Energy Fuels' White Mesa mill in Utah is the only currently operating conventional uranium mill in the USA for ore from underground mining operations. (Image: US NRC/Energy Fuels)
February 16, 2026
By Ioritz Abecia Bermudez
For decades, the global energy conversation was dominated by the thick, black sludge of crude oil and the invisible flow of natural gas. Maps were drawn and wars were fought over pipelines and shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the world pivots toward a decarbonized future, a different element—dense, silvery-white, and deceptively quiet—has reclaimed its seat at the head of the geopolitical table: Uranium.
Uranium is no longer just the “spicy rock” associated with Cold War anxieties and the specter of “Mutually Assured Destruction.” Today, it is the primary fuel for the carbon-free baseload power that modern economies crave. Its importance is not merely technical; it is a profound lever of statecraft. To understand the geopolitics of the 21st century, one must understand the journey of uranium from the depths of a Kazakh mine to the core of a reactor in Illinois or Lyon.
1. The Energy Density Paradigm
To appreciate why nations obsess over uranium, we must first look at the physics. Uranium’s energy density is unparalleled.
A single uranium fuel pellet, roughly the size of a gummy bear, contains as much energy as three barrels of oil, one ton of coal, or 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas.
This density creates a unique geopolitical advantage: stockpiling. While a nation can only store enough oil or gas for a few months before storage costs and logistics become prohibitive, a country can easily store several years’ worth of nuclear fuel in a modest-sized warehouse. This inherent “energy security in a box” makes nuclear power a hedge against the volatile “just-in-time” supply chains of fossil fuels.
2. The Geography of Extraction: A Fragile Monopoly
Unlike oil, which is found in many regions (even if concentrated in the Middle East), the production of uranium is remarkably top-heavy. The “Big Three” of uranium mining—Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia—control the vast majority of the world’s supply.
Top Uranium Producers (2023 Estimates)
Country Percentage of Global Production Strategic Alignment
Kazakhstan ~43% Multi-vector (Leans Russia/China)
Canada ~15% Western/NATO
Namibia ~11% Non-aligned (Heavy Chinese Investment)
Australia ~8% Western/AUKUS
Uzbekistan ~7% Central Asian/Independent
The dominance of Kazakhstan is the most significant geopolitical reality in the sector. Through its state-owned giant, Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan produces nearly half of the world’s uranium. Because Kazakhstan is landlocked and historically tied to Moscow, much of its export infrastructure has traditionally run through Russian territory. This gives the Kremlin a degree of “soft” oversight over the world’s most vital uranium supply line.
3. The Enrichment Bottleneck: Russia’s Hidden Ace
If mining is the first act of the play, enrichment is the climax. Natural uranium consists mostly of the isotope 238U, which is not “fissile” (it won’t sustain a chain reaction). To work in a light-water reactor, the concentration of the isotope 235U must be increased from its natural state of 0.7% to about 3%–5%.
This is where the West faces its greatest vulnerability. Russia controls approximately 40% of the world’s uranium conversion and enrichment capacity. While the U.S. and Europe have moved aggressively to sanction Russian oil and coal following the invasion of Ukraine, nuclear fuel was—for a long time—conspicuously left off the list. Why? Because Western reactors, particularly in Eastern Europe and the United States, were physically and economically dependent on Russian-enriched uranium. Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation, isn’t just a company; it is a diplomatic tool that creates 60-year dependencies between Russia and any nation that buys its reactors and fuel.
4. The “New Great Game” in Africa and Central Asia
As the West seeks to “de-risk” from Russia, the geopolitical competition has shifted to Africa, specifically Niger and Namibia.
The 2023 coup in Niger sent shockwaves through the European Union, particularly France. For decades, France (which derives ~70% of its electricity from nuclear) relied on Niger for about 15% to 17% of its uranium. When the junta took power, the threat of a supply cutoff highlighted a bitter truth: the transition to “green” energy doesn’t eliminate foreign dependence; it simply shifts the map from the oil fields of Riyadh to the mines of Arlit.
Meanwhile, China has been playing the long game. Chinese state-owned enterprises have been aggressively buying equity in Namibian mines and securing long-term offtake agreements in Kazakhstan. China’s goal is clear: to build a “Nuclear Silk Road.” By securing the raw materials now, they ensure that when the world eventually pivots to Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), China will be the one holding the keys to the fuel supply.
5. The Renaissance: Climate Change as a Geopolitical Driver
For years, nuclear energy was the “black sheep” of the environmental movement. However, the reality of “Net Zero” targets has forced a massive U-turn. At COP28, more than 20 countries pledged to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050.
This shift has turned uranium from a niche commodity into a strategic asset.The United States is now subsidizing the revival of its domestic enrichment industry (HALEU) to break the Russian monopoly.
Japan is restarting its fleet, recognizing that a resource-poor island nation cannot survive on wind and solar alone.
Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Romania) is choosing American or South Korean reactor technology over Russian designs to anchor their security architecture within the Western sphere.
6. The Risks: Proliferation and Sovereignty
The geopolitical importance of uranium is inseparable from the risk of proliferation. The same technology used to enrich uranium to 5% for a power plant can, with more time and centrifuges, enrich it to 90% for a weapon.
Consequently, the uranium trade is the most regulated commerce on Earth. Nations that provide nuclear technology and fuel (the “suppliers”) wield immense “normative power.” They can dictate the non-proliferation standards of the “buyers.” When the U.S. or South Korea sells a reactor, they aren’t just selling hardware; they are exporting a legal and regulatory framework that lasts for nearly a century. This creates a “geopolitical marriage” that is much harder to divorce than a simple oil supply contract.
7. Conclusion: The Yellowcake Horizon
Uranium is the ultimate paradox. It is a source of nearly limitless, clean energy that can save a warming planet, yet it remains tethered to the most dangerous weapons ever devised. In the current geopolitical climate, it has become the “invisible gold.”
The nations that will lead the 21st century are those that can secure a “cradle-to-grave” nuclear cycle: from the mines in the Outback to the high-tech enrichment halls, and finally to the deep geological repositories for waste. As we move away from carbon, we aren’t moving away from resource competition. We are simply trading the geopolitics of the pipe for the geopolitics of the pellet.
The struggle for uranium is a struggle for autonomy. In a world of volatile weather and even more volatile politics, the ability to split the atom is the ultimate guarantee of a nation’s light—and its power.
Ioritz Abecia Bermudez
Ioritz Abecia Bermúdez is a Graduate in a Double Degree in Law and Labor Relations from the University of Deusto. Currently pursuing a Master’s Degree in Access to the Legal Profession. He has a strong professional interest in Labor Law and Corporate Law, with a dedicated focus on the evolving landscape of International and European Union Law.
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