Saturday, April 04, 2026

Arkeopolitics: Reframing Human History From Scratch – OpEd


Göbekli tepe. Photo Credit: Spica-Vega Photo Arts (Banu Nazikcan), Wikipedia Commons

April 4, 2026 
By Erdem Denk


In the heart of Ankara, less than a kilometer apart, stand two pillars of Turkish academia: the Faculty of Political Science (Mülkiye) and the Faculty of Language and History-Geography (DTCF). Mülkiye was established in 1859 to navigate the Ottoman Empire’s diplomatic relations with the West, while DTCF was founded by the first president of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, in 1935 to create the historical and linguistic identity of the new republic. Yet, despite falling under the umbrella of Ankara University since 1950, these neighbors have spent decades in a state of mutual ignorance about what the other does. One focuses on the “political present,” while the other is dedicated to the “historical horizon.”

This is not due to a lack of communication but is a result of structural invisibility. This paradigmatic ignorance is a byproduct of departmentalization; these disciplines were designed not to consider the other, mirroring a Western model that frames human history through the narrow lens of Eurocentric modernism.

As a student of Mülkiye, where I also later taught as a professor, I was the ward of this systemic silence. Standing behind the lectern, I often felt like the tormented pastor in Ingmar Bergman’s movie Winter Light—reciting the liturgy of 1648 and the “Westphalian Order” to a congregation that sensed that the god of modernity had long since departed the building.

My doctoral years at Cardiff Law School (2000–2005) were a revelation, but not in the way I expected. While I had arrived with an almost intimate knowledge of European legal history, I was struck by a jarring realization: the very system that claimed “universality” knew almost nothing about the history of the geography I came from, or indeed, any history outside its own curated timeline. It was later, upon returning to Mülkiye after my PhD to begin teaching and supervising the theses of my students, that I saw the extent of this omission in full view. Every lecture, every dissertation began with the mandatory nod to Ancient Greece or Rome, only to perform a dizzying leap into the modern era. There was something profoundly unsettling about this “jump”—as if thousands of years of human experience were merely a dark, irrelevant hallway leading to the brightly lit room of European modernity.

To understand what was truly lost in that gap, I began a retrospective journey. I started by asking a simple, heretical question: “What did the world actually look like in 1647, the year before modern history supposedly began?” This curiosity turned into a decade-long intellectual excavation. I moved backward from the Middle Ages to antiquity and then to Mesopotamian city-states, searching for the roots of order, until I finally reached the Stone Age.

This journey did not just challenge the “where” of history, but also the “how” of politics. As someone trained in international relations, I was indoctrinated by the Hobbesian trap: the idea of “homo homini lupus” (man is wolf to man) and the conviction that without a state—which was equated solely with the modern nation-state—there is only anarchy and chaos. This was an inescapable “reality” ingrained even in the most dissident among us: the belief that without a central authority, life was nasty, brutish, and short in every realm. Likewise, a more Lockean optimism—believing in a natural, rational order—remained a prisoner of the same 200-year-old modern script: the sovereign “umpire” was the only way to escape the uncertainty of the “state of nature.”

Even the founding fathers of the left, despite their critiques of the state, were anchored in a similar modernist progressivism. For them, the pre-state era was often merely viewed as a pre-political precursor to human development—a historical phase to be documented rather than a vital experience for navigating the present. Their teleological lens framed history as an inevitable march toward modernity, rendering the vast majority of human social organization theoretically invisible or irrelevant to contemporary governance.

However, as my study of Paleolithic and Neolithic datasets deepened, I realized that the core pillars of our social existence—from gender equality to the roots of redistribution—defied the “pre-data” paradigms I had been taught. These emerging findings, which I will explore in future articles, reveal a sophisticated laboratory of human resilience that modern political science has long chosen to ignore.


It would therefore be unfair to lay the blame on those 18th and 19th-century thinkers. They were children of their time, building theories without the benefit of the archaeological evidence we possess today. The real failure lies with us—with a modern academia that stubbornly clings to these outdated scripts despite a mountain of contradictory data accumulating over the last 20 years. Our refusal to rethink our foundations in the light of this vast human laboratory is not just a disciplinary myopia. It is a profound scientific inertia—a systemic byproduct of an obsession with hyper-specialization and the paralyzing safety of academic comfort zones.

In fact, when international relations was established as a formal discipline at Aberystwyth University in Wales in 1919, the Rosetta Stone had already been deciphered for nearly a century, the Amarna Letters had already been unearthed, transliterated, and translated, and the Hittite language was just being decoded. Archaeology was already revealing “deep time” and its profound relevance to modern law and order. Yet these two emerging fields were established in such a way that they would never coincide. They were designed to remain in parallel silence. I once asked professor Cahit Günbattı, a doyen of DTCF who dedicated his career to deciphering Akkadian cuneiform texts, if he had ever shared his findings with Mülkiye’s international law professors just a 10-minute walk away: “No,” he replied, “I don’t know why, but that’s just how it was in our time.”

As my own readings about the Paleolithic deepened, I realized that this was a systemic disconnection rather than a requirement of specialization. This fragmentation protected our paradigms, not our expertise. We were not suffering from a lack of information but fulfilling the requirements of our established universe. The data was always there. We chose to preserve the linear worldview that protected our academic existence. This led to a second, more unsettling conclusion: Modern archaeology was just as deeply political as political science. Both fields weren’t just merely silent; they were also reading from the same biased script.

The work of Sally Mcbrearty and Alison S. Brooks (2000) provided an “aha!” moment. Their critique of the “human revolution” confirmed that even fundamental classifications—like the Stone Age—were tailored to fit a European record. By ignoring the older and gradual developments in Africa, this selective lens was masking a far more complex global story.


Yet, while the explosion of Neolithic finds in Turkey—such as Göbeklitepe—initially challenged these Eurocentric myths, I soon encountered a different trap: a reactive “Anatolia-centrism” that claims the “zero point of history” all over again, just for a different geography. This is the danger of deconstruction: the temptation to dismantle one center only to erect another in its place. The flaws in these center-based narratives—whether Eurocentric or their reactive counterparts—convinced me of what I sought: not a depoliticized science, but one that transcends the narrow instrumentalization of history for modern identity politics.

Hundreds of thousands of years of human experience make any single-center history not just biased, but scientifically impossible. This realization shattered the singular narrative of my education. We have ignored a vast “human laboratory” of alternative governance—not because it failed, but because it defied the 200-year-old modern script.

This paradigmatic trap manifested as a physical silence between institutions designed to study human order. Despite isolated academic efforts and specific scholarly interests now and then, the structural indifference within Mülkiye—a school whose entire existence is dedicated to understanding the (modern) state—toward the origins and, more importantly, the “pre-history” of human organization, became an intolerable intellectual void for me.

Organizing the 2018 annual department conference, I titled it, “The World of States in a Transforming International System.” The world stood on the precipice of what I now call a “pan-crisis,” and I knew the answers wouldn’t be found in modern political textbooks alone. To explain the daily life of stateless societies and the long, non-linear process that eventually led to the state, I invited professor Mehmet Özdoğan, the doyen of Neolithic studies. His work was my constant companion. Yet to our knowledge, it was the first time an archaeologist of such stature had addressed Mülkiye. Professor Özdoğan did more than just provide an archaeological perspective on the birth of the state. He offered the encouragement I needed to accelerate my effort to merge archaeology with modern political science.

Encouraged by Professor Özdoğan, I felt a growing urge to dig deeper into the history of my field. Invited to contribute to a Festschrift for my PhD supervisor, Robin Churchill—a global authority on the law of the sea—I explored the ancient roots of maritime law. I authored a chapter on the Amarna Letters, the diplomatic correspondence of the Late Bronze Age. I didn’t yet call it “the archaeology of the law of the sea,” but framed it as “An Amodernist Approach to International Law (AMAIL)” to show that the field’s core structures persisted far beyond the narrow boundaries of the modern era. By “amodern,” I did not mean anti-modern, pre-modern, or post-modern. I sought a perspective that decenters the modern era—treating it not as the ultimate pinnacle of human progress, but as just another epoch within the trajectory of hundreds of thousands of years. While it has its distinct features, it is a period that can be scrutinized with the same analytical tools as any other, revealing that its unique structures are often just variations of much older human patterns.

These ventures were merely the first cracks; the exhaustion of old paradigms was now too visible to ignore. The global “pan-crisis” proved that the way we were taught to perceive the world was reaching its limits. This deepening crisis demanded more than isolated studies—it required a new language and a fundamental paradigm shift.

In 2021, I finally fused “arkeo” with “politics.” The mission was clear: to unify the archaeology of the “order beneath” with the political science of the “order above.” I aim to bridge an academic abyss: political science ignores millennia, instead focusing on the last 200 years, while archaeology hesitates to link its findings to modern governance or law.

Arkeopolitics invites both disciplines to an “intellectual awakening,” urging them to intertwine and reforge their perspectives into a unified, transformative framework. By breaking from Eurocentric and linear-progressivist paradigms, it revaluates the human story—from the Paleolithic to the present—through an “amodernist” lens. In this era of global “pan-crisis,” we need to consider hundreds of thousands of years of social organization as a vital dataset.


This is not a retreat into the past, but a strategic expansion of our vocabulary to survive the future. Arkeopolitics is an urgent invitation to reclaim our species’ resilience. By integrating the order beneath with the order above, we can finally stop treating “the past as a foreign country” and recognize it as our most vital pool of experience for the road ahead.


Author Bio: Erdem Denk is a professor of international law and international relations at Ankara University and the founder of the transdisciplinary research initiative Arkeopolitics, which integrates archaeology, history, political theory, and legal history to reinterpret the long-term dynamics of human societies. His research focuses on the evolution of law and social order since the Paleolithic. He is the author of The 50,000-Year World Order: Societies and Their Laws (2021, in Turkish) and is currently working on three books, in Turkish and English, titled When There Was No State, The Invention of the State, and The Story of the State.

Credit Line: This article was produced by Human Bridges.



Queen Amina: Soldier On Horseback – Book Review



"Queen Amina: Soldier on Horseback," Kola King
 is published by Verity Publishers, South Africa is available in both paperback and e-book edition

April 4, 2026 
By Tunde Akande

Amina is a Muslim name. One ruled in Zazzau in Northern Nigeria about 400 years ago. But the Amina in this novel is fictional and tells the story of the possibility and desire of women in Africa to be liberated from the oppression of their menfolk. Africans think of women only as child bearers and nurturers.



The novel tells its story in five societal relevance.


Language relevance.

It hits you like a thunderbolt as you open the novel: “Amina is an oddball.” You know “odd,” which the dictionary defines as “being without a corresponding mate.” Good, but when does a ball become “odd”? Welcome, Queen Amina, Soldier on Horseback; welcome, your teacher in the English language. Wole Soyinka, Nobel laureate, has complained so painfully of the fallen standard of spoken and written English among Nigerian youths. Graduates of universities cannot put words together to form a coherent sentence. What English Soyinka reads on social media is very worrisome and must be corrected. The cause is a poor reading culture. That must change; teachers must read and influence pupils too. This is where Queen Amina, Soldier on Horseback, finds usefulness. How did Soyinka and Chinua Achebe attain their enviable heights in literature? They devoured books and were well educated. Let this generation also rise and read and read and read. Let the teachers read and recommend the books they read to their students; let the parents buy books for their wards and not aso-ebi. Let libraries spring up again in every corner. A reading nation is a great nation.

This is a smart generation. Your smartphone is good and useful, but it can distract you and make you lazy. Yet it is still a useful companion in your reading, especially as it can help you acquire vocabulary. AI is a good companion. The dictionary must be a good companion again; don’t let it go out of fashion. Gemini AI says this of oddball: an oddball is essentially a lovable misfit. It’s someone whose behavior, ideas, or appearance don’t quite fit the standard mold, but in a way, usually interesting or harmless rather than scary. Quite an overload, but you find that in the character of Amina. She was a change agent who wanted her society to change. She’s not old-fashioned; she’s new school, as Gen Z says. “Oddball” prepares you to see that the novel in your hand will help you to acquire new words and enrich your vocabulary. From page to page, you come across words, expressions, and metaphors you may be seeing for the first time. Let’s run through some pages. Page 6, oddball, puberty, agile, exotic, surfeit, suitors, tenets, old wives’ tales, and rough and tumble of the open field. Page 7, steely exterior, heart of gold, splendour of sunshine, outcast, pariah, ‘’Zamanda’‘ as the “personification of the supremacy, power, and glorious history of the Zaburshe.” Page 8: first among equals, pastoralists, enamoured, scatter into the winds, put down their roots, slink away and fortuitous. And on page 215, rogue king, keen and fierce, fate and circumstance throw her up; walked where men feared to tread and benevolent. The novel has thousands of these words, expressions, and phrases in its 217 pages spread across 31 chapters. It is a minefield for those who want to learn the English language and those who want to appreciate the beauty of the language. The AI in your phone will give the meaning of those words and many more.

Gender Parity Relevance.

Again the novel takes up the sad issue of gender inequality in Africa. The continent is arguably the only continent where women are still groveling under the yoke of oppression and inequality and where the desire for freedom is being fought by some women with very great zeal. Amina, the central character of the novel, typifies this fight. We are not told that it was her education that prepared Amina for the role, other than that she grew an inborn stubbornness against male superiority, and that probably guided her choice of that role. She is a character set among Muslims, where the suppression of the womenfolk is most severe. Women virtually have no voice in Africa and especially in Islam. They are to give birth to and raise children; they are to be married off without their consent. They don’t have to have affection for the suitor; he just has to be the choice of the parents. A husband can even beat his wife in Islam as a discipline. In the case of Amina, she was the design of the father, Usman, to seal his friendship with Suleiman, whom he met while they were trading. Aisha, the mother of Amina, will be regarded as a failure if her daughter Amina does not agree to the marriage. Amina went into spirited debate with her mother on why marriage to a man she never had affection for should be forced on her. When the mother would not stop weeping, Amina caved in to save the mother from societal mockery, but she refused to loosen up to the ‘husband,’ Suleiman, even months after the marriage. Suleiman’s much persuasion with gifts could not win Amina over, and he eventually had to return Amina to her father’s house. Amina’s father had thought that, like most girls who eventually overcome their initial rejection of such a forced marriage, his daughter would get over it. But Amina was an oddball; she never yielded. Does that speak to Africa and especially Muslim Northern Nigeria, where underage girls are married off to men who could be their fathers or where women are not sent to school for an education because society has cast out a role for them only in the kitchen and in the maternity ward? Definitely yes, because there are stories of many girls who are running off with men of their choice and many such forced marriages that are ending in death for the unaccepted husbands by the wives. Society will undoubtedly yield to the recalcitrance of these oddballs. Can a woman rule in Africa? Fictional Amina reigned and ruled in fictional Zamanda. But there are women, a few of them ruling in some African countries. Amina’s choice by the kingmakers has some divine touch, the novel telling us God is not happy with Africa for putting women on the backburner in political affairs. But women are certain to rebel against that attitude, and many are rebelling now. Amina fired back so angrily at the suggestion of Daud, a prince of Zamanda whose turn it was to be king but who was not chosen by the kingmakers, who rather chose Amina by divine will, that “a woman cannot rule where you have princes”: “I have no idea about the selection process. And I was as surprised as anyone else when I was pronounced the queen by the kingmakers. Besides, I would gain nothing by supplanting the Hamajah dynasty. By the way, where did you get the wrong notion that a woman cannot rule over men.” Amina rejected the idea of her stepping down for Daud, who had gone to persuade her to. At 13 years of age, Amina would rather keep company with cattle rearers and roam the wild, and at age 15, she flatly rejected a forced husband, Suleiman. She did not marry eventually, but she went on to become a great queen who not only ruled over men, but also developed her kingdom greatly and proved the idea that women cannot rule over men wrong. In Nigeria and in Africa, the Amazons will definitely overcome.

Bitter Power Struggle


This is how beautifully the novel opens the discussion of power contests and struggle among princes that typifies the instability that has become the bane of African governments since all of them became independent of their colonizers yet still appear as if they cannot govern themselves, as variously alleged by these ex-colonizers.

“The king’s court is like the wild. It is appropriate to say it is akin to the Serengeti, where all manners of animals roam in the wild and with each of them seeking a turf for dominance, power, and dominance.”

Queen Amina, Soldier on Horseback, typifies government as likened to animals that roam in the wild. In the Serengeti, these animals are court jesters, talebearers, spies, hangers-on, and all manner of counselors. In today’s government structure they will be presidents, vice presidents, secretaries to governments, chiefs of staff, senate presidents, deputy senate presidents, committee chairmen, speakers of the house of representatives/assemblies, ministers, commissioners, legislators, civil servants, heads of parastatals, etc. Each of them struggles to capture the attention of the king or the president or the prime minister. They want dominance for power and control. Their inordinate ambition sparks bitter contests for power. After the king has emerged, the next stage of the power struggle is to capture the king himself. This struggle sparks off instability in Africa which the ex-colonizers seize to keep African nations permanently exploited and underdeveloped. In Nigeria, the 1966 Igbo coup was woven around an Igbo design to capture power, and the countercoup of 1966 was designed to return power to the North, the North being a euphemism for the Fulanis who lost power when their leader Sir Ahmadu Bello was killed in the 1966 coup. The civil war and the end of it and the restoration of a semblance of peace in the hands of General Yakubu Gowon with General Murtala Mohammed, who planned the revenge coup, becoming unruly and uncontrollable and eventually upstaging Gowon, installing himself as the head of state who will not consult anybody, as he alleged Gowon not to have done. Gowon was removed, and Obasanjo, the unwilling Yoruba man, became the head of state until he gave power to Alhaji Shehu Shagari in civilian garb. Shagari was removed in the intrigues of generals led by Muhammadu Buhari, Ibrahim Babangida and Tunde Idiagbon. Another palace intrigue that produced Babangida, who also, as alleged, was almost removed by his friend General Maman Vatsa in a planned but unexecuted coup, and until now President Bola Tinubu, who told the whole nation it was his turn in the power struggle to be president because it was the turn of his Yoruba ethnicity. Of course, he won through intrigues and a bitter power struggle. As it was for the bitter power struggle in Nigeria and all nations, so it was for Amina in Zamanda. The kingmakers chose Amina, who was accepted by popular acclaim but rejected by ambitious princes who would not accept a woman to rule over men. Amina, being a woman, could not lead prayers over men, and it was the king that must lead because he is both the natural and the spiritual leader. Amina ran away to Ashara, a nearby kingdom, to escape the plan of Daud, a prince who must be king by all means, to kill her.

Convinced of a divine will for her choice as the queen and persuaded that society needs to change in its jaundiced view of women, Amina never gave up on her vision but ran to a foreign land where she resided for some years. Meanwhile, Daud, the very inordinately ambitious, rough, and tough would-be king, seized power by force, coercing all the kingmakers to make him king by force. After he became king by force, Daud was still not satisfied; he had his eyes on the fertile land of Nganga, which he went to fight for, despite the advice of his army general. He led the war personally, against the professional advice of his army. He got killed. This paved the way for the return of Amina from her land of exile in the Asara kingdom to Zamanda, her nativity.

Ethical relevance


Most people the world over think ethics must be foreign to human government. They would rather quote Niccolò Machiavelli to dictate or explain attitudes in government rather than the ethics of the religious books. The end justifies the means. Notable political scientists are reported to be behind the horrendous choices of prominent powers, especially the United States of America. For example, the renowned U.S. secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, was reportedly behind America’s foreign policy of sacrificing human lives for America’s expediency. Thus, many leaders and citizens of foreign nations were killed to achieve America’s objective. This is unethical, and it has bred more conflict in the world, even leading to general hatred for Americans everywhere. Sultan Daud, who forcibly snatched power in Zamanda, exemplified this unethical governance in the world. He was a wife snatcher; a land grabber; covetous; a cattle rustler, which he did through the herdsmen agents; impious and self-indulgent; mean-spirited and with insatiable desires, eyes that can never be satisfied, and an uncontrollable appetite for women. Amina, who replaced Daud after he was killed in a war, was a direct opposite of Daud. She was a patient woman who would wait for as long as it took to get what was due to her; she was loving and gentle, contented and bold, and courageous. If Africa is to turn around in her unstable governance, Amina must be a model.

Economic development and nation-building relevance


It is amazing that a novel situated in a background that looks very much like the north of Nigeria and among Muslims, where irresponsible and poor leadership has grounded the citizenry, will throw up a woman in a male-dominated system who will be such a wonderful model in economic development as Amina. The North is the sick child of Nigeria, dragging the nation down, but in Queen Amina, Soldier on Horseback, we read the possibility of greatness for the sick North if she will unshackle her womenfolk. Amina is proof that attendance at Harvard University or any of the other great institutions of the world is not a requirement for good leadership that transforms society. A good heart, a perceptive spirit, a determination to transform society in social justice, a humble and peaceful heart, and a courageous heart are the requirements. Thus, Amina relaxed the tense atmosphere that had been encouraged by the vicious rule of her predecessor, reduced heavy tax burdens, gave people their land back, set the blacksmiths free from burdensome taxes, and sent people to foreign nations to learn new technologies; removed all shackles from the feet of women and thus released the boundless energies of this segment of society that is more than half of the population, who had been rendered non- contributory to the economy; and ensured justice by first warning the corrupt judges and subsequently removing them when they will not change because they were set in their ways. Queen Amina built a new palace using local materials and architecture. She also beautifies the kingdom.

Queen Amina, Soldier on Horseback is a treasure trove, but it is fiction that ends like a true story. This may have to be expunged in the next reprint of the novel.


Tunde Akande is both a journalist and pastor. He earned a Master's degree in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos.
The Geoeconomic Angle Of The Third Gulf War – Analysis


April 4, 2026 
Geopolitical Monitor
By Jose Miguel Alonso-Trabanco

As the testament of history teaches, there is no war that lacks an economic layer. Since the dawn of civilization, wars have been waged with economic assets and for the pursuit of economic relative gains. However, the conflict that is shaking West Asia, even more so than the Ukraine War, highlights the contemporary centrality of geoeconomics as the expansion of war through other means. Just like bombers, fighters and guided munitions serve in the kinetic battlespace, the weaponization of oil barrels, currencies, high-tech supply chains and commodities is at the forefront of this confrontation.
The Weaponization of Complex Interdependence

Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan explained that, as narrow chokepoints, mastery over straits matters for both commerce and naval power projection. With selective interdiction in the strait of Hormuz through drones, naval mines and missiles, Iran has triggered a geoeconomic earthquake. This measure, likely inspired by the instructive lessons of both the Suez crisis and the Arab oil embargo, is meant to strangle both Gulf petro-monarchies and oil importers in Washington’s politico-strategic orbit. At gunpoint, these states are being pushed to convince the Americans to seek a negotiated settlement that restores economic normalcy before their energy security is compromised any further.

As an additional externality, volatility in international oil markets has the critical mass to trigger recessions. In the highly sensitive realm of international finance, the resonance of the Third Gulf War has provoked losses worth at least 2.5 trillion dollars. In a macroeconomic environment underpinned by systemic financialization, mounting panic in Wall Street, stock exchanges, capital markets, and the elite corporate boardrooms of investment banks foreshadows both stagflation and political trouble.

For Iranian statecraft, this de facto blockade is not just a powerful asymmetric equalizer, but also a money-making machine. The fees charged by Iranian toll booths for safe passage (reportedly, $2 million per ship) bolster Tehran’s war chest. On the other hand, although Tehran does not intend to target partners like China and India (buyers of Iranian oil), both Beijing and Delhi are being indirectly pressured to broker a ceasefire through diplomatic solutions.


Based on the fundamentals of connectivity wars, Iranian reactive countermeasures have been masterminded to maximize the impact of ripple effects on global supply chains. Attacks against regional gas fields have partially disabled power grids that fuel energy-intensive aluminium refining facilities. The resulting shortages will disrupt worldwide industrial production in sophisticated sectors such as aerospace and car-making. Considering its dual-use applications, aluminium is officially classified by the United States as a critical metal for national security and defense. The Iranian chokehold is also curtailing the exports of Saudi and Qatari nitrogen-based fertilizers (derived from hydrocarbons) to the wider world. The resulting bottleneck is causing disturbances such as rising prices and diminishing output. Far from being only a transitory macroeconomic problem for individual farms and agribusinesses, such a disruption endangers global food security in both developed and underdeveloped nations. Since the Middle East provides roughly a third of the world’s total fertilizer supply, in the worst-case scenario of a protracted conflict, the prospect of famines is not unrealistic. Iranian attacks against major regional desalination plants follow a similar politico-strategic logic.

The US is partially shielded from this disruption thanks to self-sufficiency in oil supplies as a result of fracking and the availability of a formidable strategic petroleum reserve. However, the political will and the material capacity of the US to reopen Hormuz and restore freedom of navigation, the backbone of free trade as an international public good, are now being questioned. By targeting the keystones of the US-centric global economic order, Iran is arguably playing with fire, but this West Asian state has no interest in the preservation of an international commercial, financial, and monetary regime from which it has been excluded. Aware of this dwindling commitment to the preservation of open sea lanes, both US partners and adversaries are recalculating accordingly.

Taking Hormuz would give the Trump administration the opportunity to hold China’s energy supplies hostage to US strategic control. However, the facts on the ground suggest that removing this de facto blockade, let alone a full-fledged seizure of the Iranian oil industry, is a challenging endeavor for the Pentagon, even with boots on the ground.

Failure to reopen the strait of Hormuz would evoke the humbling withdrawal of British forces from Suez as a breaking point in the global balance of power. Iranian forces do not need to sink a US aircraft carrier, only to embrace strategic patience and resistance in order to weaponize time until the Americans, frustrated with the elusiveness of a quick victory, decide to call it a day and cut losses before things get uglier with the breakout of a land war and the ensuing carnage. For example, even though Richelovian France was behind the much richer but overstretched and heavily indebted Habsburg Empire, it managed to turn the tables through attrition, diplomatic intrigue, selective harassment, and proxy wars until the Austrian monarchy ended up in an irreversible bankruptcy. Yet this risky gamble will falter if the Iranian war effort crumbles first due to an economic implosion. Whereas the rial is on life support, Iranian industrial infrastructure is being incapacitated, and the Iranian social compact is severely strained.

For Israel, chaos in the Persian Gulf brings opportunities to promote oil and gas pipelines connecting the Arabian peninsula with Israeli ports such as Eilat and Haifa. Regardless of the outcome of the ongoing conflict, these alternative networks would bypass territories and waterways under Iranian suzerainty. If such projects ever come to fruition, Jerusalem would develop leverage over European energy security. If European states want a reliable supply of Middle Eastern fossil fuels, then their foreign policies would have to defer to Israel’s strategic national interests.

Myths and Political Realities of Sanctions

Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned economies. These unilateral coercive measures were implemented by the US to force Tehran to freeze the development of its nuclear program. Under pressure, the Iranians engaged the Americans and other counterparts under the frame of the JCPOA. Yet, aside from the exchange of empty diplomatic niceties, these negotiations did not deliver substantive breakthroughs. The Iranians did not abandon their dual-use nuclear program, and the Americans did not lift any sanctions or restored Iranian access to payments networks like SWIFT. In parallel, Iran felt undeterred by their enforcement. Iran, inspired by Shiite revolutionary zeal and the legacy of the Persian imperial tradition, tried to forge a Shiite Crescent as the crux of Iranian regional hegemony. In order to further resilience and overcome the impact of Western sanctions, Iranian economic statecraft relied on the reorientation of its economic exchanges with Asia and the circuits of decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Even after setbacks for Iran’s regional influence and under the pressure of Israeli-American airstrikes and a relentless campaign of targeted assassinations, Tehran remains defiant and such an attitude seems to be paying off. Under the pressure of Iranian asymmetric tactics of economic warfare, the Trump administration has responded with the temporary suspension of sanctions on seaborne Iranian crude exports. This extraordinary measure, unthinkable barely one year ago, reflects mounting concerns surrounding instability in oil markets and surging prices. Without the availability of Iranian petroleum, the economic and financial fallout of the war may escalate further. In public, Iranian government officials have downplayed the benefits of this unexpected decision. Behind closed doors, they are surely learning that sanctions imposed by an adversarial great power can be challenged with a combination of chutzpah, expedient opportunism, and sabre-rattling.

The Promised Land of Start-Up Mercantilism versus Shiite Economic Resistance


The conflict between Israel and Iran is, aside from an interstate war, a confrontation between two systems of political economy, neither of which follows the theoretical roadmap of free trade. Instead, both Israel and Iran have neo-mercantilist models, but their recipes differ. Unlike other Middle Eastern economies, Israel has no abundance of natural resources, but this Levantine state has a qualified, multicultural and business-savvy human capital. Under these conditions, Israel has managed to sculpt, through a synergic partnership between the state and the private sector, an economy focused on start-up capitalism. Whereas the state lays the groundwork for a prosperous business environment, private companies conquer markets through the deployment of goods and services with added value. This hybrid blends intrepid entrepreneurship, advanced technologies, intensive R&D, world-class expertise, spillovers, and dual-use innovations. For example, Unit 8200 is not just involved in SIGINT tasks and cyber-warfare, it also operates as a cradle in which high-tech scalable commercial solutions are incubated. As a result, Israel is positioned as the world’s eighth most complex economy. Israeli leadership in biotechnology and diamond-cutting embodies this sophistication.

Israel has built a state-of-the-art military complex which manufactures assault rifles, tanks, intelligence software, and UAVs. Although the top-notch materiel is usually reserved for the IDF, competitive surpluses are exported to various foreign destinations. Israel’s complex economy has proved to be resilient thanks to the best practice derived from strategic intelligence and business continuity plans, but the ongoing war represents a major challenge for the pillars of this economic model. For example, the exodus of Israelis—especially amongst secular and highly educated citizens— as a result of war fatigue, economic disruptions, theocratic tendencies, and psychological exhaustion is encouraging an incremental “brain drain.” For these people, despite their ideological affinity to the Jewish state, the loss of prosperity is a deal breaker. Another weakness is that Israel’s high-tech arsenal needs imported hardware made by foreign companies, including American F35 fighter jets and German diesel-electric submarines. Although pro-Israeli governments are in charge of both Washington and Berlin, the automatic continuity of this proclivity must not be taken for granted, especially as long-term generational shifts reshape foreign policy attitudes.

In contrast, the Iranian model of state-led capitalism, under external pressure, seeks national resilience as a necessity for statecraft rather than shared profits or competitiveness. Tehran’s policy of “economic resistance” is based on national security considerations and the preservation of internal political stability. Despite having the world’s ninth largest pool of STEM graduates, Iran is far behind Israel in economic complexity. Yet Iranian statesmen think that the country does not need to be rich to satisfy its politico-strategic imperatives. This logic explains why strategic and lucrative sectors of the Iranian economy are in the hands of IRGC generals. The spectrum of such a military control over the Iranian system of political economy includes oil, construction, banking, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, tourism, real estate and even black markets. This scheme is not random. As in the cases of Cuba, Egypt, North Korea, and Pakistan, the IRGC Inc empire has been engineered to ensure the loyalty of this military elite with the carrots of economic rewards. IRGC senior commanders have therefore little incentives to stage a coup that would jeopardize access to sources of wealth. In addition, Tehran has prioritized industries whose output strengthens national power (such as aerospace and nuclear power) rather than marketable goods. Based on this rationale, Iran —deprived of access to Western conventional weapons and distrustful of alternative suppliers like the Russians— has nurtured the development of an indigenous military industrial complex which, despite existing limitations, produces Shahed kamikaze drones, ballistic missiles, and satellites.

Iranian “economic resistance” is also aligned with the doctrinal tenets of Shia Islam. For Shiites, the endurance of hardship, as a hallmark of righteousness, leads to virtue. The removal of US sanctions would be very much welcome by the Iranian business community as a sign of relief. Unsurprisingly, the so-called “bazaaris” (heirs of the Persian merchant tradition that goes back to the ancient “silk road”) are unhappy with the country’s leadership due to rising prices, commercial disruptions and wildly fluctuating exchange rates. Nevertheless, despite this discontent, the Iranian state has adapted through asymmetric tactics, partly thanks to the abundance of oil and natural gas. For example, since Iran cannot freely export petroleum to the rest of the world, these energy resources have been invested in large-scale cryptocurrency mining farms. Such a process enables the ‘alchemical’ transmutation of energy into digital money through nonstate blockchain-based networks whose geometries are, to a certain extent, sanctions-proof. Regional partners, like Georgia, have also provided additional lifelines.

Petrodollar Warfare

The Third Gulf War has ambivalent ramifications for the dollar’s hegemony as dominant reserve currency. In the short term, systemic uncertainty and higher prices in oil markets are encouraging importers to reinforce their reliance on dollar-denominated assets and arteries, at the expense of secondary hard currencies like the euro or the yen. From the perspective of Iranian economic statecraft, attacking the energy infrastructure of GCC members and the asphyxiation of the Hormuz Strait targets the cornerstone of the petro-dollar recycling system. The Gulf states, in exchange for US security guarantees, invest the proceeds of their oil exports in dollar-denominated assets. Tehran is weakening both the transactional commitment of the US military to the military protection of regional Arab partners and the incentives of these petro-monarchies to rely on the US as a trustworthy sentinel of the Middle Eastern status quo. Under Iranian pressure, systemic uncertainty and a multipolar correlation of forces, these states are being pushed to abandon Washington’s strategic orbits to pursue more diversified collective security mechanisms. Apparently, Tehran is also brandishing the Hormuz crisis to advance de-dollarization of its oil sales by embracing the yuan as an alternative settlement currency.

Although the Suez crisis spelled the death knell of the pound sterling as the world’s supreme reserve currency, it is unlikely that this measure will cross the greenback’s event horizon beyond the point of no return. The Iranians, despite their combativeness, lack the financial firepower that the Americans had when they threatened to sink the British currency or to put in motion a cascading domino effect. However, this ‘currency war’ can accelerate existing structural trends that herald the genesis of a new multipolar monetary order in which the centrality of the US dollar is diminished. In hindsight, future historians will discuss how the proliferation of high-intensity economic warfare hastened the dollar’s decline (and fall?).

High-Tech Geoeconomics

Digital code, now mightier than the sword, is reprogramming the operational grammar of warfare in theatres of engagement shaped by both complex interdependence and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. As a lab, the Iran war gives a glimpse of what a high-tech geoeconomic battlefield looks like. In this regard, advanced technologies are heavily reliant on material inputs and a supporting infrastructure. Hence, the shockwaves of the war are problematic for energy-intensive AI models whose functionality requires affordable, stable, and reliable sources of fossil fuels. This need will grow even more, as AI platforms are structurally embedded, as digital infrastructure, to major governmental and corporate nerve centers. These considerations are driving the US scramble to secure access to overseas oil reserves, and to prevent Chinese competitors from overtaking US national champions in the race for AI superiority.

Furthermore, the historical record will remember the Iran War as the first conflict in which data centers were attacked by both sides. These nodes have been added to the belligerents’ banks of targets because, in the so-called “information age” they underpin telecom, financial services, e-commerce platforms, public utilities, and even military preparedness. US forces have used both Palantir and Claude to process data for the enhancement of intelligence tasks and battlefield performance. This AI-driven war will reinforce the symbiotic covenant between the US defense establishment and Silicon Valley as an oligopolistic high-tech cluster. Although Israel has wielded AI-tools that maximize enemy casualties in Gaza (such as Habsora and Lavender), it is unknown if these assets are being used over Iranian skies to increase the lethality of its fighters, UAVs, and smart projectiles.


Despite being behind the US and Israel in military-grade AI operating systems, Iran has diagnosed the condition of AI infrastructure networks as centers of gravity and Achilles’ heels worth undermining. Iranian forces have hit Amazon data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. And it looks like Tehran also intends to strike regional nodes of tech companies like IBM, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle and Palantir because of their close organic connections to US and Israeli national security ecosystems. This trend will encourage the securitization of data centers as strategic hardware and the development of ad-hoc public-private partnerships for their protection. They also highlight their incremental centrality for modern-day smart warfare, as well as their exposure as legitimate targets of kinetic attacks.

Finally, since helium is produced on a large scale in Qatar as a byproduct of natural gas processing, the Iran war is compressing the global supply of this gaseous chemical element, especially considering its complicated storage and transportation logistics. Helium is a strategic input for advanced manufacturing in applications related to semiconductors, chipmaking, cooling systems, fiber optics, photolithography, and satellites. Without helium, the progression of Industry 4.0 will be slower. Despite its outward ethereal appearance, the cloud is anchored to the worldly political economy of natural resources. The fateful principles of “historical security materialism” remain valid in the digital age.

Concluding Remarks

Shifts in the structural architecture of world order, usually as a result of major war, and systemic economic transitions are two sides of the same coin. The Third Gulf War is no hegemonic confrontation fought between peer competitors, but this asymmetric clash may potentially reshuffle not just the balance of power in West Asia. The threshold of the conflict has escaped the domain of conventional Clausewitzian operations. The resulting devastation is being amplified by the frontline deployment of economic weapons and the destruction of economic targets. Contrary to what neoclassical economists and liberal internationalists prophesied about a ‘Pax Mercatoria’ as a harbinger of stability, prosperity, and restraint, the grammar of economic exchanges has been swallowed by the politico-strategic logic of war. Money, commerce, high-tech and natural resources —as instruments of power projection in warfare— are too important to be left exclusively in the hands of traders, corporate executives, and financiers. In the heartland of ancient Persia, the lines in the sand of West Asia’s geoeconomic map are being redrawn.


This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

Geopoliticalmonitor.com is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service, providing research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs.
Climate Change Threatens Human Health Across Southern Africa – Analysis


Climate change should not only be understood as an environmental phenomenon, but also as a critical and systemic threat to human health.

April 3, 2026 
By Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Scientific evidence indicates that climate change is affecting the essential determinants of health, such as clean air, safe drinking water, nutritious food and secure shelter. This ratchets up existing health burdens and creates new ones across the world.

Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is projected to cause about 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress. This will have direct costs for global health systems. More importantly, regions with weaker health infrastructure, particularly in low‑income countries, will bear the most severe impacts.

To address the issue effectively, we must first understand the mechanisms through which climate change affects health. This process has many interrelated dimensions.

To begin with, rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods and droughts, directly increase morbidity and mortality. Indirectly, this also disrupts food and water systems and increases mental health stresses arising from displacement, as well as the loss of livelihoods.


Climate change can also be viewed as a threat multiplier. On the one hand, it exacerbates health risks already experienced by vulnerable populations. And on the other, it disproportionately affects those least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.

Recent scientific analyses further highlight the emerging dimensions of climate‑related health risks. A study recently published in The Lancet Global Health projects that climate change is contributing to a growing physical inactivity crisis by reducing safe opportunities for outdoor movement as temperatures rise. This inactivity, linked to chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes, could result in hundreds of thousands of additional premature deaths annually by mid‑century.

Within this global context, Southern Africa, one of the world’s most vulnerable regions, exemplifies how climate change magnifies existing health vulnerabilities and reveals structural gaps.

The Southern African Development Community countries — including Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe — contribute an insignificant share of global greenhouse gas emissions yet face disproportionate climate‑induced health risks due to high socioeconomic vulnerability.


Projections highlight that Southern Africa is experiencing warming at a rate higher than the global average, with potential temperature increases up to several degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century.

Such warming increases heat stress and susceptibility to heat‑related illnesses, particularly among outdoor laborers, children and the elderly. It also affects other vulnerable populations that lack access to adequate cooling infrastructure and healthcare support. Heat stress not only leads to acute morbidity, including heat exhaustion and heat stroke, but also contributes to renal and cardiovascular stress.

Infectious diseases are another pressing concern. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns expand the potential range of diseases such as malaria and dengue. Furthermore, compromised water and food systems due to droughts or flood damage heighten risks of waterborne and foodborne illnesses. These illnesses disproportionately affect infants, children and other vulnerable populations.

Another issue is that environmental degradation and food insecurity in one nation can strain regional markets and cross‑border supply chains. This impacts food access and economic stability in neighboring countries. Such ripple effects show that health security, when it comes to climate change, cannot be confined to one place.

Unfortunately, mental health burdens are also often overlooked in climate discussions. The mental health consequences of climate change warrant considerable attention. Repeated exposure to extreme weather events, loss of homes and livelihoods, and chronic stress contribute to heightened rates of anxiety, depression and other psychosocial disorders.

The interplay of climate change with human health in Southern Africa points to another important issue: the transboundary dimension of climate health risks. Health challenges triggered by climate change in one region or national context do not remain isolated. Instead, they reverberate regionally and globally through paths such as migration, infectious disease spread and economic interconnectedness.


In addition, displacement due to climate disasters can result in cross‑border movements that stress regional health systems. This interconnectedness again affirms that climate change is not solely an environmental or economic challenge but a global public health concern requiring a collective response.

As a result, it is critical to bring up the principles of climate justice and equity. Those people most vulnerable to climate‑induced health impacts — often in low‑income countries or marginalized communities — have contributed the least to the historical accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions. Yet they bear disproportionate health burdens, highlighting a fundamental inequity.

High‑emitting nations should provide assistance to these countries, including financial support and investments in climate‑resilient infrastructure and health services. In general, we should integrate health considerations into climate policy at national and international levels as well.

In a nutshell, the nexus between climate change and human health should not be overlooked. In Southern Africa, as in many vulnerable regions, climate change is amplifying health risks. These risks include the physiological, infectious, nutritional and psychosocial domains, with many effects that extend beyond national borders.

As a result, it is vital to recognize climate change as a central determinant of health. And we need genuine international cooperation rooted in the principles of climate justice. Without such collective action, the health consequences of climate change will continue to worsen.

This article was published at Arab News

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Public Comment Extended On Future Of Offshore Wind In Oregon, Including None At All

April 3, 2026 
Oregon Capital Chronicle
By Alex Baumhardt

(Oregon Capital Chronicle) — Oregonians have one more month to weigh in on the future of floating offshore wind energy in the state, including a path forward that would abandon the effort for now.

State officials extended the deadline to submit comments on the Oregon Offshore Wind Energy Roadmap from April 3 to April 27, before it goes to state lawmakers to inform energy policy proposals that could come up during the long legislative session in 2027.

Jeff Burright, who heads up the offshore wind energy work at the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, said the extension is an effort to get more perspective from people who haven’t come to in-person or virtual meetings, and who also might have been bogged down earlier this year due to the legislative session.

The roadmap is part of a multi-year effort by state and federal officials and private companies to harness the power of ocean winds off the Oregon Coast to generate clean electricity. But the effort has been stymied by opposition from coastal communities, tribes, the fishing industry and changing federal administrations.

The roadmap outlines four paths forward:No offshore wind energy.
Oregon develops a full-scale offshore wind energy industry.
The state participates only economically in the offshore wind industry, such as parts manufacturing or research and development, but does not host projects.

Oregon hosts a pilot offshore wind energy project to gain more experience before decisions to expand into a full-scale industry.

In 2021, the Oregon Legislature set a goal of powering 1 million homes with offshore wind by 2030, and former President Joe Biden set the goal of building up 15 gigawatts of offshore wind energy capacity along the coasts of the U.S. by 2035, with a total of 30 gigawatts deployed by 2030.

By 2024, the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy identified several sites off the coast of northern California and two sites off southern Oregon’s coast as having great potential for generating offshore wind electricity. They included 61,200 acres off the coast of Coos Bay and nearly 134,000 acres off the coast of Brookings. The Coos Bay site is 30 miles from the coast, and the Brookings area is 20 miles away. Combined, they could potentially generate more than 3.1 gigawatts of renewable energy, enough to power 1 million households.

Informational meetings were held in coastal communities and federal officials prepared to auction off leases to wind energy companies to develop those sites.

“Starting in the middle of 2024, it looked like leasing was imminent, so there was a recognition that we needed to kind of sharpen our tools and figure out what standards we were actually going to hold for ourselves when we got to play at the federal permitting table, using the state’s authorities,” Burright said.

The state Legislature passed a bill directing the agency to plan for the state’s role with the roadmap.

“So we started down that path. And then, of course, everything changed,” he said.

By the fall of 2024, facing growing opposition from locals and calls to pause development from Oregon’s governor and congressional delegation, the ocean energy bureau called off its plans to auction off the sites and potential developers pulled out. Then in July of 2025, as part of President Donald Trump’s overarching war against wind, the ocean energy agency rescinded all designated Wind Energy Areas identified for possible development on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf, more than 3.5 million acres in all.

Emotions over the project were stirred in part, Burright said, because “the ocean is the commons. It’s something that we all have a part in owning. People generally, I think, all feel a connection to it. No matter where they live, people will visit the ocean, have some sense of connection and ownership over what it means to them.”

While Oregon decides on its ocean wind future, California is moving forward with its offshore projects, helped in part by a state energy department with the authority to buy the power itself and a grid run by the state, as opposed to the grid in the Northwest run almost entirely by the Bonneville Power Administration.

Burright said even though one of the paths in the roadmap is no offshore floating wind energy at all, he doesn’t think it would be the end of the story for Oregon’s efforts.

“They’re moving forward. We can learn from that,” he said of California’s plans. “And if we can identify — what does the path actually look like? What about for Oregon? That we can live with? And what are the things that we have to have in our pocket before we would ever say yes? Well, then, there’s at least a path that somebody could follow.”

Oregon Capital Chronicle

The Oregon Capital Chronicle, founded in 2021, is a professional, nonprofit news organization. We focus on deep and useful reporting on Oregon state government, politics and policy. Staffed by experienced journalists, the Capital Chronicle helps readers understand how those in government are using — or abusing — their power, what’s happening to taxpayer dollars, and how citizens can stake a bigger role in big decisions.



 

Rome court rules Netflix price hikes illegal, opening door to €500 refunds

Netflix logo
Copyright Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

By Fortunato Pinto
Published on 

A Rome court has found Netflix's subscription price increases between 2017 and 2024 to be unlawful, potentially entitling millions of Italian subscribers to refunds of up to €500. The streaming giant says it will appeal.

The Court of Rome upheld the injunction action brought by consumer group Movimento Consumatori against Netflix Italia over unilateral price increases.

The judges found the clauses that allowed subscription prices to be changed between 2017 and January 2024 to be unfair and abusive.

According to the association's note, these contractual conditions are null and void because they did not indicate a justified reason for the price increases.

The ruling states that the changes made in the years 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2024 violate the rules set out in the Consumer Code.

Economic consequences for Italian viewers

The consumer association estimates that a subscriber with a premium plan active since 2017 could claim a refund of around €500. Subscribers with a standard profile, on the other hand, would be entitled to a refund of close to €250.

Lawyers Paolo Fiorio and Corrado Pinna point out that "the decision affects millions of consumers".

The decision also requires the streaming platform to reduce its current prices in order to eliminate the impact of the increases deemed illegitimate.

Alessandro Mostaccio, president of Movimento Consumatori, announced that "if Netflix does not immediately reduce prices and reimburse customers, we will start a class action lawsuit to guarantee all users the restitution of what they have unduly paid".

The other cases in Europe

The Italian ruling fits into a wider European trend. Consumer groups including Germany's vzbv federation and Spain's FACUA have already challenged the same Netflix clauses in their respective countries.

German courts in Berlin and Cologne have ruled that price changes based on generic formulas are void because they do not allow users to understand the actual reasons for cost increases.

These decisions draw on European Directive 93/13/EEC, which protects consumers against unfair contract terms that create an excessive imbalance in favour of companies.

The cumulative effect is a regulatory shift across the continent, with streaming platforms increasingly required to seek explicit consent from subscribers rather than applying automatic price increases.

The position of the streaming platform

Netflix said it would appeal the ruling, defending its pricing practices over the past seven years in Italy as transparent and compliant with local regulations.

"We will appeal the decision. At Netflix, our subscribers come first. We take consumers' rights very seriously and we believe that our conditions have always been in line with Italian regulations and practices," the company said in a statement on Friday.

 

French ship crosses Strait of Hormuz in first Western European transit during Iran war

Cargo ships sail in the Arabian Gulf towards Strait of Hormuz in the UAE, 19 March 2026
Copyright AP Photo

By Quirino Mealha
Published on 

A vessel owned by France’s CMA CGM has become the first ship tied to Western Europe to cross the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, according to ship tracking data.

A container ship indicating French ownership by the shipping and logistics giant, CMA CGM, has reportedly become the first vessel with Western European ties to cross the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Iran war.

The Maltese-flagged CMA CGM Kribi, belonging to the world’s third-largest container line, sailed eastbound from waters off Dubai on Thursday afternoon.

Ship tracking data showed the vessel broadcasting its French ownership as it transited the Iranian coastline, navigating the approved corridor between the islands of Qeshm and Larak.

The ship had remained idle in the Gulf since early March, like many other non-Iranian vessels, after the conflict sharply curtailed commercial traffic.

CMA CGM, majority-owned by the Saade family, is understood to have coordinated the transit with Iranian maritime authorities.

The vessel is believed to be heading toward Pointe Noire in the Republic of Congo as part of a service linking India, the Middle East Gulf and Africa. Its passage follows earlier successful transits by Chinese-linked ships.

The news could encourage other carriers to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days.

Iran in talks with Oman

On Thursday, Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi also announced that the country is drafting a protocol with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state media.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are allegedly seeking to charge tolls starting at $1 per barrel and considering payment settlements in either Chinese yuan or stablecoins.

There are purportedly discussions about requiring ships to submit detailed data to IRGC-linked intermediaries for approval, with access determined by a country ranking system.

LNG tanker attempts first transit

In another development, an LNG tanker has entered the Strait of Hormuz in what would be the first transit of its kind since the conflict began.

The Sohar LNG vessel, which is not carrying cargo, changed course toward the Qalhat LNG export terminal in Oman and began moving eastward through the waterway on Thursday, according to ship tracking data.

If completed successfully, the passage would represent the first LNG tanker movement since the war started.

The attempt highlights the gradual return of different vessel types to the region.

While container ships have led recent test transits, energy carriers such as tankers and gas vessels had largely avoided the maritime chokepoint because of heightened risks and the suspension of standard insurance coverage.