By AFP
September 25, 2024
Investors and analysts warn that more state support is needed for the world's second-largest economy - Copyright AFP WANG Zhao
Peter CATTERALL
China this week unveiled a bundle of new measures aimed at kickstarting its economy, which has been battered in recent years by unprecedented headwinds including a property sector crisis and sluggish spending.
The stimulus announced by the central bank come after warnings that more state support was needed to get the world’s second-largest economy back on track and hit growth targets for 2024.
Here are the steps announced by Beijing this week, and how experts are reacting:
– Rate cuts –
The People’s Bank of China on Wednesday cut its medium-term lending facility — the interest for one-year loans to financial institutions — from 2.3 percent to 2.0 percent. The rate was last lowered in July.
Most Asian markets rose following the announcement, which came two days after monetary policymakers said they would lower its 14-day lending rate.
The raft of measures, including the cuts, are considered the boldest in years as Beijing aims to revive economic activity.
But Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said the batch of monetary easing measures has left investors “wondering what Beijing will do next on the fiscal front”.
“Eventually fiscal stimulus matters much more when an economy is in a kind of liquidity trap,” he said in a note.
– Cash injection –
Bank chief Pan Gongsheng also unveiled a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio — which dictates how much cash banks must keep on hand — hoping to boost lending to companies and consumers.
Beijing said the cut would inject around a trillion yuan ($141.7 billion) in long-term liquidity into the financial market.
“The press conference exceeded market expectation,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.
The loosening of monetary policy “is somewhat overdue, but nonetheless helpful to lift market confidence”, said Zhang.
But he added: “What’s missing in the policy package is fiscal policy.”
– Mortgage help –
One of the major drags on the economy in recent years is the housing market, which has been mired in a slump — home sales volume have tracked a steady decline this year.
But Pan said Tuesday that interest rates on existing mortgage loans would be lowered, which he said would benefit 150 million people across China.
“Lower mortgage rates could allow the households to spare a bit more money to spend and should support consumption recovery,” said Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.
– Lower down payments –
In a potential further boost to the housing market, Pan added that minimum down payments for first and second homes would be “unified”, with the latter dropping from 25 percent to 15 percent.
“The most effective way for stabilising growth is to end the housing crisis,” said Nomura in a note Wednesday, pointing out that measures unveiled by Beijing earlier this year have yet to have a major impact.
A quota for state purchases of unused homes announced in May “has barely been used”, Nomura said in a report this month.
“Few new homes have been bought by local governments, the issue of delayed home delivery has failed to be effectively addressed, and the property sector remains in a downturn,” it added.
– Swap programme –
Pan said a new “swap programme” allowing firms to acquire liquidity from the central bank would “significantly enhance” their ability to access funds to buy stocks.
However, Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, urged caution despite a market rally that followed.
“The (central bank’s) latest moves are promising, but it feels like we’re still waiting for the main event,” he said.
“Deflation, de-leveraging, and sluggish growth already have investors on edge, but when you toss in surprise measures like this, it starts feeling more like a scramble than a solution.
“It’s almost as if they’re trying to extinguish a fire with a flame thrower.”
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