Russia’s Labor Shortage Worsens as Central Asian Workers Stay Away

By Eurasianet - Aug 07, 2026

• Central Asian entries into Russia for work reportedly fell from 2.3 million to 1.9 million in the first half of 2026 as tighter Russian migration rules and alternative employment destinations discouraged workers.
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• Uzbekistan is actively diversifying labor migration away from Russia, while Russia’s share of Uzbek remittances has declined even as total remittance inflows increase.
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• Russia’s exceptionally tight labor market is contributing to inflationary pressure and could constrain economic growth long after the war in Ukraine ends.
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The bad economic news keeps coming for the Russian economy. An analysis of Russian government data by the business daily Vedomosti shows that the influx of Central Asian labor migrants to Russia fell by roughly 15 percent during the first half of 2026,  deepening an already critical labor shortage in the country.

Official entries for work purposes by Central Asian citizens fell to 1.9 million during the first six months of this year, down from 2.3 million the previous year, according to the Vedomosti report. A large majority of Central Asian guest workers, 1.1 million, came from Uzbekistan during H1 2026.

At a time when Russia is in desperate need of workers to fill vacancies in a wide variety of service sectors, the Kremlin has increased barriers to employment for Central Asian guest workers. Vedomosti cited Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Russian-government affiliated FinancialUniversity, as attributing the drop in guest workers’ arrivals in part to stricter migration policies and higher costs for work permits and medical certifications. 

Bureaucratic red tape is not the only cause for the decline. Central Asian leaders, led by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, have actively tried over the past few years to steer would-be labor migrants away from Russia. In June, for example, Mirziyoyev issued a decree creating a diplomatic position at embassies in China, France, Indonesia, the UAE, the United States, and the United Kingdom tasked with promoting both tourism and labor migration.

In 2024, the Uzbek government launched a strategy to regulate labor migration and secure higher-paying, more skilled positions for those who seek work abroad. A key pillar of the strategy is forging official guest-worker arrangements with European Union member states. The policy has registered some success, such as a 2024 migration and mobility partnership agreement with Germany to admit skilled Uzbek workers. The agreement also “contains comprehensive rules for returning citizens of Uzbekistan who are required to leave Germany,” according to a German government statement.

Remittance figures for Uzbek workers abroad appear to reflect the new labor migration patterns. Money sent home to family members by Uzbek guest workers during the first quarter of 2026  increased by 13 percent overall, reaching $3.8 billion, compared to the same quarter the previous year. While Russia remained the overall largest source of remittances, its share fell to 72 percent, or $2.75 billion, during Q1 2026, down from 78 percent during the same period the previous year. Remittances from Kazakhstan, South Korea and EU states all edged up during the period. 

Central Asian guest workers have traditionally played an important role in Russia in plugging labor shortages in low-wage unskilled sectors, including construction, sanitation and other municipal services. With Russia now in desperate need of new recruits to keep its war effort in Ukraine afloat, the country’s labor market does not appear to have a way to compensate for the decline in Central Asian labor migrants. Civic services, accordingly, seem set to suffer.

Russia currently has up to 2.5 million vacant jobs, and the unemployment rate is estimated at 2 percent, a level that many economists believe fuels rapid inflation. The general consensus among economists is that the optimal unemployment rate for a thriving economy is in the 4 percent range. 

In April, Russian Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina stated that “the lack of workers remains a primary threat to price stability,” according to a report published by the Moscow Times.

Inflation in Russia is steadily creeping upward. In July, the Central Bank revised its annual inflation estimate for 2026 from 4.5-5.5 percent to 6-7 percent. The bank predicted that inflation would stand at 6.3 percent by the end of September, Interfax reported.

Beyond the immediate inflationary threat, the deepening labor shortage creates a longer-term danger to fostering economic growth once the fighting stops in Ukraine. By 2030, some estimates show that Russia will need to increase its workforce by 10.9 million to replace retiring workers and fill new positions.

By Eurasianet