Saturday, March 14, 2026

This Ohio Factory is Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth War

The fight for geopolitical supremacy is increasingly a fight over rare earths — the critical elements that power advanced defense systems, high-performance manufacturing, and next-generation energy technologies. REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is already operating in the most strategic segment of that chain, converting heavy rare earth materials into high-performance magnets and alloys inside the United States.

For Washington, the challenge is not geology — it’s processing. Many Western companies are still in early exploration or planning stages. REalloys, by contrast, runs a functioning facility in Euclid, Ohio, where heavy rare earth feedstock is refined and transformed into specialized alloys required for defense and advanced industrial use. By keeping processing onshore, the company eliminates the offshore refining bottleneck, effectively disabling China’s ability to blackmail the U.S.

The very components that determine performance in missiles, aircraft, EV motors, satellites, and critical infrastructure can soon be fabricated in North America. REalloys bridges the gap between separated oxides and the metal inputs required to produce those magnets, already supplying qualified materials under U.S. Department of Defense contracts as domestic sourcing rules tighten.

Rare earth magnets sit at the end of this chain — the high-performance components that enable precision-guided munitions, advanced aircraft systems, EV drivetrains, satellites, and critical industrial infrastructure.

Many of the technologies built by major U.S. manufacturers — including electric vehicle platforms developed by Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and the AI and data-center hardware ecosystem surrounding NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) — depend on high-performance rare earth magnets that allow motors, cooling systems, and precision components to operate efficiently under demanding conditions

REalloys occupies the pivotal step just before that final assembly, converting separated oxides into the specialized metals and alloys magnet manufacturers depend on. As U.S. sourcing rules tighten, the company is already delivering qualified materials under Department of Defense contracts, positioning it as an operational link in America’s domestic rare earth supply chain.

What the DoD Needs — And Why It's Urgent

The U.S. military is actively partnering with REalloys for rare earth metals and alloys that feed into current operational programs. The company manufactures defense-specification metal and alloy domestically, built to the exact chemistry already embedded in active program supply chains. When procurement rules shift in 2027 and Chinese-origin material is disqualified, REalloys' output stays compliant with zero reformulation required. No other supplier in North America is currently producing the same grade of qualified heavy rare earth metals and alloys.

Heavy rare earths are what allow modern missile and aerospace platforms to perform reliably under punishing conditions. Dysprosium and terbium are blended into magnet alloys specifically to maintain magnetic performance as temperatures climb and vibration intensifies.

This is what makes heavy rare earths indispensable to systems like precision-guided missiles and missile-defense interceptors. Dysprosium and terbium aren't optional additives — they are required inputs for these weapons platforms.

REalloys' Position in the Rare Earth Supply Chain

Cut through the noise, and the domestic rare earth picture narrows quickly. The vast majority of U.S.-based players remain stuck in the early stages — mining, oxide separation, pilot programs, and slide decks. REalloys sits at the opposite end of the value chain, occupying the downstream processing stage where supply chains are either real or they aren't.

The company holds a signed commercial processing and long-term offtake deal with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC), anchored to the SRC Rare Earth Processing Facility in Saskatoon. That agreement gives REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) access to 80% of the facility's upgraded annual output under a cost-plus pricing structure. Heavy rare earth production from the expanded facility is on track to come online in early 2027 — a milestone that would make REalloys the sole commercial-scale North American source of dysprosium and terbium oxides.

To support that expansion, the company is investing roughly US$21 million to boost heavy rare earth processing throughput by approximately 300%, while also lifting light rare earth (NdPr) capacity by 50%. Target output includes up to 30 tonnes of dysprosium oxide, 15 tonnes of terbium oxide, and 400 tonnes per year of high-purity NdPr metal — with NdPr scaling to 600 tonnes annually once the expansion wraps up. Initial production is expected early next year.

Building a Diversified Feedstock Pipeline

Letters of intent are already in place covering feedstock supply from KazakhstanBrazil, and Greenland

In Kazakhstan, REalloys has locked in a non-binding long-term offtake deal with AltynGroup covering rare earth feedstock that includes both light and heavy elements — dysprosium and terbium among them. Critically, that material flows straight into the company's U.S.-based metals and alloy production rather than being shipped offshore for processing.

On the Brazilian side, a signed offtake memorandum with St George Mining provides potential access to as much as 40% of rare earth output from the Araxá project, pending finalization of definitive terms.

And in Greenland, a 10-year offtake arrangement — currently at the LOI stage — would deliver up to 15% of annual rare earth concentrate production from the Tanbreez project.

All of these supply streams ultimately point toward one customer: the U.S. Department of Defense.

The Euclid, Ohio Processing Hub

REalloys' facility in Euclid, Ohio is built to take separated rare earth oxides and reduce them into metal under controlled atmospheric conditions, then alloy the resulting material into compositions suitable for magnet production. The same metallurgical workflow handles both light and heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium. What comes out the other end is pre-alloyed metal — chemistry locked in early in the process and maintained within the narrow tolerances that qualified magnet producers require. Functionally, Euclid occupies the critical space between oxide separation and finished magnet assembly, the exact point where rare earth materials transition from intermediates into production-ready inputs.

The finished product moves through standard commercial channels and feeds directly into magnets and components destined for DoD programs.

Rebuilding a Lost Capability Under Pressure

For the first time in a generation, the United States is attempting to reconstruct its rare earth processing infrastructure — and it's doing so while China actively squeezes the processed materials that underpin both weapons systems and industrial output.

The core problem is deceptively simple: outside of China, virtually no one can convert rare earth oxides into finished metal at industrial scale. That conversion step is precisely where Western supply chains went dark decades ago.

That bottleneck doesn’t only affect defense programs. It also threatens supply chains tied to some of the largest technology and industrial companies in the United States, including the electric vehicle manufacturing ecosystem around Tesla and the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure market driven by chips from NVIDIA.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has flagged rare earth metallization and alloying as the weakest and hardest-to-restore link in any non-Chinese supply chain. In CSIS's assessment, metal and alloy production represents an experience-based bottleneck — a capability that resists shortcuts, even when capital is abundant. Metallization expertise is accumulated through sustained operational history, not assembled on a timeline. Reaching consistent, magnet-grade quality can take years, sometimes decades. You can fast-track a mine. You cannot fast-track metallization.

This is exactly where REalloys operates. While the rest of the Western rare earth sector largely tops out at oxide production or pilot-stage separation, the Euclid facility is running the conversion process that CSIS singles out as the most difficult to replicate. Oxides go in, metal comes out, alloys are formulated, and chemistry stays within specs that downstream buyers have already qualified. This isn't a future capability — it's an active one, running inside a U.S. facility and feeding usable material into defense and magnet supply chains today.

That kind of operational capability is scarce precisely because the country walked away from it a generation ago, and reconstituting it demands time that no amount of funding can compress. It's here now, at Euclid, and it defines the outer boundary of what America's rare earth rebuild — and by extension, its defense and industrial capacity — can actually deliver.

By. Josh Owens


US pours $1B into into Latin America critical minerals


Lithium ponds in Chile’s Atacama desert. (Stock image by freedom_wanted.)

The United States has poured more than $1 billion into critical minerals investments across Latin America since January 2025, signalling a more assertive effort by Washington to secure supplies of lithium, copper and rare earths vital to energy, defence and advanced technology.

The spending surge under the second Trump administration reflects a broader shift in how governments view mining, with critical minerals increasingly treated as matters of national and energy security rather than simply commodities tied to the energy transition, according to a report by law firm White & Case.

The law firm’s global head of mining and metals Rebecca Campbell and project financing partner Fernando J. de la Hoz say projects in Brazil and Argentina are drawing direct interest from US agencies and multilateral lenders through loans, equity stakes and structured offtake agreements designed to channel output into US-aligned supply chains.

“Development of rare earth and critical minerals projects is no longer just a matter of energy transition, but rather, energy security,” Tiago Abreu, chief development officer of Brazilian Rare Earths, told delegates at a mining summit in Belo Horizonte in June 2025.

Recent financing underscores the trend. The Inter-American Development Bank approved a $100 million loan for a $2.5 billion lithium project in Argentina, while the US Development Finance Corporation is considering a $465 million investment to expand Serra Verde’s rare earth operations in Brazil’s Goiás state.

Latin America sits at the centre of the strategic push, holding roughly 60% of the world’s lithium reserves.

Lithium momentum

Brazil and Argentina have emerged as focal points for critical minerals development, driven by vast reserves, government policy and rising foreign investment.

Brazil hosts the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves after China and has seen growing interest in Minas Gerais, where a cluster of projects has earned the nickname “Lithium Valley.” Despite holding about 23.3% of global rare earth reserves, the country accounts for only about 0.02% of production, highlighting the scale of potential growth.

Argentina has moved aggressively to attract investment. The Incentive Regime for Large Investments, or RIGI, launched in July 2024, offers tax, customs and foreign exchange stability for projects worth more than $200 million. Rio Tinto (ASX, LON: RIO) became the first company approved under the framework in May 2025 for a $2.5 billion lithium project in Salta.

The country already hosts Latin America’s largest number of lithium projects, with seven operating. National lithium output capacity rose from 75,500 tonnes per year in 2023 to about 186,000 tonnes in 2025, and the government expects it to reach 658,000 tonnes by 2035.

Market conditions are also improving after a prolonged downturn. Battery-grade lithium carbonate traded near $18,200 per tonne in early January 2026, rebounding as grid-scale energy storage systems expand even as the global energy transition progresses more slowly than early projections suggested.

Geopolitical balancing

While US investment is accelerating project development, Latin American governments continue to balance geopolitical interests between Washington and Beijing.

Chinese companies remain dominant in mineral processing, particularly rare earths, where more than 90% of global processing occurs in China. Campbell and de la Hoz say governments across the region remain pragmatic, welcoming investment from both sides as they seek capital and technical expertise to develop mineral resources.

Inter-American Development Bank president Ilan Goldfajn said in December that countries across the political spectrum are focused on building domestic processing capacity to capture more value from their resources.

“We are hearing from countries from left to right, independent of political inclination, that this is the moment to increase the value added to their critical minerals,” Goldfajn told the Financial Times.

Geopolitics is increasingly influencing mining transactions and regulatory approvals. Campbell and de la Hoz point to MMG’s proposed acquisition of Anglo American’s nickel assets in Brazil, now undergoing a Phase II merger review by European regulators, as an example of how decisions in Brussels or Washington can shape mining deals thousands of kilometres away.

Critical minerals are also gaining strategic importance beyond clean energy. Defence, aerospace and advanced technology sectors are driving demand for secure supply chains, prompting some mining companies in Latin America to align projects with US strategic priorities to secure financing and long-term markets.

Domestic policy changes are also reshaping the investment landscape. Argentina has moved quickly to simplify regulations and attract foreign capital, while Brazil’s reforms have been more incremental and in some cases have increased compliance requirements.

Political risk and community engagement remain key factors shaping project timelines. Resource nationalism, environmental permitting and bureaucratic hurdles continue to influence development schedules even as government-backed financing reduces some investment risk.

Copper in driver’s seat

Copper is expected to remain the primary driver of mining investment across Latin America. Chile and Argentina are advancing major copper projects as global demand for the metal — essential for electrification and power grids — is projected to nearly double by 2035.

Several copper projects in Chile alone are expected to begin operating next year with combined investment exceeding $7 billion, reinforcing the metal’s central role in regional mining strategies.

For Campbell and de la Hoz, the surge in lithium and critical minerals investment reflects a broader shift in the global mining landscape, where geology, government policy and geopolitical strategy increasingly determine where projects move forward.

———

Latin America is heading into 2026 with resources at the centre of a growing global power struggle, as governments and investors focus on who controls critical minerals and the supply chains behind them. If the region matters to you, don’t miss MINING.COM’s new series tracking the geopolitical forces reshaping it and why markets are increasingly driven by global alliances as much as local politics.

US critical minerals talks advance with EU, Japan on price floor


The White House. Stock image.

The US, Japan and the European Union are set to announce plans in the coming weeks to lay the foundation for a trade agreement in critical minerals, according to people familiar with the preparations.

The Office of the US Trade Representative, which has led negotiations with Brussels and Tokyo on the framework, will also head talks for a trade deal that is set to include a price floor and tariffs for the materials to counter any market distortions by China, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Global efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains intensified after Beijing last year imposed sweeping export controls, including on rare earths and critical minerals, in response to President Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariffs, which set a 10% levy on nearly all American imports.

Beijing has threatened it would retaliate against the formation of a bloc that would target its exports.

The supply crunch has eased somewhat since its worst point last summer and fall, but companies still complain that they don’t receive the quantities they need and have ordered from Chinese suppliers.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is aiming to start negotiations for a trade agreement with the EU and Japan in critical minerals in April, shortly after a comment period for stakeholders to weigh in ends on March 19, according to the people.

A price floor would set a minimum price for producers to incentivize investment and prevent any efforts to undercut the deal with cheaper exports from China. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is lending expertise to USTR’s efforts to help come up with a pricing mechanism, the people said.

The announcement of the US-Japan plan could coincide with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to White House March 19, one of the people said. The EU’s timing is still being worked out but Brussels and Tokyo are closely coordinating on the contents of the plans.

The topic is also on the agenda for this year’s Group of Seven summit, the people said.

A USTR spokeswoman and Japan’s Trade Ministry declined to comment. EU spokesman Olof Gill said “the work to develop this action plan is ongoing, and the Commission is working closely with Japan, while remaining also in close contact with other global partners.”

Mexico is so far the only country that signed an action plan with the US in early February. The two sides agreed within 60 days to “discuss the feasibility and development of coordinated trade policies and mechanisms, including border-adjusted price floors for critical minerals imports, focusing in the first instance on certain select critical minerals to be determined,” according to the plan.

Provisions may include technical and regulatory cooperation, investment promotion and screening, research and development of new critical minerals technologies and coordinated stockpiling, among others.

The action plans between the EU, Japan and the US will closely resemble the document signed by Mexico, the people said.

In a joint press statement on Feb. 4, the European Commission, the Trump administration and the Japanese government said: “Such a plurilateral trade initiative could include exploring the development of coordinated trade policies and mechanisms, such as border-adjusted price floors, standards-based markets, price gap subsidies, or offtake-agreements.”

The scope of the agreement and which countries will join the push is still to be determined. Officials are assessing which critical minerals to start with and then build upon that agreement to eventually expand the scope to most or all of the minerals, the people said.

The US State Department has pursued separate bilateral memorandums of understanding with countries, including the EU and Japan.

(By Jenny Leonard)

  

Zimbabwe’s Surprise Lithium Ban Scrambles Global Battery Supply Chains

  • Zimbabwe fast-tracked a ban on raw lithium exports to encourage domestic refining and keep more profits from the battery metals boom within the country.

  • The sudden policy shift has triggered chaotic mining activity, stockpiling, and disruptions to Chinese battery supply chains that rely heavily on Zimbabwean spodumene.

  • The move reflects a broader geopolitical shift as resource-rich nations seek greater control over critical minerals needed for the global energy transition.

This week, Zimbabwe took a historic step to protect its own value chains from external exploitation by fast-tracking a ban on raw lithium exports, effective until further notice – and the impacts have been widespread both domestically and abroad. The February 25 ban was immediate and unexpected, as were its impacts on global battery supply chains and local mining operations. 

Originally, the export ban was planned for January 2027, with the intent of incentivizing the local processing and refining of lithium instead of leaving value additions – and their associated profits – to importing nations. Zimbabwe is the largest producer of lithium in Africa, and has some of the largest proven lithium reserves in the world, according to figures from the US Geological Survey (USGS).

Africa is rich in resources central to the clean energy transition. While this opens up a world of opportunity for many developing economies around the continent, it also comes with significant tradeoffs, including energy autonomy and the ability to keep the profits from African primary resources within Africa, where they are sorely needed. African leaders are faced with a dilemma – accepting international investment in exchange for exporting energy resources needed within Africa, or taking the much more difficult, costly, and time-consuming option of building up homegrown value chains. 

Unfortunately, Zimbabwe’s surprise ban has had some unintended negative consequences on the ground. "Regrettably, in the period following that announcement, we witnessed an unprecedented and unacceptable scramble," Zimbabwe information ministry's Nick Mangwana said in a statement on social media. "Instead of preparing for value addition, some actors engaged in a frenzy of mining activity, seeking to extract and export as much raw lithium as possible before the deadline," he went on to say.

According to a report from Africa News, some insiders also report that large quantities of lithium have been "illicitly stockpiled in a neighbouring country."  Mangwana has denounced this tactic as a "plunder" of Zimbabwe's "economic future". 

The move has also had immediate ramifications for Chinese battery manufacturers and global lithium-ion battery value chains, especially already-volatile EV markets. Historically, most of Zimbabwe’s lithium exports have gone to Chinese markets, and the South African nation has become “a critical supplier to China’s lithium ecosystem” according to Business Insider Africa. 

“For China, which dominates global lithium processing and battery manufacturing, the policy shift represents a direct supply shock,” the Business Insider report states. “Despite its midstream dominance, China remains dependent on imported hard-rock spodumene concentrate, sourced largely from Africa and Australia, to feed its vast refining capacity.”

China has been working hard to establish dominance in clean energy supply chains in emerging economies for years now. Influence in developing countries rich in primary energy manufacturing materials is a central pillar of China’s energy security strategy and its mission to become the world’s first electro-state as well as the “center of gravity for global energy markets.” 

The spread of China’s influence has been rapid, extreme, and shadowy across the African continent. A 2025 report from the China Global South Project (CGSP) revealed that “in the years between 2020 and 2024, Chinese companies and financiers have been involved in 84 energy projects across the continent, with a combined capacity of more than 32 gigawatts – enough electricity to light up over 135 million urban African homes, or more than half a billion rural homes, every year,” CGSP summarizes.

But exporting all that potential to China presents a huge issue for Africa’s energy future. Today, approximately 600 million people in Africa lack access to electricity, and the continent’s energy demand is expected to increase by a factor of three over the next decade as sub-Saharan Africa grows, develops, and industrializes. Meeting projected demand will require power generation capacity to increase tenfold by 2065.

Some critics argue that Zimbabwe’s decision to try to homeshore value chains has come too late, but the move is in line with a much larger shift in global geopolitics. “While China maintains a commanding position in refining and battery production, upstream resource holders are increasingly asserting leverage,” reports Business Insider Africa.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

Rio Tinto slows Quebec lithium plant build, timeline intact


The Becancour plant in Quebec. Image supplied by Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto (ASX, LSE: RIO) will slow the construction of its Nemaska lithium processing plant in Quebec due to rising costs, but sees no major changes to the timeline to production.

In the coming months, the company plans to slow the pace of plant build to allow the project team to complete the optimization work, the Australian miner said in a statement on Friday. During that period, its contractual workforce is expected to be reduced.

In an emailed statement to MINING.COM, Rio Tinto said while its contractual workforce will be reduced by half, the company will still have several hundred workers to continue work on the project.

The update comes just weeks after the Australian miner gained control over Nemaska — which includes the proposed lithium hydroxide conversion plant in Bécancour — in a bid to expand its battery materials business.

The facility is currently about 70% complete and is projected to have an annual production capacity of 32,000 tonnes.

In mid-February, Rio Tinto increased its ownership of Nemaska to 53.9% — thus becoming its majority owner — and said it plans to invest $300 million on the Quebec lithium operation. The Quebec government, which holds the remaining 46.1%, also pledged to invest $200 million in Nemaska.

Commissioning of the Bécancour plant was initially planned for this year, with first production expected in 2028.

Timeline intact

According to Rio Tinto, the reduction in workforce is not expected to cause a major change in the project’s timeline. Some activities at the Bécancour site will continue, while others will be paused or deferred.

“Rio Tinto remains fully committed to the Bécancour project and to Québec, which is a critical hub for its global lithium growth strategy,” it stated.

Earlier, a source cited by Bloomberg said that building of the lithium facility is expected to fully restart in 2027.

The Bécancour site is part of Nemaska’s fully integrated spodumene-to-lithium project in Québec, anchored by the Whabouchi deposit in the James Bay region. It is designed to be a 26-year, open-pit and underground operation producing 200,000 tonnes of concentrates annually.

Rio Tinto, which entered the project through its acquisition of Arcadium a year ago, is currently reviewing whether the Whabouchi deposit presents the optimal spodumene supply strategy for Bécancour in comparison to its Galaxy hard rock lithium project, also in James Bay.

The evaluation is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026, it noted. Bloomberg said earlier that the company is leaning towards the Galaxy project.

How a Texas Oil Belt Became America's Next Lithium Frontier

  • Soaring global demand and rising prices for lithium are fueling a resurgence in worldwide extraction efforts, with major geopolitical implications as the US seeks to ease its reliance on China's dominant supply chain.

  • Northeast Texas is poised for a domestic lithium boom due to massive deposits in the Smackover Formation, attracting major energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, who plan to start production as soon as 2027.

  • The rush to extract lithium domestically presents significant trade-offs, including major threats to public and environmental health from the water-intensive process and potential for leaching toxins into freshwater resources.

2026 is shaping up to be a ‘hot year for lithium.’ The metal, which is sometimes referred to as ‘white gold’ due to skyrocketing demand for the stuff, is integral in the production of all kinds of technology and clean energy manufacturing. You probably have at least one lithium-ion battery within arms reach at this very moment inside of your phone or smartwatch or any number of other rechargeable devices. 

And while lithium prices have been volatile for years as producers struggle to match production with demand growth, they are now on the rise. “What happens next could have big implications for mining and battery technology,” reports the MIT Technology Review. Higher lithium prices mean that there will be a resurgence in the worldwide race for extraction, with major implications for global geopolitics.

At present, China dominates global lithium supply chains. Beijing controls an estimated 72 percent of the global lithium-ion market, and Chinese companies control a quarter of the world’s lithium mining capacity. Even more striking, in 2024, more than 80 percent of battery cells on the planet were made in China, raising major questions and concerns as to geopolitical risk and market resilience in tech supply chains.

The United States has been seeking to ease its reliance on Chinese lithium and friendshore its supply chains for years now, but forging trade relationships with major lithium producers in South America has proven difficult. Rising lithium prices will make it more feasible and worthwhile for companies outside of China to start their own extraction operations and diversify the global market, opening new opportunity for a North American lithium boom. 

The United States is home to considerable lithium supplies, it's just a matter of building up a domestic industry around the metal’s extraction and processing. Currently, there is only one operating lithium mine in the United States, the Silver Peak mine in Nevada’s Esmeralda County. But that is going to change in a hurry as the Trump administration and the domestic sector rush to build up a U.S.-based lithium industry.

That goal could soon totally transform Northeast Texas, which sits atop massive natural deposits of the white gold. “The Smackover Formation, which broadly sweeps from East Texas to Florida and once gushed with oil, is now being hailed as containing some of the purest lithium brine in the world,” the Dallas Morning News reported this week. 

And the private sector is taking notice. “Already, some of the world’s largest energy companies, like ExxonMobil and Chevron, have staked claim to portions of the Smackover Formation, announcing drilling and large acquisitions of land,” The Dallas Morning News continued. ExxonMobil plans to produce lithium starting in 2027. 

While this could prove beneficial for the nation’s energy autonomy and for local economies in need of jobs as the shale revolution cools down, there are some major trade-offs associated with homeshoring lithium extraction. Lithium extract poses significant threats to public and environmental health thanks to the toxic chemicals and heavy metals involved in the process. Not only is lithium extraction an extremely water-intensive operation, it also poses significant risk to freshwater resources in the form of leaching toxins into the soil and water table. 

Plus, there is concern that the lithium boom may not offer long-term prosperity to Northeast Texas. “Businessmen are quick to assure residents that the race for lithium isn’t a gold rush or boom-and-bust scenario, but some have admitted the early stages, including landmen knocking on doors for leasing, has felt a little like the Wild West,” reports the Dallas Morning News. 

With the historic volatility of lithium prices, there is cause for concern that the white gold rush will be short lived in the United States. If so, the environmental and health hazards associated with a lithium boom could outlast the financial benefits by far.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com 

 

S&P downgrades Botswana as diamond sector faces global headwinds


(Image courtesy of De Beers.)

S&P Global Ratings on Friday cut Botswana’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to “BBB-” from “BBB,” citing structural weakness in the global diamond market that will weigh on the country’s minerals-dependent economy for longer than expected.

The ratings agency also lowered the country’s short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to “A-3” from “A-2” and maintained its negative outlook.

The downgrade reflects mounting pressure on Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of natural rough diamonds, as the sector that historically represented about 70% of exports and one-third of government revenue faces unprecedented challenges from synthetic diamonds and weak Chinese demand.

“Barring a significant policy adjustment or a strong recovery in global diamond demand, we project Botswana will post sizable fiscal deficits through 2029, putting further pressures on debt metrics,” the agency said in a statement.

Lab-grown diamonds have captured 20% of the global market by value and up to 50% by volume in the US engagement ring segment, while natural diamond sales face headwinds from weak Chinese demand, US tariffs, shifting consumer preferences toward gold jewelry and weaker luxury spending.

Debswana, Botswana’s main diamond mining company, cut production at some mines in 2025 and temporarily closed others. The downturn since the second half of 2023 led to a 27% cut in production to 17.9 million carats in 2024, falling further to 15.1 million carats in 2025.

The company expects to maintain production at 15 million carats in 2026, about 40% below its 2023 output, with only slight increases projected for 2027 and 2028.

S&P forecast Botswana’s economy to grow only 2.5% in 2026 following contractions of 2.8% in 2024 and 0.4% in 2025. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 8.9% of GDP in 2026/27, only slightly improved from 9.3% the previous year.

(By Dhanush Vignesh Babu; Editing by Sahal Muhammed)

 

South African mining exploration falls for seventh straight year


Stock image.

South Africa’s investment in mineral exploration dropped for a seventh consecutive year, despite the government’s ambitions to arrest the decline.

While the country is Africa’s largest exporter of mineral products, companies are spending ever smaller amounts on prospecting to identify and define the mines of the future. Nations like Zambia and Democratic Republic of Congo attract a greater share of exploration capital that’s allocated to the continent.

Exploration spending in South Africa fell 5.3% to 738 rand ($43.9 million) in 2025, according to data published this week by the government’s statistics agency using 2015 constant prices. Investment in prospecting has slumped more than 85% in the past three decades, the data show.

Minerals Council South Africa – the mining sector’s main lobby group – last month described exploration as the industry’s “lifeblood.” Dwindling investment “is deeply troubling for our sector and it needs urgent attention,” said the organization whose members include Valterra Platinum Ltd, Harmony Gold Mining Co. and Exxaro Resources Ltd.

An underdeveloped junior mining and exploration industry is leading to the “effective collapse of the sector’s project pipeline,” according to a recent paper from the Cape Town-based Economic Research Southern Africa. The government could revitalize prospecting by offering tax rebates, establishing a transparent database of available mining rights and increasing funding for geological mapping, it said.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources published a new strategy last year which prioritizes restoring South Africa’s share of global exploration spending to 5%, up from current levels below 1%.

Despite gloom around the mining industry’s prospects in South Africa, the country remains a leading producer of multiple commodities including coal, gold, iron ore, manganese, chrome and platinum-group metals. Total mineral sales jumped 7.3% last year to 861 billion rand.

(By William Clowes)

 

South African union vows to fight job cuts at Samancor smelter after energy deal

Stock image.

South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers vowed on Wednesday to fight planned job cuts at ferrochrome smelter Samancor, which could affect 2,400 employees despite a more than 50% electricity price reduction meant to avert job losses.

State-owned power utility Eskom announced the price cut for Samancor and Glencore’s joint venture with Merafe Resources late last month after the distressed firms agreed in December to shelve planned job cuts while negotiating with the electricity provider.

Their electricity costs had risen tenfold since 2008, exacerbating the smelters’ problems as they face growing competition from Chinese producers.

Samancor has, however, resumed procedures to lay off workers, while the Glencore-Merafe JV said it had deferred its own job cuts to March 31.

“This move comes as a devastating blow to the workforce, particularly after NUM fought tirelessly to negotiate for lower electricity tariffs to ensure the sustainability of the company’s operations,” the union said in a statement.

“The union remains committed to challenging this and will explore all available avenues to save the jobs of our members,” it added.

South Africa’s labour laws require companies to consult unions before implementing job cuts.

Samancor said it would start talks with unions representing workers across its operations in the next few weeks.

“While the reduced tariff addresses immediate electricity cost pressures, the current terms and conditions underpinning it continue to pose a threat to the long-term viability of the ferrochrome industry,” Samancor said in a response to a Reuters query.

The company did not disclose details of those conditions.

The proposed layoffs will impact approximately 2,400 employees across the company’s smelting and corporate offices, Samancor said.

The government says only 11 out of South Africa’s 66 smelters are operational, mainly due to high electricity costs.

Africa’s most advanced economy and the world’s biggest chrome ore producer, South Africa has lost its position as the top global processor of chrome into ferrochrome to China.

Energy-intensive smelters combine chromium and iron to produce ferrochrome, which is mainly used in steel production.

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Andrei Khalip and Joe Bavier)

 

Workers strike at Glencore’s Australia refinery over pay dispute


The refinery produces up to 300,000 tonnes a year of 99.995% pure copper cathode. Credit: Glencore

Workers at Glencore’s copper refinery in North Queensland went on strike after negotiations that began nearly a year ago failed to resolve disputes over better wages and working conditions, the Australian Workers’ Union (AWU) said on Friday.

Members of the union stopped work for four hours at the Townsville refinery before resuming operations.

“If Glencore aren’t interested in improving on their offer, the action will continue,” AWU Northern District secretary Jim Wilson said. He added that the union does not plan any further action for now.

On Wednesday, the union said it planned to go on strike as the miner had refused to offer workers a “decent” wage increase that kept up with the rising cost of living.

The London-listed company mines zinc, copper, silver and other minerals across 20 active operations in Australia and employs about 17,000 people, according to its website.

Glencore, in an emailed response to Reuters, reiterated that it remained committed to securing an agreement with its workforce and added that the union’s political grandstanding risked eroding the constructive engagement achieved with negotiators.

(By Nikita Maria Jino and Kumar Tanishk; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Janane Venkatraman)