Unpredictable play helps pick a winner in football ( soccer)

Experts put sport stats to the test

Flinders University

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Football pitch divided into 30 zones.

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Credit: Ishara Bandara (Deakin University)

A comprehensive game plan and strategic tactics are critical to winning football, but how much does a team’s unpredictability in moving the soccer ball around the pitch matter?

In a new article published in PLOS One, an international team of researchers analysed event data from top-tier association football competitions to provide insights into match analysis, player tactics and game strategy.

“Soccer is low-scoring, so a couple of moments can swing a match, and simple statistics like possession or shot counts do not always capture who performed better. Our approach measures how unpredictably and widely a team moves the ball across a match,” says Dr Sergiy Shelyag, Associate Professor in Applied Mathematics and Data Science at Flinders University.

“We found that 'all zones count' metric, the one that values every region of the field equally, including rarely used areas, aligns best with winning.

“Teams that spread their play unpredictably across the full field tend to succeed more than teams that confine their play unpredictability to a few hotspots.”

Using the StatsBomb Open Data dataset, the researchers from Australia and Europe measured how widely and unpredictably teams moved the ball across the field using an information-theoretic metric called Spatial Event Distribution Randomness (EDRan).

In the men’s dataset, higher EDRan was positively associated with winning, and the association weakened toward the end of matches, consistent with winning teams becoming more predictable late in games.

The study also built match-winner prediction models based on the EDRan differences between teams.

In men’s matches, models using the equal-weight, whole-field version of the metric outperformed models based on the commonly used Shannon-entropy formulation, with the best-performing model achieving 80.61% accuracy in predicting match winners.

“A mathematically grounded, information theory-based view suggests that broad, field-wide unpredictability is a stronger path to success than being tricky in the same old places,” concludes Dr Shelyag.

The research group was led by experts at Deakin University’s School of IT and Centre for Sport Research, and the UK universities of Coventry and Aston, Birmingham.

The new article, 'Maximising ball movement unpredictability in Association Football: A R´enyi Entropy-based approach to optimising event distribution randomness' (2026) by Ishara Bandara (Deakin), Sergiy Shelyag, Sutharshan Rajasegarar, Dan Dwyer, Eun-jin Kim and Maia Angelova has been published in PLOS One DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0326800. 

Acknowledgements: The authors thank StatsBomb for providing publicly available event data from association football.

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Journal

PLOS One

DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0326800 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Maximising ball movement unpredictability in Association Football: A R´enyi Entropy-based approach to optimising event distribution randomness'

Article Publication Date

26-Feb-2026

 

Japanese pigmented rice contains unique beneficial fats

Study of 56 japonica rice varieties finds black and green rice to be healthier choices

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Hokkaido University

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The different types of pigmented rice cultivars investigated in this study.

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Credit: Lipsa Rani Nath

Rice feeds more than half of the world’s population, yet we still only partly understand the nutrients it contains. More than 85% of the rice we eat is composed of starch, though it also contains some protein (around 10%), small amounts of fat (roughly 2%), a few vitamins, and trace elements. Because fats, or lipids, make up such a small fraction of rice, they have received relatively little scientific attention despite playing an important role in nutrition, flavor, and grain quality.

To address this gap, researchers at Hokkaido University studied japonica rice varieties, which are short- to medium-grain rice most familiar as Japanese rice. They become soft, tender, and slightly sticky when cooked and account for roughly 15% of global rice consumption. The researchers collected and analyzed 56 japonica rice cultivars from across Japan, including brown, red, green, and black varieties. Their findings were published in the journal Food Research International in January 2026.

“Although lipids make up only a small proportion of rice, they are critical in determining its nutritional value,” explains lead author Associate Professor Siddabasave Gowda. “They help maintain cell membrane integrity, store energy, and support essential signaling processes in the body.”

Thanks to advances in analytical technologies, such as liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry, scientists can now study dietary lipids in food in far greater detail than before. Using these tools, they identified 196 different types of lipid molecules belonging to five major groups in a comprehensive analysis of japonica rice varieties.

The team also discovered that colorful Japanese rice varieties, particularly black and green rice, have a higher health-promotion index due to their unique lipid composition. They contain potentially beneficial fats, including compounds known as FAHMFAs (fatty acid esters of hydroxy medium-chain fatty acids) and LNAPEs (N-acyl-lysophosphatidylethanolamines). These lipids have previously been linked to anti-inflammatory effects and improved metabolic health in certain biological systems. This is the first time FAHMFAs have been identified in rice.

The researchers studied how these pigmented rice varieties affect blood sugar. They did this by simulating human digestion in the laboratory. Selected rice samples were cooked and then exposed to digestive enzymes to measure how quickly their starches broke down, an indicator of how sharply each type of rice can raise a person’s blood sugar level after a meal.

Black and green japonica rice produced a slower rise in blood sugar levels compared with typical white rice. This suggests that they contain starch that is digested more slowly and released into the bloodstream more gradually. As a result, these pigmented rice varieties could be used to make food products that support heart health, help manage blood sugar, and reduce the risk of lifestyle-related conditions such as type 2 diabetes.

This study builds on the researchers’ broader efforts to characterize previously unknown bioactive lipids using advanced analytical techniques. “Our research group has discovered novel bioactive lipids in Japanese dietary fish, herbal teas, and seaweeds,” Gowda adds, “helping to shed light on Japan’s underexplored lipid-rich food resources.”

“People may be interested in learning about the health benefits of different pigmented rice varieties and, based on this knowledge, choosing the type that best suits their needs,” says Gowda. “We also hope our findings will support the development of new ‘functional’ rice products to better manage diabetes and other lifestyle-related diseases.”

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Journal

Food Research International

DOI

10.1016/j.foodres.2025.117895 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Lipidomic profiling of 56 japonica rice cultivars and identification of novel fatty acid esters of hydroxy fatty acids Author links open overlay panel

 

Professor Jo Woon Chong’s team at Sungkyunkwan University uncovered the secret of luxury brand fragrances through EEG (brainwave) analysis

Consumers’ memory and emotional resonance are maximized when a fragrance aligns with the brand image •A convergence study integrating engineering, consumer science, and medical science

Sungkyunkwan University External Affairs Division (PR team)

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Paradoxical Effects of Scent Congruence in Luxury Brand Extensions

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Credit: Professor CHONG, JOWOON, Sungkyunkwan University.

Sungkyunkwan University (President Ji-beom Yoo) announced that a research team led by Professor Jo Woon Chong of the School of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, in collaboration with researchers from Texas Tech University in the United States, has identified, through EEG (electroencephalogram) analysis, the impact of “fragrance” on consumers’ emotions, memory, and deep emotional bonds with luxury brands. Going beyond conventional survey-based approaches, this study has drawn significant attention from both academia and industry by employing neuroscientific methods that measure human brain responses in real time. The research findings are scheduled to be published in the March 2026 issue of the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services (top 2% in JCR), one of the world’s most prestigious journals in the fields of business and retailing.

 

Professor Chong, who has led research at Sungkyunkwan University on human-centered AI and multimodal signal processing to bridge engineering and consumer experience, oversaw the EEG-based experimental design and data analysis framework in this study. From a neuroscientific perspective, Professor Chong systematically analyzed the effects of olfactory stimuli on consumers’ brain responses and brand perception, scientifically demonstrating that scent is one of the most intuitive yet powerful senses shaping brand experience. He explained the significance of the research by stating, “Olfaction is closely connected to brain regions responsible for emotion and memory,” and added, “This study clearly shows, through EEG data, how the harmony between fragrance and brand image creates meaningful differences in consumers’ emotional responses and memory formation.”

 

The research team designed and conducted experiments that closely simulated real luxury brand environments, carefully comparing conditions in which a fragrance was congruent with the brand image and those in which it was not. Results from EEG analysis and quantitative survey data showed that when fragrance and brand image were well aligned, consumers’ brains exhibited emotional stability, while brand memory, favorability, and the sense of “brand resonance,” feeling a unity between the consumer and the brand, were enhanced overall. In contrast, when a fragrance did not match the brand image, immediate emotional responses such as pleasure were observed; however, these responses were less likely to translate into positive brand evaluations or long-term memory. Nevertheless, the study also found that such incongruent conditions could leave consumers with a strong and unexpected impression, suggesting that scent strategies have the potential to fundamentally alter how brands are perceived.

 

This study is particularly significant as the outcome of a global, interdisciplinary collaboration among experts in engineering, consumer science, and medical science from South Korea and the United States. In addition to Professor Chong’s team, the research involved Professor Hyo Jung Chang and doctoral student, Sanghee Kim from the Department of Hospitality and Retail Management at Texas Tech University, as well as Dr. Bengie Ortiz from the University of Michigan Health, ensuring strong interdisciplinary expertise. Based on these findings, the research team presents scientific evidence for the importance of an “Olfactory Identity Strategy,” in which companies go beyond simply using pleasant scents to deliberately design fragrances that align with a brand’s identity. This approach is expected to serve as a new milestone for designing sensory-based brand experiences not only in the luxury sector but across a wide range of industries.

 

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Journal

Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services

DOI

10.1016/j.jretconser.2025.104663 

Article Title

The role of scent congruence with luxury brand image in consumers’ emotions, memory, and brand resonance: A mixed-methods approach using EEG and quantitative analyses

 

Collagen benefits skin but not performance - study

New paper most comprehensive to date into health effects of collagen supplements

Anglia Ruskin University

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The most comprehensive study to date into the health effects of collagen supplements found benefits for skin health and significant relief from osteoarthritis symptoms – but no meaningful improvements in sports performance.

 

Collagen supplements have surged in popularity in recent years, driven by claims relating to anti ageing, beauty and wellbeing. The new umbrella review, published in the Aesthetic Surgery Journal Open Forum, brings together evidence from 16 systematic reviews, 113 randomised controlled trials and almost 8,000 participants around the world.

 

The research team from Anglia Ruskin University (ARU), carried out the first integrated meta-analysis and meta-regression across all major health domains associated with collagen intake.

 

This allowed the researchers to identify dose-dependent and duration-dependent effects, revealing for example that longer supplementation is linked with greater improvements in skin elasticity and hydration and osteoarthritis outcomes, including reduced pain and stiffness.

 

The study also identified modest benefits for muscle mass, muscle architecture and tendon structure, offering further support for the role of collagen in healthy ageing.

However, the research found no meaningful improvements in post-exercise muscle recovery, soreness or tendon mechanical properties, suggesting that collagen should not be viewed as a fast-acting sports performance supplement.

 

The researchers examined evidence relating to oral health and cardiometabolic indicators such as cholesterol, blood pressure and blood sugar. In these areas, results were mixed or inconclusive, with little strong evidence that collagen meaningfully improves metabolic health, gum disease or aesthetic outcomes in dentistry.

 

The study also highlights how more recent trials have produced stronger results in some areas, reflecting improvements in product formulation and research quality.

 

Lee Smith, Professor of Public Health at Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) and co author of the study, said: “This study brings together the strongest evidence to date on collagen supplementation.

 

“Collagen is not a cure all, but it does have credible benefits when used consistently over time, particularly for skin and osteoarthritis. Our findings show clear benefits in key areas of healthy ageing, while also dispelling some of the myths surrounding its use.

 

“This study marks an important step towards more informed public guidance and better designed future research. We need more high-quality clinical trials, including research examining long term health outcomes, optimal dosing and differences between collagen sources.”

 

The study was a collaboration between Professor Smith of ARU and Dr Roshan Ravindran of KLNIK.

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Journal

Aesthetic Surgery Journal

DOI

10.1093/asjof/ojag018/8446510 

Method of Research

Literature review

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Collagen Supplementation for Skin and Musculoskeletal Health: An Umbrella Review of Meta-analyses on Elasticity, Hydration, and Structural Outcomes