Having 75 per cent of Canadians fully immunized means 86 per cent of those aged 12 and over who are eligible for a shot will need to get their jabs, Tombe said
Author of the article: Jason Herring
Publishing date: Jul 04, 2021 •
POSTMEDIA
People wait in line to receive their COVID-19 vaccine at the Immunization Clinic in the Telus Convention Centre on Wednesday, May 19, 2021. PHOTO BY AZIN GHAFFARI/POSTMEDIA
The federal government wants to see 75 per cent of Canada’s population immunized against COVID-19 with two doses before lifting international travel restrictions and opening the border.
It’s a threshold that will be tough to meet, particularly in Alberta, where nearly a quarter of people eligible for a shot still haven’t received a dose, said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.
Having 75 per cent of Canadians fully immunized means 86 per cent of those aged 12 and over who are eligible for a shot will need to get their jabs, Tombe said.
“Eighty-six per cent of eligible individuals is perhaps at the higher end of what polls suggest is possible,” Tombe said.
“It’s going to take a little bit more work to change some views that are out there … It’s certainly possible, but it’s going to be a heavy lift for governments.”
The federal government has discussed a 75 per cent threshold in recent months, but formalized it in mid-June in the Canada Gazette.
In the Gazette, the Public Health Agency of Canada says it recognizes mandatory quarantine and testing protocols “place significant burdens” on Canadians and the country’s economy, but that these measures remain the most effective way to prevent new cases and variants of concern from entering the country.
For 75 per cent of Alberta’s population to be fully immunized, the province would need to administer more than 560,000 additional first doses and 1.63 million more second doses — though Tombe pointed out not every province will need to reach the 75 per cent target for the country to hit that marker.
June polling data from the Angus Reid Institute indicates Alberta and Saskatchewan lead Canada in hesitancy or outright opposition to COVID-19 vaccines, with 18 per cent of people in each province unwilling or unsure about being vaccinated.
It’s an improvement from January, when Angus Reid polling found 45 per cent of Albertans were hesitant about getting a shot, but greater willingness to get immunized is needed for Alberta to help Canada achieve its lofty target, Tombe said.
“There are a number of individuals, especially younger individuals in their 20s and 30s, that are choosing not to get a shot. It’s going to require their minds be changed,” Tombe said.
Through Thursday, the most recent day data is available, 2.75 million Albertans have at least one shot of vaccine, and 1.67 million are fully immunized.
That works out to 62 per cent of the population with at least one shot, and 38 per cent with both necessary jabs.
Vaccine uptake in Alberta drops among younger age groups, with only 59 per cent of those in their 20s having received at least one shot.
Tombe said it’s a pattern seen across Canada that younger residents are rolling up their sleeves to get immunized at lower rates than their older cohorts. But Alberta’s relatively young population contributes to the fact a nation-leading 23.4 per cent of its eligible population still hasn’t had their first shot.
The economist said Canada will have enough COVID-19 vaccine doses to reach its goal by Aug. 7, but it’s difficult to project what demand will be for those shots.
In mid-June, Canada announced the border to the U.S. would remain closed until at least July 21 for non-essential travel. The closure has been in place since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
The federal government wants to see 75 per cent of Canada’s population immunized against COVID-19 with two doses before lifting international travel restrictions and opening the border.
It’s a threshold that will be tough to meet, particularly in Alberta, where nearly a quarter of people eligible for a shot still haven’t received a dose, said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.
Having 75 per cent of Canadians fully immunized means 86 per cent of those aged 12 and over who are eligible for a shot will need to get their jabs, Tombe said.
“Eighty-six per cent of eligible individuals is perhaps at the higher end of what polls suggest is possible,” Tombe said.
“It’s going to take a little bit more work to change some views that are out there … It’s certainly possible, but it’s going to be a heavy lift for governments.”
The federal government has discussed a 75 per cent threshold in recent months, but formalized it in mid-June in the Canada Gazette.
In the Gazette, the Public Health Agency of Canada says it recognizes mandatory quarantine and testing protocols “place significant burdens” on Canadians and the country’s economy, but that these measures remain the most effective way to prevent new cases and variants of concern from entering the country.
For 75 per cent of Alberta’s population to be fully immunized, the province would need to administer more than 560,000 additional first doses and 1.63 million more second doses — though Tombe pointed out not every province will need to reach the 75 per cent target for the country to hit that marker.
June polling data from the Angus Reid Institute indicates Alberta and Saskatchewan lead Canada in hesitancy or outright opposition to COVID-19 vaccines, with 18 per cent of people in each province unwilling or unsure about being vaccinated.
It’s an improvement from January, when Angus Reid polling found 45 per cent of Albertans were hesitant about getting a shot, but greater willingness to get immunized is needed for Alberta to help Canada achieve its lofty target, Tombe said.
“There are a number of individuals, especially younger individuals in their 20s and 30s, that are choosing not to get a shot. It’s going to require their minds be changed,” Tombe said.
Through Thursday, the most recent day data is available, 2.75 million Albertans have at least one shot of vaccine, and 1.67 million are fully immunized.
That works out to 62 per cent of the population with at least one shot, and 38 per cent with both necessary jabs.
Vaccine uptake in Alberta drops among younger age groups, with only 59 per cent of those in their 20s having received at least one shot.
Tombe said it’s a pattern seen across Canada that younger residents are rolling up their sleeves to get immunized at lower rates than their older cohorts. But Alberta’s relatively young population contributes to the fact a nation-leading 23.4 per cent of its eligible population still hasn’t had their first shot.
The economist said Canada will have enough COVID-19 vaccine doses to reach its goal by Aug. 7, but it’s difficult to project what demand will be for those shots.
In mid-June, Canada announced the border to the U.S. would remain closed until at least July 21 for non-essential travel. The closure has been in place since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
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