THE 'STANS
Ukraine Seizes Diplomatic Opportunity with Central Asian States
- Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are moving away from strict neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war by engaging more openly with Ukrainian leaders.
- This shift is evident in recent high-level meetings between Kazakh and Uzbek officials and their Ukrainian counterparts, signaling a desire for more independent foreign policy.
- While not abandoning neutrality, these engagements suggest a potential role for Kazakhstan in facilitating peace talks and a broader effort by Ukraine to strengthen ties with Central Asian nations.
Central Asian neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war is undergoing a not-so-subtle shift. Neutrality for Central Asian states during the first three-plus years of the conflict meant keeping Russia happy by keeping Kyiv at arm’s length. But now, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are showing greater willingness to openly engage with Ukrainian leaders.
On September 23 at the UN General Assembly, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev became the first Central Asian leader since the start of the war in 2022 to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Three days later, also in New York, Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov met with his Ukrainian counterpart Andrii Sybiha. The countries’ top diplomats last met it 2021.
“All of this speaks to the fact that, if we take Uzbekistan for example, it is striving to express a more firmly independent position regardless of the very serious pressure applied by Russia,” said Farhod Tolipov, the director of Knowledge Caravan, a Tashkent-based think tank.
At the same time, the meetings bear no indications Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan plan to abandon neutrality or openly defy the Kremlin.
Some experts believe Tokayev may be trying to position Kazakhstan as a facilitator of peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials. “This meeting might be a turning point for Kazakhstan as a visible negotiator at the global level,” Nurbolat Nyshanbayev, a foreign policy expert at TuranUniversity in Almaty, said, referring to the Tokayev-Zelensky meeting.
In a Fox News interview after meeting Tokayev, Zelensky said he would be open to talks with Putin in various countries, including Kazakhstan.
“Though not a mediator, Kazakhstan nonetheless would be ready, if the need arose, to provide friendly services as a place for negotiations and meetings on all levels,” Tokayev said in response to Zelensky’s statements, Kazakhstan’s Tengri news reported.
Tokayev’s discussions with Zelensky, per the official Akorda readout, focused on economic and humanitarian cooperation. Zelensky “shared his view” on the situation in Ukraine, and Tokayev told the Ukrainian leader that “diplomatic work must continue to search for paths toward an end to the conflict,” according to the Kazakh readout.
The Ukrainian side went further in its account of the meeting, saying in a readout that the pair discussed peace efforts “in depth” and that “Tokayev assured of Kazakhstan’s full support for Ukraine and stressed the importance of achieving peace as soon as possible.”
Nyshanbayev also believes the two leaders talked about Ukrainian drone attacks on Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure in Russia. The CPC route carries 80 percent of Kazakh oil to Europe. A Ukrainian drone strike on September 24 caused damage to CPC facilities at Novorossiysk, a key oil export terminal.
Since the start of the conflict, Tokayev has been perhaps the Central Asian leader most willing to pursue neutral policies that displease the Kremlin. For example, in June 2022, the Kazakh president asserted that Astana would not recognize the Moscow-backed separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Even so, Kazakhstan has come under suspicion in the past for serving as a back door for sanctions-busting imports by Russia.
Officials and observers in Uzbekistan have been a bit more candid about Tashkent’s stepped up engagement with Ukraine. Uzbekistan is always looking to maximize trade and investment opportunities, Saidov, the Uzbek foreign minister, stated on his Telegram channel.
Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states’ neutral stance on the war, like their abstentions or absences in UN votes, has been criticized as tilting toward Moscow, said Tolipov, the think-tank expert.
“To smooth out a little this slant … we probably needed to create this image or this message with the New York meeting,” he told Eurasianet.
Uzbekistan has distanced itself from Russia in other ways. In recent months, Tashkent has cracked down on Uzbek mercenaries who have signed up to fight for Russia in Ukraine. In the most recent prosecution, a man convicted of mercenary activity and another offense received a three-year prison sentence in mid-October. Meanwhile a crackdown on Central Asian labor migrants by Russian authorities and repeated incidents of violence and xenophobia against Uzbeks in Russia has emerged as a major point of tension in Uzbek-Russian relations.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is intent on seizing the diplomatic opportunity to improve ties with Central Asian states, underscored by the establishment of a new section devoted to the region within Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“[The war] should create stronger relations between Central Asia and Ukraine,” Nyshanbayev said. “There [were] historical relations ‘post-Soviet states’ style, but I think now is the time for just state-to-state sovereign relations between Ukraine and other countries with a new vision.”
By Alexander Thompson via Eurasianet.org
Russia's Fuel Crisis Spills into Central Asia
- Russia is experiencing fuel shortages and price increases due to Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries, leading to export restrictions on gasoline and diesel.
- Central Asian countries, particularly Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, are heavily impacted by these restrictions, facing higher prices and supply delays due to their reliance on Russian energy.
- In response to the disruptions, Uzbekistan is diversifying its fuel suppliers, while Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, with their significant energy reserves, remain largely self-sufficient or insulated from the immediate effects, with plans to increase their own exports.
Russia is grappling with fuel shortages and price hikes after a string of Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries.
To protect supplies in Russia, where long lines at gas stations have been reported in some regions, Moscow has banned or restricted the export of gasoline and diesel.
The move has triggered fuel shortages and price rises in some of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, which are heavily reliant on Russian energy.
Tajikistan Among Hardest Hit
Tajikistan, which imports almost all its fuel -- mostly from Russia, has been among the hardest hit.
A strategic partner and close ally of Moscow, Tajikistan still receives Russian fuel under bilateral import agreements.
But prices in Central Asia’s poorest country have increased sharply since Russia first imposed restrictions on energy exports during the summer. A liter of regular gasoline in Tajikistan currently costs up to $1.30, the highest in the region.
Uncertainty over Russia’s exports has forced Tajikistan to diversify its energy consumption model. Many taxis and public transportation vehicles in Dushanbe have switched to liquefied natural gas or electric power, moving away from gasoline.
Still, Dushanbe says its annual gasoline imports from Russia by the end of the year will reach 500,000 tons, a significant rise from 451,000 tons in 2024.
Kyrgyzstan Is Vulnerable
Kyrgyzstan imports more than 90 percent of the gasoline and diesel it consumes from Russia.
As a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union, Kyrgyzstan has been shielded from Russia’s export ban.
Even so, Kyrgyzstan has faced price hikes, supply delays, and temporary fuel shortages since the summer.
Experts say Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable because of its almost complete dependence on Russian imports.
“There are few real alternatives to Russian supplies in the short term,” economist Nurgul Akimova told RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service. “All these alternatives will require significant investment in infrastructure and will be more expensive than current Russian supplies.”
Uzbekistan Turns To Other Suppliers
Uzbekistan still imports Russian gasoline and diesel as part of government-brokered contracts with Russian companies.
But wary of its overreliance on Russia, Central Asia’s most populous country has increased its fuel imports from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan -- Central Asia’s two largest exporters.
Uzbekistan has large oil reserves but lacks the infrastructure to boost production. In 2024, its output was only around 63,000 barrels per day.
Tashkent is planning to boost its oil production by upgrading its aging energy infrastructure and attracting foreign investment.
Kazakhstan Largely Self-Sufficient
Unlike many of its neighbors, Kazakhstan is mostly self-sufficient in energy. The country has large energy reserves and possesses the technology to refine its oil.
Kazakhstan annually produces about 14 million tons of petroleum products -- the most in Central Asia -- and imports another 1.2 million tons from Russia every year.
But the country has still been affected by disruptions in Russia’s refining network.
In May, Astana imposed a six-month ban on exports of petroleum products and cracked down on cross-border fuel smuggling.
The moves were aimed at preventing shortages in Kazakhstan. The restrictions are due to expire in November.
The Kazakh government has said it plans to boost fuel exports to other Central Asian countries as well as China and India by 2040.
Turkmenistan Remains Largely Insulated
Turkmenistan’s vast oil and gas reserves, as well as the government’s strict control over production, have kept the country’s domestic market relatively stable.
Subsidized domestic prices mean Turkmen consumers have been largely protected from external disruptions.
“Turkmenistan is the only country in the region that has a surplus of all types of energy resources,” economist Marat Musuraliev told the Kyrgyz Service.
On October 3, the country said it had exceeded its gasoline and diesel production targets during the first nine months of 2025, a claim that RFE/RL could not independently verify.
Turkmenistan produces around 275,000 barrels per day of crude oil and liquid fuels.
Like neighboring Kazakhstan, the country has benefited from the shifting energy landscape -- exporting more petroleum products to markets in the region.
Media reports suggest that Ashgabat is increasing exports to neighboring Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.
By RFE/RL
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