It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Stunning close-up reveals secrets of Milky Way's neighbour
A stunning image captured by researchers at The Australian National University (ANU) and Australia's national science agency, CSIRO, shows one of the Milky Way's closest neighbors in new detail.
Lead author of the study, Dr. Nickolas Pingel, says it is the clearest ever picture of hydrogen emitted from the Small Magellanic Cloud.
"The clarity of this image is unprecedented," he said.
"We're able to see all of the small-scale structures for the first time. It's an important step in understanding the role hydrogen plays in the evolution of galaxies.
"For example, you can see holes within the gas. This shows us that hydrogen interacts with supernovae."
This study focused on the Small Magellanic Cloud—the nearest satellite galaxy of the Milky Way.
The team used the CSIRO's ASKAP radio telescope and high-tech software to capture and process 100 hours of data.
Now they hope to take the project a step further.
"This specific image was part of a pilot survey," Dr. Pingel said.
More information:N. M. Pingel et al, GASKAP-HI Pilot Survey Science I: ASKAP Zoom Observations of HI Emission in the Small Magellanic Cloud. arXiv:2111.05339v2 [astro-ph.GA],arxiv.org/abs/2111.05339
Those who plan on watching the second season of Netflix’s The Witcher can look forward to plenty of epic monster battles, character development, and Henry Cavill staring broodingly into the middle distance. But season 2 also reveals a lot about the broader world that The Witcher takes place in — or more accurately, the many worlds.
Specifically, this darker and more serious chapter in the epic fantasy saga zooms in on a seminal event in the Witcher lore known as the conjunction of the spheres. During the conjunction, which took place approximately 1,500 years before the events of the show, a bunch of different spheres of reality collided with one another, causing elves, dwarves, humans, and monsters to all get mixed up together on the same continent, much to their mutual discontent.
While this cosmic collision is pure fantasy, there is a potentially scientific idea at its core: some physicists have proposed that our universe may really be just one in a much grander multiverse of realities. If that’s true, it may even be possible for different universes to interact to some extent. These ideas are wildly controversial, with one camp of physicists arguing that the multiverse is more a matter of philosophy or religion than a fruitful terrain for scientific inquiry. Others say that since we can’t rule out the existence of a multiverse, there’s no harm in speculating about its nature.
With season 2 of The Witcher dropping on Netflix today, it felt like an apt time for some rampant speculation. To keep things as scientifically grounded as possible, The Verge chatted with University of California, San Diegocosmologist Brian Keating about some of the most mind-bending multiverse ideas physicists have proposed, where pop culture stretches these ideas beyond recognition, and the cosmic horizons we may never see past.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
The Witcher is not alone in popularizing the idea of the multiverse. It’s a big theme in the Marvel cinematic universe now, it’s in Star Trek. Some physicists would say the multiverse is nothing but science fiction. But could you tell us a bit about why others think it might really exist?
Yeah. So the multiverse is kind of a natural extrapolation of what we call the Copernican principle, which is that where we are and who we are and what we are shouldn’t be significant or aberrant. It should be kind of representative of the properties throughout all of reality. And just as there’s many planets, there are many stars, there are many galaxies, and there are many clusters of galaxies, so, too, the logic would have one believe there is no reason to suspect that there should be only one universe. In fact, one of the foremost proponents of the multiverse paradigm, Andrei Linde, who’s a professor at Stanford, claims that we shouldn’t be biased in favor of a universe. That we should, in fact, start from this [idea] that there probably is a multiverse. And the notion has been extended by other people to really encompass all the different types of possibilities for the existence of more than one universe: A universe that is characterized by laws of physics, constants of nature, intelligent or conscious beings, and so forth.
The multiverse comes as directly as a consequence of two very different branches of physics. One is cosmology, in particular what’s called inflation, the theory of the ultra-high energy origin of the expansion of space and time that would later become our observable universe. And also from string theory, which predicts sort of a landscape of possible values for different fundamental constants and forces. So these two different fields, which aren’t really associated with one another, both imply that there is the possibility for a multiverse. And as yet, there is a vast disagreement as to whether or not the multiverse actually is part of physics, or if it’s pure philosophy. And if it’s part of physics, how could one go about testing it or even falsifying its existence?
So to be clear, we have no direct evidence for the existence of a multiverse.
So the question is whether or not it’s even in principle possible to provide evidence that supports a multiverse. And if such evidence can’t be found, is it possible to rule out the existence of the multiverse? Because you might be living in a multiverse, but then you might not be able to detect that you’re living in a multiverse the same way that bacteria in a petri dish can’t detect that they live inside of a laboratory inside of a building inside of a planet. It’s too remote from the sphere of reality that they have access to.
Now, there are people who propose there are ways to measure the possibility that we are in a multiverse. The one particular signature would be looking for an impact, or a collision with another universe, that would produce an observational pattern in the oldest light in the universe called the cosmic microwave background radiation, which is what I study. And that theory, or conjecture, is pretty wildly contested. It’s not at all clear if you could categorically detect and therefore motivate the existence of the multiverse.
But there’s no doubt in any physicists’ minds that there are regions of our universe which are unobservable to us. And in that sense, you know, we already believe in a sort of multiverse. But then, extending and adding new features onto that multiverse, from inflation or from string theory, that’s where things get very controversial.
As I said a moment ago, we’ve seen a lot of depictions of the idea of the multiverse in pop culture. I think what makes The Witcher stand out a little bit is it’s not just positing there are all these different universes out there in their own separate bubbles, but that universes have collided with each other. There’s a historical, cataclysmic collision that sort of sets the stage for the events of the series. In the context of a multiverse, do physicists have any ideas as to whether, or how, different universes might interact?
First of all, physicists aren’t in agreement that the multiverse is a serious scientific paradigm worthy of discussion. A lot of people believe it’s not. On the other hand, if you do take it seriously, then you can ask questions about it. But then it’s not clear whether or not there’s any evidence, or set of evidence, that could prove it wrong. Because you could say, well, we thought this was evidence for the multiverse. But actually, in the multiverse, since anything is possible to happen, you can get any range of predictions that you want. And so it’s kind of unsatisfying. It’s like eating cosmic Wonder Bread.
In the context where these universes collide, it could be just as light travels at a finite speed, the Sun could disappear right now, and we wouldn’t see it for eight minutes. So it’s not possible to say something is ruled out just by not seeing it.
So there could be a multiverse. It could be one light-year away from us, in a certain sense, in which case next year we’ll see it. It could be 10^50 light-years away from us, in which case we’ll never see it. So it could turn out, yes, tomorrow we impact a universe that’s one light-year away from us. But the thing I would gently push back on is that the notion of a collision nucleating some vast explosion is not at all clear.
For example, we know for sure we will eventually collide with the Andromeda galaxy, which is our nearest neighbor galaxy. It’s almost like a twin sister of ours, and it has almost the same number of stars, hundreds of billions of stars. It’s even more massive than ours, and it’s one of the few galaxies we’re moving towards rather than expanding away from, according to Hubble. That galaxy will someday crash into our galaxy, but it’s not like every single point will collide and each star will hit another star. In fact, they’ll mostly pass right through each other. So if a galaxy, which is billions of times more dense than the universe on average, can pass right through another galaxy, all the more so a universe could pass through another universe in a certain sense.
So I think it’s artistic license to suggest that that could nucleate some fireworks. But I admit it’s pretty cute.
Could there be any sorts of interactions between different universes?
Yeah, in fact, one of the ways you might see the impact of a universe adjacent to ours is that it might have a gravitational force that deflects the light traveling in our universe. But all of this would be taking place at the boundary of what we can see just today. In other words, it wouldn’t be happening to us. It would be happening 45 billion light-years away from us and we would just be seeing it now [Editor’s note: 45 billion light years is the approximate radius of the observable universe]. Unless you’re talking about some interdimensional wormhole between different universes, and that’s incredibly speculative.
And some of the problems with these physical phenomena when applied to science fiction, like wormholes and other things, is that they’re barely at the level of speculation. They’re completely removed from testability in laboratory settings. They’re mathematical possibilities. But as I always say, mathematics allows the possibility for infinity. You know, just divide one by zero. But there is nothing that we know about in the universe that’s infinite. Nothing that has infinite temperature, density, pressure, energy, etc. So just because something is mathematically possible doesn’t mean it has any physical relevance. So I don’t want to be a downer. But the reality is, yes, it is possible to witness the effects of another universe interacting with ours. But it would be occurring not here, but a very, very distant there.
So it sounds like a physically plausible story about the multiverse would not have a lot of cool stuff to look at.
Well, yeah, it’s like saying, you know, a black hole or a wormhole as is possible. Of course, we measure black holes, but we don’t measure any near us, right? There’s not one that we can kind of play with and jump into and then pop out, you know, in the Andromeda galaxy, even, let alone in another universe.
And by the way, if the laws of physics change from universe to universe, it’s not at all clear that the laws of mathematics, or the laws of logic, would be forbidden from changing. In other words, you get into a wormhole in our universe. You pop out in another universe. Well, the laws of wormholes are based on the laws of black holes, which are the consequence of general relativity, which is a consequence of partial differential equations, which is a consequence of calculus, which is a consequence of real numbers. And who knows if there’s such a thing as real numbers in another universe? Just as the old joke goes, an old fish swims by two young fish and says to them, “How’s the water?” And they say, “What’s water?” They have no concept of it. It’s so alien to their existence that they can’t even contemplate it. And there’s no reason to be chauvinistic, to think it would be like our universe.
I feel like we see that idea represented at least a little bit allegorically in science fiction — and this true in The Witcher as well — in how when beings move from universe to universe, they often can’t survive in the other universe for an extended period of time because it’s fundamentally so different.
In my first book Losing the Nobel Prize, I made this kind of analogy which I called the petriverse. So imagine there’s some bacterium and it’s in a petri dish and it starts making a colony. That bacterium, if it was very smart, could realize that there’s a possibility for another colony really far away from it to exist because it has the agar gel and it has gravity and sunlight and whatever. It could deduce that there is a possibility for another universe in the petriverse, and actually some of these other colonies when they do form, even though they are only a couple of centimeters away, they produce toxins that prevent other bacteria from invading their space. So it’s like, a barrier that makes it inhospitable and hostile to the existence of hopping between universes, just like what you described.
What sorts of advances in physics could we make in the coming decades that might shed light on this question of whether the multiverse is real?
I think the field that I’m studying, which is the cosmic microwave background, the key observable, and what we’re trying to discover, is unequivocal evidence that inflation took place. And if inflation took place, that would come concomitantly with the multiverse in most physicists’ anticipation. They go as a direct consequence. If you discover these waves of gravity embedded in the cosmic microwave background, then you would get a very strong piece of evidence that would seem to mandate the multiverse exists. [Editor’s note: Keating later clarified that this would be ‘perhaps the strongest circumstantial evidence possible’ for a multiverse.] On the other hand, it may be that inflation took place, but it’s too weak to produce observable gravitational waves, in which case you might need to wait till a future version of the LIGO [the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory] experiment in space called LISA. And that could potentially take us back and show us evidence of the fundamental origination from, perhaps, the surrounding multiverse.
And I should point out there’s other ways that multiverses [could exist]. There’s a quantum mechanical version of the multiverse called the “many worlds interpretation.” And that’s that at every possible moment of time, every possible choice, every possible observable, is instantiated. But we only observe one particular outcome for each observation because we’re sort of coherently oscillating with those quantum mechanical wave functions, and therefore we can observe them. Those are kind of parallel universes going on right now. So if I turn my head to the right or the left, there’s a whole universe where Brian turned his head to the left. So that’s a version of the multiverse. There’s also a version of the multiverse where the universe is cyclical in a certain sense; it’s coming into existence, it’s coming out of existence in a collapse. It’s reemerging, and it’s kind of growing, and then that universe collapses. So that’s kind of a temporal multiverse. And those kinds of models have been around since antiquity.
I would say, it’s hard to find a model of cosmology that doesn’t have some version of a multiverse in it, whether that’s temporal or spatial, or spatial and temporal, or quantum mechanical. So there are hopes that one could get some confidence from measuring aspects of quantum mechanics. And then there’s the cosmic and gravitational wave experiments that I do. And then, perhaps if string theory were to make much more concrete predictions. So I think there’s a lot more theoretical advances that need to be made, a lot more experimental [advances]. But fundamentally, we may never be able to prove it wrong. In other words, you ruled out 10^499 different universes but you didn’t rule out this one. And these observations therefore become what’s called unfalsifiable. In which case you can’t prove that inflation’s wrong, but you also can’t prove that the alternatives are right. And in that case, all hope would be lost. You can’t prove it using an experiment or evidence, you can only prove it on Twitter or something.
Sounds like the multiverse is going to continue to fuel physics beef for many years to come.
Yes. I always say, inflation for economists means one thing. But for us, the multiverse ensures full employment for cosmologists for years to come. And for science fiction.
This holiday season, reduce your environmental impact with 'Buy Nothing'
In the Gospel reading from St. Luke for the third Sunday of Advent, a crowd of people asks John the Baptist for guidance on how they should act. He replies, "Anyone who has two tunics must share with the one who has none, and anyone with something to eat must do the same." Here John the Baptist urges the people to distribute their wares — to give — to others.
We approach the Advent season with a clear call to give in mind. Yet we may find our desires to give to our friends and loved ones, and to our community, complicated this holiday season.
As we learn more and more about the degradation of the planet, we may feel conflicted by the hyper-consumptive systems in which we participate. As we sift through our belongings, we may wonder how to best give of them without causing environmental harm.
Above all, we may want to address the needs of our community but feel unsure how to connect with our neighbors given the precarity of the pandemic.
How can we approach the call to give, in the face of mounting environmental destruction and as we approach a third year of the coronavirus pandemic?
A Facebook group, of all things, can offer direction here.
When I first moved to Philadelphia in 2019, I became acquainted with the Buy Nothing Project. Founded in 2013, the project's mission is to "build community by connecting people through hyperlocal gifting, and reducing our impact on the environment." The Buy Nothing Project is organized around the ethos of a "gift economy." Everything shared on Buy Nothing — an item, a service or advice — is given freely, without charge.
Participating in Buy Nothing is simple. Neighbors can search Facebook for an active community nearby, request to join and, upon acceptance, begin to give, ask and receive. The project also recently released an app that can be downloaded to any mobile device.
I joined my first Buy Nothing group in the fall of 2019, but my participation was limited. When I moved into a new apartment during the summer of 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world, I spent the first few weeks of August alone, struggling to adjust to a new neighborhood.
I felt compelled to seek out another Buy Nothing group, in part because I was eager to connect with people in my community and in part because I needed a watering can.
I shyly posted my request, and in the meantime, sifted through my moving boxes to see what I could offer my new community. I settled on a few drinking mugs; I posted photos to the page and waited. To my delight, comments began pouring in after an hour or so. I packaged each mug like a gift, wrote a quick note to each neighbor and left them on my porch.
Though much of my Buy Nothing interactions continue with minimal physical contact, to limit the risk of COVID-19 transmission, I have borne witness, albeit virtually, to the generous creativity of my neighbors.
I've watched neighbors leap into action to collect supplies to keep the local food pantry stocked with food. When Afghan refugees began arriving in Philadelphia, neighbors collected suitcases and baby carriages so incoming families could manage their journeys more easily. The enthusiasm, generosity and compassion of these communities are a sight to behold.
Not every "ask" is striking, nor every gift groundbreaking. But these exchanges don't need to be extravagant to reach the heart of the Gospel call to give. If a neighbor asks for a garnish to a recipe, three or four neighbors will respond. When I changed my diet to accommodate allergies, I was glad to see my innocuous pantry items — canned beans and quinoa — delight my neighbors. No matter how mundane, the gift is delighted in, and neighbors eagerly share their satisfaction with "posts of gratitude."
Most moving was my recent foray into holiday cooking. I spent this past Thanksgiving alone, and while endeavoring to cook a turkey breast for the first time, found myself intimidated by the task. After sharing my fears, I had several neighbors respond to share their cooking expertise.
One neighbor even emailed me a family recipe, including tricks on caring for the bird, and we exchanged photos throughout the day as we cooked, while I plated my sides in dishes given to me by other community members. Although my kitchen was empty, my meal was filled with the compassion of others, and my spirit filled to the brim with gratitude.
The lessons the Buy Nothing group offers to us are manifold. The group's commitment to the gift economy also gives way to a "green" ethic. My time in the group has transformed my view of what is "disposable." For instance, members share moving boxes, garden clippings and other items that I previously discounted as rubbish. Now when I receive an online order in a cardboard box, I post the box to the group instead of discarding it.
These exchanges don't need to be extravagant
to reach the heart of the Gospel call to give.
Buy Nothing also encourages a "slow" disposition toward consumption. Membership does not guarantee being gifted — in fact, popular items often receive multiple expressions of interest from neighbors, and the gifter must choose one recipient. Gifters are encouraged to let their items "simmer," so more community members can have a chance to receive them.
This encouragement, though not required, eschews a "first-come, first-served" attitude. It also helps diffuse hyper-consumptive habits and lingering senses of entitlement.
Above all, this practice aids in discerning wants from needs. Members are encouraged to share the reasons behind their interest in an item, who it is for and other details. Several times, upon further reflection, I have rescinded my interest in a gift, especially after reading the comments. This has helped me resist impulsivity — something that I have previously struggled with in my purchasing habits.
Our culture is one of self-storage units and endless clutter. When we find ourselves overwhelmed by the mountains of "stuff" we have accumulated, we may be tempted to offload our belongings to donation sites. Sadly, much of what we donate ends up in domestic landfills, or in other countries, clogging their environments with unwanted excesses.
Buy Nothing is a more personal, less environmentally taxing alternative. This is not to say that these groups are a dumping ground for our impulse buys. Rather, they are a place for repurposing items and directly addressing need in communities.
If this holiday season finds you amidst a sea of clutter in your home, consider joining a Buy Nothing group, to draw nearer to your neighbors, aid (and be aided by) your community and pursue practices that honor neighbor and planet.
To find a group near you, those interested can search for a nearby group on Facebook, or download the Buy Nothing app. No matter where you live, you likely are within the boundary of a Buy Nothing group. If not, you might consider starting your own. Communities that lack a Buy Nothing group can easily start one by following instructions on the Buy Nothing website.
Céire Kealty is a doctoral student in the Department of Theology and Religious Studies at Villanova University, studying Christian ethics and spirituality. She writes about the global garment industry, workers' rights, and clothing in religious and "secular" spaces.
Turkish Business Group Says Erdogan’s Economic Model Is Failing Onur Ant Sat., December 18, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- A major Turkish business association called on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government to abandon its current economic policies, citing recent market turmoil as proof that the experimental model is bound to fail.
A series of interest rate cuts by Turkey’s central bank have weakened the lira and spurred a strong demand for hard currency, destabilizing the entire economy, the group, Tusiad, said in a statement on Saturday.
“The need for a return to the generally accepted rules of the science of economy is obvious,” Tusiad said in a statement that didn’t mention Erdogan.
The tone of the comments highlight how Tusiad -- once the umbrella organization for Turkey’s most powerful businesses -- is walking a tightrope to get Erdogan’s attention without making itself a political target.
Tusiad members have lost much of their influence under Erdogan, who presided over the emergence of a new group of wealthy businessmen that supports his cause and the ruling party. Turkey Stock Rout Triggers Circuit Breakers Twice in an Hour
The reference in the statement to orthodox policy-making is a veiled criticism of Erdogan’s advocacy for rate cuts that pushed Turkey into a currency crisis. The lira has lost more than half of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, with declines gaining pace after Erdogan unveiled an economic model that relies on lower borrowing costs and a cheaper currency.
In the eyes of the president, Turkey can free itself from reliance on foreign capital flows by abandoning old policies that prioritized higher interest rates and strong inflows. At the heart of his ideas is a belief that lower interest rates will also curb consumer price growth -- the exact opposite of the consensus view among the world’s central bankers.
Rising Prices Defy Data and Stoke Anger in Turkey
The first few weeks of Erdogan’s most recent economic experiment have been sobering. With the currency sinking to fresh record lows every day, the yield on Turkey’s 10-year debt rose to a record Friday, according to data going back to 2010.
Consumer prices are rising so fast that supermarket employees can barely keep up with changing labels, while working class Turks and pensioners form long lines in front of municipality stalls to get subsidized bread.
Erdogan has said temporary volatility is the price to pay for Turkey’s economic “war of independence” against speculators and “barons” of international finance. The president must win back some of the support lost since the pandemic in order to win presidential elections scheduled for 2023.
Turkey’s Erdogan is losing support where he can least afford it
BY SELCAN HACAOGLU• BLOOMBERG NEWS • DECEMBER 18, 2021 Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a briefing in Rome,
Italy, on Oct. 31, 2021. (Antonio Masiello/Getty Images/TNS)
(Tribune News Service) — The anger sweeping along highways linking the humble hometown of Turkey’s leader and his plush lodgings in Ankara’s presidential palace is flashing a code red warning for Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Tea growers, fishermen, small retailers, café staff and gas-station attendants — some of the typically low-paid, laboring Turks who have formed the backbone of Erdogan’s support over his two decades atop Turkish politics — are giving up on the ruling party as the cost of living surges.
A 500-mile journey this month along Turkey’s Black Sea coast and into its conservative hinterland showed how many are losing faith. Opposition parties control the major cities, meaning Erdogan and his AK Party must hold traditional bastions to stay in power at 2023 elections.
They have 18 months to win round disillusioned and wavering voters like Sahap Kardesler.
Emerging from a butcher shop in Iyidere, the 66-year-old pensioner had used credit to buy enough meat for several months. “I might not be able to afford it later,” he explained. “It’s not even clear what the price will be in an hour.”
His popularity waning amid pandemic-induced hardship, Erdogan has forced Turkey into a high-risk economic experiment. He’s leaned on the central bank to slash the cost of borrowing in search of the sunlit uplands of greater investment and better jobs, and lashed out at the power wielded by global finance.
It’s his version of the path to export-driven riches followed in the past by some nations in Asia. Yet for now, the president’s divergence from orthodox economics is leaving people poorer — wiping more than 50% from the value of the lira currency this year and sending prices spiraling.
Serving tea at his small Iyidere café, Selahattin Mete draws on his business acumen to accuse the president of being naive.
“You can’t say ‘I don’t accept interest rates’ when your economy is deeply connected to the rest of the world,” he said. Still loyal to Erdogan, Mete, 51, has had enough of the president’s Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party, or AKP.
“They’re looking down at us,” he said. “At the beginning, they were one of us, ordinary people. Now they’re living in luxury.”
That’s a complaint you hear regularly in what are supposed to be AKP strongholds.
Iyidere is in Rize province, home to Erdogan’s father until he left to work in Istanbul and where the president spent some of his childhood.
That personal connection means many here refrain from directly criticizing Erdogan, who first as prime minister and, since 2018, as president with broad executive powers won support building highways, hospitals and ports — including one under construction near Iyidere — to lift up down-at-heel provinces. More than 800 pairs of presidential scissors used to cut opening-ceremony ribbons are on show in Ankara.
But members of the president’s party stand accused of cronyism and extravagant lifestyles that have left them out of touch.
In one recent example, Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati drew criticism for comments on the economy that appeared insensitive.
“You have a salary. What would you lose at most? You will be crushed under inflation,” said Nebati, whose family own a chain of textile stores. “But I will lose all of my assets if this doesn’t work out. We have a thousand employees.”
Turkey’s central bank intervened in currency markets again on Friday to tame the lira’s fall after it surged past 17 to a dollar.
Erdogan has blamed rampant inflation, which reached an annual 21.3% in November, on global price spikes as well as local hoarders, and has sought to assure voters his government won’t abandon them. “While implementing our new economic program, we stand by all segments with support packages that will be needed,” he told AKP lawmakers. On Thursday, he announced a 50% increase in the minimum wage for next year.
Not everyone is listening. A November survey by Metropoll showed support for the AKP at 26% excluding undecided voters, its lowest in the party’s 20-year history. That drops to 21% among the section of society with the lowest incomes.
NECK-AND-NECK
The president’s job approval is hovering around 39%, near record lows last seen in 2015, according to Metropoll. The opposition Nation Alliance was backed by 39.5% of respondents, it said, a sliver behind the Erdogan-led Republican Alliance on 40%. The leading pro-Kurdish party, HDP, is estimated to have more than 11% of the vote and could potentially back the opposition’s presidential candidate.
“The biggest concern among voters is clearly inflation,” Nomura Holdings Inc. said. “The worrying thing from the palace’s point of view is that it has seen a sharp drop in support” among low-income voters.
The AKP won more than 58% of ballots in the provincial council vote in Rize in 2019, and 67% in the last parliamentary election in 2018. But that solidarity is being tested.
“There’s no life for us amid back to back price hikes,” said 64-year-old pensioner Yildirim Mete as he enjoyed a stroll in the sun. Incomes from tea cultivation, the lifeblood of the local economy, had fallen, he said.
In May, Erdogan revived the idea for a multi-billion dollar canal, an alternative to Istanbul’s Bosporus strait, that would link the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara and create thousands of jobs. So far, it remains just a proposal as Turkey seeks ways to finance construction.
Permanent work is top of Fatma Nur’s list of goals, yet the 21-year-old student of social work was waiting tables at a nearly empty fish restaurant in the coastal town of Arsin.
“I voted for the AK Party before but will certainly not support it in the next elections,” Nur said, admitting she was unsure who to back.
Her hair covered with a head scarf, she accused the government of failing to protect Turkish women after activists reported an increase in deadly violence. In March, Turkey withdrew from an international treaty that aims to protect women, arguing it clashed with the country’s religious values.
Nur had just two tables to tend and further west in Carsibasi, fisherman Osman Akkan, 43, had seen his income plummet as Turks cut back.
“I was selling 80-100 kilograms of fish a day, now I can barely sell half of that,” he said. “There’s less demand even for cheap horse mackerel.”
Not everyone was lamenting their luck. A few meters away from Akkan’s fish stall, 44-year-old driver Cengiz Kayas was praying on a green rug next to his newly purchased truck.
“Yes, there’s inflation but there’s demand for my services so I am able to reflect any price increases in my fees,” said Kayas. “If we join our forces, we shall overcome these economic difficulties. I don’t see anyone other than Erdogan” as leader.
Still, the mood along the route to Ankara was downbeat. In Ordu, baker Oner Tekin had fired two workers and was considering closing his shop as fast-rising flour prices ate into his income. And in Samsun, the largest city on Turkey’s Black Sea coast, Osman Haliloglu had spent heavily to stockpile enough tires for next year, hoping he’ll be able to sell them at competitive prices.
Gas-station worker Okan Orhan said frustration over the cost of fuel was increasingly evident.
“Many drivers who come here are cursing at frequent price increases in gasoline and diesel,” said Orhan, 27, with mutterings such as “may Allah break my hands if I vote for the AK Party ever again” commonplace.
Discount retailers have more customers than ever but even their prices are beyond women like Ayse Denizci, who was scouting for bargains in Delice, near Ankara. She left empty handed.
Denizci and her family typically vote for the AKP. “But we probably won’t support it anymore,” she said. “The knife has cut to the bone. We need change.”
Could Turkey’s currency crisis lead to worse problems for Erdoğan? - analysis
A weakened currency and constant crisis as home could be to the benefit of Turkey’s ruling party.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN Published: DECEMBER 18, 2021 Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a news conference
in Istanbul, Turkey October 16, 2021 (photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
Turkey’s ruling AKP party has struggled to stabilize the lira as Turkey’s currency continues to weaken.
This has been a disaster for Turkey and especially its middle class. However, it is unclear whether the ruling party is quietly applauding the ruin it is causing, by weakening the middle class it can exert more control over the economy and concentrate power.
The ruling party in Turkey, led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, came to power almost two decades ago, partly on an economic platform. Since then, it has developed Turkey but in the last several years as the AKP concentrated power, jailed journalists and opposition politicians and became more nationalist, extremist and religious, the currency has been eroded.
Now, the Turkish lira is almost at 17 to the US dollar.
This is an incredible disaster and ostensibly the government is working to deal with the problem. Turkey wants to put in place relief measures for banks. It wants to lower interest rates and raise the minimum wage. Monetary policy appears to be chaotic in Ankara. The Turkish central bank has intervened.
However, there are questions about how much Turkey’s leadership really cares.
A US one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021.
They have destroyed almost all independent media in Turkey so there is very little local critique allowed of the regime in Turkey. Turkey uses its English language media as propaganda to slam the West and ignore its problems at home. For instance, Anadolu, TRT, Daily Sabah and other media do not critique the ruling party. That means Turkey’s ruling party has a stranglehold on the country.
Recently, Ankara appeared more concerned with changing the name of the country to “Turkiye” more than it cares about the currency slide which is bankrupting people. For instance, TRT four days ago had a whole article about how Turkey is now to be called “Turkiye.” One might think that the country’s leaders would be more concerned with an unprecedented financial crisis.
However, Ankara might be following the lead of other authoritarian regimes, such as Iran, Venezuela, Russia and China. These countries know that economic crises can be used to consolidate power in the leadership.
Evergrande, a major property developer defaulted on $1.2 billion foreign ponds, according to CBS. But that was greeted with a shrug in China. China has also cracked down on tech companies listing overseas in foreign stock markets.
Looking at Turkey’s recent economic problems then it might be good to look at who Erdoğan’s friends are. Turkey’s ruling party is close to Venezuela’s authoritarian regime. Venezuela has destroyed its economy in the last decades as well. It has burned through cash as currency reserves declined this year. It also sold 73 tonnes of gold to foreign countries in 2019, including Turkey.
Iran’s regime, especially the IRGC, has also grown through using US sanctions to its benefit. Hezbollah in Lebanon has done the same.
Turkey’s ruling party blends religious extremism with its own brand of authoritarianism. It poses as modern and wanting to work with the West and Europe, but at its heart, it is about controlling Turkey completely and transforming society.
A weakened currency and constant crisis as home could be to its benefit. The way the leadership has mishandled the currency slide could be incompetence but it could also be stage-managed or using a crisis to the benefit of the regime.
Africa: Electric Vehicles Alone Won't Save Us, We Need Walkable Cities, Experts Say
Cape Town — Electric vehicles (EVs) appear to be the future of transportation but what role do they play in meeting global goals on climate change?
Across the world, more and more people are opting for electric vehicles and the industry is undeniably on the rise. However, as electric cars grow in popularity, concerns over their environmental impact arise.
One of the biggest challenges facing cities is their carbon emissions from transportation. A report from the Institute for Transportation Development Policy (ITDP) and the University of California, Davis (UC Davis) says that electric cars on their own won't save us - the only way we can keep under 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming is a combination of electrification and increased urban density. Researchers say electric vehicles need to be combined with an effort to make cities bikeable and walkable to curb climate change.
In its report, The Compact City Scenario -Electrified states that the electrification of the vehicle fleet alone will not be enough to achieve the objectives set. Heather Thompson, CEO of the Institute, which released the study said that "We need electrification, but we will not meet our 1.5°C target if we focus on electric vehicles alone. We need to also focus on the fundamental equation of driving less, even if in electric vehicles, which still require a lot of resources like clean electricity. We need high-density development that provides better access to employment, education, and services for families of all income levels without being dependent on cars. Walkable and cycling cities aren't just better for the economy and the environment - they're healthier and happier for everyone. We have the evidence, and we know what needs to be done: we need an integrated approach that includes both electrification and compact development. Cities must step up."
"We absolutely need to get fossil fuels out, but that will only take us so far," Thompson added. "We need to develop cities in compact ways, to make sure people don't need to get behind the wheel."
The world needs to wean itself off fossil fuels that are destroying the climate. EVs have a lower carbon footprint over their lifetime than cars or trucks that use internal combustion engines. However, some experts believe that greenhouse emissions during the manufacturing process and battery-charging have to be considered. For example, the batteries in electric vehicles are charged with power from the electric grid - which is often powered by fossil fuels. In addition, there is concern over how energy-intensive it is to build an EV or an EV battery compared to a traditional vehicle.
In many African cities, mini-busses and motorcycles are the primary modes of public transportation. So much of the air pollution is caused by vehicle exhaust which leads to chronic respiratory illnesses and premature death. As a result, increasing the use of electric vehicles is a welcome initiative to decarbonise transport and improve air quality in African cities. Several issues still need to be addressed by African countries before they can reap the benefits of the electric vehicle movement.
According to UN Environment Programme (UNEP), South Africa, Kenya, Mauritius, Seychelles, Rwanda, and North African countries are the early leaders in the EV market. UNEP, through its Global e-Mobility programme, has been providing assistance to African countries in developing the right policies to transition from fossil fuel to electric mobility. Due to Africa's chronic power shortages, smart grids fed by renewable energy can facilitate the transition, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and enable countries to meet their climate objectives.
The use of electric vehicles is a key part of shifting away from fossil fuels and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but more is needed within the manufacturing process to reduce the carbon footprint. The rising demand for minerals like cobalt, manganese, and lithium has led to a surge in deep-sea mining, which studies predict will have serious and irreversible effects on biodiversity.
Cities around the world have started to adopt a protagonist role in the battle against climate change. Many cities are already using renewable energy sources, cleaner production techniques, and regulations or incentives to limit industrial emissions. Cutting emissions will also reduce local pollution from industries and transport, thus improving urban air quality and the health of city dwellers.
These include developing compact and dense urban centres that require policies addressing land use, walking and bicycling public transit, and disincentivizing car use. In compact, mixed-use cities, people live within a short distance of their daily needs, meaning they can walk or cycle to them. These cities also make public transit more efficient by having more destinations (homes, jobs, and services) near stations and shorter distances between stations.
In Kenya, a startup company called Opibus is chartering an ambitious path to achieving a zero-emissions public transportation system. The company is on a mission to refit electric engines into diesel and petrol buses that have the capacity to travel over 250 kilometres a day on a single charge.
Chris Kost, Director, ITDP Africa says that "many African countries generate a large share of their electricity from renewables, including hydro and geothermal, making e-mobility an attractive option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. In this context, e-mobility also has an important benefit in enabling countries to avoid spending limited foreign exchange on fuel imports. There are several e-mobility initiatives across the continent. E-buses have been deployed in cities such as Alexandria, Cairo, Cape Town, and Kampala, among others. In Uganda, Kiira Motors has set up a local assembly facility to produce e-buses. In addition, there is a vibrant startup scene pursuing the electrification of motorcycle taxis (e.g., Ampersand, REM, Bodawerk) and three-wheelers."
However, even though electric vehicles are key to shifting the motor industry away from fossil fuels, years of unregulated industry practices have led to detrimental human rights and environmental impacts, which governments and industries are not doing enough to tackle.
Cobalt is a key component in batteries for electric cars, phones, and laptops, and DRC provides more than half of the global supply. But here's the problem, tens of thousands of children as young as six dig for the toxic substance in artisanal mines in the country's southeast, without protective clothing, Amnesty International says. The rights group documented serious human rights violations linked to the extraction of the minerals used in lithium-ion batteries, particularly in the DRC. A 2016 investigation found children and adults in southern DRC working in hand-dug cobalt mines facing serious health risks, neither protected by the government nor respected by companies that profit from their labour. Amnesty's research has linked these mines to the supply chains of many of the world's leading electronics brands and electric vehicle companies.
Finding effective solutions to the climate crisis is an absolute imperative, and electric cars have an important role to play in this. But without radical changes, the batteries which power green vehicles will continue to be tainted by human rights abuses," said Kumi Naidoo, Amnesty International's Secretary-General. "The massive global corporations that dominate the electric vehicle industry have the resources and expertise to create energy solutions that are truly clean and fair ... With demand for batteries soaring, now is the time for a drastic overhaul of our energy sources that prioritizes the protection of human rights and the environment."
In November 2021, world leaders met in Glasgow, for the COP26 climate talks, and a new global agreement - the Glasgow Climate Pact - was reached. It was agreed countries will meet next year to pledge further cuts to emissions of carbon dioxide - a greenhouse gas that is one of the causes climate change - where at least 197 countries will report their progress towards more ambitious targets at COP27, set to take place in Egypt. The agreement pledged to significantly increase financing to help poor countries cope with the effects of climate change and make the switch to clean energy.
Sudan: "Back to the Former Lies" - Sudan Reverts to Media Repression Post-Coup
When the military seized power on 25 October, one of the first casualties was Sudan's newfound freedom of expression.
On 17 November, journalist Ali Farsab, 31, headed to the Bahri area in north Khartoum to cover the enormous anti-coup demonstrations. There had been multiple nationwide protests against military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan since his power grab on 25 October, but this day proved to be the deadliest yet as 16 protesters were killed by security forces.
"The police fired live and rubber bullets and hurled sound bombs and tear gas grenades as if they were fighting a war and not a peaceful procession," says Farsab. His scalp was grazed by a bullet before soldiers beat him, fracturing his hand as his head bled. When his assailants saw protestors filming them, they carried Farsab to a side alley and continued to hit him.
"You are not worth anything to us or to the ruling authority," he recalls one of his attackers shouting. "Just one bullet and you're finished."
Farsab says the blows and insults only increased once the soldiers learnt he was a reporter for the independent newspaper -Al-Tayyar. He was held for three days, during which he was denied medical treatment, before his eventual release. The coup
Sudan has had a tumultuous few years. In April 2019, a huge popular uprising led to the removal of former dictator Omar al-Bashir after 30 years in power. In the aftermath, military leaders and representatives of the people negotiated a gradual transition towards full civilian leadership.
This fragile arrangement has been rocky and much maligned, but it was at least moving Sudan towards the agreed date for civilian leadership to take effect. That is, until General Burhan - perhaps fearing retribution for past war crimes or not wanting to hand over the vast wealth obtained by the military - launched the coup this October and arrested Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.
Once again, demonstrators immediately took to the streets in cities and towns across the country. After weeks of sustained protests, the military government on 21 November offered some concessions by releasing Hamdok from house arrest and reinstating him as Prime Minister. But key civil society groups rejected the agreement, and protests have continued against any deal that would involve the military. An attack on the media
Since 25 October, hope in a transition towards democracy has been dealt a serious blow. According to Farsab, one of the first casualties of the coup was Sudan's newfound freedom of expression.
Just before midnight on 24 October, the former information minister reported on Facebook that military forces had stormed the state broadcaster in Omdurman and arrested employees. First thing on the morning of 25 October, Burhan then issued a "presidential decree" to dismiss the General Director of the national news agency SUNA. Its website went down for almost a week, while its offices remained closed for the first time since the 1970s. According to Hassan Farouk, a member of the Sudanese Journalists Network, SUNA's staff were also summarily fired and replaced with former Bashir cadres.
"We almost had a professional news wire during the transitional period," says freelance journalist Mohamed Saleh. "Now we're back to the former lies."
Military authorities also disconnected the Internet. It was turned back on in late-November, but authorities continue to block social media platforms, meaning people have to use a Virtual Private Network (VPN) to access these apps and maintain private conversations.
Security forces were similarly quick to shutter radio stations, a popular and accessible source of information in Sudan. Yasser Abu Shamal, director-general of Hala Radio, told African Arguments that the military suspended his station in the early hours of 25 October along with the BBC and Monte Carlo. Authorities accused these three outlets of inciting hatred towards the military, a charge Abu Shamal denies.
This allegation of media bias was a sign of things to come. In a 26 October press conference, Burhan threatened "strong measures" against journalists who criticised the army without "documenting the facts".
The independent print media was not spared either. On 28 October, security forces stormed the building of El Demokrati ("The Democratic"), an independent Arabic daily. "The military broke in on the third day of the coup after keeping an eye on the building for two days," says Chief Editor Asmaa Mohamed. "They surrounded the empty office trying to arrest any journalist they found near our office."
Meanwhile, the Press and Publications Council, a government body, made repeated calls to the newspaper Al-Jareeda, condemning articles that criticised the military and warning its editors to avoid denouncing the coup.
In other instances, security forces kidnapped individual journalists. On 13 November, masked military intelligence abducted Shawgi Abdul Azim after he had given an interview to Al-Jazeera in which he was deemed to have been overly critical of the regime. Azim's kidnappers, he told African Arguments, forced him to sign a pledge not to criticise the military in the future.
Other journalists have faced similar attacks. Atif Mohamed, editor of El Sudani newspaper, was driving home when masked men blocked his car and attempted to abduct him. Mohamed narrowly managed to escape. "It felt like a scene in an action movie," he says. "Many other journalists were kidnapped from their cars and abducted the same way. It's a carefully engineered plan to silence any opposing voices and to keep journalists from reporting." A rejected compromise
On 21 November, the military re-instated Prime Minister Hamdok, saying he would have full authority to appoint his cabinet and insisting the civilian transition was back in effect. Local journalists, however, say repression of the press continues as before.
"There is no civil power still. The military-led sovereign council still has the authority to carry out all the executive decisions in the state," says Mohamed Abdul Aziz, editor of El Demokrati. "The impact of the coup on the democratic transition and press freedom remains the same despite this agreement with Hamdok. The fact that some outlets are still shut is proof of that."
Several reporters say they remain highly cautious and self-censor due to fears of retribution. Some said they only conduct interviews behind closed doors and believe their phones might be being tracked.
"Journalism has become a profession fraught with dangers, which makes its role and future very dark in these conditions," says Farsab. "I don't think journalism can move forward under the circumstances we are in now, because freedom is the essence of the press and the lung through which it breathes."
Journalists are not, however, giving up. They too have organised protests to demand press freedom, while banners with the slogan "Free press or no press" can be seen across Nile Street in Khartoum. In their latest demonstration on 8 December, reporters called for the re-opening of Hala Radio. That evening, authorities lifted the station's ban.
"What matters now is strengthening the cohesion and unity of the media community [so] we can push for a better future," says Nasreldin Abdel Qader, Chief Editor of newspaper Al-Qasas. "If not, it's as if we are clinging to a cloud."
In another celebrated act of resistance, Nazik Muhammed Youssef, a television presenter on the state broadcaster, refused to read out a false statement on air. She had been told to say only one person had died in a recent protest in Khartoum, but Youssef knew the true figure was much higher. "This really provoked me, so I refused to broadcast this statement on my morning programme," she says. "I felt the pain of the mothers who lost their sons and the need to uphold my profession - to tell the truth and refuse to falsify the facts."
Finally, journalists continue to use social media to disseminate facts. Several sources say that these platforms, which are harder for the military to control, have played an increasingly influential role in spreading information, news, and ideas in Sudan since 2019.
"Once the press and the public have tasted a little freedom as we did during the transitional period, it's impossible to go back," says Saleh.
Elzahraa Ibrahim is s a Sudanese author and multi-media journalist based in Khartoum. She focuses her reporting on environmental and water-related issues, reporting for specialised regional and international platforms. Khaled Fathi is a seasoned Sudanese journalist who has worked for several independent newspapers, most recently as the editor of "Al-Tayar" and a member of the Sudanese Journalist Network. Tom Rhodes is a veteran journalist with years of experience working in the East African region as a reporter and press freedom advocate.
Read the original of this report, including embedded links and illustrations, on the African Arguments site.
