Scientists find key to predicting El Niño 12 months ahead

Scientists have identified the conditions that make it possible to predict some El Niño and La Niña events up to a year in advance, potentially giving communities and decisionmakers significantly more time to prepare for weather extremes.

University of Melbourne

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Scientists have identified the conditions that make it possible to predict some El Niño and La Niña events up to a year in advance, potentially giving communities and decision-makers significantly more time to prepare for weather extremes. 

The research published today in Science Advances has found that the state of the Pacific Ocean at the beginning of a forecast plays a critical, and often overlooked, role in determining whether long-range predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be accurate. 

ENSO events, which include El Niño and La Niña phases, influence weather patterns around the globe. While these events typically peak around December and can usually be forecast with confidence around six months in advance, predicting them earlier has long been a challenge.  

Australian scientists at CSIRO and the University of Melbourne analysed more than 7,500 historical ENSO forecasts from climate models developed in nine countries and found that knowing whether the Pacific is in an El Niño, La Niña or neutral state when a forecast is started can provide valuable clues about how reliable a forecast is likely to be one year later. 

The study found that forecasts initiated during La Niña conditions consistently performed well even when predicting ENSO events a year ahead, while forecasts beginning from neutral conditions were far less reliable. 

Co-author Dr Mandy Freund from the University of Melbourne and researcher with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, said the findings provide a new way to assess confidence in long-range climate forecasts. 

"Our study identifies valuable additional information for predicting El Niño and La Niña events well ahead of time," Dr Freund said. 

"The finding that one-year forecasts starting from La Niña perform well in all nine of the models tested suggests there is something about La Niña conditions that makes the tropical Pacific system more predictable over the following year." 

Lead author Dr Nandini Ramesh, Senior Research Scientist at CSIRO and Adjunct Research Fellow at UNSW Sydney, said the research could help improve how early warnings are communicated. 

"We've known for some time that the starting conditions affect how well model forecasts perform, but our study really shows how drastic those differences in performance can be," Dr Ramesh said. 

"The exciting thing about our results is that we can use that information. We can identify which forecasts deserve greater confidence and potentially warn the public about El Niño events much earlier." 

The researchers also found that different forecasting approaches may be suited to different climate conditions. While traditional physics-based models struggled when forecasts began from neutral conditions, machine learning and statistical models may have potential to improve performance in these situations. 

The findings highlight opportunities to strengthen early-warning systems, although further research is needed before the approach can be incorporated into operational forecasting systems. 

“We are still a few steps away from applying our findings to the models used in practice by forecasting agencies," Dr Ramesh said, “but these results hold promise for being able to communicate early warnings for future events.” 

The research offers new insights into the drivers of ENSO predictability and could ultimately help improve preparedness for droughts, floods and other climate impacts associated with El Niño and La Niña events. 

 

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Journal

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.aeg8654

Method of Research

Meta-analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Using initial states to identify successful El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasts 1 year in advance

Article Publication Date

23-Oct-2026

 

An ancient virus in chimpanzee DNA switches off a gene that is active in humans

Lund University

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Johan Jakobsson, Professor of Molecular Neurogenetics at Lund University

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Credit: Tove Smeds

Pandemics can arise wherever animal or human populations are sufficiently large, and they are not confined to the modern age. Johan Jakobsson, Professor of Molecular Neurogenetics at Lund University, believes that the findings from the new study are highly relevant: they show that a virus can cause a DNA sequence to change across an entire population. 

“The virus we investigated specifically affected chimpanzees. Yet humans and chimpanzees have largely the same genetic makeup. That is why it is important to understand the differences in how genes are regulated. Our findings suggest that one gene, LINC00662, plays a significant role in early human brain development,” says Johan Jakobsson. 

This, Jakobsson adds, helps our understanding of how gene regulation can protect or cause damage to, for example, the brain. In the new study, published in Science Advances, the researchers have discovered that an ancient viral remnant in the chimpanzee genome silences the LINC00662 gene. The same gene, meanwhile, is active in humans and plays an important role in our early brain development. The viral remnant belongs to a so-called endogenous retrovirus, PTERV1 – a virus that infected the chimpanzee population millions of years ago. The PTERV1 virus’s genetic material remained in the genome and has since been passed down through the generations.  

The researchers observed that PTERV1 replicated itself in many locations within the chimpanzee’s DNA and that these viral sequences are systematically silenced through a process known as methylation – a mechanism that determines which genes are active or inactive. 

To investigate how the viral remnant affects brain development, the researchers used human and chimpanzee stem cells to create brain organoids. These three-dimensional miniature organs resemble real brain tissue and can display certain characteristics of early brain development. A comparison of the organoids showed that the LINC00662 gene was active in the human models but completely silenced in the chimpanzee models. 

“The gene was strongly expressed in the human organoids, but not at all in the chimpanzee organoids,” says Patricia Gerdes, postdoc in molecular neurogenetics at Lund University. 

To test whether the viral remnant was responsible, the researchers used the CRISPR-Cas9 gene-editing tool to remove the viral DNA sequence from chimpanzee cells. Once the viral remnant had been removed, the gene was expressed again. 

“This shows that it is in fact the viral insertion that is responsible for the gene being switched off in chimpanzees,” says Patricia Gerdes. 

The researchers also investigated the gene’s apparent function in humans. When they used CRISPR to silence LINC00662 in human brain organoids, this reduced the activity of genes involved in nerve-cell development and in the formation of connections between nerve cells. 

The findings reinforce the view that humans and our closest relatives differ not only in which genes are present, but also in which genes are active. The researchers will next investigate whether other viral remnants may have had similar effects during the evolution of the brain and whether this type of DNA sequence is also linked to brain diseases. 

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Journal

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.aeg5791

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Cells

Article Title

Retroviral insertions contributed to the divergence of human and chimpanzee brains

Article Publication Date

23-Oct-2026

 

New sediment core analysis sheds light on 13,000-year-old ‘cold case’

University of South Carolina

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COLUMBIA, S.C. – A new study led by an international research team including scientists at the University of South Carolina challenges the idea that the ancient Laacher See volcanic eruption in western Europe triggered a significant climate-cooling period affecting central Europe and the Arctic nearly 13,000 years ago. Their work expands the European archive for testing theories on what caused the millennium-long cooling event, known as the Younger Dryas.

An analysis of a new sediment core collected in southern Sweden revealed a Younger Dryas Boundary (YDB) layer containing tiny melted particles called microspherules and platinum-rich nanoparticles that the researchers interpret as possible evidence of an extraterrestrial event. Older, deeper layers contain volcanic ash from the Laacher See eruption, deposited about 150 years earlier. The younger microspherule-rich layer lies immediately below sediments showing a shift to colder, wetter conditions at the beginning of the Younger Dryas.

Microscopic and chemical analyses indicate that most of the melted particles formed from material on Earth, while some of the platinum-rich nanoparticles have chemical ratios that overlap with those found in some meteorites and other extraterrestrial material. Researchers also found that the amounts of several elements carried by nanoparticles were roughly five to ten times higher in the YDB layer than in surrounding sediments. This pattern was not found in the older volcanic ash and is consistent with fallout from a possible extraterrestrial impact or atmospheric airburst.

The finding is consistent with reports from numerous other Younger Dryas Boundary sites across the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Middle East, where researchers have identified unusual platinum enrichments and microscopic melted particles in sediments of similar age. These findings have been cited in support of the Younger Dryas extraterrestrial impact hypothesis, although scientists continue to debate their origin and whether such an event contributed to the cooling.

“This demonstrates that the volcanic eruption and the Younger Dryas Boundary were separate events,” says study lead author and USC Research Professor Christopher Moore. “At our site in southern Sweden, we identified this boundary layer through tiny, melted particles called microspherules and unusually high concentrations of platinum-group elements. This layer is followed almost immediately by evidence for a sudden shift to colder and wetter conditions. This is important because it helps separate three events that have often been discussed together: the Laacher See eruption, deposition of the Younger Dryas Boundary layer and the beginning of Younger Dryas cooling.”

Although the Laacher See eruption may have caused some short-term atmospheric cooling in Europe, its timing makes it unlikely to have been the primary driver of Younger Dryas cooling. Large volcanic eruptions commonly cause brief periods of cooling, rather than the more than 1,000 years of near-glacial conditions experienced across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the Younger Dryas.

The researchers favor an extraterrestrial impact or atmospheric airburst as a possible trigger for Younger Dryas cooling, although another volcanic eruption around the same time cannot be ruled out. It is also possible that volcanic activity and an extraterrestrial event occurred together. However, no distinct volcanic ash layer has been identified in the Swedish core at the Younger Dryas Boundary, although ash from an eruption elsewhere might not have reached or been preserved at the site.

Published Sept. 30 in ScienceOpen Research, the study adds new evidence about the timing of events surrounding the Younger Dryas. By identifying the volcanic ash, the younger particle-rich layer and the subsequent environmental change in the same core, researchers can distinguish events that have sometimes been linked.

Other proposed explanations for the Younger Dryas include large releases of glacial meltwater that may have disrupted Atlantic Ocean circulation. The Swedish core clarifies the order of events in southern Scandinavia, but it does not establish what caused the cooling.

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Journal

ScienceOpen Research

DOI

10.14293/S2199-1006.1.SOR.2026.0004.v1

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Stratigraphic separation of Laacher See Tephra and a discrete Younger Dryas Boundary fallout layer in southernmost Sweden

 

Ancient human DNA reveals hidden connections across Ice Age Europe

New genomic data show long-distance population contacts alongside thousands of years of regional continuity

University of Vienna

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Cave of Isturitz, the cavity in which the bone of a Gravettian woman was found.

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Credit: Severine Dabadie

More than 30,000 years ago, people associated with one of Europe’s major Palaeolithic cultures (the Gravettian) were more interconnected than previously thought. An international research team led by the University of Vienna has uncovered new genetic evidence of long-distance connections between these populations. Published in Science Advances, the study combines genomic data from rare human remains with human DNA preserved in cave sediments.

The Gravettian culture was widespread across Europe around 34,000 to 25,000 years ago. While archaeological finds have long suggested extensive contacts across the continent, genetic data pointed to relatively stable eastern and western ancestry groups. By analysing new and previously published genomic data alongside human DNA from cave sediments, the researchers found evidence of east-west genetic exchange and long-term population continuity in southwestern Europe.

A woman's genome links east and west 

The remains of a woman from Isturitz Cave in southwestern France, who lived around 30,000 years ago, yielded the oldest to date genome-wide dataset of a modern human from southwestern Europe. Her genetic data provide key evidence of east-west exchange: most of her ancestry was related to the western European lineage, but she also carried ancestry related to populations from central and eastern Europe. Genetic modelling dates this gene flow to around 32,500 to 31,500 years ago. "Our results show that eastern and western European populations were not as genetically isolated as previously assumed," says first author Pere Gelabert, Department of Evolutionary Anthropology at the University of Vienna. "Gene flow across such large distances adds a new dimension to our understanding of how Gravettian populations were connected." A similar signal was found in a previously studied individual from Ormesson, France. Together with archaeological evidence, the new findings also support the idea that Isturitz may have been a meeting place for different groups.

Human DNA from cave sediment 

At the same time, the researchers found evidence for long-term population continuity in southwestern Europe. Genomic data from Chufín Cave in northern Spain indicate that western European ancestry persisted in the region over thousands of years. The team also analysed ancient human DNA preserved directly in cave sediment. At El Mirón Cave in Cantabria, they recovered enough human nuclear DNA from a 22,000-year-old layer to determine its genetic ancestry – despite the absence of human bones or teeth. "Sedimentary DNA allows us to recover genetic information from periods where human remains are missing," says senior author Ron Pinhasi, Department of Evolutionary Anthropology at the University of Vienna, whose team led this study. "This gives us a way to connect archaeological layers with the genetic ancestry of the people who occupied a site." The El Mirón DNA shows that this ancestry persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum, supporting the idea of the Iberian Peninsula as an Ice Age refuge.

What mother and son reveal about mating

In southern Italy, the team analysed Ostuni1b, a male fetus and most likely the son of the previously studied woman Ostuni1. His father probably came from the same genetic population, yet the parents were not closely related – suggesting mating practices that helped avoid high levels of inbreeding. Together, the findings show that regional population continuity could coexist with genetic exchange over large distances. Gelabert's team is now combining sedimentary DNA with advanced proteomic analyses to investigate the first trans-European expansions of modern humans and their interactions with carnivores where organic remains are scarce.

Summary:

• New genomic data reveal previously undetected genetic connections between eastern and western Gravettian populations in southwestern Europe.
• Genetic modelling dates this gene flow to around 32,500–31,500 years ago.
• Human DNA recovered directly from cave sediment traces long-term population continuity even where skeletal remains are missing.
• Genetic data from a mother and her son provide clues to population stability and mating practices in Gravettian Italy.

About the University of Vienna: 

For over 650 years the University of Vienna has stood for education, research and innovation. Today, it is ranked among the top 100 and thus the top four per cent of all universities worldwide and is globally connected. With degree programmes covering 188 disciplines, and approximately 11,000 employees, we are one of the largest academic institutions in Europe. Here, people from a broad spectrum of disciplines come together to carry out research at the highest level and develop solutions for current and future challenges. Its students and graduates develop reflected and sustainable solutions to complex challenges using innovative spirit and curiosity.

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Journal

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.aeh6128

Article Title

Early Gravettian genomic data from Western Europe reveal population movements before the LGM

Article Publication Date

23-Oct-2026

US drinking water could contain double the reported PFAS levels, model estimates

Cell Press

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Common ways of reporting perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)—the man-made, so-called forever chemicals that pose environmental and health threats—could underestimate the concentration of PFAS in United States drinking water by as much as half, finds a study publishing October 23 in the Cell Press journal Cell Reports Sustainability. Using a model based on data from across the country, the researchers estimate that by counting PFAS levels that fall below minimum reporting levels as zero, current reports capture only 44% of the average concentration of 25 PFAS in community water systems. 

“When the levels of these chemicals are below our reporting limit, it’s often treated as zero when we calculate how widespread they are,” says Gehendra Kharel, first author of the study at Texas Christian University in Fort Worth. “We set out to understand how treating those results as zero changes the picture of PFAS occurrence in drinking water.”  

Under the Safe Drinking Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires public water systems to monitor the levels of 29 PFAS in drinking water. These chemicals can persist in the environment over a long time, and previous research has linked PFAS exposure to many health issues, including cancer, liver damage, and developmental problems in children.  

In January 2026, the EPA published a near-complete release of monitoring data from water systems across the country. While an analysis by the Environmental Working Group suggests that some 176 million Americans use water from systems where at least one type of PFAS was detected, most individual PFAS test results in the dataset fall below the EPA’s minimum reporting levels (MRLs) and thus are recorded as “<MRL.” 

The MRL generally means a concentration that most laboratories can reliably measure and report, but it doesn’t suggest that the water tested is PFAS-free or that it’s safe, Kharel says. But these data points are often treated as zero when agencies and researchers summarize average PFAS levels in drinking water.  

To investigate the PFAS values below the MRL, Kharel’s team analyzed more than 1.8 million PFAS measurement records in the national dataset published by the EPA. They found that 98% of PFAS test results were below the MRL. 

Using computer models based on the dataset, the researchers then estimated possible concentrations for PFAS records listed as “<MRL.” The models generated 500 estimates of what each below-limit value could be. The team then averaged those estimates to come up with a best prediction. They performed this calculation for all 25 PFAS that had been detected at least once in the EPA’s dataset. 

They found that treating below-limit results as zero captured only 44% of the average concentration of the 25 PFAS that the models estimated across 9,991 community water systems. The typical reports left out more than half of the estimated total.  

The EPA has set legally enforceable limits covering six PFAS in drinking water, including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), that have been linked to serious health problems. When counting below-limit results as zero, the national average concentration is about 2.6 nanograms per liter in drinking water for the six chemicals. But the team’s model estimates that, in reality, the average could be 5.2 nanograms per liter 

“Our study only examines how PFAS measurements are summarized,” says Kharel. “It does not establish that every below-limit result poses a health risk.” 

Although these values are model-generated predictions rather than measurements of actual concentrations below reporting limits, Kharel says the findings could help provide a more complete picture of PFAS levels in US drinking water and improve how environmental monitoring data are interpreted. 

“When a water quality report says ‘not detected,’ that means below the reporting limit, not zero,” says Kharel. “Our method gives water agencies and utilities a way to account for that difference, so they can see where more testing would help and be clearer about what they do and do not know.” 

### 

This work was supported by seed funding from the Natural Resource Research Initiative at Texas Christian University. 

Cell Reports Sustainability, Kharel et al., “Censoring-aware models quantify systematic underestimation of PFAS occurrence in US drinking-water monitoring” https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/fulltext/S2949-7906(26)00262-4

Cell Reports Sustainability (@CellRepSustain), published by Cell Press, is a monthly gold open access journal that publishes high-quality research and discussion that contribute to understanding and responding to environmental, social-ecological, technological, and energy- and health-related challenges. Visit https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/home. To receive Cell Press media alerts, contact press@cell.com. 

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Journal

Cell Reports Sustainability

DOI

10.1016/j.crsus.2026.100893

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Censoring-Aware Models Quantify Systematic Underestimation of PFAS Occurrence in U.S. Drinking-Water Monitoring

Article Publication Date

23-Oct-2026

 

US–Mexico border counties face high kidney disease–related mortality and low nephrologist availability

American Society of Nephrology

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Denver, CO (October 23, 2026) — New research indicates that US-Mexico border counties experience disproportionately elevated rates of death from chronic kidney disease (CKD), alongside reduced availability of nephrologists. The findings will be presented at ASN Kidney Week 2026 October 22–25.

When investigators analyzed data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, they found that between 1999 and 2022, CKD-related mortality in US-Mexico border counties increased from 48.2 to 81.4 deaths per 100,000 population, rising approximately 2.7% per year. Over the same period, mortality in non-border counties increased from 35.1 to 54.4 deaths per 100,000, at approximately 1.3% per year—roughly half the annual pace observed along the border.

There was also a consistent association between nephrology workforce availability and CKD-related mortality. Counties with the lowest nephrologist density had substantially higher mortality than those with the greatest workforce availability (91.4 versus 52.8 deaths per 100,000). Each decrease of one nephrologist per 100,000 population was associated with approximately 7% higher CKD-related mortality after adjusting for diabetes, obesity, poverty, uninsured status, rurality, hospital access, and demographic factors.

“Our findings suggest that the US–Mexico border is experiencing a growing kidney health disparity that parallels major geographic differences in access to nephrology care,” said corresponding author Sofia Yamada, MD, of the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley School of Medicine. “Border counties, many of which are predominantly Hispanic and medically underserved, experienced a substantially faster rise in CKD mortality than non-border comparison counties.

Yamada noted that although the county-level ecological analysis cannot establish that workforce shortages cause higher mortality, the association persisted after adjusting for multiple clinical, socioeconomic, and healthcare-access factors and raises an important concern. “Where nephrologists practice may matter profoundly for kidney health equity. Communities carrying some of the greatest burden of kidney disease may also have the least access to the specialized care needed to prevent its progression and complications,” she said. “We hope this work encourages policymakers, health systems, and the kidney community to consider the geographic distribution of the nephrology workforce as an important component of efforts to achieve kidney health equity.”

Study: “America's Forgotten Border Crisis: Nephrology Workforce Shortages and Escalating CKD Mortality Disparities Along the US-Mexico Border, 1999-2022”

About ASN Kidney Week

Join ASN and more than 12,000 other kidney professionals from across the globe at ASN Kidney Week 2026 in Denver, CO. The world's premier nephrology meeting, Kidney Week, provides participants with exciting and challenging opportunities to exchange knowledge, learn the latest scientific and medical advances, and listen to engaging and provocative discussions with leading experts in the field. Early programs begin on October 21, followed by the Annual Meeting from October 22-25. Follow the conversation at #KidneyWk.

About ASN
Since 1966, ASN has been leading the fight to prevent, treat, and cure kidney diseases throughout the world by educating health professionals and scientists, advancing research and innovation, communicating new knowledge and advocating for the highest quality care for patients. ASN has more than 20,000 members representing 138 countries. For more information, visit www.asn- online.org and follow us on Facebook, X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Threads, and Bluesky.

 

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