By Peter Hannam October 14, 2020 —
Global greenhouse gas emissions have dived at a faster rate than any time since records began as the coronavirus crushes demand for travel and other energy uses, a team of international researchers has found.
In the first six months of 2020, emissions fell 1.551 billion tonnes – or roughly the equivalent of three times Australia's annual carbon release, according to scientists, based in nations from China to the US and Germany, who published their results in Nature Communications journal on Thursday.
Aircraft emissions have dived as aeroplanes have been grounded all over the world. Pictured here are planes at a storage facility in Alice Springs.CREDIT:GETTY IMAGES
The drop of 8.8 per cent, compared with a year earlier, was steeper than during the global financial crisis that began in 2008, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the 1979 oil crisis and even world wars.
The largest monthly decline in the period came in April as the global pandemic's first wave swept through the largest European and US economies and prior to China's subsequent rebound in post COVID-19 activity.
Daily emissions – extrapolated from data such as electricity generation in 31 countries, vehicle traffic in more than 400 cities, and industrial output in 62 nations – were down 16.9 per cent versus April 2019, the researchers said.
Among the main sectors, transport recorded the biggest slump in emissions as lockdowns restricted the movement of people, sliding 40 per cent. Within that group, aviation emissions plunged almost 44 per cent, a rate that has accelerated slightly into July.
The estimates came a day after the International Energy Agency predicted full-year emissions for 2020 would be about 7 per cent lower than in 2019. The decline in fossil-fuel use has also been compounded by the relentless fall in renewable energy prices, particularly solar.
During the first half of the year, emissions in the US were down 13.3 per cent, the European Union and the United Kingdom fell 12.7 per cent.
Those in India were down 15.4 per cent while those in China – where the coronavirus first emerged – only dropped 3.7 per cent as that nation's economy rebounded.
The researchers cautioned that the reduction would likely be temporary and only tiny compared with long-run increase in atmospheric concentrations of the carbon dioxide and other gases.
"While the CO2 drop is unprecedented, decreases of human activities cannot be the answer," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and one of the report's author.
“Instead we need structural and transformational changes in our energy production and consumption systems," Professor Schellnhuber said.
"Individual behaviour is certainly important, but what we really need to focus on is reducing the carbon intensity of our global economy.”
Data gathered by Ndevr Environmental, a consultancy, estimated Australia's emissions from petrol in the January-June period sank 15 per cent to 13.1 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent and those of aviation by 44 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes.
"What is really concerning in the report is the strong rebound effect due to a lack of structural change," Richie Merzian, Climate & Energy Program Director at The Australia Institute, said.
"That is especially the case in Australia given there isn’t a single, not even one, national policy to cut transport pollution."
Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, said dust, smoke and other environmental issues were being tracked and reported on using satellites and other technology, but not greenhouse gases until lately.
"Having a more real time system provides stronger and immediate feedback to society and governments on the evolution of our carbon emissions and the sectors contributing the most or being affected the most by intentional namely, climate mitigation) or unintentional (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) changes in the energy system," Dr Canadell said.
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