ALBERTA VOTES
Support for LIBERAL Amarjeet Sohi more than double other contenders in Edmonton mayor's race: Leger pollUCP Mike Nickel continued to poll in second place with 16 per cent support and former city councillor CONSERVATIVE Kim Krushell trailed not far behind with 12 per cent
Author of the article: Dustin Cook
Publishing date:Oct 14, 2021 •
Edmonton mayoral candidate Amarjeet Sohi. In a recent poll by Leger, Sohi has 34 per cent voter support, more than double the next closest contender in Mike Nickel with 16 per cent.
PHOTO BY SHAUGHN BUTTS /Postmedia
Amarjeet Sohi has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for Edmonton’s open mayor’s chair with more than double the support of the closest challenger, according to a new Leger poll.
In the poll conducted for Postmedia over the Thanksgiving long weekend, 34 per cent of respondents said they are most likely to vote for the former councillor and federal cabinet minister in Edmonton’s municipal election on Monday. This is an increase from 29 per cent support in Leger’s July survey.
Mike Nickel, current Ward 11 city councillor, continued to poll in second place with 16 per cent support and former city councillor Kim Krushell trailed not far behind with 12 per cent. Krushell had the largest increase in support since the July poll where she tallied only five per cent.
Leger executive vice-president Ian Large said the wide lead for Sohi isn’t surprising because of his recognition at the political level, but noted there are still many variables at play before the ballots are counted Monday night. Sohi has the most support from those aged 18-34, at 40 per cent, and Large said typically voter turnout is lower amongst the younger population. As well, 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided on who they would cast a ballot for.
“Age is a really important factor and this is the one that’s utterly unpredictable in all of these polls because it’s about voter turnout. Historically, younger people vote in much lower numbers than older people. Non-ratepayers also don’t tend to vote in the same numbers because they don’t have as much skin in the game,” he said in an interview with Postmedia Wednesday afternoon. “But the fact that Sohi is leading in all the age groups is a very strong indication of the support for him.”
One reason for Sohi’s success could be his differing political views from Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party government, Large said. In Edmonton, 60 per cent said they are more likely to vote for a mayor who opposes the policies of the provincial government. Only 14 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the government’s actions.
With many high-profile conflicts between municipalities and the province as well as widespread public anger in the Alberta government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Large said many voters are keen to see the next mayor and council continue to pushback against the province.
“I’m not surprised to see that in Edmonton more of the voters don’t support the policies of the provincial government and so they’re going to support a mayoral candidate that’s going to continue that opposition,” he said.
Other mayoral candidates also saw an increase in support from the July survey, but not as much as the three leaders. Former one-term city councillor Michael Oshry had six per cent of support and Cheryll Watson followed just behind at five per cent. The six other candidates had one per cent support or less. Three per cent of respondents said they wouldn’t be voting.
Top priorities for voters
Issues focused on fiscal restraint and spending are top of mind for Edmonton voters, according to the poll, which highlighted a post-COVID economic recovery as the top priority amongst residents with 29 per cent support. Lowering taxes and reducing the cost and size of the city’s workforce also ranked high among fiscal priorities.
But in Edmonton, reducing poverty was the third-most selected priority with 21 per cent in favour, significantly higher than the 14 per cent in Calgary. Improving and expanding transit infrastructure was also significantly higher in Edmonton than Calgary with 19 per cent support as a top priority compared to 14 per cent.
Although social issues weigh heavily in Edmonton, Large said it’s the fiscal policies that usually garner more weight from residents in making their voting decisions. Only six per cent of respondents said building a stronger relationship with racialized communities is one of their three most important priorities for the next council to address.
“Those social issues are just being eclipsed by the much more obvious ‘where is my next paycheque going to come from’ or ‘how is the next council going to affect my standard of living,’ ” he said. “It’s important to voters because that’s money out of their pocket.”
As a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported. If the data were collected through a random sample, the margin of error would be plus or minus 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20. A total of 503 Edmontonians were polled between Oct. 8-11.
Wednesday marked the final of 10 days for advance voting in the Edmonton election. Advance voter turnout already doubled the 2017 total as of Tuesday’s vote count with more than 55,000 residents already casting a ballot. Last election, overall voter turnout was 31.5 per cent. Election day is Oct. 18.
duscook@postmedia.com
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New poll suggests mayoral race shaping up for nail-biting finish
The Leger poll found the front-runners are statistically tied, with 27 per cent favouring Gondek and 24 per cent supporting Farkas
Author of the article: Meghan Potkins • Calgary Herald
Publishing date: Oct 14, 2021
Councillors Jyoti Gondek and Jeromy Farkas are in a statistical dead heat in Calgary’s mayoral race with just four days remaining until election day, according to a new poll conducted for Postmedia.
The Leger poll found the front-runners are statistically tied, with 27 per cent favouring Gondek and 24 per cent supporting Farkas, with 17 per cent of respondents still undecided on who they would like to replace outgoing Mayor Naheed Nenshi.
The two front-runners have solidified their lead at the head of a pack of 27 mayoral candidates, though Gondek has the momentum having more than doubled her support since Leger’s last municipal poll in July.
“That’s a big jump. She’s obviously taking up a significant number of undecideds, those fence-sitters, since July,” said Ian Large of Leger, whose firm conducted the online survey between Oct. 8 and 11.
“Whereas (Farkas), who is statistically tied with Gondek at 24 per cent, has only increased his support by four per cent.”
In third place is Ward 6 Coun. Jeff Davison with 11 per cent — up from five per cent in July — followed by Brad Field with six per cent and Jan Damery with four per cent.
Large said while Gondek has a slight lead, it’s within the margin of error and she is neck and neck with Farkas heading into the final stretch of the campaign. “It’s too close to call,” he said
The Leger poll found the front-runners are statistically tied, with 27 per cent favouring Gondek and 24 per cent supporting Farkas
Author of the article: Meghan Potkins • Calgary Herald
Publishing date: Oct 14, 2021
Campaign signs showing three of the frontrunners in the race for Calgary’s next mayor are seen along 66th Avenue S.W. in Lakeview on Tuesday, October 12, 2021.
Councillors Jyoti Gondek and Jeromy Farkas are in a statistical dead heat in Calgary’s mayoral race with just four days remaining until election day, according to a new poll conducted for Postmedia.
The Leger poll found the front-runners are statistically tied, with 27 per cent favouring Gondek and 24 per cent supporting Farkas, with 17 per cent of respondents still undecided on who they would like to replace outgoing Mayor Naheed Nenshi.
The two front-runners have solidified their lead at the head of a pack of 27 mayoral candidates, though Gondek has the momentum having more than doubled her support since Leger’s last municipal poll in July.
“That’s a big jump. She’s obviously taking up a significant number of undecideds, those fence-sitters, since July,” said Ian Large of Leger, whose firm conducted the online survey between Oct. 8 and 11.
“Whereas (Farkas), who is statistically tied with Gondek at 24 per cent, has only increased his support by four per cent.”
In third place is Ward 6 Coun. Jeff Davison with 11 per cent — up from five per cent in July — followed by Brad Field with six per cent and Jan Damery with four per cent.
Large said while Gondek has a slight lead, it’s within the margin of error and she is neck and neck with Farkas heading into the final stretch of the campaign. “It’s too close to call,” he said
.
Mayor candidate Jyoti Gondek speaks as Calgary Chamber held a mayoral debate with the top five candidates Jan Damery, Jeff Davison, Jeromy Farkas, Brad Field and Jyoti Gondek at the Hyatt hotel in Calgary on Wednesday, October 6, 2021.
PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK/POSTMEDIA
Farkas’ support remains concentrated among older, male voters, according to the poll, with 36 per cent of those age 55 or older in his favour and just 16 per cent of 35- to 54-year-olds.
“The older voters coalesced early around the conservative candidate,” said Large. “They went early and they went in a group and they haven’t moved. But that demographic is not growing, either.”
However, Farkas’ core voters tend to be the ones that come out to vote, added Large.
Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt says Farkas might have a “highly committed floor of voters” but he hasn’t benefited from the fact the campaign has solidified into a two-horse race.
“He needed it to be three, four or five front-runners. He needed a much stronger Jeff Davison, for example, and that’s not happening,” said Bratt.
“And I think there’s been other things that have hurt Farkas since the spring and summer.”
Bratt pointed to Farkas being the sole vote against the city’s vaccine passport bylaw last month, and said Farkas’ ties to Alberta’s unpopular premier have also hurt him.
“The anti-vaccine (passport) vote, I think is haunting him. Even (councillors) Chu and Magliocca voted for the vaccine (passport) mandate and Farkas went out on a limb and opposed it,” said Bratt.
Leger’s survey — which included responses from municipal voters in both Calgary and Edmonton — found that 54 per cent said they would vote for a mayor who opposes the policies of Premier Jason Kenney and the UCP.
“Because the party and party platform from the provincial government is so unpopular, I was interested to see if that would in fact influence the voter and it seems that it does,” said Large. “It seems that the mayoral candidates who say, ‘we’re going to go our own way and damn the provincial government, we’re going to do what we think is the right thing to do’ — that seems to be carrying some weight.”
Perhaps not unrelated is data that suggests Gondek continues to be the preferred candidate among former supporters of Calgary’s outspoken mayor: with 44 per cent of former Nenshi voters suggesting they would cast a ballot for the Ward 3 councillor.
But Bratt said Gondek’s challenge will be mobilizing her supporters on election day.
“Nenshi got the young people out but there was enthusiasm for Nenshi that I’m not seeing with Gondek,” said Bratt. “I think they see her as similar, but she doesn’t have the dynamism, the charisma, the newness that Nenshi had in 2010.
“Do her voters come out? We know Farkas’ voters will.”
The poll collected the responses of 502 Calgarians of voting age who are part of Leger’s representative online opinion panel. Technically, the margin of error cannot be determined for an online panel. If the data had been collected through a random sample, the estimated margin of error would be plus or minus 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
mpotkins@postmedia.com
Twitter: @mpotkins
Farkas’ support remains concentrated among older, male voters, according to the poll, with 36 per cent of those age 55 or older in his favour and just 16 per cent of 35- to 54-year-olds.
“The older voters coalesced early around the conservative candidate,” said Large. “They went early and they went in a group and they haven’t moved. But that demographic is not growing, either.”
However, Farkas’ core voters tend to be the ones that come out to vote, added Large.
Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt says Farkas might have a “highly committed floor of voters” but he hasn’t benefited from the fact the campaign has solidified into a two-horse race.
“He needed it to be three, four or five front-runners. He needed a much stronger Jeff Davison, for example, and that’s not happening,” said Bratt.
“And I think there’s been other things that have hurt Farkas since the spring and summer.”
Bratt pointed to Farkas being the sole vote against the city’s vaccine passport bylaw last month, and said Farkas’ ties to Alberta’s unpopular premier have also hurt him.
“The anti-vaccine (passport) vote, I think is haunting him. Even (councillors) Chu and Magliocca voted for the vaccine (passport) mandate and Farkas went out on a limb and opposed it,” said Bratt.
Leger’s survey — which included responses from municipal voters in both Calgary and Edmonton — found that 54 per cent said they would vote for a mayor who opposes the policies of Premier Jason Kenney and the UCP.
“Because the party and party platform from the provincial government is so unpopular, I was interested to see if that would in fact influence the voter and it seems that it does,” said Large. “It seems that the mayoral candidates who say, ‘we’re going to go our own way and damn the provincial government, we’re going to do what we think is the right thing to do’ — that seems to be carrying some weight.”
Perhaps not unrelated is data that suggests Gondek continues to be the preferred candidate among former supporters of Calgary’s outspoken mayor: with 44 per cent of former Nenshi voters suggesting they would cast a ballot for the Ward 3 councillor.
But Bratt said Gondek’s challenge will be mobilizing her supporters on election day.
“Nenshi got the young people out but there was enthusiasm for Nenshi that I’m not seeing with Gondek,” said Bratt. “I think they see her as similar, but she doesn’t have the dynamism, the charisma, the newness that Nenshi had in 2010.
“Do her voters come out? We know Farkas’ voters will.”
The poll collected the responses of 502 Calgarians of voting age who are part of Leger’s representative online opinion panel. Technically, the margin of error cannot be determined for an online panel. If the data had been collected through a random sample, the estimated margin of error would be plus or minus 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
mpotkins@postmedia.com
Twitter: @mpotkins
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