A precarious thaw

Rafia Zakaria 

DAWN

Published April 17, 2024 Updated a day ago

THE last few years have been the warmest ever recorded in the Arctic Circle. This means that a large portion of the ice cap is melting, and with it permafrost — a layer of soil that has remained frozen for at least two years and often for centuries, even millennia.

Pakistan is nowhere near the Arctic Circle but the high number of glaciers in the north of the country have also been melting at an alarming rate. Here too, permafrost which contains organic matter that is thousands of years old is thawing. Scientists have likened the phenomenon to the melting of an ancient freezer which reveals contents that have not been seen for thousands of years since the Ice Age.

In Siberia, the thawing permafrost is unearthing (among other things) bones of an animal known as the woolly mammoth. The last woolly mammoth perished more than 4,000 years ago but the bones of this species are now being found in several parts of northern Siberia where large portions of permafrost are thawing.

For all the treasures that it contains, permafrost poses a threat to humankind and Earth’s climate. As it defrosts, its organic matter is consumed by soil microbes that begin to break it down. In the process, they produce large amounts of carbon, which are released into the atmosphere. In some parts of Siberia, this carbon release is in the form of methane. Methane is not only bad for the environment, its build-up can also cause explosions, which is what has happened in parts of Siberia, where enormous craters have been created as a result.

Already, new lakes created by thawing permafrost are producing tons of methane and carbon dioxide. According to some estimates, lakes created by glacial melt or thawing permafrost constitute some 30 per cent of these water bodies worldwide. This has implications not only for the natural environment, but also built surroundings, as infrastructure such as roads in villages in areas of permafrost are adversely affected. According to scientists, the rapid thaw over the past few years has been dramatic and is going to change the landscape in unimaginable ways as huge amounts of ice melt unearths layers of soil that froze thousands of years ago.


Scientists have likened permafrost thaw to the melting of an ancient freezer which reveals contents that have not been seen since the Ice Age.

In Siberia, a scientist named Sergey Zimov has come up with an unusual solution. Zimov predicted the unearthing of permafrost and the problems it would pose decades ago. Zimov, who lives in Siberia, says that one way to tackle the problem is to recreate the landscape as it existed prior to the last Ice Age. His hypothesis is that the transformation from tundra to grassland will change the ratio of energy emission and energy absorption, which is what is needed to tackle thawing permafrost.

To do this, an area named Pleistocene Park has been created to study the climatic effects on the ecosystem when the landscape is changed to a “northern subarctic steppe grassland ecosystem”. One of the things that is being done to enable this is to repopulate the area with large herbivores like deer and also predators that would have been part of the ecosystem.

At this point, an interesting and ethically complex question has begun to present itself. One of the largest herbivores that adapted to the cold climate was the woolly mammoth, which had thick fur that enabled its survival. The last woolly mammoth died some 4,000 years ago, because of a mix of climatic factors and overhunting by human beings. Is it time to bring back animals like the woolly mammoth?

Advances in cloning science have already been successful (remember Dolly the sheep who was cloned from DNA?). Genome science means that the genetic sequence of woolly mammoths has already been mapped, owing to the large amounts of fossils that are being uncovered from all the melting. One theory suggests that a cloned embryo of a woolly mammoth could be implanted inside a female Asian elephant, who could carry it to term. Scientists admit that the animal that would be produced would not exactly be a woolly mammoth, but a very close relative — something between an elephant and a woolly mammoth. They believe that a large herbivore could help change the ratio of carbon emission and absorption that would otherwise be likely to cause a climate catastrophe.

This idea of ‘resurrecting’ animals and plants that have gone extinct is called ‘de-extinction’. It directly raises the question of when and to what extent human beings should be interfering in ‘recreating’ animals and plants that existed thousands of years ago. Scientific knowledge, despite its increasing prescience and accuracy, is still based on limited information. Will it ever be possible to foresee all the consequences of bringing back something that no longer exists, whose DNA we can extract from the organic matter that is being uncovered at a rapid rate? Beyond the unassessed dangers are questions of whether it is at all ethical to ‘create’ animals that will not have large communities or an existence beyond experiments.

Countries, including Pakistan, where there is permafrost that is thawing as global warming continues, should be engaged in these scientific conversations. While various task forces around the issue of climate change have been created by the government to discuss at international summits like COP, there is an urgent need to create others that are looking particularly at the issue of permafrost and its threat to the environment in terms of carbon emissions. It is true that this phenomenon needs greater study and research in the country.

Nevertheless, Pakistan must arm itself with knowledge around the subject and develop a strategy around it. There is increasing concern about climate change in the country, and no aspect of it must be left out.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.
rafia.zakaria@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, April 17th, 2024

The risk of escalation

Zahid Hussain 

DAWN

Published April 17, 2024

AN eerie calm prevails after Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel. Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israeli territory in retaliation for the killing of its senior military commanders in an air raid on its consulate in Damascus earlier this month. It was a calibrated operation designed to send a strong message against any aggression by the Zionist state.

Although no serious damage was done, the sheer spectacle of missiles raining down on Israeli territory has tested arguably the strongest military power in the region. It is not over yet. An expected revenge strike by Tel Aviv has put the region on edge. The call for restraint by Israel’s Western allies and the international community at large is not likely to deter the hard-liner Zionist regime which is seeking to widen the conflict.

Any direct Israeli military action against Iranian installations is bound to widen the conflagration, with serious ramifications for the Middle East and beyond. The risk of tensions escalating into a full-blown military confrontation between the two major regional powers is extremely high, with far-right Israeli groups calling for a swift and forceful retaliation to the Iranian response.

Can the US and its other Western allies restrain the right-wing Israeli government that is already engaged in a genocidal war in Gaza with the weapons supplied by the same powers? It does not seem to be happening with their continuing defence of Israel’s bellicosity. While swiftly condemning the Iranian response, those countries have completely ignored Israel’s killing of Iranian military commanders.


Any direct Israeli military action against Iranian installations is bound to widen the conflagration.

It was Israel’s act of war that triggered the Iranian response. The situation appears to be getting out control with the vicious cycle of retaliatory actions. Apparently, it was part of the plan of the Zionist regime to pull Tehran into the conflict triggered by its brutal military action in Gaza that has killed over 34,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children. The ongoing massacre in the occupied territory is in its seventh month and has evoked a strong public reaction across the world, increasing Israel’s isolation.

The recent incident of Israel’s fatal bombing of a convoy carrying foreign relief workers, as well as the onset of famine in the war-ravaged occupied Strip, has pushed even Tel Aviv’s staunchest allies to call for a temporary ceasefire. But all that has gone unheeded by the Benjamin Netanyahu government.

Israel has also rejected the UN Security Council resolution for a cessation of hostilities. Instead, Tel Aviv has tried to extend its war to Iran and the surrounding countries. It has repeatedly bombed Syria and Lebanon. The unprovoked bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in clear violation of international law, was apparently meant to divert the attention of the world from the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

The silence of the US and some other Western countries over the raid on the Iranian consulate has only provided impunity to the Zionist state. The mantra of Israel’s ‘right to self defence’ has given Tel Aviv a licence to not only continue with its genocidal war in Gaza but to also take military action across its borders. The hypocrisy of the US and some other Western countries has been fully exposed. During the debate in the emergency session of the UN Security Council, they blamed only Iran’s retaliatory strike for raising tensions in the region.

It was apparent that Iran did not want to escalate the situation that would have run the risk of the US getting militarily involved in the conflict. Tehran had informed the Biden administration and the regional countries about the impending retaliatory missile strike on Israel and the limited objective. That gave the US and its allies, as well as Israel, time to take measures to mitigate the impact.

Subsequently, over 90 per cent of the drones and missiles were intercepted before they could hit the targets. Iran’s prime minister declared that his country was acting in “self-defence” and that it “targeted Israeli bases used to carry out the consulate strike”. The prior notice appeared to be a deliberate move by the Iranian leadership to minimise the risks. The strategy seemed to have worked, with the unanimous call by the international community for restraint.

Iran has, however, made it clear that any further Israeli misadventure would be met with a more forceful military response. “We now categorically declare that the smallest action against Iranian interests will certainly be met with a severe, widespread and painful response,” warned Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

While it is evident that none among its allies would like the conflict to spread, Israel still insists on revenge. Its military chief Herzi Halevi has said that Iran’s attack “will be met with a response”, despite mounting calls for restraint from international leaders.

Israel’s belligerent stance has worsened the predicament of the Biden administration, which now appears increasingly worried by Israel’s reckless approach. While reiterating his administration’s commitment to providing “ironclad” support to Israel, US President Joe Biden also said that Washington will not get involved in any direct military action against Iran. There is growing pressure on Israeli leaders not only from the US but also from other allies for de-escalation. But the German foreign minister went a step further, appearing to question Israel’s right to strike back. “The right to self-defence means fending off an attack; retaliation is not a category in international law,” she said. The statement is significant as Germany is the second largest supplier of arms to Israel after the US.

Moreover, the country is also facing charges of “facilitating the commission of genocide” in Gaza, in coordination with Israel at the International Court of Justice. Growing public opinion at home against the Gaza war seems to have forced Western nations to take a step back from lending unqualified support to the Zionist state. But the statements by Israeli leaders that they would not only go ahead with a high-risk revenge strike against Iran but also intensify their war in Gaza has rendered the situation extremely combustible. It is hard to rein in a rogue nation.

The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, April 17th, 2024

Between colonialism and extremism, Pakistan continues to exist in the shadows

Pakistan seems to be split into a minority of two extremes — the liberals and the conservative — whose voices are the loudest. In the meantime, no one knows what the vast majority of Pakistan wants, because no one is listening.

Sabahat Quadri 

Published April 17, 2024 

I have a long-time acquaintance who moved to Pakistan from Malaysia when he was almost an adult. For the sake of his privacy, let’s call him Junaid. He is a globe-trotting critic — the kind of acquaintance you can’t shake off, no matter how hard you try. He swapped the palm-fringed shores of Malaysia for the bustling streets of Pakistan, bringing along more than just his luggage; he brought his opinions too, and boy, does he love to share them.

Having also lived a few years in Saudi Arabia, he’s now busy comparing us to a country that could buy and sell us as a side project, and still telling us how terrible this country is. From bashing Pakistan to praising the latest country he’s set foot in, Junaid’s commentary is as consistent as the sunrise.

Fast forward to our latest encounter right after the elections — Junaid, unable to cast his own vote because he couldn’t get himself a CNIC from Nadra for unknown reasons — found joy in ridiculing those who did. He laughed about how ‘stupid’ PTI supporters were for thinking that voting was going to change the country.

Now, this is an obnoxious man, so I take his comments with a pinch of salt. But he’s not alone in his disdain. A journalist in Islamabad, alongside a Twitter columnist, joined the chorus, labelling PTI supporters as everything from ‘uninformed’ and ‘ignorant’ to ‘over-zealous ideologues’ and ‘fanatics’.

But Pakistan isn’t just a battleground for political debates. It’s a free-for-all where everyone is itching to tell you how to live, how to pray, and even how to think. There’s a Junaid in every corner, ready to school you on the “correct” way to practice Islam or why your political views are outdated, leaving no room for alternative voices — not in politics, not in religion, and not even in culture.

Pakistan seems to be split into a minority of two extremes — the liberals and the religious — whose voices are the loudest. In the meantime, no one knows what the vast majority of Pakistan wants, because no one is listening. Most of us are stuck in the middle, drowned out by the roar of extremism on both ends, silently wondering: “What about us?”
Unaffected by global events

In the global spotlight, there’s a dialogue we’re missing out on. While Israel ramps up its genocidal assault on Palestine (because let’s not forget the escalating violence by the Israelis in the West Bank, despite our focus on Gaza), a new cognisance about colonialism has taken hold.

In their efforts to bring their cause to light, Palestinian voices in the diaspora are leading the charge, exposing colonialism for the ugly truth that it is. Through decades of patient campaigning and organising, Palestinian civil society has raised an awareness across the Global South of the devastation colonialism wrought, its lasting scars and its modern-day manifestations.

In Pakistan, we have also recognised this, but we seem unable to emerge from that looming shadow. Our leaders are both deeply embedded in the neo-colonial capitalist structures and snake pits of the Global North — more concerned with their own pockets than their country. Their collective visions of Pakistan’s future are borrowed from the Middle East or the West, while our intellectual class remains fixated on India. Our leaders completely abrogate any responsibility while the majority of Pakistanis are left to fend for themselves, trapped in poverty, illiteracy, and injustice.

Small sections of civil society are helping to alleviate some of these issues, but unless they can scale up at a phenomenal rate, there is little chance that they’ll do more than apply band-aids to the seething wounds inflicted upon us. Meanwhile, if there is some semblance of organisation within society, some spark of engagement and participatory citizenship — however you may dislike how they participate — we are quick to shut it down with contempt, derision, and indifference.

This is the same contempt a feudal feels for his serfs. The same contempt I’ve seen middle-class women hold for their domestic staff. The same contempt a school owner in a Katchi Abadi in Karachi has for his students (“Why give them parathas when all they’re used to are rotis?”). This isn’t just a lack of empathy; it’s a legacy of colonialism ingrained in our society. It’s the language of the British Raj internalised, absorbed, and well-padded with expensive foreign educations in neo-colonial USA or through Saudi Arabia’s deliberate attempt to spread Salafism.
Divide et Impera

Just as we continue to battle the quest for ‘fair skin’ — our deep-seated gora complex — and the drive to bury our native languages in favour of English, we should recognise that we’ve inherited this attitude of contempt from our oppressors.

After the 1857 War of Independence (which is still referred to in the UK as the Mutiny), Lord Elphinstone wrote:

“I have long considered the subject, and I am convinced that the exact converse of this policy of assimilation is our only safe military policy in India. Divide et impera (divide and rule) was the old Roman motto, and it should be ours. The safety of the great iron steamers, which are adding so much to our military power, and which are probably destined to add still more to our commercial superiority, is greatly increased by building them in compartments. I would ensure the safety of our Indian Empire by constructing our native army on the same principle; for this purpose I would avail myself of those divisions of language and race we find ready to hand.”

Similarly, Brigadier John Coke, an officer in the North West Frontier (before it became a province of Pakistan), said:

“Our endeavour should be to uphold in full force the (fortunate for us) separation which exists between the different religions and races, and not to endeavour to amalgamate them. Divide et impera should be the principle of Indian Government.” [sic]

Years earlier, Lord Macaulay had already started the process of breaking down the subcontinent’s existing education system. Having received an extensive grant for investing in education for the ‘natives’, he was hesitant to invest in existing materials which were all in either Persian, Urdu (which he called Arabic), or Sanskrit.

He lobbied strongly to replace all oriental literature with English books, because he “never found one among them (orientalists) who could deny that a single shelf of a good European library was worth the whole native literature of India and Arabia. The intrinsic superiority of the Western literature is, indeed, fully admitted by those members of the committee who support the oriental plan of education.”

Lord Macaulay relished the idea of educating the Indian into “a class of persons, Indian in blood and colour, but English in taste, in opinions, in morals, and in intellect.”

The British wanted us divided. They also considered us unable to progress on our own without their superior intellect and help. The US feels no differently. Nor does Saudi Arabia. Both countries have continued to colonise us and divide us.

Where once we longed to be British, we now long to be American or Arab (the rich Arabs, that is. No one here yearns to be a Yemeni). We educate our children in US universities. We internalise their language and their ideologies. These children return to their home countries to bring enlightenment to us. They bring back with them not solutions to the daily struggles of a family of 10 who can’t save for their futures, but principles of capitalism, secularism, liberalism, and rationalism that only serve to crush any last vestiges of identity the population is still clinging on to.

Meanwhile, those coming from the Middle East bring with them the outward trappings of Salafism and a complete disdain for Sufism, our music, our poetry, our rituals and customs, disregarding them all as either ‘innovations’ in Islam or superstitions learned from Hindus.

And this is possibly the logic (and I can find no other logic for it) behind the division of Pakistan into two non-contiguous land masses.

A small example of this attitude is the hugely popular Coke Studio. Leaving aside the irony of a programme sponsored by a global corporation that abets apartheid in Palestine and represents the worst aspects of capitalism, the programme itself is instrumental in reminding our middle classes of the great Sufi legacy we can and should remember, revere, and tap into.

However, as one former colleague of mine put it, it’s too ‘populist’ for him. Suggesting music from Coke Studio at my previous place of work (with a select few, all of whom were educated abroad and belong to the upper crust of society) will return a turned up nose and much mocking. Salafists, on the other hand, simply dismiss music as ‘unIslamic’, and have the same reaction to the popularity of the programme.

In all cases, these segments of society view each other and the vast majority of their fellow citizens (who don’t agree with them) with complete and utter contempt.
Break open the compartments

Britain’s iron steamers left a long time ago. Whatever veneer of civilisation the Global North had has been well and truly stripped since this latest war on Gaza, along with it any notion that Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, could be the spiritual leader of the Ummah.

The United States’ own domestic affairs are in a deep divide. Evidence of the corruption of their leadership, judiciary, media, and political system is visible for the whole world to see. Its social poles keep moving further and further apart. If we must learn from empire, perhaps this is what we should be looking at: what not to do with our own societies.

It’s time we stopped scoffing at each other’s views.

It’s time we stopped dismissing the other for their desi accents or local brand of shoes.

It’s time we turned inwards in contemplation; remember that we are all, from all parts of the country, human beings whose diversity gives us strength rather than dividing us.

It’s time we moved beyond the circles of school and family that keep widening the rift between the silent majority and the vocal few.

Start by actually speaking to the people (which is something that none of the reigning political parties do either) and finding out what they really want, rather than assuming you know what is best for them. Start by listening with the respect we learned from our elders, not the crude superiority of the white man towards the brown native.



The author is a graphic designer, web designer, and writer, currently managing the secondary educational product at Knowledge Platform, where she writes engaging educational content for K-12 English language and development courses on pedagogy.

Did cloud seeding cause powerful Gulf storm?

Reuters 

Published April 18, 2024 

DUBAI: A storm hit the United Arab Emirates and Oman this week bringing record rainfall that flooded highways, inundated houses, grid-locked traffic and trapped people in their homes.

At least 20 people were reported to have died in the deluge in Oman while another person was said to have died in floods in the UAE that closed government offices and schools for days.

The storm had initially hit Oman on Sunday before it pounded the UAE on Tuesday, knocking out power and causing huge disruptions to flights as runways were turned into rivers.

In the UAE, a record 254 millimetres (10 inches) of rainfall was recorded in Al Ain, a city bordering Oman. It was the largest ever in a 24-hour period since records started in 1949.

Experts say global warming leading to ‘extraordinarily’ warm water in seas around Dubai

Cloud seeding?

Rainfall is rare in the UAE and elsewhere on the Arabian Peninsula, that is typically known for its dry desert climate. Summer air temperatures can soar above 50 degrees Celsius.

But the UAE and Oman also lack drainage systems to cope with heavy rains and submerged roads are not uncommon during rainfall.

Following Tuesday’s events, questions were raised whether cloud seeding, a process that the UAE frequently conducts, could have caused the heavy rains.

Cloud seeding is a process in which chemicals are implanted into clouds to increase rainfall in an environment where water scarcity is a concern.

The UAE, located in one of the hottest and driest regions on earth, has been leading the effort to seed clouds and increase precipitation.

But the UAE’s meteorology agency told Reuters there were no such operations before the storm.

Climate change

The huge rainfall was instead likely due to a normal weather system that was exacerbated by climate change, experts say.

A low pressure system in the upper atmosphere, coupled with low pressure at the surface had acted like a pressure ‘squeeze’ on the air, according to Esraa Alnaqbi, a senior forecaster at the UAE government’s National Centre of Meteorology.

That squeeze, intensified by the contrast between warmer temperatures at ground level and colder temperatures higher up, created the conditions for the powerful thunderstorm, she said.

The “abnormal phenomenon” was not unexpected in April as when the season changes the pressure changes rapidly, she said, adding that climate change also likely contributed to the storm.

Climate scientists say that rising global temperatures, caused by human-led climate change, is leading to more extreme weather events around the world, including intense rainfall.

“Rainfall from thunderstorms, like the ones seen in UAE in recent days, sees a particular strong increase with warming. This is because convection, which is the strong updraft in thunderstorms, strengthens in a warmer world,” said Dim Coumou, a professor in climate extremes at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

‘Can’t create clouds from nothing’

Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, said rainfall was becoming much heavier around the world as the climate warms because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. It was misleading to talk about cloud seeding as the cause of the heavy rainfall, she said.

“Cloud seeding cant create clouds from nothing. It encourages water that is already in the sky to condense faster and drop water in certain places. So first, you need moisture. Without it, there’d be no clouds,” she said.

Global warming has resulted in “extraordinarily” warm water in the seas around Dubai, where there is also very warm air above, said Mark Howden, Director at the Australian National University’s Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions.

“This increases both potential evaporation rates and the capacity of the atmosphere to hold that water, allowing bigger dumps of rainfall such as what we have just seen in Dubai.” Gabi Hegerl, a climatologist at Edinburgh University, said that extreme rainfall, like in the UAE and Oman, was likely to get worse in many places due to the effects of climate change.

When conditions are perfect for really heavy rain, there’s more moisture in the air, so it rains harder. This extra moisture is because the air is warmer, which is because of human-caused climate change, she said.

Published in Dawn, April 18th, 2024

Motaz Azaiza is representing ‘the voice of Gaza’ with his Time’s most influential people list inclusion

The Palestinian journalist extensively documented the impact of the fighting, Israeli aggression and wide-scale destruction of Gaza for over 100 days.

Images Staff
18 Apr, 2024


Palestinian photojournalist Motaz Azaiza was named one of the 100 Most Influential People of 2024 by Time magazine for acting as the “world’s eyes and ears” during the ongoing Israeli military offensive that has decimated the Gaza Strip.

The list has highlighted the influential people under six categories: leaders, pioneers, artists, icons, innovators and titans.

The photographer took to his Instagram account to emphasise that the honour was not about him but about “what Motaz represents”.

“He represents the voice of Gaza people who got killed, murdered, bombed and displaced by [the] Israeli occupation,” he wrote, sharing a picture of himself posted by Time magazine.






Azaiza also highlighted how he was dubbed “the Palestinian photographer”, stating that he was blessed to share his country’s name wherever he went and whatever he achieved.

“For those who don’t recognise Palestine as a state, or for those who claims that it’s their land. Palestine gonna be free one day from Zionists and occupation.”






“Everyone does his part, and my part is not done yet,” the photojournalist said.

At least 97 journalists and media workers, the majority being Palestinian at 92, have been killed since Israel began its attacks on the Gaza Strip, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) reports.

“Journalists in Gaza face particularly high risks as they try to cover the conflict during the Israeli ground assault, including devastating Israeli airstrikes, disrupted communications, supply shortages and extensive power outages,” the CPJ notes.

Amid all this, Azaiza extensively documented the impact of the fighting, Israeli aggression and wide-scale destruction of Gaza for over 100 days.

The freelance photographer, who was forced onto the frontlines by the horrors of the conflict as most foreign reporters were denied access to Gaza, gained global attention when he recorded himself wearing a press vest and helmet to report on the conditions during the fighting in Israel.

His coverage often took the form of raw, unfiltered videos about injured children or people crushed under rubble in the aftermath of Israeli aggression.

Azaiza’s Instagram account was a transition of how a city went from lights and joy to death, grief and loss.

He evacuated Gaza in January and is now in Doha, Qatar.

Time said that “for 108 days, Motaz Azaiza acted as the world’s eyes and ears in his native Gaza. Armed with a camera and a flak jacket marked ‘press’, the 25-year-old Palestinian photographer spent nearly four months documenting life under Israeli bombardment.”

It said that his photographs offered a glimpse into Gaza that “few in the international press … could rival”, adding that he did so at “great risk”.

The magazine said that since his evacuation, Azaiza had moved to raising awareness of the crisis and calling for international intervention.

“What is happening in Gaza is not content for you,” he was quoted as saying by the magazine. “We are not telling you what is happening … for your likes or views or shares. No, we are waiting for you to act. We need to stop this war.”

Azaiza was nominated by Yasmeen Serhan, a journalist and a Time magazine staff writer. Other prominent names on the list include singer Dua Lipa, animator Hayao Miyazaki, footballer Patrick Mahomes, Formula One driver Max Verstappen and Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.

WORLD:  ‘OUR DRUG TRAFFICKER’

Jorge Heine 

Published April 14, 2024

THE CONVERSATION

When Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted by a federal jury in Manhattan in early March 2024, it marked a spectacular fall from grace: from being courted in the US as a friendly head of state, to facing the rest of his life behind bars, convicted of cocaine importation and weapons offences.

“Juan Orlando Hernández abused his position as president of Honduras to operate the country as a narco-state, where violent drug traffickers were allowed with virtual impunity,” said US Attorney General Merrick Garland following the jury conviction.

Anne Milgram, administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), added: “When the leader of Honduras and the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel work hand-in-hand to send deadly drugs into the United States, both deserve to be accountable.”

The conviction was a victory for the Justice Department and the DEA. During Hernández’s two terms in office, from 2014 to 2022, he and his acolytes transported more than 400 tonnes of cocaine into the United States, according to US prosecutors. The former head of state now faces a mandatory sentence of up to 40 years in prison; sentencing is scheduled for June 26.

The amazing story of the man who created the first narco-state of the 21st century, and how the United States helped him every step of the way — until now

But there’s more to this story.

As I explore in the book 21st Century Democracy Promotion in the Americas: Standing Up for the Polity, written in collaboration with the Open University’s Britta Weiffen, Honduras is a tragic example of what happens when a country becomes a narco-state.

While its people suffer the consequences — the World Bank reports that about half the country currently lives under poverty — its leaders grow rich through the drugs trade.

Furthermore, the way Hernández came to power and maintained that position for so long could provide “Exhibit A” in any indictment of US policy toward Central America — and Latin America more generally — over the past few decades.

GROWING TIES WITH CARTELS

Up to Hernández’s arrest in Tegucigalpa, the Honduran capital, and extradition to the United States in January 2022, his biggest enabler had been none other than the US government itself.

Presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden all backed Hernández and allowed him to inflict enormous harm to Honduras and to the US in the process.

How so? To answer this question, some background is needed.

On June 28, 2009, a classic military coup took place in Honduras. In the wee hours of the morning, while still in his pyjamas, President Manuel “Mel” Zelaya was unceremoniously escorted by armed soldiers from his home and flown to a neighbouring country.

The coup leaders alleged that, by calling for a referendum on reforming the Honduran constitution, the government was moving toward removing the one-term presidential term limit enshrined in the country’s charter and opening the door to authoritarianism.

Initially, then-President Barack Obama protested the coup and took measures against those responsible — the right-wing opponents of Zelaya. But the administration eventually relented and allowed the coup leaders to prevail, largely due to pressure from Republicans, who saw Zelaya as being too close to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, whose leftist agenda was deemed by the GOP [Republican Party] as a threat to US interests.

The coup-makers simply ran the clock against the upcoming election date and installed their own candidate in the presidency, Porfirio Lobo of the National Party, whose son Fabio was also later convicted of cocaine trafficking.

WASHINGTON LOOKS THE OTHER WAY

Lobo laid the foundations of Honduras as the new century’s first narco-state, allowing drug cartels to infiltrate the highest echelons of government and the security apparatus, as the cocaine trade became an increasingly central plank of the country’s economy.

All the while, the US pumped tens of millions of dollars into building up Honduras’ police and military, despite widespread allegations of their being engaged in corruption, complicit in the drugs trade and engaged in human rights abuses.

The dollars continued to flow when Lobo was succeeded in 2013 by his buddy and fellow National Party member, Juan Orlando Hernández.

In 2017, Hernández — an ardent supporter of the 2009 coup — ran for a second term after the Supreme Court of Honduras pronounced this to be perfectly legal.

Many Hondurans believe Hernández stole the November 2017 elections. The vote count was suspended in the middle of the night as Hernández was running behind and, when the polls opened in the morning, he miraculously emerged as a winner.

Despite widespread allegations of election fraud, the US quickly recognised the result, congratulating Hernández on his win. Emboldened by his success, Hernández continued to build up Honduras as the new century’s first narco-state of the Americas.

In 2018, the president’s brother, Juan Antonio “Tony” Hernández, a former member of the Honduran parliament, was arrested in the US for his association with the Cartel de Sinaloa, the Mexican drug cartel.

This entity valued his services so much that they named a particular strain of cocaine after him, stamping the bags as “TH”. Tony Hernández was convicted on four charges in 2019, sentenced to 30 years in prison, and has been in a US federal prison ever since.

President Hernández denied any association with the cartel, but the evidence pointed to the contrary. As reported in The Economist, in a New York City trial, one accused drug trafficker alleged that Hernández took bribes for “helping cocaine reach the United States.”

Another witness testified that the president had taken two bribes in 2013, before being elected; a former cartel leader testified that the president had been paid $250,000 to protect him from being arrested.

‘COMPLICIT OR GULLIBLE’

Given Hernández’s history in Honduras, the repeated claims of US government officials, that they simply didn’t know of his crimes, ring hollow.

Honduras became a narco-state in part because US policymakers looked the other way as it did so. They embraced Hernández because he was ideologically more palatable and subservient to Washington’s wishes, compared to his rival, Zelaya. But as the trial verdict in Manhattan makes clear, it was a decision with disastrous consequences.

As one State Department official put it, “Today’s verdict makes all of us who collaborated with [Hernández] look either complicit or gullible.”

The latter may be the more charitable assessment. But the truth is more uncomfortable.

The writer is Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University in the USA.

Republished from The Conversation

Published in Dawn, EOS, April 14th, 2024

German far-right firebrand in court for using Nazi slogan

Céline LE PRIOUX
Wed, 17 April 2024 

Bjoern Hoecke, the head of the far-right AfD party in Germany's Thuringia state, faces accusations of using a banned Nazi slogan (Ronny HARTMANN)

He is a former history teacher who is gunning to become the first far-right state premier in post-war Germany. But first, Bjoern Hoecke will have to appear in court on Thursday for publicly using a banned Nazi slogan.

Hoecke, 52, is the head of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Thuringia, one of three former East German states where the party is leading opinion polls ahead of regional elections in September.

He stands accused of twice using the phrase "Alles fuer Deutschland" ("Everything for Germany"), once a motto of the so-called Sturmabteilung paramilitary group that played a key role in Adolf Hitler's rise to power.


The phrase is illegal in modern-day Germany, along with the Nazi salute and other slogans and symbols from that era.

The former high school teacher claims not to have been aware that the slogan "Everything for Germany" had been used by the Nazis, but prosecutors believe Hoecke uttered the phrase in full knowledge of its "origin and meaning".

The trial in the central city of Halle, set to last until mid-May, is one of several controversies the AfD is battling ahead of EU elections in June and regional elections in the autumn.

If convicted, Hoecke faces up to three years in prison. Following a guilty verdict, he could still stand in the regional election, but only if he engages in a drawn-out appeals process.

- 'Memorial of shame' -

Founded in 2013, the anti-Islam and anti-immigration AfD saw a surge in popularity on its tenth anniversary last year, seizing on concerns over rising migration, high inflation and a stumbling economy.

But its support has wavered since the start of this year as it battles scandals including allegations that senior party members were paid to spread pro-Russian positions on a Moscow-financed news website.

Considered an extremist by German intelligence services, Hoecke is one of the most controversial AfD personalities, having called Berlin's Holocaust monument a "memorial of shame" and urged a "180-degree shift" in the country's culture of remembrance.

At the trial on Thursday, Hoecke will have to answer to two charges.

He first stands accused of using the banned slogan at an election rally in Merseburg in the Saxony-Anhalt state in the run-up to Germany's 2021 federal election.

Then, at an AfD meeting in Thuringia in December, he allegedly shouted, "Everything for..." and incited the audience to reply: "Germany".

Born in western Germany near the city of Dortmund, Hoecke grew up in a right-wing family -- under the influence of his paternal grandparents, who were expelled from East Prussia when it was conquered by the Soviet Red Army in 1945.

The father-of-four later settled in Thuringia, where he became one of the founding members of the AfD in spring 2013 and local party chairman three months later.

In 2014, the AfD entered the state parliament in Thuringia with 10.6 percent of the vote and Hoecke became head of the party's parliamentary group -- a position he still holds today.

- Image problem -

Germany's domestic security agency has labelled the AfD in Thuringia a "confirmed" extremist organisation, along with the party's regional branches in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.

However, Johannes Kiess, a political scientist at the University of Leipzig, said the outcome of the trial was unlikely to dent support for Hoecke in Thuringia.

AfD supporters in the region are "convinced that the democratic institutions are out to get him", Kiess told AFP.

"It could even be good for him, because the media are talking about him," he said.

But the trial could sway voters in western Germany because it risks "damaging the party's image", Kiess continued.

"Potential voters do not want to be associated with this kind of statement."

Hoecke has been working to clean up his image ahead of the EU elections.

At a television debate last week with the conservative Christian Democratic Union party's candidate for Thuringia, Hoecke repeatedly argued that he had been misinterpreted when taken to task over some of his most controversial claims.

Among them was the party's concept of "remigration" -- short-hand in far-right circles for the mass expulsion of immigrants.

Instead, Hoecke argued that his party was seeking to bring back Germans living abroad.

clp-fec/hmn/spb/rlp/lb

Six arrested over Canada’s ‘largest’ ever gold heist worth $20m

Michelle Del Rey
Wed, 17 April 2024 


Six people have been arrested over what officials say was the “largest” gold heist in Canada’s history.

The theft of 6,600 gold bars weighing more than 400 kilograms took place at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport a year ago. The loot had a value of $20m CAD.

“This story is a sensational one, and one which probably, we jokingly say, belongs in a Netflix series”, Chief of the Peel Regional Police Nishan Duraiappah said during a Wednesday news conference.


An investigative project team called “24 karat” determined that a group of organised crime members were able to easily pull off the robbery using their positions as employees of Air Canada.

The gold, along with foreign currency notes valued at $2.5m CAD, were ordered from a refinery in Zurich, Switzerland. The stolen goods were then transferred in the hull of an Air Canada flight bound for Toronto. Two of the people involved in the heist were employed by the airline, with one of them working in a managerial role.

When the gold arrived in the country, it was offloaded from the plane and brought to an Air Canada cargo facility. One of the suspects later entered the facility with a five-tonne truck, using a fraudulent air waybill from the day before for a seafood shipment.

A truck used to transport stolen gold is displayed at a press conference regarding Project 24K a joint investigation into the theft of gold from Pearson International Airport, in Brampton, Ontario, on Wednesday, April 17, 2024 (AP)

The duplicate bill was printed off an Air Canada printer, Detective Sergeant Mike Mavity said at the news conference, standing in front of the truck used in the crime. Later, a forklift loaded the gold and foreign currency into the suspect’s vehicle. The man drove away.

Investigators have so far been able to recover $90,000 CAD out of the $20m CAD in gold.

Detective Sergeant Mavity said his team believes that the gold was melted down and sold off to purchase firearms. Additionally, investigators have recovered $430,000 CAD, thought to be some of the proceeds from the sales, six gold bangles valued at $89,000 CAD, smelting posts cast and moulds.

Lists recovered during the investigation show where the money was distributed when the gold was sold, the detective said.

Five people have been arrested in connection with the crime: Parmpal Sidhu, 54, an Air Canada employee at the time of the crime; Amit Jalota, 40; Ammad Chaudhary, 43; Ali Raza, 37 and Prasath Paramalingam, 35.

The men have been hit with various charges, including theft over $5,000 CAD, conspiracy to commit an indictable offence and possession of property obtained by crime, among others. The suspects have been released on conditions and will appear before in court at a later date in accordance with Canadian law.

Police officers open the back of a recovered truck during a press conference regarding Project 24K a joint investigation into the theft of gold from Pearson International Airport, in Brampton, Ontario, on Wednesday, April 17, 2024 (AP)

Search warrants have been issued for the following individuals: Simran Preet Panesar, 31, a former Air Canada employee; Archit Grover, 36 and Arsalan Chaudhary, 42.

Durante King-Mclean, 25, the driver of the truck is currently in US custody on firearms-trafficking-related charges. Canadian charges have also been issued for the suspect.

In a statement, a representative for Air Canada said, “We thank the police for their diligent efforts in investigating this matter. As this is now before the courts, we are limited in our ability to comment further”.

Mr King-Mclean was stopped by Pennsylvania State Police in September for minor traffic violations. He attempted to flee the area on foot but was caught. Authorities discovered 65 illegal firearms in his truck that they said were heading to Canada.

A photo of firearms seized is displayed during a news conference regarding an investigation into the theft of gold from Toronto’s Pearson International airport, in Brampton, Ontario, Canada on Wednesday, April 17, 2024 (AP)

“What we've come to learn from the service over and over is it always comes down to guns and organised crime”, said Nando Iannicca, chairman of the Peel Police Services Board. “This isn't just about gold. This is about how gold becomes guns”.

Following the incident, Brinks, a Miami-based transport and security services provider, sued Air Canada for negligence. The company had been hired by a Swiss bank to move the stolen goods from Zurich to Toronto.

Six men arrested in Toronto gold heist that ‘belongs in a Netflix series’

Leyland Cecco in Toronto

THE GUARDIAN
Wed, April 17, 2024 

The Peel regional police chief, Nishan Duraiappah, speaks about an investigation into the theft of gold from Toronto’s Pearson international airport on Wednesday.Photograph: Arlyn McAdorey/AP


Police investigating a brazen multimillion-dollar gold heist at Toronto’s main airport have arrested six men and seized dozens of firearms linked to the case which officers said “belongs in a Netflix series”.

Six thousand six hundred gold bars, worth C$21m, and C$2.7m in cash were stolen from a cargo facility at Toronto’s Pearson international airport a year ago in the country’s largest-ever gold heist.

On Wednesday, Peel regional police were joined by members of the US Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives to announce developments linked to a “vast and complex” investigation that spanned the two countries. Investigators have arrested six people – five in Canada and one in the US – laid 19 charges and issued three Canada-wide warrants.


The thieves, who arrived at the airport with a five-tonne truck, were able to abscond with the gold after presenting a genuine airline waybill – but one that had been used for a seafood order the day before.

“This story is a sensational one and one which probably, we jokingly say, belongs in a Netflix series,” said the Peel regional police chief, Nishan Duraiappah, standing in front of the truck used in the heist.

Police say the gold, which had recently arrived from Zurich, was later melted down and allegedly used to fund the purchase of firearms intended for sale in Canada as part of a trafficking ring. Smelting pots, casts and moulds were seized as part of the investigation.

Related: Legal dispute rages over unsolved C$24m gold heist at Toronto airport

Among those arrested were Parmpal Sidhu, a 54-year-old Air Canada employee. A second employee, Simran Preet Panesar, 31, is the subject of a nationwide warrant, prompting police to call the heist an “inside job”. The suspected driver of the truck, Durante King-Mclean, is in custody in the US. He was pulled over during a traffic stop in Pennsylvania and was found with 65 firearms in his possession. Police say two of the guns had been modified to have fully automatic capabilities and five of the guns had been stripped of their serial numbers.

None of the charges have been proven in court.

The airline and armoured car company that handled the cargo are still locked in a bitter lawsuit over the theft, with each saying the other is to blame for one of Canada’s largest ever heists. Brink’s, the armoured car company, says that because of this lax security, thieves were able to leave with a haul of gold weighing 400kg and stacks of cash weighing more than 50kg. Air Canada alleges Brink’s shipped the gold and cash from Zurich to Toronto without declaring its value, failing to add any insurance and declining to pay extra for added security.

Both companies have invoked the Montreal convention, which regulates international shipments and sets a compensation limit for the loss of cargo. None of the statements or allegations filed in the lawsuit documents have been tested in the federal court which is hearing the case.

Biden administration to halt major mining project over tribal hunting concerns

John Bowden
Wed, 17 April 2024

 (NPS/Ken Hill)

The Department of Interior is set to announce a ruling that would effectively halt a major mining development in Alaska over concerns that dozens of local tribes will be disrupted by the project.

The Biden administration was set to issue a “no action” ruling for the federal land previously set to be the site of Ambler Road, a proposed 211-mile industrial road deep through the Alaskan wilderness, multiple news outlets reported.

The project was set to go through the Arctic National Park and Preserve, a major piece of protected land in the northern half of the state.

The news could end a years-long battle between local tribes who opposed the project due to its impact on subsistence hunting, which is a major part of some tribal lifestyles across the state.

The project was also a controversial issue for the tribes as it was approved just days before Donald Trump left office by an Interior head who Politico found to have covered up environmental and tribal impacts studied as part of the planning process.

Now, it looks like the project is dead; the refusal of the federal government to allow construction of a road means there remains no plan for a supply chain to be set up to allow access to large copper and zinc deposits known as the Ambler Mining District in Alaska’s northwest. The minerals are key components in batteries and engines for electric vehicles.

The Tanana Chiefs Conference, a tribal group representing dozens of villages, had long fought the project and warned that the road and associated mines would “have devastating impacts on all fish in-migration and out-migration, spawning and rearing habitat, and will especially compromise species at risk like Chinook” due to the sheer number of rivers and estuaries the project would be expected to cross.

“The Ambler Road will pierce the heart of the hunting and fishing lands that our people have depended on for thousands of years,” reads a website the Conference set up in opposition to the project.

It continues: “The road alone would cause harmful impacts along 125 miles and 200,000 acres of public lands managed by the State in trust for its people. The Ambler Road project would be one of the biggest and most destructive in the State’s history.”

In a statement obtained by Politico, the company focused on the development of the mines and called the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) move “an unlawful and politically motivated decision”. It is expected to be challenged by a state agency, the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority.

The move was also condemned by Alaska’s entire bipartisan congressional delegation. Democrat Mary Peltola issued a lengthy statement calling the Biden administration’s ruling “disappointing” and writing that the resources were crucial for clean energy development — while also posing an economic opportunity in a region bereft of many.

“The Ambler Access Road is necessary to access the Ambler Mining District, the development of which could create new, good-paying jobs in a region of the state that has limited economic opportunity. Our nation relies on foreign governments for many of the critical minerals used in clean energy development, national security, and everyday electronics,” wrote the congresswoman.

“Alaska has a wealth of natural resources that can be responsibly developed to help boost domestic manufacturing and innovation, but we need to be able to access those deposits. In this time of heightened international and geopolitical conflict, we must not arbitrarily preclude Alaskans’ ability to access deposits like Ambler.”

The Interior Department’s final ruling is expected to be released later this week.

Australia rises to second in world budget management rankings, IMF data shows


Peter Hannam Economics correspondent

THE GUARDIAN
Wed, 17 April 2024 

Treasurer Jim Chalmers at a press conference about the 2023/2023 budget. The IMF’s fiscal monitor found Australia’s budget balance is the second strongest among G20 nations

.Photograph: Martin Ollman/Getty Images

Australia’s overall budget balance is the second strongest among G20 nations, behind only Canada, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest fiscal monitor.

The IMF’s half-yearly update, released on Wednesday night, found Australia’s overall budget balance came in at -0.9% of gross domestic product in 2023, with only Canada’s budget position (-0.6%) faring better.

Australia has shot up the rankings in the latest data, having placed equal 14th in 2021 and seventh in 2022, when it fared worse than countries such as Korea, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Related: Australians’ spending softened in March after Taylor Swift concert splurge

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, and the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, hailed what they described as a “remarkable achievement” in Australia’s budget management since they took office. The balance includes the budgets of the states and the commonwealth.

“Our responsible management is ensuring that fiscal policy is taking the pressure off inflation when it is at its highest,” the ministers said in a statement.

“The Albanese government delivered Australia’s first surplus in 15 years in 2022-23, achieving a $100bn turnaround in the forecast inherited from the former government. A second surplus in next month’s budget remains within reach.”

Use of Australia’s overall budget balance is just one gauge of economic management. By net debt, Australia’s tally amounted to 28.3% of GDP in 2023, placing it fourth among the G20 nations that the IMF was able to track.

Still, Australia’s economy has fared better than most counterparts coming out of the Covid-19 pandemic, even if it might not have scaled the heights of 2011, when Euromoney magazine dubbed Wayne Swan – Chalmers’ boss at the time – as the best treasurer in the world.

Australia’s current silver placing among G20 nations may not last long.

On the IMF’s projections, the country will slip to fourth in 2024 for its general government balance – at -1.3% of GDP – even if the commonwealth notches back-to-back budget surpluses of its own. Canada, Korea and even crisis-hit Argentina should deliver better balances this year.

The IMF said that while the global economy was stabilising, many nations would “continue to struggle with the legacies of high debt and deficits while facing new challenges”.

It encouraged more “fiscal tightening” to support the “last mile” of disinflation.

“Slowing growth and financial turbulence in China could weigh on global growth and trade, posing fiscal challenges for countries with strong trade and investment linkages,” the IMF said, without naming nations.

Chalmers said on Wednesday that China, which is easily Australia’s largest market, “has been a big feature of our discussions as we put the budget together”.

“The property sector in China has been a really significant factor in the slowing of the Chinese economy,” Chalmers told ABC’s RN Breakfast. “And obviously given the structure of our economy and our trading relationships with China, we’re not immune from the way that the Chinese economy has slowed considerably.”

Related: Rhetoric with no policy, vision with no detail: Dutton and Albanese have big gaps to fill

The IMF also noted 2024 was shaping up as the “Great Election Year”, with 88 economies or economic areas, representing more than half of the world’s population and GDP, holding elections.

“Support for increased government spending has grown across the political spectrum over the past several decades, making this year especially challenging, as empirical evidence shows that fiscal policy tends to be looser, and slippages larger, during election years,” the IMF said.

Most commentators expect the Albanese government to hold off elections until 2025 when its term expires.