Far-right AfD on track for its first win in eastern German state vote
A person waves a Saxony flag during Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) campaign event for the Saxony state elections in Dresden, Germany, Aug 29, 2024.
PHOTO: Reuters file
August 31, 2024
BERLIN — The far-right Alternative for Germany is predicted to come first in at least one of two elections in eastern states on Sunday (Sept 1), piling pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's federal coalition over the economy, immigration and support for Ukraine.
The 11-year-old AfD, which has greater support in the formerly communist-run east, will be unlikely to be able to form a state government even if it does win, as it is polling short of a majority and other parties refuse to collaborate with it.
But it will be the first time a far-right party has the most seats in a German state parliament since World War Two and its strength will complicate coalition building and could allow it to block constitutional changes and appointments of some judges.
The AfD is polling 30 per cent in Thuringia, nearly 10 points ahead of the conservatives in second place, while tying with them in Saxony on around 30 to 32 per cent. The newly-created far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is set to come third in both states.
Strong gains for the two anti-establishment parties herald growing instability in Europe's biggest economy, reflecting a fragmentation of the political landscape that could also complicate efforts to form coherent national governments.
The AfD's signature topic of migration shot up the agenda after a knife attack a week ago in the western city of Solingen in which a 26-year-old suspected Islamic State member from Syria is accused of killing three people.
"We want to end the failure of the state, the loss of control," AfD co-leader Alice Weidel told a campaign event on Wednesday in Dresden. "That can only be done through a sustainable change in migration and asylum policy."
The BSW, named after its founder, a former communist, also opposes both immigration and military backing for Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion; both parties seek better relations with Moscow.
All three parties in Scholz's federal coalition are expected to lose votes and two may even struggle to make the five per cent threshold to enter parliament. Their sagging popularity could mean a return to a conservative-led alliance in next year's national polls.
Business leaders have warned of the threat of far-right extremism to Europe's largest economy, saying it could make it harder to attract skilled labour and investment. German politicians say populist rhetoric has fuelled physical attacks.
Read Also
world
Around 200,000 gather across Germany in latest protests against far-right
Anti-establishment parties on the rise
The AfD is led in Thuringia by Bjoern Hoecke, a man that some in the party considered so extremist they tried to expel him.
The former history teacher has called Berlin's memorial to Nazi Germany's Holocaust of Europe's Jews a "monument of shame" and was convicted earlier this year for using a Nazi slogan at a party rally.
While voting patterns in the formerly communist-run east are still distinct 30 years after reunification due to weaker party allegiances and greater economic pessimism, Sunday's elections give a flavour of nationwide and even European-wide trends.
As in France and elsewhere, the rise of anti-establishment parties in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing cost-of-living crisis are complicating coalition-building and governability.
"Everything has gone wrong with the established parties: We need a new direction," said Thomas Leser, who was in the audience at the BSW rally in Suhl in Thuringia.
Created in January, the BSW, which combines social conservatism and far-left economics, is expected to win up to 20 per cent and 15 per cent respectively in Thuringia and Saxony, which could put it in kingmaker position.
"I'm also not happy when a party becomes strong in which there really are right-wing extremists and Nazis," party leader Sahra Wagenknecht said at a rally this week. "But who is responsible for the fact that so many people in our country vote for such a party out of anger and despair?"
"It's the politicians who have been ruling over people's heads for years," she said.
Both the AfD and BSW, which together are polling between 40 to 50 per cent in Thuringia and Saxony albeit only 23 to 27.5 per cent nationwide, oppose arming Ukraine, a particularly sensitive issue in eastern Germany, arguing that Kyiv should make peace with Moscow.
"Let's take a look at the supply of weapons, you also have to look for diplomatic solutions here, no matter with whom," said Gerhard Iffert at a BSW event in Eisenach.
The party is only polling seven to nine per cent at national level but with Scholz's Social Democrats down to 15 to 16 per cent from 25.7 per cent at the 2021 elections, every vote counts.
A person waves a Saxony flag during Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) campaign event for the Saxony state elections in Dresden, Germany, Aug 29, 2024.
PHOTO: Reuters file
August 31, 2024
BERLIN — The far-right Alternative for Germany is predicted to come first in at least one of two elections in eastern states on Sunday (Sept 1), piling pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's federal coalition over the economy, immigration and support for Ukraine.
The 11-year-old AfD, which has greater support in the formerly communist-run east, will be unlikely to be able to form a state government even if it does win, as it is polling short of a majority and other parties refuse to collaborate with it.
But it will be the first time a far-right party has the most seats in a German state parliament since World War Two and its strength will complicate coalition building and could allow it to block constitutional changes and appointments of some judges.
The AfD is polling 30 per cent in Thuringia, nearly 10 points ahead of the conservatives in second place, while tying with them in Saxony on around 30 to 32 per cent. The newly-created far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is set to come third in both states.
Strong gains for the two anti-establishment parties herald growing instability in Europe's biggest economy, reflecting a fragmentation of the political landscape that could also complicate efforts to form coherent national governments.
The AfD's signature topic of migration shot up the agenda after a knife attack a week ago in the western city of Solingen in which a 26-year-old suspected Islamic State member from Syria is accused of killing three people.
"We want to end the failure of the state, the loss of control," AfD co-leader Alice Weidel told a campaign event on Wednesday in Dresden. "That can only be done through a sustainable change in migration and asylum policy."
The BSW, named after its founder, a former communist, also opposes both immigration and military backing for Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion; both parties seek better relations with Moscow.
All three parties in Scholz's federal coalition are expected to lose votes and two may even struggle to make the five per cent threshold to enter parliament. Their sagging popularity could mean a return to a conservative-led alliance in next year's national polls.
Business leaders have warned of the threat of far-right extremism to Europe's largest economy, saying it could make it harder to attract skilled labour and investment. German politicians say populist rhetoric has fuelled physical attacks.
Read Also
world
Around 200,000 gather across Germany in latest protests against far-right
Anti-establishment parties on the rise
The AfD is led in Thuringia by Bjoern Hoecke, a man that some in the party considered so extremist they tried to expel him.
The former history teacher has called Berlin's memorial to Nazi Germany's Holocaust of Europe's Jews a "monument of shame" and was convicted earlier this year for using a Nazi slogan at a party rally.
While voting patterns in the formerly communist-run east are still distinct 30 years after reunification due to weaker party allegiances and greater economic pessimism, Sunday's elections give a flavour of nationwide and even European-wide trends.
As in France and elsewhere, the rise of anti-establishment parties in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing cost-of-living crisis are complicating coalition-building and governability.
"Everything has gone wrong with the established parties: We need a new direction," said Thomas Leser, who was in the audience at the BSW rally in Suhl in Thuringia.
Created in January, the BSW, which combines social conservatism and far-left economics, is expected to win up to 20 per cent and 15 per cent respectively in Thuringia and Saxony, which could put it in kingmaker position.
"I'm also not happy when a party becomes strong in which there really are right-wing extremists and Nazis," party leader Sahra Wagenknecht said at a rally this week. "But who is responsible for the fact that so many people in our country vote for such a party out of anger and despair?"
"It's the politicians who have been ruling over people's heads for years," she said.
Both the AfD and BSW, which together are polling between 40 to 50 per cent in Thuringia and Saxony albeit only 23 to 27.5 per cent nationwide, oppose arming Ukraine, a particularly sensitive issue in eastern Germany, arguing that Kyiv should make peace with Moscow.
"Let's take a look at the supply of weapons, you also have to look for diplomatic solutions here, no matter with whom," said Gerhard Iffert at a BSW event in Eisenach.
The party is only polling seven to nine per cent at national level but with Scholz's Social Democrats down to 15 to 16 per cent from 25.7 per cent at the 2021 elections, every vote counts.
Right-wing extremist set to win the state election in Germany’s Thuringia
By Jeremias Lin and Oliver Noyan | Euractiv
Aug 27, 2024
Content-Type: Analysis
The two German states of Saxony and Thuringia are heading to the polls on Sunday to vote on the new state parliament. While the far-right AfD party is expected to get substantial gains, their meteoric rise is especially visible in Thuringia, where the party is led by the far-right extremist Björn Höcke. [Photo by Hannes P Albert/picture alliance via Getty Images]
Euractiv is part of the Trust Project >>>
A right-wing extremist is poised to win Sunday’s (1 September) local election in the German state of Thuringia, eying the deposition of prime minister amid growing dissatisfaction with the established parties.
The two German states of Saxony and Thuringia are heading to the polls on Sunday to vote on the new state parliament. While the far-right AfD party is expected to get substantial gains, their rise is especially visible in Thuringia, where the party is led by the far-right extremist Björn Höcke.
According to the polls, Höcke’s party is expected to win a landslide victory with around 30%—almost three times as many votes as all three of the coalition parties in Berlin combined—and around 10% ahead of the conservative CDU, which is polling in second place with 21%.
Höcke, who once said that it would be a “big problem” if Hitler was portrayed as the “absolute evil” in German political discourse, is aiming to become the party’s first-ever prime minister in one of the German states.
In both Saxony and Thuringia, the regional branches of the AfD are considered even more right-wing than the federal party. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency—the Verfassungsschutz—has categorised them as ‘definitely right-wing extremists’, while the federal AfD is so far only under suspicion of being extremist.
Höcke has already been convicted twice for using prohibited Nazi slogans. In July, the regional court in Halle found that he had employed the slogan “Everything for Germany,” originally used by Adolf Hitler’s Sturmabteilung (SA), during a November 2023 election campaign rally.
Furthermore, a court decided in 2019 that the labelling of Höcke as a “fascist” has “a verifiable factual basis” and is thus in line with German law and does not constitute defamation.
Cordon sanitaire and political dilemmas
An AfD-led government in Thuringia is unlikely, however. All the established parties have vowed not to join a coalition with the AfD. Forming a coalition will thus be tricky.
While the liberal FDP and the Greens are expected to fail to reach the 5% threshold to make it into parliament, the SPD is only polling at 6%, which means that the CDU will have to rely on one of the parties on the political fringes to build a government.
The far-left Die Linke and its spin-off of the BSW, which are polling at around 32% combined, would be uneasy partners for the CDU, which is heavily at odds with their left-wing ideology.
“‘The democratic parties of the political centre in our country are slowly losing the basis of the citizens’ trust,” CDU helm Friedrich Merz said at a press conference on Tuesday.
An alternative option could be building a minority government following the election, which could switch between the support of the far left and the far right on a case-to-case basis. There has already been a precedent for this, as the AfD and the CDU voted together several times in the past term.
Furthermore, the incumbent coalition of the far-left prime minister Bodo Ramelow is also based on a minority government.
However, the recent deadly knife attack by a Syrian refugee in Solingen could further exacerbate the situation, as the AfD is likely to profit from the current salience of the migration topic and could thus perform better than anticipated at the upcoming election.
If the AfD were to enter the government, as Höcke hopes, the EU would also have tools to curb the AfD’s grip on the Eastern German state.
According to an analysis by the Jacques Delors Centre, the European Commission could apply the rule of law mechanism, which it famously used in the case of Hungary in 2022, to the German state.
Such a toolbox could include preventive measures like rule of law reports, corrective measures like infringement procedures, and budgetary measures, which could see the €1.5 billion heavy EU funds for Thuringia withheld from states that violate fundamental EU principles.
[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe]
By Jeremias Lin and Oliver Noyan | Euractiv
Aug 27, 2024
Content-Type: Analysis
The two German states of Saxony and Thuringia are heading to the polls on Sunday to vote on the new state parliament. While the far-right AfD party is expected to get substantial gains, their meteoric rise is especially visible in Thuringia, where the party is led by the far-right extremist Björn Höcke. [Photo by Hannes P Albert/picture alliance via Getty Images]
Euractiv is part of the Trust Project >>>
A right-wing extremist is poised to win Sunday’s (1 September) local election in the German state of Thuringia, eying the deposition of prime minister amid growing dissatisfaction with the established parties.
The two German states of Saxony and Thuringia are heading to the polls on Sunday to vote on the new state parliament. While the far-right AfD party is expected to get substantial gains, their rise is especially visible in Thuringia, where the party is led by the far-right extremist Björn Höcke.
According to the polls, Höcke’s party is expected to win a landslide victory with around 30%—almost three times as many votes as all three of the coalition parties in Berlin combined—and around 10% ahead of the conservative CDU, which is polling in second place with 21%.
Höcke, who once said that it would be a “big problem” if Hitler was portrayed as the “absolute evil” in German political discourse, is aiming to become the party’s first-ever prime minister in one of the German states.
In both Saxony and Thuringia, the regional branches of the AfD are considered even more right-wing than the federal party. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency—the Verfassungsschutz—has categorised them as ‘definitely right-wing extremists’, while the federal AfD is so far only under suspicion of being extremist.
Höcke has already been convicted twice for using prohibited Nazi slogans. In July, the regional court in Halle found that he had employed the slogan “Everything for Germany,” originally used by Adolf Hitler’s Sturmabteilung (SA), during a November 2023 election campaign rally.
Furthermore, a court decided in 2019 that the labelling of Höcke as a “fascist” has “a verifiable factual basis” and is thus in line with German law and does not constitute defamation.
Cordon sanitaire and political dilemmas
An AfD-led government in Thuringia is unlikely, however. All the established parties have vowed not to join a coalition with the AfD. Forming a coalition will thus be tricky.
While the liberal FDP and the Greens are expected to fail to reach the 5% threshold to make it into parliament, the SPD is only polling at 6%, which means that the CDU will have to rely on one of the parties on the political fringes to build a government.
The far-left Die Linke and its spin-off of the BSW, which are polling at around 32% combined, would be uneasy partners for the CDU, which is heavily at odds with their left-wing ideology.
“‘The democratic parties of the political centre in our country are slowly losing the basis of the citizens’ trust,” CDU helm Friedrich Merz said at a press conference on Tuesday.
An alternative option could be building a minority government following the election, which could switch between the support of the far left and the far right on a case-to-case basis. There has already been a precedent for this, as the AfD and the CDU voted together several times in the past term.
Furthermore, the incumbent coalition of the far-left prime minister Bodo Ramelow is also based on a minority government.
However, the recent deadly knife attack by a Syrian refugee in Solingen could further exacerbate the situation, as the AfD is likely to profit from the current salience of the migration topic and could thus perform better than anticipated at the upcoming election.
If the AfD were to enter the government, as Höcke hopes, the EU would also have tools to curb the AfD’s grip on the Eastern German state.
According to an analysis by the Jacques Delors Centre, the European Commission could apply the rule of law mechanism, which it famously used in the case of Hungary in 2022, to the German state.
Such a toolbox could include preventive measures like rule of law reports, corrective measures like infringement procedures, and budgetary measures, which could see the €1.5 billion heavy EU funds for Thuringia withheld from states that violate fundamental EU principles.
[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe]
No comments:
Post a Comment