Study shows that realistic models could make for more environmental wins


Researchers say scientific models meant to improve the environment and marine fisheries that consider real-world variables -- such as the availability of materials -- the win-win potential of these plans could increase. Photo by dimitrisvetsikas1969/Pixabay


March 24 (UPI) -- Environmental "win-wins" are ideal outcomes -- such as increasing a shrimp catches in ways that also have environmental sustainability by limiting adverse environmental impacts -- are harder to come by than thought, according to new research.

The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder found in a study published Thursday in the journal Nature Sustainability that incorporating real-world complexity -- including communication and compromise -- into outcome models may increase the environmental success of such plans.

"We used math to show real-world complexity makes win-wins harder to achieve," lead study author Margaret Hagwood said in a press release.

"Allowing scientists and stakeholders to compromise and aim for more achievable, realistic goals about environmental impact, food production, biodiversity, economic yield, etc," said Hagwood, a graduate student at CU Boulder.

The CIRES team analyzed 280 previous trade-off models and also created algorithms to show what happened when more variables were added in.

"At its core, it's a study about how to bridge a communication divide," said study co-author Ryan Langendorf.

Langendorf, a CIRES and CU Boulder Environmental Studies postdoctoral researcher, said adjusting goals to be more realistic helps to potentially create more ideal win-win environmental outcomes.

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The CIRES study should help environmental modelers and managers to better communicate, according to Matthew Burgess, CIRES Fellow and assistant professor of Environmental Studies and Economics at CU Boulder.

"If a win-win means a community needs certain resources they can't afford, they will never reach an ideal outcome," Hagwood said.

"By identifying these barriers and minimizing them with proactive policies or technological advancements, you make the win-win more attainable," she said.