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Saturday, August 15, 2026

Courage for Peace, Not for War


 August 14, 2026

Photo: Swedish Red Cross.

Can we escape the terrors of our time?

In September of 2025, during a Saturday vigil in Stockholm’s Odenplan Square, Isak Hernández, age nine, asked if he could recite a poem he wrote. Deeply troubled by images he saw, day and night, from Gaza, he resolved not to be silent. “Their lives are not numbers,” Isak declared. “Their dreams are not ashes.” His refrain repeated: “I won’t be silent,” and he begged the world, “Listen to me.”

Isabella Lundgren, a Swedish jazz vocalist, heard Isak deliver his poem. She felt his words had reverberated throughout Sweden. No one could possibly turn away. Everyone, she said, bore the responsibility of witnessing. She and Isak collaborated to turn his poem into a song entitled “Their dreams are not ashes.”

Their witness is crucial for counteracting decisions on the part of countries which have newly decided to enter NATO.

We should acknowledge that NATO has done nothing to stop the U.S. provisioned Israeli genocide or to restrain Israel.

On the contrary, NATO seeks fuller integration of Israel’s “security” into NATO strategies. What’s more, tradebetween Israel and European countries continues.

The Swedish government ought to argue that NATO must force Israel to end their genocide of Palestinian people.

We should note that Israel possesses at least ninety-one thermonuclear weapons which it refuses to declare. Each of these weapons would cause the death of at least six million people – a Holocaust – in a can, waiting to be opened on human civilization’s last day. A planetary omnicide comprising every conceivable genocide, military analysts agree, is almost certain to occur days, hours, or even minutes after any of these weapons are ever again used.

Sadly, Sweden’s hurried entry into NATO in 2024, alongside the rise of armaments industries and even support for nuclear weapons acquisition, compromises Sweden’s historic capacity to resist the rush into unimaginable genocides.

What are the major threats we all face? Surely, the list must begin with the possibility of nuclear annihilation. Next, we must reckon with possible ecological collapse. Following this, we must prepare for outbreaks of new pandemics. And, achingly, we must oppose genocide. War is not the answer. Militarism exacerbates each of these threats.

Now, as corrupt political leaders extract the hard-earned resources of people throughout Europe and pour those resources into bulging coffers of, primarily, U.S. military contractors, it’s crucial to hear Isak Hernández’s pledge not to be silent. We also can learn from the legacy of Sweden’s heroic diplomat, Count Folke Bernadotte.

 As Vice President of Sweden’s Red Cross, during World War II, he witnessed first-hand how prisoners in concentration camps suffered. He resolved to negotiate with SS leader Heinrich Himmler for the release of prisoners. Bernadotte collaborated with Danish, Swedish, and Norwegian relief groups to create the White Buses campaign. Ultimately, they managed to free over 17,000 thousand prisoners from concentration camps.

During World War II, Adolph Hitler, eager as current European leaders for war with Russia, plainly aimed to eliminate the Jews in Europe. He wanted to create “Grossedeutchland,” – “Greater Germany.” The SS had turned into an immense bureaucracy under Himmler’s control, systematically enacting Hitler’s hideous “final solution.” Amid chaotic and extremely dangerous conditions Bernadotte and his team steadily negotiated liberation and transport of prisoners.

Sune Persson records, in Escape from the Third Reich: Folke Bernadotte and the White Buses, the minutes from the May 13, 1945, gathering of the Jewish Stockholm Community. The chairperson thanked the Swedish Red Cross and Count Bernadotte:

“When the assembly now gathers here today, it is with a strong sense of entering a new epoch. These recent times, darker than humanity has ever known them, have reached a climax, so desperately coveted, and we stand –yearning, inquiring, hopeful – on the threshold of a new world…We would like to think at this moment of the admirable rescue operation undertaken by the Swedish Red Cross, bringing thousands of people – among them a considerable number of Jews – here to our country, to liberation from the horrors of the concentration camps and a terrible demise.”

But Bernadotte’s work on behalf of refugees and mediation wasn’t finished. After World War II, the United Nations Security Council unanimously chose Bernadotte to be the UN Security Council mediator in the Arab–Israeli conflict of 1947–1948.

Count Folke Bernadotte’s first report to the Secretary General outlined the desperate plight of Palestinian refugees, nearly a quarter of whom, he wrote, “are simply camped out and living under trees. In most places there was absolutely no sanitary accommodation, and since water was drawn from surface collections, and typhoid was endemic, grave possibilities in this regard at this season of the year were likely.”

He surveyed destroyed Palestinian villages and witnessed long lines of people waiting for food, scarce medical aid, and an ongoing humanitarian disaster. He and U.S. diplomat Ralph Bunche wrote a proposal to meet short-term and long-term needs of refugees. Their plan would allow for fixed boundaries between the Israelis and the Palestinians, with an economic union between the states and assurance that Palestinian refugees could return.

“It would be an offence against the principles of elemental justice,” Bernadotte wrote, “if these innocent victims of the conflict were denied the right to return to their homes, while Jewish immigrants flow into Palestine.”

Boldly and truthfully, Bernadotte drew links between meeting humanitarian needs and creating an environment in which peace could take hold. He insisted the UN must respect the refugees’ “unconditional right to make a free choice.”

Bernadotte’s and Ralph Bunche’s report was submitted to the UN on September 18, 1948, but Bernadotte did not live to present it in person. On September 17, terrorists from an extremist Zionist group, the Stern Gang, ambushed Bernadotte’s motorcade. They fired six bullets into Bernadotte’s body. His colleague, the French Colonel André Sérot was killed by seventeen bullets.

Count Bernadotte’s principled humanitarian work may have cost him his life, but we can choose to continue his legacy.

It’s encouraging to know that the 2026 Stockholm Forum for Peace and Development has recognized a fundamental reality: “many modern security risks, from climate shocks to pandemics and cyber threats, do not have hard security solutions and do not stop at borders. They are, however, further exacerbated when geopolitical rivalries undermine cooperative solutions.”

I hope Count Bernadotte’s inspiring life and Isak Hernández’s compassionate insistence: “I won’t be silent,” will steer us as we reckon with what Dr. King called “the fierce urgency of now.”

Kathy Kelly (kathy@worldbeyondwar.org), Board President of World BEYOND War, co-coordinates the November 2023 Merchants of Death War Crimes Tribunal. She is the author of Other Lands Have Dreams, published by CounterPunch/AK Press.

Friday, August 14, 2026

Brazilian police recover Matisse works stolen in 2025

Sao Paulo (AFP) – Police in Brazil have recovered eight engravings by French artist Henri Matisse that were stolen from a Sao Paulo library last year by an organized gang of thieves, officials said on Thursday.



Issued on: 14/08/2026 - FRANCE24

Sau Paulo police say thieves overpowered a security guard at the library before grabbing the Matisse engravings and fleeing © Handout / SAO PAULO'S POLICE PRESS OFFICE/AFP

Vividly colored artwork from Matisse's limited-edition art book "Jazz" were laid out on a table alongside a handgun, in an image released by police.

The works, estimated to be worth $200,000, were found at a home in the town of Sao Bernardo do Campo, near Sao Paulo.

Officers arrested a man who was keeping the works for the mastermind of the heist, police said, adding that he will face charges of receiving stolen goods and illegal weapon possession.

The alleged mastermind was apprehended in April and a woman has also been arrested in the case.

Police said the gang behind the robbery was highly organized and structured, with specific tasks assigned to members as it stole artworks in Brazil and sold them on the black market.

In the Matisse robbery last year, police say thieves overpowered a security guard and an elderly couple visiting the Mario de Andrade Library, grabbed the engravings and other items from a glass dome where they were kept, and fled.

They also stole five works by the Brazilian artist Candido Portinari, but these have not been recovered and may have already been sold.

One of the suspects was arrested the day after the theft via the use of the city's facial recognition system.

As part of the investigation, police conducted operations targeting "establishments related to the auction market and the sale of artworks" in municipalities such as Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

The Matisse engravings were part of a modern art exhibition highlighting a collaboration between the library and the Museum of Modern Art of Sao Paulo.

"Jazz" was published in France in 1947 and there are 250 copies signed by the artist, according to auction house Christie's.

© 2026 AFP

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

US Appellate Court Ends Biden-Era Mass Parole Programs


Key Takeaways

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit dismissed a lawsuit by immigration groups challenging the Trump administration’s termination of Biden-era mass parole programs and the use of expedited removal, vacating a lower-court stay.
 
The appellate court ruled that the district court lacked jurisdiction and that the plaintiffs lacked legal standing, finding their requested relief would not alter their members’ exposure to expedited removal under existing federal authority.
 
The decision allows the Trump administration to continue ending the parole programs—which had released millions of people into the United States—and to subject former parolees to expedited removal.


(The Center Square) – U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has effectively ended a Biden-era mass parole program after it dismissed a lawsuit against the Trump administration.

The ruling is seen as a major victory for the Trump administration and for dozens of states that sued to stop parole programs created by the Biden administration that federal judges ruled were illegal but the programs continued.


Under the second Trump administration, Biden-era parole programs were terminated and expedited removal of those released into the country illegally began.

In order to stop this, several immigration groups sued led by the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights. Their lawsuit alleges a Department of Homeland Security memo and email violated the Administrative Procedure Act and Fifth Amendment Due Process Clause.

The groups won their first round in court after a district court granted a partial stay “to the extent the Challenged Actions subject to expedited removal individuals who have been, at any time, paroled into the United States at a point of entry.”

The appellate court reversed this ruling, arguing “the district court lacked jurisdiction. Therefore, we vacate the district court’s stay.”

It also clarified that “Although, we have jurisdiction over this appeal, the district court lacked jurisdiction.”

The appellate court also squashed the lawsuit altogether, ruling the plaintiffs don’t have legal standing to sue.

In its 14-page ruling, it also tore apart the plaintiffs’ arguments, stating its counterarguments “failed.”


The requests they made for a stay were also faulty, the court said. “Even if the number of expedited removals increased because of the [memo and email], that does not mean getting rid of [either] will reverse that trend,” the court ruled. “The stay the plaintiffs requested would not affect the Government’s authority to continue subjecting the plaintiffs to expedited removal” under federal law.

The court also clarified in a note to its ruling that “Parole termination is ultimately irrelevant to our analysis here. The plaintiffs do not challenge the regulation rendering ex-parolees liable to expedited removal under the arriving in authority. So whether or not parole termination has taken place, and whether or not ex-parolees are subject to expedited removal under the designation authority, the organizational plaintiffs’ members would remain equally subject to expedited removal under the arriving in authority.”

At issue is the Trump administration’s expedited removal of millions of inadmissible foreign nationals who were released into the country through more than a dozen parole programs created by the Biden administration. The U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security identified the parole programs as illegal when bringing impeachment charges against former DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, The Center Square reported.

Dozens of states sued, led by Texas and Florida, arguing the parole programs were illegal, The Center Square reported. A federal judge in Florida ruled more than once that the parole programs were illegal and expressed exasperation that they continued, The Center Square reported.

A successful appeal in this case is unlikely.

“Plaintiffs cannot seek relief that changes nothing for them. The plaintiffs here tried to do just that. So we vacate the stay issued by the district court,” the court held.

The parole programs that were terminated led to millions of foreign nationals entering the U.S. They include one created for Central American Minors, a CHNV program for Cuban, Honduran, Nicaraguan and Venezuelans and a “Family Reunification Parole Process” for Salvadorans, Guatemalans, Hondurans and Columbians.

The CHNV parole program ushered in more than three million people in three years deemed inadmissible under federal immigration law, The Center Square reported. They totaled more than the individual populations of 17 states.


Another 2.5 million Colombians, Salvadorans, Guatemalans and Hondurans were paroled through their own parole program, The Center Square reported. They totaled more than the individual populations of 15 states.

The Trump administration also terminated Biden era “Circumvention of Lawful Pathways” rule that altered the asylum process, a phone app created to expedite entry into the U.S. for inadmissible foreign nationals, among others, The Center Square reported.

Now those released into the country through the parole programs can be deported.



Haiti: Bishop Says Gangs Target Church As Violence Shuts Parishes, Schools


Street scene and poverty in Haiti. Photo Credit: UNHCR/Juan Pablo Terminello

 EWTN News
By Tessa Gervasini


Key Takeaways

Bishop Joseph Gontrand Décoste of Jérémie describes the Catholic Church in Haiti as the last remaining moral, ethical and spiritual bulwark, which is why gangs are targeting it, while stressing that the Church continues to pray, hope and function amid the violence.

Gang violence has forced the closure of 40 parishes in Port-au-Prince, led to attacks on schools and religious houses, and compelled aid organizations such as Sister Paesie’s Kizito Family to shelter dozens of newly displaced or orphaned children after recent assaults that killed civilians.

U.S. bishops continue to press for extension of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian nationals, warning that returning people to Haiti would send them into a country dominated by gangs, marked by institutional collapse, and still experiencing severe insecurity and humanitarian crisis.


Bishop Joseph Gontrand Décoste of Jérémie, Haiti, detailed the ongoing violence in the nation and warned that the Church has become a target for gangs.

The Church is “the last remaining bulkhead — moral, ethical, spiritual, and prophetic,” he said. “That is why they want to eliminate us.”

Décoste told Aid to the Church in Need (ACN), an international Catholic pastoral aid organization, that despite the widespread violence in the Caribbean nation, the Church remains hopeful.

“We keep praying, singing, and dancing. In Haiti we say: ‘As long as they haven’t cut off our head, we still have hope of wearing a hat.’ That is why we never lose hope,” he said.

The bishop thanked organizations working to offer aid to the nation. He said: “Your prayers sustain us enormously; without them we could not carry on. Thank you very much from the bottom of my heart.”

Gang violence in the nation continues to rise with armed gangs controlling between 70% and 90% of the capital.

Amid the violence, in Port-au-Prince, 40 parishes have had to close, according to ACN. Schools and religious houses have also been attacked, burned, and seized.

Sister Paesie, a Catholic sister who operates an organization to aid children in Cité Soleil, Haiti, also highlighted the increasing violence.

The sister and her team at the Kizito Family, which runs homes, schools, and catechism programs, recently took in dozens more children following numerous recent attacks.

Sister Paesie told EWTN News that last week gangs attacked an area in Port-au-Prince where the organization operates one of its schools. Most of the population fled besides a few elderly people who were unable to, and most were killed.

“The parents began bringing children to us for shelter,” she told EWTN News. On Aug. 9, “we took in about 20” and “others came yesterday, and about 50 today.”

“The Missionaries of Charity accepted to take in the girls” and “we have the boys,” she said.

“Among them were four brothers [who] were alone when the attack took place. The parents had gone to work, and a cousin grabbed them and fled. When the father returned home, he was not aware of the attack. He was killed and burned. The mother did not show up … where the people took refuge,” she said.

Sister Paesie also detailed how the attacks and destruction have left organizations, many of them run by religious orders, unable to operate and provide aid to those in need.

She specifically noted a Missionaries of Charity convent that was attacked and burned down two years ago.

It remains “completely empty and the buildings destroyed,” she said. “It used to receive more than 2,000 patients every year.”
U.S. bishops urge protection for Haitian nationals on TPS

U.S. bishops have continuously warned of the unsafe conditions in Haiti, urging lawmakers to extend temporary protected status (TPS) for Haitian nationals living in the United States.


Archbishop Thomas Wenski of Miami has previously said that ending temporary residency protections for Haitians would be “sending people into a burning building.”

He said Haiti “remains a country on the brink,” noting the “widespread gang violence and kidnapping, a rampant cholera epidemic, and spreading food insecurity.”

“The lack of functioning state institutions has resulted in a general breakdown of security, with attacks on women and children becoming commonplace,” he said. “It would be an act of abject cruelty for the United States to send families back to such dangerous and unsafe conditions.”

Other Florida bishops, and many Ohio bishops, have also addressed the matter, calling for a more permanent solution to care for the refugees.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation in April, and the Senate has not acted on that measure or on a bill (S. 4814), which would require the Homeland Security secretary to designate Haiti for TPS through early 2029, giving eligible Haitian nationals in the United States protection from deportation and authorization to work while conditions in Haiti remain unsafe.



About EWTN News
EWTN News is the rebranding of the Catholic News Agency (CNA), following the decision by EWTN — which was launched as a Catholic television network in 1981 by Mother Angelica, PCPA — that brings CNA and its affiliated ACI international outlets under a single, unified identity. Previous CNA articles may be foundby clicking here.
View all posts by EWTN News →


Monoskop.org

https://monoskop.org/images/9/95/Hardt_Michael_Negri_Antonio_Empire.pdf

4.3 The Multitude against Empire. 393. Notes. 415. Index. 473. Page 11. PREFACE. Empire is materializing before our very eyes. Over the past several decades, as ...

Rebels-library.org

http://rebels-library.org/files/multitude.pdf

Page 1. MULTITUDE. WAR AND DEMOCRACY. IN THE AGE OF EMPIRE. MICHAEL HARDT ... Empire calls on war for its legitimation, the multitude calls on democracy as its ...


Newleftreview.org

https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii120/articles/empire-twenty-years-on.pdf

Just as today's. Empire was formed in response to the insurgencies of the multitudes from below, so too, potentially, it could fall to them, as long as those.


 











Trump’s $24 Billion Tax on 401(K)s



 August 12, 2026


Trump hotel and casino, Las Vegas. Photo: Jeffrey St. Clair.

You may not have heard about this latest tax from Trump. That could be because he’s not going through Congress to get it. Also, this scam could get buried in the middle of his many other grifting schemes. Trump is starting a new special subscription service to his social media platform, Truth Social, where big investors will pay $100,000 a month for advance access to Trump posts that can move markets.

This means that the next time Trump posts that he will blow Iran off the map and sends oil prices soaring, the people who paid Trump’s fee will have the opportunity to buy oil futures before the jump. The same story applies on the way down, as when he posts that a deal with Iran’s leaders is imminent.

And the inside information goes well beyond oil prices. He may announce a big military contract with Lockheed or one of his sons’ companies, sending stock prices soaring. Or he could announce a big DEI investigation of Disney or some other Hollywood entertainment company, causing their stock to plummet.

There are an infinite number of ways that Trump Truth Social announcements can move markets. This subscription service allows rich investors around the country to get in on the action.

If it’s not clear how Trump’s scheme amounts to a tax on your 401(k), think more carefully. If Trump’s clients get the jump on a big rise in oil prices, that means that they get the money, not you. This is true even if, like the vast majority of small investors, you are not actively managing your funds.

The person who is managing whatever fund(s) you hold will pay the higher price for oil or stock or anything else the funds might buy because Trump’s accomplices got their first. The same applies on the way down. The fund will get less money because the Trump gang already sold the stock before your fund manager had the chance to do so.

At this point, we can’t know how much money is involved because we don’t know how many big investors are prepared to sign up for what is blatantly an insider trading scheme. But we can do some speculation.

First, we need to calculate how much money an investor would expect to make from a service where they are paying $1.2 million a year. Since this scheme would likely lead to civil and possibly criminal charges if the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or Justice Department ever gets taken over by honest people, it seems a very big payoff would be required.

Any person paying Trump for insider information would need to expect substantial legal bills, and also the possibility of being forced to leave the country or face prison time. (Ask Martha Stewart.) Let’s say the payoff has to be at least 20 to 1, which would mean they would need to earn $24 million a year for their Trump Truth Social subscription to make sense.

Then we need to speculate on how many people are prepared to sign up for Trump’s racket. We know Wall Street is a cesspool, but this level of open corruption is probably too sleazy even for most of the big traders. Still, there could be a 1,000 Trump-loving sewer dwellers who don’t mind being open about their thefts.

In that case, the Trump insiders would be siphoning off $24 billion a year from other investors in the market. That is not huge in the context of a $7.5 trillion budget, but it is larger than many things we have big fights over.

For example, the AIDS program for Africa, which saved tens of millions of lives, and Elon Musk eagerly fed into the wood chopper, cost $6 billion a year. That’s roughly a fourth of Trump’s 401(k) tax. The cost of extending the subsidies in the ACA exchanges, which Trump and the Republicans ended, would have been a bit higherat $27 billion a year.

So, 401(k) holders and other small investors are paying a considerable chunk of money through this “tax” to Trump and his enrolled insiders. As I said, this tax is not going to Congress for approval, but we can assume that all the Republicans in Congress approve of it. If not, Trump would be impeached for such a blatantly illegal scheme, but we know the Republican motto: “If Trump Does It, It’s Good.”

Five Takeaways from the US July Jobs Report

August 11, 2026

The loss of 23,000 jobs in July caught many of us by surprise, but the downward revisions to the prior two months’ data was a bigger deal. In any case, the labor market looks weaker after this report than it did previously.

+ The job loss was driven by a quirky seasonal adjustment for public school teachers, not anything in the real world.

+ The downward revisions to May and June’s numbers mean we are on a slower job growth path.

+ Slowing wage growth means a weaker job market and makes consumption growth more precarious.

+ Prime-age men (ages 25-54) are taking a hit with lower EPOPs.

+Duration measures of unemployment may fit with a weaker labor market story.

The Job Loss Was Due to a Decline in Local Government Education Jobs that Didn’t Happen

The July report showed a drop in local government education employment of 45,000. Pulling this out would give modest job growth of 22,000 in July.

I know Trumpers like to play games with the numbers to tell a better story, but last I looked, I’m not on the payroll. The reality is that the seasonal adjustments in education can lead to weird outcomes in the summer months. School systems have changed the timing of their school years and often also their payroll system.

As a result, we had a 44.5k drop in July of 2018, which was followed by a 28.7k increase in August. There was a 46.3k drop in August of 2017, followed by a 43.9k increase in September. And in 2016, we lost 45.8k jobs in June but then gained 94.6k jobs in July.

The long and short is this 45k drop did not happen. Perhaps there is some decline in employment in public schools. Enrollments are dropping and budgets are stretched, but it’s a safe bet that most, or all, of these jobs will be back by September.

May and June Job Growth Were Revised Down by 103,000

While the job loss reported for July may not be a big deal, the downward revisions for the prior two months are. Taken together with the July number, job growth averaged just 20k a month over the last three months. Even adding in the 45,000 education jobs for July, the average is still just 35k a month.

That might still be fast enough to keep unemployment from rising in a zero-immigration economy, but it is considerably slower than what we were looking at before we got the July data.

Perhaps more concerning than the absolute number is that virtually all the job growth is in the health care and social services sectors. Growth over the last three months in these sectors has averaged 33k, more than 90% of total, even adjusting for the July education drop.

Outside of these sectors, there is very little growth anywhere. Manufacturing has been creating some jobs recently, but the average is just 5k a month. Construction is a bit better with an average of 10k. The mining sector, which includes oil drilling, has actually lost a small number of jobs since April. Even the restaurant sector is losing jobs.

There is nothing wrong with jobs in health care and social assistance. It is important work and many of these jobs are highly skilled and well-paid. It just doesn’t make for a very balanced economy.

Wage Growth Is Slowing and Not Keeping Pace with Inflation

The year-over-year increase in the hourly wage was just 3.2% in July. We have been seeing a gradual slowing from a pace of more than 4.0% in 2024. If we just take the annualized rate for the average of the last three months (May-July), compared with the prior three months (Feb-April), the story is even worse. Wage growth has slowed to 2.5%.

This raises three big issues. First, it is hard to reconcile this sort of slowing in wage growth with a strong labor market story. We can be happy that the unemployment rate is just 4.1%, which is very low by historical standards, but if workers find it easy to get jobs, it’s hard to see why wage growth would slow even in the face of rising inflation.

The second is that workers are now falling behind inflation. That means that families, who for some time have been telling pollsters and politicians that they feel financially stretched, are likely feeling even more stretched now. This is not an economy that is working for them.

Finally, an economy with near-zero job growth and negative real wage growth is not going to be driven by the growth in workers’ consumption. Insofar as we see consumption growth, it is going to come from high-income households spending based on stock gains and capital income. That is not a pretty picture, nor a well-balanced economy.

Employment Rates for Prime Age Men Have Fallen Sharply Since May

In 2025, there was a sharp deterioration in the labor market for disadvantaged groups, notably Black workers and young (ages 20-24) workers. That has been reversed this year. The unemployment rate for these groups has fallen back almost to its 2024 level. However, the situation seems to have deteriorated sharply in the last two months for prime age (ages 25-54) men.

Their employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) fell 0.9 percentage points (PP) in June to 85.7%. It recovered only 0.1 PP of this fall in July, leaving the rate 0.8 PP below the May level. The monthly data are highly erratic, so it is possible that we will still see this decline partially reversed in August or September, but the data we have makes it look like the labor market has deteriorated noticeably for these workers in the last two months.

In the same vein, the EPOP for college grads fell by 1.0 PP to 68.8% in July. To be clear, college grads are doing better than those with less education by almost every measure, but their situation does seem to have gotten worse recently. Also, the EPOP for native-born workers is down 0.9 PP year-over-year, while it is unchanged for foreign-born workers.

Unemployment Duration Has Gotten Shorter, and That May Not be a Good Thing

All the duration measures of unemployment showed improvement in July. The average duration of unemployment spells fell from 25.5 weeks to 24.9 weeks. The median duration declined from 11.0 weeks to 10.5 weeks. And the share of long-term unemployed (more than 26 weeks) fell from 27.3% to 25.5%.

This could all be good news, since it looks like people are less likely to spend a long period of time looking for work. But there is another possible story. The long-term unemployed may be giving up looking for work and dropping out of the labor market. That would not be a good story. This would also be consistent in the decline in the percentage of unemployment due to permanent layoffs from 35.5% to 34.2%.

That would be a considerably worse story about the labor market. But before hitting the panic button, remember these data are highly erratic, and these relatively small changes can easily be reversed next month.

On Net, not a Terrible Story, but Definitely Cause for Concern

If we recognize the seasonal adjustment issue with public school employment, it’s hard to say a job report with a 0.1 PP decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% is a horror story. But the report definitely does point to problems, most notably slower wage growth and the huge concentration of job growth in a single sector.

This first appeared on Dean Baker’s Beat the Press blog.

Dean Baker is the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.