Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Race, Capital, and Minneapolis



 February 10, 2026

Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

As George Floyd calls out for his mother, we see a crisis of overproduction. This brutal murder by the state can tell us something, not about Floyd himself, who every political actor co-opts for their own agenda, and thus murders an innocent man all over again, but rather about capitalism.

For the right, Floyd is a criminal and deserves to be killed. Candace Owens, herself a victim of a hate crime, led the charge. And yet, where was the principled response? Did Floyd have to follow bourgeois moral law to live? For the liberals, Floyd became a symbol of anti-racism, to be manifested in boardrooms, and ignored in the millions of homeless, prisoners, cancer allies, ghettoes, where populations are deemed surplus places for experiments of capital, flooded with guns, drugs, toxins, and agents of the state. For the left, Floyd becomes a radical, and we read into him potential victory rather than do the honorable thing and admit his murder was another reminder of our defeat and an invitation not to gain hope, but rather discipline ourselves to productive despair and clarify our purpose.

On the streets of Minneapolis, the same Mayor reigns. Elected by a coalition of the rich in the Southwest and the poor in the Northwest, while the base for socialism, the discontented hippies in the Northeast, and the optimistic students in the Southeast, oppose Mayor Jacob Frey. Frey represents a break, from the left, and the right, a defender of the police, a dissident against ICE.

The call for defunding the police has never seemed more obvious in the face of the surge. In a real crisis, any effort by the police to intervene against the federal government produces a crisis, a potential for civil war. Meanwhile, the alternatives to policing, called for by activists, become all the more urgent. These services are done, remarkably, for free, by strangers, many of whom, without a pot to piss in themselves. Communities of care, offering services of all kinds, keep afloat terrified ordinary people, while the city runs bankrupt on overtime for the police, who can either collaborate with Mr. Trump, or wisely sit on their hands, hoping for better days ahead.

Furthermore, to our horror, we find hope: the situation is not wholly tragic. We have the duty to the families torn apart, to bury this hope, and even to condemn it. Human beings meeting each other’s needs is not a happy story and should not be viewed in even a dialectical way. In fact, this is exactly how we allowed Mr. Trump to wield absolute power in the first place.

The entire theory, which should be acknowledged as a catastrophic misreading that has killed millions across the globe, that through the crisis of Trump, people would bond together to form a socialized means of production. Rather, the opposite has happened. Predictably, the fulfillment of human needs has, if not gone underground, organized itself away from the reproduction of capital, and the profit motive has become more concentrated in the hands of financial speculation and polluting technologies.

Much of the sentiment has been racist in nature. For the most part the question of food and medicine to the third world, slashed by Project 2025, has been ignored, for these lives cannot be co-opted for Marxist ends, but rather for liberal American capitalism. Thus we are more likely to have a celebration of famine in Africa than a condemnation. We say that actually existing communism in China, or the superior spirit of the African, will do our work for us and these millions of dead Africans are a path to liberation.

The racial nature of capital expresses itself too in Minneapolis. We must keep the receipts of the argument that all seemed to accept, namely that woke had gone too far. The key to this argument was the paranoia that the state’s intervention into capitalist markets did not only choose elimination of the racial Other, but also, at times, kept her afloat.

Of course the state is always intervening and the battle must be into not if, but how. Much is said about the class nature of the MAGA movement, but one only has to follow the long standing voter suppression to know that America’s politics are not about class, in which the poor are more likely to favor the Democrats in self-defense. But class is not how people vote, more determining is race, gender, geography, education.

For capital moves in these areas, and the poor recognize the negotiation is not over the means of production at this point in time, but rather where the sledgehammer will land next. Thus, the underestimation of Mr. Trump was, of course, racial in nature as well. Underneath all of this was a belief that the Constitution of the United States would save us. We should have listened to the people of color telling us differently.

For the constitution is being expressed more honestly now, in its original form. Of course, revisions were welcome, and must be welcomed again. But at its core we are dealing with a document that is anti-Marxist in nature. One that cements private property rights, away from the state and into the hands of those that can use it for their own ends. Over time these private interests gain more power than the state and ultimately direct the state even if the state outlasts all individual actors.

Rights expanded to others for the purpose of war economy, and capital’s use of the already captured state for its own accumulation. And then taken away again once their labor was no longer needed. Thus, we should understand rights not as a product of superior civilization but rather as something granted to people to order production.

That is to say, none of us owed any rights. Any means of subsistence we have are thanks to the exploitation of labor and nature. Any means to purchase is based on the exploitation of ourselves, or our exploitation of others, both of whom valorize nature. But any rights we have are a different question entirely. For those who own slaves earn rights not in and for themselves but rather so they can valorize the slave. Therefore, the slaveholder must be protected not because capital wants him to suppress his fellow man, but rather because, in order to gain value from this suppression, there must be organization of the slave’s labor.

The question of ICE, the chaos, is likewise a question of organization and of predictability. On the one han,d liberals and conservatives alike get the word out that racial profiling is being done. In a sense getting the word out does reduce the need to actually commit atrocities for the racial Other voluntarily retreats from labor out of fear. Likewise, the humanitarian seeks to fill the needs of those in retreat through activity outside of the market.

And yet this only cements the original crisis of slave labor, migrant labor, prison labor, globalization, deindustrialization, the supposed discontents. For the monopoly on good jobs can be restored to snowflake whitey, but he will find himself without a consumer base. Furthermore, his gain makes him less desirable as a producer for capital, who will look more desirably upon the slave for work than it will the free man.

We should not be afraid to look at the real point of the Minneapolis surge. Much like the investor class, the White House can play with house money. Specifically, the post-financial crisis of 2008 has been one where the very rich can engage in wildly speculative bets, knowing that if they fail, they will be deemed too big to fail and will be bailed out. Therefore, why not be as aggressive as possible in pursuing high-risk, high-reward?

This explains the oddity of the AI bubble, the U.S. bubble, the bubble of Mr. Trump, who has proven again and again to understand the system better than any of us chasing him. How long have commentators claimed that A.I. will crash, the United States will crash, Trump will crash? Romantic thinking in the age of serious crisis.

A.I., of course, has provided very little, if any, benefit to ordinary people while sucking up an unimaginable amount of rapidly dwindling water supply. Even to the capitalist class the use for this technology seems very small. However the investment remains massive. Why? Because there is no competitive advantage in labor. People are more or less the same. While new technology, however useless, can provide a marginal advantage.

The fear of massive job loss from A.I. is utopian. The real crisis is that labor, compared with capital, has been so devalued that there is little incentive to eliminate it. If anything, we have a displacement of first-world labor to third-world labor, prison labor, migrant labor, unprotected and dangerous labor, as the means of production can travel digitally.

Similarly, the United States is propped up by this investment in A.I., the Trump economy, and its strength in the stock market, tied up as well. Meanwhile, China’s state directs investment into the real economy and benefits the rest of the world. And yet there is no crash, only steady decay of the dollar. The gains by China are far more gradual and they remain disciplined.

Back to playing with house money. What has made Mr. Trump successful throughout his life in business and in politics is his willingness to fail upwards. Push to the brink, take the biggest risk, and land the biggest gain, or end up in the same place. The rolling threats of tariffs and invasions to friends and foes alike have resulted in compliance at best, or the status quo at worst.

The goal of the Minneapolis surge was not only to provoke protestors into violence but also to provoke the state of Minnesota into pushing back with the National Guard, sparking a constitutional crisis and the Insurrection Act. In this way, Mr. Trump “failed”, at least so far. And yet in failure, no price was paid, much like his bankruptcies in business, the retreat from Mr. Trump leaves him in a secure position to strike again when the time is right.

Now, one could argue that if Mr. Trump thought the Democratic Party would go to civil war for its base, then he really has lost his mind. However the crisis was/is, and really we should say is, so severe it remains unclear how anyone should rationally respond.

What does the surge entail exactly? More or less a complete shutdown of a local economy. The unpredictable and unaccountable nature of the surge essentially makes for a situation where any person of color, seemingly, could disappear, where no one knows where they went, how to get them back, or if their health is deteriorating without their regular medication.

Now this is applied unevenly but with a sense of fear for everyone in a way. White people, likely spared unless they actively engage, then people of color, are they saved by papers, legal residents a level down and those deemed illegal a level down. Maybe forever prison, maybe the country of origin, but maybe somewhere you’ve never been, a war zone. The sheer amount of agents, and the ability of the administration to communicate that any rule may or may not be followed create a situation in which even without totalizing ability to disappear everyone, everyone wonders, and thus everything is shut down.

And yet at the same time we have to acknowledge that the opposition distributes this information, and even exaggerates it, for humanitarian reasons, but also to legitimize their own political existence, which has not figured out how to provide for people much better than the current administration, and while in power may provide more ways for economic stimulus through green technology and investments in underserved communities. However they too largely must answer to capital, and while out of power, concede to the real goal of the Trump administration, which is not actually to be a fascist state, but rather to stimulate the economy through exploitation. Thus the goal of both sides is in fact to get people of color in hiding, and whites taking care of them for free, while directing capital to its more productive places of greater technology and weaker labor.

The thing about distraction is that when the crisis is more severe, the distraction works even better.

Now one has to remember the absurd arguments being made before the election of Mr. Trump. While no one will dare discuss Greg Palast’s reporting, and this remains an utter mystery, in this present world where we ignore the elections, for all appearances, there was a real dismissal of the racial nature of capitalism. There was an obsession, across the political spectrum, with downplaying race.

One can recall the bad faith argument by Hillary Clinton, against Bernie Sanders, that taking on Wall Street will not solve racism. In 2020, Mr. Sanders did make a valiant effort to address this critique. However broadly speaking the elephant in the room has not been addressed and the denial of race remains a consensus.

Amidst the surge the racial nature is obvious. People of color, confined to their homes, which are searched without warrants, while white people can roam about, providing value to the economy. The state has always disciplined this free movement of colored bodies, restricting and criminalizing basic economic activity.

Then we get to the assumption of the paid protestor, the genuine belief that those protesting have no self-interest in doing so, and must be getting paid.

The surge was ultimately weakened by some white people, among others, naively acting in the interest of the community. First, a white woman, murdered. This was met with equal horror and hatred. On the one hand, white women are supposed to be killed and controlled by their husbands, not the state. On the other hand, she was stupid to be there. There was a sense this is wrong, the state should be protecting her role in reproducing strong white men, a mother of three, on the other hand she was a lesbian, she failed. Then the white man is killed. Here the outrage was more clear. Even worse, he was carrying a gun. There was nothing to defend. These ICE agents must be unprofessional police. Professional police know to kill Black men.

Now here we should defend a local Black commentator who said Black people know not to carry arms to a protest. All he was saying was Black people don’t have constitutional rights. Everyone knows this. Amendments were added later, and if we are losing the Fourth, Second, and First Amendments, we have already lost the higher-numbered ones. In fact this line of thought makes the white man who showed up to protest all the more heroic. There was a way out for him and the establishment is genuinely confused why he didn’t take it. Furthermore his act of selflessness upends the system, and forces the powers into retreat.

The reason we should say the surge was a provocation rather than simply the normal targeting of racial enclaves is that they aimed precisely for the communist parts of Minneapolis. Mayor Jacob Frey carried the rich and the ghetto parts of Minneapolis. Mr. Trump largely went for where he thought Marxism would respond, where Minneapolis burned after George Floyd.

However no burning was done and the 2020 crisis has been mischaracterized as well. There was an organized movement for Black lives long before George Floyd and their tactics were never about property damage. Rather the property damage was spontaneous and all “crime” is necessarily labeled as colored when in reality, precisely for this reason, people of color remain more disciplined. This is not to endorse or condemn the riots but merely to say genuine chaos rising from below is just different from organized activism and the Trump administration seems to have conflated the two as has the liberal class who seemingly embraced defund the police, only to retreat to a lament for the ordinary state of affairs of precise racial targeting in the face of Mr. Trump.

Dominating the headlines is a conspiratorial theory of capital from above, which once again serves as a scapegoat of the Jewish people, while the targeting of capital’s destruction from below, upon the racial Other, remains unexamined. Can one not take Gaza, the place where experiments with weapons and surveillance systems overwhelm people and the environment with destruction as the most obvious misreading across the political spectrum? Is it not the case that from right to left we mask a consensus of capital, an integrated global trading system, where all our illusions, liberal democracy, actually existing communism, third world nationalism, are willing collaborators in support of this testing ground? And anyone who brings up the obvious is accused of naive liberalism, of identity politics, or sympathy for a people who will always, somehow end up pulling the strings?

Do these reactionaries, always on the back foot, lagging behind capital’s speed, have an answer in their precious Epstein files, happily released by the cunning political genius we continue to underestimate for the explicit racial nature of the ICE surge in the Twin Cities metro area? We should have no doubt they will make up the devil pulling the strings, but by the time they find him it will be long after capital creates him to distract from the crisis and indeed to become collaborators in chaos, disorder and mind control.

Of course, Mr. Trump’s genius is perhaps striking enough where one could become conspiratorial about his role, although that may even be wishful thinking. What has characterized the Trump era has been excuse after excuse. Every time something awful happens it is dismissed as simply capitalism, neoliberalism, etc. as commentators cower behind intellectual posturing. Paradoxically, every time Mr. Trump misdirects the supposed free thinker to a grand theory of history that exonerates Mr. Trump, the President is given no credit for outsmarting his intellectual colleagues.

Many speculate that Mr. Trump reads Hitler, and many claim that they, the opposition, read Marx. It appears the opposite may be the case, that Mr. Trump understands capital, and we only think we are ahead in the race because Mr. Trump has nearly lapped us. The way out, a socialized means of production, was supposedly going to simply appear from the crisis that Mr. Trump created. Laughing to the bank, Mr. Trump has observed a socialized means of care and community, naively fetishized by outside observers as a step towards socialism rather than a means of survival for a community under attack.

While sentiment celebrates defeat and heartbreak, Mr. Trump wins victory every day as he cunningly consolidates power in global capital relations. Back to caring for our loved ones, we go. There is dignity in that, but no victory. All those interested in a socialized means of production should be learning from Mr. Trump. A civil war was avoided in Minneapolis, and of course, this was his goal. We can stand for moral victories when none exist. The only victory is socialism. For every other mode of production will grind down people and planet to a pulp.

Those of us with our eyes on the prize tip our cap to the undefeated Donald John Trump, who perhaps even understates himself. We find ourselves thanking him for not kidnapping our family members. And then we wonder, after these ridiculous words come out of our mouths, how did we get so bad at negotiating? The answer may lie in misunderstanding our own rights, not won through struggle, but given to us only because of our usefulness to the accumulation of capital.

For we are at the mercy of the morality of Mr. Trump now. Complex systems have bowed before him, kissing the ring for crumbs. Many a day some of us have banged the table, demanding our elimination, and yet we are so small our king does not notice or care. Thus we return to the drawing board, with humble and heavy hearts, acknowledging the costs of believing in the system we claimed to condemn.

Nick Pemberton writes and works from Saint Paul, Minnesota. He loves to receive feedback at pemberton.nick@gmail.com 

Carney and Thucydides at Davos


 February 10, 2026

Thucydides Mosaic from Jerash, Jordan, Roman, 3rd century AD at the Pergamon Museum in Berlin – Public Domain

You gotta love a speech that opens with Thucydides.

For those of us steeped in the ideas of George Kennan, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call for “value-based realism” and a “third way” of middle powers at the Davos Summit, sounded too good to be true. On its face, it was a great speech, a call to arms with Canada in the lead. Carney is being hailed as “Churchillian” and the “new leader of the Free World,” his speech, “historic”—one for the books. But how realistic is his realist prescription? Let’s hope that he understands the implications of his1 Thucydides quote.

At last, I thought, a national leader who speaks my language. Carney blew the lid off of the “rules-based international order” that gave us 80 years of undeclared wars of choice, dozens of regime change efforts, and the de facto imperialism, disparities, and wage slavery of economic globalization. He spoke of not going back, of a “rupture” with a past that he called out as the emperor’s new clothes enabled by the “go along to get along” compliance of second-tier nations. He shamed European nations for their fealty and offered a plausible-sounding middle way of “greater strategic autonomy” for middle nations based on a diversified scheme of “principled pragmatism” and a “variable geometry” of alliances. A brave man, I thought, an honest and rational man—a man with a plan.

Shattering the possibility of a return to the recent past of middle-powers subservience, he starkly heralded the arrival of the new world order we already knew was here and stood up to the U.S. administration without mentioning names. Since Davos, he has reaffirmed his position. And yet Carney seems unaware of a powerful internal contradiction in his vision that could scuttle it: Realism is based in part on the idea of bilateral agreements of independent sovereign nations acting unfettered in their own interests. But in order to be effective, the middle powers would presumably have to band together into an aggregated great power through multilateral agreements tailored to the interests of its constituent nations. He also spoke of linking the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) with the European Union (EU), which sounds like the very apotheosis of multilateralism.

Under the neoliberal world order, multilateralism had been a part of the problem, yet in order for Carney’s plan to work, middle nations would have to comprise one of the poles of the emerging multipolar world by becoming a united front conglomerate speaking with a single voice. This is because there is safety and power in numbers, and by definition, middle powers fill the gap between great powers and the lesser powers. They tend to be technologically advanced with prominent middle classes, but are smaller than the monster nations. Too small to “go it alone,” they would have to enter into a multilateral pacts of “variable geometry,” depending the agreement and its signatories. Such a league would also, by the Prime Minister’s account, act as a brake on hegemonic rivalries. Medium-sized nations would also have to do business with the monster nations as sovereign states (as witnessed by Canada’s new “strategic partnership” with China), even though Carney admits that great powers typically have the advantage.

Someone who has already identified this problem of middle states acting as unencumbered sovereigns, is the University of Chicago professor and standard-bearer of neorealism, John Mearsheimer. Mearsheimer’s school of offensive realism, holds that the direction and nature of the global order is determined by the competition of great powers, and not by leagues of middle-tier nations. The question is whether or not Mearsheimer is right in this overarching observation.

I prefer Kennan’s brand of realism based on intuition, a broad, deep, and nuanced understanding of history, culture, and human nature, to the determinism of Mearsheimer (to be fair, Mearsheimer’s vision is also based on a profound historical understanding). If Mearsheimer was merely saying that the world tends to be governed by the rivalries of great powers, I would tend to agree with him. If he was saying that great powers act most effectively when they act in the moderate and rational furtherance of their perceived interests, or that they usually do (or do not at their own peril), then I would also agree with him. If by contrast, he is asserting a law-like “hidden hand” phenomenon at work, like the physical constants of physics, then I say that his view is too mechanistic, too historicist for the real (read: chaotic) world. As Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., a realist in the law, observes in a different context that “General propositions do not decide concrete cases.” Piecemeal problem-solving is preferable to grandiose meta theories.

That said, and in spite of his broader views, I have found that Mearsheimer is usually spot on in his proximate analyses of events large and small (his 2014 Foreign Affairs article, Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault,” predicting a war with Russia over Ukraine in response to the eastward expansion of NATO, has proved prescient, as have his analyses of events in Ukraine since the Russian invasion). But the central tenet of objective realism is too deterministic and does violence to the complexities of a disorderly world based on power struggles that are guided, not only by reason and interest, but also on ideology/eschatology, “morality,” human caprice, and irrationality. Error is frequently a driver of events, and history is as much of sequence of screwups as successes. The human world is not governed by mechanistic principles or “laws” of history, but by currents and tendencies, which may be strong or weak. Human interaction is both a randomizing factor as well as an ordering principle, and history takes on a will of its own that is beyond human intentions.

But let us assume for a moment that Mearsheimer’s historical Newtonianism holds true in this instance—that middle nations cannot run the table as individual players or as brokers of consolidated power. This would mean that they would have to act collectively as a league of sort of powerful states. As retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor recently observed, NATO—that great pact of middling vassal states—was (and is) too diverse in its interests and agendas to function effectively: “NATO remained exactly what it was: a chorus of competing voices that could not agree on much of anything.” The impotence of the NATO’s “limited liability partnership” in respect to the Russo-Ukrainian War, is just a recent example of Macgregor’s point (on a side note, Carney’s ”coalition of the willing”—which is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian—sounds a lot like the phenomenon he is criticizing, but let that go). Macgregor’s criticisms of an overly-diverse military alliance may find parallel in economic alliances of self-interested middle powers a la Carey.

The question then is whether or not Mearsheimer’s great powers principle and Macgregor’s observation on the inverse relationship of nation interest diversity and efficacy, apply to the present case and whether great powers geopolitics will preclude Carney’s prescription. In the words of the Zen master in the parable from Charlie Wilson’s War, “We’ll see.”

The Thucydides Trap

Carney’s Thucydides quote that “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must,” must be taken in the context of another famous quote by the Greek historian on the cause of the Peloponnesian War: “The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta, made war inevitable.”

This illustrates another dynamic at play in the world—another inverse relationship—that is sometimes called the “Thucydides Trap” (or as I used to call it: the Problem of the Declining Hegemon). It refers to the inherent danger of periods in which a waning hegemon is confronted with a rising or reinvigorated hegemon, and tends to support Mearsheimer’s position. In Greece in 431 BC, the rising power was Athens and the declining power was Sparta. In the first half of the 20th century, the declining hegemon was the British Empire and the rising powers were Germany and Japan (and the US as an industrial trading partner of Britain). This was also the period of the World Wars.

Today the declining hegemon is the United States. As it slides into political decadence and senescence, we can only imagine where the Lear-like policies at home and abroad will lead. The primary rising power is China, in cooperation with Russia, Iran, and perhaps India. These powers would have competed with the West for the favor and resources of the Global South as the Earth’s biosphere continues to degrade. But now Carney has made a unified Western alliance problematic by encouraging its intermediate constituent states to peal off from the occidental pole.

With the help of erratic U.S. policies, the West could split, with modern, technologically-advanced nations like Canada and Australia poised to go their own way or as leaders of “variable geometry” alliances of similarly-situated nations. But will it work? After all, the most subservient client states of the United States—those of Western Europe—appear to have stood up to the U.S. over Greenland. But was this a one-off? Was the rhetoric over Greenland a bridge too far, even for Western Europe? With an American president who seems content to abandon Europe, could Canada realistically position itself as the senior partner of the NATO alliance? We’ll see.

We know of Canada’s new trade treaty with China, but as a general program, we need details of what the third way is and how it is supposed to work. Would the middle nations compete or cooperate or would they adhere to one of the oldest realist tenets of all: nations compete when they must and cooperate when they can. Would they band around one of the poles of the great powers, and if so, how would what would be a new approach? Would Carney’s third way provide the basis for a BRICS-like league for middle powers? Would it be a balancing factor or a potential spoiler in the competition of great powers? We need more answers on how the new way will work if we are to assess if it will work.

If I had to guess, I would say that Carney’s middle way will not fully materialize in the way he would like, and that the tenet of Thucydides he quoted, if extrapolated, will hold true, that in terms of power, middle nation are just better versions of lesser powers, and diverging interests will undermine any effort for them to assert themselves en masse as a collective great power. Another possibility is that the differing interests of middle powers will form an elaborate, overlapping, kaleidoscopic array of ever-shifting alliances and “buyers’ clubs” depending on the specifics of interests and threats in question. Whether such a busy system of alliances will work is anybody’s guess.

A final possibility is that Carney and Canada will lead the charge and nobody will follow. When Theodore Roosevelt gave the initial order to attack the Spanish forces on Kettle Hill, only five men followed because they could not hear him over the din of battle. The difference is that everybody heard Carney at Davos. To be fair, Roosevelt and his men took Kettle and San Juan Hills (at the cost of one fifth of the regiment). Is Carney a new Churchill or TR? We’ll see.

The world order is shifting with abrupt ruptures from the past and a United States that appears to have taken the Madman Theory of foreign policy taken to a chaotic extreme. With China on the ascendance, and the U.S. in what appears to be in a state of steep and perhaps permanent decline, which will win the the Global South? Let’s hope that the middle nations of the West and Pacific rim will embrace Carney’s proposal, and that combinations of them can allow their members to punch above their weight as a force for stability and sanity in the world.

Of course the overarching question is whether or not an increasingly volatile U.S. can navigate the new geopolitical seas in peace. Russia has shown great restraint vis-a-vis Western meddling in the proxy war on its front doorstep. Likewise, the Western Pacific, where Mearsheimer and others believe a great powers struggle with China might be in the offing in the future, is currently pacific. By contrast, as Macgregor asks, “Who has stopped, boarded, and seized a [foreign-flagged] commercial vessel? We have.”

Conclusion

The emerging world order, like a great Shakespearean tragedy, denotes a crisis-within-a-crisis: a shift of power away from the United States as other powers rise and allies are driven away. This shift exists within the greater crises of the environment. If the world is to effectively address these existential crises, it will require a critical mass of great, medium, and lesser powers cooperation. As I have written elsewhere, the world can no longer afford the infantile rivalries of the Great Game. The problem with the Great Game is the game itself.[1]

It is a tall order for a great speech, even one beginning with Thucydides, to launch a new geopolitical era. And if successful in doing so, there is no guarantee that the new order will play out anything like the way the author intended. Given the greater crises that loom above humankind and which now threaten us all, what would be the impact of Carney’s middle prong of the new world order? If it materializes, it could provide a source of moderation and balance in the world. Or it could be just another axis in a balkanizing world order at a time when greater cooperation is needed. We can hope for the best, but should not expect it. We shall see.

NOTES

1. See Michael F. Duggan, “Realism and Regionalism: The United States in a Multipolar World,” Chicago Journal of Foreign Policy, April 24, 2024. 

Michael F. Duggan blogs at  realismandpolicy.com.