometimes displayed by authorities "is an attempt to prevent further factionalism within the security establishment" as some of its members are alienated by the deadly bloodshed, said Afshin Shahi, associate professor in Middle Eastern studies at Keele University in the UK.



The regime "doesn't seem to have a clear strategy" in response to public anger, he added.

Despite some releases, other prominent figures have spent months in prison. These include longtime activist Arash Sadeghi and the two Iranian journalists who helped expose Amini's case.

In early December, Prosecutor General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri said the morality police had "been abolished". But no one else has confirmed this.

The announcement reflects the internal debate and shows that "at least one section of the ruling regime" favours a less brutal way of enforcing the female dress code, said Hashemi.

According to Ehteshami, some in authority "are now beginning to talk about a compromise", though it is too early to know what that would be.

But "in broad terms I don't think they have what the people want", which is wholesale change, the details of which have not been defined, he said.

The regime, however, has historically shown an ability to "make concessions when it has to", according to Hashemi.

"People forget that this regime has survived for 44 years because it can be very intelligent, very clever, very Machiavellian in terms of what it has to do to survive," he said.

it/jkb/lg/leg

IT'S A JEWISH STATE NOT A DEMOCRACY
Israeli Democracy May Not Survive Netanyahu's New Government

Etan Nechin
Tue, January 10, 2023

Israeli protester dressed in a convict uniform and a

Israeli protester dressed in a convict uniform and a Benjamin Netanyahu mask lifts his handcuffed arms in the air next to a Crime Minister protesters during the demonstration. Thousands rally in Tel Aviv to protest against Netanyahus far-right government and judicial overhaul. Credit - Matan Golan-SOPA Images/LightRocket

Less than two weeks in, it’s becoming apparent that Israel’s new government led by Benjamin Netanyahu is the most hardline extreme-right Israel has ever known. But even more disturbingly it is actively working to dismantle Israel’s fragile checks and balances and to give unprecedented powers to the executive and legislative branches.

In his inaugural speech, Netanyahu said, speaking to his opponents, that “losing in an election doesn’t spell the end of democracy.” But many fears that this government spells a threat to democracy and civil society.

On January 3, newly appointed Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted terrorist-sympathizer who in the past incited against assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, visited Al Aqsa Mosque, an act security experts warned might spark a regional war.

A day later, Yariv Levin, the newly appointed Justice Minster, laid out his plan to reform the judicial system. The plan includes giving the Knesset—Israel’s legislative branch—the power to override court rulings with a simple majority of 61 lawmakers out of 120, including legislation struck down by the Supreme Court for constitutional reasons; to greater government power in appointing justices; and having ministers appoint their legal counsels and not from the Justice Ministry.

Levin’s plans could be labeled a constitutional crisis, but Israel does not have a constitution, and the separation between the legislative and executive is almost non-existent. For Israel’s liberal society, the Supreme Court is seen as the only institution that can curb governmental actions and legislation passed by a parliamentary majority.

The opposition is calling this plan a regime change designed to get Netanyahu out of his ongoing trial for bribery and corruption and to enable Arye Dery, the leader of the Orthodox party Shas, to be appointed a cabinet minister despite being convicted and sentenced to a suspended prison term.

If this plan succeeds, it will have a broader impact than just getting Netanyahu and Dery out of their political woes. An untethered right-wing, Orthodox government with a majority in parliament will be able to disqualify Arab parties from running, annex the West Bank without giving rights to Palestinians, give surplus budgets for preferred sectors, discriminate against the LGBT and other marginalized communities, crush state education, dismantle social services, and silence dissent.

It could spell an end to the religious status quo that has kept Israel in balance without a clear separation between church and state, like exists in the U.S. There has been a give and take between Jewish institutions and civil society: an Orthodox rabbinate that oversees Jewish life, shutdown of public life on Saturdays and funding for Yeshivas in exchange for the Orthodox leaders not intervening in everyday life, economy, the military, and culture.

Now that Orthodox parties have unprecedented power, they’re demanding more concessions from liberal society. The United Torah Party has secured extra funding for their communities, especially men who don’t work and don’t serve in the army. This is a measure that will increase the burden on working taxpayers. More so, Netanyahu gave power over schools to Avi Maoz, the head of the homophobic Noam party, who claimed that forms of ‘liberal religion’ are ‘darkness’ that must be expelled and whose party had a list of LGBTQ media workers.

The new government is shaping to be the biggest challenge to Israel’s civil society. It aims to alter the fragile balance of power that has kept Israel afloat, both nationally and internationally. The possibility of a full-scale annexation isn’t far-fetched. Given the right circumstances, like another Trump win in 2024, along with strengthening ties with the Gulf states against Iran, Israel might take over more and more areas in the West Bank and even return to Gaza, as some lawmakers are hoping, turning Israel into a pariah state.

Netanyahu has been trying to calm liberals, mostly abroad, but his words don’t seem to align with the members of coalition: He boasts that his coalition has a gay Speaker of the Knesset while homophobic, racist lawmakers and ministers in his coalition suggest doctors could refuse to treat gay patients and warn against intermarriage. He speaks about free market capitalism with Jordan Peterson while subsidizing Orthodox communities and the settlements project.

Netanyahu has effectively provided the most vitriolic elements in Israeli-Jewish society political immunity and ministries from where they can advance their extreme agendas. Beyond rolling back the policies of the previous short-lived government, they will exact revenge on the left, Arab citizens of Israel, and Palestinians.

The question now is can liberal Israelis respond?

Since the ebb of the Second Intifada and the failed Arab Spring, Israelis have been living with the belief they will never pay the price for the occupation: The separation wall, limited Israeli casualties in operations, normalization with Arab states through the Abraham Accords, a transformation of the Israeli market from quasi-socialist to American-style capitalism, made the occupation invisible, and Israel largely palatable to investors and tourists.

Under Netanyahu’s previous reign, many voices on the left were marginalized, attacked, and muzzled. In the November 2022 elections, Meretz, that party that is the bastion of liberal Israel failed to cross the threshold for the first time in its existence. The reason why so many young people and soldiers voted for the hard right isn’t just demographic. Twenty years of right-wing governments that stalled any chance for peace negotiations and sowed divisions within Israeli society resulted in a generation that grew up with little ability to articulate a different, hopeful vision for the future.

But while Israelis did vote for this coalition, polls show that so far the majority aren’t backing his agenda to weaken the judiciary. Even for the many who voted for him, the specter of this coalition has served as a rude awakening.

Israeli hi-tech executives penned an open letter warning Netanyahu that this government will have “devastating consequences for the economy.” More than 200 Israeli activists and human rights organizations sent a letter to U.S. Ambassador Thomas Nides of ” inciting genocide against the Palestinian people. “More than 50 municipal officials and 300 school principals said they would resist Maoz’s educational reforms. On Saturday, January 7, thousands took to the streets to protest the government. Organizers vowed to turn up the pressure on for the weeks and months to come.

This backlash comes as more voices are warning about the corrosive power of the new government, U.S. lawmakers who are slowly working to hold Israel accountable, and a U.N. resolution passed to ask the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to give an opinion on the legal consequences of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories.

With the ascension of this unapologetic extreme-right government, it seems that the world is finally awakening to the fact that Israel isn’t the only democracy in the Middle East. Many Israelis are awakening to the fact that Netanyahu, who for three decades has been at the center of Israeli and world politics, isn’t the protector of Israel, but a threat to Israel’s fragile and tenuous democracy.
India is about to pass China as the world's most populous country


Marquise Francis
·National Reporter
Tue, January 10, 2023 

India is projected to see an explosion in its urban population in the coming decades, but its cities are already overburdened. (Punit Paranjpe/AFP via Getty Images)

India is expected to surpass China and become the world’s most populous nation within the next three months, according to a recent report by the United Nations’ population division, marking a seismic shift on the global stage in a trend with significant social and economic impact for both countries.

“Most people think India's economy is still a fraction of what it could be in the future, which means there's so much promise,” Dr. Audrey Truschke, an associate professor of South Asian History at Rutgers University, told Yahoo News, adding that much of the potential is due in large part to India being “such a young country.”

Of the rapidly growing 1.41 billion people in India, about 1 in 4 are under the age of 15 and nearly half are under 25. By comparison, China’s population is about 1.45 billion, but those under 25 make up only a quarter of the population.


“The Indian subcontinent has always supported a robust human population,” Truschke said. “India has also long been compared to China, and they have for a long time traded with one another. So as much changes over the course of human history, that's something that recurs — both the dense population of the subcontinent, as well as the comparison with China.”

Shoppers crowd a market area in New Delhi on Nov. 12, 2022. (Anindito Mukherjee/Getty Images)

Since 1950, India and China have accounted for an estimated 35% of the world’s population growth, with China emerging as a global industrial power. Combined, the two population epicenters are a significant slice of the world’s roughly 8 billion people.

But China’s one-child policy, which was introduced in 1980, drastically reduced its birth rate — and redirected its economic prospects. In recent years, women have been allowed to have up to three children, but the average birth rate still sits at 1.2. China's population is set to peak in the coming years and projected to decline. This means that the older, nonworking population will have to rely on individual single children, many of whom will probably face economic difficulties caring for two parents and four grandparents. As a result, many elderly Chinese will be left to rely on a public pension system that is reportedly set to run out of money by 2035, despite recent efforts by the government to boost revenue.

“Without a quality pension support system, young people would be reluctant to get married and have children, [and] middle-aged people are double-burdened to care for the young and the elderly,” Zhang Jingwei, a researcher at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, told the South China Morning Post. “Only when the elderly can enjoy the fruits of the reforms and are guaranteed institutionally happy twilight years, anxiety at different age groups can be solved and all of society’s energy can be released.”

An elderly man and woman are pushed in wheelchairs along a street in Beijing on May 11, 2021. (Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images)

Population growth in China is flatlining, and its supply of cheap labor may follow suit. Despite stubborn unemployment in pockets of the country, the shortage of skilled manual labor is becoming more evident.

India and its growing population of more than a billion people could pick up some of the slack, but its growth rate is also declining, and its industrial infrastructure is not as robust as China’s. And much of India’s population growth is centered in its poorer regions, especially in the north.

By 2050, data shows that India is expected to provide more than a sixth of the world’s population of working age (15 to 64 years old).
Death Toll in Peru Rises to 46 Amid Extraordinary Violence



Mitra Taj and Julie Turkewitz
Tue, January 10, 2023 

LIMA, Peru — At least 17 people were killed in southern Peru in a matter of hours Monday amid ongoing protests over the ouster of the former president, an extraordinary spasm of violence that led to criticism of excessive force by the military and the police.

The clashes heightened concerns that the protests would spread and lead to more bloodshed.

Peru, the fifth-most-populous nation in Latin America, has been the scene of violent demonstrations since mid-December, when the country’s leftist president, Pedro Castillo, who had promised to address long-standing issues of poverty and inequality, attempted to dissolve Congress and rule by decree. The move was widely condemned as unconstitutional, and Castillo was arrested and replaced by his vice president.

Supporters of Castillo, many of them living in impoverished rural regions, quickly took to the streets to demand new general elections, with many saying they had been stripped of the right to be governed by the man they had voted into office just one year earlier.

The violence, in the southern city of Juliaca near the border with Bolivia on Monday, marked the deadliest clash between civilians and armed actors in Peru in at least two decades, when the country emerged from a dictatorship as well as from a long and brutal fight with a violent guerrilla group, a conflict that left at least 70,000 people dead, many of them civilians.

On Tuesday, Jennie Dador, executive secretary of the National Human Rights Coordinator of Peru, an accountability group, blamed “indiscriminate use of force” by state security forces for Monday’s deaths.

“What happened yesterday was really a massacre,’’ she said. “These were extrajudicial killings.”

Peru’s interior minister, Victor Rojas, said that the protests in Juliaca had begun peacefully but that they turned violent around 3 p.m., when about 9,000 protesters tried to take control of the airport and people armed with makeshift guns and explosives attacked police.

Rojas said that security forces had acted within legal limits to defend themselves. “It became impossible to control the mob,” he said.

The country’s demonstrations began shortly after authorities arrested Castillo on charges of rebellion on Dec. 7. Over the past month, some protests have been peaceful; in other cases marchers have used slingshots to fling rocks, set up roadblocks on vital highways, burned government buildings and taken over airports.

When the new president, Dina Boluarte, a former ally of Castillo’s, declared a state of emergency in December, the military took to the streets to maintain order.

Monday’s violence brings the national death toll since Castillo’s ouster to at least 46 people, according to Peru’s ombudsman’s office. All of the dead have been civilians, the office said, with 39 people killed amid protests and seven killed in traffic accidents related to the chaos or as a result of protesters’ blockades.

Hundreds of police officers and civilians have been injured.

Not included in that count is the body of a person found dead Tuesday in a burned police vehicle in Juliaca, after the interior minister said that the vehicle had been attacked.

The violent convulsions in Peru come as South America faces significant threats to many of its young democracies, with polls showing exceptionally low levels of trust in government institutions, politicians and the media.

On Sunday, supporters of Brazil’s former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, stormed Congress and other buildings in the capital, fueled by a belief that the election Bolsonaro lost in October had been rigged. In nearby Bolivia, protests have erupted in the economic hub of Santa Cruz following the arrest of the opposition governor, whose supporters say he is being persecuted by the ruling government.

In Peru, the most recent bloodshed occurred in the region of Puno, a heavily Indigenous part of the country, after villagers from remote Aymara communities arrived by the thousands to the city of Juliaca.

Many are calling for Castillo to be returned to office, a political nonstarter in the capital of Lima, and a move that would be illegal.

The chief demand is new general elections, which electoral authorities said could happen as early as late this year. Congress has rejected such a tight time frame, with many representatives reluctant to give up their seats, but has backed a proposal for a vote in April 2024.

By early Tuesday afternoon, Boluarte still hadn’t commented on the unrest since confirming the first civilian killed a day earlier, when she sounded exasperated with protesters’ demands.

“The only thing in my hands is bringing forward elections, and we’ve already proposed it,” Boluarte said at an event Monday. “During peace, anything can be achieved, but amid violence and chaos it gets harder.”

© 2023 The New York Times Company
Proposed Nova Scotia wind farms on track, says company, not affected by NSP issues

Tue, January 10, 2023 

Halifax-based Natural Forces Developments is one of the winning applicants in Nova Scotia's largest ever program to buy electricity from wind power. (Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press - image credit)

Halifax-based Natural Forces Developments will find out next month if it gets conditional environmental approval for two wind farms it wants to build in Nova Scotia.

Last August, the independent power company — in partnership with the province's 13 Mi'kmaw communities — was one of the winning applicants in the province's largest ever program to buy electricity generated by wind.

Its proposal for a wind farm at Benjamins Mill, about 13 kilometres outside of Windsor, N.S., was selected by an independent administrator overseeing the competition. The site would generate up to 150 megawatts of electricity.


"The project is on track, is on schedule, it's on budget. We are due to be online, fully commissioned and commercially operating by [the first quarter] of 2024," said Austen Hughes, vice-president of project finance.

On Jan. 6, Natural Forces added updated information to its environmental assessment [EA] application for a 28-turbine wind farm at Benjamins Mill. Phase 1 involves eight turbines at the site.

On Dec. 22, the company filed an updated EA for another proposed 12-turbine wind farm at Westchester, 17 kilometres outside Oxford in Colchester County. This project is not part of the province's wind procurement award.


Natural Forces Developments Ltd.

Benjamin Mills is one of five winning projects that are expected to generate 372 megawatts or 1,373 gigawatt hours per year of electricity — approximately 12 per cent of Nova Scotia's total energy consumption.

The environmental submissions triggered a regulatory countdown.

In late February, the minister of Environment and Climate Change will decide if the projects get conditional environmental approval.

"We're continuing to work with the rate-based procurement administrator and Nova Scotia Power and from this point forward is just focusing on finalizing the power purchase agreement with the utility and that's the agreement that really allows the project to sell power to NSP," Hughes said.

Natural Forces Developments Ltd.

Wskijnu'k Mtmo'taqnuow Agency Ltd., a corporate body owned by the province's 13 Mi'kmaw communities, is Natural Forces' partner.

WMA's president, Crystal Nicholas, says the goal is to have a power purchase agreement for the Benjamins Mill project this year.

"This is a win-win by providing green energy to Nova Scotia, at a competitive price, while also bringing economic and other benefits to all 13 Mi'kmaw communities in Nova Scotia. We look forward to seeing this project through," Nicholas told CBC News in an emailed statement.

Not affected by NSP pause


Nova Scotia Power's decision to step back from its own renewable energy project does not affect Natural Forces and the other successful proponents.

The utility pressed pause when the provincial government imposed a two-year rate, spending and profit cap on the company.

"We are re-evaluating our investments in renewable energy projects like wind and batteries. These types of projects along with transmission expansion with New Brunswick were part of the Eastern Clean Energy Initiative and are currently on pause," said Nova Scotia Power spokesperson Jacqueline Foster in an emailed response to CBC News.

"This decision has no impact on third-party wind projects like what Natural Forces are developing."

Buying electricity generated from wind turbines is part of the province's effort to have 80 per cent of its power supplied by renewable sources by 2030.

Foster said Nova Scotia Power has seen a significant increase in the number of requests from power generators to connect to its transmission lines as part of the provincial wind procurement process.

"We are actively working through them. It does take time to work through them sequentially to fully understand the system impacts and design configurations, however we are proceeding as planned in terms of schedule," she said.

As for Natural Forces, Hughes said the company is working collaboratively with the utility.

"We don't see any issues moving forward. From our perspective, nothing has changed," he said.

"We still have the 80 per cent commitment for renewables in Nova Scotia by 2030 and our projects, along with the other proponents, will work to make that happen. It's a really exciting time."
Mpox has faded in the US. Who deserves the credit?

Tue, January 10, 2023 



NEW YORK (AP) — Less than six months ago, mpox was an exploding health crisis. What had been an obscure disease from Africa was ripping through European and U.S. gay communities. Precious doses of an unproven vaccine were in short supply. International officials declared health emergencies.

Today, reports of new cases are down to a trickle in the U.S. Health officials are shutting down emergency mobilizations. The threat seems to have virtually disappeared from the public consciousness.

“We're in a remarkably different place,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University infectious diseases expert. “It's really impressive how that peak has come down to very, very low levels.”

So who deserves the credit? It's an unsettled question, but experts cite a combination of factors.

Some commend public health officials. Others say more of the credit should go to members of the gay and bisexual community who took their own steps to reduce disease spread when the threat became clear. Some wonder if characteristics of the virus itself played a role.

“It's a mixed story" in which some things could have gone better but others went well, said Dr. Tom Frieden, a former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

CASES SOAR, THEN FALL

Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, is a rare disease caused by infection with a virus that's in the same family as the one that causes smallpox. It is endemic in parts of Africa, where people have been infected through bites from rodents or small animals, but it was not known to spread easily among people.

Mpox cases began emerging in Europe and the U.S. in May, mostly among men who have sex with men. Cases escalated rapidly in dozens of countries in June and July, around the time of gay pride events. The infections were rarely fatal, but many people suffered painful skin lesions for weeks.

In late July, the World Health Organization declared an international health crisis. In early August, the U.S. declared a public health emergency.

Soon after, the outbreak began diminishing. The daily average of newly reported U.S. cases went from nearly 500 in August to about 100 in October. Now, there are fewer than five new U.S. cases per day. (Europe has seen a similar drop.)

Experts said a combination of factors likely turned the tide.

VACCINATIONS

Health officials caught an early break: An existing two-dose vaccine named Jynneos, developed to fight smallpox, was also approved for use against the monkeypox.

Initially, only a few thousand doses were available in the U.S., and most countries had none at all. Shipping and regulatory delays left local health departments unable to meet demand for shots.

In early August, U.S. health officials decided to stretch the limited supply by giving people just one-fifth the usual dose. The plan called for administering the vaccine with an injection just under the skin, rather than into deeper tissue.

Some in the public health community worried that it was a big decision based on a small amount of research — a single 2015 study. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since then has confirmed there was no difference in vaccine performance between the two methods.

“They got criticized for the revised dosing strategy, but it was the right call," said Frieden, who is currently president of Resolve to Save Lives, a non-profit organization focused on preventing epidemics.

Cases, however, had already begun falling by the time the government made the switch.

COMMUNITY OUTREACH


The current CDC director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, cited efforts to educate doctors on how to better diagnose and treat mpox. Other experts said that even more important was outreach to the sexually active gay and bisexual men most at risk.

In the first months of the outbreak, the government was cautious about focusing warnings too intently on gay and bisexual men for fear of stigmatizing the men and — in so doing — undermining efforts to identify infections. (Indeed, in November the WHO changed the name of the disease from monkeypox to mpox in an effort to reduce stigma.)

“They were a little coy about the population principally affected,” Schaffner said.

Many say queer activists and community organizations stepped up to fill the void, quickly offering frank education and assistance. In an online survey conducted in early August, many men who have sex with men reported having fewer sexual encounters and partners because of the outbreak.

“The success was really due to grassroots activities,” said Amira Roess, a George Mason University professor of epidemiology and global health. Leaders in the gay community “took it upon themselves to step in when the government response was really lacking” in a way that recalled what happened during the plodding government response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1980s, she said.

Among those efforts was called RESPND-MI — Rapid Epidemiologic Study of Prevalence, Networks, and Demographics of Monkeypox Infection. The grant-funded organization put out transmission-prevention messaging, conducted a community-led survey of mpox symptoms, and mapped the social and sexual networks of queer and transgender people in New York City.

Nick Diamond, a leader of the effort, said government response improved only after gay activists pressured officials and did a lot of the outreach and education themselves.

“A lot of HIV activists knew that it would be up to us to start a response to monkeypox," he said.

But Diamond also noted another possible reason for the declines: Spread of mpox at LGBTQ celebrations in June — coupled with a lack of testing and vaccinations — likely contributed to the July surge. “A lot of people came out of Pride, after being in close contact, symptomatic,” he said. They suffered blisters and scabs, bringing home the message to other at-risk men that the virus was a very real danger.

BIOLOGY VS. BEHAVIOR


There are also possible explanations that have more to do with biology than behavior.

The number of new infections may have been limited by increases in infection-acquired immunity in the men active in the social networks that fueled the outbreak, CDC scientists said in a recent report.

Past research has suggested there may be limits in how many times monkeypox virus will spread from person to person, noted Stephen Morse, a Columbia University virologist.

“The monkeypox virus essentially loses steam after a couple of rounds in humans," Morse said. "Everyone credits the interventions, but I don't know what the reason really is.”

___

Maria Cheng in London contributed to this report.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Mike Stobbe, The Associated Press

Biological characteristics, biosafety prevention and control strategies for the 2022 multi-country outbreak of monkeypox


Peer-Reviewed Publication

COMPUSCRIPT LTD

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.11.001

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), which is a potential biological warfare agent of bioterrorism and poses the greatest threat to the world’s public biosafety and health after variola virus (VARV). While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has not ended yet, monkeypox is spreading menacingly. The first case of monkeypox in a nonendemic country was confirmed on May 6th, 2022, while the first imported case from Asia was found on June 21st. There were more than 16 thousand reported cases as of July 23rd, the day the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the global monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) at the same level as smallpox and COVID-19; while there were more than 53 thousand cases as of September 1st. Therefore, we will propose relevant biosafety prevention and control strategies after analyzing the etiology of the 2022 multi-country monkeypox outbreak from the biological feature, transmissibility, epidemic, and variability of MPXV.

 

Keywords: Monkeypox virus; Re-emerging infectious disease; Biological characteristics; Biosafety strategy

 

# # # # # #

 

Biosafety and Health is sponsored by the Chinese Medical Association, managed by National Institute for Viral

Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC).

For more information, please visit https://www.journals.elsevier.com/biosafety-and-health

Editorial Board: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/biosafety-and-health/about/editorial-board

Biosafety and Health is available on ScienceDirect (https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/biosafety-and-health).

Submissions to Biosafety and Health may be made using Editorial Manager®

(https://www.editorialmanager.com/bsheal/default.aspx).

CiteScore: 4.8

ISSN 2590-0536

 

# # # # # #

 

Article reference: Chudan Liang, Jun Qian, Linna Liu, Biological characteristics, biosafety prevention and control strategies for the 2022 multi-country outbreak of monkeypox, Biosafety and Health, Volume 4, Issue 6, 2022, Pages 376-385, ISSN 2590-0536, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.11.001


U$
Federal utility chooses gas plant despite EPA concerns


Tue, January 10, 2023 

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — The nation's largest public utility has decided to build a new natural gas plant despite concerns from the Environmental Protection Agency that its analysis of alternatives is faulty and that the project is at odds with President Biden's clean energy goals.

Tennessee Valley Authority President and CEO Jeff Lyash on Tuesday signed a decision to move forward with a 1,450-megawatt natural gas plant at the site of the utility's coal-burning Cumberland Fossil Plant, near Cumberland City, Tennessee. TVA plans to retire the first of two coal burning units there by the end of 2026 and plans to have the gas plant up and running before then.

TVA provides power to 10 million people in parts of seven Southern states.


The utility provided the EPA with a final environmental impact statement in early December analyzing alternatives for replacing the Cumberland plant. It compared the costs and benefits of two types of natural gas plants as well as a solar array with battery storage. The analysis recommended a combined cycle natural gas plant as the preferred alternative. It determined that the solar array would cost $1.8 billion more and could not be completed by the utility's 2026 deadline.

The EPA issued a detailed response to the analysis on Friday, writing that TVA relied on “inaccurate underlying economic information” and “may continue to underestimate the potential costs of the combined cycle gas plant and overstate the cost of solar and storage.”

TVA used a “misleading” measure of comparison to show that solar and storage would be more expensive than gas, according to EPA. TVA also failed to account for the opportunities presented by recent federal legislation providing $375 billion over 10 years for clean energy projects. And TVA failed to consider that the cost of renewables is declining while gas prices are expected to rise, the EPA said.

In addition to the economic analysis, the EPA is critical of TVA's environmental analysis. The utility found similar greenhouse gas impacts for solar and gas. When factoring in the social costs of greenhouse gases, TVA found the solar alternative would save $4.8 billion over the “no action” alternative — that is, keeping the coal plant in place — while the combined cycle gas plant would save $4.4 billion.

But the EPA said TVA used outdated social cost estimates and falsely asserted that there is "legal uncertainty" around the newest estimates.

Although TVA stated that the environmental impacts are relatively close for all alternatives, the utility's own analysis results in a $3 billion difference between gas and solar over the 30-year life of the project, according to the EPA.

“Moreover, the document does not reflect the urgent need to take climate action” despite TVA's own strategic plan calling for a “deep carbon reduction,” EPA states.

Biden has set a goal of a carbon-pollution-free energy sector by 2035 that TVA has said it can’t achieve without technological breakthroughs in nuclear generation and energy storage. TVA has set a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2035, compared with 2005 levels.

Scientists have warned that failing to meet the 2035 target will only lead to more intense and more frequent extreme weather events, as well as droughts, floods and wildfires. Teams of meteorologists across the world have predicted there is nearly a 50-50 chance that Earth will hit a key warming mark that international agreements have tried to prevent by 2026.

EPA's letter states that TVA failed to incorporate several suggested improvements, including using energy efficiency and demand management to reduce the need for new electricity. Demand management helps customers change their usage patterns to flatten peak demand periods and could "help avoid rolling blackouts like those TVA implemented recently,” EPA wrote.

The Cumberland plant and a second coal-burning plant, Bull Run, went offline during a deep freeze over Christmas weekend. Along with unspecified “issues” at some of TVA’s gas plants, the outages forced TVA to resort to rolling blackouts for the first time in its 90-year history. TVA has said it is investigating what went wrong but has provided few details.

TVA did seem to take one of EPA's suggestions into consideration. Lyash's Tuesday decision in favor of the gas plant says the utility will design it to accommodate modifications that would allow it to capture carbon and use hydrogen fuel if those become viable options in the future.

Already, TVA is facing a lawsuit that claims it violated federal law by approving a gas-power plant that is under construction at its retired coal-burning Johnsonville Fossil Plant without properly assessing the environmental and climate impacts.

The Center for Biological Diversity issued a statement on Tuesday calling for TVA's board of directors to take action. Six new Biden-appointed board members were sworn in last Thursday, making up a majority of the utility's nine-member board of directors. However, a previous board had already delegated the decision on the Cumberland plant to Lyash.

“TVA’s gas plants failed miserably during the December storm, and now its CEO is making the grave mistake of doubling down on fossil fuels,” Gaby Sarri-Tobar, with the Center for Biological Diversity’s energy justice program, said in a news release. “Our country’s largest federal utility is dependent on fossil fuels when it should be leading the transition to 100% renewable energy.”

TVA also plans to retire Cumberland's second coal-burning unit by the end of 2028. The utility has not yet said how it will replace the power lost from that retirement.

Travis Loller, The Associated Press
Agency study: traffic crashes cost U.S. society $340 billion in 2019

David Shepardson
Tue, January 10, 2023 

Traffic is pictured at twilight along 2nd Ave. in Manhattan


By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. auto safety regulators said Tuesday in a landmark report that motor vehicle crashes, which are rising fast, cost American society $340 billion in 2019.

In a comprehensive economic impact study, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) examined the costs of a single year of crashes that killed around 36,500 people, injured 4.5 million, and damaged 23 million vehicles.

The crashes directly cost taxpayers $30 billion, and society as a whole $340 billion, the NHTSA found. When quality-of-life valuations were included, the total cost to society ran to $1.37 trillion - equivalent to 1.6% of U.S. economic output.

Distracted driving alone cost $98 billion, while the costs of traffic congestion, including travel delays and added fuel usage, were put at $36 billion.

NHTSA last estimated the societal cost of crashes in 2010, when it put the total at $242 billion.

U.S. traffic deaths are now rising sharply.

In 2021 alone, they jumped 10.5% to 42,915, the highest number killed on American roads in a single year since 2005.

Traffic deaths declined in the first nine months of 2022 by 0.2% but the fatality rate is still higher than in any pre-pandemic year since 2007.

Deputy Transportation Secretary Polly Trottenberg said Monday the agency is committed to addressing the death toll.

"We want to figure out what works," Trottenberg said. "We don't want to let ourselves off the hook."

The number of pedestrians killed jumped 13% in 2021 to 7,342, the most since 1981. The number of cyclists killed rose 5% to 985, the most since at least 1980, NHTSA said earlier this year.

In the first six months of 2022, U.S. pedestrian deaths rose another 2% and cyclist deaths jumped another 8%, NHTSA said Monday.

(Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Kevin Liffey)