OPINION
Why is Erdogan in a hurry to meet Assad?

TO WAGE A UNIFIED WAR ON KURDISTAN

July 12, 2024 

People attend a protest to condemn Assad regime forces’ suspected chemical gas attack in the opposition-held Syrian province of Idlib town, in Istanbul, Turkey on 4 April, 2017 [Abdullah Coşkun/Anadolu Agency]

by Ismail Yasha
ismail_yasa


The President of the Turkish Republic, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, mentioned a few days ago that he may extend an invitation to Bashar Al-Assad to visit Turkiye at any moment, expressing his desire to restore his country’s relations with the Syrian regime. He said in his statements to reporters, “We have now arrived at a point where, if Bashar Assad takes a step towards improving relations with Turkiye, we will also show that approach towards him”, after previously describing Bashar Al-Assad as “Mister“, noting that he had met with him in the past and could meet him again.

Erdogan’s statements suggest that he is in a hurry to meet Bashar Al-Assad for some reason. There are different opinions in interpreting these statements and the reasons behind them. There are those who credit them to the elections that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) seeks to hold in the areas it controls in Syria, and those who link it to the changing international and regional balances in light of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and talk of the possibility of a third world war. The issue of the Syrian refugees in Turkiye is also on the table in the ongoing discussions regarding the feasibility of Erdogan’s upcoming meeting with Bashar Al-Assad.

Turkiye put pressure on the US to prevent the PKK from holding local elections in the areas it controls in north-eastern Syria, which led to the postponement of the elections. The US State Department said that conditions for “free, fair, transparent and inclusive” elections are not in place, but Ankara is asking Washington to completely cancel the plan for local elections in those areas, not postpone them.

READ: Syrians in Turkiye fear for future after Erdogan plans talks with Assad

Analysts believe that the Turkish President’s statements are a message to the US before the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in Washington, and his meeting with American officials on the sidelines of the summit, stating that Turkiye is open to all options in order to eliminate the threat of the PKK, including normalisation with the Syrian regime under Russian mediation, if the US does not restrain the separatist terrorist organisation’s ambitions and continues to support it.

Erdogan stated, during an iftar event with soldiers in the capital, Ankara, last March, that by the summer, Turkiye’s borders with Iraq would be fully secured, adding that Turkiye would inevitably complete the remainder of its work in Syria. These days, the Turkish army is carrying out a large military operation in northern Iraq, to ​​complete its encircling of the PKK and fill the gaps manipulated by the terrorist organisation. Erdogan’s statements may be in preparation for a similar military operation in northern Syria.

The US supports the PKK with money and weapons, but Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime’s thugs also support and protect the terrorist organisation in Syria. In many of the sites bombed by the Turkish army in northern Syria, Syrian regime soldiers are killed and wounded along with PKK members, indicating coordination and cooperation between the two parties. Therefore, Ankara may not obtain any positive result from normalisation with Damascus in the fight against the PKK, and the terrorist organisation will remain as a pressure card used by the Syrian regime and its allies to blackmail  Turkiye.

Hundreds of thousands demonstrate in Syria to overthrow the Assad regime – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]There are those who say that Bashar Al-Assad is fed up with Iran’s interference in the affairs of Syria, seeks to distance himself from it, and does not wish to participate in the war that might break out between Israel and Iranian agents in the region, in light of the Israeli attacks targeting Iranian officers, and reports of the arrest of his media advisor, Luna Al-Shabal, by Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers, who questioned her and assassinated her on charges of spying for Israel.

Erdogan may see, based on the intelligence information, that there is an opportunity to obtain concessions from the Syrian regime in the current circumstances, which can be exploited to facilitate military operations against PKK in northern Syria, and pave the way for the return of refugees to safe areas under the protection of the Turkish army.

The attempt to distance the Syrian regime from Iran has been previously tried by Arab countries, but it failed every time, given the extent of Iranian involvement in Syrian affairs and the regime’s need for Iranian support. Ankara is certainly aware of the failure of these attempts and the causes. It seems that all Turkiye wants the Syrian regime is to grant it a green light to carry out a new military operation in Syrian territory.

OPINION: Dynamics of Turkiye-Syria normalisation

Given the legitimacy that Bashar Al-Assad currently enjoys in representing Syria at the UN and international institutions, it is very unlikely that Turkiye’s goal is to recycle Bashar Al-Assad and rehabilitate his regime.

Turkiye confirmed, about a month ago, through its Defence Minister that it is committed to implementing Security Council Resolution No. 2254, drafting a comprehensive constitution, holding free and fair elections and establishing security and stability throughout Syria. If all of this is accomplished, it means the departure of the current regime and the establishment of a new democratic regime. There is no indication that Turkiye is backing down from these conditions, and Erdogan’s statements about his desire to meet Al-Assad came after the regime backed down from requiring the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory.

Justice and Development Party spokesman, Omer Celik, says, “Ankara seeks, through the normalisation process with Damascus, to make Syria safe for millions of Syrians who were forced to leave their homes”, stressing that his country will never let down anyone who trusted it and worked with it.

These statements suggest that the Turkish government is carrying out some manoeuvre to eliminate the threat of separatist terrorism in Syria, secure its borders and establish safe areas for the return of refugees to their country. However, it must communicate with the leaders of the Syrian revolution to reassure them and coordinate and cooperate with them, as well as not be lenient with racists who target refugees in Turkiye so as not to show to the world that it is letting down the millions who trusted and worked with them.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 10 July 2024

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