PAKISTAN
Could early warnings have prevented River Swat tragedy?
After 13 lives were lost in a flash flood, officials and experts weigh what could — and should — have been done to prevent the disaster.
Published June 30, 2025
DAWN
THEY came for breakfast and a few photographs, perhaps to capture a happy moment beside the River Swat. But within minutes, the calm waters turned violent, sweeping away an entire family in front of helpless onlookers.
As the surging brown torrents of the swollen river pounded the rocks beneath their feet, 14 tourists — men, women and children — stood huddled together, teetering between fading hope and overwhelming despair.
The family, belonging to Daska tehsil in Sialkot, had stopped for breakfast at Relax Hotel, located at the Fizagat picnic point on the outskirts of Mingora.
After their meal, they ventured onto the riverbed to take photographs. As they snapped selfies and recorded videos, the waters suddenly swelled, trapping them on a raised mound of stones and sand, left behind by quarrying work in the riverbed.
The river’s rapids quickly eroded the small, fragile piece of land beneath them. As bystanders captured the unfolding tragedy on their phones under a grey sky, members of the group began to fall into the torrent, one by one. Within minutes, all were swept away.
After 13 lives were lost in a flash flood, officials and experts weigh what could — and should — have been done to prevent the disaster
The short distance to safety — barely 100 metres — proved unreachable.
The incident has ignited public anger and raised serious questions about the provincial government’s emergency response, early warning systems and disaster preparedness.
Dawn spoke with officials and experts to piece together what really happened in Swat and evaluate the government’s role, the effectiveness of the emergency response, preparedness, and early warning systems.
What happened
Eyewitnesses said the group was stranded for over two hours and no one turned up to rescue them. But officials dispute this claim.
Shah Fahad, director general of Rescue 1122, told Dawn that CCTV footage from the hotel shows the tourists entering the riverbed around 9:37am. “The river was dry then, but within minutes, the water surged. By 9:45am, the river had risen dramatically,” he said.
Mr Fahad said the first call for help was received at 9:49am. However, a fatal miscommunication occurred. The operator misunderstood the nature of the emergency, treating it as a medical issue instead of a rescue operation.
An ambulance was dispatched and arrived at 9:56am. When responders realised they were faced with a river rescue, they requested a different vehicle. A disaster rescue vehicle, carrying generators, inflatable boats and other paraphernalia, was dispatched to the scene, but arrived too late.
He said an investigation was underway to find out whether the delay could have been due to operator error, or the caller’s failure to properly convey the nature of the emergency.
But there are slight variations, even in official records. According to information seen by Dawn, the Swat district administration received its first alert at 9:55am, and a Rescue 1122 ambulance arrived at the scene around 10:07am. Rescue efforts began in earnest at 10:15am with a locally made raft using inflated tubes.
By 10:36am, the eroding riverbed gave way and the stranded tourists were swept into the rapids. Video footage shows a raft, locally called a jaalai, approaching four people clinging to each other in knee-deep water. Official accounts claim three of them were rescued.
Several officials and rescue experts told Dawn the River Swat’s rocky, shallow, fast-flowing nature makes it unsuitable for divers or motorboats. Rescue 1122 has a rope gun capable of launching lines up to 100 metres, but it couldn’t be used as there was no anchor point across the river.
Why no helicopter?
A KP government official said a helicopter rescue was considered, but ultimately ruled out due to bad weather.
An emergency response expert told Dawn that 95 per cent of crisis management is preparedness, and only 5pc is the response. “You don’t send divers unless there’s a high chance of survival — and in this case, there wasn’t.”
He regretted that Swat has seen multiple floods since the 2010 floods, but little has been done in terms of community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM). In contrast, the Kalash valleys in Chitral have such systems in place.
“In 2015, the Bumburet valley faced severe flooding, but no lives were lost because villagers upstream warned those downstream. That’s what CBDRM looks like,” he said.
Early warning systems
Swat district spans over 5,000 square kilometres and has a population of 2.6 million. The Meteorological Department maintains three weather observatories here — in Saidu Sharif, Malam Jabba and Kalam.
On June 23, the KP Provincial Disaster Management Authority issued a weather advisory warning of a westerly wave approaching by June 25. It said the wave was likely to intensify on June 25 and directed authorities to take precautionary measures.
Data from the Met Department shows rainfall on June 27 measured 46mm in Saidu Sharif, 42mm in Malam Jabba and 4mm in Kalam. River gauges installed by the Irrigation Department in Khwazakhela recorded a morning discharge of 6,738 cusecs.
A senior Irrigation Department official told Dawn that Kalam valley was outside of the monsoon zone, which extends across Bahrain, Khwazakhela and Matta tehsils.
Another Irrigation Department official said the flash flood likely originated in Khwazakhela and Matta tehsils, fed by tributaries like Chaprial, Ningolay, Baryam and Shawar. Streams from Manglawar and Malam Jabba also contributed.
A telemetry system at Charbagh was reportedly non-functional, though Swat Executive Engineer Inamullah Khan denied its existence there, stressing that only Khwazakhela has such a system.
Former Swat deputy commissioner Shahzad Mehboob, who was transferred on Saturday, said the flood came too quickly for officials to respond. “Small tributaries of the River Swat swelled, and it reached the site within a very short span of time,” he said.
Yet questions remain: did officials in upstream tehsils — Khwazakhela, Matta, Charbagh and Babuzai — warn Mingora authorities in time? Could such a warning have triggered preventative action, avoiding the loss of lives?
On the evening of the tragedy, the KP government suspended the assistant commissioners of Babuzai and Khwazakhela for a delayed response and failure to issue an early warning. The Additional Deputy Commissioner (Relief) was also suspended for failing to make arrangements.
Some officials questioned why life jackets were not dropped near the stranded tourists. Others criticised the lack of on-ground enforcement, stressing that while alerts were issued, field action was lacking.
Published in Dawn, June 30th, 2025
Header image: Army officials participate in rescue operations, Swat, June 27. — Rescue 1122/File
After 13 lives were lost in a flash flood, officials and experts weigh what could — and should — have been done to prevent the disaster
The short distance to safety — barely 100 metres — proved unreachable.
The incident has ignited public anger and raised serious questions about the provincial government’s emergency response, early warning systems and disaster preparedness.
Dawn spoke with officials and experts to piece together what really happened in Swat and evaluate the government’s role, the effectiveness of the emergency response, preparedness, and early warning systems.
What happened
Eyewitnesses said the group was stranded for over two hours and no one turned up to rescue them. But officials dispute this claim.
Shah Fahad, director general of Rescue 1122, told Dawn that CCTV footage from the hotel shows the tourists entering the riverbed around 9:37am. “The river was dry then, but within minutes, the water surged. By 9:45am, the river had risen dramatically,” he said.
Mr Fahad said the first call for help was received at 9:49am. However, a fatal miscommunication occurred. The operator misunderstood the nature of the emergency, treating it as a medical issue instead of a rescue operation.
An ambulance was dispatched and arrived at 9:56am. When responders realised they were faced with a river rescue, they requested a different vehicle. A disaster rescue vehicle, carrying generators, inflatable boats and other paraphernalia, was dispatched to the scene, but arrived too late.
He said an investigation was underway to find out whether the delay could have been due to operator error, or the caller’s failure to properly convey the nature of the emergency.
But there are slight variations, even in official records. According to information seen by Dawn, the Swat district administration received its first alert at 9:55am, and a Rescue 1122 ambulance arrived at the scene around 10:07am. Rescue efforts began in earnest at 10:15am with a locally made raft using inflated tubes.
By 10:36am, the eroding riverbed gave way and the stranded tourists were swept into the rapids. Video footage shows a raft, locally called a jaalai, approaching four people clinging to each other in knee-deep water. Official accounts claim three of them were rescued.
Several officials and rescue experts told Dawn the River Swat’s rocky, shallow, fast-flowing nature makes it unsuitable for divers or motorboats. Rescue 1122 has a rope gun capable of launching lines up to 100 metres, but it couldn’t be used as there was no anchor point across the river.
Why no helicopter?
A KP government official said a helicopter rescue was considered, but ultimately ruled out due to bad weather.
An emergency response expert told Dawn that 95 per cent of crisis management is preparedness, and only 5pc is the response. “You don’t send divers unless there’s a high chance of survival — and in this case, there wasn’t.”
He regretted that Swat has seen multiple floods since the 2010 floods, but little has been done in terms of community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM). In contrast, the Kalash valleys in Chitral have such systems in place.
“In 2015, the Bumburet valley faced severe flooding, but no lives were lost because villagers upstream warned those downstream. That’s what CBDRM looks like,” he said.
Early warning systems
Swat district spans over 5,000 square kilometres and has a population of 2.6 million. The Meteorological Department maintains three weather observatories here — in Saidu Sharif, Malam Jabba and Kalam.
On June 23, the KP Provincial Disaster Management Authority issued a weather advisory warning of a westerly wave approaching by June 25. It said the wave was likely to intensify on June 25 and directed authorities to take precautionary measures.
Data from the Met Department shows rainfall on June 27 measured 46mm in Saidu Sharif, 42mm in Malam Jabba and 4mm in Kalam. River gauges installed by the Irrigation Department in Khwazakhela recorded a morning discharge of 6,738 cusecs.
A senior Irrigation Department official told Dawn that Kalam valley was outside of the monsoon zone, which extends across Bahrain, Khwazakhela and Matta tehsils.
Another Irrigation Department official said the flash flood likely originated in Khwazakhela and Matta tehsils, fed by tributaries like Chaprial, Ningolay, Baryam and Shawar. Streams from Manglawar and Malam Jabba also contributed.
A telemetry system at Charbagh was reportedly non-functional, though Swat Executive Engineer Inamullah Khan denied its existence there, stressing that only Khwazakhela has such a system.
Former Swat deputy commissioner Shahzad Mehboob, who was transferred on Saturday, said the flood came too quickly for officials to respond. “Small tributaries of the River Swat swelled, and it reached the site within a very short span of time,” he said.
Yet questions remain: did officials in upstream tehsils — Khwazakhela, Matta, Charbagh and Babuzai — warn Mingora authorities in time? Could such a warning have triggered preventative action, avoiding the loss of lives?
On the evening of the tragedy, the KP government suspended the assistant commissioners of Babuzai and Khwazakhela for a delayed response and failure to issue an early warning. The Additional Deputy Commissioner (Relief) was also suspended for failing to make arrangements.
Some officials questioned why life jackets were not dropped near the stranded tourists. Others criticised the lack of on-ground enforcement, stressing that while alerts were issued, field action was lacking.
Published in Dawn, June 30th, 2025
Header image: Army officials participate in rescue operations, Swat, June 27. — Rescue 1122/File
